Guessing Israel’s Iran Plans « Commentary Magazine.

Seth Mandel | @SethAMandel 09.28.2012 – 12:55 PM

Now the rhetoric on Iran must be translated ‘into practice,’ Netanyahu says | The Times of Israel.

Day after his UN cartoon bomb speech, PM claims his red-line message is ‘reverberating around the world’

NEW YORK — Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday reinforced his call to stop Iran’s race toward nuclear weapons, saying that the nearly universal consensus on the Iranian question needs to be put “into practice.”

It is important to “translate the agreement and principle of stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons to practice,” Netanyahu said at a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper. “In practice, that means setting red lines on their enrichment process. It’s their only discernible and vulnerable part of their nuclear program.”

“I think that if such red lines are set, I believe that Iran will back off,” he added.

A spokesman for the prime minister told reporters: “The Iranian leadership needs to understand in clear and certain terms that there are actions by them that will cause a reaction by the international community that will not be in their interest.”

Netanyahu said his speech at the United Nations General Assembly on Thursday “reverberates now around the world” and is being widely discussed.

At his much-covered speech, Netanyahu set a red line for Iran, and underlined the demand by literally drawing it onto a cartoon bomb. He asserted that the regime, if unhindered, will move to the final stage of uranium enrichment needed for a nuclear weapon “by next spring, at most by next summer.”

On Thursday afternoon, after his speech, Netanyahu met with UN Secretary Ban Ki-Moon, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton.

“The meeting with Clinton was a pure one-on-one meeting,” an Israeli official said, adding that no advisers were present; no direct quotes from the meeting were released.

“They had an in-depth discussion on Iran, and reaffirmed that the United States and Israel share the goal of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon,’ a senior US State Department official told reporters about the meeting with Clinton. “They agreed that we will continue our close consultation and cooperation toward achieving that goal.”

With Ban Ki-moon, Netanyahu discussed several issues, including Iran, Syria, and the prospects of peace with the Palestinians, an official said.

Originally, Netanyahu was also scheduled to meet with European Union foreign-policy chief Catherine Ashton, but the meeting was cancelled a few days ago, reportedly because of scheduling difficulties.

On Friday morning, Netanyahu’s meeting with Harper was also off-limits to reporters, with only a photo-op after the meeting.

High-ranking diplomats and community leaders did attend, including Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Ron Prosor, and his deputy Haim Waxman; one of Prosor’s predecessors, Dan Gillerman; former US ambassador to the UN John Bolton; and Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations head Malcolm Hoenlein.

After his meeting with Harper, the prime minister gave interviews to Israeli television stations, which will be aired on Saturday night.

Later on Friday, the prime minister was scheduled to speak by phone with US President Barack Obama.

The relationship between the two leaders is currently tense — notably over the issue of the timing and urgency of thwarting Iran. Obama’s office rebuffed Netanyahu’s request for a face-to-face meeting with the president on this trip. Netanyahu’s staff suggested that the prime minister travel to Washington to accommodate Obama, but the White House would not arrange a meeting, citing scheduling difficulties.

Netanyahu was also reportedly set to speak Friday with Republican presidential challenger Mitt Romney.

Earlier Friday, US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta reiterated the goal that “the US and Israel and the international community can work together” to prevent Iran attaining a nuclear weapon — “hopefully” through peaceful means.

Israel Hayom | A sigh of relief at the White House.

Dan Margalit

White House: Obama, Netanyahu to talk – UPI.com.

WASHINGTON, Sept. 28 (UPI) — President Obama will likely phone Israel’s premier Friday, a day after Binyamin Netanyahu thanked him for warning Iran about nuclear arms, the White House said.

Netanyahu was to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in New York Thursday evening, “and I expect the president will have a follow-up phone call with the prime minister probably Friday,” White House spokesman Jay Carney said in a rare instance of the White House previewing a call with a foreign leader.

Some critics have said Obama snubbed the Israeli leader by not meeting with him in person. The White House denied the allegation. Officials also denied Israeli media reports saying Obama refused an Israeli request for a meeting with Netanyahu in Washington, saying such a request was never made.

The two leaders have had a public dispute over how to confront Iran over its nuclear program.

But Netanyahu Thursday thanked Obama before the U.N. General Assembly for a warning Obama gave Iran in his own General Assembly speech Tuesday.

