WarSclerotic

Report on Iran Nuclear Work Puts Israel in a Box – NYTimes.com.

By JODI RUDOREN and DAVID E. SANGER

JERUSALEM — For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the International Atomic Energy Agency on Thursday offered findings validating his longstanding position that while harsh economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation may have hurt Iran, they have failed to slow Tehran’s nuclear program. If anything, the program is speeding up.

But the agency’s report has also put Israel in a corner, documenting that Iran is close to crossing what Israel has long said is its red line: the capability to produce nuclear weapons in a location invulnerable to Israeli attack.

With the report that the country has already installed more than 2,100 centrifuges inside a virtually impenetrable underground laboratory, and that it has ramped up production of nuclear fuel, officials and experts here say the conclusions may force Israel to strike Iran or concede it is not prepared to act on its own.

Whether that ultimately leads to a change in strategy — or a unilateral attack — is something that even Israel’s inner circle cannot yet agree on, despite what seems to be a consensus that Iran’s program may soon be beyond the reach of Israel’s military capability.

“It leaves us at this dead end,” said a senior government official here, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he is involved in the decision-making process. “The more time elapses with no change on the ground in terms of Iranian policies, the more it becomes a zero-sum game.”

The report accentuates the tension with Washington during the hot-tempered atmosphere of a presidential election. President Obama and Mr. Netanyahu often say they have a common assessment of the intelligence about Iran’s progress. What they do not agree on is the time available.

American officials have repeatedly tried to assure the Israelis that they have the country’s back — and to remind them that Israel does not have the ability, by itself, to destroy the facility, built beneath a mountain outside Qum. The United States does have weaponry that it believes can demolish the lab, but in Mr. Obama’s judgment there is still what the White House calls “time and space” for diplomacy, sanctions and sabotage, a combination the Israelis say has been insufficient.

“They can’t do it right without us,” a former adviser to Mr. Obama said recently. “And we’re trying to persuade them that a strike that just drives the program more underground isn’t a solution; it’s a bigger problem.”

The report comes at a critical moment in Israel’s long campaign to build Western support for stopping Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, which virtually every leader here regards as an existential threat. Military professionals concede the potential effectiveness of an Israeli strike is decreasing as Iran moves more of its operations underground. (Already, the best Israel might be able to accomplish, they say, is to close the tunnel entrances around the underground plant, called Fordow, rather than destroy what is inside.)

Politically, Israeli leaders are concerned they will lose leverage after the November presidential election — regardless of the result — but are also worried about a pre-election strike that angers Washington, whose support would be all the more critical in its aftermath.

A month after a blitz of visits by high-ranking American security officials, the frenzy of public discussion here over the imminence of an attack has quieted, as Israelis have returned from summer vacation and begun preparing for the High Holy Days. But several high-ranking government officials said the study, debate and lobbying in the tight circle of decision-makers has intensified, and Israel has taken steps to shore up the home front and prepare its citizens.

Many inside the government, along with independent analysts, say the status quo is not sustainable. Unless the international community finds new ways to apply diplomatic pressure, or the United States issues a clear ultimatum to Iran about its intentions to act militarily, they say, the chances of an Israeli attack this year will climb.

“If the U.S. makes it clear to the Iranians that they may go to war, there will be no need for anyone to go to war,” one top Israeli official said.

Asked about the report, Mr. Obama’s spokesman, Jay Carney, said, “The president has made clear frequently he is determined to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.” But he set no deadlines, and officials said Mr. Obama was not likely to specify a date or exact set of conditions that would provoke a military response.

Several leaders and analysts in Israel are pinning their hopes on a possible meeting between Mr. Obama and Mr. Netanyahu when the prime minister travels to the United Nations General Assembly in late September.

“The tragedy is the failure of these two to get over their grudges and the bad blood and work in an intimate, serious way together,” said Ari Shavit, a columnist for the left-leaning newspaper Haaretz. “Rather than the great democracy and the small democracy working together, they seem to be working with deep suspicion of each other.”

