WarSclerotic

Explosions Shake Damascus in New Fighting – WSJ.com.

( “Pilgrims” my ass!  Some of the 3K snipers sent by Iran to Damascus. – JW )

Associated Press

BEIRUT—Heavy explosions shook the Syrian capital Saturday and helicopters circled overhead as rebels appeared to be renewing their offensive in the city, witnesses and activists said.

The fresh battles show that President Bashar Assad’s victories could be fleeting as armed opposition groups regroup and resurge, possibly forcing the regime to shuffle military units to react to attacks across the country. The country’s civil war has intensified in recent weeks as rebels focused on the country’s two biggest cities, Damascus and Aleppo.

“We heard heavy bombing since dawn,” a witness in Damascus told the Associated Press, asking that his name not be used out of fear for his personal safety. “Helicopters are in the sky.”

Saturday’s violence comes only two weeks after the government crushed a rebel run on Damascus that included incursions by fighters into downtown neighborhoods and an audacious bomb attack that killed four members of Assad’s inner circle.

Separately, Iranian state television reported gunmen snatched a bus filled with 48 Iranian pilgrims from a Damascus suburb Saturday as they headed to visit a shrine holy to Shiites.

The abduction was the largest single kidnapping of Iranians in Syria, where several smaller groups of Iranians have been snatched in recent months. It came as regime forces were pounding the neighborhood of Tadamon, on the southern outskirts of the Damascus, trying to uproot one of the last rebel-held areas in the city.

The pilgrims had just left their hotel on Saturday and were headed by bus to the Sayeda Zeinab mosque, a holy shrine for Shiite Muslims in a suburb south of the capital, when they were taken, Iran’s Arabic language, state-owned TV station Al-Alam said, citing an official at the Iranian embassy in Damascus.

Iran’s English-language state station, Press TV, blamed “terrorists” for the abduction, echoing language used by the Syrian regime to describe the rebels in has been battling for the past 17 months in an uprising that has claimed 19,000 lives.

Mainly Shiite Iran is a close ally to the Syrian regime, which is dominated by the Alawites, an offshoot of Shiite Islam. Iranians have been targeted several times by gunmen from the Sunni-dominated opposition.

Saturday’s fighting in Damascus appeared likely to drain the army’s resources as fighting stretches into its second week in Aleppo, 350 kilometers (215 miles) to the north.

Late Friday, Syria’s official news agency SANA said government forces had hunted down the remnants of the “terrorist mercenaries” — its term for the rebels — in the capital’s southern neighborhood of Tadamon. It said several were killed and many others wounded.

Syria’s uprising began in March 2011 with mostly peaceful protests against the regime, but the conflict has transformed into a civil war. Activists say 19,000 people have been killed.

As the fighting grinds on, Syria reached out to its powerful ally Russia on Friday. Senior Syrian officials pleaded with Moscow for financial loans and supplies of oil products—an indication that international sanctions are squeezing Assad’s regime.

Syria is thought to be burning quickly through the $17 billion in foreign reserves that the government was believed to have at the start of Assad’s crackdown.

Deputy Prime Minister Qadri Jamil, who has led a delegation of several Cabinet ministers to Moscow over the past few days, told reporters Friday that they requested a Russian loan to replenish Syria’s hard currency reserves, which have been depleted by a U.S. and European Union embargo on Syrian exports.

Russia has protected Syria from U.N. sanctions and continued to supply it with weapons throughout the conflict. The Kremlin, backed by fellow veto-wielding U.N. Security Council member China, has blocked any plans that would call on Assad to step down.

On Saturday, China said the West that should be blamed for obstructing diplomatic and political efforts to restore order and peace in Syria.

Wang Kejian, a deputy director of North African and west Asian affairs at the Chinese Foreign Ministry, told a news conference that Western countries had hindered and sabotaged the political process by advocating regime change.

Mr. Wang reiterated China’s stance that the solution to the Syria crisis should be a political one and that it is opposed to any military intervention.

Turkey also reported the defection of another Syrian general, along with five colonels, who came over the border with a group of refugees. The general would be the 29th to defect since the start of the uprising. Despite the defections, however, the Syrian army has largely remained intact since the uprising.

Syrian fighter jets strike Aleppo, Assad rides crest of disintegrating country.