Obama said he would not tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran and said time was running out before Washington would consider options beyond diplomacy and sanctions to ensure Iran doesn’t obtain nuclear arms.

“I very much appreciate the president’s position, as does everyone in my country,” Netanyahu said.

The Israeli leader emphasized Israel’s solidarity with the United States, saying, “Israel is in discussions with the United States over this issue, and I am confident that we can chart a path forward together.”

His remarks were widely viewed as attempting to smooth over differences with the Obama administration over the urgency of what both countries view as an Iranian nuclear threat.

Netanyahu, who said Washington and Jerusalem were working toward a “common goal” on Iran, also said his deadline for a military strike was well past November’s U.S. presidential election — perhaps as late as next summer.

The White House and U.S. military planners had worried about a possible “October surprise” attack by Israel, The New York Times reported.

U.S., Israeli and European officials, supported by U.N. weapons inspectors, maintain Iran plans to build nuclear weapons.

Tehran insists its nuclear program is for peaceful civilian uses only.

But in meetings with reporters and academics during the General Assembly, Iranian officials, including President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, refused to rule out the possibility Iran would continue producing 20 percent-enriched uranium, even though it has enough to run its medical reactor for six to 10 years, the Times said.

Twenty-percent enrichment puts Iran on the cusp of weapons-grade uranium.

UN inspectors in ‘… JPost – Iranian Threat – Opinion & Analysis.

Netanyahu meets US officials after UN speech – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Prime minister meets Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and New York mayor after General Assembly speech. Michael Bloomberg says Netanyahu made compelling argument

Yitzhak Benhorin

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with senior US officials on Thursday after his speech at the United Nations General Assembly in which he stressed the need to draw a red line for Iran‘s nuclear program.

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg told Netanyahu that the citizens of Israel stood by New Yorkers after the September 11 attacks and stated that terrorists will never succeed in causing the people of Israel and the US to renounce their beliefs, values and way of life.

“I thought President Obama gave an excellent speech in the UN, and he was absolutely right to say that Iran must not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons,” Bloomberg said before meeting with Netanyahu.

The New York mayor added that the prime minister made a compelling argument in explaining the need for a red line and expressed confidence that Washington and Jerusalem will shape a joint policy based on common interests.

Netanyahu and Bloomberg in New York (Photo: EPA)

Netanyahu on his part said that it was important “at this critical time” to be clear and determined in preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon stressing this could be a turning point in history.

“We’re in close consultations with the United States about this issue, about how to practically prevent Iran from moving ahead, how to make them abandon their nuclear weapons ambitions,” Netanyahu said.

“I believe this can be achieved and we shall continue to work towards this goal,” he told Bloomberg.

Netanyahu and Clinton (Photo: Avi Ohayon, GPO)

Later on Thursday, Netanyahu met with US Secretary of State Hillary. “They had an in-depth discussion on Iran, and reaffirmed that the United States and Israel share the goal of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon,” a senior State Department official said in a statement quoted by AFP.

“They agreed that we will continue our close consultation and cooperation toward achieving that goal.”

On Friday, Netanyahu is scheduled to talk to President Barack Obama over the phone.

Meanwhile, US officials expressed satisfaction with Netanyahu’s speech. US Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro said that the prime minister’s speech highlighted the fact that the US and Israel share a common goal of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and noted that Obama had “said the same things” at his own General Assembly speech two days earlier.

Earlier Thursday the White House stated that President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu share the goal of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and will maintain close cooperation on the issue.

But the White House stopped short of saying Obama would give any ground on his resistance to setting a “red line” on Iran’s nuclear program, even after the Israeli leader hammered on the need for such an ultimatum before the UN General Assembly.

AFP contributed to this report

White House irked by Netanyahu’s “red line” speech, reverts to Iran diplomacy.