The critical difference between the American and Israeli views of the situation has long been one of timing. In Jerusalem, the clocks are ticking — and, as a senior government official put it, “all of them are now ticking at a higher speed.”

“Every week they get closer,” this official said of Iran, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he, too, is involved in the high-level deliberations. “While our side can, every week, seem to be in the same place, their side every week gets closer to this target.” (Iran contends its nuclear work is for peaceful purposes.)

Though Mr. Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak are crucial to making the final call, attention has turned to a group of 14 ministers known as the inner cabinet, or security cabinet. Yossi Melman, an author of “Spies Against Armageddon,” a history of Israeli intelligence, said military actions typically required “a solid majority” of 12 or 13 members of this group, which is currently divided.

Three or four of the ministers are believed to be opposed to an independent Israeli strike, while six seem to be in favor. Two big unknowns are Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who both declined to be interviewed.

Mr. Netanyahu has been wooing Mr. Yaalon, including him in a small dinner when Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton was here in July. In a recent Twitter post, Mr. Yaalon warned, “History will judge whether the U.S. faced up to the Shiite threat in time to prevent Iran from acquiring a military nuclear capability.” But further posts indicated some wiggle room: “Anyone who wants to prevent the exercise of military power must see that additional biting sanctions are applied,” he wrote.

Mr. Lieberman, who frequently diverges from Mr. Netanyahu, said on television last week, “There is no situation in which Israel can accept a nuclear Iran.”

The divisions in the cabinet — and more broadly in Israel — are not along the usual left-right or hawk-dove lines. The disputes are mainly over how best to engage the United States.

“Remember, it’s whether to attack now or attack later; it’s not between peaceniks and warmongers,” Mr. Melman said. “The argument against is don’t hurt the U.S. relationship, don’t risk relations with the president just for the satisfaction of conducting an attack before the election.”

David Makovsky of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who spent more than a decade in Israel, said “the center of political gravity could shift very quickly” if the Obama administration does not do something more.

Martin S. Indyk, a former United States ambassador to Israel who is now foreign policy director of the Brookings Institution, said he was struck that Israel had in recent weeks begun to distribute gas masks, examine bomb shelters and enact a text-messaging warning system.

Uzi Arad, a former national security adviser for Israel, recalled accompanying Mr. Netanyahu — then the leader of the opposition — to a meeting with Vice President Dick Cheney in 2007. The Israelis argued that the only thing with “sufficient punch” to stop Iran from developing a weapon, Mr. Arad said, was crippling sanctions, including measures against the energy sector, “coupled with a clear and present credible military option that continuing the program would not succeed because inevitably it will bring military action.”

Five years later, those around Mr. Netanyahu are saying much the same thing, and may be growing tired of waiting.

US-Israel military drill, HFC exercise to be held simultaneously – Israel News, Ynetnews.

( To quote P.W. Bridgeman “Coincidences are what are left over after you’ve applied a bad theory.” – JW )

Home Front Command annual disaster simulation drill, joint Israel-US ‘Austere Challenge 12’ drill set to begin on same day at end of October but officials say date is ‘coincidence’

Yoav Zitun

The Home Front Command and the US and Israeli militaries will hold separate drillswhich will begin at the same time at the end of October.

The Home Front Command will hold its annual drill, Turning Point 6, while the US military and IDF will launch joint military maneuvers.

The Home Front drill will simulate an earthquake scenario but will also include Home Front Command, fire and rescue services, police and Magen David Adom drills which will simulate disaster sites as a result of rocket attacks.  

Home Front Command drill in 2010

The military drill which has been called the “biggest drill both armies have ever held” will simulate a rocket attack on Israel.

The date of both the drills was postponed several times over the past year. Military sources explained that “there was no link between the two drills and the overlapping dates are a coincidence.”

Home Front Command Chief Brigadier General Eyal Eisenberg commented on the symmetry of the two emergency scenarios last week: “The newspaper headlines are focusing on Iran but earthquakes are also national disasters. If we know how to get through that scenario we will be ready for any challenge.”

