WarSclerotic

Israel media talk of imminent Iran war push | World | Reuters.

By Dan Williams

JERUSALEM (Reuters) – Israel’s prime minister and defence minister would like to attack Iran’s nuclear sites before the U.S. election in November but lack crucial support within their cabinet and military, an Israeli newspaper said on Friday.

The front-page report in the biggest-selling daily Yedioth Ahronoth came amid mounting speculation – fuelled by media leaks from both the government and its detractors at home and abroad – that war with Iran could be imminent even though it might rupture the bedrock ties between Israel and the United States.

“Were it up to Benjamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak, an Israeli military strike on the nuclear facilities in Iran would take place in the coming autumn months, before the November election in the United States,” Yedioth said in the article by its two senior commentators, which appeared to draw on discussions with the defence minister but included no direct quotes.

Spokesmen for Prime Minister Netanyahu and Barak declined to comment.

Yedioth said the top Israeli leaders had failed to win over other security cabinet ministers for a strike on Iran now, against a backdrop of objections by the armed forces given the big tactical and strategic hurdles such an operation would face.

“The respect which in the past formed a halo around prime ministers and defence ministers and helped them muster a majority for military decisions, is gone, no more,” Yedioth said. “Either the people are different, or the reality is different.”

Israel has long threatened to attack its arch-foe, seeing a mortal menace in Iranian nuclear advances and dwindling opportunities to deal them a blow with its limited military clout. Washington has urged Israel to give diplomacy more time.

The war talk is meant, in part, to stiffen sanctions on Tehran – which denies seeking the bomb and says its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes – by conflict-wary world powers. Israel and the United States have publicly sought to play down their differences, the latter saying military force would be a last-ditch option against Iran.

A Reuters survey in March found that most Americans would support such action, by their government or Israel’s, should there be evidence Iran was building nuclear weapons – even if the result was a rise in gas prices.

BOMB, BALLOT

But U.S. President Barack Obama, seeking re-election in November, has counselled against what he would deem premature Israeli unilateralism. He recently sent top officials to try to close ranks with the conservative Netanyahu.

Obama’s Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, an old friend of Netanyahu who casts himself as a more reliable bulwark for Israeli security, also visited Jerusalem last month.

The Yedioth article said, without citing sources, that some government advisers in Israel and the United States believed a pre-November strike might “embarrass Obama and contribute to Romney‮‮‮‮‮‮‮’‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‎s chances of being elected.”

Yedioth said the aim of an initial Israeli attack on Iran could be to trigger an escalation that would draw in superior U.S. forces – but described Barak as dismissive of this theory.

“He believes that America will not go to war, but will do everything in its power to stop it. It will give Israel the keys to its emergency (munitions) stores, which were set up in Israel in the past. Israel needs no more than this,” Yedioth said.

Netanyahu, apparently trying to avoid being seen as meddling in U.S. politics, has voiced gratitude for cross-partisan support of Israel in Washington, while insisting his country remains responsible for its own security.

Haaretz, an influential liberal Israeli newspaper, quoted an unnamed senior official in the Netanyahu government as saying the Jewish state – widely assumed to have the region’s only atomic arsenal – potentially faced a greater danger from Iran than on the eve of its 1967 war with several Arab neighbours.

That thinking seems to be gaining ground domestically.

A poll published on Friday by the mass-circulation Maariv daily found that 41 percent of Israelis saw no chance of non-military pressure on Iran succeeding, versus 22 percent who thought diplomacy could work.

While 39 percent of Maariv’s respondents said dealing with Iran should be left to the United States and other world powers, 35 percent said they would support Israel going it alone as a last resort – up from previous polls that found around 20 percent support for the unilateral option.

(Writing by Dan Williams; Editing by Douglas Hamilton and Tim Pearce)

Iran steps up nuclear warhead work, Israeli media report.

