Archive for June 19, 2012

U.S., Israel developed Flame computer virus to slow Iranian nuclear efforts, officials say – The Washington Post

June 19, 2012

U.S., Israel developed Flame computer virus to slow Iranian nuclear efforts, officials say – The Washington Post.

By , and , Published: June 19

The United States and Israel jointly developed a sophisticated computer virus nicknamed Flame that collected critical intelligence in preparation for cyber-sabotage attacks aimed at slowing Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon, according to Western officials with knowledge of the effort.

The massive piece of malware was designed to secretly map Iran’s computer networks and monitor the computers of Iranian officials, sending back a steady stream of intelligence used to enable an ongoing cyberwarfare campaign, according to the officials.

The effort, involving the National Security Agency, the CIA and Israel’s military, has included the use of destructive software such as the so-called Stuxnet virus to cause malfunctions in Iran’s nuclear enrichment equipment.

The emerging details about Flame provide new clues about what is believed to be the first sustained campaign of cyber-sabotage against an adversary of the United States.

“This is about preparing the battlefield for another type of covert action,” said one former high-ranking U.S. intelligence official, who added that Flame and Stuxnet were elements of a broader assault that continues today. “Cyber collection against the Iranian program is way further down the road than this.”

Flame came to light last month after Iran detected a series of cyberattacks on its oil industry. The disruption was directed by Israel in a unilateral operation that apparently caught its U.S. partners off guard, according to several U.S. and Western officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

There had been speculation that the United States had a role in developing Flame, but the collaboration on the virus between Washington and Israel has not been previously confirmed. Commercial security researchers last week reported that Flame contained some of the same code as Stuxnet. Experts described the overlap as DNA-like evidence that the two sets of malware were parallel projects run by the same entity.

Spokespersons for the CIA, the NSA and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, as well as the Israeli Embassy in Washington, declined to comment.

The virus is among the most sophisticated and subversive pieces of malware exposed to date. Experts said the program was designed to replicate across even highly secure networks, then control everyday computer functions to send a flow of secrets back to its creators. The code could activate computer microphones and cameras, log keyboard strokes, take computer screen shots, extract geolocation data from images and send and receive commands and data through Bluetooth wireless technology.

Flame was designed to do all this while masquerading as a routine Microsoft software update, evading detection for several years by using a sophisticated program to crack an encryption algorithm.

“This is not something that most security researchers have the skills or resources to do,” said Tom Parker, chief technology officer for Fusion X, a security firm specializing in simulating state-sponsored cyberattacks, who does not know who was behind the virus. “You’d expect that of only the most advanced cryptomathematicians, such as those working at NSA.”

Flame was developed at least five years ago as part of a classified effort code-named Olympic Games, according to officials familiar with U.S. cyber operations and experts who have scrutinized its code. The U.S.-Israeli collaboration was intended to slow Iran’s nuclear program, reduce the pressure for a conventional military attack and extend the timetable for diplomacy and sanctions.

The cyberattacks augmented conventional sabotage efforts by both countries, which included inserting flawed centrifuge parts and other components in Iran’s nuclear supply chain.

The best-known cyberweapon set loose on Iran was Stuxnet, a name coined by researchers in the antivirus industry who discovered the virus two years ago. It infected a specific type of industrial controller at Iran’s uranium enrichment plant in Natanz, causing almost 1,000 centrifuges to spin out of control. The damage occurred gradually, over months, and Iranian officials initially thought it was the result of incompetence.

The scale of the espionage and sabotage effort “is proportionate to the problem that’s trying to be resolved,” the former intelligence official said, referring to the Iranian nuclear program. Although Stuxnet and Flame infections can be countered, “it doesn’t mean that other tools aren’t in play or performing effectively,” he said.

To develop these tools, the United States relies on two of its elite spy agencies. The NSA, known mainly for its electronic eavesdropping and code-breaking capabilities, has extensive expertise in developing malicious code that can be aimed at U.S. adversaries, including Iran. The CIA lacks the NSA’s level of sophistication in building malware, but is deeply involved in the cyber campaign.

The agency’s Information Operations Center is second only to the CIA’s Counterterrorism Center in size. The IOC, as it is known, performs an array of espionage functions, including extracting data from laptops seized in counterterrorism raids. But the center specializes in computer penetrations that require closer contact with the target, such as using spies or unwitting contractors to spread a contagion on a thumb drive.

Both agencies analyze the intelligence obtained through malware such as Flame, and have continued to develop new weapons even as recent attacks have been exposed.

Flame’s discovery shows the important role of mapping networks and collecting intelligence on targets as the prelude to an attack, especially in closed computer networks. Officials say gaining and keeping access to a network is 99 percent of the challenge.

