WarSclerotic

Jalili in Damascus underscores Iran’s commitment to Assad.

DEBKAfile Special Report August 7, 2012, 9:20 PM (GMT+02:00)

Saeed Saeed Jalili and Bashar Assad – closer than ever

Tehran gave Bashar Assad its strongest avowal of support Tuesday, Aug. 7, while heaping threats on the heads of his enemies.

Saeed Jalili, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, stood alongside the Syrian ruler in Damascus at the end of their talks and vowed not to let Iran’s “close partnership with the Syrian leadership to be shaken by the uprising or external foes” or the “axis of resistance (Iran, Syria, Hizballah) be broken in any way.” Assad then affirmed his determination to purge Syria of violence and bring his forces to victory.
debkafile: When Iranian and Syrian leaders refer to “external foes,” they mean the US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Israel.
Jalilii was sent to Damascus to publicly and unambiguously display Iran’s commitment to save Assad from being overthrown either by internal or external forces. He arrived from Beirut after a conference Monday with Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The Iranian official most likely laid before the Syrian ruler plans for the responses of the three allies to coming events in the Syrian conflict.
debkafile reported earlier Tuesday:

Tehran is not done with threats after shaking its fist at Israel: Tuesday, Aug. 7, Iranian Armed Forces Chief Gen. Hassan Firuzabadi pointed at Ankara and other Middle East capitals when he declared: “Turkey will be next in line for violence after Syria if it continues to work on behalf of Western interests.”

He went on to assert that “Ankara is toeing the Western (American) line in the region, like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. They are therefore accountable for the bloodshed in the Arab Republic [Syria]”
The Iranian army chief warned: “If those nations carry on this way, they should realize that Turkey is the next in line.”  He was in fact holding them all responsible for a potential outbreak of war with Turkey.
Spreading around responsibility for violence with accompanying threats appears to be Iran’s latest diplomatic ploy.
Earlier Tuesday, Tehran passed a message to Washington in which the United States was held responsible for the lives of the 48 Iranians nabbed by Syrian rebels in Damascus last week. The message was dropped off at the Swiss embassy in Tehran which handles US interests in the absence of diplomatic ties. It denied that the hostages were Revolutionary Guardsmen and insisted they were pilgrims to Shiite shrines in Syria. All the countries “supporting current events in Syria, starting with the US,” would be held responsible for their safety by Tehran.
The rebel Free Syrian Army‘s Al-Baraa Brigade has threatened to execute its Iranian “prisoners” if Syrian army shelling continues against Aleppo. Three were reported already dead as a result of that shelling.
Gen. Firuzabadi addressed his threat to Turkey shortly before the arrival in Ankara of Iran’s foreign minister, Ali-Akbar Salehi, in the hope of galvanizing the Turks into forcing the Syrian rebels to let go of their Iranian hostages.
Tehran now holds at least three nations, the US, Turkey and Israel, in peril of military action in the context of the Syrian conflict.  Israel was the object of the first threat of engulfment by the “Syrian fire.”
Director of Iran’s National Security Council Saeed Jalili arrived Monday in Beirut for urgent talks with Hizballah leaders, as disclosed by debkafile in an earlier report.

Iran reaffirms ‘unbreakable’ all… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

(A rat swimming to a sinking ship. – JW )

For the first time major publications have considered out loud the possibility of Israel using an EMP (Electro Magnetic Pulse) weapon against Iran. 

Two years ago, another time when it looked like the conflict was soon upon us, I posted about that possibility on this site.

I have reproduced my June 2010 post below. – JW

_____________________________________________________________

The Time Has Come…

“Freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose…”

Kris Kristofferson’s lyrics to his classic song Bobby McGee have never been more appropriate than they are right now to an Israel facing a soon to become nuclear Iran.

