WarSclerotic

Preparations For Possible US-Israeli Attack On Iran – Business Insider.

Talk of a joint U.S.-Israeli military strike on Iran has waned recently — while talk of U.S.-Israel cyberattacks have taken its place — but that hasn’t stopped Iran, Israel and the U.S. from continuing “to prepare all other options” for a possible strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

U.S. defense contracts, an Iranian F-16 acquisition, and Israel’s new military preparations suggest that all sides are getting ready for whatever may come.

Among recent U.S. defense contracts that could relate to an Iranian attack, Raytheon was awarded a $338 million contract to provide the Navy with 361 Tomahawk cruise missiles in their most recent configuration.

Of those, 238 of the misses will be designed to launch from submarines and the remainder from Navy ships like the Ticonderoga class Arleigh Burke guided missile cruiser currently operating with the 5th Fleet based in Bahrain east of Iran.

These are the same missiles that started the Libyan Operation Odyssey Dawn bombing campaign last March when 124 were launched from Navy ships and subs against Qaddafi’s missile defense radars and anti-aircraft sites around Tripoli.

The U.S. could simply be renewing depleted reserves from that mission, as well as others, or it could be planning ahead for a specific attack. With work on the contract expected to be completed in 2014, this particular batch wouldn’t be used in any immediate action, but could replenish reserves spent in any upcoming airstrikes.

Taking out radar and aircraft defenses would be one step in an Iranian attack. Another, equally as vital, would be determining where Tehran’s fleet of submarines may be parked in the Persian Gulf.

There are several ways of locating a sub accurately enough to destroy it, and one of them is using the ERAPSCO sonar buoy.

The buoys are a one-time-use asset that gets dropped into the water to work with other buoys pinpointing underwater objects. The Navy just ordered 17,000 of them under a $13 million contract days after the Tomahawk order. The buoys can be used for research as well, but in the face of biting defense cuts, it seems possible the Navy has something mission-focused for them in mind. Their delivery is also expected in early 2014, to potentially replenish supplies used before then.

US Navy USS Carl Vinson and the USS Bunker Hill

Both of these acquisitions could be part of a standard ordering cycle that we simply have no idea of, but in light of the following developments we thought them worth mentioning.

On May 9 the U.S. House of Representatives passed the United States-Israel Enhanced Security Cooperation Act of 2012, which seeks to “reaffirm the commitment to Israel’s security as a Jewish state; provide Israel with the military capabilities to defend itself by itself against any threats… [and] expand military and civilian cooperation” among other statements of U.S. policy.

Former counter-terrorism specialist and CIA military intelligence officer Philip Giraldi wrote that the bill “basically provides Israel with a blank check drawn on the U.S. taxpayer to maintain its ‘qualitative military edge’ over all of its neighbors combined.” (To that end the U.S. is stockpiling an increasing number of weapons in Israel.)

The Israeli government has been on lockdown since Netanyahu joined forces with the Kadima party and its Iranian-born leader Gen. Shaul Mofaz.

One senior Israeli figure with close ties to the leadership told Reuters that Netanyahu had made the decision to attack Iran before the U.S. presidential election in November so that the move “will bounce the Americans into supporting them.”

Israel just bought its fourth German-made sub capable of launching nuclear-tipped cruise missiles and German news source Der Spiegel subsequently reported that these are already deployed.

US Navy F/A-18E Super Hornet

Iran is not sitting idly by, but rather proactively waiting for a strike. Emily J Blasco of the InterAmerican Security Watch reports that Iran has been calibrating their anti-aircraft system to the specifications of a U.S.-made F-16 fighter that it received from Venezuela in 2006. (Venezuela purchased  F-16s from the U.S. before Hugo Chavez came to power.)

The U.S. has squadrons of F-16 based in the Persian Gulf and Israel’s 362 F-16s would be in play if they chose to launch attacks from a base in Azerbaijan (which is to the north of Iran).

According to the confidential testimony offered by a high-ranking member of the Venezuelan Air Force (FAV), an F-16 was disassembled in Venezuela, placed in sealed containers without any description of its contents and taken to Iran. Venezuelan pilots were then sent to reassemble the fighter and provide training to Iranians.

