WarSclerotic

Diplomania- – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Senior official involved in Baghdad talks says U.S. is pressuring Iran because it perceives it as a real threat to world security, not because of Israeli pressure.

“There are no gaps between the U.S. and Israel in anything related to talks between Iran and the six world powers over the future of Iran’s nuclear program,” a U.S. official told journalists during a briefing in Tel Aviv.

The U.S. official, who is intimately acquainted with the P5 + 1 talks which took place in Baghdad last week, asked to remain anonymous owing to the sensitive nature of the issue.

According to the official, the U.S. government does not feel that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to pressure it over negotiations with Iran.

“We are the ones who are pressuring ourselves because we see a nuclear Iran as a real danger to global security, and not because of Israel, ” the U.S. official said.

“Even if we do not have the patience, we need to give diplomacy a chance before military action…it is still not too late, and I think that Israel thinks that it is already too late,” the official added.

On Friday, the head of the U.S. negotiation team, undersecretary of state for political affairs Wendy Sherman, arrived in Israel along with officials from the White House National Security Council working on the Iran nuclear issue – Gary Seymour and Puneet Talwar.

The American team had a three-hour meeting with Defense Minister Ehud Barak, with National Security advisor Yaakov Amidror, and a number of other senior Israeli officials who deal with the Iran issue, in order to update them on the talks in Baghdad.

According to the U.S. official, the Israeli government was the first to be updated by them on what happened in Baghdad after the talks were over. “We updated the Israelis in detail before we updated our own government,” the official said.

“This shows how much trust and security we have in our ties with Israel.”

Sherman and the rest of the American officials were meant to carry out a similar visit to update the Saudi Arabian leadership but, owing to a lack of time, Sherman updated the head of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Abdul Latif Bin Rashid Al Zayani, on the Baghdad talks over the phone.

The U.S. delegation emphasized to Israeli officials that over the course of the talks the head of the Iranian delegation Saeed Jalili requested that the six world powers – the U.S., Russia, China, France, Germany and Britain – recognize Iran’s right to enrich uranium on its own territory, but that the powers refused the Iranian request.

“In the Baghdad talks there were many divisions, but we reached some common ground over the need to focus first on uranium enrichment at a level of 20 percent, and we agreed that the nuclear issue is at the center of the talks,” the U.S. official said.

“We reached a broad enough understanding in order to carry out a further, although smaller, meeting in order to reach an agreement with Iran. We will review what happened in Baghdad and we will see how we can progress at the Moscow talks on June 18.”

Sherman and the U.S. team also stressed in their meetings in Israel that there is no intention to annul the sanctions that have already been imposed on Iran, with an emphasis on the EU oil embargo that will go into effect on June 1.

“There will be more sanctions against Iran if it does not give an answer to the concerns of the international community,” the U.S. official said.

In its talks with Israel, the U.S. delegation underlined that it is still not clear whether or not the Iranians are interested in reaching a deal. “This is the beginning, and we did not expect that there would be an agreement in Baghdad, we will see if we will close the gaps in talks in Moscow,” the U.S. official said.

Iran: It’s War in 2013, Says Former Diplomat | Featured | mideastposts.com | News Analysis.

Aaron David Miller predicts that there will be neither an agreement nor an attack on Iran in 2012.  Instead he sees a “peace process” which will create an illusion of progress then end badly.  In 2013, with the failure of negotiations, we could see a war, unless there is an “unexpected breakthrough.”

Does this dire forecast sound familiar?  In 2000, Miller was part of the group led by Dennis Ross, who met its final ignominious defeat by midwifing Ehud Barak’s “generous offer” at the Clinton Camp David summit.  The failure of that negotiation led to the violence of the Second Intifada.  Today, Miller and his colleagues are derisively called “peace processors.”  Now, he uses the term “peace process” to mean a tactic that can delay war, but not resolve conflict.

Despite his past failures in diplomacy, Miller can usually be relied upon for original and provocative analysis.  His CNN opinion piece titled, “A lull in the drift toward war with Iran” is no exception.  For Miller, the conflict with the present Iranian government defies solution since it is more about hegemony than nuclear weapons.

Miller views the Iran negotiations or “peace process” as quickly reaching an impasse.

