WarSclerotic

Annan optimistic on Syria crisis talks, despite Assad’s dismissal.

Friday, 29 June 2012

International mediator Kofi Annan hopes for an acceptable result to the Syria crisis talks in Geneva on Saturday. (Reuters)

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Clinton arrives in Russia for Syria showdown | The Times of Israel.

US secretary of state to meet with her Russian counterpart ahead of weekend’s crucial talks in Geneva

June 29, 2012, 10:56 am 1

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton waves before boarding a plane in Riga, Latvia on Thursday. (photo credit: AP/Haraz N. Ghanbari)

ST. PETERSBURG, Russia (AP) — US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov were heading for a face-to-face showdown over Syria on Friday as major powers prepared for a weekend conference to hash out a political transition plan for the country.

On the eve of Saturday’s conference aimed at ending 16 months of brutal violence in Syria, Clinton and Lavrov were to meet in St. Petersburg in a bid to iron out deep differences over the transition plan being pushed by UN envoy Kofi Annan that calls for the formation of a national unity government that would oversee the drafting of a new constitution and elections.

US officials are adamant that the plan will not allow Syrian President Bashar Assad to remain in power at the top of the transitional government, but Russia insists that outsiders cannot dictate the ultimate solution or the composition of the interim administration.

Annan’s plan would allow some members of the current regime to stay in place but would exclude those deemed to be counterproductive or destructive to the transition process, which would be Syrian led, according to diplomats familiar with the proposal. It does not explicitly bar Assad, but the US and other western powers who will participate in the conference in Geneva say that is implicit.

The difference in interpretation could prove its unraveling and Clinton hopes to press Lavrov on the point at their meeting and over dinner following a gathering of Asia-Pacific foreign ministers that Lavrov is hosting in St. Petersburg.

On Thursday, Lavrov acknowledged that a transition period is necessary to end the violence in Syria, but said Russia had not agreed to all elements of Annan’s plan, in particular any suggestion that Assad would be required to leave.

“We are not supporting and will not support any external meddling,” Lavrov said. “External players must not dictate … to Syrians, but, first of all, must commit to influencing all the sides in Syria to stop the violence.”

He also said the Annan plan was still a work in progress.

But, Clinton, speaking Thursday in Riga, Latvia, said it was “very clear” that all participants in the Geneva meeting — including Russia — were on board with the transition plan. She told reporters that the invitations said made clear that representatives “were coming on the basis of (Annan’s) transition plan.”

She said she expects the meeting “to provide an opportunity to make real progress” on that plan.

Diplomatic hopes have rested on Russia — Syria’s most important ally, protector and supplier of arms — to agree to a plan that would end the Assad family dynasty, which has ruled Syria for more than four decades.

Israel Hayom | Turkey will not hesitate to avenge Assad’s aggression.

Israel Hayom | Today’s Air Force is deadlier than ever before, says IAF commander.

Top Iran official: U.S. threats of military attack against nuclear program are empty – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

Speaker of Iran’s parliament says Islamic Republic used to American threats to attack, adds ‘no one listens’ to Hillary Clinton’s comments concerning military actions.

By Haaretz and Natasha Mozgovaya

U.S. warnings of the possibility of a military strike against Iran are void, and only meant to undermine the stability of other nations, a senior Iranian official told the state-run television outlet Press TV on Thursday.

The comment by Iran’s parliamentary speaker came as diplomatic efforts to solve the decade-long stand-off altered at a round of talks between Iran and the West in Moscow this month, with Israel renewing threats to attack Iran if it fails to rein in its nuclear work.

Last week, American officials and experts urged U.S. President Barack Obama to take a tougher stance on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, with some advising the administration to provide Israel with the arms needed for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The missive included specific demands to be met by Tehran in case of a diplomatic solution to the nuclear standoff, saying that among “the absolute minimum steps it [Iran] must take immediately are shutting down the Fordo nuclear facility, freezing enrichment above 5 percent, and shipping all uranium enriched above five percent out of the country.”

At the hearing of the House Armed Services Committee titled “Addressing the Iranian Nuclear Challenge: Understanding the Military Option,” former Senator Charles Robb of the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) urged in his testimony that “the dual approach of diplomacy and sanctions simply have not proved to be enough. We need the third track, and that is credible and visible preparations for a military option.”

Speaking on the possibility of military action against Iran’s nuclear program, Iranian parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani discounted the possibility of U.S. action against the Islamic Republic, saying: “When George W. Bush was the U.S. president, Iran received information through different ways about their [Americans] intention to attack Iran.”

“But did they carry out any attack? Ninty-nine percent of U.S. threats have not been practical,” Larijani was cited as saying by Press TV.