“It is far more difficult to penetrate a network, learn about it, reside on it forever and extract information from it without being detected than it is to go in and stomp around inside the network causing damage,” said Michael V. Hayden, a former NSA director and CIA director who left office in 2009. He declined to discuss any operations he was involved with during his time in government.

The effort to delay Iran’s nuclear program using cyber-techniques began in the mid-2000s, when President George W. Bush was in his second term. At that point it consisted mainly of intelligence gathering to identify potential targets and develop tools to disrupt them. In 2008, the program went operational and shifted from military to CIA control, former officials said.

Despite their collaboration on developing the malicious code, the United States and Israel have not always coordinated attacks. Israel’s April assaults on Iran’s Oil Ministry and oil export facilities caused only minor disruptions. The episode led Iran to investigate and ultimately discover Flame.

“The virus penetrated some fields — one of them was the oil sector,” Gholam Reza Jalali, an Iranian military cyber official, told Iranian state radio in May. “Fortunately, we detected and controlled this single incident.”

Some U.S. intelligence officials were dismayed that Israel’s unilateral incursion led to the discovery of the virus, prompting countermeasures.

The disruptions led Iran to ask a Russian security firm and a Hungarian cyber lab for help, according to U.S. and international officials familiar with the incident.

Last week, researchers with the Kaspersky Labs, the Russian security firm, reported their conclusion that Flame — a name they came up with — was created by the same group or groups that built Stuxnet. Kaspersky declined to comment on whether it was approached by Iran.

“We are now 100 percent sure that the Stuxnet and Flame groups worked together,” said Roel Schouwenberg, a Boston-based senior researcher with Kaspersky Labs.

Kaspersky also determined that the Flame malware predates Stuxnet. “It looks like the Flame platform was used as a kickstarter of sorts to get the Stuxnet project going,” Schouwenberg said.

 

 

Staff writer Joby Warrick contributed to this report.

© The Washington Post Company

Nuclear talks in Moscow between Iran, Western powers end in failure

June 19, 2012

Nuclear talks in Moscow between Iran, Western powers end in failure – Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper.

(Surprise, surprise… – JW )

By Barak Ravid | Jun.19, 2012 | 10:01 PM
European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and Iran's chief negotiator Saeed Jalili

European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and Iran’s chief negotiator Saeed Jalili attend a meeting in Baghdad, May 23, 2012. Photo by Reuters

Latest update: EU’s foreign policy chief says gaps between sides remain fundamental; nuclear experts to meet again early next month in Istanbul.

By Barak Ravid | Jun.19, 2012 | 10:01 PM

09:00 P.M – The European Union’s foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton grimly summed up the third round of nuclear talks with Iran, saying at a press conference in Moscow that the gaps between the Islamic Republic and the six Western powers remain significant and fundamental.

“The choice is Iran’s,” Ashton said. “We expect Iran to decide whether it is willing to make diplomacy work.”

She added that the six Western powers remained united in their position, and that they had once again presented to Iran the package it was offered in the previous round of talks in Baghdad. According to the offer, Iran would stop 20 percent enrichment of uranium, shut down the Fordow nuclear facility and ship out stockpiled highly-enriched nuclear materials.

According to Ashton, Western representatives arrived at the talks prepared to make progress if Iran agrees to the offer. The exchanges, she said, “were detailed, tough and frank… We have begun to tackle critical issues (but) it remains clear that there are significant gaps between the substance of the two positions.”

The EU’s foreign minister said that on July 3 experts from both sides will meet in Istanbul to discuss the West’s proposal and Iran’s response. After that meeting, further discussion will take place at a deputy-level between Helga Schmid and Ali Bagheri. “I will then be directly in touch with (Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Dr. Said) Jalili about prospect for a future meeting at the political level,” Ashton said.

5:00 P.M – The representatives of Iran and the six Western powers have concluded close to six hours of talks at Moscow’s Golden Ring hotel on Tuesday, on the second day of nuclear discussions. So far, it seems that the sides are still far from a breakthrough.

Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Said Jalili is currently meeting with the European Union’s foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton in an attempt to make headway.

1:35 P.M. – Iran warned on Tuesday that Western sanctions against the country’s oil exports must be lifted and that their right to a civilian nuclear program recognized, or else Tehran could break off negotiations.
Iran’s delegation said a negative response from EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who is leading six-power group talking with Iran, would mean “the end of the negotiations in its current configuration. (DPA)
1:15 P.M. – The Guardian correspondent Julian Borger who is currently in Moscow tweeted that a senior official in the Iranian delegation told him that the Russian representatives brought up several ideas for bridging the gaps between Iran and the world powers.