The only problem with this approach [continued negotiations] is that its chances of success are dubious. In coming weeks and months, the negotiating process may well produce limited understandings. But it’s hard to see how these will turn into a sustainable deal that can convince the West, let alone the Israelis, that Iran has given up its quest for nukes.

Yes, Miller believes Iran will never relinquish its quest to achieve nuclear capability, but not because it wants to attack Israel.  I find this pessimism a bit odd from a career diplomat, especially since we know so little about the extent of the Iranian nuclear weapons program, past, present and future.

Iran wants a nuclear capacity. Outside of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, four nations possess nukes: Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea. All are fundamentally insecure and perceive nukes as a core advantage in their security and foreign policy theology.

Iran is insecure, but it believes it is profoundly entitled. This mix of vulnerability and grandiosity is a bad combination. The Iranian regime wants the bomb, not primarily to have the option of attacking Israel, a possible fringe benefit, but as a hedge against regime change and as a prestige weapon in its quest for regional power and influence. Had the Shah not been turned out by the 1979 revolution, Iran would already have nukes.

Iran fashions itself a great power, and great powers believe they need the ultimate weapon. Iran’s nuclear program is too advanced, too entrenched, too redundant and too secretive to be stopped permanently, even by military attack. To do so, you’d need to change the regime.

The flip side of Iranian insecurity and hegemonic aspirations are the very real threats it faces from the U.S.

America wants an end to its [Iran’s] repression and brutality, freedom for the Iranian people and Iran’s regional ambitions curtailed.

There’s almost no issue on which Washington and Tehran agree, from support for Hamas and Hezbollah, to backing the Assads, to Iranian terrorism, to support for Shia insurgents, to Iraq and to Israel and the Palestinians. Given the level of suspicion and mistrust, the odds of finding a sustainable modus vivendi soon, particularly against the backdrop of the regime change issue, are slim to none.

As long as the regime is convinced that America wants it replaced and Iran’s regional ambitions muzzled, Iran will continue its quest for nukes. Indeed, the nuclear issue can’t be separated from the issue of regime insecurity. It’s emblematic of Iran’s hopes and fears.

Finally, you have to talk about Israel and its influence on sanctions and its much threatened military option.  I think Miller lets Israel off the hook way too easily, since he writes only about U.S. hegemonic goals and ignores Israel’s.  However, when you realize that Yitzhak Rabin was a familiar guest in Miller’s Zionist Cleveland  home when he was a child, this is not surprising.

Israeli hopes and fears factor centrally into the equation too. We wouldn’t have the tough sanctions we do if it weren’t for President Obama’s and the Europeans’ fear of an Israeli strike.

But the Iranian regime won’t stop, and will inch closer to a breakout capacity to produce a weapon. And the Israelis will then have to decide whether to launch a military strike or bring enough pressure on the Obama administration to do so, even if it only means a setback of a year or two [in Iran’s nuclear program].

Iran nuclear talks a \’complete failure,\’ says Iranian diplomat – CSMonitor.com.

Both sides spoke of ‘some common ground’ that will drive the next round of Iran nuclear talks set for mid-June in Moscow. Yet a chasm of mismatched expectations widened in Baghdad.

By Scott Peterson, Staff writer / May 25, 2012

‘Iran has enough uranium for 5 b… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

Photo: REUTERS

Netanyahu, Barak refuse to see US official with negative report on Baghdad talks.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 26, 2012, 10:25 AM (GMT+02:00)

State’s Wendy Sherman, senior US delegate to world power talks with Iran

The rupture between the US and Israel over Iran’s nuclear program widened further Friday, May 25  when Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak decided not to be available to hear the briefing brought to Jerusalem from Baghdad by Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman who headed the US delegation to the Six Power talks. The report she delivered to National Security Adviser Yaakov Amidror and Foreign Ministry Director-General Rafi Barak was that no progress had been achieved in Baghdad due to Iran’s refusal to budge on its “right” to enrich uranium at low (3.5-5 percent) or high (20 percent) levels or shut down the Fordo nuclear plant near Qom.
Although the participants agreed to reconvene in Moscow in three weeks, the Iranian delegation stressed there would be no progress until the US and the other five world powers (Britain, France, Russia, Germany and China) recognized Iran’s absolute “right” as a signatory of the Non-Proliferation Treaty to enrich uranium.