DEBKAfile Special Report August 4, 2012, 4:04 PM (GMT+02:00)

Syrian MiG bomber-fighters hit Aleppo

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon was voicing the general consensus when he said Friday, Aug. 3, “The conflict in Syria is a test of everything this organization stands for.” He stopped short of giving the UN a failed mark. “World powers must overcome their rivalries to end the proxy war in Syria dividing the country into parts, in which different militias fight each other,” he said,

Nonetheless, the resolution approved by the general assembly roundly condemned the Assad regime and rapped the Security Council – but had no teeth.
Ban was speaking of a future danger. debkafile reports it is already happening. Day by day, new militias spring up to fight the Assad regime – five in the last 48 hours. They fall into three main categories: they represent one Syrian ethnic minority or another, Islamists streaming in from across the Middle East, or rebels groups armed and backed by Arab and Muslim intelligence bodies.

Common to them all is contempt for the mainstream Free Syrian Army which insists it is the umbrella organization for the entire rebel movement.
The biggest new paramilitary group rising from Syria’s war-torn landscape is the Kurdish coalition formed by the Syrian Democratic Union Party and elements of the Turkish PKK, which continue to arrive from Iraq and are taking up position on the Syrian-Turkish border. Kurdish fighters are occupying one northern Syrian town and village after another, laying the foundation for an independent Syrian Kurdish state which plans to link up with the Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq.
The merger of Syrian and Turkish Kurdish militias with the Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga would produce a Kurdish army of 225,000 fighting men.
Terrified that the separatism sweeping its brothers will infect the Turkish Kurdish minority – and suspecting Washington of surreptitiously supporting it – Turkish intelligence, the MIT, was instructed to establish and arm two Turkmen militias in the Syrian Kurdish region: Brigades of Mehmet the Conqueror and Brigades of Sultan Abdulhamid.

In Aleppo, the FSA has been displaced at the head of the campaign against government troops by a militia established by the Muslim Brotherhood and a rival set up by radical affiliates of al Qaeda, which is a hodgepodge of jihadists from Libya, the Gaza Strip, and Egyptian Sinai. Saudi and Qatari intelligence services are competing for the favors of these militias by supplying them with arms.
American intelligence analysts keeping watch on Syria warned Saturday, Aug. 4, that if the proliferation of fighting militias taking part in the conflict goes on, Syria will soon have more than a hundred mini-armies, some of them Christian and Druze. In no time they will be fighting each other.
American and European military sources explain their reluctance to provide the Syrian rebel movement with heavy anti-tank and anti-air weapons capable of tipping the scales of the fighting in Aleppo by their uncertainty about whose hands they will end up in.
Saturday saw the state of battle in Aleppo undecided. In an attempt to break the tie, Assad sent MiG fighter-bombers to bomb rebel positions in the northern sector of the city. He hopes to recover control of Aleppo well before external powers reach a decision on supplying the rebels with heavy arms.

In Damascus, Syrian troops backed by dozens of tanks and armored vehicles Friday night stormed Damascus’ southern district of Tadamon, the last rebel bastion in the capital. Activists reported that troop were conducting house to house raids and had executed at least 12 people.

Rebels: Iranian combatants in Syria to aid Assad – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Syrian rebel leader says over 3,000 Iranian snipers have arrived in Damascus to join the Syrian regime’s ranks; army no longer trusts local troops, he claims

Roi Kais

Over the past few weeks more than 3,000 Iranian snipers have arrived in Damascus to aid the forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad, Al-Arabiya reported, citing a leader of one of the rebel groups operating in the civil war-torn country.

The head of the Joint Military Council, one of the groups fighting to maintain control of the city of Aleppo, told the Dubai-based television network that the Syrian army no longer trusts its local troops, who are now considered potential defectors.

Meanwhile, a former Syrian soldier who defected from Assad’s ranks to join the rebels claimed that the embattled Syrian president is staying in an underground hideout located in a mountainous area behind his Damascus palace.

According to Khaled al-Hamoud, the building belongs to the president’s brother, Maher Assad, and his wife.

Syrian tank abandoned in Aleppo (Archive photo: AFP) 

“The Syrian leader’s entire family is there,” he told Asharq Alawsat. “We have the exact coordinates of the site, as well as other strategic sites, including chemical weapon caches.”

Tactical retreat

Clashes in Aleppo continued on Saturday, activists reported. According to Al-Arabiya, the Free Syrian Army (FSA), another rebel group, claimed it was in control of around 60% of Syria’s largest city.

