WarSclerotic

Why an Israeli Attack in Sudan Wouldn’t Be Practice for Iran – ABC News.

Two big questions have emerged in the aftermath of a mysterious explosion at a weapons factory in Sudan: Was the factory the target of an Israeli air strike? And, if so, could the attack be seen as a demonstration of the same capabilities Israel may one day use to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities?

As to the first question, Israel has been blamed by top Sudanese and Iranian officials of carrying out Tuesday night’s bombing of the Yarmouk factory just south of the Sudanese capital of Khartoum. They say witnesses claim they saw four Israeli planes come in from the east. For their part, Israeli military officials have done little today to squelch the rumors.

The second question emerges when one compares the distances from Israel to the Sudanese facility and the distance from Israel to potential Iranian nuclear targets. Top Israeli officials and America’s President Obama have said that no option is off the table, including the use of military force, to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, should it become clear that’s the goal of their nuclear program.

From the southern tip of Israel to Khartoum is just under 1,000 miles – almost exactly the distance from Israel to Tehran, Iran.

So if Israel was behind the Sudan strike, did such a long-distance attack prove Israel could unilaterally pull similar move on Iran? Hardly.

First, unlike Iran, Sudan has little air defense capability to speak of and its own fighters do not fly at night. A night time strike on a relatively undefended target is not a difficult operation for any first tier military power.

Second, if the explosion in Sudan was the work of the Israelis, the operation apparently only required four planes to hit a single target. Should Israel launch a strike against Iran’s nuclear program, it would likely require hitting several sites around the same time by dozens of Israeli aircraft – each of which would be a potential target for Iran’s alert air defenses and indigenous air force.

And if Israel took anything but a route over the Red Sea to Iran, they would have to fly over several countries with far more sophisticated air defense capabilities. The element of surprise would be much harder to maintain.

Iran would be a truly Varsity operation, as opposed to this alleged Sudan strike, which might be considered JV at best.

Col. Steve Ganyard (Ret.) is a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Plans, Programs and Operations in the Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, a former Marine Corps fighter pilot, and is now an ABC News consultant.

Sudan-Iran links under scrutiny after explosion | Kuwait Times.

KHARTOUM: Sudan’s links to Iran came under scrutiny yesterday after Khartoum accused Israel of a deadly missile strike on a military factory in the heart of the Sudanese capital.

The cabinet met in urgent session late Wednesday after the government said evidence pointed to Israeli involvement in the alleged attack at around midnight Tuesday on the Yarmouk military manufacturing facility in southern Khartoum. Sudan accused the Jewish state of a similar raid 18 months ago. Analysts, however, said they had not ruled out an accidental cause for the latest blast. Israeli officials have expressed concern about arms smuggling through Sudan and have long accused Khartoum of serving as a base of support for militants from the Islamist Hamas movement.

Israel refused all comment on the Khartoum allegations, but Amos Gilad, a top Israeli defense official, called Sudan “a dangerous terrorist state.” Gilad, director of policy and political-military affairs at the defense ministry, refused to reply directly when asked whether Israel was involved in the attack, which Sudan said was conducted by four radar-evading aircraft. “The regime is supported by Iran and it serves as a route for the transfer, via Egyptian territory, of Iranian weapons to Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists,” he told his country’s army radio yesterday. “Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir is regarded a war criminal.”

Bashir is wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity, war crimes and genocide in Sudan’s Darfur region where a rebellion began in 2003. His cabinet issued no statement after its late Wednesday meeting, where Bashir joined anti-Israel protesters in chanting “Allahu akbar” (“God is greater”).  About 300 demonstrators denounced the United States and carried banners calling for Israel to be wiped off the earth. “There was supposed to be an agreement between Sudan and Iran to produce some kind of non-conventional weapons,” a diplomatic source said yesterday.

The source, asking not to be identified, said he was also told that the Yarmouk factory was involved in drone production. But Jonah Leff, of Small Arms Survey, a Swiss-based independent research project, said he doubts such equipment is made locally. Leff’s project has documented the presence of a drone, landmines and other Iranian weapons in Sudan but he thinks they were acquired directly from Iran. “There’s a lot of speculation that Iran has provided technical assistance to the Sudanese for their weapons manufacturing but I haven’t been able to confirm that they’re producing any Iranian weapons,” he said. On a visit to Tehran last August, Bashir described the relationship between Sudan and Iran as “deeply rooted”.

Leff identified Yarmouk as part of Sudan’s Military Industry Corporation, which claims to produce a variety of weapons from pistols to battle tanks. “They’re highly secretive… It’s hard to know what exactly they’re producing and what is propaganda,” Leff said. Information Minister Ahmed Bilal Osman told reporters on Wednesday that the factory made “traditional weapons”. Nearby residents said an aircraft or missile had flown overhead shortly before the area exploded in flames, sending bursts of white light into the night sky. Sudan called on the UN Security Council to condemn Israel for what its envoy, Daffa-Alla Elhag Ali Osman, called “a blatant violation of the concept of peace and security” and the UN charter.

