WarSclerotic

Jerusalem Post – Breaking News.

@High&Mighty (mohammedkayani) on Twitter.

@High&Mighty ‏@MohammedKayani

Saudi Forces on full mobilization after Turkish Pres tel call to King Abdulla of imminent strike on Syria. All leave canceled.

Four other sources from Saudi Arabia report forces on the move.

Could be bull, but too many reports now to ignore….

Syria: We thought downed Turkish plane was Israeli – Israel News, Ynetnews.

 (The best possible excuse.  “Sorry.  We thought it was Jews.  You would have done the same.” – JW)

Information minister says Syrian forces may have mistaken Turkish jet they shot down for Israeli plane. Adds: We don’t want crisis

Associated Press

A Syrian minister is quoted as saying his country’s forces may have mistaken the Turkish plane they shot down for an Israeli one.

Syrian Information Minister Omran al-Zoebi was quoted as telling Turkish news channel A Haber in a telephone interview Wednesday that his country did “not want a crisis between Turkey and Syria.”

Turkish jet’s flight path (Photo: EPA) 

Al-Zoebi said Turkish and Israeli fighter jets were mostly US-made, which may have led the Syrian forces to mistake it for an Israeli jet.

Turkey warned Syria on Tuesday to keep its troops away from the countries’ troubled border or risk an armed response, an angry reply to the downing of the Turkish reconnaissance plane last week.

Syrian news outlets quoted a military expert as saying that the anti-aircraft weapons used to down the Turkish fighter jet last weekend were made in Iran, Al-Quds al-Arabi reported Wednesday.

According to the Arabic newspaper, the Syrian expert said Damascus purchased an Iranian-made anti-aircraft gun two years ago. He said the gun can be mounted on armored vehicles.

The expert said the downed Turkish jet flew at a low altitude so as not to be detected by the Syrian radar. However, the expert said, the Turkish crew was not aware that the Syrian air force was in possession of a weapon capable of intercepting planes flying at such a low altitude.

.:Middle East Online::’No’ exceptions to EU’s July 1 oil sanctions on Iran:..

Iran says new nuclear road map to be prepared in Istanbul – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

Last round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and 5+1 group in Moscow ended without any results.

By DPA | Jun.27, 2012 | 5:09 PM | 7

Iran’s heavy water nuclear facilities near the central city of Arak. Photo by AP /ISNA,Hamid Foroutan

Iran said Wednesday that a new road map will be prepared next week in Istanbul for ongoing nuclear talks between it and a group of leading world powers, the official news agency IRNA reported.

“Experts from both sides will meet (on Tuesday) in Istanbul for discussing and preparing a new road map for the nuclear talks” IRNA quoted Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi as saying.

The last round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the so-called 5+1 group – Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States – were convened last week in Moscow, but again ended without any results.

The two sides only agreed to meet at working group level in Istanbul on July 3. However, the exact formation of the groups and the agenda both remain unclear.

“There are some legal and technical issues on the agenda and I am optimistic, although we must be patient, as it might take some time,” Salehi said during a visit to Kazakhstan.

All nuclear negotiations in recent years between Iran and the 5+1 group have failed to make headway. Neither side has given any indication since Moscow that there might be the prospect for further talks.

Russian media reports: S-300 sale to Syria can… JPost – Defense.

By YAAKOV KATZ

06/27/2012 19:09

In what could be a possible outcome of Putin’s visit to Israel, Russian paper ‘Vedomisti’ says Russia chose to withhold sale estimated at about $100 million; deal reportedly signed between Russia, Syria in 2011.

Photo: Marc Israel Sellem

Russia has suspended the sale of the advanced S-300 surface-to-air missile system to Syria, a Russian daily reported on Wednesday, in what could be a possible outcome of President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Israel earlier this week.

The Vedomisti business paper reported that Russia chose to withhold the sale, estimated at about $100 million. The deal, previously unknown, was reportedly signed between Almaz-Antey – Russia’s top defense contractor – and Syria in 2011.

One of the most advanced multi-target anti-aircraft missile systems in the world, the S-300 has a reported ability to track up to 100 targets simultaneously while engaging up to 12 at the same time.

Russia signed a similar deal to sell the S-300 to Iran in 2007 but cancelled it in 2010 due to United Nations arms embargo that had been imposed on the Islamic Republic.

In recent years, Israel has invested significant diplomatic clout in convincing Moscow to suspend the delivery to Iran and a 2010 deal to sell Russia Israeli-made drones was reportedly done to stop the delivery.

