Millions don’t have access to bomb shelters, gas masks, army warns | The Times of Israel.

Home Front Command head says much of country ill-prepared in case war breaks out

A man tries out a gas mask at a distribution center, July 25 , 2012. (photo credit: Noam Moskowitz/Flash90)

A quarter of the population does not have easy access to a bomb shelter or safe room, even as fears mount of a military  engagement with Syria or Iran.

The Israel Defense Forces Home Front Command said many regional authorities are still not prepared to deal with a regional war and millions of people are still without gas masks, Haaretz reported Wednesday.

According to the Home Front Command, only 53 percent of the population has gas masks and only 30% of households have a reinforced safety room. A quarter of the population does not have a bomb shelter in their building or even close by.

The inclusion of a reinforced safe room to provide protection against missile and bomb attacks has been a requirement in all new residential buildings since the 1990s. This replaces the former arrangement of installing bomb shelters beneath buildings or in communal locations.

Home Front Command sources estimate that a quarter to a third of regional authorities are not ready to deal with an emergency. The Gush Dan area is better prepared than outlying authorities.

However, in an interview with Haaretz, Home Front Command head Brig. Gen. Tzviki Tessler said the chance of a chemical weapon attack on Israel is low, even with the worrying developments in Syria.

“We are carefully following events in Syria,” Tessler said. He noted that there has been no change in the state of readiness of the Home Front Command.

While the goal of equipping 4.5 million people with masks by 2013 should be reached by the end of this year, Tessler said, he added that there was no target date for completing the provision of gas masks to all 7 million Israelis.

Last week, Home Front officer Eyal Eisenberg said that at any given time there are 200,000 missiles aimed at Israeli territory.

“You can see the process that is going on in Syria — that happened with Hezbollah, Hamas, and in Iran,” Tessler said. “It is a process of intensification that brings with it more than anything else missiles with a greater range, a greater number of missiles, and improved accuracy and increased warhead sizes.”

Concerns over Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile amid the turmoil of civil war in that country have seen an increasing number of Israelis arrive at countrywide distribution centers to obtain gas masks.

UN observers say jet fighters used against rebels in Aleppo | The Times of Israel.

Situation in Syria’s largest city escalates as rebels acquire tanks and heavy weapons

This image released by Shaam News Network purports to show a man walking past Syrian a military tank in Damascus, Syria (photo credit: AP/Shaam News Network/AP video)

DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) — The United Nations mission in Syria says its observers have witnessed government fighter jets opening fire on Aleppo, the country’s largest city.

In a briefing on Wednesday, mission spokeswoman Sausan Ghosheh also said the UN had confirmation that the rebels now have heavy weapons of their own, including tanks.

Ghosheh expressed concern over the situation in the northern city of Aleppo, where rebels have been battling government forces for the past 12 days.

She described “heavy use of heavy weapons, including tanks, helicopters, heavy machine guns, as well as artillery.”

Life for Aleppo’s 3 million residents has become increasingly unbearable as fighting there has entered its 11th day. While rebels seized two police stations, Syrian ground forces pummeled the opposition strongholds of Salaheddine and Seif al-Dawla in the city’s southwest, activists said. Government helicopters also pounded those neighborhoods.

“The regime couldn’t enter the neighborhoods so they were shelling from a distance with helicopters and artillery,” said Mohammed Nabehan, who fled Aleppo for the Kilis refugee camp just across the Turkish border some 30 miles (50 kilometers) away.

Nabehan and others said it was a struggle to find food.

“The humanitarian situation here is very bad,” Mohammed Saeed, an activist living in the city, told The Associated Press by Skype. “There is not enough food and people are trying to leave. We really need support from the outside. There is random shelling against civilians,” he added. “The city has pretty much run out of cooking gas, so people are cooking on open flames or with electricity, which cuts out a lot.”

Days of shelling have forced many civilians to flee to other neighborhoods or even escape the city altogether. The U.N. said Sunday that 200,000 had left Aleppo.

As the bloodshed mounted, the Arab League chief accused President Bashar Assad’s regime of atrocities.

“The massacres that are happening in Aleppo and other places in Syria amount to war crimes that are punishable under international law,” Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby said in Cairo.

