WarSclerotic

Cameron sends envoy to dissuade PM from Iran strike | The Times of Israel.

( I don’t believe anything can alter Netanyahu’s bottom line on Iran.  Nothing… – JW )

Warnings from Israel’s allies have altered Netanyahu’s position and spurred his new ‘red lines’ demand, report claims

A telephone call between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his British counterpart David Cameron prior to the Olympic games led Cameron to send an emissary to Israel to discuss the Jewish state’s plans regarding a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear program.

Two weeks ago the high-ranking UK official was in Jerusalem for secret talks with Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Haaretz reported Tuesday. The message from Downing Street: Do not undertake a unilateral attack on Iran at this time. The report cited an Israeli source who asked to remain anonymous.

The British do not favor a military attack on Iran. Rather, a multifaceted approach of tougher sanctions meant to result in greater diplomatic isolation and the crippling of its economy, continued negotiations and intelligence operations are preferred, according to the report. The emissary reportedly passed this on to members of Israel’s diplomatic and security communities.

According to the Israeli source, the Israeli leadership’s approach to Iran was influenced by Cameron’s message, a phone call between Netanyahu and German Chancellor Angela Merkel and repeated American statements in favor of diplomacy.

The report said that as a result of these messages Netanyahu and Barak have come to understand that an Israeli strike on Iran could severely harm its alliance with the United States, Britain, Germany and France, augmenting the negative repercussions of possible military response by Iran and its proxies.

The messages’ influence, the report said, can be seen in the last few weeks as Netanyahu has spoken publicly and repeatedly of the need for “red lines” to be set for the Iranian nuclear program. The report called this an adjustment of Netanyahu’s position.

On Sunday Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the US will not set deadlines for Iran and still considers negotiations and sanctions the best way to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons.

Asked if the Obama administration will lay out sharper red lines for Iran or state explicitly the consequences of Tehran failing to negotiate a deal with world powers over its nuclear program by a certain date, Clinton told Bloomberg news, “We’re not setting deadlines.”

“We’re watching very carefully about what they do, because it’s always been more about their actions than their words,” Clinton said in an interview following visits to China and Russia, where she spoke with leaders of both countries to seek cooperation on Iran.

Last week, after The New York Times reported that the administration was considering delineating certain red lines that, if crossed by Iran in its nuclear drive, would trigger a resort to military force, Netanyahu welcomed the idea. “The greater the resolve and the clearer the red line, the less likely we’ll have conflict,” he said.

In an interview with the CBC last week Netanyahu praised Canada’s recent surprise withdraw of diplomatic staff from Tehran and called the significance of its actions “the impact of example.” He said Israel is in close contact with Canada and hopes its actions will serve as an example for other nations in order to help create “clear red lines” for Iran regarding its nuclear weapons program.

The issue is “a clear delineation of a line that Iran cannot cross in its pursuit for nuclear weapons capability,” and that if Iran saw that “there is a chance” that it might take pause and think “before they cross that line.”

Netanyahu said Canada might influence other countries in laying out that line. “There are moments in history in which people have to take a moral stand, and there are moments in which the right thing to do is the smart thing to do, and Canada did the right thing and the smart thing.”

A report on Israel’s Channel 10 news last week went so far as to assert that Israel would not attack Iran this year if President Barack Obama sets out his “red lines” and offers certain other promised assurances to Netanyahu at a meeting between the two tentatively scheduled for Thursday, September 27.

Ron Friedman and Times of Israel Staff contributed to this report

Alerts.

( For what it’s worth.  Thanks to Blessmaster7.   To my Israeli readers, please verify any of what is claimed here.  I am in Eilat and have not seen massive military movements in the south. – JW )

My brother and his family live in Jerusalem – he is a minister – and a former Navy SEAL – his office is close to one of Israel ‘s largest underground military bases.

He called me last night which is very unusual – usually it is email.

He called to tell me that he is sending his family back to the US immediately due to what he is seeing happen within the last week and what he is being told by his military contacts in both the Israel and US military.

He said he is seeing with his own eyes military movements the likes of which he has never seen in his 20+ years in Israel .

What he called a massive redeployment and protective tactics of forces is underway.

Over the last two days he has seen anti-aircraft missile deployments throughout the Jerusalem area including 3 mobile units that he can see from his office windows.

In addition, he has seen very large Israeli armored columns moving fast toward the Sinia where Egypt has now moved in Armor.

There are reports of the top military leaders meeting with Israel ‘s Sr. Rabi which is something that has happened preceding every prior military campaign.

His admonition is to watch carefully and pray for Israel and its people.

He is convinced that barring something extraordinary Israel will attack Iran – with or without the US – and very soon.

It is the belief in Israel that Obama does not stand with Israel but with the Arab countries.

He has told me before that Israel will saber rattle from time to time but that this time is very different from what he is seeing and hearing.
He was at the Wailing Wall 2 days ago and there were hundreds of IDF soldiers there. As he was leaving he passed at least 20 military buses full of soldiers in route to the wall.

He has never seen this before either.

Just thought I would pass this along.
My brother is not an alarmist by any means.

