Archive for August 17, 2012

‘Iranians planned to assassinate Israeli ambassador’

August 17, 2012

‘Iranians planned to assassinate Israeli ambassador’ – Israel News, Ynetnews.

As Danny Ayalon seeks African nations’ support for Iran stance, Kenya’s intelligence services reveal they prevented plan to assassinate Israel’s Ambassador in Kenya

Itamar Eichner

Published: 08.17.12, 15:04 / Israel News

Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon on Thursday praised the Kenyan goverment for its efforts to stop Iranian terror threats against Israeli and Jewish targets. .

Ayalon who is currently visiting Kenya as part of a round of visits in three African countries – Uganda, Ethiopia and Kenya, praised the local authorities after they arrested the two Iranians in June when the suspects led Kenyan security forces to 15 kilograms (33 pounds) of RDX, a powerful explosive, in the coastal city of Mombasa where several hotels are owned by Israelis.

It has now been revealed that the targets included Israel’s Ambassador to Kenya, Gil Haskel.

One official said the Iranians are members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force, an elite and secretive unit.

During Ayalon’s visit, all three countries expressed concern regarding Iran’s attempts to increase its terror activity in Africa.

Ayalon is also using the visits to conduct a diplomatic battle against Iran, and is trying to convince the African leaders not to take part in the conference of Non Aligned Nations at the end of the month in Teheran.

Avi Granot, deputy director of the African section in the Foreign Ministry, said that the Israeli request to send a delegation of lower ranking representatives was being mulled.

A week before Ayalon arrived in Africa Iranian Vice President Hamid Bakai visited the continent for a round of visits and handed each leader a personal invitation to the conference.

Security and Defense: Delaying Iran’s nuke program

August 17, 2012

Security and Defense: Delayi… JPost – Features – Week in review.

08/16/2012 21:51
The disagreement between the US and Israel on striking Iran seems to be about trust and timing.

uranium-processing site in Isfahan

Photo: Reuters

There are those who call it a “strike,” while others refer to it as an “operation.” What exactly it will entail no one really knows, although most assessments stress that there will be surprises – and lots of them.

Either way, when Israel decides to launch an attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities it will be looking to inflict as much damage as possible with the aim of preventing Tehran from rebuilding its nuclear program for years to come.

The question is, how far can Israel set back Teheran’s nuclear program? While the media have played up reported disagreement between the IDF and the government over the effectiveness of a strike, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey made made his position clear on Tuesday when telling reporters that Israel cannot “destroy” Iran’s nuclear program but can, at best, “delay” it.

The disagreement between Israel and the US seems to be about trust and timing and, more specifically, about whether Israel should attack Iran now or wait and give US President Barack Obama time to do the job on his own.

While both Israel and the US agree that Iran is not yet building a nuclear weapon, Jerusalem argues that if it waits too long it might miss the point when assembly begins and will no longer be able to attack. The US dismisses the argument and believes that it has a strong handle on what is happening in Iran and that missing the point is not an option. Unfortunately, due to North Korea, history is not on America’s side.

The conclusion that a strike can be effective is based on the answer to four key questions: Does Israel knows the location of all of Iran’s nuclear facilities? Can Israel reach all of them with either air force jets or surface-to-surface missiles? Can Israel overcome Iranian air defense systems? And can Israel penetrate some of the hardened/underground facilities?

The potential targets might vary, but the main targets appear to be Natanz and Fordo, the two uranium enrichment facilities – both buried underground.

In addition, Israel would likely want to destroy Parchin, a military base near Tehran where Israel and the US claim Iran has been working to develop a nuclear warhead, as well as Esfahan, the main uranium conversion plant that feeds Natanz. Another target would likely be Arak – a heavy water facility that could one day refine plutonium (although it is still a couple years away from becoming operational).

Iran has additional facilities that are less known, where, for example, the weapons group – a team of scientists tasked with assembling a warhead – work. These could also be targets even though some of them are located in population centers.

But these are only the facilities affiliated with the nuclear program.

Military planners would also likely want to try to destroy Iran’s long-range missiles and associated launchers to prevent, or at least minimize, the regime’s ability to retaliate. The same would apply to the Iranian air force and a strike against Iran’s oil plants may also be considered as a means of preventing the regime from financing the rehabilitation of its program.

Getting to Iran, though, will not be simple. When former IDF chief of staff Lt.-Gen. (res.) Dan Halutz was once asked how far Israel would go to stop Iran, he responded: “Two thousand kilometers”, roughly the distance it would take to reach Iran’s nuclear facilities.

IAF fighter jets could take three possible realistic routes from Israel to Iran: The first route – to the north – skirts along the Turkish- Syrian border into Iran. This route entails several risks and needs to take into account Syrian air defenses and Turkish opposition to violating its airspace.

Unlike in 2007, when Israel flew through Turkish airspace to bomb Syria’s nuclear reactor, Jerusalem and Ankara no longer have close ties that would enable the toleration of such a violation once again. On the other hand, it would be hard to see Turkey – a member of NATO – intercepting Israeli aircraft even if they flew over unannounced.