In a new report on the Aleppo carnage released Tuesday night, Amnesty International said, “Scores of demonstrators and bystanders, most of them young men and boys but including several children and older men, have been shot dead and hundreds injured in the city by security forces and the notorious shabiha, the armed militias working alongside government forces. ”

“Some of the victims were bystanders who were not taking part in the demonstrations,” the London-based human rights group said. “Families of demonstrators and bystanders shot dead by security forces have been pressured to sign statements saying that their loved ones were killed by ‘armed terrorist gangs.’”

Panetta: US will use ‘all options,’ including military force, to stop Iran | The Times of Israel.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak says chances are ‘extremely low’ that sanctions will force Iran to give up its quest for nuclear weapons

Israeli Defense minister Ehud Barak, left, and US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta on Wednesday Aug. 1 (photo credit: AP/Gali Tibbon, Pool)

ASHKELON, Israel (AP) — US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Wednesday that Iran must either negotiate acceptable limits on its nuclear program or face the possibility of US military action to stop it from getting the bomb.

Panetta made his remarks outside the city of Ashkelon in southern Israel, with an “Iron Dome” anti-rocket defense system as a backdrop.

The Pentagon chief said repeatedly that “all options,” including military force, are on the table to stop Iran, should sanctions and diplomacy — the preferred means of persuasion — ultimately fail.

He said he still hopes Iran will see that negotiations are the best way out of this crisis.

However, Panetta said, “If they continue and if they proceed with a nuclear weapon, … we have options that we are prepared to implement to ensure that that does not happen.”

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, standing beside Panetta, said he sees an “extremely low” probability that sanctions will ever compel Iran to give up its nuclear activities.

Barak said Israel “has something to lose” by waiting for sanctions and diplomacy to run their course because Iran is continually accumulating enriched uranium as the key ingredient for a nuclear bomb.

Iran says its nuclear work is for civilian energy uses, but suspicions that the Islamic republic will use enriched uranium for nuclear weapons have resulted in international sanctions and saber-rattling from Israel, which perceives a nuclear Iran as an existential threat. The United States has discouraged Israel from a unilateral, pre-emptive military strike on Iran, but has said it would keep all options available.

The Panetta visit with his Israeli counterpart comes just days after US Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney met with top Israeli officials about Iran and other issues. Romney has accused the Obama administration of being too soft on Iran and not providing sufficient support to Israel.

In greeting Panetta Wednesday at Israeli defense headquarters, Barak said, “The defense ties between Israel and the United States are stronger and tighter than they have ever been and the credit now has to go, most of it, to you, Leon.”

Panetta responded: “We are a friend, we are a partner, we have, as the defense minister has pointed out, probably the strongest US-Israel defense relationship that we have had in history. What we are doing, working together, is an indication not only of our friendship but of our alliance to work together to try to preserve peace in the future.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was scheduled to meet later Wednesday with Panetta, told Israeli Channel 2 TV on Tuesday that despite reservations about an Iranian attack among former Israeli security officials and Israel’s current army chief, the country’s political leadership would make the final decision on any attack.

“I see an ayatollah regime that declares what it has championed: to destroy us,” Netanyahu said. “It’s working to destroy us, it’s preparing nuclear weapons to destroy us. … If it is up to me, I won’t let that happen.”

With “matters that have to do with our destiny, with our very existence, we do not put our faith in the hands of others, even our best of friends,” Netanyahu said, hinting that Israel might act alone despite American misgivings.

Netanyahu said both Romney and Obama have said “Israel has the right to defend itself.”

The trip to Ashkelon on Wednesday gave Panetta a chance to inspect and get briefed on an Israeli air defense system known as Iron Dome. It is designed to shoot down short-range rockets and artillery shells such as those that have been fired into the Jewish state in recent years from Islamic militants linked to Iran and based in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.

Obama last week announced he was releasing an additional $70 million in military aid for Israel, a previously announced move that appeared timed to upstage Romney’s trip to Israel. The stepped-up US aid, first announced in May, will go to help Israel expand production of the Iron Dome system.

The Panetta visit to Israel comes at a critical time, with the US considering more direct involvement in Syria’s civil war and weighing its course on Iran.

Panetta acknowledged Monday that international sanctions have not pressured Tehran to give up its nuclear ambitions. But the Obama administration thinks tougher sanctions eventually will compel Iran to submit and it doesn’t want Israel to attack prematurely.

Panetta, in Israel, warns that US will use military force to stop Iran nuclear bomb – The Washington Post.

By Associated Press, Updated: Wednesday, August 1, 1:28 PM

ASHKELON, Israel — U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said Wednesday that Iran must either negotiate acceptable limits on its nuclear program or face the possibility of U.S. military action to stop it from getting the bomb.