This allows Iran to familiarize its radar and defense systems with the F-16 before a possible attack. Blasco notes that possessing an F-16 “allows Iran to learn how to detect its presence in the radar or the speed in which it approaches [and] will be very useful in enemy combat.“

Overall we know that discussion between Iran and major world powers (the P5+1) that sought to resolve the row over Tehran’s disputed nuclear activities have broken down again, but no one has given any strong indications of what it would take for the conflict to spill over from the cyber realm to the physical world.

Israel to Press Visiting Putin on Iran – ABC News.

When Vladimir Putin visits Israel next week, the world may want to pay attention: The Iranian nuclear program will top the agenda — and the steely Russian president, widely viewed as coddling the Iranians, may hold the key to avoiding a potential slide into another Middle East war.

With close ties to Iran and a vote on the U.N. Security Council, Russia could play a key role in the coming months in determining whether Israel decides to attack Iran’s suspect nuclear program.

In Jerusalem, the commonly held view is that after years of dithering, the West has woken up to the threat from Iran — but the reluctance of Russia and China to support a crippling regime of sanctions and pressure is emboldening the Iranians, decreasing the chances they will back down and increasing the chances for an attack of last resort.

“The message they (the Russians) will receive is that Israel can’t tolerate a nuclear Iran. Of course we prefer a diplomatic solution, but we will use all means to protect Israel’s survival,” said Yacov Livne, head of the Russia desk at the Israeli Foreign Ministry.

“We expect Russia, as a member of the Security Council, to demonstrate responsibility and help to prevent the Iranian nuclear race,” he said. “I think that will be the most important subject, the central subject here next week.”

AP

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at… View Full Caption

Israel sees Iran as its most dangerous foe because it is convinced that Iran’s nuclear program is meant to build bombs and not produce energy, as Iran claims. The fears are compounded by Iran’s frequent calls for Israel’s destruction, support for anti-Israel militants and arsenal of ballistic missiles.

Officials here have fueled speculation about Israeli attack plans by contending that Iran’s movement of nuclear facilities into heavily fortified, underground bunkers will soon make the program immune to airstrikes.

Putin can expect pressure to join the West in its crusade to halt the program.

Putin’s calculations are complex. Resurgent Russia, trying to reassert itself in the world after a couple of lean decades, is not likely to abandon a trade partner and sometime ally; but his rhetoric suggests he may also want to placate the Israelis, as he has warned of “truly catastrophic” consequences should there be a military strike.

The United States and key European nations have also made clear they oppose an Israeli attack that would risk retaliation that could draw in other nations and further rattle the world economy.

Iran is under three sets of Security Council sanctions, which Israel has welcomed but also warned are not enough.

Efforts aimed at tougher U.N. sanctions have been opposed in the Security Council by Russia and China, but others are proceeding with new measures.

On July 1, the 27 nations of the European Union will stop importing Iranian oil. Other major importers such as Japan, India, and South Korea have all agreed under U.S. pressure to cut back on Iranian oil purchases.

Russia, which has plenty of its own oil, is not a factor in the oil sanctions, and it has also not participated in a Western-led effort to blackball Iran from international banking networks, with top officials in Moscow repeatedly objecting to “unilateral” actions against Tehran.

Putin’s visit comes after the inconclusive end of another round of talks between Iran and world powers. The U.S., Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany have held three rounds of talks with Iran in recent months, yielding no breakthroughs in persuading Iran to rein in uranium enrichment. A new set of low-level negotiations has been set for July.

Israel accuses Iran of using the talks as cover to continue its pursuit of the bomb. Israel has been pressing for a halt to enrichment, while placing all the uranium Iran has already treated under international supervision. Iran has rejected those demands.

Iran says its nuclear program is purely for civilian purposes like medical research and power generation — a claim met with skepticism in Israel and the West.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has said repeatedly that Israel can wait a weeks but not years for negotiations to succeed.