Sunday, 12 August 2012

Israel, widely reputed to have the region’s sole atomic arsenal, sees a nuclear-armed Iran as a mortal menace and has long threatened to attack its arch-foe preemptively. (Reuters)

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Iran has stepped up work to develop a nuclear warhead, Israeli newspapers said on Sunday, citing officials in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and leaked U.S. intelligence.

The front-page reports in the liberal Haaretz, a frequent Netanyahu critic, and in the conservative, pro-government Israel Hayom could intensify Israeli debate about whether to go to war against Iran – and soon – over its disputed atomic projects.

Doing so would defy appeals by U.S. President Barack Obama, seeking re-election in November, to allow more time for international diplomacy. Tehran says its nuclear ambitions are peaceful and has threatened wide-ranging reprisals if attacked.

Israel, widely reputed to have the region’s sole atomic arsenal, sees a nuclear-armed Iran as a mortal menace and has long threatened to attack its arch-foe preemptively.

The war talk is meant, in part, to stiffen sanctions on Tehran by conflict-wary world powers. Israel and the United States have publicly sought to play down their differences.

Much of the media scrutiny has been on opposition to the war option within the Israeli cabinet, military and public, given the tactical and strategic risks involved. But opinion polls suggest support for an attack is growing.

Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper suggested on Friday that a destabilizing Israeli attack on Iran before November could undermine Obama, a Democrat whose ties with Netanyahu have been testy, and help Republican rival Mitt Romney, who casts himself as a better friend of the Jewish state.

But a senior Israeli official quoted in a separate Haaretz story spoke of the question of who would head the next U.S. administration as largely irrelevant regarding Iran given Israel’s belief that “we cannot place our fate in the hands of others” and “in statesmanship there are no future contracts”.

That official was described by Haaretz as a “decision-maker” and veteran security figure who owns a grand piano – strong signals it was Ehud Barak, Israel’s longtime, centrist defense minister. Ex-general Barak is also an accomplished pianist who has recently briefed media in his Tel Aviv penthouse.

Though the Obama administration has refused to rule out a U.S. war of last resort to deny Iran the means to make a bomb, the Israeli official quoted by Haaretz said “expectation of such a binding American assurance now is not serious”.

“And if Mitt Romney is elected, history shows that presidents do not undertake dramatic operations in their first year in office unless forced to,” the Israeli official said.

Jerusalem Post – Breaking News.

PM rebuffs reports that home fro… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

Photo: Israel Aerospace Industries/Reuters

US sets up teams with Israel, Jordan, Turkey against chemical attack.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 12, 2012, 12:51 PM (GMT+02:00)

Chemical bomb shells

The United States last week began laying plans for the contingency of Syrian chemical warfare by setting up joint military, intelligence and medical working teams with Israel, Turkey and Jordan, all of which are feared under threat by Syrian president Bashar Assad, debkafile’s military sources report. The White House, the CIA and the Pentagon’s DIA are laying odds on a Syrian unconventional attack. All three countries under potential threat have put their medical services on the ready.
Because Jordan lacks the appropriate medical facilities, the United States and France have freighted over to the kingdom special forces trained in chemical warfare, military hospitals and hundreds of tons of medical equipment. Washington is taking into account that American military and strategic interests in all three countries may also be in danger.
In Istanbul, Saturday, Aug. 11, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton quite frankly discussed a chemical war scenario. Referring to working groups, she said: …we need to get into the real details of such operational planning and it needs to be across both our governments (US and Turkey). Our intelligence services and our military have very important responsibilities and roles to play, so we are going to be setting up a working group to do exactly that. We have planned for many contingencies, including the very horrible scenario of the use of chemical weapons.”
debkafile: The working group she announced for the US and Turkey has been replicated for the US and Israel and the US and Jordan.
Saturday, debkafile’s military and intelligence sources disclosed exclusively that Syrian rebels had been supplied by Turkey with their first batch of FIM-92 Stinger anti-air missiles. Bashar Assad may well treat this as a game-changer in the Syrian war and decide to retaliate by unleashing chemical weapons against the rebels and his foreign foes.