Panetta made his remarks outside the city of Ashkelon in southern Israel, with an “Iron Dome” anti-rocket defense system as a backdrop.

The Pentagon chief said repeatedly that “all options,” including military force, are on the table to stop Iran, should sanctions and diplomacy — the preferred means of persuasion — ultimately fail.

He said he still hopes Iran will see that negotiations are the best way out of this crisis.

However, Panetta said, “If they continue and if they proceed with a nuclear weapon, … we have options that we are prepared to implement to ensure that that does not happen.”

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, standing beside Panetta, said he sees an “extremely low” probability that sanctions will ever compel Iran to give up its nuclear activities.

Barak said Israel “has something to lose” by waiting for sanctions and diplomacy to run their course because Iran is continually accumulating enriched uranium as the key ingredient for a nuclear bomb.

Iran says its nuclear work is for civilian energy uses, but suspicions that the Islamic republic will use enriched uranium for nuclear weapons have resulted in international sanctions and saber-rattling from Israel, which perceives a nuclear Iran as an existential threat. The United States has discouraged Israel from a unilateral, pre-emptive military strike on Iran, but has said it would keep all options available.

The Panetta visit with his Israeli counterpart comes just days after U.S. Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney met with top Israeli officials about Iran and other issues. Romney has accused the Obama administration of being too soft on Iran and not providing sufficient support to Israel.

In greeting Panetta Wednesday at Israeli defense headquarters, Barak said, “The defense ties between Israel and the United States are stronger and tighter than they have ever been and the credit now has to go, most of it, to you, Leon.”

Panetta responded: “We are a friend, we are a partner, we have, as the defense minister has pointed out, probably the strongest U.S.-Israel defense relationship that we have had in history. What we are doing, working together, is an indication not only of our friendship but of our alliance to work together to try to preserve peace in the future.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was scheduled to meet later Wednesday with Panetta, told Israeli Channel 2 TV on Tuesday that despite reservations about an Iranian attack among former Israeli security officials and Israel’s current army chief, the country’s political leadership would make the final decision on any attack.

“I see an ayatollah regime that declares what it has championed: to destroy us,” Netanyahu said. “It’s working to destroy us, it’s preparing nuclear weapons to destroy us. … If it is up to me, I won’t let that happen.”

With “matters that have to do with our destiny, with our very existence, we do not put our faith in the hands of others, even our best of friends,” Netanyahu said, hinting that Israel might act alone despite American misgivings.

Netanyahu said both Romney and Obama have said “Israel has the right to defend itself.”

The trip to Ashkelon on Wednesday gave Panetta a chance to inspect and get briefed on an Israeli air defense system known as Iron Dome. It is designed to shoot down short-range rockets and artillery shells such as those that have been fired into the Jewish state in recent years from Islamic militants linked to Iran and based in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.

Obama last week announced he was releasing an additional $70 million in military aid for Israel, a previously announced move that appeared timed to upstage Romney’s trip to Israel. The stepped-up U.S. aid, first announced in May, will go to help Israel expand production of the Iron Dome system.

The Panetta visit to Israel comes at a critical time, with the U.S. considering more direct involvement in Syria’s civil war and weighing its course on Iran.

Panetta acknowledged Monday that international sanctions have not pressured Tehran to give up its nuclear ambitions. But the Obama administration thinks tougher sanctions eventually will compel Iran to submit and it doesn’t want Israel to attack prematurely.

IRAN PREPARING MAHDI’S SPECIAL FORCES | A Time to Betray.

IRAN PREPARING MAHDI’S SPECIAL FORCES

Army of operatives planning for terror, destruction of the West

WND

07/30/2012

by REZA KAHLILI

The Quds Forces, a special Iranian unit of thousands of operatives tasked with exporting Iran’s Islamic revolution, are being told to step up preparations for terrorism for the coming of the last Islamic messiah and the destruction of the West.

Ali Saeedi, the Iranian supreme leader’s representative to the Revolutionary Guards, emphasized during a Friday sermon in Tehran that the Islamic republic must directly confront America so that the necessary environment is created for the reappearance of Mahdi, the Shiite’s 12th imam, who will kill all infidels and raise the flag of Islam in all corners of the world.