Any hope that the West, led by the US and Barak Obama would succeed in preventing this terrifying threat to world order have by now been completely dashed.  The hysteria over Israel’s enforcement of it’s blockade against the Iranian proxy Hamas, removes all doubt that the West will find any and all excuses to avoid confronting the threat posed to the world by radical Islam.

The parallels to the catastrophic “appeasement” policy towards Nazi Germany prior to 1939 are more than an exaggerated overstatement.  In many ways the parallels are frighteningly similar.

Germany, a country of 78 million in 1939 laid before the world its dream of an Aryan empire that would last a thousand years.  They also blamed all the troubles of the world on the Jews and promised to put an end to them.

The West stood by and did nothing as the Nazis built up the most powerful war machine in the world in contravention to the Versailles treaty.  What resulted was the greatest cataclysm in the history of the world.

Iran today,  also a country of 78 million  has announced its intentions to bring the world under the domination of Islamic sharia law.  It also blames the Jews for all the troubles in the world, although it includes the US as well.  While its war machine cannot compare to that of the US, its acquisition of nuclear weapons would make it safe from any retaliation for its continuing and increasing support for terrorism world wide.

Look at the reaction to the direct act of war by North Korea in its unprovoked sinking of the South Korean destroyer.  While North Korea blithely denies having committed the act, they threaten the Korean peninsula with war if any response is made against them.

Other than mealy mouthed tut-tutting, what has been the response of the civilized world?  Nothing at all.  Nor will there be for the very simple reason that the North has nuclear weapons.

Understand that this is the very reason Iran is so intent on acquiring these weapons at any cost.  They know that it will insure the survival of their corrupt and hated regime against any and all threats whether from without or within.

Israel at this point has nothing left to lose by putting an end to this Iranian threat once and for all.  The endless pundits and military analysts who claim that the most Israel can do is slow down their progress for a few years do so out of their ignorance of the power of EMP (Electro Magnetic Pulse).

A nuclear based EMP weapon launched on a Jericho III missile and detonated 150 miles above Iran would cause no casualties whatsoever to the people on the ground.  What it would do is destroy all electrical based equipment from radios to trucks to power grids to tanks to missiles to centrifuges.

The destruction is not temporary, it is permanent.  Every circuit board and electrical switching device in Iran would have to be replaced.  The net effect would be to remove Iran as a military threat on any level whatsoever for a minimum of one to two decades.

No more threats against the straights of Hormuz; their navy simply won’t function.  Their nuclear program would be permanently stopped dead its tracks.

The negative result would be an enormous humanitarian crisis, as the basics for the functioning of a modern society in Iran would be wiped out.  The entire world would have to pitch in to help the Iranian people survive the loss of their 21st century technology.

However, the cost of doing this and the unavoidable suffering that would result pales in comparison to the potential for true Armageddon should the radical Islamic mullahs gain the power of nuclear weapons.

Of course Israel would be roundly condemned by the entire world for taking this action, the same way it was when it destroyed Saddam Hussein’s Osirak reactor.  Nonetheless, underneath the condemnation would be the biggest sigh of relief the world has ever experienced.  The only powers that would be truly upset by such an action would be Iran’s terrorist proxies in Gaza and Lebanon and perhaps also North Korea.

Israel is a small country, but a great and powerful one at the same time.  Golda Meir is quoted as saying, “We Jews have a secret weapon in our struggle with the Arabs; we have no place to go.”  That remains the truth to this day.  While the Western nations look the other way as Iran develops the power to destroy the Jewish state, Israel does not have that luxury.

The time has come to put an end to radical Islam’s threat to the world.  Almost every violent struggle in the world today has at its root this atavistic and intolerant ideology whose world leader and main source of funding worldwide is Iran.

It is a very frightening choice for Israel to make.  The sad truth is that the weak-willed and hypocritical governments of the world have forced Israel’s hand.  It is no longer a choice, it is a necessity.

The time has come…

Joseph Wouk
June 3, 2010

Here’s How Israel Would Respond To An All-Out Missile Attack From Iran – Business Insider.

