WarSclerotic

Turkey’s army gathers on Syria border – Telegraph.

Iran Was the Focus of Russian President’s Trip to Israel | Jewish & Israel News Algemeiner.com.

Israel urged the visiting Russian president on Monday to step up pressure on Iran to curb its suspect nuclear program, but there was no sign of any concessions from Vladimir Putin.

With Russia an influential voice in the international debate over Iran, the outcome of the 24-hour visit could have deep implications for whether Israel decides to strike Tehran’s nuclear facilities or give the international community more time to find a diplomatic solution to the standoff.

Israel and Russia enjoy deep economic and cultural relations bolstered by the more than 1 million immigrants from the former Soviet Union who now live in the Jewish state. But they have deeply differing approaches to Iran’s nuclear program and the uprising in Tehran’s close ally Syria. Russia has blocked drastic action against the two countries, while Israel has repeatedly hinted it may act militarily to stop Iran’s nuclear program.

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Israel on Monday for his first official visit to the country since 2005. The purpose of the visit was to promote Russian-Israeli relations on economic, cultural and religious matters.

Upon arrival in Israel, Putin was greeted by Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman at the airport, before his scheduled appearance at a dedication ceremony for a monument in Netanya commemorating the Red Army’s victory over the Nazis.

In a brief statement after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Putin said their talks covered the situation in Iran and the bloody uprising in Syria, but added that he saw negotiations as the only solution for such matters.

Israeli President Shimon Peres and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet on Monday in Netanya, Israel. Photo: GPO.

Netanyahu countered with far more detail. “We agree that nuclear weapons in the hands of Iran pose a grave danger, first for Israel but also for the region and the whole world,” he said. “Two things need to be done now: We need to bolster the sanctions and bolster the demands.”

Netanyahu insisted that all uranium enrichment in Iran must cease and its underground nuclear facility near Qom be dismantled. He added that “the killing and horrible suffering of the Syrian people” must be stopped.

Putin had reiterated that he had no obligations towards Syrian President Bashar al-Assad but emphasized the connection to the Syrian people.

Israel sees Iran as its most dangerous enemy because it is convinced the country’s nuclear program is meant to build bombs and not for peaceful purposes such as energy production, as Iran insists. The fears are compounded by Tehran’s frequent calls for Israel’s destruction, support for anti-Israel militants and arsenal of ballistic missiles.

Israel has said repeatedly that it would not tolerate a nuclear Iran, and while saying it prefers a diplomatic solution has also hinted of using a military strike as a last resort. Israel itself is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons.

Iran is under four sets of Security Council sanctions because of its nuclear program. Israel has welcomed these but warned they are not enough. Efforts aimed at tougher UN sanctions have been opposed in the Security Council by Russia and China, both permanent veto-wielding members that have extensive financial interests in Iran.

Russia, for instance, has built a $1 billion nuclear reactor in Bushehr. But Moscow, bowing to U.S. and Israeli demands, has also scrapped a deal to sell Iran long-range missiles that could provide a powerful deterrent against a potential air attack.

Russia and China have joined world powers in a new set of low-level negotiations with Iran in July, after the last round yielded no breakthroughs.

Another Israeli concern is Syria. Russia has continued its arms sales to Damascus throughout the violent popular uprising against Assad. Israel is afraid Russian weapons in Syria will fall into the hands of allied Hezbollah militants in neighboring Lebanon, something Israel says happened during its 2006 war with the Lebanese group.

Putin began his official visit at a ceremony to inaugurate a Soviet Red Army memorial in the coastal city of Netanya, paying tribute to fallen soldiers of World War II that included tens of thousands of Jews.

“The memory of the fallen is sacred in my eyes. I am moved that you feel the same thing in Israel,” he said, facing the sculpture of a massive pair of wings on a wind-swept hilltop overlooking the Mediterranean Sea.

President Shimon Peres linked the past to the challenges of the present. “I am confident that Russia, which defeated fascism, will not allow similar threats today. Not the Iranian threat. And not the bloodshed in Syria,” he said at the ceremony.

At a state dinner later Monday, Peres pressed Putin further. “I ask of you again: Raise your voice against a nuclear Iran, against destroying a people. You know well the depth of sensitivity of the Jewish people when we are threatened with destruction,” he said.

Putin, however, warned against a possible attack on Iran. “We should think before we do things we later regret. … Look what happened to the U.S. in Afghanistan and Iraq. I told this to [U.S.] President Obama as well. It’s important not to jump the gun,” Putin said.