11:35 A.M. – The second day of nuclear talks between Iran and the six world powers started on Tuesday. The head of the Russian negotiating team Sergei Ryabkov updated the rest of the representatives regarding his meeting on Monday morning with the Iranian delegation. Ryabkov told Reuters that he does not fear the collapse of the talks.

“I don’t think anything will break down. We will have a reasonable outcome,” Ryabkov told Reuters after meeting his counterparts from the six powers in a Moscow hotel on Tuesday.

He had called the two sides’ negotiating positions “rather difficult and tough to reconcile” on Monday.

11:00 A.M. – Head Russian negotiator Sergei Ryabkov will meet with head Iranian negotiator Sayed Jalili this morning in an attempt to bring about a breakthrough in the talks. On Monday, Jalili spent several hours in talks with Nikolai Patrushev, Russian President Putin’s national security adviser.

Blogger Laura Rozen, who is covering the talks from Moscow, quoted a Western diplomat who cited persistent gaps in the two sides’ positions. “It’s not enough, it’s not close to enough,” the diplomat said.

According to the diplomat, the Iranians presented their position using Power Point slides on Monday, but did not offer any new positions or signs of flexibility regarding their demand to enrich uranium to a level of 20 percent.

10:30 A.M. – Iranian officials and representatives of the six powers are scheduled to renew their talks at 11 A.M. on Tuesday morning at Moscow’s Golden Ring Hotel.

Several hours before the renewal of talks, U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin released a joint statement calling on Iran to prove to the international community that its nuclear program is meant for strictly peaceful purposes.

In their statement, released after a meeting at the G20 summit in Mexico, the two leaders called on Iran to fully honor its obligations as outlined in UN Security Council’s resolution. Both leaders emphasized their recognition of Iran’s right to a peaceful nuclear energy program, but said Iran must make serious efforts to restore the trust of the international community.

Rocket hits building on southern kibbutz, injuring three

June 19, 2012

Rocket hits building on southern kibbutz, injuring three | The Times of Israel.

Over 40 missiles fired at western Negev over Tuesday in dramatic escalation

An Israeli soldier guarding near the Gaza border in April. (photo credit: Tsafrir Abayov/Flash90)

 

Rocket and mortars rained on southern Israel Tuesday as tensions between Israel and Gaza escalated dramatically.

 

One rocket hit a building on Kibbutz Yad Mordechai, setting it on fire and injuring three people according to initial reports. One person is in moderate condition and the other two suffered from shock.

 

 

Over 40 Kassam rockets, Grad missiles and mortar shells were fired by Gazan terrorists into the area surrounding the Strip. All the rockets landed in open areas and there were no injuries or damage reported.

 

Three Grad missiles were fired at the town of Netivot at about 8:30 p.m. Tuesday. All three landed in open areas near the town.

 

Several rockets were fired into the Eshkol, Hof Ashkelon, Sdot Negev and Shaar Hanegev regions in the morning and afternoon into the night.

 

Israeli planes struck the central Gaza strip following the second volley of rockets, killing two terrorists in a rocket-launching squad, the Israel Defense Forces said on its website. Military sources promised to respond to the rocket fire, Channel 2 news reported.

 

The rocket strikes were the latest salvo in a period which has seen multiple cross-border incidents involving Gazan terrorists and the IDF.

 

Responsibility for the morning rocket fire was claimed by Izz ad-Din al-Qassam brigades, Hamas’s military wing, which said it was aiming at an IDF base at Zikim, close to Ashkelon. It said it fired them in response to the death of one of its members, who was killed in an Israeli strike on Monday — itself a response to previous rocket fire from Gaza.

 

Earlier, in the small hours of Tuesday morning, IAF planes struck a terrorist cell planting explosives near the border fence in the central Gaza Strip. A Palestinian health official says two Gaza men were killed as a result.

 

That airstrike came hours after Israeli planes attacked a terrorist cell in the northern Gaza Strip as its members were in the midst of trying to fire rockets at the western Negev on Monday evening.

 

Palestinian sources said the strike was carried out in Beit Hanoun and two Palestinians were killed as well as several wounded.

 

One of the casualties in the later strike was the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam brigades member, Ynet reported.

 

An earlier IDF sortie Monday also targeted terror targets in Beit Hanoun, the IDF said, killing two members of Islamic Jihad.

 

Also Monday, a rocket fired from Gaza exploded in an open area near the city of Sderot. No injuries were reported.

 

On Monday morning, Said Fashapshe, 36 and a father-of-four, a resident of Haifa who had been employed by the Defense Ministry for years and working on the Israel-Egypt border fence for the past 18 months, was killed in a terrorist attack there. Terrorists fired on a convoy of construction workers.

Iran, world powers deadlocked at nuclear talks – CNBC

June 19, 2012

Iran, world powers deadlocked at nuclear talks – CNBC.