Referring to statements concerning Iran’s nuclear program made by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the senior Iranian official said that “no one pays attention to them.”

“No one heeds the U.S. officials’ threats because they make such remarks to undermine countries,” he added.

On Tuesday, Iran urged the European Union to reconsider an embargo on Iranian oil thatcomes into effect on July 1, saying it wanted engagement and not confrontation with the bloc.

EU governments on Monday formally approved the embargo, dismissing calls by debt-ridden Greece for exemptions to help ease its economic crisis.

“We hope that the European Union looks into the matter with more rationality and wisdom because I think nobody benefits from confrontation,” Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi told journalists in Cyprus.

“The benefit lies in engagement, and I think they are on the wrong track.”
Salehi said he hoped that Cyprus, which takes over the rotating EU presidency on July 1, could help “mitigate and alleviate” obstacles in the relationship between Iran and the bloc.

There was no immediate comment from Cypriot authorities.

EU governments warned Iran on Monday that more pressure could be applied if it continued to defy demands for limits on its nuclear program, which they say is geared to developing weapons. The Islamic Republic says its nuclear activity is for electricity production and other peaceful ends only.

U.S. gives China exemption from Iran sanctions

Speaking of the issue of Iran sanctions on Thursday, Clinton a waiver for Singapore and China from economic restrictions on trade with Iran, bringing to 20 a number of countries that are exempt from punishment for importing Iranian oil.

In a phone briefing on Thursday, an Obama administration official said that China had reduced its Iranian oil imports by 25% between January to May this year. The waiver is subject to renewal every 180 days. In 2011, Iran’s crude oil exports in 2011 stood approximately on 2.5 million barrels per day, this year they have dropped to about 1.5 million barrels per day.

The administration official said that “the sanctions that the U.S. and its international partners have imposed on Iran are having a severe and growing impact – decisions by all the major importers of Iranian crude oil to significantly reduce their purchases will mean a sharp drop in Iran’s crude oil exports. This will cost Iran at least $8 billion in lost revenues each quarter, according to the IEA.”

He added that “sanctions against investments and the provision of goods and services for Iran’s oil and gas developmental activities have also had a significant impact – Iran’s inability to gain access to capital and technology has led to a steady decline in its oil production, which is devastating in the long run for an economy so dependent on oil revenues.”

Another official on the call said that “what we are seeing and continue to see increasingly as it moves forward is it become increasingly difficult for Iran to support the rial. And already since September, the Rial has lost 40 percent of its value. It’s going to become increasingly difficult for Iran to finance its trade”.

Commenting on the next round of talks with Iran in Istanbul, the official said that “this will be an opportunity to sit down at the expert level and review the various proposals that have been made. Our position, the United States together with the P5-plus-1, has been that the onus is on the Iranian government to demonstrate a sense of purpose, a seriousness in these discussions and to indicate that they are prepared to take concrete steps to come in line with their international obligations. They have yet to do so. Istanbul is another opportunity for Iran to move in the right direction.”

Syria death toll spirals: 170 killed in on… JPost – Middle East.

Photo: REUTERS

BEIRUT – Syrians in the besieged city of Douma wrapped mangled and bloodied corpses in white burial shrouds early on Friday, according to video posted online, after 190 people were killed in one of the deadliest days of Syria’s 16-month-old uprising.

Activists said more than 50 of those killed on Thursday died in Douma, about 15 km (9 miles) outside the capital Damascus.

Video published on YouTube showed rows of shrouded bodies lining what activists said was a street in Douma. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 41 people had died in the city, while other activists placed the toll at 59 or higher.

“Douma, the morning of June 29, 2012. This is the massacre committed against the people of Douma. God is our savior. Two whole families are here (among the dead) … God help us,” said the man filming the scene.

One man held up the limp body of a girl, her pink blouse drenched in blood.

“This is another massacre of the massacres by Assad and his secret police,” he said. “This is another massacre of the massacres by the international community, of all the great nations that have conspired against our people.”

Douma has been under siege for weeks by security forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Activists say rockets have been raining down on the city for days amid heavy fighting between rebels and government forces. Video showed homes whose roofs had caved in and clouds of dust rising from crumbling buildings.

An activist called Mohammed Doumany told Reuters by Skype that 22 people from a single family had been killed.

“Dozens of the victims are still waiting to be buried, as cities continue to be under fire,” said a statement from activists posted online. Many of the injured were in critical condition.

Syria’s revolt has grown bloodier in recent weeks.

Rebels, apparently getting access to heavier weapons that can be used against tanks, have inflicted higher losses on Assad’s forces.