Russia’s role in the Iran standoff has been complex. Russia has benefited handsomely from the Iranian nuclear program, having built a $1 billion nuclear reactor in Bushehr.

At the same time, Russia continues to participate in the international dialogue with Iran. And bowing to U.S. and Israeli demands, Moscow has scrapped a deal to sell Iran long-range missiles that would have provided a powerful deterrent against an air attack.

“I don’t think Russia is interested in a nuclear Iran. I think Russia has an interest in a stable Middle East where radical Islam does not rule,” said Livne, the Foreign Ministry official.

No comment was available on the issue from Russian officials Thursday.

Russia plays a sophisticated game with Iran, said Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-born analyst who lives in Israel. He said it’s possible that the spectacle of Putin in Israel was designed to send a message to Tehran that it had better curb its nuclear ambitions.

“One of the reasons Putin is coming to Israel is to put pressure on the Iranians, to say, ‘If you don’t compromise, I will align myself more with the country that you consider to be your enemy,'” Javedanfar said.

Another subject sure to come up during the 24-hour visit is Russian arms sales to Syria, Israel’s enemy to the north, which is in the midst of a violent uprising against President Bashar Assad that has been going on for 15 months.

Israel is worried that weapons in Syria will make their way to anti-Israel Hezbollah militants in neighboring Lebanon. Israel claimed Russian missiles sold to Syria made their way to Hezbollah during its 2006 war with the Israeli military.

Despite sometimes differing approaches, Israel and Russia enjoy generally friendly ties, and have deep economic and cultural relations bolstered by the more than 1 million immigrants from the former Soviet Union who live here.

Any attack will cause end of Israel, warns Iranian general – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

Statement comes after failed nuclear talks between Iran and world powers earlier this week in Moscow.

Men watching the launch of a Shahab-3 missile near Qom, Iran. Photo by AP

Any attack by Israel against Iran would lead to the collapse of the Jewish state, a senior Iranian general said Saturday.

“The Zionist regime cannot do the least against Iran but if the regime still considers any military attack against us, then it would cause its own end and collapse,” General Mostafa Izadi, Iran’s deputy chief of staff, told Fars news agency.

The general was referring to the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites after negotiations between Iran and the world powers earlier this week in Moscow failed.

The two-day talks in Moscow ended without tangible results, not even the prospect of another round of talks.

The two sides merely agreed to hold a low-level meeting of working groups on July 3 in Istanbul. Neither the formation of these groups nor the agenda have yet been clarified.

Israel accuses Iran of working on a clandestine nuclear weapons program which directly threatens its safety and has therefore not ruled out military attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites.

Iran has several times warned that in case of an Israeli attack, it would use its medium-range missiles which – according to Tehran – have a range of 2,000 kilometers and could therefore reach any part of Israel.

Although President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has distanced himself from his own previous remarks on wiping Israel from the map, some generals from the army and revolutionary guards continue to repeat such threats.

Jerusalem Post – Breaking News.

Turkey downplays ‘ill intentions,’ says downed jet may have violated Syrian airspace.

(Sure.  Just an “honest mistake.”  Remember Turkey’s reaction to Israel’s stopping the boat load of terrorists a year ago?  Turkey really makes we want to puke. – JW )

Saturday, 23 June 2012

After making a phone call with Damascus, Turkey’s President Abdullah Gul said that the downed jet fighter might have violated Syrian airspace. (Reuters)

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Newly-supplied Russian Buk-M2 anti-air missile used to down Turkish warplane.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 23, 2012, 12:55 PM (GMT+02:00)