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Iran and six world powers blamed each other for deadlock at talks on Tehran’s nuclear program on Tuesday as negotiators struggled for a breakthrough to reduce the risk of a new Middle East war.

Late on the second and final day of talks in Moscow, diplomats said negotiators were still far from agreement on Iranian work which the United States, China, Russia, Germany, France and Britain fear may be aimed at building nuclear arms.

The six powers want Tehran to stop enriching uranium to levels that bring it close to acquiring weapons-grade material, but Iran has demanded relief from economic sanctions and an acknowledgement that it has the right to enrich uranium.

If talks collapse, anxiety could grow on financial markets over the danger of higher oil prices and conflict in the Middle East because Israel has threatened to attack Iranian nuclear sites if diplomacy fails to stop Tehran getting the bomb.

“We did not come to Moscow only for discussions. We came to Moscow for a resolution. But we believe the opposite side is not ready to reach a resolution,” an Iranian diplomat said.

Iran says its program has only non-military purposes but the so-called P5+1, grouping the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany – say Tehran must do more to prove this and permit United Nations inspections of its work.

“Our key requirements are: stop, shut and ship,” said a Western diplomat who was present at the talks.

He was referring to demands for Iran to stop producing higher-grade uranium, ship any stockpile out of the country and close down an underground enrichment facility, Fordow.

Diplomats said efforts were being made to find enough common ground to press on with talks in Moscow, and to ensure negotiations continue elsewhere in the future.

“There are a lot of ideas in play. It’s part of the ebb and flow of negotiations,” said a Western envoy.

“Contacts are still ongoing to seek a way forward,” another Western diplomat said after hours of talks on Tuesday.

RUSSIAN HOPES

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who leads Russia’s delegation at the talks, said as talks resumed on Tuesday that diplomacy could still work even though a European Union spokesman had described day one as “intense and tough”.

“I don’t think anything will break down. We will have a reasonable outcome,” Ryabkov said.

But other diplomats were less optimistic and hopes receded as the day wore on with no sign of progress.

The Moscow talks follow two rounds of negotiations since diplomacy resumed in April after a 15-month hiatus during which the West cranked up sanctions pressure and Israel repeated its threat to bomb Iranian nuclear sites if diplomacy failed.

A series of United Nations Security Council resolutions since 2006 have demanded Iran suspend all its enrichment-related activities. Tehran denies planning to build nuclear weapons and says its program is purely for civilian purposes.

Rather than halt enrichment – a process which refines uranium for use as fuel or, if done to a much higher level, nuclear bomb material – Iran has increased its activities.

Experts had said even before the talks began that a breakthrough was unlikely.

The P5+1 are wary of making concessions that would let Tehran draw out the talks and gain the time needed to develop nuclear weapons capability. Iran’s negotiators want a deal that they can sell at home as a triumph.

“No diplomatic deal to solve the Iranian nuclear standoff will be possible if it does not allow Tehran’s leadership to proclaim some measure of victory, most probably a recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium for civilian reactors,” said George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think-tank.

NEW SANCTIONS

An EU embargo on Iranian oil takes full effect on July 1 and new U.S. financial sanctions some days before that. Iran’s crude oil exports have fallen by some 40 percent this year, according to the International Energy Agency.

Increasing the pressure, Israel – widely believed to be the only nuclear-armed country in the Middle East – has said time is running out before Iran’s nuclear facilities, some of which are deep underground, become invulnerable to air strikes.

In early 2010, Iran announced it had started enriching uranium to 20 percent purity, a level much higher than what is needed for power generation and seen by some experts as a dangerous step towards being able to make bomb material.

The six powers want a substantive response to their offer of fuel supplies for Tehran’s research reactor and relief in sanctions on the sale of commercial aircraft parts to Iran.

Diplomats said the powers had also suggested, at a meeting in Baghdad in May, that they suspend introducing new sanctions at the U.N. level while diplomacy is taking place, but only if their demands on high-grade uranium are met.

After meeting at the G20 summit in Mexico on Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Barack Obama again called for Tehran to prove its nuclear program is not aimed at developing weapons. Obama said they had agreed there was still time for a diplomatic solution to the standoff.

(Additional reporting by Fredrik Dahl in Vienna; Writing by Justyna Pawlak; Editing by Timothy Heritage and Andrew Roche)

One day…

June 19, 2012
*
A song as a background to the missiles landing around us… God protect Israel.
*

Interfax: Syria denies war games with Russia, China, Iran

June 19, 2012

Jerusalem Post – Breaking News.

By REUTERS
06/19/2012 17:20
MOSCOW – An adviser to Syrian President Bashar Assad has denied an Iranian media report that Syria would host Russian, Chinese and Iranian military forces for joint exercises, the Russian news agency Interfax reported on Tuesday.

