Archive for October 2012

Top IDF official: International sanctions on Iran hurt arms flow to Hezbollah

October 29, 2012

Top IDF official: International sanctions on Iran hurt arms flow to Hezbollah – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

Speaking to the Associated Press on condition of anonymity, Israeli military source says that, despite cutbacks, Lebanese militant group still in possession of extensive, advanced arsenal.

 

By and | Oct.29, 2012 | 4:54 PM

 

 

Hezbollah supporters in Beirut, August 17, 2012.

Hezbollah supporters carry pictures of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right, disappeared Imam Moussa al-Sadr, center, and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, left, in Beirut, August 17, 2012. Photo by AP

 

A top Israeli military official said on Monday that international sanctions against Iran are cutting its flow of aid and weapons to anti-Israel Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.

Even so, he says the Lebanese guerrilla group remains a potent force with an arsenal far larger and of higher quality than it possessed during a month-long war against Israel in 2006.

The official said Hezbollah possessed tens of thousands of rockets and missiles capable of striking deep inside Israel.

Israel has expressed concerns that Syria’s chemical weapons might fall into the hands of Hezbollah as the Syrian civil war deepens. The official said for now, the Syrian government appears to be maintaining control over its chemical weapons arsenals.

The official spoke on condition of anonymity under military rules.

Alluding earlier Monday to military ties between Iran and Hezbollah, an Iranian lawmaker said that Tehran was in possession of pictures of Israeli bases and other restricted areas obtained from a drone that breached Israeli airspace earlier this month and which the Lebanese militant group alleged to have launched.

Earlier this month, the Israel Defense Forces shot down a drone after it flew 55 km into Israel. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the aircraft, saying its parts had been manufactured in Iran and assembled in Lebanon.

The drone transmitted pictures of Israel’s “sensitive bases” before it was shot down, said Esmail Kowsari, chair of parliament’s defense committee, according to Iran’s Mehr news agency. He was speaking to Iran’s Arabic-language Al-Alam, Mehr reported on Monday.

“These aircrafts transmit their pictures online, and right now we possess pictures of restricted areas,” Kowsari was quoted as saying.

Israeli air space is closely monitored by the military and, except for commercial air corridors, is restricted, with special attention paid to numerous military and security installations.

Israeli threats to bomb Iranian nuclear sites if diplomacy and sanctions fail to stop Tehran’s nuclear program are a flashpoint for tensions in the Middle East. The West suspects the program is designed to develop a nuclear weapons capability, something Tehran steadfastly denies.

Iran’s military regularly announces defense and engineering developments though some analysts are skeptical of the reliability of such reports.

On Sunday, Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said the downed drone did not represent Iran’s latest know-how in drone technology, according to Mehr.

In April, Iran announced it had started to build a copy of a U.S. surveillance drone, the RQ-170 Sentinel, captured last year after it came down near the Afghan border.

Israel used Sudan bombing as ‘dry run’ for attack on Iran, British newspaper claims

October 29, 2012

Israel used Sudan bombing as ‘dry run’ for attack on Iran, British newspaper claims | The Times of Israel.

‘This was only a fraction of what the Iranians can expect in the countdown to the spring,’ Israeli defense source tells Sunday Times

October 29, 2012, 1:09 pm 5
Illustrative photo of IAF F-15I fighter jets being refueled by a Boeing 707, during an air show at the graduation ceremony of Israeli pilots at the Hatzerim air force base in the Negev desert, on Thursday, June 28, 2012 (photo credit: Tsafrir Abayov/Flash90)

Illustrative photo of IAF F-15I fighter jets being refueled by a Boeing 707, during an air show at the graduation ceremony of Israeli pilots at the Hatzerim air force base in the Negev desert, on Thursday, June 28, 2012 (photo credit: Tsafrir Abayov/Flash90)

An Israel airstrike was behind the explosion last Wednesday at a Sudanese weapons factory, and that attack was a “dry run for a forthcoming attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities,” according to a weekend report in the Sunday Times of London, which also implied the seeds of the attack were planted in the 2010 alleged Mossad assassination of Hamas operative Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in Dubai.

