WarSclerotic

Israel intelligence: Jihadi Attacks from Crumbling Syria :: Gatestone Institute.

by Yaakov Lappin
October 8, 2012 at 4:30 am

Al-Qaeda-inspired terror organizations cannot be deterred. Once Assad falls, the radical elements can raid Syrian military bases, arm themselves with a range of devastating weapons, and turn their sights to the Israeli border.

As Israel’s military watches Syrian sovereignty crumble and scores of militant groups form in the resulting vacuum, it is on alert for jihadi terrorist attacks from Syria.

The working assumption in Israeli defense circles is that sooner or later, Assad will fall, and Israel will have to deal with whatever will replace him.

The topping of Basher Assad will break the Tehran-Damascus-Beirut axis, which has seen Syria act as the critical bridge linking Iran to Hezbollah.

Should Syria’s Sunni-majority succeed in putting together a new government, it will accurately view Iran and Hezbollah as aiders and abettors in the massacres perpetuated against tens of thousands of Sunni civilians who tried to overthrow Assad.

A Sunni Syria will, however, in turn take its place in a new radical Sunni bloc of Middle Eastern states, and link up with the Muslim Brotherhood-ruled Egypt, Hamas in Gaza, and Islamist Turkey.

The new Sunni Islamist bloc will be every bit as hostile to Israel as the Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah axis, but also marked, in Syria and Egypt, by instability and power vacuums that will allow Salafi jihadi groups to do as they please.

Whether Syria disintegrates into warring sectarian mini-states, or transforms itself into a Sunni Islamist state, the outlook for regional security is not especially sunny.

An illustration of how edgy the situation is can be found in an incident on the border in recent days: an IDF lookout identified dozens of armed Syrians in civilian clothing approach the Israeli border.

It was not immediately clear who the armed men were – were they rebels engaging the Syrian army (the civil war has gotten so close to the Israeli border that IDF soldiers are saying they can hear mortar shells explode in Syria), or were they militant Islamist forces testing the IDF’s response?

Taking no chances, the IDF evacuated the top of the popular Mount Hermon area, which, during the Jewish holiday season, is usually brimming with visitors.

Although the incident has passed, the danger has not; and the IDF’s Military Intelligence has predicted that an attempted attack on an Israeli target from one of the growing number of radical forces operating in Syria is only a matter of time.

Combat forces stationed in the IDF’s Northern Command, including infantry and armored divisions, have therefore been working closely with Military Intelligence to prepare for a rapidly changing environment.

Military Intelligence has been briefing commanders of Israeli armored vehicle brigades in the north on the new threats.

Gone are the days when the threat was primarily the centralized, hierarchical, Syrian army. Now, the threats are irregular terror militias armed with explosives, shoulder-held grenade launchers, roadside bombs, anti-tank missiles, and a range of firearms.

Once the intelligence is received, commanders on the ground must use the new information to create new contingency plans and new deployment patterns.

As the recent escalation between Turkey and Syria has demonstrated, the IDF must also continue to worry about the possibility of a confrontation with regular Syrian forces,.

With the Assad regime feeling its back to the wall, there is no way to know how the situation might proceed: decisions that now seem self-destructive from Syria’s perspective, such as creating provocations with neighbors, or even a misfired shell (as with Turkey), could set off a chain of unpredictable events.

Similarly, suspicious movement of Syria’s chemical weapons will spark a crisis.

To ensure that it can quickly mobilize its Artillery Corps to the Syrian front, the IDF held a surprise and vast live-fire exercise on the Golan Heights in recent weeks. During the drill, Artillery Corps soldiers were, without warning, airlifted from their routine security missions in the West Bank to the Golan Heights, where they assumed their positions and began firing at virtual targets.

The IDF is satisfied with the result of the drill: it proved to itself that it can quickly mobilize its heavy firepower and begin to shell targets at a moment’s notice.

Standing Arab armies were a bigger threat to Israel’s security, but because they were controlled by central governments, Israeli deterrence against that threat proved effective for decades.

