WarSclerotic

Morsi to shop for nuclear-capable missiles in Beijing en route for Tehran. Netanyahu, Obama meet Sept. 27.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 25, 2012, 12:43 PM (GMT+02:00)

Chinese Dong-Feng 21 nuclear capable missiles

The White House has fixed an appointment for President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to hold talks on Sept. 27, debkafile’s Washington sources report. Netanyahu will spend ten days in the United States, during which he will address the UN General Assembly and launch Israel’s counter-attack on the virulently anti-Semitic themes of Iran’s official anti-Israel propaganda.
This timeline indicates that the prime minister is inclined to accommodate President Obama by delaying once again an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program until after the US presidential election on Nov. 6.
It stands to reason that Netanyahu would not fix a date with Obama to take place after an attack, or that the president would receive him. That being the case, there will not be much for them to talk about.
Obama stood up to the blasts from a number of influential American editorial writers and strategic analysts who urged him to offer Israel a solemn commitment for a pre-emptive American offensive against Iran from the Knesset podium, as a means of holding the Netanyahu government back from military action in the fall of 2012. Another suggestion was for the president to formally notify the US congress of his plans for military action if Iran persisted in speeding the development of ifs nuclear weapon capacity.
Obama rejected both suggestions – and Iran continued to accelerate its advance towards a nuclear weapon undisturbed.
Thursday, diplomats close to the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, disclosed that Iran had installed another 1,000 uranium enrichment machines in its fortified underground facility at Fordo, and was expanding its production of 20-percent refined uranium.
Experts not bound by the IAEA’s diplomatic constraints report that enrichment climbed to 30 percent some months ago and was now on the way to 60 percent. At least 3,000 centrifuges were now spinning at Fordo.

Israel recently passed information to Washington that Iran had already developed a radioactive (dirty) bomb.
Yet US official spokesmen keep on intoning that there is still room for diplomacy – even after all the parties admitted that the Six Power talks with Tehran broke down irretrievably weeks ago. And Friday, Aug. 24, seven hours of argument between the IAEA and Iranian representatives failed to dent Iran’s implacable opposition to any reduction in its nuclear drive or the slightest transparency.
One can only conclude that, even after Iran has the bomb, the mantra “there is still room for diplomacy” will continue to issue from official US mouths and the Washington-Tehran dialogue drag on, possibly through new channels, as it does with Pyongyang.
After they meet, the US President may reward the Israeli Prime Minister with a marginally more assertive statement about Iran as a sort of consolation prize for his restraint. But that will not change the fact that neither has raised a finger to halt a nuclear Iran, both preferring to bow to domestic political pressures and considerations.

Their inaction has given two Middle East leaders a major boost for progress on their own nuclear initiatives.
Last March, Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan, who was recently appointed head of general intelligence, travelled secretly to Beijing and returned with Chinese President Hu Jintao’s consent to sell Saudi Arabia nuclear-capable CSS-5 Dong-Feng 21 MRBM ballistic missiles. He also agreed to send over Chinese nuclear engineers and technicians to help Saudi Arabia develop uranium enrichment and other nuclear production capacities.
This work is already in progress at the King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology near Riyadh.
In the last few weeks, Saudi Crown Prince Salman launched negotiations with Tehran on a non-aggression pact and other understandings covering bilateral cooperation behind America’s back on such issues as Syria.
It should be obvious from this development alone that the Middle East nuclear race, which both President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu admitted would be triggered by a nuclear Iran, unless preempted, is in full flight, a fact of which they have neglected to inform the general public in both countries.
But there is more.
After less than three months in office, the Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi is following in Saudi footsteps: He will kick off his first foreign trips next month with a visit to Beijing, where he hopes to take a leaf out of the Saudi nuclear book. He then touches down in Tehran, ostensibly to attend the Non-Aligned Organization’s summit opening there on Sept. 26, but meanwhile to cultivate ties with Tehran for common action in the Middle East.
He has laid the ground for this by proposing the creation of a new “contact group” composed of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey to disentangle the Syrian conflict – again behind America’s back.
The optimistic presumption that the Egyptian president will have to dance to Washington’s tune to win economic assistance is proving unfounded.
And Obama’s hands are tied.

