WarSclerotic

Netanyahu power play could remake Mideast – The Globe and Mail.

In the name of stability, Benjamin Netanyahu has made himself the most powerful Prime Minister in Israeli history – 94 of the Knesset’s 120 members are swearing loyalty to him – and with only 26 members in the parliamentary opposition, Mr. Netanyahu can govern any way he wishes, including launching a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities or even shaping a peace with the Palestinians.

While some Israelis, such as Knesset Speaker Reuven Rivlin, a member of Mr. Netanyahu’s own Likud party, worry that the imbalance between government and opposition risks the degeneration of the parliamentary system, most Israelis simply marvelled Tuesday at the arrangement arrived at in the early hours of the morning that has dramatically rearranged the country’s politics.

Just two days after he announced he was calling for elections to be held in September, 13 months before the end of his electoral mandate, Mr. Netanyahu decided to accept a plan put forward by Defence Minister Ehud Barak and welcomed into his right-of-centre government Shaul Mofaz, the newly elected leader of Kadima and his party’s 28 seats.

Added to Likud’s 27 seats, and the 39 other members of the coalition that have governed the country since 2009, Mr. Netanyahu couldn’t suppress a Cheshire Cat-like smile as he announced his 94-seat supermajority.

“The man has given himself enormous power,” said Dani Dayan, head of the Israeli settlers organization Yesha. Mr. Dayan was speaking at an emergency meeting of settler leaders Tuesday evening in Beit El, a settlement north of Jerusalem. “It remains to be seen how he wields this power,” he said, concerned that the Prime Minister may turn his back on them.

It is believed that Mr. Netanyahu was shaken Sunday night by the right-wing resistance he encountered at a Likud party conference. Opponents, such as Danny Danon, a staunchly pro-settlement Likud member of Knesset, had refused the Prime Minister’s request to chair the party convention and heckled the leader throughout his speech.

Mr. Netanyahu apparently left the convention hall and immediately contacted Mr. Barak, as well as a former chief of staff in the Prime Minister’s Office, and directed them to negotiate with Mr. Mofaz.

The result was a 13-point document that set out the terms under which Mr. Mofaz and Kadima would become part of the government.

Among other things, Mr. Mofaz will serve as the deputy prime minister in the government and will stand in for Mr. Netanyahu whenever the Prime Minister is absent. He will also be a member of the powerful security cabinet.

As well, the government will proceed quickly with abolishing the practice of giving military exemptions to tens of thousands of Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) men; with addressing the age-old issue of changing the electoral system to make it more difficult for tiny parties to be elected; and even with reopening the peace process with Palestinian leaders.

“In effect,” said Hanan Crystal, a political commentator for Israel Radio, “[Mr. Netanyahu] is telling [Mr.] Danon and others: ‘The Likud is not a nationalist-religious party, it’s a centralist-liberal party.’”

With such a wide base and so many parties to the left of him as well as to the right, Mr. Netanyahu can govern without fear that a walkout by any of the parties on either side would topple his government.

When it comes to Iran, the record shows that Mr. Mofaz has been hawkish against Iran when he served in the governments of Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert, and somewhat dovish when he’s been in opposition.

Most recently, Mr. Mofaz, who was born in Tehran, said Israel should not act alone in any action against Iran.

As a former chief of staff of the Israel Defence Forces, and a former minister of defence under Mr. Sharon, the Kadima leader has substantial credibility in this matter.

With him in the coalition, the Prime Minister has several options. If he wants to attack Iran, Mr. Mofaz may be persuaded to support him; if he doesn’t want to attack, then Mr. Mofaz may serve as a fig leaf, explaining why Mr. Netanyahu was held back from attacking by his deputy prime minister.

Right-wing elements of the Likud party were highly critical of the move to broaden the government.

Mr. Danon said he voted against the arrangement in the party caucus meeting that took place around 2:30 Tuesday morning. “This will perpetuate keeping [Ehud] Barak as Defence Minister for another year and a half, and will bring in a left-wing party called Kadima into the government,” Mr. Danon said. “This will be a blow to settlement; this will hurt the Likud’s values and will hurt the Israeli public that elected the Likud to lead the State of Israel.”

For his part, even the dour Mr. Mofaz couldn’t keep from smiling. With this one stroke he had saved the Kadima party that was facing a stunningly large loss of seats in any election this year, and catapulted himself to the front bench of government.

Mr. Barak, an apparent broker in the coalition deal, is also happy. Having split from the Labour party last year in order to remain in the government, his five-member Independence party was facing annihilation in a September election. This way, Mr. Barak lives to fight another year as Defence Minister.

The big losers in this unexpected development must certainly include the recently elected Labour party leader Shelly Yachimovich, who is stuck now with only eight members of Knesset instead of the 18 to 19 that opinion polls suggested she’d capture in an election this year.

Ms. Yachimovich, an assertive and articulate former journalist who had revived Labour after Mr. Barak’s departure, denounced the accord.

“This is a pact of cowards and the most contemptible and preposterous zigzag in Israel’s political history,” she said “Nobody will ever forget this shady deal, and unfortunately, this will cause profound damage to public faith in politics.”

Another apparently big loser is Yair Lapid, the entertaining former television news anchor who only last month announced the formation of a new political party that, polls indicated, could win some 11 seats were an election to take place soon.