The military drill “Austere Challenge 12,” will include deployment of a variety of advanced American aerial defense systems which are supposed to dramatically improve the way Israeldeals with missile and rocket barrages and will serve as reinforcements for the Iron Dome and Arrow 2 systems (which are meant to intercept long range missiles).

Home Front Defense Minister Avi Dichter, whose ministry is responsible for the “Turning Point 6” drill said that the date of the national emergency week was determined six months ago: “The purpose of the military drill is preparing the State of Israel for the first time for the consequences of an earthquake with all its repercussions.”

Speaking last week at a meeting with senior Home Front Command officials, Dichter said: “Our goal is to contain the threat so that if we decide to launch an assault – we do it at a convenient time for us. Happily, we have yet to go through a mass casualty catastrophic event that includes hundreds or thousands of fatalities.

“We must do everything within our power to prevent that kind of catastrophe, even if its missiles that will get through the defensive layers we’ve constructed,” Dichter added.

Israel under international pressure not to attack Iran alone – Yahoo! News.

Disappointing Israel, Clinton says US won’t set deadlines for Iran | The Times of Israel.

Netanyahu has been hoping Obama will specify ‘red lines’ that, if crossed by Iran, would prompt US military action

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, in Netanyahu’s office in Jerusalem, in July (photo credit: Ohad Zwigenberg/POOL/FLASH90)

The US will not set deadlines for Iran and still considers negotiations and sanctions the best way to halt it from developing nuclear weapons, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Sunday.

The comments were sure to disappoint Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week welcomed reports that the US was considering setting out “red lines” which, if crossed by Iran, would trigger US military action.

Asked if the Obama administration will lay out sharper “red lines” for Iran or state explicitly the consequences for Tehran of its failing to negotiate a deal with world powers over its nuclear program by a certain date, Clinton told Bloomberg, “We’re not setting deadlines.”

“We’re watching very carefully about what they do, because it’s always been more about their actions than their words,” Clinton said in an interview following visits to China and Russia, where she spoke with leaders of both countries to seek cooperation on Iran.

Clinton said China and Russia share the US’s view that Iran must be stopped from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

The possibility of the US announcing its “red lines” on Iran had appeared to be playing a role in calming tensions in the last few days between Israel and the US, which have been publicly at odds in recent weeks over how best to halt the Islamic republic’s nuclear drive.

Last week, after the New York Times reported that the administration was considering setting out certain red lines that, if crossed by Iran in its nuclear drive, would trigger a resort to military force, Netanyahu welcomed the idea. “The greater the resolve and the clearer the red line, the less likely we’ll have conflict,” he said.

A report on Israel’s Channel 10 news last week went so far as to assert that Israel would not attack Iran this year if President Barack Obama sets out his “red lines” and offers certain other promised assurances to Netanyahu at a meeting between the two tentatively scheduled for Thursday, September 27.

The station reported that the two leaders will meet the day after the Jewish High Holiday of Yom Kippur (which falls on September 26), when Netanyahu will be in New York to address the UN General Assembly.

“If Obama gives Israel the promised ‘red lines’ and his personal commitments, Israel will not attack Iran,” the report detailed.

US efforts to dissuade Israel from a resort to force included a visit last week by Admiral James A. Winnefeld, Jr., the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Winnefeld met with Defense Minister Ehud Barak in Tel Aviv on Thursday. After their talks, Barak said the US and Israel “face the same challenge [on Iran] but the clocks are ticking at different paces.” He said “Israel reserves the right to make sovereign decisions. The US respects this. Israel and Israel alone will take the decisions that affect its future and its security.”

Clinton addressed the differences between Israel and the US in her Sunday interview, saying that while the two countries share the goal that Iran not acquire a nuclear weapon, there is a difference in perspective with the Israelis over the time horizon for talks.

