WarSclerotic

DEBKA.

Real US military preparations for a strike on Iran are proceeding apace. DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military sources report a second F-22 Raptor squadron will be heading to the Gulf in the coming days. If not for logistical delays, such as getting hangars ready for the incoming planes and crews, they would have landed in the third or fourth week of April.
Those preparations broke surface with the Aviation Week disclosure of the USAF’s deployment of the first batch of its premier penetrating strike fighter, the F-22 Raptor, to a United Arab Emirates base across the Gulf from Iran.
debkafile’s military sources added that the Raptors from the 302^nd Fighter Squadron’s Joint Elmendorf-Richardson Base in Alaska were destined for the Al Dhafra Air Base (click on the attached map).
Israel has complained to Washington that its war preparations are impaired by US officials drumming up aspersions on Israel’s operational competence for attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities. The Obama administration has denied any part in this campaign. It turned out this week that the denials were correct and the campaign was being run by US army and intelligence elements who oppose a war on Iran. This time they hit America’s own preparations by planting a prominent report in the Los Angeles Times claiming that “some of the nation’s top aviators are refusing to fly the radar-evading F-22 Raptor, a fighter jet with ongoing problems with the oxygen systems that have plagued the fleet for four years.”
The USAF’s reply was that, without revealing how many of its 200 F-22 pilots stationed at seven military bases across the country declined their assignment orders, current and former Air Force officials called it “an extremely rare occurrence.”

Much more than a cautionary military demonstration of might

Someone in the military intelligence community was evidently signaling Iran that the F-22s poised opposite the Strait of Hormuz and Revolutionary Guards facilities were not all that threatening because oxygen system problems occurred at top radar-evading altitudes and the pilots were refusing to fly them.
All the same, our military sources report, the second batch of F-22 Raptors will soon be arriving in the Gulf.
It is clear that Obama administration is not just engaged in a demonstration of military might for the purpose of cowing Iran into giving up its nuclear weapons ambitions. For this, a far smaller exhibition of military might would have served. There was no need to shove two squadrons of premier strike fighters plus two aircraft carriers, the USS Enterprise and Abraham Lincoln and their strike groups under Iran’s nose.
The present scale of the US military buildup is well beyond a cautionary demonstration. It means that behind the hype about an approaching breakthrough in the nuclear negotiations with Tehran, Washington is not at all sure the Iranians will reach the finishing line in good faith and not come up with a last-minute pretext for going back on its assurances. If that happened, the Obama administration would be left with no recourse other than military action for making good on its pledge to prevent Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon.
Therefore, as one source put it, while back-channel US-Iran diplomacy is the carrot, the stick is held ready to strike if Iran fails to come up to scratch.

US strength massed on two strategic islands

The Raptors and the carriers are just part of the concentration of US strength around the Islamic Republic, DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military sources report. The bulk of its military manpower is massed ready for an offensive on two islands, Masirah in the Gulf of Oman at the southern exit of the Strait of Hormuz and Yemeni Socotra in the Gulf of Aden, near where it connects to the Indian Ocean. (See special maps attached to this article.)
Masirah off the east coast of Oman, runs 95 km long from north to south and between 12 and 14 km broad, with an area of about 649 km², and an estimated population of 12,000 in 12 villages concentrated mainly in the north of the island. Most of the island’s interior is uninhabited. It is accessible only by a small ferry for cars and Omani Air Force Hercules (RAFO) flights.
Socotra is a small archipelago of four islands in the Indian Ocean which is named for the largest. The chain lies some 240 kilometers (150 mi) east of the Horn of Africa and 380 kilometers (240 mi) south of the Arabian Peninsula.
Our sources learn that, five months ago, President Barack Obama secretly ordered the US Air Force, Navy and Marines to pile up strength on the two strategic islands of Masirah and Socotra.

Tehran and Moscow are worried

On Socotra they occupied the facilities the US has been constructing there since 2010: giant air and naval bases with facilities for submarines, intelligence command centers and take-off pads for stealth drones. Their existence is so secret that they do not appear in any catalogue of US military strongholds in the region.
On Masirah, American forces are accommodated in Camp Justice, a huge air and ground facility.
The islands are links in a chain of strategic US military bases in the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf, also to be found at Jebel Ali and Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates; Arifjan in Kuwait; and Al Udeid in Qatar. They are all within easy flying distances from Iran.
As we shall see in the next item, the US military preparations for attacking Iran are being taken very seriously not just in Tehran but also in Moscow.