“In three points of history, God directly confronts the will of unruly humans in which, of course, the Right will overcome the False,” Saeedi said, according to the Sepah News, the Guards’ official publication. “The first point in history was during the era of pharaoh, the second era was Bani Abbas, and the third is our current era in which it seems that God has willed us to enlighten the world with the coming of Imam Mahdi.”

Saeedi, “Many of the signs [necessary] for the coming have taken place during the previous years; however, the main sign will take place right before the coming.”

There are five levels of readiness that have to be prepared for the coming, he said: “Individual readiness, the readiness for creating the environment, systematic readiness, the readiness in the region and the international readiness. This means Occupy Wall Street must take place, the Americans must lose hope with the Democratic Party and others, and lose faith in the U.N., while at the same time the unraveling in the Middle East, which was not ripe before, must have taken place before the coming.”

This is the first time a high-ranking Iranian official has stated on the record that the Quds Forces are not only involved in the region, but also internationally for a final confrontation with the West.

“The Revolutionary Guards are one vehicle for preparation for the coming, and in the current Islamic Awakening [the Arab Spring] in the region and on international arena, the Quds Forces play a major role in preparing the readiness of the human force needed for such an event,” Saeedi said. “The chief commander of the Guards and the supreme leader’s representative are tasked for preparing the individual readiness, regional readiness as well as international readiness for the coming.”

In another Guards’ weekly publication, Sobhe Sadegh, a front-page analysis explains that the opening of Iran’s geopolitics and the empowerment of its Islamic power are a reality in which Iran’s influence has expanded not only in the region, but also in Africa, Latin America, Eastern Asia and even in Europe and America.

As was the fall of socialism and the Eastern bloc, the analysis promises, so will be the fall of the capitalism and liberal democracy.

The analysis refers to the statements of the founder of the Islamic revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini:

• “I say with all certainty that the 21st century will be the century of Islam.”
• “I say with all certainty that Islam will conquer all key entrenchments of the world.”
• “I say with all certainty that Islam will defeat all world powers.”
• “I say with all certainty that the 21st century is the century where the oppressed will be victorious over the oppressors.”

While the Quds Forces have recently expanded their operations in shipment of explosives to Latin America, Africa and other places in the world, and at the same time have put terror cells on high alert for terrorist acts, the Islamic regime in Iran has expanded its nuclear program in which over 11,000 centrifuges are now running at two facilities, increasing its enriched uranium stock.

As of the last report in May by the IAEA, Iran had enough enriched uranium for six nuclear bombs, and despite all negotiations and recent sanctions, the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, announced days ago that there will be no turning back from the nuclear path.

Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for a former CIA operative in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and the author of the award-winning book, A Time to Betray. He is a senior Fellow with EMPact America, a member of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and teaches at the U.S. Department of Defense’s Joint Counterintelligence Training Academy (JCITA).

Israel Hayom | Waiting won’t work forever.

Panetta and Barak reaffirm strong security tie… JPost – Defense.

Khamenei Warns Iran’s Top Leaders: WAR IN WEEKS.

DEBKAfile DEBKA Video August 1, 2012, 8:54 AM (GMT+02:00)

IsraCast: Israel, Turkey and Syria’s Chemical Weapons.

IDF Chief Of Staff Gantz: ‘Bashar Assad Is Capable Of Using Chemical Weapons Against His Own People’

U.S. Ambassador Dan Shapiro: ‘U.S. & Israel Are Coordinated On How To Deal With Syria’s Chemical Weapons After Fall Of Assad Regime’

IsraCast Assessment: Turkey Must Also Be Worried About Kurdish PKK Fighters Getting Hands On Syria’s Chemical Weapons. Speaking Privately Senior Israeli Officials Have T old IsraCast : ‘THE DETERIORATING SITUATION STRESSES THE NEED FOR ISRAEL & TURKEY TO RESOLVE PRESENT DIFFERENCES AND RENEW PAST FRIENDSHIP’

Assad can use chemical weapons …

Is it possible the Assad regime may use chemical weapons against its own people? IDF Chief of Staff Gen. Benny Gantz has said: ‘Yes’ there is such a possibility’. Less than twenty-four hours earlier, the Syrian Foreign Ministry spokesman had declared : ‘Syria will never use chemical weapons against the Syrian people, only against foreign aggressors.’ To the best of the IDF commander’s knowledge, Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal is still under Assad’s control. In fact, the Syrian army has reinforced its guard around the chemical weapons to prevent them being seized by the rebel forces. But while Gen. Gantz was certain the chemical weapons had not fallen into ‘negative hands, this did not mean it could not happen’. The IDF was also monitoring to detect if Syria might transfer chemical weapons components to Hezbollah. On this score, both Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Barak have warned that Israel would likely intervene in such circumstances.