Iran’s possible nuclear program is dominating news from the Middle-East because Israel knows if it perfects a thermonuclear device, Tehran likely has the ability to deliver it aboard some of its current missiles.

Israel thinks this is too great a threat for it to allow.

The Jewish state has worked with the U.S. over the years to develop a pretty comprehensive missile defense system and we’ve outlined a rough version of it here, along with Iran’s biggest threats.

While Israel’s system strives to be fully comprehensive in its defense, if any of Iran’s rockets were strapped with a nuclear device — or if Iran could hand deliver a device into Israel — none of this preparation would mean much at all.

The homemade Qassam rocket has already been sent into Israel

Bukvoed / wikimedia

The Qassam rocketis typically manufactured by Palestinian militants and fired into Israel without advanced guidance capabilities. They cost an estimated $800 each.They’re a very, very basic type of missile, propelled by a solid mixture of potassium nitrate fertilizer mixed with sugar. The warhead is typically scavenged TNT or urea nitrate. They have no guidance mechanism beyond aiming, and an estimated 2,048 were fired into Israel in 2008.

Grad missiles have killed 22 people since 2000

Morag Agmon

Since 2006, Hamas has been lobbing ex-Soviet 122mm Grad missile into Israel. The missiles are likely copies imported from Iran or China, brought into the Gaza strip from tunnels to Egypt.These rockets have a range of 20 kilometers, but are typically fired from a moving launcher, greatly expanding their abilities.

The Grad rockets, with the improvised Qassam rockets, have caused some of the most pain in Israel, claiming the lives of 22 citizens since 2000.

The Sejjil missile is capable of striking Tel Aviv, Israel

Youtube / screenshot

Tel Aviv, Israel is roughly 1,600 kilometersfrom Tehran, Iran. That, for all intent and purposes, is the magic number here; a central point in Iran to a central point in Israel is roughly 1,600 km. These are the ballistic missiles that can allegedly make that trip.The Sejjil missile is a solid-fueled Iranian surface-to-surface missile that is roughly 58 feet long and can travel between 2000 and 2500 kilometers, bringing Israel well within its range.

That missile is strikingly similar to the Iranian Ashoura missile, with an alleged range of 2,000 km. That medium ranged ballistic missile has been in service since November 1997.

The Shabab-3 missile can also reach deep into Israel from Iran and carries multiple warheads

(Yes, it’s photoshopped. But still, at least one of these is the Shabab-3

YouTube

The original Shabab-3 missile should only reach 1,280 km, but the upgraded Medium Range Ballistic missile version can allegedly reach up to 1,950 kilometers.The Fajr-3 missile is likewise a medium range Ballistic missile, but it has the ability to launch multiple reentry vehicles. What does that mean? A single rocket can release multiple warheads, each aimed at the same target in the hope that the multiple warheads overwhelm the missile defense system.

Essentially, Israel would have to contend with these long and short-range threats

Rocket fires from the Gaza strip

paffairs_sanfransisco / flickr

Both a long-range ballistic missile assault and a short range rocket attack. Then, provided the air defense worked, retaliation.They’ve been preparing for the long range threat for some time, and that’s one area where the U.S. has been of some assistance. However, the short range rockets were an unexpected development for the Israel Defense Forces, and they had to adapt quickly to protect population centers.

Israel’s existing air defense system is made up of three main parts

Missile Defense Agency

The Israel Defense Forces have three main ways to take out an incoming missile

• The Iron Dome is the first tier of aerial defense designed to take out mortars and short range rockets incoming from the Gaza territories
• The Patriot missile system, acquired from the United States, is designed to intercept aircraft and incoming medium range missiles.
• The Arrow Anti-Ballistic missile defense system is designed to take out incoming long range ballistic missiles. It’s capable of destroying the missiles when they’re outside the atmosphere.