Although the same deterrence is now in effect against terror organizations which have seized territory and power – Hamas and Hezbollah – the al-Qaeda-inspired terror organizations cannot be deterred. Once Assad falls, the radical elements can raid Syrian military bases, arm themselves with a range of devastating weapons, and turn their sights to the Israeli border.

So the Arab winter continues to take shape.

Israeli air, missile, artillery pound Gaza after massive Palestinian barrage.

DEBKAfile Special Report October 8, 2012, 10:21 AM (GMT+02:00)

Israeli warplanes, self-propelled artillery and short-range missiles attacked Hamas and Jihad Islami positions and command posts in the Gaza Strip early Monday, Oct. 8, shortly after Palestinians loosed a barrage of 55 missiles and mortar shells on the Eshkol district.

Both terrorist organizations claimed they were responsible for the barrage, which caused no casualties only heavy damage to property. As of now, Palestinian fire continues.
Casualties from the Israeli reprisal are reported in the Gaza Strip.

debkafile: Israel’s response was major because for the first time the two dominant organizations in Gaza, the radical Hamas and Iran-sponsored Jihad Islami, assumed responsibility for avenging an an Israeli attack on radical Salafist terrorists affiliated with al Qaeda. This attests to the comprehensive ties of operational collaboration forged between the diverse terrorist organizations fighting Israel from the Gaza Strip.
Sunday, Oct. 7, a targeted Israeli air strike critically injured two motorcyclists, members of al Qaeda-linked groups in the Rafah district of southern Gaza. Palestinian sources reported 11 people injured including five children.
Israel also suspects that the pilotless helicopter sent by Iran to breach Israeli air space Saturday, Oct. 6, which flew in from the Mediterranean over the Gaza Strip, was jointly orchestrated by Tehran, Hizballah and Hamas as part of a war exercise Hamas conducted in the Gaza Strip on that day.

Iran minister floats ‘trade-off’ in nuclear dispute – Israel News, Ynetnews.

( Another stall?  Or are they finally beginning to crack? – JW )

FM Salehi tells Der Spiegel ‘if our right to enrichment is recognized, we will voluntary limit amount of our enrichment’

AFP

The Iranian foreign minister has proposed a “trade-off” in the country’s stand-off with the West over its disputed nuclear program, in an interview with a German news magazine.European Union ministers are due to meet on October 15 when Britain, France and Germany will press for tougher sanctions on Iran’s energy sector and financial institutions.

In Monday’s edition of Der Spiegel, Ali Akbar Salehi reiterates that Iran has a right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes and insists there is no proof it is conducting nuclear research for military ends.

However he said: “If our right to enrichment is recognized, we are ready for a trade-off. We would, on a voluntary basis, limit the amount of our enrichment.”

But he said in the interview published in German that Iran would need “the guaranteed supply” of appropriate fuels from abroad.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said last week that Iran would not back down on its nuclear drive despite the problems caused by Western sanctions, including a dramatic slide in the value of its currency.

Israeli Planes in ‘Mock Raids’ over Lebanon – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

IAF F-16

Israel news photo: Flash 90

The Air Force carried out “mock raids” at medium altitude over southern Lebanon Sunday, hours after Israel said all indications are that Hizbullah launched a drone that was downed inside Israel on Saturday, according to the Arabic language Nahar newspaper.

Israel previously has carried out surveillance flights over southern Lebanon, which is under control of the Hizbullah terrorist organization. Sunday’s flights, which have not been confirmed by Israel, apparently were a response to the drone.

A Lebanese television station stated that Hizbullah was responsible for the drone infiltration into Israel’s air space, while Iran’s propaganda machine tried to divert attention from Hizbullah and claim the drone Israel downed was mistakenly launched by the United States.

Hizbullah has not officially commented on the drone, which was destroyed by Israeli Air Force F-16 jets Saturday morning over a relatively unpopulated area.

However, Al-Mayadeen television, linked with Hizbullah, said the terrorist group launched the drone, which “traveled 100 kilometers deep inside Israel and sparked tensions.”