Russian Buk-M2 air defense missile in Syria

To ambush the Turkish Air Force F-4 Super Phantom Friday June 22, over Latakia, Syria used Russian-made self-propelled medium range anti-air Buk-M2 missiles (NATO codenamed SA-11) recently supplied by Moscow. The SA-11 can down aircraft flying at altitudes up to 14 kilometers and Mach 3 speed.
Since the sophisticated weapons were delivered to the Assad regime in recent weeks, it must be assumed that local missile crews had not finished training in their use and would have had to rely on help from their Russian instructors to fire one.
This would be the first instance in the 15-month Syrian uprising of an advanced Russian-supplied weapon hitting the military target of a NATO member. Hence the comment from Washington by US State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland who said: “We’ve seen the reports… We have obviously been in contact with our Turkish ally…. To my knowledge, they haven’t raised this at NATO at this point.”
Ankara has repeatedly threatened to ask NATO to invoke the pact’s article 5 obligating members to come to the aid of a fellow member coming under attack. In this case, however, the Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s rhetoric was relatively restrained. He vowed to “determinedly take necessary steps” in response “once the incident is fully clarified,” leaving Ankara’s response deliberately vague.
President Abdullah Gul spoke out more strongly: “It is impossible to ignore our fighter jet being shot down by Syria,” he said after Damascus admitted to shooting down the plane, claiming its air defenses acted according to standard procedure before realizing it was a Turkish air force jet. Both are searching for the two missing pilots.
debkafile’s military experts add: This was also the first time in five years any weapons system with Israeli manufacturing input had faced a Russian weapon acquired by Syria.
The first time was September 6, 2007, when Israeli fighter-bombers demolished the Iranian-North Korean-built nuclear reactor in the northern Syrian town of Al-Kibar. Airspace over the reactor was guarded by Russian Pantsyr-S1 anti-air missiles capable of reaching aircraft flying at altitudes of up 12 kilometers as well as cruise missiles.  Israeli bombers got through by disabling the Russian missiles’ radar so that Damascus never realized its reactor was being bombed until it had been smashed and Israeli bombers were home.

Five years later, Turkey lost a Super Phantom which had undergone partial upgrading by the Israeli Aerospace Industry. However, two years ago, Ankara broke off its security and military ties with Jerusalem after a clash at sea between Turkish Mavi Marmara and Israel troops wich intercepted the vessel on its way to break Israel’s Gaza blockade, leaving nine Turkish pro-Palestinian activists dead.
By severing those ties, the Erdogan government left Israel’s improvements unfinished and the Turkish air force’s F-4 short of counter-measures for evading or attacking the latest Russian-made air defense weapons fired by Syria.
According to, debkafile’s military sources waylaying a Turkish military plane over the sea was therefore a simple matter for the new SA-11.
Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan admitted Saturday that the jet was shot down over the Mediterranean around 13 kilometers west of the Syrian port of Latakia. He did not explain what a Turkish bomber fighter was doing over Syrian territorial waters, but the suggestion, which Western military sources have confirmed, was that Turkish military jets have lately been carrying out almost daily reconnaissance flights over the Syrian coast. Moscow and Damascus apparently decided it was time to stop the missions which among other things spied on the Russian arms supplies transiting Russian bases at the Syrian ports of Tartus and Latakia.

Gaza terrorists fire 22 rockets at Sderot and environs, hitting a school and factory | The Times of Israel.

Iron Dome makes five interceptions on Saturday; IDF chief calls for urgent meeting to consider military’s next steps

File photo of the southern Israeli city of Sderot (photo credit: Moshe Shai/Flash90)

Gaza-based terrorists fired twenty-two rockets into southern Israel on Saturday, causing damage to a school and factory. The latest attacks bring the total number of bombs fired from the Strip to 150, as cross-border clashes between Palestinians and the IDF entered a sixth day.

The majority of the rockets launched Saturday were aimed at the southern city of Sderot, but several landed in other parts of the Eshkol, Ashkelon and Shaar Hanegev Regional Councils, which border the Strip.

One of the rockets exploded in Sderot’s industrial zone, causing moderate-to-severe injuries to one man.

According to Magen David Adom paramedics who arrived at the scene, the 50-year-old man was hit in the neck by shrapnel from the explosion. A factory building was also damaged, and several other area residents were treated for shock.

Another rocket caused damage to a school in Sderot, but there were no reports of injuries.

Iron Dome shot down five of the incoming rockets, according to Israel Radio. Six of the rockets landed around neighboring Netivot.