Israel readying for Iran strike tests missiles | P.M. NEWS Nigeria.

Published on August 12, 2012 by pmnews   ·   No Comments

Israel on Sunday began testing an SMS system for warning the public of an imminent missile attack as chatter over a possible strike on Iran dominated the Israeli press headlines.

As testing began, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had chalked up “a significant improvement” in its home front defence capabilities, mentioning its highly-vaunted anti-missile systems such as Iron Dome and Arrow 2.

“There has been a significant improvement in our level of defence capacity on the home front: with Iron Dome, with the Arrow, in terms of protection and shelters, in advanced warning systems and in other areas,” he said at the start of the weekly cabinet meeting.

“But all the threats which are directed towards the Israeli home front are dwarved by another threat — different in both its scope and its essence. And so I repeat: Iran must never be allowed to get nuclear weapons.”

With front page stories in two papers suggesting Tehran had made progress towards the manufacture and assembly of a nuclear warhead, Israel’s Home Front Command began final tests of the SMS warning system which is expected to be operational by September.

“The Home Front Command will today start conducting nationwide testing of the ‘Personal Message’ alert system, which will end on Thursday,” said a statement indicating that SMS texts in Hebrew, Arabic, English and Russian would be sent to subscribers on Israel’s three main networks: Cellcom, Pelephone and Orange.

The idea is that the SMS system could be used to warn the population of an imminent missile attack by Iran or Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia if Israel strikes Tehran’s nuclear facilities which it believes is a front for developing a bomb.

In recent days, talk of a possible strike on Iran has dominated the headlines, largely coming from unsourced officials quoting intelligence reports, none of which it was possible to verify.

“Iran has made progress toward nuclear warhead,” was the headline in the Haaretz newspaper.

“The Iranians greatest progress recently is in the manufacture and assembly of a nuclear warhead,” the paper said, quoting the official who was drawing his information from an intelligence report which an Israeli newspaper said was recently presented to US President Barack Obama.

Although US officials declined to comment on the report, Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak referred to it directly last week, saying it “brings the American assessment much much closer to ours” and makes the Iranian issue “a bit more urgent.”

“Not prepared for war” was the headline in Yediot Aharonot, which questioned Israel’s readiness to both mount a decisive military strike and to cope back home with the expected fallout.

“Will those preparations be enough to deal a crushing blow to Iran’s nuclear facilities and allow Israel to cope with the repercussions of such an attack?” it said. “It is not at all clear that that is the case.”

It quoted statistics saying 700,000 civilians did not have bomb shelters, only half of Israel’s population of 7.8 million people had gas masks, and that work to fortify 70 percent of the country’s hospitals would not be completed until 2015.

Although Israel charges that its arch foe Iran is driving for a nuclear bomb, the US intelligence services say only that they suspect it is seeking a weapons capability but that no decision has been taken on actually making one.

Israel is widely suspected to have the region’s sole, if undeclared, nuclear arsenal.

Iran steps up nuclear warhead work, Israel media report | Reuters.

* U.S. spy report cited, though Washington signals no change

* Reports come amid Israeli debate over whether to go to war

* Obama has called for more time for diplomacy with Tehran

By Dan Williams

JERUSALEM, Aug 12 (Reuters) – Iran has stepped up work to develop a nuclear warhead, Israeli newspapers said on Sunday, citing officials in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and leaked U.S. intelligence.

The front-page reports in the liberal Haaretz, a frequent Netanyahu critic, and in the conservative, pro-government Israel Hayom could intensify Israeli debate about whether to go to war against Iran – and soon – over its disputed atomic projects.

Doing so would defy appeals by U.S. President Barack Obama, seeking re-election in November, to allow more time for international diplomacy. Tehran says its nuclear ambitions are peaceful and has threatened wide-ranging reprisals if attacked.

Citing an unnamed senior Israeli official, Haaretz said a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) compiled by the Obama administration included a “last-minute update” about significant Iranian progress in the development of a nuclear warhead “far beyond the scope known” to U.N. inspectors.