The FSA also said it was able to seize control of buildings housing radio and television stations, but later had to retreat after the regime’s army helicopters shelled them.

Captain Hussam Abu Mohammed, who participated in the battles around the buildings, said that the army’s retreat was “tactical.”

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed rebel forces withdrew from the district of Izaa, where the state television building is situated.

“Rebel forces planted explosives there, and regime forces shelled the area,” the Britain-based Observatory reported. “The rebels then withdrew from the area.”

Witnesses also said heavy explosions have been heard since dawn in Damascus. Helicopters were seen circling the sky.

Syrian rebels appeared to be renewing an offensive in the capital only two weeks after the government crushed a rebel run on the city. The fresh battles Saturday show that Assad’s victories could be fleeting as armed opposition groups regroup and resurge.

Syria’s uprising began in March 2011 with mostly peaceful protests against the regime, but the conflict has transformed into a civil war. Activists estimate 19,000 people have been killed.

Iran: New version of ‘Conqueror’… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

Iran sending thousands of fighters to Syria, says rebel leader | The Times of Israel.

Syrian opposition forces shoot down government fighter jet, claims report

A Syrian revolutionary flag waves on top of a building on the outskirts of Aleppo. (photo credit: Khalil Hamra/AP)

Iran is sending thousands of fighters to help the Bashar Assad regime in it’s ongoing conflict with rebel forces, according to a Syrian opposition leader.

Col. Abdul-Jabbar Mohammed Aqidi, the commander of rebel forces in Aleppo province, was quoted in Al Arabiya on Saturday saying that 3,000 Iranians had already passed through Damascus International Airport in the last week.

In related news, Syrian rebels shot down a government fighter jet on Saturday morning, according to an Al Jazeera report from Aleppo. Opposition forces are claiming that they now control 60 percent of the city.

Information about the downed Syrian Air Force plane was not confirmed by any other sources.

Israel Radio reported that more than 140 people were killed in Syria on Friday, mostly in Aleppo. The commercial hub along with the capital, Damascus, have become the recent focal points for the Bashar Assad regime in its 17-month bloody crackdown on dissenters.

The UN General Assembly on Friday voted overwhelmingly in support of a resolution denouncing the ongoing violence in Syria. The version of the resolution that passed was a defanged draft, which left out earlier provisions calling for Assad to step down and calling on the international community to impose further sanctions.

Speaking of the situation in Aleppo ahead of the UN vote, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said, “The acts of brutality that are being reported may constitute crimes against humanity or war crimes… Such acts must be investigated and the perpetrators held to account.”

Ari Shavit’s Countdown: The quiet American option – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

Israel needs covert U.S. backing for any attack on Iran, warns this week’s interviewee, who remains unnamed.

The tall, quiet gentleman now sitting across from me in a Jerusalem cafe made a major contribution to Israel’s existence.

His name is hard to find in any archive. There is no Wikipedia entry under his name. And he certainly hasn’t made any appearances in the gossip columns or celebrity news coverage. But this bespectacled, soft-spoken, long-faced pensioner is one of the most incredible heroes in Israel’s history. He worked in a special place for 27 years, first as an engineer, then as chief engineer, and finally as director general.

With calm, cool intelligence, he modestly dealt with the most sensitive issues for the Jewish state. But this Jerusalem-born engineering genius was never after money or fame. He took the bus to the most important meetings at the most secret institutions. Even now, he is only willing to speak with me on condition that his name is not published. For he is not the issue. The issue is the issue. And the issue is a fateful one.

After sipping his coffee and nibbling at a pastry, the anonymous engineer tells me that the situation is quite serious, to say the least. “Iran’s nuclearization is unacceptable for three reasons. Firstly, a nuclear Iran will give Hezbollah and Hamas a nuclear umbrella that will embolden our enemies and encourage aggression, and lead to ongoing and intensive friction on Israel’s borders. Our lives will become a living hell.

“Secondly,” he adds, “a nuclear Iran could provide the terrorist organizations connected to it with dirty bombs that could contaminate extensive areas and water sources. This would be a disaster for Israel. Thirdly, a nuclear Iran would cause other states in the region to go nuclear and lead to an array of nuclear powers in the Middle East. This multipolar nuclear system will not be stable. It will create a new strategic situation that Israel will not be able to accept or live with.