The Iron Dome is the first line of defense

NatanFlayer / wikimedia

The Iron Domeis made up of a tracking radar, a command console and a missile launcher. It is designed to take out those Qassam improvised rockets.The Iron Dome is largely successful because the IDF prioritizes incoming missiles. If a Qassam missile is poised to land in an uninhabited region, the IDF would instead target a missile poised to strike a populated city.

The system has been very effective at minimizing the domestic impact of the Qassam missile. Iron Dome went from conceptualization to reality in four short years, nearly unprecedented for a defense project. The U.S. has provided funding and support, and is getting some systems in the future. 

Even though it was designed in the sixties, the Patriot system is still decades ahead of the incoming missile’s tech

Public Domain / Wikimedia

The United States first deployed the Patriot missile defense system in 1984. It’s made up of a stationary launcher that can hold four missiles and a command and control center that implements the missiles. The scanning radar enables the system to identify, target, and take out incoming aircraft or medium range missiles.Since the initial deployment, a large number of upgrades have been added into the system to keep it modern.

Still, given that the Patriot systems would be hypothetically aimed for incoming F-14 Tomcats or ex-Soviet ballistic missiles, the Reagan-era tech should be more than capable of overcoming the most devastating parts of the retro-assault.

The Arrow Missile System can take out those long range threats from a hypothetical Iranian bombardment

US Navy

The Arrow missile systemhas been operational since 2000. The United States and Israel developed the air defense system together, and it remains Israel’s primary long range air defense system.The system has demonstrated that it can take out a ballistic missile when it is outside the atmosphere. While the Iron Dome has mostly seen deployment in the south of Israel to defend from the most consistent short range rocket threat, the Arrow system is being deployed in the center of the country to maximize aerial protection.

It is manufactured by Israel Aerospace Industries and Boeing. 

David’s Sling, when complete, will complement the Iron Dome system by hitting medium sized threats

Press Photo / Rafael

The David’s Sling missileis being jointly developed by the Israeli contractor Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and American contractor Raytheon.The missile is designed to intercept medium to long range rockets and some cruise missiles, and in general to aid the Iron Dome in defending Israeli air space.

The idea is that David’s Sling would take care of rockets and cruise missile that exceed the speed and range of the Iron Dome system but are too small to warrant the use of the Arrow system. It’s currently being tested before full integration.

It’s worth noting that there is a small but important American military presence in Israel

U.S. Missile Defense Agency

The only foreign troops stationed in Israel are a force of Americans manning a Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) X-band radar system on Mt. Keren in the Negev desert.What does this mean? Well, the THAAD system is one of the best aerial defense systems in the world. If anything goes into the air in the region, Americans will know about it before anyone else, even the Israelis.

This — as well as multiple aircraft carriers and destroyers already placed in the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean — could give Israel the extra firepower it needs to deter and retaliate against an attack.

More Syrians flee to Turkey as fighting spreads – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Ankara official says 1,328 Syrian refugees crossed border by midmorning as government troops steadily shelling rebel-controlled parts of Aleppo. Jalili to Assad: Iran will absolutely not allow axis of resistance to be broken

Associated Press

More than 1,300 Syrians fled to Turkey overnight to escape the civil war as rebels tried to expand their hold inside Syria‘s largest city despite two weeks of withering counterattacks by President Bashar Assad’s troops.

Assad, meanwhile, met in Damascuswith an envoy from key ally Iran and was quoted by Syrian official media as vowing to fight on.

Heavily armed government troops have been steadily shelling rebel-controlled parts of Aleppo, particularly Salaheddine and other districts on the southwestern edge of the strategic city.

Aleppo-based activists said clashes were going on Tuesday near the historic city center. That suggests the rebels were making some inroads in Aleppo, which lies some 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the Turkish border.

Intense government bombardment of the Syrian town of Tal Rafaat closer to the border sent scores of people spilling into Turkey for safety, according to the activists.