The IDF has instructed local residents to remain no more than 15 seconds away from a safe, enclosed space.

IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz called for an urgent meeting of senior officials to discuss the military’s next steps.

Sderot mayor David Buskila convened a special meeting Saturday morning with police and Home Front Command officials. He demanded that the government restore calm to his city.

“We have known this reality for 11 years already,” Buskila said. “We demand that quiet be restored to the city. At least the relative calm, which has allowed us to do many good things.”

The mayor called on the government to act, and said that the city’s center for victims of stress and anxiety was open and had already received several residents.

Israeli Air Force jets bombed three Hamas military bases in the Strip early Saturday morning. Palestinian sources reported that at least 20 people were injured in the airstrikes.

The IDF Spokesperson said the strikes against targets in northern and central Gaza came in response to the ongoing firing of rockets at Israel over the past several days.

Palestinian terrorists fired a total of six rockets at Israel on Friday, causing no damage or injuries. Twelve rockets hit Israel on Thursday, according to the spokesperson’s office.

Multiple IAF strikes carried out Friday against terrorists operating in the Strip killed two and injured at least four others.

One of those airstrikes came after at least three rockets were fired into Israel. According to Palestinian sources, the IAF targeted a motorcyclist driving northwest of Gaza City, killing him.

Earlier on Friday, a terrorist was killed and two others injured as they prepared to fire rockets into Israel near the al-Bureij refugee camp in the Strip, reported the IDF Spokesperson.

Palestinian officials in Gaza reported that the terrorist killed in the strike on al-Bureij belonged to a pro al-Qaeda, fringe Salafist Islamist group, which Israel holds responsible for a deadly cross-border attack from Egypt’s Sinai on Monday, in which an Israeli civilian was killed.

A Gaza health official, Ashraf Al Kedra, confirmed the death and injuries in the refugee camp.

The latest escalation of rocket attacks from Gaza began Monday. Since then, more than 130 rockets and missiles have been fired into Israel. Israeli airstrikes on Gaza terrorist targets have since killed at least six Palestinians.

A Hamas spokesman said his organization would respond severely to any aggression on Israel’s part and rejected reports that a ceasefire had been reached between the sides.

On Thursday, Israeli Ambassador to the UN Ron Prosor lodged a formal complaint with the Security Council and UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon regarding the recent barrage of attacks from the Strip. He called on the international community to recognize Israel’s right to self-defense.

“So long as there are no quiet towns in southern Israel, Gaza won’t be quiet either,” Prosor said. He also protested what he said was the fact that Israel’s compliance with UN demands to allow aid into Gaza is met with rocket fire.

Gaza terrorists fire barrage of rockets at Sderot | The Times of Israel.

Man suffers moderate injuries as one of fifteen rockets explodes in southern city’s industrial zone

File photo of the southern Israeli city of Sderot (photo credit: Moshe Shai/Flash90)

More than fifteen rockets were fired toward the southern Israeli city of Sderot from the Gaza Strip on Saturday morning. One of the rockets exploded in the city’s industrial zone, moderately injuring one man.

According to Magen David Adom paramedics who arrived at the scene, the 50-year-old man was hit in the neck by shrapnel from the explosion. Several other Sderot residents were treated for shock.

Israeli Air Force jets bombed three Hamas military bases in the Strip early Saturday morning. Palestinian sources reported that at least 20 people were injured in the airstrikes.

The IDF Spokesperson said the strikes against targets in northern and central Gaza came in response to the ongoing firing of rockets at Israel over the past several days.

Palestinian terrorists fired a total of six rockets at Israel on Friday, causing no damage or injuries. Twelve rockets hit Israel on Thursday, according to the spokesperson’s office.

Multiple IAF strikes carried out Friday against terrorists operating in the Strip killed two and injured at least four others.

One of those airstrikes came after at least three rockets were fired into Israel. According to Palestinian sources, the IAF targeted a motorcyclist driving northwest of Gaza City, killing him.

Earlier on Friday, a terrorist was killed and two others injured as they prepared to fire rockets into Israel near the al-Bureij refugee camp in the Strip, reported the IDF Spokesperson.