Israel Hayom reported NIE findings that Iran had “boosted efforts” to advance its nuclear programme, including work to develop ballistic missile warheads, and said U.S. and Israeli assessments largely tallied on this intelligence.

Neither daily newspaper provided direct quotes or detailed evidence. For Haaretz, it was the second report since Thursday purporting to draw on a new NIE.

Israeli government spokesmen had no immediate comment. Asked about the reports in an Israel Radio interview, Cabinet Secretary Zvi Hauser suggested they be taken at face value.

“There is too much attribution of manipulation, which does not exist, to this or that official,” Hauser said. “There are a great many things that are just as they are, for better or worse.”

Washington has not commented on whether such an NIE exists. But its officials say the U.S. intelligence assessment remains that the Islamic republic is undecided on whether to build a bomb and is years away from any such nuclear capability.

DOMESTIC DIVIDE

Israel, widely reputed to have the region’s sole atomic arsenal, sees a nuclear-armed Iran as a mortal menace and has long threatened to attack its arch-foe preemptively.

The war talk is meant, in part, to stiffen sanctions on Tehran by conflict-wary world powers. Israel and the United States have publicly sought to play down their differences.

Much of the media scrutiny has been on opposition to the war option within the Israeli cabinet, military and public, given the tactical and strategic risks involved. But opinion polls suggest support for an attack is growing.

Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper suggested on Friday that a destabilising Israeli attack on Iran before November could undermine Obama, a Democrat whose ties with Netanyahu have been testy, and help Republican rival Mitt Romney, who casts himself as a better friend of the Jewish state.

But a senior Israeli official quoted in a separate Haaretz story spoke of the question of who would head the next U.S. administration as largely irrelevant regarding Iran given Israel’s belief that “we cannot place our fate in the hands of others” and “in statesmanship there are no future contracts”.

That official was described by Haaretz as a “decision-maker” and veteran security figure who owns a grand piano – strong signals it was Ehud Barak, Israel’s longtime, centrist defence minister. Ex-general Barak is also an accomplished pianist who has recently briefed media in his Tel Aviv penthouse.

Though the Obama administration has refused to rule out a U.S. war of last resort to deny Iran the means to make a bomb, the Israeli official quoted by Haaretz said “expectation of such a binding American assurance now is not serious”.

“And if Mitt Romney is elected, history shows that presidents do not undertake dramatic operations in their first year in office unless forced to,” the Israeli official said.

Attack on Iran Means Regional War: Ex-IDF General – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Jericho III Missile

Israel Aerospace Industries

An Israeli military attack on Iran would ignite a regional war, former IDF Operations Commander Yisrael Ziv told Army Radio Sunday.

Reiterating other officials’ observations that an attack cannot be compared with the aerial strike on the Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981, Ziv said, “We are talking about a number of operations and not just one.”

He also warned that a flood of statements from the offices of the Prime Minister and the Defense Ministry signal a “worrisome lack of security” in the government.

Knesset Member Tzachi HaNegbi issued a public plea to politicians on Sunday to keep quiet on Iran, but pundits both in Israel and elsewhere continue to make predictions and develop analyses in the wake of the latest reports that Iran is rapidly approaching its goal of developing a nuclear warhead that can be placed on a missile aimed at Israel.

Jeffrey Goldberg, writing in The Atlantic on Sunday, echoed Ziv’s warnings. “A strike could trigger an overt war without end… and an all-out missile war may escalate into something especially horrific, so in essence, Israel would be trading a theoretical war later for an actual war now,” he wrote.

Goldberg listed six other reasons against an Israeli military attack, ranging from the risk of the deaths of innocent people, both Iranian and Israeli, to a possible “disaster for the U.S.-Israel relationship.”