In addition, the threat of Syrian air defense systems might not be as serious today, as President Bashar Assad appears to be preoccupied with trying to hold onto his power. In 2007, Israel also reportedly used impressive electronic warfare technology to hack into Syria’s network and blind its radar systems, something it could potentially try to do again.

The central route would take IAF jets directly over Jordan and Iraq. While this is the most direct route, it would require overcoming serious diplomatic obstacles and potentially undermine Israel’s peace with Jordan, which could then face the brunt of an Iranian reprisal.

The last route would be from the south, and would take the aircraft over Saudi Arabia and into Iran. While this path is significantly longer than the one over Jordan and Iraq, Israel, according to a number of media reports, has discussed this possibility – including landing in the Saudi desert to refuel – with the Saudi kingdom. One report claimed a number of years ago that Saudi Arabia had even conducted tests on its air defense systems to ensure that they would not engage IAF fighter jets in case such a strike takes place.

A recent report in one Israeli newspaper, claiming that the Saudis have threatened to shoot down IAF aircraft, could be looked at in two ways. If it is genuine, then, despite the Saudis’ obvious strife with Iran, they will try to intercept IAF aircraft.

Alternatively, the report might be an intentional leak aimed at setting up the Saudis’ excuse for the day after Israel flies over their country. This way they will be able to say to the Iranians, “We tried to stop them and even threatened, but we didn’t succeed.”

Unlike the US Air Force, the IAF does not have specially designated bombers or interceptors; instead, each of its F-15s and F-16s are expected to fill both roles as needed.

For that reason, an Israeli strike package would likely include a significant portion of the IAF’s combat fleet, led by the advanced F-15I and F-16I and complimented by an assortment of F-16 C/Ds and F-15A/B.

The IAF has spent recent years qualifying its older combat aircraft – the A/B and C/D models – for long-range missions like those to Iran as well as with carrying specialized standoff munitions, like Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs).

In addition to the combat aircraft, the IAF would also likely use its small but advanced fleet of Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS), based on Gulfstream G550 business jets. The aircraft can create an aerial image without relying on land-based radar systems and would help the IAF detect enemy aircraft as well as missile fire.

Hercules C-130 transport aircraft might also play a role in ferrying special forces – if needed to infiltrate and destroy some of the underground facilities and conduct poststrike assessments – as well as in deploying search-and-rescue teams nearby to be able to rescue pilots shot down over Iran.

The IDF has been working over the years to establish airborne hospitals inside a Hercules. One of those might come in handy, depending on estimates regarding wounded and casualties.

But now the question is whether Israel can penetrate the Iranian facilities. In recent years, the IAF has bolstered its arsenal of bunker-busters, some even supplied by the Obama administration. The GBU-27 and GBU-28 bunker buster bombs can carry anywhere from 1,000 to 3,000 pounds of explosives and are believed to be capable of penetrating the main uranium enrichment hall at Natanz.

But even if the bombs on their own cannot penetrate the facilities, former IAF commander Maj.-Gen. (res.) Eitan Ben-Eliyahu explained in an interview a number of years ago that pilots could “guide other bombs directly to the hole created by the previous ones and eventually destroy any target” In addition, and in contrast to the 1981 bombing of the Osirak reactor in Iraq, nowadays pilots do not need to fly directly over their targets before dropping their bombs and can instead use standoff weapons like JDAMs, which are guided by GPS, or other laser-guided munitions.

Due to the complexity of such an operation though, it might be worth to expect some surprises.

Firstly, Israel could, according to foreign sources, potentially use the Jericho two-stage ballistic missile, whose range is reportedly thousands of kilometers, encompassing all of Iran with a high-degree of accuracy.

Israel does not publicly admit to possessing the missile, but the Shavit – a launcher developed by Israel Aerospace Industries and used to put Israeli satellites in space – is reported to be a copy of the Jericho. According to various reports, the Jericho, also believed to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads, is stored inside an IAF base near Beit Shemesh.

The advantage in attacking Iranian facilities with surface-to-surface missiles is twofold: On the one hand, pilots are not in danger of being shot down, killed or captured.

In addition, there is no immediate proof that Israel is behind the strike since there won’t be any F-15s with Stars of David spotted flying over Iran.

The same thinking can be applied to IAF drones, some of which are reportedly capable of carrying missiles. In both cases though, the penetration capabilities of missiles carried by drones as well as the capabilities of the Jericho are unknown and might be limited, meaning that they might only be effective against targets located above surface.

While most assessments are confident in Israel’s ability to cause the required damage to delay Iran’s nuclear program, most also agree that its success borders on the extent of the IDF’s capabilities and possibly just beyond.

For that reason, when Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu refers to the bombing of Osirak in 1981 – as he has done numerous times in recent weeks – it is not only a reference to the courage he sees in Menachem Begin’s decision to attack but also in the IAF’s ability to do things that appear to be impossible.