An Iranian news agency, Fars, reported that 90,000 troops and hundreds of ships, tanks and warplanes from the four countries would take part in the war games on land and sea in Syria soon.

“There will be nothing like that. This is one of those (pieces of) false information that are distributed about (Syria),” Interfax quoted Bouthaina Shabaan, an adviser to Assad who was in Moscow on Tuesday, as saying.

Interfax said she was referring to a report on al-Arabiya television that was similar to the Fars article.

Playing for time on Iran – Salon.com

June 19, 2012

Playing for time on Iran – Salon.com.

( Extreme leftist article.  Important to know what they say… – JW )

How the Obama administration is stalling its way to war

Since talks with Iran over its nuclear development started up again in April, U.S. officials have repeatedly warned that Tehran will not be allowed to “play for time” in the negotiations.  In fact, it is the Obama administration that is playing for time.

Some suggest that President Obama is trying to use diplomacy to manage the nuclear issue and forestall an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear targets through the U.S. presidential election.  In reality, his administration is “buying time” for a more pernicious agenda: time for covert action to sabotage Tehran’s nuclear program; time for sanctions to set the stage for regime change in Iran; and time for the United States, its European and Sunni Arab partners, and Turkey to weaken the Islamic Republic by overthrowing the Assad government in Syria.

Vice President Biden’s national security adviser, Antony J. Blinken, hinted at this in February, explaining that the administration’s Iran policy is aimed at “buying time and continuing to move this problem into the future, and if you can do that — strange things can happen in the interim.”  Former Pentagon official Michèle Flournoy — now out of government and advising Obama’s reelection campaign — told an Israeli audience this month that, in the administration’s view, it is also important to go through the diplomatic motions before attacking Iran so as not to “undermine the legitimacy of the action.”

New York Times’ journalist David Sanger recently reported that, “from his first months in office, President Obama secretly ordered increasingly sophisticated attacks on the computer systems that run Iran’s main nuclear enrichment facilities, significantly expanding America’s first sustained use of cyberweapons” — even though he knew this “could enable other countries, terrorists, or hackers to justify” cyberattacks against the United States.  Israel — which U.S. intelligence officials say is sponsoring assassinations of Iranian scientists and other terrorist attacks in Iran — has been intimately involved in the program.

Classified State Department cables published by WikiLeaks show that, from the beginning of the Obama presidency, he and his team saw diplomacy primarily as a tool to build international support for tougher sanctions, including severe restrictions on Iranian oil exports.  And what is the aim of such sanctions?  Earlier this year, administration officials told the Washington Post that their purpose was to turn the Iranian people against their government.  If this persuades Tehran to accept U.S. demands to curtail its nuclear activities, fine; if the anger were to result in the Islamic Republic’s overthrow, many in the administration would welcome that.

Since shortly after unrest broke out in Syria, the Obama team has been calling for President Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, expressing outrage over what they routinely describe as the deaths of thousands of innocent people at the hands of Syrian security forces.  But, for more than a year, they have been focused on another aspect of the Syrian situation, calculating that Assad’s fall or removal would be a sharp blow to Tehran’s regional position — and might even spark the Islamic Republic’s demise.  That’s the real impetus behind Washington’s decision to provide “non-lethal” support to Syrian rebels attacking government forces, while refusing to back proposals for mediating the country’s internal conflicts which might save lives, but do not stipulate Assad’s departure upfront.
Meeting with Iranian oppositionists last month, State Department officials aptly summarizedObama’s Iran policy priorities this way: the “nuclear program, its impact on the security of Israel, and avenues for regime change.”  With such goals, how could his team do anything but play for time in the nuclear talks?  Two former State Department officials who worked on Iran in the early months of Obama’s presidency are onrecord confirming that the administration “never believed that diplomacy could succeed” — and was “never serious” about it either.

How Not to Talk to Iran

Simply demanding that Iran halt its nuclear activities and ratcheting up pressure when it does not comply will not, however, achieve anything for America’s position in the Middle East.  Western powers have been trying to talk Iran out of its civil nuclear program for nearly 10 years.  At no point has Tehran been willing to surrender its sovereign right to indigenous fuel cycle capabilities, including uranium enrichment.

Sanctions and military threats have only reinforced its determination.  Despite all the pressure exerted by Washington and Tel Aviv, the number of centrifuges operating in Iran has risen over the past five years from less than 1,000 to more than 9,000.  Yet Tehran has repeatedly offered, in return for recognition of its right to enrich, to accept more intrusive monitoring of — and, perhaps, negotiated limits on — its nuclear activities.