On Wednesday, before officials accused Israel, the governor of Khartoum state Abdul Rahman Al-Khider dismissed speculation that “other reasons” caused the explosion, which he said happened in a store room. The diplomatic source said “the human factor”—a possible accidental cause—should not be ruled out although Sudanese officials are taking allegations of Israeli involvement seriously. Leff said it is just as likely that the Sudanese are blaming Israel to avoid embarrassment after an accidental blast. In April last year, Sudan said it had irrefutable evidence that Israeli attack helicopters carried out a strike on a car south of Port Sudan. That incident mirrored a similar attack by foreign aircraft on a truck convoy reportedly laden with weapons in eastern Sudan in January 2009.- AFP

By JPOST.COM STAFF

LAST UPDATED: 10/25/2012 16:30

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on Thursday stated Israel has nothing to say about Wednesday’s explosion at an arms factory in Khartoum which the Sudanese government attributed to an Israeli air strike.

Netanyahu’s comments followed those by Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who by when asked by Israel’s Channel Two News about Sudan’s accusations said: “There is nothing I can say about this subject.”

Sudan called on the UN Security Council to condemn Israel for the attack which killed two people.

via Jerusalem Post – Breaking News.

For What it’s Worth 10-25-2012.mp4 – YouTube.

Victory in Khartoum !

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Diplomats: Iran one step closer … JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

Israel Hayom | From Gaza to Khartoum.

‘US Sudan embassy closed shortly after munitions factory explosion’ | The Times of Israel.

Hundreds chant ‘death to Israel’ in Khartoum; Sudanese minister says his country has the right to respond

Central Khartoum (photo credit: CC BY, NZ Defence Force, Flickr)

The US embassy to Sudan was reportedly closed on Wednesday, shortly after an explosion at a weapons facility south of the capital Khartoum.

Al-Hayat reported on Thursday that the embassy, which stopped providing services in September after being attacked by rioters protesting the anti-Islamic film “Innocence of Muslims,” was completely closed following the alleged bombing, which was blamed by the Sudanese government on Israel.

The article quoted Sudanese sources, who said that the US knew Israel was behind the attack and closed its embassy, fearing retaliation for the alleged bombing.

On Wednesday night, hundreds of people gathered in the Sudanese capital holding anti-Israel signs after Khartoum said Jerusalem had been behind the attack, which killed two people.

Some 300 demonstrators rallying against Israel chanted slogans, including “Death to Israel” and “Remove Israel from the map,” according to a report in the Iranian Press TV.

Minister of Information Ahmed Belal Osman told reporters on Wednesday that four aircraft hit the Yarmouk Complex, setting off a huge blast that rocked the capital before dawn.

“Four planes coming from the east bombed the Yarmouk industrial complex,” Belal said. “They used sophisticated technology.” He didn’t elaborate further.

Belal also referred to a 2009 attack on an arms convoy that killed dozens in the Red Sea province in the east of the country. The government then blamed the attack on Israel, which believes Sudan is a conduit for arms shipments through Egypt to Gaza’s militant Hamas rulers. Israel does not comment officially on the issue.

Belal said the complex produces conventional weapons. He said his country has the right to respond.

In a letter to the UN Security Council, Sudan’s representative called the attack a “blatant violation” of the UN charter and called for condemnation from the world body.

Belal also said a technical team is inspecting remains of the missiles used in the attack which he said suggest Israel is behind the bombing. He didn’t provide any evidence.

Israeli officials neither confirmed or denied Israel’s involvement.

At the same news conference, military spokesman Sawarmy Khaled said two people were killed and another was seriously injured in the blast. Earlier, officials said some people suffered from smoke inhalation.

In New York, Sudan’s UN Ambassador Daffa-Alla Elhag Ali Osman called on the UN Security Council to condemn the attack, accusing Israel of meddling in its internal affairs and providing support to rebel groups.

The Cairo-based Arab League said it is closely following the fallout from the attack. Deputy Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed bin Helli said Sudanese officials are in touch with the League and have provided initial reports about Israel’s alleged involvement. “We are working to verify them,” he said.

Sudanese activists on social media websites criticized the government for placing a factory with such large quantities of ammunition in a residential area.

Sudan has been engaged in various armed conflicts for many years.

Sudan’s government has been at war with rebels in the western region of Darfur and with its neighbors in South Sudan, which broke away to become Africa’s newest country in 2011. Sudan’s president, Omar al-Bashir, has been indicted by the International Criminal Court on charges of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Sudan was a major hub for al-Qaeda militants and remains a transit for weapon smugglers and African migrant traffickers.

The US imposed economic, trade and financial sanctions against Sudan in 1997, citing the Sudanese government’s support for terrorism, including its sheltering of al-Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden in Khartoum the mid-1990s.

In 1998, American cruise missiles bombed a Khartoum pharmaceutical factory suspected of links to al-Qaeda. That followed the terror group’s bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania that killed 224 people.

The Yarmouk weapons complex was built in the 1996. Sudan prided itself in having a way to produce its own ammunition and weapons despite international sanctions.