In 1981, the IAF F-16s returned from bombing Osirak on the fumes from their empty gas tanks. This time, most officers will be thinking about the day after the strike and the war that is expected to come.

But another question on Israel’s mind will be the price it will pay in the US if it goes ahead with unilateral and uncoordinated military action.

In 1981, after Israel bombed Iraq’s Osirak reactor, the Reagan administration decided to delay the delivery of a batch of F-16 fighter jets to Israel.

How the Obama administration would react to uncoordinated and unilateral Israeli military action against Iran is unclear, although Israel is once again waiting for the delivery of advanced combat aircraft.

This time it is the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, a fifth-generation stealth fighter jet that the IAF looks forward to receiving in the coming years and which will help Israel retain its qualitative military edge in the region.

Delaying aircraft, though, is just one punitive measure that the US can potentially take against Israel in the aftermath of such an attack.

Other steps could include a general downgrade in Israeli-American intelligence cooperation, defense ties and even support for missile defense systems.

Just a few weeks ago, Obama signed a new bill to enhance Israeli-US security ties, which included an additional $70 million toward the Iron Dome counter rocket defense program.

These funds are critical for Israel, especially now, in the face of an economic downturn.

Israel has yet to decide what it will do, but Jerusalem has made one point extremely clear in recent weeks: time is running out.

Backstabbing Democracy: A Nuclear Iran and the Israeli Media

August 17, 2012

Backstabbing Democracy: A Nuclear Iran and the Israeli Media | Jewish & Israel News Algemeiner.com.

( The central thrust of this article is accurate.  I simply don’t think many pay much attention to the lefty press here.  It’s OUR lives at stake here.  Who would you trust?  _ JW )

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

August in Israel is usually full of hot air, and this one is no exception. The country is sweating under the relentless summer sun, and whatever your occupation and the higher calling in your life, if you’re an Israeli with children, your main agenda is quite simple – keep your kids from destroying the universe during this last month of school vacation, after all the camps have ended.

For the local journalists, August is the “cucumber season”, when the real news is slow and the inherent silliness of the Israeli press (caused by the poor level of recruitment and professionalism) runs wild. In recent years, though, instead of reporting on items like “Chechen fighters establish a colony in Southern township”, the summer tea-time of the collective brain of the Israeli press took a decisive turn to the political.

Last year, it was the “popular uprising” of the well-to-do Israelis of the Centrist-Left persuasion that fascinated the media in the way a kitten is fascinated by a ball of yarn. From the moment the first tent appeared on Rothschild boulevard in Tel-Aviv, the Israeli “watchdogs of democracy” abdicated their responsibility to report and to analyze, much less criticize, and became what Vladimir Lenin called a “collective propagandist, agitator and organizer of the masses”. In the following days and weeks, it became painfully obvious that the socio-economic composition of the protesting crowd matched almost completely the audience of two commercial TV channels who competed between themselves for the privilege of being the most radical and most shrill with the most dramatic shots and the most inflated numbers.

Those outside of Israel who took their cue from the local press and became obsessed with “Tahrir in Tel Aviv” could remind themselves that, far from being real bonfires of the Israeli tribe, both channels, 2 and especially 10 are so incapable of setting a unifying agenda for their potential viewers that they constantly bleed money and balance on a brink of financial extinction. When they embraced the protests of 2011, it was not a great alliance but a kiss of death. Large swaths of the public, suspicious of the journalists and their not-really-hidden real motive – to bring down the Netanyahu government – stayed away from the action. Then September came, and the silly season was over.

This year, despite the attempts to revive the protests in a more extreme and violent form, the Israeli press abstained. Maybe it was preoccupied with its own self-inflicted problems – instead of increased prestige and ratings, the only tangible result of the public outcry against Big Business was the sharp decrease of advertising revenue from Big Business, which brought most of the printed media close to insolvency and brought about massive layoffs. Or maybe it was just disappointed – after all, the demonstrations, however successful in reshaping the Israeli political agenda and bringing forward issues that lay dormant – taxes, prices, housing and social services – haven’t managed to unseat the hated government of the Right, so why bother?

The only aspect of the renewed protest that got media attention, in a morbid and wildly irresponsible way, was the suicide of one of the demonstrators who blamed the government for his business failings. In the following days, the media’s insistence in turning him into some kind of a tragic hero and to transform his personal misfortune into a national tragedy (I am quoting actual headlines here), caused a dozen new attempts by copycat wannabe self-immolators, before saner heads and the deep-seated Jewish aversion to suicide prevailed.

I am bringing this up because without understanding the modus operandi of the rancid mess that is the mainstream Israeli media, it is impossible to plumb the depths of insanity to which it sank in the recent weeks of August 2012. Lead by a member of the Board of Trustees of George Soros’ International Crisis Group (which is, of course, firmly opposed to any kind of military action against Iran), “Yedioth Ahronoth” columnist Nahum Barnea, the press is both whipping up hysteria about an “imminent” Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear installations – AND blaming Netanyahu and the Defense Minister Ehud Barak for their “irresponsible blather”! At the same newspaper, on the same page, you can read an editorial demanding “a widest possible discussion” on the merits of the attack and its’ consequences AND the ruminations of the chief editorial columnist about how in the past, “the responsible leaders ordered such attacks first and only then talked about it”.