The army has also intensified its onslaught, using helicopter gunships to attack rebels and laying siege to rebellious towns.

Opposition activists accuse the international community of inaction. Diplomacy has failed to produce an agreement between Western powers, who favor the opposition, and Russia, which has used its veto power at the United Nations Security Council to block Western and Sunni Arab moves to drive Assad from power.

Jerusalem Post – Breaking News.

GENEVA – International mediator Kofi Annan said on Friday he was “optimistic” that ministerial crisis talks on Syria being held on Saturday would produce an acceptable outcome.

“I think we are going to have a good meeting tomorrow (Saturday). I am optimistic,” Annan told Reuters TV in Geneva after Russia proposed changes to his plan for a national unity government. The talks would end “with an acceptable result,” he said.

His spokesman Ahmad Fawzi said: “The talks are on course and the preparatory meeting is going ahead this morning

Saudis forces mass on Jordanian, Iraqi borders. Turkey, Syria reinforce strength.

( This may actually be “the big one.” However no other source is going with the story.  Stay tuned… – JW )

DEBKAfile Special Report June 29, 2012, 11:02 AM (GMT+02:00)

Turkey deploys anti-aircraft guns

The Syrian crisis was Friday, June 29, on a knife edge between a Western-Arab-Turkish military offensive in the next 48 hours and a big power accord to ward it off.

debkafile’s military sources report heavy Saudi troop movements toward the Jordanian and Iraqi borders Thursday overnight and up until Friday morning, June 29, after King Abdullah put the Saudi military on high alert for joining an anti-Assad offensive in Syria. The Saudi units are poised with tanks, missiles, special forces and anti-air batteries to enter Jordan in two heads:
One will safeguard Jordan’s King Abdullah against potential Syrian or Iranian reprisals from Syria or Iraq.

The second will cut north through Jordan to enter southeastern Syriam, where a security zone will be established around the towns of Deraa, Deir al-Zour and Abu Kemal – all centers of the anti-Assad rebellion. The region is also the home terrain of the Shammar tribe, brethren of the Shammars of the Saudi Nejd province.
The Saudi units deployed on the Iraqi border are there to defend the kingdom against potential incursions by Iraqi Shiite militias crossing into the kingdom for reprisals. The Iraqi militias are well trained and armed and serve under officers of the Iranian Al-Qods Brigades, the Revolutionary Guards’ external arm.
Western Gulf sources report that Jordan too is on war alert.
Following the downing of a Turkish plane by Syria a week ago, Turkey continues to build up its Syrian border units with anti-aircraft guns, tanks and missiles towed by long convoys of trucks.

A Free Syria Army officer, Gen. Mustafa al-Sheikh, reported Friday that 170 Syrian army tanks of the 17th Mechanized Division were massed near the village of Musalmieh northeast of Aleppo, 30 km from the Turkish border.  He said they stood ready to attack any Turkish forces crossing into Syria.
As these war preparations advanced, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived in St. Petersburg Friday for crucial talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.  They meet the day before the new UN-sponsored Action Group convenes in Geneva to discuss UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan’s latest transition proposal for Syria. He hopes for a political settlement that will ward off military intervention.
Invited to the meeting are the five veto-wielding UN Security Council members plus Turkey and Arab League envoys from Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq.

Annan proposes forming a transitional national unity government in Damascus that includes the opposition and excludes unacceptable regime members.
It was widely reported Thursday that Russia had agreed to this formula, even though it entailed evicting Bashar Assad from power. However, Lavrov stepped in to correct the record, stressing in reference to the Annan proposal that Moscow would not lend its support to “any outside interference or imposition of recipes in Syria.”
This position is doubly aimed at the intensive military movements afoot around Syria.
Clinton and Lavrov are therefore expected to go at the Syrian issue hammer and tongs. The outcome of their meeting will not only determine the course of the Action Group’s discussions but, more importantly, whether the Western-Arab-Turkish alliance goes forward with its military operation against Syria.

US-Russian concurrence on a plan for Assad’s removal could avert the operation. The failure of their talks would spell a worsening of the Syrian crisis and precipitate Western-Arab military intervention, which according to military sources in the Gulf is scheduled for launch Saturday, June 30.

IDF bolstering defenses along Syrian border – JPost – Defense.

By YAAKOV KATZ

06/28/2012 16:47

Fearing advanced Syrian weapons landing in rogue hands, IDF upgrading border infrastructure, preparing for Syrian refugees.

Photo: YAAKOV KATZ

The army is beefing up its defenses along the Syrian border due to concerns that terrorists are planning an attack in the Golan Heights, OC Division 36 Brig.-Gen. Tamir Hyman said on Thursday.