Greater transparency for recognition of rights: this is the only possible basis for a deal between Washington and Tehran.  It is precisely the approach that Iran has advanced in the current series of talks.  Rejecting it only guarantees diplomatic failure — and the further erosion of America’s standing, regionally and globally.

George W. Bush’s administration refused to accept safeguarded enrichment in Iran.  Indeed, it refused to talk at all until Tehran stopped its enrichment program altogether.  This only encouraged Iran’s nuclear development, whilepolls show that, by defying American diktats, Tehran has actually won support among regional publics for its nuclear stance.

Some highly partisan analysts claim that, in contrast to Bush, Obama was indeed ready from early in his presidency to accept the principle and reality of safeguarded enrichment in Iran.  And when his administration failed at every turn to act in a manner consistent with a willingness to accept safeguarded enrichment, the same analysts attributed this to congressional and Israeli pressure.

In truth, Obama and his team have never seriously considered enrichmentacceptable.  Instead, the president himself decided, early in his tenure, to launch unprecedented cyberattacks against Iran’s main, internationally monitored enrichment facility.  His team has resisted a more realistic approach not because a deal incorporating safeguarded enrichment would be bad for American security (it wouldn’t), but because accepting it would compel a more thoroughgoing reappraisal of the U.S. posture toward the Islamic Republic and, more broadly, of America’s faltering strategy of dominating the Middle East.

The China Option

Acknowledging Iran’s right to enrich would require acknowledging the Islamic Republic as a legitimate entity with legitimate national interests, a rising regional power not likely to subordinate its foreign policy to Washington (as, for example, U.S. administrations regularly expected of Egypt under Anwar Sadat and Hosni Mubarak).  It would mean coming to terms with the Islamic Republic in much the same way that the United States came to terms with the People’s Republic of China — another rising, independent power — in the early 1970s.

America’s Iran policy remains stuck in a delusion similar to the one that warped its China policy for two decades after China’s revolutionaries took power in 1949 — that Washington could somehow isolate, strangle, and ultimately bring down a political order created through mass mobilization and dedicated to restoring national independence after a long period of Western domination.  It didn’t work in the Chinese case and it’s not likely to in Iran either.

In one of the most consequential initiatives in American diplomatic history, President Nixon and Henry Kissinger finally accepted this reality and aligned Washington’s China policy with reality.  Unfortunately, Washington’s Iran policy has not had its Nixonian moment yet, and so successive U.S. administrations — including Obama’s — persist in folly.

The fact is: Obama could have had a nuclear deal in May 2010, when Brazil and Turkey brokered an agreement for Iran to send most of its low-enriched uranium abroad in return for new fuel for a research reactor in Tehran.  The accord met all the conditions spelled out in letters from Obama to then-Brazilian President Lula and Turkish Prime Minister ErdoÄŸan — but Obama rejected it, because it recognized Iran’s right to enrich.  (That this was the main reason was affirmed by Dennis Ross, the architect of Obama’s Iran policy, earlier this year.)  The Obama team has declined to reconsider its position since 2010 and, as a result, it is on its way to another diplomatic failure.

As Middle Eastern governments become somewhat more representative of their peoples’ concerns and preferences, they are also — as in Egypt and Iraq — becoming less inclined toward strategic deference to the United States.  This challenges Washington to do something at which it is badly out of practice: pursue genuine diplomacy with important regional states, based on real give and take and mutual accommodation of core interests.  Above all, reversing America’s decline requires rapprochement with the Islamic Republic (just as reviving its position in the early 1970s required rapprochement with the People’s Republic of China).

Instead, three and a half years after George W. Bush left office, his successor continues to insist that Iran surrender to Washington’s diktats or face attack.  By doing so, Obama is locking America into a path that is increasingly likely to result in yet another U.S.-initiated war in the Middle East during the first years of the next presidential term.  And the damage that war against Iran will inflict on America’s strategic position could make the Iraq debacle look trivial by comparison.

Flynt Leverett is professor of international affairs at Penn State. Hillary Mann Leverett is senior professorial lecturer at American University. Together, they write the Race for Iran blog.  Their new book, Going to Tehran: Why the United States Needs to Come to Terms With the Islamic Republic of Iran(Metropolitan Books), will be published in January 2013.

Against Iran, an iron wall and iron will

June 19, 2012

Israel Hayom | Against Iran, an iron wall and iron will.

Dan Margalit

Israel’s officials maintained a deafening, surprising silence on Monday. For the last three years, the prime minister, his cabinet and senior public figures could not shut up, whether their remarks were appropriate or not, and at times even detrimental. The Jewish state was seen by the world as afflicted with uncontrollable chatter. But, lo and behold, precisely on the day that nuclear talks resumed in Moscow — the final stretch in the negotiations with Iran — Jerusalem is silent. Radio silence, Internet silence, media silence.