Day in and day out, Israelis are bombarded by gossip in the guise of reporting. Today we’re being told that the decision has been made, tomorrow – that it will wait until September when Netanyahu might meet with Obama at the UN. Mysterious “sources” report that the security establishment is against the attack – a day later you’ll learn from the same “sources” that the generals – naturally – prefer an American-led operation. The febrile atmosphere caused the usual Left-wing nuts to erupt – while the increasingly unhinged Yoram Kaniuk called on the “true Beitarim” to rise on Netanyahu and “stop” him, the assorted “progressives” started a Web petition calling on the Israeli pilots to refuse an order to bomb Iran. One of those, law school professor Menahem Mautner, cheerfully proclaimed in a radio interview that a huge difference exists between the Left and the Right with regard to the (blatantly illegal) refusal to obey lawful military orders given by an elected government. Turns out, that the Right refuses, because it wishes to turn Israel into a racist theocracy, and therefore it must be crushed, while the Left wants to preserve Israeli democracy and therefore its refusal is legitimate and must be respected.

There’s of course nothing “democratic” in the idea that in a crisis, an opinion of the military bureaucrats and “intelligence professionals” must prevail over this of the civilian leaders elected by a clear majority of the people. This, in fact, is what the Israeli hard Left has been dreaming about all along – since it can no longer persuade the people to follow its suicidal course, it must utilize tools outside of representative democracy to make the will of the people irrelevant. This anti-democratic mood is fully shared by the ideological elder twins of the Israeli “liberals” in America – that’s why the “progressive” Peter Beinart’s Open Zion is willing to entertain the possibility of a military coup “to save Israel from itself”.

It is also worth noting, without getting into the debate about the merits and dangers of a preventive strike against Iran, that the Israeli “security professionals” were wrong in the past, sometimes – disastrously wrong. From the fateful mistakes that led to the appalling loss of life in the Yom Kippur War to the failure to predict and prepare for the fall of secular dictatorships throughout the Middle East, the Israeli generals and spooks erred time and again, sometimes on the side of war, sometimes on the side of peace. In the last two decades they gave their support to policies of withdrawal and appeasement that failed spectacularly – in Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza – and failed to prepare the armed forces for the inevitable reckoning. Hundreds of Israeli civilians lost their lives, thousands were wounded and traumatized, billions of shekels were lost, because the generals made mistakes for which they weren’t held accountable. Up until Syria exploded, the same generals, united under the Leftist umbrella organization with the deceptive name “Counsel for Peace and Security”, promoted the idea of giving up the Golan Heights “for peace”.

Whatever the outcome of the internal Israeli debate on the pros and contras of the attack on Iran, it must not be hijacked by the anti-democratic Leftist elite, sub-par journalists with ulterior motives and the manipulative security establishment. Israel has suffered enough from insufficient civilian control over its military. Instead of proclaiming generals’ infallibility and giving uncritical support to their anonymous insinuations, the responsible press should have called them to order and demanded to lay their opinions where they belong – at the table of the civilian decision-makers – instead of spreading confusion and panic at the civilian rear.

Vilnai: Israel is more ready than ever for war

August 17, 2012

Vilnai: Israel is more ready… JPost – Features – Week in review.

 

 

LAST UPDATED: 08/17/2012 16:25
In interview with ‘The Jerusalem Post’ outgoing home front defense minister says Israel will only go to war with Iran “if the sword was clearly at our throats”; claims home front prepared for possible multi-front attack.

MATAN VILNA’I Photo: Ariel Jerozolimski

Outgoing home front defense minister Matan Vilna’i nearly gave people who care about Israel around the world a heart attack this week, even though he really intended to ease their fears.

Vilna’i gave a parting interview to Ma’ariv’s veteran Knesset correspondent, Arik Bender, headlined “Vilna’i: There is no reason for hysteria, the home front is ready.” Just as he did in other interviews, he downplayed threats and boasted about the work he had done to prepare Israel for any eventuality.

But the Reuters news agency took a quote from Vilna’i out of context and headlined its reports, which were published around the world, “Israeli minister: Possible war with Iran could be month-long affair with 500 dead.”

Coming from the ultimate expert on Israel’s readiness for war, who happens to be moving 7,130 kilometers away next Wednesday to Beijing, it is no wonder such a headline set off alarm bells. But those familiar with Vilna’i know he did not intend to scare anyone.

Vilnai’s deep voice and calm demeanor could act as a sedative for even the most stressed. He is not running away from Israel to China.

He accepted a plum posting as ambassador to Beijing that will cap off 50 years of public service in which he rose through the army’s ranks to deputy chief of staff and then toiled for 13 years in politics.

For the past five years, he has been in charge of the home front, first as deputy defense minister and then as a minister.