DEBKAfile Special Report September 28, 2012, 7:53 AM (GMT+02:00)

Netanyahu’s red line shown to the UN

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton berated Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu for the powerful presentation of his case for confronting Iran with red lines instead of hitherto failed diplomacy and sanctions in his speech to the UN General Assembly Thursday, Sept. 27. This is reported by debkafile’s Washington sources.
Neither released a statement from their conversation of an hour and a quarter one-on-one shortly after the speech.
Our sources report that Clinton made it clear that President Barack Obama would not tolerate the Israeli prime minister having a say in his Iran agenda. He remained committed to diplomacy regardless of Netanyahu’s warning that it was getting “late, very late” to stop a nuclear Iran.
Clinton accordingly announced a decision by the world powers to go into another round of nuclear negotiations with Iran, although after the breakdown of diplomacy in July, they expected an improved Iranian offer. EU foreign executive Catherine Ashton was directed to get in touch with Iran’s nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalilee for another attempt to set up talks, although when the two officials met in Istanbul on Sept. 18, they made no headway.
debkafile: US steps early Friday Sept. 28 put the clock back five days to Monday when Obama dismissed Netanyahu’s advocacy of agreed red lines for warning Iran off its nuclear bomb program as “background noises” which he systematically blocked. This reversal came after White House and Israeli officials had begun discussing moving the critical timeline for that program to late spring, early summer 2013, instead of this year.
debkafile reported earlier:

Addressing the UN General Assembly Thursday, Sept. 27  Israel Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu graphically depicted Israel’s red line for Iran. He held up a simple diagram showing that Iran had covered 70 percent of the distance to a nuclear bomb and must be stopped before it reached the critical stage next spring or early summer of 2013.
He stressed that it is getting late, very late to stop a nuclear Iran.
The best way, he said, is to lay down a clear red line on the most vulnerable element of its nuclear program: uranium enrichment. “I believe that if faced with a clear and credible red line, Iran will back down and may even disband its program,” he said.

Red lines prevent wars, don’t start them and in fact deterred Iran from blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel and the US are in discussion over this issue, said Netanyahu. “I’m sure we can forge a way forward together.”
He went on to accuse Iran of spreading terrorist networks in two dozen countries and turning Lebanon and Gaza into terror strongholds. Hoping a nuclear-armed Iran will bring stability is like hoping a nuclear al Qaeda will bring world peace, the prime minister remarked.
debkafile quotes some Washington sources as disclosing that the White House and Israel emissaries have come to an understanding that Israel will hold back from attacking Iran’s nuclear sites before the US election in November, while a special team set up by President Barack Obama completes a new paper setting out the end game for Iran.
He put the team to work after concluding that negotiations with Iran had exhausted their usefulness. Gary Samore, top presidential adviser on nuclear proliferation, leads the team.
Netanyahu’s citing of late spring, early summer 2013, as the critical point on Iran’s path to a nuclear bomb appears to confirm that he has agreed to delay military action against Iran following negotiations with the White House on the next agreed steps. Our sources report that the prime minister was represented in those talks by Defense Minister Ehud Barak and National Security Adviser Yakov Amidror.
According to another view, which is current in Washington’s intelligence community, Israel was finally persuaded to delay by fresh intelligence presented by the Obama administration which showed that Israeli estimates were overly pessimistic in judging the timeline for Iran’s nuclear facilities to be buried in “immunity zones.” That timeline extended to spring 2013, leaving Israel five to six months up to April-May for ordering a military operation against those sites.
However, we have learned that Israeli intelligence circles dispute their American colleagues’ estimate as “interesting” but inaccurate.  Netanyahu, in his speech, confirmed that Washington and Jerusalem were constantly exchanging views and evaluations on the state of Iran’s nuclear program.
He also made the point that while intelligence services, American and Israeli alike, had remarkable aptitudes, their estimates on Iran were not foolproof. He was referrng to the Pentagon claim that when Iran was ready to build a bomb, American intelligence would know about it in good time.

Netanyahu’s cartoon wasn’t meant for world leaders, and not even for Obama | The Times of Israel.

Netanyahu is hoping to convince the American voter that Iran is as immediate a threat as he believes it to be. And through the voter, maybe even Obama himself

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shows an illustration as he describes his concerns over Iran’s nuclear ambitions during his address to the 67th session of the United Nations General Assembly at UN Headquarters on Thursday, Sept. 27, 2012. (photo credit: Richard Drew/AP)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu drew a torrent of ridicule Thursday when he unfolded before the General Assembly of the United Nations a cartoon bomb and drew a red line on it with a marker he pulled from his pocket.

It was a gimmick that ignited a wave of scorn and “Looney Tunes” jokes on social media sites.

Even some supporters of Israel, such as American journalist Jeffrey Goldberg, bemoaned Netanyahu’s use of the cartoon.