When he talks like this it gets my attention for sure and usually I find he knows more than he shares.

There are reports that Israel is asking Obama to come to Israel immediately but they are being answered with silence.

My opinion is that I see the making of the perfect storm.

Panetta: US has a year if Iran d… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

( Is it just me?  Reading this made me sick to my stomach. – JW )

Photo: REUTERS/Larry Downing

An Iranian bomb would be a licence to destabilise | The Australian.

The US-Israel Dispute Over Iran – Op-Eds – Israel National News.

It is imperative that the public sparring come to an end and the lines of communication between the two leaders be clearer. The US ought to consider equipping Israel with enhanced military resources that would allow Israel to confront Iran at a later date, giving Western allies more time to pressure the Iranian regime.

While Netanyahu may have been too aggressive in his talks about the situation in Iran and the potential for a military strike, Obama felt the need to respond to every statement, ratcheting up the tension between the two.

Obama acts as though the most important war he is waging is against Netanyahu, not the one he should be conducting against Iran. His rage over what he sees as Netanyahu’s support for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is apparently driving him up the wall. Meanwhile, the Iranians are mocking the ability of these leaders to present a unified message.

Mixed Messages

The US has been frequently sending mixed and contradicting messages on Iran. While all of Obama’s spokespersons explain how supportive the president is of Israel and its security needs,and how determined he is to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons program, his chief advisers have made different statements.

The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, says he does not want US forces to be complicit in any Israeli strike in Iran, exposing Obama’s reluctance to use force against the Islamic Republic even after the US elections in November. Vice President Joseph Biden also raised questions about Obama’s determination to stop Iran after the elections. In an election speech, he accused Romney of being ready to go to war in Iran, implying that Obama is not.

On the same day that the Israeli newspaper Yediot Ahronot reported that the US indirectly conveyed a message to Iran – according to which it would not be dragged into hostilities if Iran refrains from retaliating against American targets in the event of an Israeli strike – the New York Times published an article based on a leak from the White House, stating that the US plans to take military measures in the Gulf to threaten and deter Iran.

On the same day,White House spokesman James Carney denied that US-Israelrelations were in a crisis and told Iran that while there is still time for diplomacy, “this window will not remain open forever.” These statements leave the observer confused about Obama’s intentions.

Disagreement Over the Effectiveness of Sanctions

The question at the heart of the matter is how much more time Obama is prepared to give to allow sanctions and diplomacy to work. The president says the sanctions are working, an assertion that Netanyahu flatly rejects. The problem is that when the two leaders discuss the sanctions process, they refer to two different phases.

The first phase consists of the sanctions that are designed to exert tremendous economic pressure on Iran’s leaders, while the second phase is the aftermath in which the hardships are expected to change Iran’s nuclear policy. When Obama claims that the sanctions are working he is referring to the first phase; he believes that Iranian leaders are feeling lots of economic pressure and that continued pressure will help alleviate the situation. When Netanyahu mentions failing sanctions, however, he is referring to the second phase, and believes that the hurting sanctions are not going to cause a change in Iranian nuclear policy.

The situation appears a lot more optimistic to Obama than it does to Netanyahu. Israel, however, is concerned with the Iranian procrastination in the negotiations, claiming that Iran talks merely to buy more time to develop the bomb.

Iran and the West have been locked in an impasse, as Iran wants the West to remove the sanctions, while the West wants Iran to stop enrichment. Neither side has been willing to budge thus far.

The mistrust between Obama and Netanyahu does not help.Obama does not like Netanyahu and is fearful of an Israeli attack before the elections. Netanyahu is skeptical about Obama’s policy and is not sure that the president will use force against Iran if sanctions and diplomacy fail.

Creating a Better Strategy to Stop Iran

This diplomatic row can be solved, but only when the war of words in the press ceases. The contradictory statements serve Iranian interests alone. Obama’s people are also displeased by these damaging verbal jabs and are discussing ways to calm Netanyahu down and prevent what they consider a premature Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear installations. Therefore, Netanyahu must  travel to Washington and meet privately with Obama. He should ask the president what he intends to do if and when diplomacy and sanctions fail and Iran continues towards the bomb.

Obama and Netanyahu must reach an agreement on the conditions that would give Israel, the US, and the international community a final opportunity to stop Iran without the use of force. It would be difficult for Israel to attack alone without firstr eaching understandings with Washington. Due to its superior military capabilities, America’s window of opportunity for striking Iran is much wider than Israel’s.Therefore, one of the solutions is to provide Israel with capabilities it does not currently possess, broadening Israel’s window of opportunity. The US may respond positively to such a request.

Iranian leaders feel that nuclear weapons would ensure the survival of their extreme Islamic regime. They may consider a change in their nuclear policy if they reach the conclusion that the continuing race to the bomb would endanger their regime. Only the combination of harsher sanctions, tough Western positions in future negotiations, and the threat of a credible military strike may bring about a change in the current Iranian nuclear strategy.

Secret negotiations between Obama and Netanyahu and creative solutions to the Iranian problem can put an end to the foolish dispute between the leaders.