While Syria might not have the S-300, it has spent the past few years upgrading its air defense capabilities and is believed to have spent $3 billion on advanced Russian systems such as the SA-15, SA-17 and SA-22.

As a result, the Israel Air Force has modified the way it flies in the North and particularly when conducting missions over Lebanon, where it continues to fly to gather intelligence on Hezbollah activities.

Deputy IDF Chief of Staff Maj.-Gen. Yair Naveh recently revealed that in the first few hours of a war with Syria, the IAF would need to work to neutralize the systems before conducting other operations.

“These have already been transferred to the Syrians and may one day be transferred from Syria to Hezbollah,” Naveh said. “The existence of these systems creates a reality in which the IAF will need several hours to first deal with the air defense systems before turning to other missions.”

Iran threatens to close strait if new sanctions begin | The Daily Caller.

With the failure of negotiations between Iran and six world powers last week, the Islamic regime now says it has the right, under international law, to close the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker traffic should an embargo on Iran’s oil go into effect July 1.

The third round of talks between Iran and the United States, Britain, France, China, Russia and Germany ended in Moscow without any agreement on Iran’s illicit nuclear program. Iran continues to insist that the only way out of the impasse would be for the West to accept its nuclear program.

Hossein Shariatmadari, the chief editor of the Iranian Keyhan newspaper, which is directly under the supervision of the supreme leader, warned in a commentary on Saturday that not only will Iran not back down on what it sees as its right to become a nuclear power but that it has the ability to stop oil tanker passage through the strait should new sanctions take effect.

“The enemy needs the negotiations just for the sake of negotiation as it knows that all its military threats are a bluff,” Shariatmadari wrote. “One thing is clear today: America and its allies, especially the fake government of Israel, are surely weaker and more despised than ever to even consider such stupid action.”

Many within the Islamic regime believe that due to the deteriorating economic climates in Europe and America, and especially with President Obama facing re-election, the West will do everything it can to avoid military confrontation with Iran.

“But the other option that America has used in facing defeat in the negotiations is sanctions,” Shariatmadari said. “Iran has so far faced 161 sanctions, but despite that, its economy is in better shape than those in America and Europe.”

Shariatmadari cited a statement by the U.S. Treasury secretary that in today’s free market, controlling almost $200 billion in trade with Iran and securing the participation of all American and European companies in sanctions would be a difficult task.

“It is noteworthy that should the oil embargo on Iran by the European Union take effect on July 1^st, then the Islamic Iran has the right to retaliation as the waters of the Strait of Hormuz are located within Iranian territory,” Shariatmadari said. “According to the Geneva 1958 Convention and the Jamaica 1982 Convention, which touches on the legality of the international waterways, Iran can close down the Strait of Hormuz to all oil tankers and even other commercial vessels if it is barred from selling oil.”

The conventions allow passage of all vessels so long as the security of any country is not threatened. With these new sanctions, Iran would consider its security threatened.

Meanwhile, the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, emboldened by praise of the Iranian media for not giving in to the world demands, called America and Israel the “murderous enemies” and promised their defeat.

“The greatness of Iran’s Islamic nation is due to its action based on the holy Quran,” Khamenei said Sunday in a speech to the participants of the 29^th International Quran Competition, according to Fars News Agency, the media outlet run by the Revolutionary Guard. “The Islamic nations must realize that if they have faith and believe the promises of Allah and have patience on the path of Quran and Islam, they will be victorious over the most complicated armies and over all economic, political conspiracies.”

Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for a former CIA operative in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and the author of the award winning book “A Time to Betray.” He is a senior Fellow with EMPact America, a member of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and teaches at the U.S. Department of Defense’s Joint Counterintelligence Training Academy (JCITA).

U.S. beefs up Persian Gulf forces.

by Staff Writers
Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UPI) Jun 26, 2012

disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only

In the wake of Iran’s refusal to rein in its contentious nuclear program at talks in Moscow, the U.S. military buildup in the Persian Gulf is gathering pace, with four more Navy mine countermeasures ships arriving at the weekend.

The Avenger class vessels out of San Diego will join eight U.S. and British navy mine hunters deployed in the region.

Their main mission will be to keep open the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the only way in and out of the gulf, if the Iranians carry through on a threat to close the vital energy artery through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies pass every day.

Iran is reported to have in excess of 2,000 sea mines, including advanced Russian weapons, that could be used to block the narrow, 112-mile strait.

These could be used in conjunction with Chinese-designed anti-ship missiles and swarm attacks by fleets of armed speedboats manned by naval forces of the elite Revolutionary Guards Corps.