German FM: World won’t let Iran get nuke… JPost – International.

By YONAH BOB

05/04/2012 12:18

“We will continue to stand by Israel’s side,” and “we will not remain silent when Israel is threatened,” Westerwelle tells audience.

Photo: Reuters

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said Thursday that the global community will prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Westerwelle was speaking to the Global Forum of the American Jewish Committee in Washington.

“The current Iranian nuclear program represents an enormous danger not only to Israel but to the region as a whole,” Westerwelle told the group.

“We cannot and will not accept an Iranian nuclear weapon… We need substantive and verifiable guarantees that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapon,” he said.

Most western countries believe Iran is seeking to produce a nuclear weapon, using a peaceful civilian energy program as cover.

In contrast to Israeli concerns that talks with Iran will go nowhere and only serve to buy Iran more time to develop its weapons program, the German foreign minister emphasized that “our unity and our resolve are showing results.”

Directly speaking to Israeli concerns, he made clear that “our patience is limited. We will not accept playing for time. We will not accept talks for the sake of talks.”

Notably, Westerwelle remarked that “the Iranian regime continues to threaten Israel with annihilation,” a point which many international leaders, even those against Iran pursuing nuclear weapons, avoid not wanting to encourage the message of an immediate crisis or need for military action.

“I want you to know that we will continue to stand by Israel’s side,” he told the audience at the American Jewish Committee’s Global Forum. “We will not remain silent when Israel is threatened or its legitimacy called into question. We will stand up whenever Israel is unfairly singled out in multilateral fora. And we will denounce any incitement against the State of Israel and its right to exist.”

Israel has refused to rule out a preemptive strike to set back or disable Iran’s nuclear facilities. The last week showed an unusually public debate between current government officials and former heads of the various arms of Israel’s security establishment over the advisability of such a preemptive strike.

The “P5+1 group,” the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany, met with Iran in Istanbul last month after over a year of a stalemate in negotiations. A further meeting is scheduled for Baghdad on May 23.

Westerwelle also addressed Israel’s relations with many of its Arab neighbors and the currently stalled peace process.

He stated that Germany’s vision was of two states for two peoples “based on the 1967 lines with agreed swaps.” Westerwelle continued that the “two-state-solution is in Israel’s own best interest to protect and strengthen the Jewish and democratic character” of the state.

The German foreign minister said he agreed with President Shimon Peres who recently called Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas a “partner for peace.”

He also hailed the continued stability of the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan, which is how Israel has enjoyed “peace and security with both of them for the past decades.” He added that everything possible must be done to preserve these treaties.

Two weeks ago, Westerwelle cautioned Egypt not to blow the recent gas crisis between Israel and Egypt out of proportion and to ensure that the dispute is contained.

Israel’s deep-sea dominance – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: Our foes have no answer for Israel’s submarines, which guarantee regional stability

Guy Bechor

Quietly, underwater, Israelis turning into a maritime power like the United States and Russia, with an armada of advanced submarines. Germany recently agreed to provide Israel with a sixth Dolphin submarine; the Jewish state already has three. Two more will be arriving this and next year, and then the sixth one will come.

Germany also agreed to subsidize the sixth submarine, as it did with the previous ones. The first two were given to Israel for free; the Germans paid for half of the third one, and will pay for one third of the next three. In an era where the Germans are cutting back their own military because of economic hardship, this is not a trivial matter.

Germany may later sell Israel more advanced submarines of this type, and Israel is indeed interested in building a fleet of 10 submarines, which will secure its power for dozens of years to come.

The cost of every submarine is some $500M dollars, but the price may rise to $850M. Israel presented special demands for its subs and installed advanced, secret systems in them. The sixth submarine will be the most advanced and capable of staying underwater the longest.

IDF submarine in Haifa (Photo: IDF Spokesman’s Office)

The IDF’s Navy is undergoing a significant conceptual change: From serving as a border guard (which is also an important duty,) it’s shifting into Israel’s and the IDF’s strategic arm, no less so than the Air Force. Our submarines can reach any area of the world, and most certainly in this region, and our enemies do not have a reasonable response for the time being.