When the president and prime minister come to an agreement on a red line that Iran will not be allowed to cross, they will be able to more effectively place pressure on Iranian leaders and work towards a solution to the crisis.

BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 181, September 10, 2012

Why Is Bibi Going Ballistic? – Jeffrey Goldberg – The Atlantic.

Sep 11 2012, 9:33 AM ET 8

Benjamin Netanyahu is taking off his gloves. He’s been taking them off for a while, but if press reports out of Israel are accurate, he’s boiling over with frustration at President Obama:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ramped up on Tuesday threats to attack Iran, saying if world powers refused to set a red line for Tehran’s nuclear program, they could not demand that Israel hold its fire.

“The world tells Israel ‘wait, there’s still time’. And I say, ‘Wait for what? Wait until when?’ Those in the international community who refuse to put red lines before Iran don’t have a moral right to place a red light before Israel,” Netanyahu, speaking in English, told reporters in a press conference with Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov.

By “the world,” please read, “Obama (and Cameron, and also the Germans). We know from Mike Rogers, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, that Netanyahu is “at wits’ end” over Obama’s decision not to provide the Iranians with clear red lines. Now we see the prime minister taking it to 11, stating in public what he previously stated only in private.

Why is he doing this?

My guess is that he’s saying what he’s saying because he knows he can’t attack, especially before the U.S. election, barring a yellow light from Obama, which he’s not getting. Sheer frustration at what he sees as Obama’s obtuseness is causing these undiplomatic outbursts.

Ehud Barak, the defense minister, who is his partner in confronting Iran, has apparently decided that attacking Iran now would risk Israel’s relationship with the U.S., and Bibi, who is a student of U.S.-Israel relations, understands why Barak thinks this way. It is almost impossible to believe that Netanyahu would risk alienating Congress, and the American people (he’s already alienated the President, or, to be fair, they’ve alienated each other) by attacking Iran against the stated wishes of the U.S. (It is not the attack itself that could risk alienating the affections of Congress and American citizens — it is the chance that Iran would retaliate by targeting U.S. interests, soldiers and civilians.)

Bibi is in a box, and he’s trying to bust it open, but he can’t. Given the direct warnings communicated to him from the Obama Administration and a number of European countries, it is very hard to see him doing anything except vent over the next two months. It’s not impossible that he would make the Holocaust calculus, which is to say, he believes that stopping a second Holocaust is worth the risk of alienating the U.S., but I think he also knows that we’re far from the moment when a second Holocaust might be possible to contemplate.

The alternative interpretation for all this: He’s planning on attacking very shortly and is laying the rhetorical groundwork, preemptively justifying his decision to the Israeli people. But again, this doesn’t seem likely to me.

Iran Continues Its Peaceful Work on Atomic Warheads – Jeffrey Goldberg – The Atlantic.

Sep 11 2012, 7:18 AM ET 19

From the Associated Press:

VIENNA–The U.N. atomic agency has received new intelligence that Iran has moved further toward the ability to build a nuclear weapon by advancing its work on calculating the destructive power of an atomic warhead, diplomats tell The Associated Press.
The diplomats say the information comes from Israel, the United States and at least two other Western countries and concludes that the work was done sometime within the past three years. The time-frame is significant because if the International Atomic Energy Agency decides that the intelligence is credible, it would strengthen its concerns that Iran has continued weapons work into the recent past–and may be continuing to do so.

Iranian leaders deny having anything other than the most peaceful of intentions for its nuclear program. People around the world believe them because the Iranian regime has shown itself to be very peaceful.

In other news, Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu is about to blow a gasket, one he didn’t already blow at the American ambassador to Israel, Dan Shapiro:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday launched an unprecedented verbal attack on the U.S. government over its stance on the Iranian nuclear program.

“The world tells Israel ‘wait, there’s still time’. And I say, ‘Wait for what? Wait until when?’ Those in the international community who refuse to put red lines before Iran don’t have a moral right to place a red light before Israel,” Netanyahu told reporters on Tuesday.

And finally, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Holocaust-denying president of Iran, will be addressing the United Nations General Assembly on Yom Kippur.

Israel Hayom | Israel chides Clinton for ‘speeding up Iran’s centrifuges’.

Israel Hayom | Iran’s useful idiots in Washington.

Israeli leader escalates feud with US over Iranian nuclear program – The Washington Post.

By Associated Press, Updated: Tuesday, September 11, 2:39 PM

JERUSALEM — Israel’s prime minister has expressed his dissatisfaction with Washington’s refusal to spell out what would provoke a U.S.-led military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.

Washington wants to give diplomacy and sanctions more time to try to pressure Iran to abandon its suspect nuclear work. In a message aimed at Israel, it said several times this week that deadlines or “red lines” are counterproductive.

But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says peaceful methods are not working, and Iran is getting closer to acquiring a nuclear bomb. His remarks have generated speculation Israel is readying to strike on its own.

Netanyahu said on Tuesday that “those in the international community who refuse to draw a red line on Iran have no moral right to draw a red line for Israel.”

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

© The Washington Post Company