And for the record, a month-long war with 500 dead is the worst-case scenario that Israel is preparing for – it’s not something expected. Whether you are a worry-wart or happy-go-lucky, the fact that such preparations are being made is undoubtedly a good thing.

Vilna’i had something to say to both worriers and warmongers in an interview this week with The Jerusalem Post:
Matan Vilna’i, should we be worrying?

Whenever there is a possibility of war, you have to worry. And everyone who lives in Israel needs to know that at any point there can be a war. The right thing to do is to make sure we are doing everything possible to avoid war until there is no choice. That is correct whether the war is on the home front or in enemy territory. We would only go to war if the sword was clearly at our throats.

Are we prepared to endure attacks on multiple fronts?

Over the past three years, Israel has prepared in a way we never have before. There is no reason to enter hysteria. We can feel very good about what we have done. It won’t be like the Second Lebanon War in 2006, when we were not ready.

What did you mean when you talked about 500 dead in a month-long war?

That people who spoke about thousands were exaggerating. The numbers “500” and “one month” are the Defense Ministry’s assessment for the worst-case scenario that we need to prepare for based on the strength of the enemy. I agree with that assessment, so that is what we are getting ready for. But it could be more and it could be less. In the Gulf War, two Israelis were killed from direct hits of Scud missiles from Iraq while 28 marines in Saudi Arabia were killed from one missile. In the Second Lebanon War, 40 citizens were killed by 4,000 missiles. Now there are are 10 times as many missiles in Lebanon. There should not be panic as though there will be thousands of casualties.

Do you think Israel will attack Iran?

I won’t get into predictions. What I did was not necessarily connected to Iran. I had to get the country ready for earthquakes and for every eventuality. We prepare for the worst-case scenario. I don’t deal with scaring people.

What is the greatest challenge you are leaving for your successor, Avi Dichter?

I left him my outlook and my framework for getting the job done. There is work that will never be done. People have forgotten that at the beginning they said there was no need for a ministry. Now no one is saying that. The home front has changed dramatically.

What about reports that one-third of the population has no shelter of any kind?

Building shelters for the entire population is important, but it is a project of dozens of millions of shekels that I don’t think we should invest in. If people listen to our warning systems and get to the most protected place possible, that is what should be done. Educational commercials will start airing soon about choosing the best place to go in an emergency.

Can you understand why the public would think you are escaping a troubled ministry on the eve of a potential conflict?

The press may say we are on the eve of a conflict but I am not so sure. I built a whole system to deal with any scenario. I have been dealing with security for 50 years and now I have a right to go do something else. The prime minister and foreign minister asked me to go to China. I have learned a lot about China over the past few months, I am excited about the opportunity and I intend to do that job well.

Can you persuade China to cooperate with efforts to prevent the nuclearization of Iran through non-military means?

I will do everything I can. I don’t think I can persuade them. They have their considerations. I will do what I can to represent Israel’s interests.

What is your greatest accomplishment and your biggest regret?

I took the home front, an issue that politicians didn’t want to touch for 60 years. There were 20 years of un-implemented decisions, and I took care of it.

Warning for Dichter: Home Front Not Ready

August 17, 2012

Warning for Dichter: Home Front Not Ready – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Former general warns response system lacks coordination, says lessons have not been learned.

By Maayana Miskin

First Publish: 8/17/2012, 11:56 AM

 

Children in bomb shelter (illustrative)

Children in bomb shelter (illustrative)
Flash 90

The Home Front is not prepared to respond to disasters, warns Brigadier-General (res.) Amatzia “Patzi” Chen. Different organizations tasked with first response still do not coordinate their actions, despite previous tragedies such as the Carmel fire disaster, he told Arutz Sheva.

“The lack of coordination between systems brought about all the problems that were revealed during Operation Cast Lead and the Second Lebanon War,” he said.

Avi Dichter’s appointment is really the marking of the first person to be fired by the committee of inquiry that will be set up if the Home Front is attacked,” he warned. “So I suggest that Dichter check to see if all the systems that are supposed to work are working, and to see how to get them ready for a state of war.”

The United States set an example by learning from disasters in Vietnam, he said, and putting a top commander in charge of communications between forces – a move that helped the American army in Iraq. Israel should do the same, he said, “There should be coordination between all government offices and every branch of the IDF.”

Chen called for public discourse over Home Front preparedness. Currently, the topic “isn’t on the agenda,” he lamented.

Instead, he said, there is a public discourse on the possibility of an Israeli strike in Iran. He condemned those who openly called on pilots not to obey strike orders, calling them “an irresponsible gang motivated by personal interests” that is “undermining the foundations of democracy.”

Iran is simply not afraid of the United States, says Israel’s former military intelligence chief

August 17, 2012

Iran is simply not afraid of the United States, says Israel’s former military intelligence chief | The Times of Israel.

Adds Amos Yadlin: As Israel agonizes over whether to let its military option lapse, it needs more indications of US commitment to use force if necessary

August 17, 2012, 12:39 am 6
Amos Yadlin (photo credit: Miriam Alster/Flash90)

Amos Yadlin (photo credit: Miriam Alster/Flash90)

Iran’s behavior shows it does not seriously believe the US will resort to military action against its nuclear program, the former head of Israeli military intelligence, Amos Yadlin, told The Times of Israel.