Over the weekend, only the voice of Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe (Bogie) Ya’alon was heard. In an interview in Haaretz he said he thought diplomacy had to be given a chance, but indicated that the military option, which would follow the failure of diplomatic measures, was closer than ever. He is not the only one whose faith in sanctions has diminished.

Israel is silent because it has been asked to remain silent by the P5+1 (permanent U.N. Security Council members the U.S., U.K., Russia, China and France, plus Germany), which is currently conducting negotiations with Iran. Israel is also trying to avoid future accusations that its loose tongue sabotaged the talks. It is a strange silence, but a refreshing one.

Very little information has come out of the Moscow talks so far. Nothing can be learned from the Iranian spokesman’s announcement that Iran was disappointed — this is a well-known ploy in the Middle Easter bazaar: Always complain, always be disappointed, always make your opponent feel that he has to concede more.

Ahead of the talks, seasoned U.S. diplomat Dennis Ross offered to supply Iran with one last offer, stressing that it accept this unconditionally: The West will take care of all of the Shiite empire’s civilian nuclear needs if Iran agrees to halt uranium enrichment under international supervision. Sounds logical, but such an American offer has already been accepted by North Korea, but the moment the West fulfilled its part of the bargain, Pyongyang reverted back to its evil ways, and tried selling U.S. President Barack Obama the same lies he had already bought in the past.

There is no reason to believe the ayatollahs any more than we believe the North Koreans. Dictatorships have no respect for countries that strike compromise agreements with them. They assume that democracy is rotten, and won’t stand up for its values and rights. Therefore, democracies can be toyed with long after signing a compromise agreement.

That is not to say that there is no hope of striking a reasonable agreement with the ayatollahs. But such a deal would only stand a chance if the P5+1 come to their senses, unite, and implement Ze’ev Jabotinsky’s “Iron Wall” policy. That means, after July 1, when the next round of sanctions is supposed to take effect, a siege, not only on Iran’s oil exports and naval insurance but also, mainly, on its central bank. That would be a crippling blow to Iran’s economy, even if they develop technological alternatives to circumvent the effects of their isolation.

There is no time for negotiations. Harsher, speedier sanctions are in order, and only when they are implemented can the West approach the evil Shiite regime with offers of compromise. The current pressure is ineffective. It is just as much a part of the U.S. presidential election campaign as it is a global effort to protect democracy.

13 rockets from Gaza in recent hours; Hamas claims launches

June 19, 2012

8 rockets from Gaza in recent hours; Hamas cla… JPost – Defense.

( This rocket onslaught  is begging for a strong retaliation.  Why now?  My guess is to take pressure off Assad and distract from the failing talks in Moscow.   Hamas is taking credit to win favor with the new Islamist government in Egypt and Iran. – JW )

Update:

23:14 – No more updates for some hours.  Gotta put this carcass down.  – JW

22:35 – The four people injured by a Kassam rocket late Tuesday night were Border Police officers, The Jerusalem Post learned.

One of the officers was seriously injured when a Kassam rocket directly struck a building on a kibbutz in the Ashkelon Coast region. Three others were lightly injured. Magen David Adom paramedics evacuated the injured to Barzilai Medical Center in Ashkelon.

22:23 – Three people in the Ashkelon Coast area were injured, one moderately from a Kassam rocket attack launched by Palestinians in the Gaza Strip Tuesday night. The three were injured from shrapnel in a direct hit, a Magen David Adom spokesman said.

Magen David Adom paramedics were treating the three on the scene before transporting them to area hospitals. The other two were lightly injured.

22:14 – Palestinians fired 2 more rockets from Gaza into southern Israel on Tuesday evening.

The rockets exploded in the Sdot Negev Regional Council.

21:05 – Three rockets fell in the town of Netivot, another fell in the Sha’ar Hanegev Regional Council, and a fifth fell in the Eshkol Regional Council.

Within 21 hours, Palestinian terrorists fired 44 rockets into southern Israel. 34 fell in the Negev region and 10 exploded in the Lachish area.

No injuries or damages were reported.

20:02 – Defense Minister Ehud Barak called a meeting of the top military and intelligence echelon to discuss the escalation in the southern sector. A Defense Ministry source said that “a wide range of retaliatory actions are under review.” (Yoav Zitun)  

19:58 – Gaza terrorists fire 31 rockets at Israel since midnight:

19:45 – Palestinians in Gaza fire 22 rockets in 24 hours

19:15 – Another volley of rockets at communities in the South: nine Qassam rockets fired from Gaza into the Negev Regional Council fields. All the rockets exploded in open areas, without causing casualties or damage.