In June 2009, he bound his administration’s Middle East policy to mending American ties with the Muslim Brotherhood. Today, he can hardly starve the new Cairo administration of financial aid.
And the Egyptian president is riding high. Believing he can get away with it, he may even proclaim from Tehran that the two nations have decided to resume diplomatic relations after they were cut off for 31 years.
This chain of events confronts Israel with three strategic predicaments:

1.  Even if Riyadh, Cairo and Tehran are unable to come to terms in their first efforts at understanding, the fact remains that Saudi Arabia and Egypt have set their faces toward détente with Iran.
2.  Saudi Arabia and Egypt are on the road to a nuclear weapon although Egypt is still trailing far behind.
3.  In the five weeks remaining before the Obama-Netanyahu meeting, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and China will be moving forward vigorously toward their strategic, military and nuclear goals, while the US and Israel will be stuck in the doldrums of their interminable argument over who goes first against Iran – if at all.

Iran: We all have a responsibili… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

Photo: REUTERS/Raheb Homavandi

Iran has a responsibility to support the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad as it fights an armed uprising, the head of the intelligence unit of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was quoted as saying on Saturday.

An Iranian lawmaker said a legislative committee would visit Syria to strengthen bilateral relations and consult Syrian officials, the state news agency IRNA reported.

“We all have a responsibility to support Syria and not allow the line of resistance to be broken,” Fars news agency, which claims to be independent but which is widely known to have close ties to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, quoted Hossein Taeb, the intelligence unit head, as saying.

Iran has supported Assad in the face of international condemnation over his crackdown on the uprising against his family’s four-decade rule, considering his government part of an anti-Western front that also includes Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

Tehran has also accused Western powers and countries in the region, including Turkey and Qatar, of supporting the rebels in an effort to overthrow Assad.

A parliamentary committee from Iran will visit Syria for two days soon to strengthen bilateral relations and consult the speaker of parliament and other officials, IRNA quoted Alaeddin Boroujerdi, chairman of the Iranian parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee, as saying.

Boroujerdi said the Non-Aligned Movement summit, bringing together 120 developing nations and starting on Sunday in Tehran, offered a good chance to discuss the Syrian crisis.

“This summit is a very good opportunity for member states of this movement to take a decision on the issue in this country…so that the crisis would be solved soon.”

U.S. Says Peaceful Solution to Iran Nuclear Bid Still Viable – NYTimes.com.

By DAVID E. SANGER

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration insisted Friday that “there is time and space” for a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis, despite new evidence, to be released next week by international nuclear inspectors, that Iran is bolstering its ability to produce a type of uranium that can be converted relatively quickly to bomb fuel.

In a statement that was notable chiefly for the fact that it was issued before the International Atomic Energy Agency’s report is scheduled to be made public, a White House spokesman, Tommy Vietor, said Iran “is continuing to violate its international obligations” despite the imposition of sanctions that severely restrict the country’s oil revenue.

The energy agency’s inspectors found that Iran had installed hundreds of new centrifuges in the deep underground site called Fordow in recent months, but Mr. Vietor said that did not change the White House assessment that diplomatic solutions to the Iranian nuclear issue were still viable.

The White House statement appeared intended to pre-empt statements from Israeli officials, who are citing the forthcoming inspectors’ report to bolster their argument that the negotiations with Iran have simply allowed Tehran to speed ahead with its construction program, and that sanctions have been ineffective.

The office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reported Friday that during a meeting with Representative Mike Rogers, a Michigan Republican who heads the intelligence committee, Mr. Netanyahu said, “Just yesterday, we received additional proof of the fact that Iran is continuing to make accelerated progress toward achieving nuclear weapons while totally ignoring international demands.” He appeared to be referring to news accounts about the inspectors’ report.