“They’re more anxious about a quick response because they feel that they’re right in the bull’s-eye, so to speak,” Clinton said. “But we’re convinced that we have more time to focus on these sanctions, to do everything we can to bring Iran to a good-faith negotiation.”

Asked what Israel was telling the Obama administration behind closed doors, Clinton said, “I don’t think that there’s any difference in their public and their private concerns.”

“They feel that it would be an existential threat if Iran were a nuclear-weaponized state, and no nation can abdicate their self-defense if they feel that they’re facing such a threat,” she said.

At the same time, Clinton said Israel has supported the Obama administration’s effort to unite the international community behind the toughest sanctions ever.

“The sanctions, we know, are having an effect,” she said.

Israel’s defence plans reinforced against possible Iranian counterattack | World news | guardian.co.uk.

Gas masks have been handed out and warning systems trialled as Binyamin Netanyahu steps up talk of war with Iran

Israelis wait to collect gas masks in Jerusalem – 60% of the country already has a ‘personal protection kit’. Photograph: Jim Hollander/EPA

Israel has stepped up its home front defence measures against possible retaliatory attacks amid continued speculation about an Israeli military strike against Iran‘s nuclear sites.

As well as the deployment of active defence systems against incoming missiles, the distribution of gas masks, provision of bomb shelters and the testing of public information systems have accelerated.

In recent months, there has been an increase in demand for gas masks and inquiries about bomb shelters in parallel with the rising rhetoric emanating from the prime minister’s office. But many citizens remain sceptical: participation in civil defence drills, for example, remains low.

Danny Avram, the owner of a bomb shelter construction and renovation firm, Ani Mugan (“I Am Protected”), said inquiries had increased tenfold over the past three weeks, although actual orders of work had only doubled. “The last few weeks have been very intense,” he said. “There has been more talk, and the possibility has seemed more realistic to people. This happens every time something significant happens in the news. Bad news is good for business.”

The distribution of gas masks to civilians has risen month by month since the spring. According to the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF), 17,573 kits were distributed in April, 38,775 in May, 41,242 in June and around 70,000 in July. But at least 40% of the 7.8 million population is still without a “personal protection kit”. Yoav Cohen, of the military equipment firm Hagor, said the government was short of 3m gas masks, which he said would take months to manufacture.

Expectation of an imminent Israeli strike has been tempered in recent days by suggestions that President Barack Obama may be preparing to clarify the “red lines” set by Washington regarding the Iranian nuclear programme, beyond which the US will take action.

Some observers believe that the intention of the Israeli rhetoric has all along been to force the US to take a more robust position. However, others point to Netanyahu’s lack of trust in the Obama administration and belief that Israel must be self-reliant in safeguarding its existential interests.

Officials say that reinforcement of homeland defence measures are necessary, regardless of the possibility of war in the coming months. An official commission of inquiry into the war with Lebanon in 2006 found serious deficiencies in home front defence.

The commission’s chairman, the former supreme court judge Eliyahu Winograd, this week questioned whether the country had learned sufficient lessons for the possible war ahead. “We can expect a rain of missiles from all directions and I don’t know how well the home front is prepared,” he said.

But according to Yechiel Kuperstein, who was head of the home front command’s physical protection unit during the last war, “the level of awareness is much higher than it was during 2006. If we faced the same level of threat, we would be OK. But the threat is going to be completely different, from another scale. Then the only thing you can do is cover the population with concrete.”

Israel’s military intelligence chief, Major General Aviv Kochavi, told a conference this year that an estimated 200,000 missiles and rockets were aimed at Israel and could be deployed by Iran’s allies in the event of a war.

The military says they include at least 60,000 missiles located in Lebanon and controlled by Hezbollah, plus thousands more in Syria and Gaza. The number of missiles in Iranian hands is unknown.

These missiles are expected to reach further than before, with Tel Aviv expected to be a major target, along with cities, towns and small communities closer to the borders with Lebanon and Gaza.