As for Israel, Yadlin said, it needs to see both firmer US declarations, and actual indications that the US means what it says about a possible resort to force, as it agonizes over whether to let its window for military action against Iran close and place its faith in the US to thwart Iran come what may.

That window for Israeli action “extends into 2013,” Yadlin added. Defense Minister Ehud Barak, by contrast, has said it closes at the end of this year — one of the factors behind the feverish speculation of recent weeks about an Israeli strike in the fall.

In a clear and candid interview Wednesday, Yadlin, who retired as MI chief at the end of 2010, urged President Barack Obama to make a statement to Congress, specifying “that if the steps the administration is relying upon today, like negotiations and sanctions, do not achieve success by the summer of 2013, then the Americans will deal with the problem via military intervention.”

Such a statement, he said, could assuage Israeli concerns over American policy. And in addition to declarations, he said, the US should take certain actions “to show that you’re serious. More intensive missile defense in the Middle East, exercises with your allies in the Middle East — in order to demonstrate to the world more clearly that you’re really training for this and preparing for this.”

As things stands, said Yadlin, who today heads the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, ”The Iranians have just said that they’re not afraid of the Israelis. They didn’t say they’re not afraid of the Americans. But you can see from their behavior that they’re not afraid.”

It was unacceptable, Yadlin added, for a US defense secretary “to stand up publicly and say that an attack on Iran will plunge the world into World War III or the Middle East will go up in flames. That shows that you don’t really mean to do it.”

A former IAF fighter pilot who fought in the 1973 war, and who was one of the eight pilots who bombed Saddam Hussein’s nuclear reactor at Osirak in 1981, Yadlin said he was certain that, if all else failed, a single “smart, surgical” air operation by the US could halt the Iranian nuclear program. And he said there was a “high likelihood” of a US attack in 2013-2014, if “all the other options will be exhausted in the eyes of the Americans.”

“The United States can do it when it finally understands that negotiations will get nothing from the Iranians and that the sanctions are not achieving what is necessary,” Yadlin said. “I am one of those who believes that President Obama understands the American interests regarding Iran, regarding the proliferation that would follow if Iran goes nuclear. The next day the Saudis, the Turks and after that maybe Egypt and Iraq [would seek to go nuclear]. There is no American president who wants the NPT [the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty] to collapse on his watch and for Iran to be the Middle East hegemon because it is nuclear…

He added: “Look, President Obama received the Nobel Peace Prize, but he’s not a vegetarian. Ask bin Laden. What has happened to various al-Qaeda leaders?”

But if Israel’s concerns were not assuaged, and if it saw no alternative, the possibility of Israel attacking Iran “cannot be excluded,” he said. The pre-conditions set by the prime minister and the defense minister that would lead to an attack on Iran have been fulfilled, he noted:

“What they say, more or less, is that all the strategies being employed against Iran have either failed or are not working. The diplomatic negotiations that took place in Istanbul, Baghdad and Moscow produced nothing. The sanctions may be painful for the Iranians, but not to the extent that they change their minds. The secretive operations for which no one takes responsibility have not stopped the Iranian nuclear program. The regime is relatively stable.”

“On the assumption that the cost of an Iranian nuclear bomb to Israel’s security, and the danger it poses, are greater than [the cost of] an attack on Iran, I think it can happen.

Still, Yadlin said, he did not believe Israel’s capacity to intervene militarily would end this year. Asked when Israel would no longer be able to take effective military action, he answered, “It was presented by the defense minister as the two final quarters of 2012. There are people who think differently — who think that for us, too, it extends into 2013. I’m one of those people.”

Syria opposition fighters acquire Stinger missiles: sources

August 17, 2012

Syria opposition fighters acquire Stinger missiles: sources.

The U.S. fears that advanced weapons sent to Syrian rebels might reach hands of Jihadi groups. (Reuters)

The U.S. fears that advanced weapons sent to Syrian rebels might reach hands of Jihadi groups. (Reuters)

The Free Syrian Army has acquired surface-to-air Stinger missiles but they have not been used yet, a source in the Syrian opposition told Al Arabiya. The U.S.-based source said the missiles were not used against the Syrian Army fighter jet downed last Monday. The source said it was shot down by anti-aircraft guns.

“There is no indication that the Free Syrian Army has used the Stinger missiles yet,” the source said.

Another source familiar with the operations of Syrian opposition fighters confirmed that 14 Stinger missiles have been delivered to the Free Syrian Army at the İskenderun area on the border with Turkey. The source said both Turkey and the United States are aware of the arms delivery.

The source, which asked not to be named, said “financing has probably come from Saudi Arabia, but the origin might be different.”

The U.S. Department of Defense declined to comment.

Syrian opposition fighters have been engaged in fierce fighting against the government army to control the city of Alepppo, the country’s commercial capital. The government army has been increasingly using air force to hit the rebels who don’t have the firepower to defend themselves from air attacks.