“But on the other hand,” continues the anonymous engineer in a pensive tone, “Iran will soon go nuclear. From following the openly reported material, my professional estimation is that the Iranians are now less than a year away from the point of no return that will lead them to manufacture a first nuclear bomb. It’s very unlikely that the international sanctions will stop them within this period of time. It’s very unlikely that the cyber-warfare of which the Americans are so proud will stop them within this period of time. I don’t believe that an American president will order a strike on Iran just before or after an election.

“So the dilemma facing Israel in the short term is the dilemma that your column has focused on these past few months: [Iranian] bomb or [Israeli] bombing. And in grappling with this dilemma, the thing that tips the scale is the third point that I cited before: the danger of a nuclear Middle East.

“It’s possible that Israel can live with a nuclear Iran. In principle, it is possible. But can Israel exist with a number of nuclear superpowers in the Middle East? Can we exist within a multipolar nuclear system? I don’t think so. When I think about this scenario, I have a hard time sleeping at night.”

Devil in the details

So then, you agree with Yehezkel Dror, I say to this sage and sober Jerusalemite as he shares a sweet almond croissant with me. What you’re saying is that, in the cold, hard analysis, the conclusion is that Israel must strike Iran and simultaneously offer peace to the Arab world. “Prof. Dror’s proposal contains a lot of political wisdom,” says my interlocutor. “The main points of his analysis are correct. But the devil is in the details.

“In my view, Dror’s proposal contains a diplomatic flaw and an operational flaw. Diplomatically, it would be better to come out with a limited peace initiative toward the Palestinians, rather than a comprehensive peace proposal for all the Arab states that would open many Pandora’s boxes and bring Israel into a minefield. Operationally, you can’t forego cooperation with the Americans from the outset. The attack on the nuclear facilities in Iran will be fateful. If it succeeds it will significantly set back the manufacture of the Iranian nuclear bomb and also enhance Israel’s deterrent capability. If it fails, god forbid, the reverberations of the failure could be catastrophic.

“So we have a supreme obligation to ensure that the chances of success are maximal and the chances of failure are minimal. In my opinion, to do this we need secret assistance from the Americans. Even if it’s a blue-and-white operation, we need to ensure that red-white-and-blue capabilities will be integrated in it. Just as the Americans have assisted in the past with all sorts of operations with various allies without publicly admitting it, the same thing will have to happen here. The Israeli attack must be backed up by quiet American support and American high tech that will ensure its success.”

There is no chance that what you describe will happen, I say to this man who has had experience dealing with the American strategic establishment in highly sensitive situations. U.S. President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu despise each other. Obama’s America is an America that has had enough of wars. The Americans will not risk being exposed as having helped the Zionists attack an Islamic republic. The scenario you paint is quite creative and elegant, but purely fanciful.

“The mode of action I’m recommending may sound improbable,” says the anonymous engineer who has done an improbable thing or two in his lifetime. “But I’m trying to calmly analyze the dilemma facing President Obama. On the one hand, he truly does not want to see a nuclear Iran. He understands that if Iran goes nuclear, he will bear the responsibility for it. On his watch the Middle East will go nuclear and the international regime limiting the proliferation of nuclear weapons will collapse. On the other hand, he does not want to attack Iran because it goes against his personal inclinations and his outlook on the world. He also cannot attack in the coming year because America will not go to war without a mandate from the UN, which cannot be obtained within the short time that is left.

“The only way out of this tough dilemma is covert American aid to Israel so that it can carry out a successful strike on Iran – one that the Americans can then denounce. If you add to that an Israeli peace initiative with the Palestinians, then Obama profits in three ways: He prevents Iran from going nuclear; he does not have to attack Iran; and he gets the peace process that he yearns for. And Israel also profits three ways: It increases the odds that this critical attack will succeed; it enhances the image of its deterrent power; and it creates for itself a political horizon.

“A successful strike would do much to shore up Israel’s strategic situation in an unstable Middle East. So if the decision makers in Washington and Jerusalem are wise and careful, they should arrive at the conclusion that the blue-white-and-red option is the best choice. Hidden cooperation between the U.S. and Israel on this fateful matter will serve the vital interests of both, as well as the interests of the moderate forces in the Middle East and of the enlightened forces in the world.”

Joint mode of action

The life story of the anonymous engineer is the story of Israel’s old serving elite: modest childhood in Jerusalem; scholarship student at the Technion – Israel Institute of Technology in Haifa; doctorate in England. When the system took note of the rare talent of this outstanding academician, it made sure to sweep him up. Before long, it trained the electrical engineer to be a leader of its flagship project. In time, the tall, reticent character became a key pillar of the system. Eventually, the prime minister appointed him to head the system.