A Turkish government official said 1,328 Syrian refugees had crossed the border by midmorning – nearly double the number of refugees who reached Turkey on Monday. The official spoke on condition of anonymity in line with government rules.

Close to 48,000 Syrians have now found refuge in Turkey, which has served as a staging ground for rebels fighting Assad’s regime.

“We are expecting a massacre in Aleppo. The regime is bringing reinforcements to the city because they believe that if Aleppo falls, the regime will fall,” said a Syrian refugee in Turkey who identified himself as Abu Ahmad.

“The city is being bombed from the air and ground,” he said, adding he was in daily contact with residents still in the city.

Aleppo neighborhood (Photo: Reuters)

The rebels appeared also to be bringing in reinforcements.

A video posted online by activists Tuesday showed a large group of Free Syrian Army rebels in military fatigues and carrying rocket-propelled grenades and automatic rifles. The fighters were seen announcing that they were joining the “Unification Brigade,” the main group of rebels in Aleppo, to assist in the “liberation” of the city.

“They have Satan on their side, we have God on ours,” one rebel shouts. “We are coming, Aleppo,” shouts another. The authenticity of the video could not be independently verified.

Despite a ferocious crackdown, rebels in Syria have grown more confident and are using increasingly bolder tactics both in Aleppo and in the Syrian capital, Damascus.

In a brazen, daylight attack, rebels on Saturday abducted a group of 48 Iranians near Damascus, branding them as spies assisting in Assad’s crackdown.

Iransaid those captured when their bus was commandeered were pilgrims visiting a Shiite shrine on the outskirts of Damascus. On Tuesday, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it holds the US responsible for the fate of the abducted Iranians.

Iran’s state IRNA news agency said the ministry summoned the Swiss envoy in Tehran late Monday to stress that Iran expects Washington to use its influence to secure the Iranians’ release. The Swiss look after U.S. interests in Iran since Tehran and Washingtonhave no diplomatic relations.

The abductions threaten to suck Iran deeper into Syria’s civil war and the wider political brinksmanship around the region. Iran says it has no fighting forces aiding Assad, and it has sharply amplified its criticism of countries supporting the rebels such as Turkey and Gulf states led by Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Rebels in Idlib (Photo: Reuters)

The Iranian Embassy in Turkey said Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi was traveling Tuesday to Turkey, where he was to meet with his Turkish counterpart to discuss Syria and the abducted Iranians.

In Damascus, a senior Iranian envoy, Saeed Jalili, met with Assad on Tuesday, according to the Syrian state-run news agency, SANA. State TV showed a picture of Assad sitting across from Jalili at the presidential palace – the president’s second appearance on TV since a July 18 bombing in Damascus killed four of his top security officials, including his brother in law.

Assad has not spoken publicly since, and his low profile has raised speculation that he fears for his personal safety as the civil war escalates.

SANA quoted Assad as saying Tuesday that the Syrian people and government are “intent on cleansing the country from terrorists and combating terrorism without leniency.”

The news agency said Assad and Jalili discussed their two countries’ “strategic cooperation relationship” and “attempts by some Western countries and their allies to strike at the axis of resistance by targeting Syria and supporting terrorism there.”

SANA also quoted Jalili telling Assad: “Iran will absolutely not allow the axis of resistance, of which it considers Syria to be a main pillar, to be broken.”

Syrian rebels, meanwhile, claimed three of the Iranian captives were killed on Monday during shelling by government forces in Damascus and its suburbs, and threatened to kill the remaining Iranians unless the army stopped its bombardment.

“The Syrian regime is responsible for anything that happens to the Iranians,” a representative of the Baraa Brigades, which claimed responsibility for the group’s abduction, told The Associated Press on Skype.

The representative’s claim that three were killed could not be independently verified. An official at the Iranian Embassy in Damascus said he had no information on the subject.