The United States has been reluctant about arming the Syrian opposition fighters due to fears that weapons sent to them might reach the hands of Jihadi fighters who arrived to Syria from Iraq, the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa.

Al Arabiya sources said the American government wanted to ensure that the missiles are delivered to known units of the Free Syrian Army and not Jihadi groups operating in Syria. The acquisition and use of Stinger missiles might indicate a more direct involvement by the U.S. and NATO in the Syrian conflict.

Oil falls to $114 as U.S. considers oil release | Reuters

August 17, 2012

Oil falls to $114 as U.S. considers oil release | Reuters.

LONDON | Fri Aug 17, 2012 2:53pm IST

(Reuters) – Brent crude oil fell to around $114 on Friday after the United States said it was considering the possible release of oil reserves to dampen prices and the Israeli president spoke out against any lone Israeli attack on Iran.

News the White House was “dusting off old plans” for a potential release of strategic oil stocks helped knock more than $1 per barrel of Brent, which hit a three-month high on Thursday.

The global benchmark has risen more than a third in less than two months on worries that conflict over Iran’s disputed nuclear programme could lead to war, disrupting oil supplies from the Middle East.

But the oil price rally has come at a time when world economic growth is slowing, dampening demand for fuel, and oil supplies have been ample, helping restock inventories, and many investors feel the recent price rises have been overdone.

Brent crude fell $1.40 to a low of $113.87 a barrel before recovering to around $114.00 by 1008 GMT. The September contract which expired on Thursday ended at the highest since May 2. U.S. oil slipped 40 cents to $95.10, after settling up $1.27.

“The market moved a long way in quite a short time and we are now seeing some profit-taking,” said Eugen Weinberg, global head of commodities research at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

“But sentiment towards commodities and other ‘riskier’ assets has improved with the euro strengthening and the dollar easier. The market is looking for reasons to correct a little.”

U.S. officials will monitor market conditions over the coming weeks, watching whether gasoline prices fall after the September 3 Labor Day holiday, in line with usual practice, a Washington source with knowledge of the situation told Reuters.

The United States has not yet held talks with international partners about a coordinated move. The source said Britain, France, Germany and other partner nations in the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) had been receptive to a potential release a few months ago when conditions were similar.

Britain’s energy ministry said on Friday it was prepared to ask the IEA to take action to deal with high oil prices, however neither it nor its partners had made any decisions to release stocks.

Japan and South Korea saw no need yet for a release from reserves, government sources said on Friday.

ISRAEL VS IRAN

Oil prices were also dampened by easing concerns of a supply disruption from the Middle East after Israeli President Shimon Peres downplayed the prospect of a unilateral strike on Iran.

Peres said on Thursday he trusted U.S. President Barack Obama’s pledge to prevent Tehran from producing nuclear weapons.

Peres’ comments appeared to challenge Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak, who have both raised the prospect of a unilateral Israeli strike.

Oil prices received some support from comments by German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday, which helped push stock markets to multi-month highs on Friday and boosted the euro.

Merkel voiced support for ECB President Mario Draghi’s euro crisis-fighting strategy and pressed her European partners to move swiftly towards a closer integration of fiscal policies, saying time was running short.

Hopes the euro bloc may finally be getting a grip on its problems lifted top European shares in early trading with the main indexes in London .FTSE, Paris .FCHI and Frankfurt .GDAXI all in positive territory, helping the MSCI index of global shares .MIWD00000PUS extend an 11.5 percent gain that started back in June.

The euro was buoyant around $1.235 and hit a six-month high versus the yen.

Investors are now looking for indications on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will initiate more measures to stimulate growth, with data still suggesting that the world’s biggest economy hasn’t reached a stage of steady recovery.

(Additional reporting by Manash Goswami and Elizabeth Law in Singapore; Editing by Alison Birrane)

Israel pushing Washington to up the Iranian ante | Reuters

August 17, 2012

Israel pushing Washington to up the Iranian ante | Reuters.

08/16/2012
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem August 12, 2012. REUTERS/Abir Sultan/Pool

JERUSALEM | Fri Aug 17, 2012 11:34am BST

(Reuters) – An upsurge in Israeli rhetoric warning of an imminent attack on Iran is aimed more at Washington than Tehran, and does not mean that the warplanes are firing up their engines.

A plethora of media reports over the past week has sent shivers through financial markets by suggesting that Israel might strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities ahead of U.S. presidential elections in November.

However, senior Israeli officials say a final decision has not yet been taken, with government ministers still at loggerheads over the issue and the military hierarchy unhappy about the prospect of going it alone without full U.S. backing.

But if U.S. President Barack Obama does not lay out his red lines in the coming weeks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may feel compelled to act, his inner circle says.

“Tehran doesn’t see a U.S. strike on the horizon and is confident Washington will prevent Israel from attacking,” said a senior Israeli official, who declined to be named.

