WarSclerotic

The American mistake – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: Iran doesn’t need sophisticated weaponry to launch nuclear attack on Israel, change Mideast

Alex Fishman

There is a very clear and worrying thread linking the infiltration of a drone into Israeli airspace from Lebanon and the unyielding positions vis-à-vis the Iranian nuclear program as expressed by Vice President Joe Biden in the televised debate against his Republican rival. This thread expresses something we actually should have internalized a long while ago: The American government has never understood the Middle East and fundamental Islam, and it probably never will.

The mental and cultural gaps are so vast, that even simple terms such as “nuclear weapons” have a different meaning on both sides of the ocean. Therefore, with all due respect, the American administration is not a good advisor to Israel when it comes to the Iranian issue. It is full of good intentions, but on issues related to the Islamic world it is far from being an expert.

In Israel, some members of the security establishment have been infected with this same blindness. When the Iranian drone was shot down some 30 kilometers from Dimona, Israel cheered: The plot has been thwarted. In Western language, which Israel uses as well, the presence of a hostile drone is supposed to have some sort of operational purpose. Someone had sent it to take pictures, check the alertness of Israel’s defense systems and send back data. In short: It was supposed to carry out a practical mission with tangible results. Since these results were not achieved, the mission failed.

But in the language of the Iranians and Nasrallah, the fact that the unmanned aircraft penetrated Israeli airspace is a huge achievement on a psychological level. As far as they are concerned, this was the purpose of the mission. The aircraft was launched out of desperation. Assad is in trouble, Hezbollah terrorists are getting killed in Syria, Nasrallah’s influence in Lebanon is waning, and he is sending the region a message: I promised a surprise weapon, and I kept my promise. We possess capabilities you are not aware of, so don’t mess with us.

Biden, as a representative of the US administration’s way of thinking, reads the intelligence data on the Iranian nuclear program and does not understand what he is reading. When he explains to the world in English that Iran is still far from being able to produce a nuclear weapon – it sounds different in Persian. It is not enough to enrich uranium, Biden says, and he’s right. The Iranians have yet to develop the systems that can carry this uranium. And here is where the deception that stems from the cultural differences comes into play. When the American speaks of nuclear weapons he is referring to a mature weapons system that had been tested repeatedly. He is speaking of modern missiles that are equipped with navigation systems and fuses that will cause the maximum amount of damage.

Here lies the real dispute between Israel and the US. According to the American viewpoint, three to five years will pass before the Iranians can produce a nuclear weapon. Israel, on the other hand, is talking about nuclear capabilities, not nuclear weapons, and points to a process that may be completed within a few months.

According to Israel’s outlook, the Iranians will have military nuclear capabilities without producing a missile that is on par with American standards. It is enough that they place a few nuclear warheads on inaccurate missiles, with an unsophisticated fuse, whose only advantage is that they can reach Israel and maybe even explode – just as Saddam Hussein did not wait until he had sophisticated Scud missiles to attack Israel and made due with makeshift missiles, some of which fell apart in mid-air. His goal was to drag Israel into the war – not to defeat it.

The outdated technology of Iran’s nuclear missiles, just like the obsolete technology of the “simple” drone that was sent from Lebanon, is enough for the Iranians to create a new Middle East, with new rules, and hurt Israel’s resilience.

New W. intelligence: Syrian rebels don’t have the numbers to win.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 15, 2012, 9:20 AM (GMT+02:00)

Israel’s MI Chief Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi on Syrian Golan border

The revised estimates compiled by US and French intelligence agencies on the relative strength of Syrian government and rebel forces have given Washington and Arab capitals backing the Syrian opposition pause.  

The Obama administration has built its policies around an estimated 70,000 rebel fighters, whereas the revised figure, according to debkafile’s intelligence sources, appears to be less than half – around 30,000.  With some 3,000 jihadis, Al Qaeda-linked groups make up around one-tenth of total rebel strength.
Officials in Washington and Paris are trying to play down the revised estimates because it throws out the basic premise of the Obama administration’s Middle East policy that Bashar Assad can’t last more than six months against the rebel offensive. US military experts now admit, albeit without attribution, that the overall balance of strength – and not just the numbers – has radically changed in the Assad regime’s favor, due to direct Iranian military input: Military advisers of the elite Al Qods Brigades are conducting crash combat courses for the 70,000- strong pro-Assad Alawite militia and sections of the Syrian army still loyal to the ruler.
This qualitative injection into Assad’s military sources will substantially extend the life expectancy of his regime.

For now, US President Barack Obama does not appear to be affected by the new figures or about to change his firm position against direct Western or regional intervention in Syria. He is still pressuring Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan to keep a lid on the escalating Turkish-Syrian hostilities. He is also holding Saudi Arabia and Qatar back from supplying the rebels with heavy anti-tank and anti-air weapons for withstanding Syrian assaults.
At the same time, the situation in Syria is incendiary enough to shoot into an unforeseen direction in the three weeks remaining up until the US presidential election and may force the president’s hand. The Syrian crisis will certainly figure large in his debate with Republican candidate Mitt Romney Tuesday, Oct. 16, along with the security issues raised by the murder of four US diplomats in Libya by al Qaeda on Sept. 11.

Our sources in Paris report that President France Hollande’s take on the new intelligence estimates counters the Obama position. He is urging direct intervention in Syria for the creation of safe havens for opposition forces and refugees, a no-fly zone and a supply of heavy weapons to give the insurgents a chance to retilt the tide of the war in their favor. He is galvanized by reports from the battlefield that the rebels face serious reverses in the face of the Assad army’s numerical superiority and Iranian, Russian and Hizballah aid. This could lead to a hopeless stalemate in the Syrian crisis, which the Syrian ruler would use to grind down the opposition’s strength and reassert his authority, helped along by the bitter divisions in Syrian opposition ranks.
For now, Israel’s leaders are lining up publicly with the Obama prediction of a foreshortened Assad reign and overestimate of rebel strength and prospects. They continue to assert that the Syrian ruler’s days are numbered. Military Intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi is more reserved. During a visit IDF forces ranged on the Golan on Oct. 3, he spoke cautiously about “the eroding authority of the Syrian regime.”