Even so, Israel’s defence minister, Ehud Barak, has suggested the number of Israeli casualties is unlikely to exceed 500. “There is no way to prevent some damage,” he said last November. “It will not be pleasant. There is no scenario for 50,000 dead, or 5,000 killed – and if everyone stays in their homes, maybe not even 500 dead.”

Israel has a government ministry devoted to home front defence. Its head is Avi Dichter, a former head of the internal security agency, Shin Bet, who was appointed last month. Netanyahu said at the time: “We’re investing billions in protecting the home front. We’re updating our early warning systems and our civil defence systems … as well as other forms of protection.”

The Israeli military also has a home front command, created 20 years ago following the Gulf war, aimed at “protecting and informing the citizen population”.

The government has reinforced underground bunkers in both Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, to which key personnel will relocate in the event of war.

Defence plans

• Missile defence

The Iron Dome mobile anti-missile system has been deployed by Israel to intercept rockets fired from Gaza since April 2011, with a claimed 80% success rate. Israel has four Iron Dome batteries, which are mobile, and two further batteries are expected to be operational in the near future. Last year, the US contributed more than $200m (£126m) in funding for and development of the Iron Dome system. The Arrow anti-ballistic missile defence system is designed to intercept long-range surface-to-air missiles. Arrow III is in development.

• Bomb shelters

All new buildings, both residential and commercial, constructed in Israel in the past 20 years have been required by law to include shelters. Around 30% of homes are estimated to have a reinforced safe room, but an estimated 25% of the population have no easy access to a bomb shelter.

Tel Aviv, Israel’s second largest city but one that is likely to be the main target of incoming missiles, has designated 60 underground spaces, mostly car parks, to act as emergency public shelters in the event of war. The city has 240 official public bomb shelters, capable of holding 40,000 people – around 10% of Tel Aviv’s population.

The northern city of Haifa, within reach of missiles from Lebanon, is planning to use an underground road tunnel as an emergency shelter.

The IDF’s home front command website includes advice to families to designate a secure space or room within their home of at least five square metres.

• Public alerts

Last month, Israel conducted a week-long trial of an SMS missile warning system for civilians. Alerts in four languages – Hebrew, Arabic, English and Russian – were sent to mobile phones. In the event of war, text messages will contain “location-specific warnings based on the trajectory of rockets or missiles”, according to the IDF. Public alerts and information are also expected to be issued by television stations operating from emergency studios.

• Evacuation

The home front ministry has discussed plans for the mass evacuation of civilians in cities in northern and central Israel to the Red Sea resort of Eilat and the southern desert area of Arava, according to Israeli media reports. Schools and hotels would be requisitioned, along with the provision of tents and caravans, to accommodate evacuees. The former home front minister Matan Vilnai said in June: “I have spoken to council heads in the Eilat district and they appreciate the importance of hosting residents of central and northern Israel at times of emergency.”

Clinton: US ‘not setting deadlin… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

Lower Chance that Israel Will Strike Iran – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

IRAN

AFP agency

The chances that Israel will soon strike Iran’s nuclear facilities have gone down significantly, a senior Israeli Cabinet Minister told Channel 2 News on Sunday night.

The Minister, whose identity was not disclosed, said that the increasing isolation of Iran in the international community has reduced the chances that Israel would go at it alone and strike Iran.

That move to isolate Iran, he said, was reflected by Canada’s announcement on Friday that it would cut off diplomatic ties with the Islamic Republic.

He added that the fact that a strike in Iran is a drastic move that is not considered legitimate by the United States, the international community and Europe, as well as a large chunk of the Israeli public, would make it very difficult to materialize.

Channel 2 reported that the position presented by the Minister is also shared by other members of the Cabinet, particularly in light of the European pressure on Israel to hold off on striking Iran.

On Friday, it was reported that several European Union nations are exploring a new raft of sanctions against Iran as exasperation mounts over blocked talks on the country’s contested nuclear program.

“We might have to decide soon a new round of sanctions in the European Union,” German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said during informal talks in Cyprus with his 26 EU counterparts.