Israel & US Coordination…

President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)

There is good reason why Israel is very concerned about the patently barbaric regime losing control of its chemical weapons. President Assad is aware that any attempt to launch a chemical attack on Israel would spark a swift and massive Israel retaliation that would spell the end of his regime. However if the regime falls, as is expected, who will take control of the chemical weapons arsenal. Not only Hezbollah and Iranian fighters are participating in the civil war, IDF intelligence has disclosed that al Qaeda and Islamic Jihad forces are fighting on the side of the rebels. There is no united leadership of ‘Syria’s Free Army’ that is comprised of various groups that do not have the same goals or ideology. Therefore it is very difficult, if not impossible, to foresee what will transpire immediately after the Assad regime is toppled. Syria might break-up into a second ‘Iraq’ with Alewite, Shiite, Sunni, Druze etc. cantons, but what will happen to the chemical weapons in this pandemonium? In his recent interview with Fox News, Netanyahu warned: ‘Chemical weapons in Hezbollah’s hands would be like chemical weapons in Al Qaeda’s hands!’ In other words, not only Israel but also the U.S. would face a grave chemical weapons threat. When Netanyahu was asked if Israel would act to seize the chemical weapons, he was noncommital saying: ‘There are other options’. Could that mean U.S. involvement?

In an interview with IBA TV Dan Shapiro, America’s Ambassador to Israel, disclosed that America and Israel are coordinated on what to do about Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal in the event of Assad’s departure. Naturally Shapiro did not reveal any details. But this of course leads to different possibilities. (As for the Syrian opposition reports that Assad has transported chemical weapons to airports and border areas for possible shipping to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israeli experts view as rebel spin to whip up more international pressure on Assad).

Turkey & Israel Rapprochment?

Turkey, Syria’s northern neighbor, which is playing a commendable role in caring for Syrian refugees, must also be concerned about those chemical weapons. What if they were to fall into the hands of the Kurdish PKK organization that is embroiled in a low intensity war with Turkey? Some Israeli officials have said privately: ‘The deteriorating situation in Syria stresses the need for the region’s two democracies to resolve their present differences and renew their past friendship. This is not only in the vital interest of both Ankara and Jerusalem but this rapprochment would also enhance regional stability’.

And another private note – in a recent interview with a Turkish TV network I asked the question: ‘How is Turkey not deeply concerned that a radical state like Iran, Assad’s main ally in brutally suppressing his own people, may acquire nuclear weapons?’

Syrian Fighting Near Golan Heights…

Meanwhile, the fighting between Assad’s army and the rebel forces is moving closer to the Israeli border on the Golan Heights. IDF troops on the other side can actually watch the ongoing battle. In fact, three mortar bombs landed some four-hundred yards from Israel’s border fence. But the Israelis were not the target – the IDF believes Syrian troops were shooting at the opposition forces and not into Israeli territory.

What was clear is that Bashar Assad is losing control of the country primarily in eastern Syria. The cracks have also been widening in the Syrian army; so far an estimated 17,000 soldiers including some senior officers have deserted. The dispatch of Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon to bolster the Syrian regime had also caused greater tensions in Lebanon itself.

Good Egyptian Army Liason…

Overall, the majority of IDF alerts have been coming from Egyptian controlled Sinai which Gen. Gantz described as ‘an island of instability’, now that the Moslem Brotherhood was on the ascendant in Cairo. Last week, terrorists from inside Sinai opened fire at an Israeli bus travelling on the border road without causing casualties. The terrorists, be they Palestinians or Bedouin tribesmen who make a living by smuggling from Egypt into Israel, were trying to sabotage the security fence that Israel is rapidly constructing along the border. On the other hand, military liason was being maintained with the Egyptian Army from the top brass down to the soldiers in the border area.

As for the Gaza sector, the situation was relatively quiet, but probably not for too long. Gen. Gantz had no doubt that fresh terror activity would again be mounted from Gaza and ‘ the moment will come when we’ll have to act.’

(Shortly after the general’s briefing, Palestinians in Gaza fired two GRAD rockets at the Israeli city of Ashkelon. One was intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system while the other was allowed to explode harmlessly in an open area.)