The additional MCM vessels — the USS Sentry, Devastator, Warrior and Pioneer — will be based at Manama, capital of the island kingdom of Bahrain and headquarters of the U.S. 5th Fleet.

These slow-moving 1,379-ton ships, all transported to the gulf aboard heavy-lift vessels, will join their forward-deployed sister ships Scout, Gladiator, Ardent and Dextrous, and the British MCM contingent.

The Navy has two aircraft carrier battle groups, headed by the USS Enterprise and the USS Abraham Lincoln, deployed in the gulf and the Arabian Sea. These can put up a powerful force of more than 100 F/A-18 Hornet and Super Hornet strike jets, backed by early warning radar and surveillance aircraft.

The French navy’s carrier Charles de Gaulle, carrying multirole Dassault Rafale jets, is also in the region.

Meantime, the USS Ponce, an amphibious transport ship now configured to operate as a mother ship for U.S. Special Forces using helicopters and small patrol boats, was reported transiting the Suez Canal en route to Manama.

It’s expected to arrive in Bahrain early in July, which could be a critical period in the long-simmering confrontation between the United States, and its gulf allies led by Saudi Arabia, and Iran.

The European Union has said it plans to initiate an oil boycott against Iran July 1, a move that’s expected to tighten the noose around the Islamic Republic’s vital oil exports. Those have slumped because of sanctions imposed by the United States that aim to block the financial deals that set up the oil exports.

As the sanctions bite ever deeper into Iran’s shaky economy, the clerical regime in Tehran can be expected to seek to retaliate.

Amid expectations that tensions will rise in the region, which contains around 43 percent of the world’s oil and vast amounts of its natural gas as well, the Americans appear to be bracing for trouble.

The Navy is reported to have ordered 200 more Tomahawk cruise missiles for its surface ships and nuclear submarines. The Navy has more than 3,000 Tomahawks, which can be used against strategic land targets in Iran, deployed on warships or in storage.

Navy warships and submarines have fired more than 2,000 Tomahawks in combat, from the 1990-91 Gulf War through the Libyan war in 2011.

The current variant, the 1.2-ton RGM-109E Block 4 land attack missile deployed in the gulf, has a range of around 1,000 miles. It can fly at an altitude of 50-100 feet, making it difficult to detect, and has been upgraded to hit moving targets, particularly other ships.

In recent weeks, the U.S. Air Force has deployed an unspecified number of state-of-the-art Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor fighters, the most advanced operational fighter in the world.

These are believed to be deployed at Al-Dhafra airbase near Abu Dhabi, capital of the United Arab Emirates, a longtime Arab ally.

It has built an aerial strike force in recent years that is aimed at conducting offensive operations against Iran if hostilities break out.

The Air Force has also deployed 20 upgraded Boeing F-15C Eagles of the 104th Fighter Wing of the Massachusetts Air National Guard in the region.

Its location hasn’t been announced, but it’s probably al-Dhafra or the big U.S. airbase at Al-Udeid in the emirate of Qatar, which houses the U.S. Central Command’s forward headquarters.

The Incredible Shrinking US-Israel Security Cooperation | New Middle East News.

If the Administration had wanted to make the point the Israel is a valued partner in counterterrorism activities, it could have insisted that Israel be there or else moved the meeting.

In light of increased sensitivity to intelligence leaks, it seemed innocuous – or even admirable – when the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the Senate to remove a few words from the US-Israel Enhanced Security Cooperation Act: the “sense of the Senate” part of the bill included the sentence, “Expand already close intelligence cooperation, including satellite intelligence, with the Government of Israel;” ODNI wanted the words “including satellite intelligence” to go.

An ODNI spokesman said it was “simply a matter of clarifying the intelligence aspects of the bill and being sensitive to the level of specificity of the language…nothing nefarious here, just more clear language.”

Yeah, right.

This is just the latest example of the Obama Administration making clear that it does not want to be seen as Israel’s partner in regional affairs – several of them predicated on Turkish desires. Despite Israel’s status as a Major Non-NATO ally, a NATO “partner” country, and a member of NATO’s Mediterranean Dialogue, Turkey is increasingly insistent that Israel be isolated and cut out. This surrender to Turkey — which Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has for years been aggressively making ever more fundamentalist — coincides nicely with the Administration’s increasingly open courtship of Turkey’s Islamist-leaning and virulently anti-Israel Prime Minister and what appears to be the desire of the Administration to enhance security relations in the Arab-Muslim world as it dials back visible cooperation with Israel.