Citing anonymous Israeli and western defense sources, the British newspaper alleged that an IAF force consisting of eight fighters, two helicopters and a refueling plane were used in the attack on the weapons factory near Khartoum. The force flew down the Red Sea, avoiding Egyptian air defense, and used electronic countermeasures to prevent detection while over Sudanese territory.

Four fighters made the bombing run, the other four were used for air cover, and the helicopters, which carried 10 commandos each, were in reserve in case a rescue operation was needed to recover a downed pilot.

“This was a show of force, but it was only a fraction of our capability — and of what the Iranians can expect in the countdown to the spring,” an Israeli defense source was quoted as telling the Sunday Times.

Israeli officials have neither confirmed nor denied striking the site. Instead, they accused Sudan of playing a role in an Iranian-backed network of arms shipments to Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel believes Sudan is a key transit point in the circuitous route that weapons take to the Islamic militant groups in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon.

The Sudanese government last Wednesday immediately pointed the finger at Israel for the fire at the Yarmouk Complex that killed two people, and said that four Israeli aircraft bombed the factory.

On Saturday, furthermore, Khartoum claimed it had proof of Israeli involvement. Sudan says 60 percent of the factory was completely destroyed in the attack, and the rest badly damaged.

Sudanese officials said the government has the right to respond to what the information minister said was a “flagrant attack” by Israel on Sudan’s sovereignty, and the right to strengthen its military capabilities.

An American monitoring group said on Saturday that satellite images of the aftermath of the Wednesday explosion suggested the site was hit by an airstrike. The images released by the Satellite Sentinel Project to the Associated Press showed six 52-foot (16-meter) wide craters at the compound.

Military experts consulted by the project found the craters to be “consistent with large impact craters created by air-delivered munitions,” Satellite Sentinel Project spokesman Jonathan Hutson said.

The Yarmouk military complex in Khartoum, Sudan seen in a satellite image made on October 12 2012, after to the alleged attack. (photo credit: AP/DigitalGlobe via Satellite Sentinel Project)

The target may have been around 40 shipping containers seen at the site in earlier images, the group said. It said the craters center on the area where the containers had been stacked.

Sudan was a major hub for al-Qaeda militants and remains a transit for weapon smugglers and African migrant traffickers. Israeli officials believe arms that originate in the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas go through Sudan before crossing Egypt’s lawless Sinai desert and into Gaza through underground tunnels.

According to the Sunday Times, in 2010 when Mossad agents assassinated Hamas arms procurer al-Mabhouh in Dubai, they found a copy of a 2008 defense agreement between Iran and Sudan.

The agreement allowed Iran to build weapons in Sudan under Iranian supervision. The Times wrote that the “Israelis discovered later that a large contingent of Iranian technicians had been sent to the Yarmouk factory… the Iranians were building advanced Shahab ballistic missiles and rockets at a plant in the factory compound.”

These missiles were seen as “a direct threat,” according to an Israeli security expert quoted by the Times.

Opened in 1996, the Yarmouk factory is one of two known state-owned weapons manufacturing plants in the Sudanese capital. Sudan prided itself on having a way to produce its own ammunition and weapons despite United Nations and US sanctions.

The satellite images indicate that the Yarmouk facility includes an oil storage facility, a military depot and an ammunition plant.

The monitoring group said the images indicate that the blast “destroyed two buildings and heavily damaged at least 21 others,” adding that there was no indication of fire damage at the fuel depot inside the military complex.

The group said it could not be certain the containers, seen in images taken Oct. 12, were still there when explosion took place. But the effects of the blast suggested a “highly volatile cargo” was at the epicenter of the explosion.

“If the explosions resulted from a rocket or missile attack against material stored in the shipping containers, then it was an effective surgical strike that totally destroyed any container” that was at the location, the project said.

A witness told the project that three planes were seen “flying fast around southern Khartoum, to the northwest and northeast,” while a fourth larger plane flew toward the northeast at a higher altitude.

Yarmouk is located in a densely populated residential area of the city approximately 11 kilometers (seven miles) southwest of the Khartoum International Airport.

Wednesday’s blast sent exploding ammunition flying into homes in the neighborhood adjacent to the factory, causing panic among residents. Sudanese officials said some people suffered from smoke inhalation.

A man who lives near the factory said that, from inside their house, he and his brother heard a loud roar — what they believed was a plane — just before the boom of the explosion sounded from the factory.