@JeffreyGoldberg

Jeffrey Goldberg

Okay, it’s official: #Netanyahu has no idea what he’s doing. He has just turned a serious issue into a joke.

about 7 hours ago via webReplyRetweetFavorite

But the image of the Israeli prime minister drawing with a bright red marker before the assembled delegates of the General Assembly – the very image mocked and belittled by pundits, observers and activists – was not meant for the delegates in the hall, or the journalists on Twitter.

Netanyahu’s speech was not even meant for US President Barack Obama, who may ultimately decide the fate of the Iranian nuclear program.

Instead, Netanyahu was speaking over Obama’s head, directly to the American president’s employer and boss: the American voter.

In the wake of his open disagreement with the US president in recent weeks over the timeline for stopping the Iranian nuclear program, Netanyahu has been accused – not least by leading Democratic members of the House of Representatives – of inserting himself into the American presidential election on the side of Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

Netanyahu has argued that the timing for his public calls for an American “red line” on Iran is unconnected to the American “electoral calendar,” but rather is driven by the Iranian “nuclear calendar.” Iran, he argued before the General Assembly on Thursday, will be able to build a nuclear weapon by next year.

But it was hard on Thursday to listen to Netanyahu’s speech – delivered in English, couched in simple language full of references to the Bible and Jewish history, and accompanied by what may be the most childish prop ever brought into the General Assembly general debate – and not see his words as intended for American popular consumption.

In fact, in making the case that Iran’s regime is dangerous – too dangerous to be trusted with nuclear weapons – some of the examples offered by Netanyahu clearly pointed to his intended audience.

“Just look at what the Iranian regime has done up till now, without nuclear weapons… They abetted the killing of American soldiers in Iraq and continue to do so in Afghanistan. Before that, Iranian proxies killed hundreds of American troops in Beirut and in Saudi Arabia. … In the last year, they’ve spread their international terror networks to two dozen countries across five continents – from India and Thailand to Kenya and Bulgaria. They’ve even plotted to blow up a restaurant a few blocks from the White House in order to kill a diplomat.”

A rumor among journalists suggested – though no source could confirm on Thursday – that Netanyahu was asked by the American administration to thank President Obama for his own rhetoric on Iran in his speech. It is, after all, campaign season.

If the rumor is true, Netanyahu disappointed, giving no ground to indicate he saw eye to eye with the US president.

“Two days ago, from this podium, President Obama reiterated that the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran cannot be contained,” he began. And while he noted, “I very much appreciate the President’s position as does everyone in my country,” he would only say that “Israel is in discussions with the United States over this issue, and I am confident that we can chart a path forward together.”

In fact, he offered a hinted admonishment, explaining to the American president, “What I have said today will help ensure that this common goal is achieved.”

In simple language, Netanyahu then laid out a beginner’s explanation of his position:

“Basically, any bomb consists of explosive material and a mechanism to ignite it. The simplest example is gunpowder and a fuse. That is, you light the fuse and set off the gunpowder,” he explained.

“In the case of Iran’s plans to build a nuclear weapon, the gunpowder is enriched uranium. The fuse is a nuclear detonator. For Iran, amassing enough enriched uranium is far more difficult than producing the nuclear fuse.”

Since for Iran it “takes many, many years to enrich uranium for a bomb,” and the enrichment must take place “in very big industrial plants,” during the enrichment phase, Iran’s program is “vulnerable.”

However, if Iran completes enrichment and is left with only a detonator to build – a device that can be manufactured “in a small workshop the size of a classroom” in a country “bigger than France, Germany, Italy and Britain combined” – it will be impossible to locate and destroy the program at that point.

“The relevant question is not when Iran will get the bomb. The relevant question is at what stage can we no longer stop Iran from getting the bomb,” Netanyahu concluded.

Netanyahu’s speech was aired, at least in part, on US cable networks. While pundits mocked, millions of Americans heard a simple, clear argument that Iran was quickly reaching a point when its nuclear program would be beyond the reach of Western intervention.

Netanyahu is electioneering. Whether he is actively working to undermine Obama’s Jewish support and bolster Romney’s candidacy is unclear. But there is little doubt he is using the few weeks left till election day, when a second-term Obama will likely not be as attentive or interested in what he has to say, to drill his point home at every opportunity.