Best investment in peace

No regional state can afford to purchase such weapons. A few years ago it was reported that the Egyptians were also interested in acquiring Dolphin submarines from Germany. Egypt’s subs are outdated, and Cairo became anxious because of Israel’s dominance in deep water, which the Egyptians have no response for. However, negotiations did not advance, and today Cairo’s military regime has no money for such subs.

Meanwhile, the Iranians are monitoring with concern the German reports about the provision of three more subs to Israel, knowing Tehran has no response for this either. In order to show they possess an alternative, Iran’s outdated subs have been recently traveling to the Red Sea as provocation vis-à-vis the long-range Israeli presence. This is also the reason why an Iranian vessel recently crossed through the Suez Cannel en route to the Mediterranean: In order to show that Iranis a superpower after all.

Sun Tzu, who wrote The Art of War, already taught us how to produce deterrence: If the enemy estimates that it will suffer grave damage should it attack you, it will curb itself. And this is the significance of the submarines: Iran could theoretically strike Israel with missiles, yet it knows, according to foreign reports, that Tehran may pay an existential price. Even if Israel’s offensive and defensive capabilities are destroyed, the blow against Iran shall arrive from the sea – and it will most certainly arrive.

If Iran realizes that it will have to pay a terrible price, it won’t attack. And indeed, global media outlets are reporting that an Israeli submarine constantly sails near Iran’s shores. This is deterrence. Once Israel will possess six submarines, and possible more, it will signify Israeli control over a huge area.

While submarines are a powerful weapon of war, Israel’s subs are in fact the surest guarantee for maintaining Mideastern stability and order. The subs guarantee that the risk of war will decline, rather than grow. With such power, Israel is the guardian of the sea and of stability in our region, and this is the best investment in regional peace.

Israeli elections must become a referendum on Iran – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Netanyahu is playing three-dimensional chess on a rickety board, without public support.

By Ari Shavit Tags: Opinion

Israel Hayom | The foggiest war.

World powers expect concrete ste… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

By REUTERS

05/03/2012 13:45

The 5 key UNSC members also press Tehran to agree with UN nuclear watchdog on access to “relevant sites and information”; call on N. Korea to refrain from new nuke tests.

Photo: REUTERS

The five permanent members of the UN Security Council put pressure on Iran on Thursday to allay international concern about its nuclear program, and said they expected talks with Tehran to lead to concrete steps toward a negotiated solution.

In a joint statement issued at a nuclear meeting in Vienna, the United States, France, Russia, China and Britain pressed Tehran to agree urgently with the UN nuclear watchdog on access to “relevant sites and information.”

Western diplomats say Iran appears to be stonewalling a request by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for access to a key military site, Parchin, where it believes military-related nuclear research may have taken place.

Iran and major powers resumed talks in April in Istanbul after more than a year – a chance to ease growing tension and help to avert the threat of a new Middle East war – and they will meet again on May 23 in Baghdad.

Thursday’s statement by the five powers – which together with Germany are involved in nuclear talks with Iran – said they were seeking a “sustained process of serious dialogue,” where both sides can take urgent practical steps to build confidence.

“We expect that subsequent meetings … will lead to concrete steps toward a comprehensive negotiated solution which restores international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of the Iranian nuclear program,” it added.

The five permanent members also called on North Korea to refrain from any new nuclear tests.

North Korea, which tested plutonium devices in 2006 and 2009, has almost completed preparations for a third nuclear test, a senior source with close ties to Pyongyang and Beijing told Reuters last month.

“We … call on (North Korea) to refrain from further actions which may cause grave security concerns in the region, including any nuclear tests,” said in the joint statement.

Six army battalions called up under emergency orders to meet growing threat on Egypt, Syria borders | The Times of Israel.

Knesset approves IDF request to call up a further 16 battalions if needed

Reserve soldiers conduct a training exercise (photo credit: Matanya Tausig/Flash90)

An IDF spokesperson said intelligence assessments called for the deployment of more soldiers.

According to 2008′s Reserve Duty Law, combat soldiers can be called for active reserve duty once every three years, and for short training sessions during the other two. Rising tensions between Israel and Egypt and the ongoing unrest in Syria caused the army to ask the Knesset for special permission to call up more soldiers, more often.

The Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee approved the request recently, enabling the IDF to summon up to 22 battalions for active duty for the second time in three years. Already, the army has called up six of them.

“This signifies that the IDF regards the Egyptian and Syrian borders as the potential source of a greater threat than in the past,” the former deputy chief of staff, Dan Harel, said on Wednesday night.

“The army needs a better ‘answer’ than in the past to the threat,” he said, citing Egypt’s deteriorating control over the Sinai, marked by an upsurge in Bedouin smuggling of weapons and other goods. He also spoke of the growing threat of terrorism from Sinai, as exemplified by an infiltration last August in which eight Israelis were killed.

The Syrian situation was also highly combustible, Harel said, “and it could explode at any moment… and pose a direct challenge to us.”

Maariv said the army had to decide whether to cancel training sessions for enlisted soldiers or to summon additional reserve units, and it chose the latter; canceling training would mean soldiers would not be prepared in the case of an all-out war.

The IDF spokesperson said all the letters summoning soldiers for reserve duty were sent after the IDF received the approval of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee for the larger call-up.

One of the reservists summoned told Maariv he hadn’t expected his call-up letter until next year. Leaving home for more than three weeks is something you have to prepare for, he noted.

Activists from the Reserve Soldiers Forum said they were disappointed time and again by the way the IDF treated its reserve soldiers. The law was supposed to help reservists, but it has been repeatedly bypassed and ignored, they said. “At the end, all that will remain of the law will be its title.”

Pentagon Encircles Iran: Claims Victory Would Take 3 Weeks.

May 2, 2012

As the US beefs up its military presence in the Persian Gulf region, Pentagon strategists estimate that they would need less than a month to defeat Iranian forces should a military conflict take place.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) believes it can destroy or significantly degrade Iran’s conventional armed forces in about three weeks using air and sea strikes, a defense source told The Washington Post.

“We plan for any eventuality we can and provide options to the president,” Army Lt. Col. T.G. Taylor, a spokesman at CENTCOM told the newspaper. “We take our guidance from the secretary of defense and from our civilian bosses in [Washington] DC. So any kind of guidance they give us, that’s what we go off of [sic].”

The American military has been building up its presence in the region amid rising tension in the area.

The US Navy currently has two aircraft carriers deployed near Iran and is upgrading mine-detection and removal capabilities.

The US Air Force recently dispatched a number of F-22 Raptor strike fighters to a base in the United Arab Emirates. The move caused backlash from Tehran, which said Wednesday it threatened regional stability.

Deploying a “floating base” in the Persian Gulf – a converted transport ship that would serve as a semi-stationary base of operations for the US military – is also on the table. USS Ponce is expected to host mine-sweeping helicopters, speed boats and probably commando teams.

The Pentagon has also intensified training of elite troops of its allies in the region. The members of the Joint Special Operations Task Force-Gulf Cooperation Council commando team, who serve as instructors, may be ordered to go into the field as well, should such a need arise.

The measures are taken as contingency for possible attack by Iran on US troops or blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, the vital oil transit route, the US says.

CENTCOM says there are about 125,000 US troops in close proximity to Iran. The majority of them – 90,000 – are deployed in or around Afghanistan. Some 20,000 soldiers are ashore elsewhere in the Near East region; and a variable 15,000 to 20,000 serve on naval vessels.
Oil battlefront

The military threat is just part of the mounting pressure on Tehran. Washington says it would use force only as a measure of last resort and is instead focusing on economic pressure.

On Tuesday, US President Barack Obama signed an order giving the Treasury Department more power to impose financial sanctions against those trading with Iran.

“Treasury now has the capability to publicly identify foreign individuals and entities that have engaged in these evasive and deceptive activities, and generally bar access to the US financial and commercial systems,” the department said in a statement.

The US and the EU have issued a ban on buying Iran-produced crude in a bid to cripple the country’s export-dependent economy. Part of this effort involves sanctions against companies and institutions engaged in the oil trade with Iran financially. They are banks transferring payment for the crude or firms insuring tankers transporting Iranian oil.

The Iranian oil industry is not suffering from sanctions alone. The country’s Oil Ministry reported last week that it had finally managed to contain a cyber attack on the industry’s facilities.