Palestinians fired three more rockets into southern Israel on Tuesday afternoon, bringing the total number of rockets fired from Gaza in recent hours to 13. – Palestinians fire total of 19 rockets at Israel in past 24 hours

By JPOST.COM STAFF, YAAKOV LAPPIN
06/19/2012 16:04
Palestinians fire a total of 14 rockets at Israel in past 24 hours; IAF strikes launching squad, at least one reported seriously injured; Hamas claims responsibility for 10 launches in latest round of violence.

Kassam rockets being fired from Gaza Strip [file]
Photo: Nikola Solic / Reuters

Palestinian terrorists in the Gaza Strip fired eight rockets into Israeli territory within the span of an hour Tuesday afternoon, with Hamas claiming responsibility for at least ten launches in the past 24 hours. The IDF said aircraft carried out a targeted strike against the launching squad responsible for the latest barrage, from which at least one person was seriously injured, according to Palestinian reports.

Including the latest barrage, which landed in open fields in the Eshkol Regional Council, Palestinian terrorist have fired 14 rockets into Israel since Monday, all of which failed to cause any damage or injuries.

Earlier, Hamas claimed responsibility for at least some of the rocket fire, claiming that it was responding to the killing of Palestinians in recent days. The IAF killed four Palestinian terrorists in the last 24 hours, at least two of whom were members of the Islamic Jihad terrorist group.

In a statement released by Hamas’s armed wing, the Izzaddin al-Kassam Brigades, the group said that it fired three mortars aimed at an IDF base in Zikim. It later claimed responsibility for 10 launches.

The announcement marks a significant departure from the Islamist group’s previous position. In recent rounds of violence along the Gaza border, Hamas has refrained from launching rockets and mortar shells itself while allowing other Palestinian terror groups to do so.

Early Tuesday morning, the Israel Air Force struck a terrorist cell that was in the process of planting an explosive device near the border of the central Gaza Strip, confirming a direct hit. Two Palestinians, both believe to be Islamic Jihad operatives, were killed.

On Monday, a terror cell operating from Sinai crossed into Israel, killing a construction worker near the border fence. A force from the Golani Brigade immediately arrived at the scene, killing two terrorists in the ensuing gunfight.

Hours after the attack, an IAF aircraft targeted a motorbike in Gaza, killing two Islamic Jihad men who were part of a terror cell responsible for recent shooting attacks along the border.

Yaakov Katz contributed to this story.

It’s the foreign policy, stupid

June 19, 2012

Israel Hayom | It’s the foreign policy, stupid.

Yaki Dayan

The ongoing bloody crisis in Syria is only becoming worse because of the West’s stuttering and the international community’s powerlessness. More than pointing to the strength of Russia, which still opposes any military intervention in Syria, it reveals the weakness of the U.S.

Washington is paralyzed, for several main reasons, in the face of the massacres carried out by the regime in Damascus. There is the fresh memory of American blood spilled in Iraq. American troops, meanwhile, are still mired in the Afghan mud despite the desire to remove them, and evacuation has been set only for 2014. These are only part of the reasons behind the helplessness exhibited by the U.S. The difficult economic problems and the unwillingness to saddle the U.S. defense budget with yet another burden, and the fact that President Barack Obama is in the midst of a contested re-election campaign, all add to the paralysis of U.S. foreign policy and create a vacuum which allows new-but-old players back in the game. This became evident when France took the lead during the Libyan crisis, and is the case once again with Russian opposition to military intervention in Syria.

The fact that the U.S. altered its policy from unilateralism from the days of President George W. Bush to one of needing as many partners as possible to manage any of Obama’s campaigns only makes the situation worse. In essence, the U.S. is bringing the Cold War back. It is a war in which the guiding principle is containment rather than victory. We have only to ask the constant question — is it good for the Jews? Is it good for Israel?

Beyond the accurate cliche that a weak U.S. translates into a weak Israel, a cold war, with its key strategy of containment, has consequences in the struggle against Iran. The justified Israeli concern is that the U.S. is ultimately liable to shift to a policy of containment against Iran. It is a policy in which the U.S. will only threaten to use force against a nuclear Iran and will not actually use it to prevent Iran from becoming nuclear.

Let us recall that the current administration has not been loath to leak information, for example on Israel’s military cooperation with Azerbaijan, or to offer assurances of massive military aid for Israel in order to prevent it, God forbid, from attacking Iran.

If the U.S. doesn’t intervene soon, it will be evident that the Syrian arena isn’t the exception to the rule; rather it is the rule itself. The U.S. must act because it’s not “just the economy, stupid” — it’s also foreign policy. Maybe what is needed is another Hollywood actor like Ronald Reagan, who will make sure to return America to its natural status as the winner of the Cold War and the leader of the Free World. For now, only in Hollywood do the good guys always win in the end.

The writer is Israel’s former consul-general in Los Angeles.