He added, “I see a growing consensus between my colleagues. We will not accept a nuclear weapon for Iran.”

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said all foreign ministers who spoke on the issue at the talks favored fresh punitive measures against Iran and that work to agree financial, trade and oil sanctions would begin “in the coming days.”

The last round of EU sanctions, a damaging oil embargo, came into effect on July 1, adding to U.S. financial sanctions aimed at shutting off Iran’s oil exports, which account for half of government revenues.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague on Friday said that EU sanctions were having “a serious impact” and that “it is necessary to increase the pressure on Iran, to intensify sanctions, to add further to the EU sanctions.”

The Minister who spoke to Channel 2 said that military action by Israel would only interfere with the European sanctions and not allow them to bear fruit.

Westerwelle was in Israel on Sunday, where he said that a nuclear-armed Iran was “not an option” and called on Tehran to hold “substantial negotiations” over its nuclear program.

“We share the Israeli concerns about Iran’s nuclear program,” Westerwelle said at the beginning of a meeting with Defense Minister Ehud Barak in Jerusalem.

“A nuclear-armed Iran would not only pose a threat to Israel but to the stability of the entire region. A nuclear-armed Iran is not an option,” he said.

Reports last week indicated that preparations are currently underway for a meeting between Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Barack Obama after Yom Kippur, when Netanyahu arrives in the U.S. to speak at the United Nations General Assembly.

It is believed that during the meeting, Obama will explain to Netanyahu his “red lines” regarding Iran, in hopes that this will lead to Israel agreeing to postpone an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, for a period of several months to half a year.

U.S. Attack on Iran Would Take Hundreds of Planes, Ships, and Missiles | Danger Room | Wired.com.

Should the U.S. actually take Benjamin Netanyahu’s advice and attack Iran, don’t expect a few sorties flown by a couple of fighter jocks. Setting back Iran’s nuclear efforts will need to be an all-out effort, with squadrons of bombers and fighter jets, teams of commandos, rings of interceptor missiles and whole Navy carrier strike groups — plus enough drones, surveillance gear, tanker aircraft and logistical support to make such a massive mission go. And all of it, at best, would buy the U.S. and Israel another decade of a nuke-free Iran.

There’s been a lot of loose talk and leaked tales about what an attack on Iran might ultimately entail. Anthony Cordesman, one of Washington’s best-connected defense analysts, has put together a remarkably detailed inventory of what it would take to strike Iran (.pdf), cataloging everything from the number of bombers required to the types of bombs they ought to carry. He analyzes both Israeli and American strikes, both nuclear and not. He examines possible Iranian counterattacks, and ways to neutralize them. It leads Cordesman to a two-fold conclusion:

* “Israel does not have the capability to carry out preventive strikes that could do more than delay Iran’s efforts for a year or two.” Despite the increasingly sharp rhetoric coming out of Jerusalem, the idea of Israel launching a unilateral attack is almost as bad as allowing Tehran to continue its nuclear work unchallenged.  It would invite wave after wave of Iranian counterattacks — by missile, terrorist, and boat — jeopardizing countries throughout the region. It would wreak havoc with the world’s oil supply. And that’s if Israel even manages to pull the mission off — something Cordesman very much doubts.

* The U.S. might be able to delay the nuclear program for up to 10 years. But to do so, it’ll be an enormous undertaking. The initial air strike alone will “require a large force allocation [including] the main bomber force, the suppression of enemy air defense system[s], escort aircraft for the protection of the bombers, electronic warfare for detection and jamming purposes, fighter sweep and combat air patrol to counter any air retaliation by Iran.”

But the first attack might actually be the easy part, writes Cordesman, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

At the same time, the U.S. has to keep Iran from blocking the ultra-important Strait of Hormuz, the 21-mile-wide waterway through which flows around 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquid natural gas supplies. And America has to protect its energy-producing allies in the Persian Gulf, or else there will be no oil or gas to send through the Strait.