Also on Saturday, a report in the Examiner quoted an “Israeli counterterrorism source” saying Israel bombed the Sudanese munitions plant, which has also produced chemical weapons.

The Examiner’s source claimed that “the Israeli government reported to news reporters that four Israeli military planes attacked and destroyed the arms factory in Khartoum.”

Contrary to the Examiner report, Jerusalem has been tight-lipped since Khartoum. Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday had no comment about the incident. Defense Minister Ehud Barak told Channel 2 there was “nothing to say” about the subject.

The Examiner’s source reiterated the charge made in the Israeli press and by the Sunday Times that Sudanese-made arms funded by Iran make their way to Hamas and Hezbollah armories. The article claimed that Iran pays Bedouin to smuggle Sudanese arms from the Red Sea coast across Sinai to the Gaza Strip.

According to the Examiner’s Israeli source, “hundreds of rockets (mostly with ranges of 20-40 kilometers), about 1,000 mortar shells, dozens of individual anti-tank missiles, and tons of explosives and explosives-making materials have been smuggled” via Sinai to the Gaza Strip.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tehran claims it received photographs of restricted Israeli areas from downed drone

October 29, 2012

Tehran claims it received photographs of restricted Israeli areas from downed drone | The Times of Israel.

( If so, why not publish some of the pics? – JW )

Israel has dismissed Iran’s repeated assertions that UAV was able transmit pictures in real time

October 29, 2012, 11:51 am 2
Israeli Army vehicles and helicopters are seen in an open area as they search for the remains of a drone in the Negev southern Israel on October 6, 2012. (photo credit: AP)

Israeli Army vehicles and helicopters are seen in an open area as they search for the remains of a drone in the Negev southern Israel on October 6, 2012. (photo credit: AP)

Iran has in its possession photographs of restricted Israeli military bases, thanks to the drone that Israel destroyed over the northern Negev in early October, an Iranian parliamentarian claimed Monday.

Defense committee chairman Esmail Kowsari said the drone, likely launched by Hezbollah from Lebanon, took pictures of sensitive areas before being shot down over the Yatir forest, Iran’s Mehr news reported, citing an interview with the Al-Alam news outlet.

Israeli officials have said the drone was rudimentary and could not transmit pictures in real time. The UAV was shot down after reportedly skirting Israel’s coast and moving inland over Gaza and southern Israel.

Iranians claim the drone was made with technology garnered from the downing of an American UAV over Iran last year, and could not only transmit pictures, but managed to fly over restricted airspace and photograph it.

“These aircraft transmit their pictures online, and right now we possess pictures of restricted areas,” Kowsari reportedly said.

On Sunday, Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said that the drone was not the most advanced unmanned aerial vehicle that Iran possesses.

The claim was dismissed by Jerusalem.

Brig. Gen. (res) Asaf Agmon, the managing director of the Fisher Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies, said that Iran could not have developed any new technology based on the downed American Sentinel UAV.

“There is no connection whatsoever between what fell over there and the technology they possess,” he said. “The two are as distant as east and west.”

Agmon, a former pilot and base commander, characterized Iran’s current UAV technology as on par “with the technology that existed during the late 1980s, at best.”

He dismissed out of hand the notion the notion that the UAV that penetrated Israeli airspace on October 6 had, as claimed, been able to send footage back to its senders.

“They didn’t get anything out of it. No information,” he said, noting that its flight course was determined in advance by a list of coordinates.

Other Israeli officials have also said the drone was too rudimentary to collect any intelligence unavailable on the Internet.

Report: Intel found on slain Hamas official led to Sudan strike

October 29, 2012

Israel Hayom | Report: Intel found on slain Hamas official led to Sudan strike.

U.K.’s Sunday Times cites military intelligence reports that Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, assassinated in Dubai, was in possession of an agreement between Iran and Sudan from 2008 that permitted Iran to manufacture weapons in Sudanese territory.

Yoav Limor and Israel Hayom Staff
Satellite imagery of the Yarmouk facility, before the bombing.

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Photo credit: AP

Israel Warning After Hamas Rocket Strikes

October 29, 2012

Israel Warning After Hamas Rocket Strikes – Yahoo! News UK.