Palestinian officials in Gaza reported that the terrorist killed in the strike on al-Bureij belonged to a pro al-Qaeda, fringe Salafist Islamist group, which Israel holds responsible for a deadly cross-border attack from Egypt’s Sinai on Monday, in which an Israeli civilian was killed.

A Gaza health official, Ashraf Al Kedra, confirmed the death and injuries in the refugee camp.

The latest escalation of rocket attacks from Gaza began Monday. Since then, more than 130 rockets and missiles have been fired into Israel. Israeli airstrikes on Gaza terrorist targets have since killed at least six Palestinians.

A Hamas spokesman said his organization would respond severely to any aggression on Israel’s part and rejected reports that a ceasefire had been reached between the sides.

On Thursday, Israeli Ambassador to the UN Ron Prosor lodged a formal complaint with the Security Council and UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon regarding the recent barrage of attacks from the Strip. He called on the international community to recognize Israel’s right to self-defense.

“So long as there are no quiet towns in southern Israel, Gaza won’t be quiet either,” Prosor said. He also protested what he said was the fact that Israel’s compliance with UN demands to allow aid into Gaza is met with rocket fire.

Secretary of State Clinton Launches Harsh Criticism at Iran | Jewocity Blog.

Russia warns that Iran nuclear talks too slow to forestall conflict – CSMonitor.com.

Russian is uniquely placed to mediate between Iran and world powers, but analysts say Moscow’s role is limited in part by a lack of compromise from Washington and Tehran.

European Union Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton (l.) meets with Iran’s chief negotiator Saeed Jalili in Moscow in this June 18 file photo.
(Kirill Kudryavtsev/REUTERS/File)

By Scott Peterson, Staff writer
posted June 22, 2012 at 3:11 pm EDT

Moscow

Although progress was made at Iran nuclear talks in Moscow this week, Russian analysts are concerned that the pace may be too slow to forestall a military conflict. They also caution that Russia‘s ability to mediate, a role for which it is uniquely suited, is limited by the lack of compromise from both Washington and Tehran – and Moscow’s own variable relations with the Islamic Republic.

Western diplomats are anonymously spinning the line that Iran doesn’t really want a deal that would restrict its nuclear program. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton suggested that some in Iran see an attack is the “best thing … because that would unify [Iran], it would legitimize the regime.”

The Iranian media, likewise, charged that plans of the P5+1 group (the US, Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany) were “built on an axis of destruction,” and that Israel sabotaged the talks. One Iranian lawmaker said failure was inevitable if “Westerners want to move under the instructions of the Zionist regime.”

Iran’s nuclear program: 4 things you probably didn’t know

Russia straddles both camps like no other. As part of the P5+1, it has joined in ever-increasing sanctions on Iran. Yet it also built Iran’s only nuclear power reactor, and sold sophisticated armaments to Iran for years.

Like all the members of the P5+1, Russia does not want Iran to have a nuclear weapon. But it argues that diplomacy is the only way to ensure that end. So Russia’s pessimistic assessment may matter, because of the wide chasm that remains as experts gather for technical meetings in Istanbul on July 3.

“For Russia the result is moderately positive,” says Sergei Markov, a Kremlin adviser and vice president of the Plekhanov Economic University in Moscow. “It showed Iran is more ready to express its views and compromise, and the Western side did not issue an ultimatum.”

Yet the talks need a “more clear advance and quicker developments” if they are to forestall a conflict, says Mr. Markov, who calculates that there is a “quite high” chance of an Israeli attack on Iran in July or August – just months before the US presidential election in November.

“If we would have three more years of such moderately positive results, it would be good,” says Markov. “But in this much tighter time-frame, it is not enough.”

Israel has repeatedly threatened military action to prevent Iran from achieving even the capability of making a nuclear weapon, much less an actual bomb, and demands that Iran halt all enrichment, permanently. It has decried the talks as a waste of time, while Iran continues to enrich uranium for what it declares are peaceful purposes.