Putin responded that Russia has a “national interest” to secure peace and quiet in Israel but did not elaborate further.

The trip was Putin’s second in Israel, having last visited seven years ago. On Tuesday, he heads to the West Bank and Jordan.

The Russian leader came with an entourage of hundreds of officials and businesspeople, who will be exploring possible military, technology and energy deals between the two countries.

Putin said his visit stressed not only the friendly relations between the countries but also a “solid basis on which to build dialogue and partnership.” He said he spoke with Netanyahu about cooperation in science, technology, agriculture, medicine and culture.

“I have been very impressed by the things I have seen, and [this trip] strengthened the sense of pride I have for the Jewish people and the State of Israel,” Putin said. “Russia had an important role in defeating the Nazis, and the nation that went through the Holocaust remembers its executioners and its liberators.”

Officer: ‘We are Preparing for Possibility of War’ – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Brig. Gen. Heiman

Kobi Finkler

“We are in preparations for the possibility of war and in the midst of deployment with the situation in Syria in mind,” a top IDF officer said Thursday, in a tour of the northern border with journalists.

The greatest challenge facing Division 36, which is placed in the Golan, is the possibility of facing a surprise attack, said the officer, Brig. Gen. Tamir Heiman, Commander of Division 36. “The biggest concern is a combined terror attack and we are preparing for this in the Golan area.”

The essential changes that have taken place in Syria provide the potential for a terror attack coming out of Syria and crossing the border, which has been very quiet in recent years.

“The Division is preparing itself accordingly, in the knowledge that a terror attack can take place without a prior alert or intelligence,” he said. “The lack of governance and loss of stability, with terror organizations potentially looking for new goals – is the greatest threat for the region.”

Brig. Gen. Heiman said the IDF is investing heavily in improving infrastructures, means of detection and routine security missions along the border. “One of the places where a rapid deterioration can occur is the Golan Heights, in which topography makes it possible to easily approach the Israeli side of the border and we need to be prepared for this,” he warned.

IDF bolstering defenses along Syrian border – JPost – Defense.

By YAAKOV KATZ

06/28/2012 16:47

Fearing advanced Syrian weapons landing in rogue hands, IDF upgrading infrastructure along border; preparing areas to contain Syrian refugees who may flee crackdown.

Photo: Reuters

The IDF is bolstering defenses along the Syrian border and beefing up its forces due to concern that terrorist groups are planning a cross-border attack in the Golan Heights, commander of Division 36 Brig.-Gen. Tamir Hyman said on Thursday.

Hyman briefed reporters during a tour of borderline military positions throughout the Golan Heights. Division 36 is the IDF formation in command of the Golan and Israel’s border with Syria.

Related:

• ‘Israel persuaded Russia not to sell Syria missiles’
• Turkish military convoys head for Syrian border

“Our assumption is that a terror attack or a war can happen without warning,” Hyman said. “We are upgrading our infrastructure and renewing operational commands to prepare accordingly.”

Israel’s concerns range when it comes to Syria and includes the option that the country’s advanced weaponry – like Scud missiles and chemical weapons – will fall into rogue hands as well as the possibility that Global Jihad elements operating in the country will try to attack Israel along the border.

“The government’s loss of control and the instability is a convenient area of operations for Global Jihad elements in Syria,” Hyman said. “Even without signs that this is already happening, we need to be prepared. This is the main challenge.”

The IDF is concerned by a number of different types of attacks, including a cross-border infiltration into an Israeli town in the Golan, the potential abduction of a soldier or Israeli civilian as well as rocket fire into Israel from Syria.

The IDF is also preparing for the possibility that large numbers of Syrian citizens will rush the border to try and flee the Syrian military’s violent crackdown.

The IDF has prepared a number of areas along the border where it plans to contain the civilians in such a case and protect them from Syrian military forces if needed. The final decision, if to allow the refugees into Israel would be up to the government.

Saudi Arabia keeps oil tap on; Iran, Russia hurt – Israel Business, Ynetnews.

Saudi Arabia shows no sign of changing policy of high oil output that drives prices down, hurts Moscow and Tehran

Reuters

Saudi Arabia is showing no sign of changing its policy of high oil output to support global economic growth, despite a fall in crude prices this week below $90 a barrel for the first time in 18 months.

Gulf and Western government sources in contact with Saudi officials said the OPEC power can tolerate oil at $90 or below for months, price levels that hurt Iran and Russia as they face off against Riyadh over the conflict in Syria.

Saudi Arabia has a built up a revenue surplus in the first half of the year and requires a much lower oil price to balance its budget than most of its fellow OPEC members and leading non-OPEC producer Russia.