“So Israel is looking for stronger public statements from Obama, either at the U.N. General Assembly or some other forum, that would change Iran’s assessment,” he added.

While Tehran says its nuclear programme is peaceful, Western powers believe it is trying to produce an atomic bomb, and Israel views it as an existential threat to the Jewish state.

Netanyahu is set to travel to the General Assembly at the end of September and hopes to meet Obama to discuss the crisis.

He wants to secure three commitments: a pledge that the United States will attack if Iran does not back down; a tight deadline for negotiations with Tehran, which have so far proved fruitless; and a further tightening of the sanctions noose.

“Israel is telling President Obama that unless there is a change of tack, Israel will go it alone. I do believe that Netanyahu is serious about this,” said Ehud Yaari, an Israel-based fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

DEJA VU?

To a degree we have been here before.

In November 2011 there was a similar upsurge in alarmist chatter about the possibility of a unilateral Israeli strike. On that occasion it was a clear attempt to get world powers to ratchet up economic sanctions on Iran. It worked.

This time, Israel is telling the world the sanctions aren’t proving effective and that only military force, or the very real threat of it, will dissuade Iran, as happened in 2003, when Tehran temporarily halted its nuclear work following the U.S. invasion of Iraq, fearing it would be next in the firing line.

“Iran will not engage seriously unless their situation is so bad that the alternative, giving up on their nuclear ambitions, will look better,” said Emily Landau, a senior research associate at the Institute for National Security Studies.

But there is a fear in Israel that Netanyahu and his wily defence minister, Ehud Barak, have overplayed their hand.

U.S. officials have expressed incredulity at the chutzpah of the Israeli leadership in trying to corner Obama less than 100 days before his highly delicate re-election bid.

“I don’t know what they are playing at,” said a U.S. diplomat in Israel, adding: “A unilateral strike by Israel would be an act of folly.”

In what was widely perceived in Israel as sharp slapdown for Netanyahu, U.S. General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, cautioned this week that any Israeli strike would not destroy Iran’s nuclear programme.

“I may not know about all of their capabilities, but I think that it’s a fair characterization to say that they could delay but not destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities,” he said.

MISSION DELAY

However, Israel has never claimed its air force, which lacks heavy bombers, could wipe out Iran’s distant, numerous and well-fortified facilities. Instead, officials argue that buying time would be a good enough result.

“If we succeed in pushing off the nuclear program by six or eight or 10 years, there’s a good chance that the (Iranian) regime will not survive,” an unidentified top “decision maker”, widely believed to be Barak, told Haaretz newspaper last Friday.

“So the objective is delay,” he added.

Cynics say the objective could equally be to drag America into the war through a precipitous action, with Obama likely to face irresistible domestic pressure to leap to Israel’s side.

A U.S. blogger published this week what he claimed were Israel’s war plans leaked by an Israeli army officer.

The document promises “an unprecedented cyber-attack”, a “barrage” of cruise missiles “to completely decapitate Iran’s professional and command ranks” followed by an air attack by planes with special equipment to render them invisible.

Compelling doubts have been raised about the veracity of the document. A similar version appeared days earlier on an Israeli internet forum that said it was based on “Israeli publications, foreign media reports and the author’s own imagination”.

Nonetheless, the spin, leaks and anonymous briefings have spread anxiety, with queues building for gas masks at Israeli distribution centres and hedge funds laying bets on a potential spike in oil prices because of the war threat.

“All this exceeds anything I have ever seen before, and I have been around a long time,” said Uri Dromi, a spokesman for former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, who accused Netanyahu of reckless scare-mongering and damaging ties with Washington.

“It seems like he has forgotten who is the super power here,” he said.

Certainly, when Israel undertook daring attacks in the past, there was no wild public debate beforehand – such as in 1981 when it destroyed a nuclear plant in Iraq and again in a 2007 raid on Syria, which apparently targeted a nascent reactor.

David Albright, founder of the Institute for Science and International Security, said he thought all the noise and fury could be an Israeli bid to shift world focus away from Syria and back to Iran. He did not see it as a prelude to a strike.

“No. I don’t think so, because usually they would go very quiet,” he said.

(Additional reporting by Tabassum Zakaria in Washington; Editing by Will Waterman)

Iran: Israel’s existence ‘insult to all humanity’ – CBS News

August 17, 2012

Iran: Israel’s existence ‘insult to all humanity’ – CBS News.

TEHRAN, Iran — Iran’s president says Israel’s existence is an “insult to all humanity.”

It’s one of his sharpest attacks yet against the Jewish state. It comes as Israel openly debates whether to attack Iran over its nuclear program.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said confronting Israel is an effort to “protect the dignity of all human beings.”

He was addressing worshippers at Tehran University after nationwide pro-Palestinian rallies, an annual event marking Quds (Jerusalem) Day on the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan.

Iran and Israel have been bitter enemies for decades. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has called Israel a “cancerous tumor” that must be wiped out.

Israel considers Iran an existential threat because of its nuclear and missile programs and repeated references by Iranian leaders to Israel’s destruction.