 

  • Israel Warning After Hamas Rocket Strikes

 

Israeli aircraft have dropped leaflets on the Gaza Strip telling the enclave’s 1.7 million residents to stay away from militant groups – in what is being seen as a warning of widespread air strikes.

The move comes after Hamas fighters launched 25 missiles, among them rockets and mortars, into Israeli territory.

The tit-for-tat exchange has been continuous for almost a week. It was briefly suspended after the intervention of Egypt which pressurised the Islamists, who rule Gaza, to rein-in fighters who were targeting Israel following a barrage of more than 60 projectiles in 24 hours last week.

The latest round appears to have provoked Israel’s military hierarchy into considering wider retaliation.

Buildings housing Hamas security personnel and administration buildings have been targeted in the past by Israeli air strikes.

But military sources in Israel have indicated they are reluctant to get further embroiled in a conflict with Hamas.

They recall operation Cast Lead in 2008-9 in which 1,300 Gazans were reported to have been killed, drawing international criticism of Israel.

A senior military officer involved for many years with Gaza told Sky News he did not believe Hamas was intent on provoking a major conflict with Israel.

“They have internal problems with even more radical al Qaeda linked groups which carry out operations to make Hamas look weak.

“If you look closely at what Hamas has been targeting, and they now have accurate weapons from Iran, the missiles generally fall on unpopulated areas.

“They are telling the people of Gaza that they are still leading the resistance without provoking a counter attack from us,” said one senior Israeli officer.

Nevertheless, Israelis will go to the polls in a general election on January 22.

The incumbent prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, is trying to forge an alliance with the far-right wing Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman – and may feel that a large-scale military incursion into Gaza is an electoral necessity.

Mr Netanyahu’s Likud party is split over whether it should enter an alliance with Mr Lieberman, who favours the forcible transfer of some Israeli Arabs to Palestinian control as part of a future peace deal.

The latest round of violence in Gaza included Israeli air strikes on alleged Hamas training areas and a Hamas rocket launching team.

They are against a background of a potentially wider conflict with Iran.

Mr Netanyahu has warned that Iran will be capable of producing a nuclear weapon by the spring of next year – implying Israel and its allies have until then to launch military strikes to stop the programme.

Iran remains defiant. It has insisted it has no nuclear weapons ambitions but that it is closing the technology gap with its rivals.

Iran holds pictures of Israeli bases and other restricted areas obtained from a drone launched into Israeli airspace earlier this month, an Iranian lawmaker was quoted as saying on Monday.

Earlier this month, the Israel Defence Forces shot down a drone after it flew 25 miles (55km) into Israel. Lebanese militant group Hizbollah claimed responsibility for the aircraft, saying its parts had been manufactured in Iran and assembled in Lebanon.

The drone transmitted pictures of Israel’s “sensitive bases” before it was shot down, said Esmail Kowsari, chair of parliament’s defence committee, according to Iran’s Mehr news agency.

Report: CIA chief says US not involved in Khartoum attack

October 29, 2012

Report: CIA chief says US not involved in Khartoum attack – Israel News, Ynetnews.

( I guess Obama doesn’t want to seem “complicit” in this as well as a potential attack on Iran. – JW )

Sudanese paper says David Petraeus called Sudan officials shortly after attack on arms factory, denied reports indicating his country had early knowledge of ‘Israeli strike’

Roi Kais

Published: 10.29.12, 13:52 / Israel News

The closure of the US embassy in Khartoum, shortly after Sudan accused Israel of launching an attack on an arms factory, has raised speculation that the US knew the Jewish state was behind the strike and feared it would be targeted by angry protesters.

Despite this notion, a local Sudanese newspaper “al-Intiba” reported Monday that CIA Director David Petraeus called Sudanese deputy intelligence head Saleh A-Tayeb, shortly after the alleged Israeli attack in Khartoum.

Related stories:

In his call, Petraeus reportedly denied reports indicating that the US had early knowledge of the attack.

According to the report, the US tried to contact Sudan officials shortly after they had blamed Israel for the attack, and denied reports claiming it had assisted Israel in its strike.
האזור שהופצץ בחרטום (צילום: AP)

Explosion site in Khartoum (Photo: AP)

The Sudanese paper quoted an official as saying that the Americans are fearful for the safety of diplomats in Khartoum.