While the bloody power struggle rages in Syria, Gen. Gantz presented his regional outlook. He said the probability of an initiated, conventional war was actually lowered. But then he cautioned: ‘There are currently events and instability in the region that could spark uncontrolled developments that no one wants or wishes to initiate’. Had Gen. Gantz intended to say an Israeli raid on Syria’s chemical weapons could spark a regional war? An authoritative source at the briefing later said that the Chief of Staff issued no such warning.

Burgas retaliation on the way…

Burgas bus bombing… Israeli security forces had foiled more than ten terror attacks but Hezbollah, with Iran’s backing, had succeeded in the Bulgarian bus bombing that murdered five Israeli tourists and one Bulgarian. Israel would take a hard and cool look at what had happened at Burgas airport and find the right way to react. And the Chief of Staff concluded: ‘At the end of the day, our reaction will arrive!’

Iran? To the best of my knowledge, either Iran was not on the Chief of Staff’s agenda or no details were disclosed. Clearly, Gen. Gantz now faced with a chemical weapons threat from Syria and an Iranian break-out for nuclear weapons, is probably the busiest military commanders in the world.

The Chances of War With Iran Rise to 38% – Dominic Tierney – The Atlantic.

Jul 31 2012, 9:52 PM ET 1

Our expert panel gauges the odds that the United States or Israel will strike the Islamic Republic in the next year.

The chances of conflict with Iran have increased to 38 percent, according to the The Atlantic‘s Iran War Dial.

We’ve assembled a high profile team of experts from the policy world, academia, and journalism to periodically predict the odds of hostilities, including: Daniel Byman, Shahram Chubin, Golnaz Esfandiari, Azar Gat, Jeffrey Goldberg, Amos Harel, Ephraim Kam, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Matthew Kroenig, John Limbert, Valerie Lincy, James Lindsay, Marc Lynch, Gary Milhollin, Trita Parsi, Paul Pillar, Karim Sadjadpour, Kenneth Timmerman, Shibley Telhami, Stephen Walt, and Robin Wright. For more on the Iran War Dial and the panelists, visit our FAQ page.

In July, the panel’s average estimate of the chances of an Israeli or U.S. strike on Iran in the next year was 38 percent. This is a 2-point increase on June’s figure of 36 percent and snaps a 3-month streak where the chances of conflict steadily declined.

July saw the introduction of a new round of sanctions on Iran, including an EU oil embargo, which Iranian officials described as “warfare.”

In a meeting with Mitt Romney, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pushed for a tough stance. “All the sanctions and diplomacy so far have not set back the Iranian program by one iota. We need a strong and credible military threat coupled with sanctions.”

One of Romney’s top foreign policy aides promised that a Romney White House would “respect” Israel’s decision to strike Iran. This deliberate loosening of the reins could make the threat of an Israeli attack more credible. But it could also diminish Washington’s capacity to restrain Israel.

Meanwhile, negotiations with Iran appear to have stalled. Each side’s diplomatic B Team, or the deputy negotiators, met in Istanbul last week. But there was little sign of progress, and the A Teams are still waiting in the wings.

One of our panelists, Valerie Lincy, offers a comment this month about the dynamics of war.

Progress (or not) on several fronts affect the chances of war: diplomacy, sanctions, inspections, and the success with which the targets of military action can be damaged.  If no additional sanctions are adopted in the coming months, and if Iran continues to obstruct the work of international nuclear inspectors, and to stonewall in multilateral negotiations, then the likelihood of war will increase.  There will a strong sense that these options have been exhausted after a decade of application, and that the remaining options are containment, or an attempt at prevention through military strikes.

Iran’s nuclear progress is another variable.  For instance, Iran could begin enriching uranium above the 20 percent level, justifying the action with a (nonexistent) need to produce fuel for future nuclear-powered submarines.  An Iranian naval official floated this idea last month, and it has been repeated by several high-level Iranian officials since then, and taken up by Iran’s parliament.  Iran could also increase the rate of production of 20 percent material at Fordow, which could put a dangerous enrichment capability beyond the reach of Israel’s bombs.  Such progress could happen before the end of the year.  A bombing campaign in response to these developments might be seen as an acceptable option because of the significance of what would be destroyed.  The attacker would accept that not all parts of Iran’s nuclear program would be eliminated, but decide that the value of what would be eliminated justified the costs of an attack.

Peace is more likely than war, but as we enter election season, the temperature has risen.