In wartime, he endured some very tense days. But all along the way, he believed in the combination of boldness and wisdom. As he still does. In his assessment, when it comes to Iran the balancing point between boldness and wisdom is finding a joint Israeli-American mode of action.

“One of the biggest problems with the world’s present leadership is that it doesn’t try to solve deep problems, but instead pushes them off,” says the anonymous engineer. “Which is how we’ve gotten to where we are with the Iranian issue. But there’s no point in crying over spilled milk now. Time is very short. The Iranians are about to cross the critical point.

“There is hardly any chance that the sanctions will work or the United States will take action within such a short time,” he continues. “But for the Israeli strike to be successful, it has to postpone Iran’s nuclearization by at least five years and it must be virtually immune to failure. Therefore, the rule of ‘For with wise advice thou shalt make thy war’ has to be adopted. The attack on Iran mustn’t be thought of as an expanded edition of the strike in Iraq in 1981. The risk must be reduced to the minimum.

“This critical operation must be a multistage operation in which the ones leading it have alternatives and guarantees in the event that the objective is not achieved with the first blow. For this, sophisticated American weaponry is required. For this to happen, the United States has to give us the weaponry, instruct us not to use it and condemn us after the fact for having used it.

“The possibility that an Israeli strike on Iran will fail disturbs me greatly. Even if the likelihood of failure is small, the implications of failure are very dramatic. Therefore the U.S. and Israel must rise above all their diplomatic disputes and personal tensions and work together. Only covert American support for the Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities will ensure its success and liberate us – and the world – from a nightmare.”

An Attack on Iran ‘Within Weeks or Months’ – Middle East – News – Israel National News.

Nuclear reactor (illustration)

Flash 90

Aharon Ze’evi-Farkash, former head of the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate, predicted on Friday that an Israeli attack on Iran could take place in the near future.

“It could happen within weeks or months,” Ze’evi-Farkash said in an interview with Channel 2 News.

“There is a need to stop Iran’s nuclear program,” he clarified, adding, “I do not know if Israel plans to attack soon, the prime minister said the issue has not yet been decided. But the way I understand the big picture, it seems it will happen soon.”

Ze’evi-Farkash also sided with other former senior defense officials, such as former Mossad chief Meir Dagan and former Shin Bet head Yuval Diskin, who have expressed their opposition to the move. Ze’evi-Farkash warned that an attack on Iran may cause significant damage to Israel, saying he believes Israel should prepare a plan for military action, but at least for now – not apply it in practice.

“We must take into account that at this time we should re-evaluate the picture that emerges regarding our ability to act, when required to do so,” he said, stressing that his remarks should not be seen as a call to remove the military option off the table.

“The Iranians need to understand that if they do not cease their efforts to become nuclear, the moment will come when they will have to absorb a blow – especially to their military bases,” said Ze’evi-Farkash, who predicted that in such a case the IDF will not operate alone. “The blow will be dealt by a coalition, an American one or even an Israeli one.”

The main message Ze’evi-Farkash wanted to convey was in regards to priorities he feels the Israeli political leadership should adopt.

“There are several options, only the last of which should be attacking,” he stressed. “We have to give the coalition that is pressuring Iran a chance to act and let things settle. Only if all of this will not work, there will be a need to take military action.”

He also noted the great importance, in the event of military action against Iran, of raising as broad a support as possible within the international community.

“If ultimately we have no choice we’ll have to make decisions according to the situation at the time,” said Ze’evi-Farkash. “The fact that a coalition putting pressure on Iran has been formed is a stunning achievement which should be given the chance to gain strength.”

Ze’evi-Farkash’s comments come after former Mossad chief Efraim Halevy indicated on Thursday that Israel is likely to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities in a matter of weeks.

“If I were an Iranian, I would be very fearful of the next 12 weeks,” he told the New York Times.

The commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Ali Jafari, admitted on Friday that the main threat to his country is the “soft war” being waged against it.

Jafari did not clarify exactly what he meant, but soft war is a term which usually describes steps such as sanctions, cyber warfare and espionage activities.

On Wednesday, the United States Congress passed a new package of sanctions against Iran. The sanctions aim to punish banks, insurance companies and shippers that help Tehran sell its oil.