Iran’s government-controlled Press TV told Iranians that a former Lebanese general said that drone actually was mistakenly fired by the United States. The Ahmadinejad regime frequently tried to take the focus off accusations against Iran or its allies by blaming others for terrorist attacks.

“[The drone must have come] from an American aircraft carrier or from [air force and military bases in] Saudi Arabia, also American bases. That’s the only possibility so far until we know after investigation,” said retired Lebanese major general Hisham Jaber in an interview with the Iranian media outlet.

“Jaber maintained that although the Tel Aviv regime might accuse an Arab state, it was unlikely that the drone belonged to an Arab country,” Press TV reported.

“Considering the good relationship between the Israeli regime and Jordan, the analyst went on to say that he did not think the drone could have been operated from Jordan, adding that it is ‘impossible’ that the drone came from Lebanon,” it added.

“If Israel after investigation will remain silent and will close the file that means like we said it came from friendly side (mistakenly sent by the Americans) and it is not in their interest to talk about it,” Jaber concluded.

Netanyahu and Barak discuss response to UAV overflight.

DEBKAfile October 6, 2012, 9:42 PM (GMT+02:00)

Their recent political differences set aside, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak conferred urgently Saturday night on how Israel should respond to the unidentified pilotless helicopter’s incursion into Israeli air space during the day. They and IDF chiefs know exactly who sent the aircraft by satellite guidance over southern Israel and for what purpose, but are withholding the information from the public out of three considerations:
1. So as not to tie themselves down to any particular option;
2. In case they decide inaction is the better course for now;
3. To wait for word from Washington after fully briefing the White House on the event.

Israel Hayom | ‘Israel could act solo against Iran within 6 to 8 months,’ says Shoval.

Iran and Nuclear Weapons in our Historic Times | Jewish & Israel News Algemeiner.com.

Noah Beck

We live in a historic time during which a few key decisions will have monumental consequences. Everyone who cares about the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran should do what they can to make their concerns heard.

I wrote a fictional story in the hope that it would never become fact. Authoring The Last Israelis was, as an ordinary American, my best grassroots effort to impact the public debate on Iranian nukes and promote the policy changes needed to avert a calamity.

The premise of my cautionary tale about the perils of a nuclear Iran appears to be leaving the realm of fiction. The story begins with the Mossad urgently warning the Israeli Prime Minister that there is little time left to stop Iranian nukes militarily.
I wrote the novel to try to wake the world up before force becomes necessary. But the Obama administration – by trying to minimize the chances of a pre-election military blowup – is actually increasing the odds that Israel will act alone to stave off an existential threat, and the results will be far messier than if the US resolves the crisis decisively, with much bigger carrots and sticks than those employed thus far.

Instead, the US has been publicly distancing itself from an Israeli strike on the Iranian nuclear program, effectively abandoning its most reliable ally and the only democracy in the Middle East.

Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently sent a dangerously counterproductive signal to Iran when he said, referring to an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear program, “I don’t want to be complicit if they choose to do it.”

His statement isolates Israel on an issue that requires international unity and inappropriately connotes criminality with the word “complicit.” Reports then emerged that the US, through diplomatic back channels, had asked Iran not to attack the US should Israel choose to strike unilaterally.
To make matters worse, Obama has categorically refused to state the “red lines” that the Iranian nuclear program will not be allowed to cross. As if that weren’t bad enough, Obama didn’t meet with Netanyahu in New York this month to discuss the issue — even as he expects Netanyahu to trust him to handle one of the most serious threats to Israel since the state was founded. Rather than instilling confidence in Israel and projecting unity and strength to Iran, Obama’s actions leave Israel feeling more vulnerable and signal division and weakness to Iran.

The Wall Street Journal recently offered an excellent explanation for Israeli mistrust of this administration, “It’s one thing to hear from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that he wants to wipe you off the map: At least it has the ring of honesty. It’s quite another to hear from President Obama that he has your back, even as his Administration tries to sell to the public a make-believe world in which Iran’s nuclear intentions are potentially peaceful, sanctions are working and diplomacy hasn’t failed after three and half years.”