US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, on a visit to South Africa, said Tuesday that the defections of Syria’s prime minister and other officials increase the urgency of planning for Asssad’s ouster. She said it is important to make sure that Syrian state institutions remain intact once Assad loses his grip on power.

Clinton spoke a day after the defection of Prime Minister Riad Hijab, the latest in a string of high-level departures from the Assad regime.

She said the opposition is becoming increasingly effective and better armed, but that “this terrible violence” has been hard on the Syrian people.

While skirmishes were reported in the Syrian capital overnight and its suburbs Tuesday, the main battle has now moved 350 kilometers (215 miles) north to Aleppo, where rebels seized several neighborhoods two weeks ago and have proved difficult to dislodge.

If the opposition were to gain control of Aleppo, Syria’s commercial hub, that would be a major blow to the regime and give the rebels a base of operations inside the country.

Ahmad Saleh, a Syrian from the town of Tal Rifaat near the Turkish border, said the town was shelled Monday from the nearby air base of Minnegh, killing two people.

Saleh, who fled to Turkey after midnight Tuesday, said pharmacies and grocery shops in Tal Rifaat were closed.

“The situation is miserable and it is not possible to find goods,” he said. “We had to choose between dying in Syria or coming to Turkey.”

Iran threatens US, Turkey after Israel with spreading Syrian conflict.

DEBKAfile Special Report August 7, 2012, 3:02 PM (GMT+02:00)

Iran’s top soldier Gen. Hasan Firuzabadi

Tehran is not done with threats after shaking its fist at Israel: Tuesday, Aug. 7, Iranian Armed Forces Chief Gen. Hassan Firuzabadi pointed at Ankara and other Middle East capitals when he declared: “Turkey will be next in line for violence after Syria if it continues to work on behalf of Western interests.”

He went on to assert that “Ankara is toeing the Western (American) line in the region, like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. They are therefore accountable for the bloodshed in the Arab Republic [Syria]”
The Iranian army chief warned: “If those nations carry on this way, they should realize that Turkey is the next in line.”  He was in fact holding them all responsible for a potential outbreak of war with Turkey.
Spreading around responsibility for violence with accompanying threats appears to be Iran’s latest diplomatic ploy.
Earlier Tuesday, Tehran passed a message to Washington in which the United States was held responsible for the lives of the 48 Iranians nabbed by Syrian rebels in Damascus last week. The message was dropped off at the Swiss embassy in Tehran which handles US interests in the absence of diplomatic ties. It denied that the hostages were Revolutionary Guardsmen and insisted they were pilgrims to Shiite shrines in Syria. All the countries “supporting current events in Syria, starting with the US,” would be held responsible for their safety by Tehran.
The rebel Free Syrian Army‘s Al-Baraa Brigade has threatened to execute its Iranian “prisoners” if Syrian army shelling continues against Aleppo. Three were reported already dead as a result of that shelling.
Gen. Firuzabadi addressed his threat to Turkey shortly before the arrival in Ankara of Iran’s foreign minister, Ali-Akbar Salehi, in the hope of galvanizing the Turks into forcing the Syrian rebels to let go of their Iranian hostages.
Tehran now holds at least three nations, the US, Turkey and Israel, in peril of military action in the context of the Syrian conflict.  Israel was the object of the first threat of engulfment by the “Syrian fire.”
Director of Iran’s National Security Council Saeed Jalili arrived Monday in Beirut for urgent talks with Hizballah leaders, as disclosed by debkafile in an earlier report.

Michael Oren: Time Is Short For Iran Diplomacy – WSJ.com.

Iran is the world’s leading terror sponsor without nuclear weapons. With them, it can commit incalculable atrocities.

By MICHAEL OREN

Nearly two decades ago, Israel started alerting the world about Iran’s nuclear program. But the world ignored our warnings, wasting 10 years until the secret nuclear enrichment plant at Natanz was exposed in 2002. Then eight more invaluable years were lost before much of the international community imposed serious sanctions on Iran.