Accoding to the official, the US asked that Sudan guarantee the safety of American diplomats currently based in Khartoum.

The source further added that the Sudanese official explained Sudan’s position to Petraeus, adding that it bares the responsibility of protecting the foreign citizens residing in the African country.

However, he explained that despite the US’ denial of direct involvement in the attack, it could have applied pressure on Israel and prevented the Jewish state from taking certain steps.

The explosion in the Khartoum arms factory occurred last week. Shortly after the attack, a Sudanese minister said that the factory was attacked by four military planes.

Sudan, which analysts say is used as an arms smuggling route to the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip via neighboring Egypt, has blamed Israel for such strikes in the past but Israel has always either refused to comment or said it neither admitted or denied involvement.

‘Drone transmitted photos of ‘sensitive bases’ to Iran’

October 29, 2012

‘Drone transmitted photos of ‘se… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

By REUTERS
10/29/2012 10:12
Iranian lawmaker claims the Hezbollah UAV sent pictures of restricted IDF bases to Tehran before being shot down by Israel earlier this month; Iranian defense minister claims Tehran has more advanced drones.

IAF shoots down UAV that entered Israeli airspace

Photo: IDF Spokesman’s Office

DUBAI – Iran holds pictures of Israeli bases and other restricted areas obtained from a drone launched into Israeli airspace earlier this month, an Iranian lawmaker was quoted as saying on Monday.

Earlier this month, Israel shot down a drone after it flew 25 miles (55 km) into the Jewish state. Lebanese militant group Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the aircraft, saying its parts had been manufactured in Iran and assembled in Lebanon.

The drone transmitted pictures of Israel’s “sensitive bases” before it was shot down, said Esmail Kowsari, chair of parliament’s defense committee, according to Iran’s Mehr news agency. He was speaking to Iran’s Arabic-language Al-Alam, Mehr reported on Monday.

“These aircraft transmit their pictures online, and right now we possess pictures of restricted areas,” Kowsari was quoted as saying.

A report in The Sunday Times earlier this month claimed the drone transmitted pictures of sensitive military sites and Dimona.

Israeli air space is closely monitored by the military and, except for commercial air corridors, is restricted, with special attention paid to numerous military and security installations.

Israeli threats to bomb Iranian nuclear sites if diplomacy and sanctions fail to stop Tehran’s nuclear program are a flashpoint for tensions in the Middle East. The West suspects the program is designed to develop a nuclear weapons capability, something Tehran steadfastly denies.

Iran’s military regularly announces defense and engineering developments though some analysts are skeptical of the reliability of such reports.

On Sunday Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said the downed drone did not represent Iran’s latest know-how in drone technology, according to Mehr.

In April, Iran announced it had started to build a copy of a US surveillance drone, the RQ-170 Sentinel, captured last year after it came down near the Afghan border.

Israeli Design, Iranian Production?

October 29, 2012

Israeli Design, Iranian Production?.

A video aired on Iranian television shows the Islamic Republic’s new UAV, which is very similar to Elbit Systems’ Hermes 450
(Screen capture from Iranian TV)
(Screen capture from Iranian TV)

A video aired on Iranian television showed a UAV named Shahad-129. From its exterior, the UAV seems as a near-precise copy of the Israeli Hermes-450 UAV. The tube-shaped body and the V-shaped tail are also a near-precise replica of the UAV produced by Elbit Systems.

Iran claims that the UAV can be armed, making it an assault UAV, though the photos that were revealed did not show it while armed. Experts say that it appears as though Iran simply chose the most successful outer appearance of the Hermes-450. However, the capabilities of the UAV it is presenting remain unclear. In the past few years, the Iranian weapons industry has produced copies of various weapon systems via reverse engineering.

Thus far, the systems were primarily those that Iran possessed back from the time of the Shah, which underwent improvements. Now it seems that in the framework of the Iranian UAV production efforts, a decision was made to copy the Israeli UAV’s exterior.

The Israeli UAV has been sold to several countries and which also serves as the basis for the British Watchkeeper project intended for providing intelligence capabilities to the British Artillery Corps.