“If we keep producing at roughly the same rate, we’re not flooding the market,” said a senior oil official from a Gulf producer. “And we want to act responsibly for the sake of the world economy.”

Strong supporters of fellow Sunni Syrian rebels seeking to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Saudi leaders have criticized Russia for defending him.

With Iran, Russia is Syria’s main ally, providing most of its arms. Both Moscow and Tehran need crude at $115 a barrel to meet budget requirements.

Industry sources say Saudi Arabia, the only oil producer with significant spare capacity, looks set to trim output over the next two months, but only because demand from refineries in China and the United States will dip.

“We’re told the Saudis are OK with lower prices, $90 or below, for a few months,” said a Western diplomat. “Even if they have to trim back because of lower demand they don’t give us the impression they’ll be bailing out OPEC on price any time soon,” he said.

Crude is down from a March peak of $128 partly because the economic outlook has darkened but also because Saudi Arabia, pressed by major consumer countries, opened the taps in March to a 30-year high of 10 million bpd.

That has made up for a slump in output from Iran because of sanctions, not only drawing criticism from Tehran but others in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries who prefer higher prices including Algeria, Iraq and Venezuela.

Saudi readies oil line to counte… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

By REUTERS

06/28/2012 14:19

Iraqi Pipeline in Saudi Arabia bypasses Gulf shipping lanes, giving Riyadh scope to export more if its crude from Red Sea terminals.

Photo: REUTERS/Stringer Iran

DUBAI – Saudi Arabia has reopened an old oil pipeline built by Iraq to bypass Gulf shipping lanes, giving Riyadh scope to export more of its crude from Red Sea terminals should Iran try to block the Strait of Hormuz, industry sources say.

The Iraqi Pipeline in Saudi Arabia (IPSA), laid across the kingdom in the 1980s after oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf by both sides during the Iran-Iraq war, has not carried Iraqi crude since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990.

Saudi Arabia confiscated the pipeline in 2001 to compensate for debts owed by Baghdad and has used it to transport gas to power plants in the west of the country in the last few years.

Iran in January threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for US and European sanctions that target its oil revenues in a bid to stop Iran’s nuclear program.

A European Union ban on Iran’s oil starts on Sunday and Israel has threatened military action against Iranian nuclear facilities if Iranian talks with Western powers fail to stop uranium enrichment.

Alarmed, Saudi Arabia has now quietly reconditioned IPSA to carry crude, test pumping along the line over the last four to five months, several sources with knowledge of the project say.

“The testing started because Saudi Arabia wanted to secure alternative routes to export oil,” an industry source in Saudi Arabia said.

Western industry sources said the tests through the 1.65-million barrel-a-day line had delivered into storage facilities at Mu’ajjiz near Yanbu on the Red Sea for at least four months.

More than a third of the world’s seaborne oil exports pass through the narrow Strait of Hormuz from the oilfields of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Qatar’s liquefied natural gas exports are all shipped through Hormuz.

Parallel pipelines known as Petroline

Worried about its reliance on Gulf shipping, Saudi Arabia in 1992 increased its capacity to pump oil from oilfields predominantly clustered in the east across the country to the Red Sea to about 5 million barrels a day through two parallel pipelines known as the Petroline.

Saudi crude exports run as high as 8 million bpd but rising demand for its crude in Asia, shipped out of the Gulf, and falling demand from Europe, usually sourced from Red Sea ports, meant Petroline’s pumping capacity was never fully utilized.

The smaller Petroline pipeline was converted to carry natural gas from the east to booming industrial centers in the west a few years ago, slashing Saudi’s east-west crude transport capacity to Red Sea ports.

Saudi Red Sea industries are now reliant on gas fed from fields over 1,000 km away and the prospect of cutting them off to export crude through Petroline during a Gulf shipping blockade is not an attractive option.

Until recently the Saudi government had considered the risk of such a disruption in the Gulf too small and its western gas needs too great to switch Petroline fully back to oil.

But as tensions over Iran’s nuclear program ratcheted up, Riyadh decided to put IPSA on standby to transport more crude west in an emergency.

The United Arab Emirates has built its own Hormuz bypass pipeline, which is due to start exporting from the Gulf of Oman next month.

Israel Hayom | The voice of Iran.

Elliott Abrams is a senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. This piece is reprinted with permission and can be found on Abrams’ blog “Pressure Points” here.

Why is it significant that the vice president of Iran has used a United Nations forum to deliver an appalling anti-Semitic speech?