The recent escalation in warnings that Iran is rapidly approaching its unstated goal of developing a nuclear warhead, that presumably would be pointed at Israel, has been followed with analyses and predictions that cover every possibility of whether Iran nuclear capability is imminent or in the distant future.`1`

IsraCast: Israel Can’t Wait for Next U.S. President.

Sunday, August 12, 2012

Senior Israeli Official: ‘We Can’t Wake Up One Morning & Find Americans Have Done Nothing & Iran Has Nuclear Weapons’

‘There is No Way Of Knowing What Barack Obama Will Do While Mitt Romney Won’t Attack Iran In His First Year In Office’

‘Ronald Reagan Did Not Want Pakistan To Get the A-Bomb & Bill Clinton Opposed North Korea, But Both Countries Now Have Nuclear Weapons’

Defense Minister Ehud Barak (Photo: Amit Shabi)

A senior Israeli official (apparently Defense Minister Ehud Barak) has indicated that he has given up on the U.S. halting Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. In an in-depth interview with Haaretz, the official said Israel can no longer rely on a U.S. president, be it Obama or Romney, to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The official also said: ‘If we wait until next spring, Iran will have enough enriched uranium to produce its first nuclear weapon’. The official was depicetd as a controversial decision-maker, at the heart of Israeli security issues for some fifty years and who has unique strategic experience. There was also the tell-tale grand piano in his home where the interview took place. (Barak plays classical music). Analyst David Essing said the official was sending a message not only to the U.S., but also to the Israeli people and possibly to the IDF top brass, some of whose commanders are reportedly opposed to going it alone against Iran.

Is it game over?

It sounded as if it’s game over for Defense Minister Ehud Barak; Israel cannot count on either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney, to block Iran’s drive for nuclear weapons. The only rational option was for Israel to carry out an air strike on Iran’s nuclear weapons sites. This week’s reports that Iran has made ‘significant nuclear progress in the past four months’ have obviously lent a greater sense of urgency. The U.S. intelligence community has conveyed its latest assessment to the White House. On this score, the official said the U.S. and Israel had the ‘same diagnosis’ when it came to Tehran’s drive for the A-Bomb. However the two countries differed on what to do about it. President Obama is still sticking to the sanctions and nuclear talks with Iran. But it can be said that Prime Minister Netanyahu and Barak reject the notion that sanctions will ever do the trick. For their perspectived vantage point, four major players Russia, China, India and Turkey have gutted any chance for the sanctions gambit. In effect, Obama and the Ayatollahs have a common interest in playing for time until after the November presidential election.

But what of the possibility that a re-elected Obama might resort to military action, if all else failed. The Israeli official said this was a big ‘if’ that Israel could not rely upon. In his words: ‘We can’t wake up one morning to find the Americans have done nothing and the Iranians have nuclear weapons’. He noted that two prestigious U.S. presidents, Ronald Reagen and Bill Clinton, had opposed Pakistan and North Korea acquiring nuclear weapons and both leaders had struck out. Israel would never agree to abdicate its right of self-defense to any other country, no matter how friendly.

Iranian Nuclear Reactor

There was also a major difference on how long Israel could wait as compared with the U.S. With its limited fire-power, Israel might soon lose any chance of attacking because the Iranians were continually reinforcing their underground installations. On the other hand the Americans, with their new bunker-busters and cruise missiles, could wait much longer to deliver ‘a knockout whereas Israel would only be able to give Iran a black eye’.

If we wait until next spring……

The official said that five years ago, the Iranians had a stockpile of 800 kilograms of enriched uranium. Today they have amassed more than six and a half tons. And he concluded: ‘If we wait until next spring, they will have enough enriched uranium of 20% to produce their first nuclear weapon’. Nor was Israel ready to accept Iran becoming a threshold nuclear state, such as Germany or Japan, saying that this would enable Tehran to break out and acquire the A- Bomb in a short time.

Obama or Romney?