Throughout that time, the ayatollahs systematically lied about their nuclear operations, installing more than 10,000 centrifuges, a significant number of them in a once-secret underground facility at Qom. Iran has blocked International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors from visiting its nuclear sites, refused to answer questions about the military aspects of its program, and rejected all confidence-building measures. Iran has tested long-range missiles capable of reaching any city in the Middle East and, in the future, beyond.

Iran is also the world’s leading state sponsor of terror. It has supplied more than 70,000 rockets to terrorist organizations deployed on Israel’s borders and has tried to murder civilians across five continents and 25 countries, including in the United States. In July, Iranian-backed Hezbollah terrorists killed five Israeli tourists, among them a pregnant woman, in Bulgaria. Iran’s forces have attacked American troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. Its agents are operating in Yemen, Africa and South America. By providing fighters and funds, Iran is enabling Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad to massacre his own people.

Iran has done all this without nuclear weapons. With them, it can commit incalculable atrocities anywhere in the world, beginning with Israel. As the chief of staff of the Iranian military recently stated, “the Iranian nation stands for the full annihilation of Israel.” Last week, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said “the annihilation of the Zionist regime is the key for solving the world problems.”

Accordingly, Israel believes that Iran is far from forfeiting its nuclear ambitions. Our conviction is based on Iran’s record of subterfuge and terror together with its genocidal rhetoric. It also reflects the inability of the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany (the “P5+1”) to negotiate a compromise with Iran.

In their first round of talks with Iranian officials, late in 2009, the P5+1 demanded the suspension of all enrichment activities in Iran and the transfer of its stockpiles, then enriched to 3.5%, abroad. Iran rejected those conditions and escalated its enrichment process to 20%, which can be enhanced to weapons-grade in a matter of weeks.

Iran now has amassed roughly 225 pounds of 20% uranium and 11,000 pounds of 3.5%, sufficient for almost five nuclear bombs. Rather than stand by its initial demands, however, the P5+1 is now seeking merely the cessation of Iran’s 20% enrichment, the removal of its 20% stockpile, and the closure of the facility at Qom. Arguably, this would be the first stage in the phasing out of Iran’s nuclear program. But Iran has rejected even this preliminary gesture.

Iran will continue to drag out the negotiations while installing more centrifuges. These, according to the IAEA, are spinning even faster. The sanctions, which have dealt a blow to Iran’s economy, have not affected the nuclear program. Meanwhile, more of Iran’s expanding stockpile will be hidden in fortified bunkers beyond Israel’s reach.

No country has a greater stake than Israel in using negotiations and economic pressure to dissuade Iran from developing nuclear weapons. We appreciate the determination of President Obama and the U.S. Congress to advance the sanctions and their pledge to keep all options on the table.

At the same time, the president has affirmed Israel’s right “to defend itself, by itself, against any threat,” and “to make its own decision about what is required to meet its security needs.” Historically, Israel has exercised that right only after exhausting all reasonable diplomatic means. But as the repeated attempts to negotiate with Iran have demonstrated, neither diplomacy nor sanctions has removed the threat.

A combination of truly crippling sanctions and a credible military threat—a threat that the ayatollahs still do not believe today—may yet convince Iran to relinquish its nuclear dreams. But time is dwindling and, with each passing day, the lives of eight million Israelis grow increasingly imperiled. The window that opened 20 years ago is now almost shut.

Mr. Oren is Israel’s ambassador to the United States.

Assad’s time is running out in SyriaIsrael News – Haaretz Israeli News source..

The defection of Syrian Prime Minister Riyad Hijab is the most significant of all those who have already deserted the Assad regime. It is a hard slap in the face to the president’s prestige and a win for the rebels, especially on a symbolic level.

Iran said to be upgrading fighter jets.

Arie Egozi

7/8/2012

Iran has begun upgrading its Mig-29 fighter jets in preparations of a possible strike, IsraelDefense learned Tuesday.