Netanyahu is hoping to convince the American voter that Iran is as immediate a threat as he believes it to be. And through the voter, maybe even Obama himself.

Op-ed: Can Bibi finally overcome his tendency to procrastinate and do what must be done vis-à-vis Iran?

Yoel Meltzer

Published: 09.27.12, 21:28 / Israel Opinion

With the Iranian issue coming to a head, it’s both ironic and a bit worrisome that the weight of the fateful decision is resting squarely on the soldiers of Benjamin Netanyahu. For despite his enormous potential – intelligent, charismatic, superb oratory skills, in-depth knowledge of economic issues – and despite the fact that he’s been given chance after chance to be the type of Jewish leader that is so desperately lacking in Israel, Netanyahu has repeatedly failed to act at precisely those moments where his actions might have propelled the Jewish State in a very different and most likely healthier direction.

For starters, when he was first elected prime minister in 1996 there was anticipation amongst many in Israel that the newly elected Likud premier would stop the Oslo process, which the previous Labor government had initiated a few years earlier. However, rather than acting forcefully to halt an obviously irresponsible political gamble, one which included such insanities as arming Arafat’s “police force” in return for his solemn promise that the weapons would not be used against us, the new prime minister not only failed to stop the Oslo train but he even gave it a push by handing over control of nearly all of the ancient city of Hebron to the Palestinians. Thus a golden opportunity to stop Oslo early on, preventing much of the damage and destruction it eventually caused the Jewish state, was missed.

Then a few years later when all eyes from the right were focused on Netanyahu, waiting for the only man who was believed capable of stopping Ariel Sharon and his Disengagement Plan to finally take charge and lead the revolt, Netanyahu once again failed to live up to expectations and meekly backed down. Thus with no one left to stop Sharon the plan was eventually implemented and roughly 10,000 Jews were thrown out of their homes and into a life of misery, while the Gaza Strip was transformed into one of the largest missile launching pads in the world.

Even now, during his second stint as prime minister, one in which he has been rewarded with a coalition very much to his liking, Netanyahu has continued to shy away from taking decisive action on certain key issues, perhaps most notably vis-à-vis the State Attorney’s office and its total disregard for the government in issues related to Jewish settlement in Judea and Samaria.

Although his propensity to avoid taking a stand on issues which would require him to directly oppose various elements of the establishment has irritated many, on the issue of Iran, and regardless of what they’ll say about him in the New York Times, Netanyahu can no longer procrastinate. Even the United Nations, not exactly a good friend of Israel, has recently stated that by February 2013 Iran will have everything that is required to build a nuclear bomb.

Heavenly justice

True, many will say that having the necessary parts and the ability to build a bomb is not yet a bomb and therefore Israel should not take unilateral action. Of course many of these same people were also big supporters of Oslo and the Gaza Disengagement, political undertakings that led to the death of many Israelis and which in retrospect were based upon assumptions that were clearly wrong. Additionally, some of the statements against unilateral Israeli action are coming from people, many even with good intentions, who are living in countries very far from Israel and from any direct threat from Iran. Whatever the case, for the most part such voices should be discounted, and I can only hope that Netanyahu is not being influenced by them.

Likewise, any opposition to Israeli action from President Obama, the man whose naïve policies have empowered extremist forces in the Arab/Islamic world, or from Hillary Clinton, the Secretary of State who displayed her total lack of understanding of the Arab/Islamic world with her recent “how could this happen in a country we helped liberate?” comment, should not stop Israel from doing what is in its best interest.

At the end of the day, Netanyahu is going to have to make a decision and make it soon. Moreover, he will have to do this without the comfort of relying on the United States. Perhaps in some way this is heavenly justice, since for years Israeli leaders have been saying “never again”, meaning that we will never again sit back and passively be slaughtered while waiting for the world to help us, while in reality Israeli leaders for years have been shying away from taking bold action in dealing with various threats and instead have increasingly turned time and again to the United States and the rest of the international community for help.

Although the result of an Israeli strike, either alone or with the United States, will possibly mean war, the cost of Israeli inaction might be far worse. This is certainly clear to Prime Minister Netanyahu. The question is whether he will finally rise to the occasion and overcome his tendency of failing to act.

Yoel Meltzer is a freelance writer living in Jerusalem. He can be contacted via yoelmeltzer.com

via Decision time – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

After PM sets ‘red line,’ Iran v… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.