So what can concerned US citizens do? There are presidential elections coming up soon, but November may be too late.

In addition to my new book, I published some editorials on the menace of Iran’s nuclear program, and would encourage others to do the same and otherwise keep public attention focused on the issue. There are also worthy non-profits that are active on the Iranian nuclear issue and they are in need of support.

Most importantly, people who are concerned need to make their voices heard.

How Iran’s Bomb is Being Built While Obama Meets Jay-Z – Op-Eds – Israel National News.

israel today | Israel News | The Unspoken Alliance: Israel and the House of Saud – Part II – israel today | Israel News.

Israeli planes trigger sonic booms over Lebanon in possible response to drone dispatch | The Times of Israel.

Hezbollah neither confirms nor denies it sent the unmanned aircraft downed over Israel

By AP and Times of Israel staff October 7, 2012, 10:56 am

Israeli planes flew into Lebanese air space and broke the sound barrier Sunday, causing sonic booms, Lebanese media reported.

The sortie appeared to be in response to the infiltration of Israeli air space Saturday by a drone Israeli officials suspect was launched by the Lebanon-based terror organization Hezbollah.

The booms were audible Sunday in several locations in Lebanon, according to the report from Lebanon’s official National News Agency.

Israel’s air force shot the drone down north of Beersheba. It had penetrated deep into Israeli airspace and flown for half an hour before it was intercepted.

After an initial investigation, military officials said the unmanned aerial vehicle did not come from the Gaza Strip, leading the army to consider the possibility that it originated in Lebanon. Hezbollah has flown drones into Israeli airspace a few times in the past, though not for several years. Hezbollah neither confirmed or denied responsibility.

IDF Spokesperson Yoav Mordechai said that Israel’s air force was able to identify the drone while it was flying over the Mediterranean, and tracked it throughout its flight over Israel until the decision was made to shoot it down over an unpopulated area.

Nobody was hurt in the incident.

Lt. Col. Avital Leibovich, an Israeli military spokeswoman, said Israeli systems on the ground alerted the air force to the drone Saturday morning. She said it flew over the Gaza Strip but did not originate from the Palestinian territory, adding that Israel did not know the drone’s starting point and an investigation was under way.

Leibovich did not give more details, but Israel media reported that it might have been an intelligence-gathering drone that was not carrying explosives.

Leibovich said the operation was successful and the military was in control throughout.

“We had monitoring contact from the ground and from the air. We alerted jet planes that escorted the unmanned aerial vehicle and due to some operational considerations we decided to intercept the unmanned aerial vehicle in the northern Negev area, which has no population,” Leibovich said.

Leibovich would not elaborate how the unmanned vehicle was brought down. She said troops were searching for debris.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised the IDF for its successful interception. “We will continue to protect our land, sea and air borders on behalf of the citizens of Israel,” he said.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak, meanwhile, commented on the gravity of the incident, saying that Israel’s leaders “view this incident of attempting to enter Israeli airspace very severely and we will consider our response later.”

Earlier unconfirmed Palestinian reports had stated that the drone came from the Gaza Strip. The IDF ruled this out.

The launch of a drone from Gaza would have been an unprecedented intrusion into Israel from the Hamas-controlled Strip. Hamas and other terrorist organizations have fired thousands of rockets into Israel in recent years, and Hamas constantly strives to improve its military capabilities, extending its rockets’ range, and seeking to acquire anti-aircraft capacities that would constrain the air force’s freedom of movement over Gaza.

Several Hezbollah drones have crossed over into Israeli airspace in recent years. In November 2004, the Islamist group flew a reconnaissance drone, the “Mirsad 1,” into Israel for the first time. It was not shot down by the IDF.

In April 2005, the group flew another “Mirsad” drone into Israel airspace. This one, too, was not intercepted.

In the 2006 war, Hezbollah launched an Iranian-made drone capable of carrying explosives into Israel, and it was shot down. Another one launched two years earlier crashed in the Mediterranean.