‘Give up the practice of demonizing Iran’

Iran has repeatedly rejected nuclear weapons as un-Islamic, and US intelligence agencies believe that Iran has not made a decision to go for a bomb. Even if it did so, experts agree, Iran is still years away from making a deliverable device.

“One should give up the practice of demonizing Iran, which a number of Western countries have been doing for years already,” says Igor Korotchenko, director of the Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade in Russia.

“There is no proof that Iran is carrying out a military nuclear program,” said Mr. Korotchenko, speaking at a press conference of Iran experts a day after the Moscow talks ended. “There are suspicions and they stay suspicions. Despite so much attention of various [intelligence agencies], there is no proof. We still remember the situation in Iraq and fruitless searches for biological weapons in Saddam Hussein‘ palaces.”

While Russia wants dialogue, Western nations “prefer to use more radical steps for the sake of saving the world,” says Rajab Safarov, director of the Center for Studying Modern Iran.

“They do not want Iran to speak in any way as equals,” Mr. Safarov said at the same event. “The West has driven itself into such a place that by 3 p.m. [on Tuesday] the talks were already over, and it was a failure.”

A last-minute effort to save the Moscow round yielded the agreement a few hours later to hold the technical meeting only in Istanbul on July 3.

Moscow talks more successful than previous two rounds

The current round of talks between Iran and world powers began in Istanbul in April, after a 15-month hiatus. Atmospherics were good and signals from both sides were positive, prompting hope that a deal might halt Iran’s most sensitive work – enrichment to 20 percent – in exchange for easing sanctions.

But the second round in Baghdad in May ended acrimoniously, as the P5+1 insisted that Iran halt all levels of enrichment – as required by UN Security Council resolutions – and offered no sanctions relief, which Tehran has demanded.

Also crucial for Iran is recognition of its right to enrich uranium, as spelled out in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

In Moscow, Iran detailed its views about the P5+1 package for the first time, but neither side shifted an inch.

“There were more results than in Istanbul and Baghdad, it’s a small step forward,” says Anton Khlopkov, director of the Center for Energy and Security Studies in Moscow. But as the process unfolds, it is also clear that other issues are at play.

“Many people in Russia understand that nuclear is not the core of the crisis, but [rather] the low level of US-Iran relations,” says Mr. Khlopkov, editor of the Nuclear Club journal. “So Russia sees itself as a mediator, but the keys to the problem are in Washington and Tehran. So if those keys are not used, no amount of effort can make a difference.”

And after three rounds already this year, it is still not clear how far either side is willing to compromise. After the Moscow talks, both sides publicly portrayed the other as having to make a “choice” for diplomacy and to prove sincere intent.

Russia as mediator

Russia invested some diplomatic capital in the outcome, aware that any breakthrough would be a foreign policy feather in the cap of recently reelected President Vladimir Putin.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Tehran the week before the talks, and senior officials were very active during negotiations and on the sidelines, trying to prevent a breakdown. Mr. Putin and President Obama also issued a joint statement from the G-20 summit in Mexico, calling on Iran to fulfill its “obligations.”

“The Russians feel the Iranians are quite serious,” says Vladimir Sotnikov, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. “I was in Iran in April and saw myself Iranians suffering high prices … so they need these negotiations.”

Russia is also quite serious about finding a solution, says Mr. Sotnikov. During a conference in the city of Qazvin, the Iranians spoke of an Iran-Russian “strategic partnership” and “said it would be easier to force out outside powers from the region.”

Still, the recent history of those ties has fluctuated between hot and cold, sometimes in a matter of days.

The result is less leverage on Iran than other members of the P5+1 might think, says Sotnikov: “Russia has some influence, but not enough to persuade Iran to be compliant with international demands.”

“Yes, serious sanctions influence the situation in Iran, but one can’t go one making pressure on Iran on and on,” says Vladimir Yevseyev, director Russian Center for Socio-Political Studies, who spoke at the press conference. “Now there is talk about economic blockade, then there will be a naval blockade and what will be next? Military action? One can’t toughen sanctions forever. It leads us to a dead end.”