This is no small matter. Israel’s security is threatened — above all by the refusal of the Arab States to accept that it is a legitimate, permanent part of the region in which it lives. For the U.S. or Turkey — formerly a partner in regional security – to distance themselves from Israeli security is to raise hopes among enemies that they will ultimately be able to threaten Israel without fear of a U.S. or NATO-allied response.

Turkey bluntly objects to sharing intelligence information with Israel – specifically the intelligence from NATO’s Turkey-based, U.S.-run X-Band early warning radars. At a NATO meeting in Brussels, Turkish Defense Minister Ismet Yilmaz told reporters, “We need to trust states’ words. This is a NATO facility and it shouldn’t be used beyond the scope of this purpose.” The “state” in question was clearly the U.S., and “beyond the scope” referred to sharing information with Israel. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta replied, “Clearly, the NATO members are the ones that will participate in the program and access information produced by the missile defense system.” In a meeting in February, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen parroted the Turkish formula. “We do stress that data within this missile defense system are not shared with a third country. Data are shared within our alliance, among allies, it is a defensive system to protect the populations of NATO allies,” Rasmussen said.

Agreeing publicly to keep intelligence information from Israel – a more likely target of Iran than Europe/NATO – at the behest of Turkey is a serious diminution of the U.S.-Israel security relationship as well as the Israel-NATO relationship, and elevates Turkey to the role of spoiler.

According to one source, Turkey assured Iran that the X-Band radars were not aimed at the Islamic Republic and that a Turkish military officer was in charge of receiving the intelligence information. Here the U.S. appears to have balked, telling Israel that Americans were in charge of the information, but not reassuring Israel on the subject of information sharing. Further, since the station in Turkey also acquires information from the X-Band radar based in Israel, it raises Israeli concerns that Turkey will have access to security information from Israeli skies.

Turkey also demanded the exclusion of Israel from Anatolian Eagle, a NATO exercise conducted every few years to enhance aerial cooperation. The Turkish decision caused Italy and the U.S. to pull out, and the exercise was canceled – “postponed,” according to US sources as was the planned U.S.-Israel missile defense exercise, Austere Challenge, which would have had a strong intelligence-sharing component.

NATO’s snub of Israel at the meeting in Chicago in May was simply waved away: “Israel is neither a participant in ISAF nor in KFOR (Afghanistan and Kosovo missions),” said Rasmussen, even as he acknowledged that 13 other “partner” nations would attend because, “In today’s world security challenges know no borders, and no country or alliance can deal with most of them on their own.”

It was said then that Turkey used its NATO veto. But Israel was similarly not invited to the inaugural meeting of the Global Counterterrorism Forum in Istanbul — not a NATO meeting.

Coming on the heels of Eager Lion 2012, a Special Operations exercise involving 12,000 troops from 19 countries (excluding Israel and including several countries at war with Israel), the counterterrorism forum was designed by Secretary of State Clinton to “build the international architecture for dealing with 21st century terrorism.” The State Department was responsible for the invitations, so Turkey had no veto. If the Administration had wanted to make the point that Israel is a valued partner in counterterrorism activities, it could have insisted that Israel be there or else moved the meeting.

Perhaps as compensation, a U.S. delegation visited Israel separately. But private bilateral meetings are no substitute for leading by example so that other countries – particularly in the Middle East, North Africa and Southwest Asia – understand that the United States sees Israel as a legitimate partner in solving regional problems, including terrorism, and that U.S.-Israel security cooperation is a priority of the American government.

Turkey is riding high with the Administration right now; and President Obama welcomed the Turkish Prime Minister in March as an “outstanding partner and an outstanding friend on a wide range of issues” — including, apparently, in reducing relations with Israel.

ODNI’s determination to remove language about satellite intelligence from the Senate bill was most likely intended to ensure that the State Department and Pentagon were not caught between the Senate’s interest in keeping U.S.-Israel security relations strong, and Turkey’s interest in wedging Israel out of its place as an American security partner.

What an odd place for a U.S. intelligence agency to find itself. What an odd place for the Administration to find its intelligence agency — or what an odd place to put it.

Shoshana Bryen is Senior Director of The Jewish Policy Center. She was previously Senior Director for Security Policy at JINSA and author of JINSA Reports from 1995-2011.

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3133/us-israel-security-cooperation

TODAYonline | World | Obsession with Iran obscures the bigger threat.