Hyman briefed reporters during a tour of border military positions throughout the Golan Heights. Division 36 is tasked with defending the Golan and the border with Syria.

“Our assumption is that a terrorist attack or a war can happen without warning,” he said.

“We are upgrading our infrastructure and renewing operational commands to prepare accordingly.”

Israel’s concerns when it comes to Syria include the possibility that its advanced weaponry – such as Scud missiles and chemical weapons – will fall into rogue hands as well as the possibility that global jihad elements operating in the country will attack Israel.

“The government’s loss of control and the instability is a convenient area of operations for global jihad elements in Syria,” Hyman said. “Even without signs that this is already happening, we need to be prepared. This is the main challenge.”

The IDF is concerned about a number of types of potential attacks, including a cross-border infiltration into an Israeli community on the Golan, the abduction of a soldier or civilian, or rocket fire into Israel from Syria.

While there has been an increase in the presence of global jihad operatives in Syria, the IDF believes they are focused on toppling Bashar Assad’s regime, but that once that happens, they will shift their focus to attacking Israel, as their comrades in the Sinai Peninsula have been doing.

The army is also preparing for the possibility that large numbers of Syrians will rush the border to try to flee the regime’s bloody crackdown.

The IDF has prepared a number of areas along the border where it plans to contain the civilians in such a case, and protect them from Syrian military forces if needed. The government would decide whether to allow the refuge-seekers into Israel.

Analysis: Syria is the new Sinai – JPost – Defense.

By YAAKOV KATZ

06/29/2012 01:46

Civilian actions noted as another sign that Assad was losing control over his country.

Photo: YAAKOV KATZ

A few weeks ago, Syrian civilians broke into a UN peacekeeping post along the border with Israel.

The civilians came to steal supplies, but in Israel, the event – which would have been unheard of a year ago – was noted with extreme interest as another sign that President Bashar Assad was losing control over his country.

An even further sign is the increase in the number of land mines being dug up by Syrian civilians near the border and thrown into Israel. Since the beginning of the year, six mines have been thrown into the country, compared to two in 2011 and zero the year before.

All of this adds up to a dire assessment within the IDF Northern Command that Syria is on its way to becoming something of a “hybrid” state where Assad will continue to control some parts – particularly main metropolitan areas like Damascus and Aleppo – but will lose control over other parts like Hauran, an area in the southwest along the border with Israel.

For this reason, the IDF refrains from issuing straightforward predictions of when Assad will or might fall. Predictions like Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s, back in January, that Assad would fall “within weeks,” are dismissed as nonsense.

Instead, the IDF is focused on preparing for scenarios it believes could evolve over the coming months, with an eye on the increase in the presence of global jihad elements in Syria and their potential involvement in attacks against Israel.

The change for the IDF is significant.

One place where that change is apparent is along a section of the border in the central Golan Heights where for years the IDF had invested in creating obstacles to prevent Syrian tanks from crossing into the country.

Today, the military is creating obstacles aimed at preventing people from infiltrating the border, as part of an understanding that the new threat is one of guerrillas and terrorism.

This is a lesson from what has happened along one of the country’s other active fronts today – the Sinai, which also used to be under the control of a regime (Hosni Mubarak) but today is a lawless territory where terrorists appear to run free.

The downing of a Turkish fighter jet last week is an example of how complicated the situation is today in Syria.

On the one hand, the air defense systems are on high alert and at a relatively high professional level – one of the reasons the West is wary of military intervention. On the other hand, the military is facing massive defections, lack of intelligence and command-and-control problems in its battle against rebel forces.

According to Israeli estimates, around 12,000 soldiers and officers have already defected. While the number is significant, it is not enough to have a major impact on a military of nearly 400,000.

The military is also overworked. Officers in the Syrian army, for example, used to work 9-to-5 jobs with a two-hour break in the middle of the day. Nowadays, they are in operations around the clock, and many have not been home for several months.

The fighting between rebels and the military is not yet directly along the border with Israel, but it is not far, reaching places like Deraa – a mere 11 km. from Israel.

For the time being, the IDF does not believe that Assad’s forces will do something along the border to attack Israel. On the contrary – all indications are that Assad wants to keep the border quiet out of fear that a distraction will prevent him from quelling the rebels.

This was evident on Nakba Day in May, when Syrian military forces were seen stopping protesters from approaching the border. If Assad wanted to get Israel involved, he would have let them through. Another example occurred a few weeks ago, when he replaced a number of commanders along the border. Discipline was apparently down in some of the units, and new officers were brought in to tighten things up.