That will be no mean task, Cordesman writes: “Iran can cherry pick its targets in an effort to pressure and intimidate the U.S. and Southern Gulf states. It can use long-range conventionally armed missiles or drones against large military or urban targets as terror weapons. It can attack sporadically and unpredictably in a war of attrition or attempt to ‘swarm’ U.S. and Gulf naval forces.”

Some of this defensive work has already begun. To keep the Strait open, the U.S. has kept up a steady patrol of aircraft carriers and stationed gunboats, minesweepers, and robot subs in nearby Bahrain. To spot Iran’s missiles — many of which can hit their targets in as little as four minutes — the U.S. is building a next-generation X-band radar station in Qatar. To knock those short- and medium-range ballistic missiles out of the sky, America has sold billions of dollars’ worth of Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Air Defense interceptors to Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. Those anti-missiles will be augmented by U.S. Navy cruisers and destroyers equipped with Aegis ballistic-missile defense systems — one of the most-proven components in the American interceptor stockpile.

But to make sure Tehran’s missiles don’t hit Riyadh or Kuwait City, the U.S. will have to take out Iran’s eight ballistic-missile bases and 15 missile production facilities, and 22 launch facilities if a preemptive strike is ever ordered. America will “need to destroy as many missile launchers as possible … in order to reduce number of incoming warheads,” Cordesman writes. Each target will require two aircraft each — either carrier-launched F/A-18s or F-15Es and F-16Cs flying from nearby air bases — for a total of 90 jets. Auxiliary targets could include Iran’s refineries, its power grid, its military bases, and its roads and bridges.

American jets and fighters will be pretty much free to fire at will — the Iranian air force is a joke, and its air defense systems don’t have the sensors or the networking to seriously threaten U.S. jets. Still, those air defenses and enemy fighters will have to be taken out before they manage to get off a lucky shot.

Drones will be deployed for further intelligence, “deception, jamming, harassment, or destruction of enemy forces and air defense systems.” Special operations forces will conduct “direct action missions, special reconnaissance, and provide terminal guidance for attacks against valuable enemy targets.” Somehow, attacks from Iran’s terrorist allies — including Hamas and Hezbollah — will have to be blunted, as well.

And then, of course, there’s the main attack.

Destroying each of Iran’s five nuclear facilities will require a pair of B-2 bombers flying out of Diego Garcia. Every plane will carry two of the U.S. military next-gen, king-sized bunker-busters, the 30,000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordinance Penetrator. The “GPS-guided weapon contain[s] more than 5,300 pounds of conventional explosives inside a 20.5 foot-long bomb body of hardened steel. It is designed to penetrate dirt, rock and reinforced concrete to reach enemy bunker or tunnel installations,” writes Cordesman, who believes such a bomb can set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions for years.

Israel might — might — be able to pull off a similar strike, but only just barely. It’ll require using a quarter of the Israel Air Force’s fighters, and all of its tanker planes, leaving no aircraft for all these other secondary targets. The jets will have to hug the Syrian-Turkish border before flying over both Iraq and Iran. And that is not exactly friendly territory. “The number of aircraft required, refueling along the way and getting to the targets without being detected or intercepted would be complex and high risk and would lack any assurances that the overall  mission will have a high success rate,” Cordesman writes.

And even if the reactors are hit, the ”Iranian retaliation will have a devastating regional consequences,” he adds. You don’t even want to know what the Middle East would look like the day after Israel attempts a nuclear strike on Iran.

Which leaves the American attack option. It may be technically possible. “It’s clear that if the United States did it we would have a hell of a bigger impact,” Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said in the spring. Cordesman would rather see negotiations instead: “The brief shows just how dangerous any war in the Gulf could be to the world’s economy.” Some politicians may be calling for a preemptive strike on Iran. There’s a reason military planners are so wary.

Iran set to unveil homegrown medium-range cruise missile | The Times of Israel.