This happened Tuesday in Geneva, as The New York Times reported. Iran’s Vice President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi blamed “Zionists” for the world’s drug trade, citing the Talmud and leaving his audience at the anti-drug conference in shock.

This event is significant because it reminds us that the assumptions behind the nuclear negotiations with Iran are questionable at best. Those assumptions include mirror-imaging, the belief that Iran’s regime will make the sorts of “rational” calculations the governments of the EU and U.S. would make in their place. Impose sanctions on Iran, reduce its income from oil sales, harm its economy, and surely the Supreme Leader and his advisers will react as we would, weighing almost mathematically the costs and benefits of the nuclear program.

Then comes Mr. Rahimi, teaching us that math may not be the best way to predict Iranian policy decisions. How do we factor in irrational hatred of Jews? How do we weigh a deep desire to destroy the Jewish state? How do we calculate the effect of beliefs that seem to us in the West to be preposterous, ludicrous and impossible? Or a better question: How do Israelis make those judgments? As many historians — most recently, Andrew Roberts in “The Storm of War,” his superb history of the Second World War — have reminded us, lucid calculations are often absent, statesmanship is often pushed aside by ideological obsessions and hatred is often more powerful than rational calculations. Just because we think it is irrational for Iranian officials to make such speeches, or wreck their economy to pursue nuclear weapons, or threaten Israel, does not mean that such things are not happening and will not happen. Sitting around conference tables they may appear unlikely or impossible, but the Rahimi speech may be a better guide to Iranian foreign policy than the words spoken at those sessions.

Iran, Syria, And A Red Carpet: What Was Vladimir Putin Doing In Israel? | all – International Business Times.

June 28, 2012 5:49 AM EDT

“The major hope for Israel to accomplish in this visit was to try and change Russia’s mind,” she said. Not that it would have been easy: “I don’t think there is any chance of that,” said professor Golan, “but of course, they had to try.”

Indeed, the two sides couldn’t find a common position on the threat of a nuclear Iran. Netanyahu urged Russia to call for tougher sanctions on Iran and to demand that Tehran stop its nuclear enrichment program. Israel, the United States and a number of Western countries believe Iran is attempting to build nuclear weapons. (While Iran says its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes, Israel has threatened a military strike if Iran refuses to stop enriching uranium.)

Putin’s response was that he saw negotiations as the only solution, and that it was “unacceptable to think of mutual destruction” as would result from a nuclear conflict between Israel and Iran.

Progress wasn’t forthcoming on the other point of contention, Syria. Russia has supplied arms to the embattled Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, while Israel has called for him to step down.

Peres reiterated Netanyahu’s call to Putin to stop supplying the Syrian regime with weapons, and asked for Russian intervention with Damascus: “There exists a real danger that Syrian chemical weapons will reach the hands of Hezbollah and Al Qaeda – please act with urgency to stop that unacceptable situation,” he said.

Bur rather than stubborness, the Russian position is the product of a sound political calculation. Although Russia no longer wields the same influence the Soviet Union once did across the Middle East, it is still aspiring to be a power broker, said Jonathan Dekel Chen, a senior lecturer in the Department of Russian and Slavic Studies at Hebrew University.

This may explain the real political reason behind Putin’s visit to Israel and his efforts to persuade Israel not to attack Iran, as well as his unwillingness to accept regime change in Syria.

“Russia today is aspiring to re-emergence as an international power and it is interested in stability. [It] wants to do business and it is not in Russia’s interest that there be chaos in Russia’s former client states,” said Dekel Chen.

Golan noted that the Russian-Israeli couple is not alone: There is a third partner in the room, and that’s America. “The Russians are in a political competition with the United States, and one of the things that motivate the Russians is to maintain a relationship with Syria and Iran because that gives them a standing vis-a-vis the United States,” she said.

Their relationship isn’t new, either. Russia and Israel go back a long way – all the way to the birth of the Jewish state, in fact.

“The visit itself was never intended to be some watershed event,”  Dekel-Chen said. “It is a piece in a very long relationship that has taken many twists and turns, that needs to be seen in context both before and after the breakup of the Soviet Union.”

In 1947, Stalin’s Soviet Union, together with other Soviet-aligned or dominated countries, voted in favor of the United Nations Partition Plan for Palestine, setting in motion the creation of a Jewish state. And months later in 1948, three days after Israel declared its independence, the Soviet Union was the second country, after the United States, to officially recognize it.

But during the Cold War that followed, the Soviet Union wasn’t a friend of Israel at all. Paul Johnson and other historians argue that the infamous 1975 U.N. General Assembly Resolution that equated Zionism to racism was orchestrated by the U.S.S.R. But those were different times, and Israel was an American ally.