“The software attack has been fully contained and controlled with the help of experts three days after it was hit,” Iran’s deputy oil minister for engineering affairs, Hamdollah Mohammadnejad, told the state-run Mehr news agency.

In 2010 a malicious computer worm called Stuxnet damaged computer software at Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities. Some computer security experts said the malware was the work of a highly-professional hacker team, which was probably provided with know-how by US or Israeli governments.

Western countries and Israel suspect Iran of trying to build a nuclear bomb and are pressuring it to stop enrichment of uranium. Tehran insists it is pursuing a civilian nuclear power program only, which it is entitled to do as a sovereign state.

The row has escalated last year after the publication of a controversial report by UN’s nuclear watchdog, which Iran’s opponents used to justify issuing more sanctions.

IDF Conducts ‘Lebanon Attack’ Drill – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Lebanon border

Flash 90

IDF forces carried out a series of contingency maneuvers along the Blue Line on Tuesday to prepare for a possible attack as it constructs a 6-meter high separation wall between Israel and Lebanon.

According to Lebanese sources, tens of Israeli soldiers were deployed in the defacto border region and were visible from the border town of Kfar Kila.

The troops – said to number in the “tens” – deployed using Hummers and asked the construction company to evacuate the area for practice.

Villagers in Kfar Kila told the Lebanon Daily Star that IDF soldiers were seen transferring pretend wounded army personnel to an ambulance as part of an emergency scenario.

Other soldiers were said to have taken up positions at different points along the fence.

Israel notified the UN Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) earlier Tuesday of the maneuvers, which in turn notified the Lebanese Army so as to avoid unnecessary alarm.

The Lebanese Army deployed a similar sized force to observe after informing UNIFIL that it expected the IDF not to cross the Blue Line during the construction process.

Israel began construction of the separation wall between Lebanon and the Jewish state on Monday. The wire fence currently in use will eventually be replaced with 4-meter-high concrete blocks topped by 2-meters of fencing and barbed wire.

Jerusalem says the wall, which will stretch from the former Jidar al-Tayyib Gate to the Fatima Gate crossing, is intended to protect residents of the border town of Metula, which faces Kfar Kila.

Lebanese officers were given topographical maps to follow the construction as it happened and ensure that it met the prearranged conditions.

Members of the UN Disengagement Observer Force worked with the Israeli army to ensure that the wall was erected within Israeli territory.

The Blue Line serves as a defacto border between Israel and Lebanon based on a United Nations survey endorced by UN Security Council Resolution 425.

On 25 May 2000, following Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon, Jerusalem notified the Secretary-General that Israel had redeployed its forces in compliance with the resolution.

The decision to follow the UN recommendation came after Beirut declined to participate in negotiations aimed at formally demarcating its border with Israel.

Nonetheless, the Blue Line closely follows the internationally recognized boundaries of Lebanon from 1949, but does differ by some 475 meters along half a dozen stretches.

Between 1950 and 1975 teams of Israeli and Lebanese surveyors did complete a topographical survey of approximately 50% of the border between the two nations, but no formal treaty was ever signed.

Meanwhile, Hizbullah members have placed pictures of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad along the border road connecting Fatima Gate to Adaysseh.

Surprise Copter Drill Simulates Raid near Tel Aviv – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Black Hawk helicopter

Israel news photo: IDF spokesmen

Air Force helicopter pilots staged a surprise drill Tuesday in a simulated attack on its base near Tel Aviv. “As far as we’re concerned a war broke out today,” said Black Hawk squadron commander Major “Amir.”

The exercise was conducted to increase preparedness for a rocket attack on the Air Force’s Palmachim base, near Rishon LeTzion, located on the southern edge of metropolitan Tel Aviv.

Israeli intelligence officials have frequently stated that Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists in Gaza possess medium-range missiles that can hit Tel Aviv. Missiles previously have struck as far as the area of Yavne, located less than five miles from Rishon LeTzion.

“The main emphasis today is on cooperation between the different forces stationed at the air base, especially between helicopters and UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles),” said the squadron commander.

Combat helicopter pilots were confronted with surprise attacks and more. “Upon taking off the pilots did not know where they would land,” explained Lt. Col. “N.”

“We were sitting at the station and were suddenly surprised,” said Cpl. Tzachi, one of the pilots that participated in the drill. “Exercises like this one are important and should be taken seriously.”