Meanwhile, every day spent on diplomacy is thoroughly exploited by Iran to zip ahead with its nuclear plans. The Vienna-based UN nuclear watchdog (IAEA)’s quarterly report released Friday reveals that since February Iran almost doubled its stockpile of more highly enriched uranium which is close to weapons grade from 73.4 to 145 kilograms.
The centrifuges at the Fordo facility, built into the side of a mountain, rose to over 500 from 300 in the last report.

Using the IAEA figures, debkafile calculates that if Fordo goes on producing 23.9 kilograms of 20-percent enriched uranium per month, Iran will by the end of December have accumulated 336 kilograms of near-weapons quality uranium.
The IAEA also reported that Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to less than 5 per cent grew to 6,232 kilograms from 5,451 reported in February.

Its inspectors recorded “the presence of particles” of 27 per cent-enriched uranium at Fordo. Iran maintained the particles were a result of “technical reasons beyond the operator’s control.”

The IAEA report was released a day after talks between Tehran and the six powers ended without progress.
Iran’s senior delegate Saeed Jalili declared that his government would never accept the Washington-ruled distinction between two categories of nations – one permitted and the other forbidden to enrich uranium. He claimed this was against international treaties.

Friday, the Washington Post quoted Mohammad Hoseyn Moussavian of Princeton University as revealing that in 2004, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, “I would resign if for any reason Iran is deprived of its rights to enrichment.”
Moussavian is presented as an Iranian academic visiting Princeton to lecture and write a book on the Iranian nuclear issue. debkafile reveals that he was the contact man in one of the direct, back-channel negotiations taking place in Paris between the White House and Khamenei. His words therefore were intended to carry weight as a reminder to Obama that the supreme leader, like the US president, intended to come out of their dialogue strengthened – not undermined. And therefore, for both their sakes, Washington must endorse Iran’s “right to enrichment.”
Tehran presented a second ultimatum for the nuclear talks to continue: phased sanctions relief, starting with the postponement of the European Union’s oil embargo scheduled for July 1 until the end of negotiations and the reconnection of Iranian banks to the SWIFT international money transfer system.
The gap between Israel and the Obama administration widened in the course of Washington’s direct, secret give-and-take with Tehran. In early April, Defense Minister Barak reported that Israel offered some compromise on the enrichment issue. debkafile disclosed at the time that Israel had informed Washington of its approval of a “1,000 formula.” Iran would be permitted to activate 1,000 centrifuges for enrichment and keep 1,000 kilograms of 3.5-per cent enriched uranium.
The Netanyahu government backtracked when this concession was used by US officials as a lever for further accommodations with Iran.
The direct US-Iran channel and the second round of Six Power talks with Iran have clearly left the standoff over Iran’s nuclear solidly in place: Iran stands by its right to enrich uranium up to weapons grade, the US stands by diplomacy, however hopeless, for resolving the controversy, while Israel demands a time limit for negotiations. Its military option was put back on the table for so long as Iran’s enrichment centrifuges continue spinning at top speed.

Russian, North Korean arms ships to dock in Syria as bloody crackdown continues – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Syrian opposition officials tell Haaretz that arms deliveries to Syria’s Assad regime are funded by Iran.

Analysts play down higher-grade uranium find in Iran.

Saturday, 26 May 2012

Analysts say that the higher-grade uranium found by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at Iran’s Fordo site near Qom is due to a technical glitch. (File Photo)

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Iran’s hard bargain should not result in U.S. softening – The Washington Post.

By Editorial Board, Saturday, May 26, 2:35 AM

© The Washington Post Company

Time’s running out.

Recent talks in Baghdad between Iran and the P5+1 (the United States, Britain, Germany, France, Russia and China) about Iran’s nuclear program resulted in a defeat for the West and a victory for Iran.

The West was defeated because the talks did nothing to slow down or stop Iran’s nuclear weapons development program, did nothing to deter the Iranian’s from proceeding full speed ahead to develop nuclear weapons for use against Israel, the United States, Europe and their Islamic neighbors in the Middle East, which is of course exactly what they’re doing.

Iran was victorious because it because its strategy of stringing the West along and buying time through duplicity and meaningless negotiations until it successfully develops and possesses nuclear weapons worked yet again.