Nor did it matter who won the U.S. presidential election in November. Obama would go far beyond Barak’s ‘zone of immunity for Iran’, whereas history taught that ‘a new president would not take severe action unless the U.S. was attacked by an enemy’. So neither candidate would pull Israel’s chestnuts out of the fire. At the same time, the hour was late but under no condition would Israel try to deliberately drag the U.S. into a war. In the official’s words: ‘If we decide on an operation it must be justifiable in itself. It cannot be based on the supposition that it will ignite a major chain reaction. A state cannot go to war when a condition for success is the hope tht another state will join it. This would be a an irresponsible gamble’.

Iranian sword at Israel’s throat …

The official’s analogy of Israel’s current plight was particularly telling: ‘The sword at Israel’s throat today is is much sharper than the sword placed at her throat before the Six Day War (in 1967)’. In that crisis, the massed Arab armies were deployed on Israel’s borders threatening ‘to throw the Jews into the sea’. The then U.S. President Lyndon Johnson told Foreign Minister Abba Eban that President Dwight Eisenhower’s written commitment to come to Israel’s aid did not obligate him and that a diplomatic solution was the answer. In other words, Israel was on her own. Note also that former Mossad director Meir Dagan, who has voiced his opposition to a solo Israeli strike unless: ‘The sword has started cutting into the flesh of our throats!’ The Israeli official has indicated that it now is.

ISRAELI OPPOSITION TO SOLO STRIKE

IDF Maj.Gen.(res.) Yisrael Ziv warns that an Israeli attack on Iran could draw Israel into an all-out regional war because without U.S. and European aid, the IDF would find it difficult to cope with an ongoing confrontation. The result of such a war could be to Iran’s advantage in both the short and long terms. Ziv, a former chief of IDF Operations Branch, also criticized what he called the ‘media campaign’ being conducted by Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Barak in advance of an attack on Iran. Interviewed on Israel Radio, the general said this campaign reflected weakness rather than confident leadership. In addition, it also harmed relations with the U.S., insulted Israel’s security chiefs and restricted Israel’s freedom of action.

Labor party leader Shelli Yechimovich also blasted Netanyahu and Barak. In her opinion, the voices emanating from the offices of the prime minister and the defense minister were very worrying. While Yechimovich agreed that it was the perogative of the political leadership to decide, but when the heads of the security branches, both past and present, opposed an Israeli strike under the current circumstances, the refusal to pay heed bordered on irresponsibility. Moreover the making of a nuclear Iran Israel’s exclusive problem was a strategic mistake. A no less serious error was Israel’s confrontation with the Obama administration over Iran. On the other hand, it was no secret that all options were on the table. In light of this Yechimovich concluded: ‘This is not the time for Israel to choose the most dangerous option when the results were not at all certain’.

Fischer: Iran strike spells economic crisis – Israel Business, Ynetnews.

Governor of the Bank of Israel warns of dire effects of Israeli strike on Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities; says State gearing to deal with recession

Governor of the Bank of Israel Stanley Fischer said that the BOI has formed a special task force to deal with the economic crisis that is likely to follow an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

“A strike would have dire effects… We are gearing for such a situation,” he told Channel 2 news over the weekend.

Speaking of the new economic measures approved by the government this week, which included several tax hikes and a VATincrease, Fischer said that future measures may be still be necessary.

“The market’s situation has changed and things have deteriorated rather quickly,” he said. “We don’t know what will happen in the eurozone – if (the European crisis) turns out to have a snowball effect that we’ll have a serious problem on our hands – it will be the same crisis as we had in 2008,” Fischer warned.

When asked whether he as governor and the Bank of Israel as the leading financial institution were too complacent in determining the fiscal policies, Fischer said: “The current economic situation is good – not great – and I’ve said so before.

“We have to give the prime minister and the finance minister the credit they deserve for having the foresight to deal with a looming problem.”

The BOI chief added that he is following the soaring housing prices closely and that he does not rule out the possibility that the BOI would have to intervene in some way.

Fischer also dismissed the rumors that he was considering stepping down, as well as rumors that he may run for another office, “Such as that of the finance minister of the president.”