Iran develops Ababil-T – a 2,000-km range stealth attack drone

October 29, 2012

Iran develops Ababil-T – a 2,000-km range stealth attack drone.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 29, 2012, 9:57 AM (GMT+02:00)

 

An Ababil (Swallow) drone

Defense Minister Gen. Ahmad Vahidi warned Sunday, Oct. 28, in Tehran: “The drone was definitely not the latest Iranian technology.” debkafile: He was talking about the drone which Iran and Hizballah sent over Israeli airspace on Oct. 6 and stressing that it was not the last word in their UAV armory – or even the last to invade Israel’s skies.
According to our military sources, in mid-September, Tehran secretly shipped to Lebanon a batch of dismantled Ababil-T UAVs although the Iranians could not be sure that Israel would not discover their location and its air force bomb them before they were launched. The Syrian war is also making it hard to maintain permanent Iranian launching teams in Lebanon.
However, Iran is making great strides in producing drones with more capabilities and longer ranges. During the 2006 Lebanon War, Hizballah launched an earlier model of the Ababil to bomb Tel Aviv. It was shot down by the Israeli Air Force.  Since then, the Iranians have produced the more advanced Ababil-T for short and medium range attack and Ababils-B and –S.
Our military sources identify Ababil-T as Iran’s most advanced drone in operational service. It has electronic warfare, military intelligence-gathering and online transmission capabilities suited to conditions of front-line battle. It is designed to disable enemy electronic systems in combat, especially those of the United States and Israel.
Ababil means “swallow,” after the story in the Koran of an enemy sending a herd of elephants to attack the Qaaba in Mecca and the swallows released by Allah for defeating them.

Its prototype had a maximum flying range of 150 kilometers, an altitude 4.2 kilometers and it could stay aloft for 10 hours at a stretch. Iranian engineers have rapidly improved its velocity and range. But until recently, they were not known to have figured out how to produce a drone able to cover the distance to Israel in direct flight without a staging-post in Lebanon. They dared not let their prize Ababil-T cut through Iraq or Turkey because it risked interception by the American or NATO forces stationed in those countries.

This obstacle appears to have been overcome by the last upgraded Ababil, according to Gen. Vahidi.
Indeed, a week before he spoke, on Oct. 17, Manouchehr Manteqi, head of Iran’s aerospace industry, announced that Tehran now had drones capable of flying a distance of 2,000 kilometers – and therefore reaching Israel.
Iran plans to store a supply of those advanced models to Lebanon for the use of Hizballah – and not only against Israel but  to extend its range against a whole array of Tehran’s enemies – before flying them back to home base in Iran.
Iranian sources claim that the latest drone was tested in combat conditions In November 2011. A UAV was sent secretly over US Fifth Fleet vessels in the Persian Gulf, collected data and gained valuable experience for its further development.
They have now advanced to the planning stages of a spy drone with stealth qualities and a large UAV bomber, cannibalizing technology pirated from the American RQ-170 Sentinel drone they downed on Dec. 4, 2011, buying it from Russia and China and stealing it from the West.
Most of their UAV development program budget is being spent on upgrading their drones’ navigation, transmission and cyber warfare systems.
The great progress Iran has made in the past five years in all these fields has been helped along by Iranian students returning home from studies at MIT and other universities in the United States, Britain and Germany.  They are offered attractive salaries to work hard on the goals set before them.

The Region: A friend who acts like an enemy is an enemy

October 29, 2012

The Region: A friend who acts lik… JPost – Opinion – Columnists.

10/28/2012 22:45
The expression, “With friends like you, who needs enemies?” is an apt summary of a major problem for current US foreign policy.

Protesters burn US flag in Afghanistan.

Photo: REUTERS
The expression, “With friends like you, who needs enemies?” is an apt summary of a major problem for current US foreign policy. It has subtly pervaded the US presidential election, but neither candidate is willing to confront this dilemma.

Here’s the issue: A number of supposed allies of the United States don’t act as friends. In fact, they are major headaches, often subverting US goals and interests. But to avoid conflict and, for Obama, to look successful to the domestic audience, Washington pretends that everything is fine.

Consider, for example, Pakistan.

The US has given billions of dollars to that country in exchange for supposedly helping keeping the lid on Afghanistan – and especially to ensure the Taliban does not return to power – and to fight terrorism, especially al-Qaida.