Iran’s top negotiator was in Vienna at the International Atomic Energy Agency’s headquarters in an effort to work out an agreement for Iran to allow inspectors to visit a site, called Parchin, where inspectors believe weapons work may have been conducted. But the effort failed, along with parallel efforts to get Iran to answer a series of questions about suspected weapons-related experiments that the country has refused to discuss for several years.

An administration official, who declined to speak for attribution about intelligence matters, confirmed that in the American assessment, “the numbers of centrifuges being installed and operating” at the Fordow plant, which he characterized as “a few hundred,” would “add to Iran’s ability to produce more 20 percent low-enriched uranium.” That purity can be converted relatively rapidly to bomb-grade fuel, a process called “breakout.” But, the official added, “Any breakout would not be a quiet affair: the I.A.E.A. is in the facility regularly and they would detect a move” to build a weapon. He concluded that while the work at Fordow was a violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions, “it is also not a game-changer.”

Iran insists that the 20 percent enrichment is for a reactor that produces medical isotopes. But it has already produced far more of the 20 percent uranium than is needed to fuel that reactor for many years.

The contrasting responses to a report that is still being written reflect the very different strategies being pursued in the United States and Israel. President Obama is trying to keep the pressure on Iran without letting the confrontation tip into crisis before the presidential election. As a result, the White House emphasizes the steps it is taking to pressure the Iranian leadership — which range from diplomatic isolation to sanctions to sabotage — and avoids discussion of why, despite those steps, Iran’s nuclear program continues on course.

Mr. Netanyahu has a different calculus. He and his defense minister, Ehud Barak, have said that time is running out. They have broadly hinted that a decision on whether Israel will strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities may come soon, in a matter of weeks. The betting in Washington, however, is that those threats are largely an effort to extract commitments from Mr. Obama to act against Iran in the future, perhaps in 2013. An attack joined by the United States, Israeli officials have said, would be far more effective than one Israel conducts alone. But so far, there has been no such assurance from the White House.

Report: Iran advancing Syria power transition – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Kuweiti paper says Islamic Republic, China and Russia agree on plan that will see Syrian president step down, receive asylum elsewhere; Report claims Assad agrees to parameters

Roi Kais

Senior Arab diplomats said the governments of Iran, Russia, China and other Syrian allies have concluded that there is no solution to the Syrian crisis that will see President Bashar Assad stay in power, Kuwaiti newspaper al-Rai reported on Saturday.

The report quoted the Arab diplomats as saying that the countries are now trying to advance a proposal by which Assadwill leave Syria and receive asylum elsewhere.

According to the sources, during the transition period, Syria will set up a strong army consisting of members of the Free Syrian Army and uniformed personnel who “do no have blood on their hands.” The paper claimed that the plan also received support from the United States and Europe.  

The report, which has not been confirmed by any other source, claims that Assad has agreed to the parameters of the proposal, and told his allies that while he can no longer rule over the country, he does not want to hand it over to terrorists.

Regional alliance?

Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi on Friday said that Iran will present a proposal to end the Syrian crisis during the summit of Non-Aligned countries slated to take place in Tehran at the end of August. According to Salehi, Iran is willing to host talks between the Syrian government and Syrian opposition members after the summit.

However, Lebanese paper al-Akbar, which is affiliated with Hezbollah, quoted Salehi as saying that he staunchly supports the Syrian regime, which he claimed is “a center pillar of Iran’s foreign policy and a central element in the resistance against Israel

Meanwhile, the head of the intelligence unit of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was quoted as saying on Saturday that Iran has a responsibility to support Assad’s government as it fights an armed uprising.

“We all have a responsibility to support Syria and not allow the line of resistance to be broken,” Fars news agency quoted Hossein Taeb, the intelligence unit head, as saying.