Yarmouk is one of two known state-owned weapons manufacturing facilities in the Sudanese capital.

Jonah Leff of the Geneva-based Small Arms Survey told The Associated Press that the location of the two factories is “certainly a hazard” to Khartoum’s population if the weapons inside are not properly maintained or secured.

A September report from the Small Arms Survey said there was evidence from weapons packaging found in Darfur and in South Kordofan that arms and ammunition from China are exported to Yarmouk and then transported to the two embattled regions.

Leff said that although the Small Arms Survey has documented Sudanese military stocks of Iranian weapons and ammunition, there is no evidence that Iranian weapons are being assembled or manufactured in the two Khartoum factories.

Sudan opposition: Bombed arms factory belongs to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

It is still unclear who is responsible for the attack on the Yarmouk military plant in south Khartoum, but according to past reports in the foreign media, Iran has built such facilities in order to arm Hamas.

By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff | Oct.24, 2012 | 9:22 PM | 7

An image of ammunition remains at a press conference following an overnight explosion at the Yarmouk military plant in Khartoum, October 24, 2012. Photo by AFP

By Avi Issacharoff and Reuters

Oct.24,2012 | 9:22 PM | 7

Opposition sources in Sudan claim that the arms factory bombed overnight Tuesday in south Khartoum, the Sudanese capital, belongs to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

At this point, it is difficult to verify these claims since it isn’t even clear who stands behind the bombing. Sudan’s Information Minister Ahmed Belal Osman claimed that four Israeli planes are responsible for the bombing of the Yarmouk Military Industrial Complex in southern Khartoum. “They came from the east,” he said. “You know that last year, and the year before that, Sudanese citizens were attacked in the Red Sea… it all point to Israel’s involvement.”

However, what was not said by the Sudanese authorities, who provided a plethora of confusing and conflicting reports (even regarding the number of casualties), was information regarding the factory itself. In recent years, several reports published in the Arab media said that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard built weapons manufacturing plants together with the Sudanese government.

However, their military cooperation does not end with the establishment of one military plant, and even senior Sudanese officials have not denied in the past that Iran has military factories on their land.

In fact, according to foreign reports, the arms factories that Iran built in Sudan were meant to arm Hamas. In the past, European media reported that Iran has sent men from the Republican Guard in order to train the Sudanese army.

Moreover, after the fall of the regime of Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi, the Al-Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps succeeded in smuggling dozens of antiaircraft and SA-24 missiles from the Libyan army’s crumbling arsenals to Sudan, in order to later pass them on to Hamas.

One of the reports said that these missiles are held in a military facility in north Darfur which is controlled by the Revolutionary Guard.

The bombing of the military factory in Khartoum took place after midnight on Tuesday. Initially, senior officials in Sudan claimed that the explosion was the result of an accident that occurred during routine maintenance. However, residents in the area told the Sudan Tribune, which is located outside of Sudan, that they heard a sound similar to that of a missile, and then several seconds later they heard a big explosion. It was also reported that at least two people were killed in the blast and eyewitnesses reported seeing a big crater in the facility.

Sudan reporter: Local communications severed prior to arms factory blast – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

Blackout meant that aside from the sound of gunshots, residents of the area had no idea what was going on, journalist tells Haaretz.

Fire engulfs Yarmouk ammunition factory in Khartoum October 24, 2012. Photo by Reuters

By Reuters, Barak Ravid and Avi Issacharoff

Oct.25,2012 | 1:55 PM | 38

The telecommunications networks in the Sudanese capital of Khartoum were disconnected for about an hour before an explosion rocked an arms factory there a local journalist told Haaretz on Thursday.

The blackout meant that aside from the sound of gunshots, residents of the area had no idea what was going on, said the journalist. The explosion lit up the sky, and nobody knew at first what was going, he added. Eyewitnesses later described hearing planes flying in the sky around the time of the blast.

Residents of the area know that the factory is used for producing and storing weapons, said the journalist. Large parts of the factory were destroyed in the blast, he said.

Four military planes attacked the Yarmouk arms factory overnight between Tuesday and Wednesday, causing a mass fire. After many hours of silence, Sudan’s information minister accused Israel of being behind the explosion.

Sudan, which analysts say is used as an arms smuggling route to the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip via neighboring Egypt, has blamed Israel for such strikes in the past but Israel has always either refused to comment or said it neither admitted nor denied involvement.

Four military planes attacked the Yarmouk plant … We believe that Israel is behind it,” Information Minister Ahmed Belal Osman told reporters, adding that “the planes had appeared to approach the site from the east.”

“Sudan reserves the right to strike back at Israel,” he said, saying two citizens had been killed and that the plant had been partially destroyed.

“We are now certain that this flagrant attack was authorized by the same state of Israel. The main purpose is to frustrate our military capabilities and stop any development there and ultimately weaken our national sovereignty,” Osman said.

He said his country has the right to respond and may take the issue to the UN Security Council.

Obama’s Red Carpet for Islamic Radicals | David M. Weinberg.