In reality, Pakistan supports the Taliban, wages a terrorist war on India, and hasn’t been all that helpful in fighting al-Qaida. It would be interesting to see the US intelligence document evaluating how high up in Pakistan’s government was the knowledge that Osama bin Laden was “hiding out” a few blocks from a Pakistani military complex. The fact that Pakistan threw into prison a local doctor whose work helped find bin Laden indicates which side that regime is on.

Moreover, Pakistan’s regime is ferociously oppressing the Christian minority, becoming more Islamist, and giving women the usual treatment existing in such societies. Obama claims to be protecting women and religious minorities yet lifts not a finger in Pakistan. And rather than be a force against terrorism, the Pakistani government has been sponsoring a terrorist war against India.

After the horrible massacre of civilians in Mumbai, it became clear that the attack was sponsored and planned by Pakistan using terrorists trained and enjoying safe haven in Pakistan. India was left helpless as Pakistan simply refused to cooperate with the investigation or to turn over terrorists from the group responsible. In short, the United States is massively subsidizing a major sponsor of international terrorism.

Yet for the US government to admit that the Pakistani government is more enemy than friend would make it even more uncooperative and might lead to attacks on the US embassy and diplomats. Pretending that a regime like Pakistan’ s is helpful – and continuing to fork over US taxpayer money to it – is a huge temptation. Only if the regime in question does something obviously horrible – and even the bin Laden case wasn’t sufficient to sour the White House on Pakistan – will the situation change.

Of course, some measures have been taken but basically Pakistan isn’t paying for its behavior. Consequently, it will continue acting in a hostile way, subsidized by the United States.

The scope of this problem becomes clear if you add to this list such places as Egypt, Lebanon, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the Palestinian Authority, Turkey, Venezuela, Bolivia and several other countries in a similar situation.

Take Egypt, for example. The country is now governed by a radical, anti-American, anti-Semitic government dedicated to spreading jihad, imposing Shari’a law and driving US influence from the region. It could be argued that a mix of carrots and sticks from the United States would moderate the regime’s behavior. But what if that doesn’t work? The temptation is to continue with the carrots and forget about the sticks.

Obama says that the “red lines” are that the Cairo regime must adhere to the peace treaty with Israel; treat women and religious minorities (that is, Christians) well; and help fight terrorism. But what if it doesn’t? Suppose the Salafist burn down churches and massacre Christians and the government does not protect the minority? Suppose a Shari’a regime reduces women’s rights to a minimum? Suppose Egypt declares itself no longer bound by the peace treaty with Israel or pretty openly arms Hamas in the Gaza Strip for an attack on Israel? Will Obama be prepared for a conflict, even a confrontation, with the Arabic-speaking world’s largest country? Would even a President Mitt Romney do so? In other words, the argument would be made that it is better to keep giving money, selling weapons and shutting up about criticism than to make a break.

Moreover, the president who did make a change could be accused of getting the United States into an unnecessary battle and making more enemies. To some extent, that’s what happened with president George W. Bush.

The possible difference between the two current candidates could end up looking like this: Obama version: Although you act as enemies we will believe you are friends. Romney version: We know you aren’t really friends but we don’t have a choice.

In practice, the difference would be that Romney would have a lower threshold for acting against betrayal than would Obama.

Of course, a large part of the problem with Obama’s policy is that he not only treated enemies as friends and did not pressure supposed friends that acted like enemies, he joined them. Thus, Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are arming anti-American Islamist forces in Syria with US intelligence officers supervising the action.

The only restriction is that the guns don’t go to groups affiliated with al-Qaida. Otherwise, it doesn’t matter how extremist they are. In Libya, one of the groups treated as “good guys”– supplied with guns by the United States during the civil war there – went on to kill the US ambassador.

Yet given the current situation, especially in the Middle East, a realistic policy would make the enemies’ list seem too long and discouraging.

In political and diplomatic terms that means the truth will be covered up. The important question is: How far does a country have to go, how futile and even counterproductive do the pay-offs have to be, before it is no longer treated as a friend?

The writer is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, and editor of The Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) journal. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). GLORIA Center is at http://www.gloria-center.org.