The West’s defeat and Iran’s victory was a foregone conclusion. For religious and ideological reasons Iran is totally committed to developing and possessing nuclear weapons and totally committed to using them as well, first against Israel, then against the United States and then against the others. Total commitment means total commitment. Short of destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities militarily, there is absolutely nothing the West can do to keep Iran from becoming a nuclear power, not the imposition of more sanctions, not oil embargoes, not more diplomacy, not more meetings, not more condemnation and approbation, nothing.

Iran knows this and the West doesn’t, which is why Iran has been successful in stringing the West along. Iran has manipulated and deceived the West from the beginning and the West in its ignorance, naivete’ and cowardice has been laboring under delusions and making fundamental mistakes from the start.

Israelis on the other hand have no illusions and are fully aware that a nuclear Iran means a nuclear attack on Israel. They know perfectly well that the minute the Iranians become a nuclear power they will launch an attack against Israel in order to wipe the country off the map, to remove it from the face of the earth. They also know that they will have to use their military to keep nuclear weapons out of the Iranians hands because no one else will use theirs and military means are the only thing which will work.

They also know that time is running out and that Iran is much closer to developing and possessing nuclear weapons than the West believes. Just recently for example the International Atomic Energy Agency discovered that Iran is refining uranium at a rate up to 27 per cent…20 per cent is the rate that it can easily and quickly be turned into weapons grade material and the West was taken by surprise when the IAEA made the discovery because it didn’t think Iran had reached that level yet, never mind a level of 27 per cent.

The West has grossly underestimated Iran’s will, progress and intentions all along and this is just the latest example.

Time’s running out indeed.

Iran talks end in harsh lesson for west – FT Specials News – IBNLive.

Over the past few weeks, there has been growing optimism in western capitals that Iran might be forced into a compromise over its nuclear programme and avoid a war with Israel and the US.

However, after two days of anguished talks this week between Iran and world powers in Baghdad, such hopes were doused in a very cold dose of reality.

As Israel and the US make contingency plans for a possible strike, the six powers – the US, EU, UK, France, Germany, Russia and China – put a proposal to Iran that would have seen Tehran freeze its production of more highly enriched uranium in return for a package of inducements from the US and EU, such as providing parts for Iranian civil aircraft.

But after often fraught bargaining in Baghdad, diplomats left declaring they had made no progress at all. “It’s been a difficult few days,” said a European diplomat in Baghdad. “After our first meeting in Istanbul with Iran a few weeks ago, we were euphoric. Now we’re a lot more realistic about just how difficult this negotiation is.”

The lack of success in the Iraqi capital does not signal the end of the process. The talks between Iran and the international powers still have a few rounds left before the end of this year, when Israel and the US must decide on military action.

There was also the occasional indication in Baghdad that Iran is softening its approach to the US. On one occasion, Saeed Jalili, Iran’s chief negotiator, had a brief conversation with Wendy Sherman, the US chief diplomat at the talks. “That’s something he hasn’t been willing to do before,” said a diplomat. “You can call it a semi-brush-by.”

That said, western diplomats left Baghdad under no illusion about how difficult it will be to strike a deal with Iran this year.

Some experts say it would have been surprising if Iran had accepted the package in Baghdad. Acquiring airline parts is a minor concession compared with what Iran is seeking in this negotiation, such as the scaling back of punitive sanctions and securing international acceptance of its right to uranium enrichment.

Besides, Tehran has room for manoeuvre, particularly because the US is determined that talks must not break down before its presidential election.

Washington is desperate to stop Israel carrying out an attack before November – an event that would drag the US into war and also destabilise President Barack Obama’s chances of re-election. “As a result, Jalili could come to the talks retaining his maximalist bargaining position that Iran will give away nothing unless sanctions are reversed,” said a diplomat.

Some diplomats leaving Baghdad said a positive feature of the meetings was that Iran engaged in discussion of its nuclear programme, something it has not done before. “In [the April meeting in] Istanbul, they didn’t want to discuss anything,” said a diplomat. “In Baghdad, they did get into details.”

However, what is also clear is that the negotiations will get a great deal harder if there is no clear progress at the next meeting in Moscow on June 18. The meeting comes just before US and EU energy and banking sanctions take full effect on July 1, after which a breakthrough will be much more difficult.

At the same time, failure at Moscow will force Mr Obama to ratchet up the rhetoric against the regime in order to counter Republican accusations that he is being strung along by Iranian prevarication.

And while negotiators await the outcome of the Moscow talks, contingency planning for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is intensifying in the US and Israel.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2012