It is funny what people choose to worry about. The West is obsessed with stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons. By contrast, Pakistan’s nuclear programme is not much discussed. And yet, by any sensible measure, Pakistani nukes are much more worrying.

Start with the obvious: Pakistan already has nuclear weapons – probably more than 100 of them – and is thought to be increasing production. Iran has still to assemble a single nuclear weapon.

The prospect of an Iranian bomb is said to be unthinkably dangerous because of the country’s connections to terrorist groups, its hostility to the West and Israel, the risk it will spread nuclear technology and the prospect of a regional arms race. And yet, almost all these considerations apply even more forcibly to Pakistan.

Pakistan supplied nuclear technology to North Korea, Libya and Iran itself.

It came dangerously close to nuclear conflict with India in 1999. As for terrorism, Osama bin Laden was actually living on Pakistani soil for many years and the tribal areas of Pakistan are still Al Qaeda’s most important base.

Pakistan was also the launch pad for the terrorist attacks in Mumbai in 2008, in which 164 people were killed. Although Pakistan’s government condemned the attacks, there is strong evidence that the terrorists had links to Pakistani intelligence.

If the Mumbai attacks had been launched from Iran, the West would be shouting about “state-sponsored terrorism”. With Pakistan, all you get is awkward mumbling.

AN UNEASY ALLIANCE

Of course, there are reasons for this difference in treatment. Unlike Iran, Pakistan is nominally an ally of the United States and receives billions in aid.

General Ashfaq Kayani, the Chief of Staff of the Pakistani military, is a charming fellow who once studied at Fort Leavenworth in the United States. As senior Pakistanis are swift to point out, many of their soldiers have died fighting Islamist militants.

But Pakistan has yet to come up with a satisfactory explanation for the fact that Osama was living just a stone’s throw from a big Pakistani military academy.

The Pakistani reaction to the raid that killed Osama was one of anti-American outrage, rather than self-criticism. A doctor who helped the US track down Osama has just been sentenced to decades in prison in Pakistan.

In the aftermath of the Osama raid, many in Pakistan speculate that the US may be planning another raid – this time to seize the country’s nuclear deterrent.

Partly in response to that, Pakistan is believed to have cranked up production of nuclear weapons and fissile material, and to have adopted a policy of moving its nukes around more frequently, often by road. The threat of a nuclear weapon “falling into the wrong hands” is obvious.

Just as worrying is the rise of Islamist militancy within the ranks of the Pakistani military itself – a problem that is acknowledged by the country’s top brass.

Fears of a wider war

While visitors to Iran often report that the general public is well-disposed towards the US, no visitor to Pakistan can miss the country’s deep anti-Americanism.

Episodes such as the Osama raid and the repeated US drone strikes on militants in Pakistan – which have indeed killed many innocents – have plunged relations between the US and Pakistan to a new low. As many as 69 per cent of Pakistanis say they regard America as an enemy.

Yet it is Iran’s non-existent nukes that continue to obsess the West. Diplomats have spent so long trying to stop Iran that I get the impression they no longer even ask themselves why it is such a high priority.

Press them, and you will get explanations about the dangers of a Middle Eastern arms race and Iran’s regional ambitions.

Interestingly, few seem to take seriously the idea that Israel often evokes – that Iran might actually commit nuclear genocide.

Western concerns are valid. But, in themselves, they do not seem compelling enough to explain the desperate focus on Iran. The main reason the Iranian dossier is so urgent seems to be the fear that Israel will soon attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, provoking a wider war.

American and European diplomats are reluctant to put it quite that directly, since this carries the uncomfortable implication that Western policy is driven by Israel. But when people say “time is running out” over Iran, it is the prospect of an Israeli attack they are usually thinking about.

LIVING WITH THE BOMB

Most of those I know, in government and outside, who have a close knowledge of the Iranian nuclear issue seem to believe that Israel is likely to attack this summer.

Last week, I thought I had found a dissenter. But he simply said: “Israel will wait until September or October because the weather is better and it’s closer to the US elections.”

For Israel, it does make sense to worry more about Iran than Pakistan. Iran has missiles that could hit Israel. Pakistan’s missiles do not have the range; its nuclear doctrine is focused on India. But the terrorists based in Pakistan are no friends of the Jewish state. One of the targets they attacked in Mumbai was a Jewish cultural centre.

In the end, the desperate effort to stop the Iranian nuclear programme – while living with Pakistani nukes – may have a simple explanation. Pakistan already has nuclear weapons. Iran can still be stopped.

But next time somebody tells you that Iranian nuclear weapons would be an unparalleled and intolerable threat to internation