‘Our enemies will never be able to withstand the tide of Iranian missiles,’ deputy defense minister says

A missile displayed during a military parade outside Tehran. Iran has continued to buy weaponry despite sanctions. (photo credit: AP/Vahid Salemi)

Iran is set to unveil a new homegrown medium-range cruise missile which can hit anywhere in Israel, Deputy Defense Minister Mahdi Farahi said on Sunday.

The announcement came amid prolonged tension surrounding Iran’s unsanctioned uranium enrichment program and speculation regarding a possible Israeli attack on Tehran’s nuclear facilities.

“The Meshkat cruise missile, which God willing will be unveiled soon, has a range of more than 2,000 kilometers. It will be the upper hand of the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Farahi was quoted by PressTV as saying on Sunday.

“Our enemies will never be able to withstand the tide of Iranian missiles,” Farahi told Fars news agency, adding that the missile could be fired from land, air and sea.

Farahi also dismissed Israel’s Iron Dome missile interception system. “If the Iron Dome could protect Israel, then how could so many rockets hit it,” he said, referring to ongoing rocket fire into Israel from Gaza.

Iran is working on its own homegrown anti-missile system, which it announced last week was 30 percent completed.

The Sunday Times of London reported earlier on Sunday that Israel is in possession of a specially designed electromagnetic bomb capable of demolishing Iran’s electric network in the event of a military conflict between the countries.

Germany urges Iran to make “substantial” nuclear offers – AlertNet.

JERUSALEM, Sept 9 (Reuters) – Germany’s foreign minister on Sunday urged Iran to make “substantial offers” to restart nuclear talks with world powers and told Israel allowing the Islamic Republic to get the bomb was “not an option”.

Guido Westerwelle’s comments, made during a visit to Jerusalem, followed weeks of rhetoric in Israel over a possible go-it-alone strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities and calls by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for world powers to set a “red line” for Tehran.

Westerwelle, whose country, together with France, Britain, Russia, China and the United States, has held three rounds of inconclusive talks with Iran this year, said there was still time for a diplomatic solution but warned Iran not to try to acquire nuclear weapons.

“Nuclear arms in the hands of the Iranian government is not an option and we will not accept this,” he said as he met Netanyahu.

Germany and other countries want Iran to open up its nuclear facilities to international scrutiny and to provide proof that its civilian nuclear programme does not have a military dimension.

“We share the concern in Israel about the nuclear programme in Iran,” Westerwelle told reporters in earlier talks with Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak on Sunday.

“But it is serious, and it’s crucial, and this means that talks for the sake of talks is not what we are seeking,” he added.

“And therefore we call on the government in Iran to come back to the table with substantial offers, which is very necessary and very crucial at this time.”

At a meeting of European Union foreign ministers in Cyprus on Friday, Germany, Britain and France called for new EU sanctions against Iran.

The ministers did not say what further measures the EU could take. The 27-nation bloc banned imports of Iranian oil and isolated its banking system in the last round of sanctions that came into full force in July.

The sanctions appear to have contributed to a collapse in the Iranian currency which plunged to an all-time low on Sunday. Central Bank Governor Mahmoud Bahmani said: “We are fighting with the world in an economic sense.”

“The conditions we are in are war conditions,” Bahmani added, according to the Iranian Students’ News Agency.

The sanctions are aimed at forcing Iran to curb nuclear activities that the West believes are aimed at developing a nuclear weapons capability, an allegation Tehran denies.

Iran says its nuclear work is for peaceful energy purposes and that it will not bend to pressure from the West.

Israel, believed to be the only nuclear-armed state in the Middle East, views the possibility of Iran developing a nuclear bomb as a threat to its existence and has said it may use military means if diplomacy and sanctions fail.

Addressing his Cabinet on Sunday, Netanyahu hailed Canada’s decision on Friday to cut diplomatic relations with Iran over its nuclear activities.

“I call on the entire international community, or at least on its responsible members, to follow in Canada’s determined path and set Iran moral and practical red lines, lines that will stop its race to achieve nuclear weapons,” Netanyahu said.