In the post-Cold War era, relations warmed between Israel and Russia. Since 1989, more than 1 million Soviet and then Russian Jews, who used to be barred from emigrating, have moved to Israel. Today they make up roughly 15 percent of Israel’s 7.8 million people, and have gained an important place in Israeli society.

“They left the Soviet Union having accomplished something with their lives, and they arrived here in white-collar professions and educations, and when they look back at the successor to the former Soviet Union, it is with a great deal with ambivalence,” said Dekel-Chen.

The ties between Russian Jews and their former homeland mean big business for both countries. Bilateral trade is considerable: In the first four months of this year, Israeli exports to Russia reached $384 million and imports from Russia $277 million, according to the Israel Export Institute. Additionally, about a half million tourists flock to Israel from the former Soviet countries every year, creating about 20,000 jobs and bringing revenues to Israel of $1 billion annually, according to Israel’s Ministry of Tourism.

And yet, many Russians living in Israel express cynicism on, and even disapproval of, Israel’s kind reception of Putin, mirroring perhaps some of the criticism voiced in Israeli news outlets.

“If Russia supports political leaders like [late Libyan dictator Moammar] Gadhafi and Assad, do you think Russia is really interested in the people of Israel?” asked Vladimir Milner, an Israeli who emigrated from Moscow to Israel 10 years ago when he was 17 years old and is now studying for a masters degree in Eastern European studies at Hebrew University.

Milner said he believed the elections in Russia that took place this past March were not democratic and that Putin exerted his power to catapult himself into a third term. “i think we have to be honest with ourselves, I think he is not a democratic leader and a leader of a non-democratic country,” he said.

But in foreign policy, necessity often trumps ideals. “For Israel, its very important to have good relations not only with America, especially now that relations with America are not so warm, unfortunately,” said Abba Taratuta, a Russian-born prominent member of the movement for emigration to Israel from Russia in the 1970s. He was referring to a perception among some Israelis that President Barack Obama has not been as supportive of the Jewish state as his predecessor George W. Bush.

That may or may not be true, but while they debate whether the White House is as close to them as it used to be, many Israelis realize that having a friend in the Kremlin, however unsavory he may be, beats having an enemy. “(Israelis) don’t have many friends in the world, and they just don’t have a choice. They need all the friends they can get,” Milner said.

Turkish troops, anti-aircraft guns stationed on Syrian border.

Thursday, 28 June 2012

Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has accused neighboring Syria of a “hostile act” and “heinous attack” in shooting down the army jet last week. (Reuters)

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After 3 Decades, IDF Prepares for Hostile Egypt – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Soldiers in Gaza

צילום: פלאש 90

The IDF is preparing for a “new era” on Israel’s southern border, which actually is a rewind of history back to the days before the Camp David Accords. With the rise of what appears to be a hostile regime in Egypt, the IDF will be beefing up forces all along the Sinai border, and is asking the government for NIS 15 billion ($3.8 billion) for the construction of bases, installation of security equipment, and establishment of new training areas.

Analysts said that the new situation in Egypt necessitates the opening of a “fourth front” for the IDF. For decades, security along the southern border has been more relaxed, because of the peace treaty between Israel and Egypt, and the IDF was able to concentrate on trouble spots like Gaza and the northern border, as well as “distance missions.” Egypt’s new President, Mohammed Morsi, who is identified with the Muslim Brotherhood, has said several times that he wishes to “reexamine” the Camp David Accords. Given his party’s open hostility to Israel and its strong support for Hamas, Israel has decided that it can no longer regard the Egyptian border as a “normal” one.

A senior IDF official told the Israeli daily Ma’ariv that while no one expects Egypt to abrogate the Camp David Accords, the new situation requires extreme caution. And thanks to three decades of American military aid and support, the Egyptian army today is extremely sophisticated, and is equipped with the latest equipment, making it, for all purposes, a Western-type army, the official said. Egypt also has the largest army in Africa; it has about 470,000 regular troops and some 480,000 reserve troops. The IDF, by way of comparison, has 180,000 active duty soldiers, and about 560,000 reserve troops.

The IDF will ask for the NIS 15 billion increase to be funded over a five year period. Without this money, officials said, it will be impossible to upgrade the IDF’s souther flank, making the country dependent on the graces of Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood. In a statement, an IDF official would not comment directly on the funding issue, saying that “as a matter of course the IDF is studying the changes in the region, and specifically in Egypt.”