The Islamic Republic has about 80 Mig-29 jets, which it received from the former Soviet Union.

According to foreign media reports, the Iranian Migs are in “mediocre condition,” prompting Tehran to order serious upgrades, including the installation of advanced systems.

Several such electronic systems have already been installed on some of the jets.

The Iranian have attempted to improve several of their US-made F-14 jets, sold to them during the Shah’s regime, but were unsuccessful. Several changes have been made to their F-5 jets, but those, according to experts, are far from impressive.

Several top American officials have visited Israel over the past few weeks to discuss the Iranian nuclear threat.

According to media reports, the United States has a timeframe of 18 months until it gives a final decision regarding a strike. Washington believes that in that time period, Iran may reach “critical stage” after which it will able to build a nuclear bomb.

Israel has made it clear to the US that the diplomatic efforts and financial sanctions vis-à-vis Iran are failing and that the Islamic Republic remains defiant.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak stressed that Israel alone will make decisions regarding its security. It is these statements that are likely worrying Iran.

Iran’s Speaker in Beirut to bring Hizballah up to speed on Syria, Israel.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 7, 2012, 9:44 AM (GMT+02:00)

Khamenei’s emissary Ali Larijani on urgent mssion to Beirut

Monday, Aug. 6, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani had no sooner declared: “The fire that has been ignited in Syria will take the fearful (Israelis) with it,” than he was on a plane bound for Beirut for urgent on-the-spot coordination with Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
One of Iranian leader Ali Khamenei’s most trusted advisers, Larijani’s first action on arriving in the Lebanese capital was to pay homage at the tomb of Imad Moughniye, HIzballah’s late military commander. He said: “The resistance against Israel had many stars, but Moughniye was the moon.”
His movements were closely guarded by a bevy of Hizballah security forces and Al Qods Brigades heavies in civvies.
Since the dead arch-terrorist Moughniye spent his latter years devising innovative clandestine operations against Israel, including the kidnap of soldiers (His earlier years were marked by spectacular outrages against Americans), Israel clearly dominated his meeting with Nasrallah.
Nasrallah set the tone by his speech Monday marking iftar (the nightly meal breaking the Ramadan fast): “All Muslim sects do not accept the approach of slaughtering and killing over differences with each other. This is among the biggest threats our societies are facing and I say there are two threats: Israel and Takfiri, who [have the] minds of murderers.”
Neither therefore concealed the object of their concern. According to debkafile’s military sources, their discussion turned on military action against Israel in the context of the next stage ahead of the Syrian crisis.

That stage was already marked by the rumors circulating in Syria and Lebanon. They claimed that Bashar Assad had died in mysterious circumstances, and his wife Basma, children and close family, including his brother Gen. Maher Assad, were at Latakia port awaiting vessels or aircraft to lift them to safety.

debkafile’s sources say those rumors are without foundation. At the same time, the visible crumbling of the top Syrian leadership is making wild scenarios believable. Sunni figures who had cast in their lot with the Alawite-dominated Assad regime have begun heading for the exits, depriving it of a major prop.
Assad’s grip on power is further shaken by the spreading conviction among his enemies and friends alike that he and his family have made plans for their getaway and are bound to carry them out sooner or later.

The defections to Jordan of Riad Hijab Monday, two months after he was appointed Syrian prime minister, and three members of his cabinet, were not in themselves a direct blow to the regime. In Damascus, where the president reigns supreme, the prime minister is a technocrat rather than a political figure and easily replaced.  However, they did contribute dramatically to the general sense of a government cracking fast under the pressures of the revolt against Assad rule.
It must therefore be taken fore granted that Larijani and Nasrallah, both shrewd operators, will have realized their ally in Damascus is going down. Instead of lamenting his impending undoing, they will have got down to brass tacks for asserting their command and control after his departure – before it is too late. Military plans for Israel are no doubt part of their schemes.