Mr. Lapid described the unity government as precisely the kind of detestable and ugly politics he sought to eliminate. This repulsive political alliance will bury all of its participants under it, he said.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 8, 2012, 4:49 PM (GMT+02:00)

Barack Obama and Binyamin Netanyahu at their last meeting

The unity government backed by a majority of 94 (out of 120) which Binyamin Netanyahu formed Tuesday May 8, is not just the broadest coalition ever to govern Israel, but also the first with three former chiefs of staff at the helm. Two are also present (Ehud Barak) and former (Shaul Mofaz) defense ministers.  It was this feature which drew the most attention in Washington as the first reports of Netanyahu’s stunning U-turn away from an early election filtered through.
“He has pulled off another term in office without standing for election,” said one senior administration source, “and he’s done it seven months before Barack Obama faces the American voter.” A re-elected Obama will find the same Netanyahu sitting in the prime minister’s chair in Jerusalem as before – after reinventing himself as a long-life premier.

If he and his new senior partner, former opposition Kadima’s Shaul Mofaz, achieve the targets they have set themselves – especially electoral and government reforms by the end of 2012 – those reforms will enhance Netanyahu’s chances of winning the October 2013 elections. So that when Obama ends his second presidential term in late 2017, Netanyahu will be ending his third as prime minister or as head of state, depending on whether reform legislation merges the two functions.
debkafile’s Washington sources registered three assessments by authoritative US sources of the changes portended by the Israel’s unity government, especially their impact on a potential Israeli, American or combined attack on Iran’s nuclear program:

1. According to one school of thought, the introduction of Mofaz, former chief of staff and defense minister, will make the composition of the new unity government the most hawkish ever, considering that he will sit down alongside Defense Minister Barak and former chief of staff Moshe Yaalon, currently vice premier and Minister for Strategic Affairs. All three hold key cabinet posts. Another prominent Kadima member expecting an influential post in the cabinet or a Knesset panel chair is former Shin Bet chief Avi Dichter,.
The message to the Obama administration is clear: The vocal criticism leveled against Netanyahu’s capacity to make good on a military option against Iran by a small group of aggrieved former Israeli generals and ex-security chiefs in no way represents the view of the “entire Israeli security establishment” as it was presented. Heading the government today is a solid security elite fully capable of executing any decisions that may be necessary to pre-empt a nuclear Iran.
That is not to say that an Israeli attack on Iran is momentary, say these American sources, possibly even the reverse. They suggest that the new lineup may give Obama a few months’ space before getting down to a final decision on Iran.
2. The second school of thought within the Obama administration noted that while skipping over Iran, both Netanyahu and Mofaz made a point at the news conference launching their partnership in Jerusalem of stressing peace negotiations with the Palestinians as one of the four most compelling factors spurring their collaboration and dominating their goals.
debkafile’s political sources disclose that the prime minister has handed Mofaz the task of breaking down Palestinian resistance to peace talks after nearly two years, so long as he and Netanyahu are of one mind on how to proceed. At their press conference, the Kadima leader stated his party is committed to the concept of a democratic Jewish Israel willing to accept territorial compromise in return for peace with security.

Our Washington sources see this as part of the deal forged between the two men whereby Mofaz is committed to back Netanyahu on Iran while gaining the prime minister’s support on the Palestinian issue. In this, Mofaz is additionally motivated to seek success where former Kadima leader Tzipi Livni failed three years ago when she served as foreign minister.

3.  A third view in Washington homes in on the changing face of Israeli politics. One American strategist opined that Israel is undergoing a historic sea change: Reform of the governing and political systems which heads their new coalition’s agenda has the potential for eclipsing the many small and fringe political groupings which for nearly seven decades have kept the political scene unstable and foreshortened the life of most governments. ”The right reform program could leave Israel and its parliament with just three or four major political blocs, center, right, religious and Arab. “
Netanyahu appears to have taken the first step towards introducing a survivable centrist bloc, although every attempt in the past has foundered. Success would thrust the rightist groupings into a separate corner of the political map in opposition to his broad-based ruling coalition.

Analysis: A new balance at the ca… JPost – Diplomacy & Politics.

Photo: Emil Salman / Pool / Haaretz

On June 4, 1967, then-prime minister Levi Eshkol formed a national unity government and appointed Moshe Dayan minister of defense. A day later, the Six Day War broke out.

The threat that Israel faces today from Iran is not as imminent as the one Eshkol was concerned with 45 years ago. On the other hand though, by inserting Shaul Mofaz and Kadima into the government, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may be trying to tighten ranks ahead of a possible war that might be looming on the horizon, a war against Iran.

</p><p>Shaul, welcome</p></p><p>When it became clear to me that we can form a very broad government</p></p><div id=’relatedArticles’><label id=’relatedArticlesTitle’> Related: </label><ul><li><div class=’relatedArticlesItem’ > <a href=’/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=269131′ TARGET = ‘_blank’>Mofaz: No flip flop, I took ‘historic’ offer</a></div></li><li><div class=’relatedArticlesItem’ > <a href=’/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=269147′ TARGET = ‘_blank’>Unity deal draws mixture of disgust and delight</a></div></li></ul></div><p>In fact, the broadest governmentin the history of the state of Israel</p></p><p>of 94 members of knesset</p></p><p>I realized we can restore stabilitywithout going to elections</p></p><p>There are 4 topics that anchor Kadima’s decision to join Netanyahu’s current coalition </p></p><p>The first is changing the Tal Law</p></p><p>The second is changing the government system</p></p><p>Third is the political negotiations</p></p><p>And our dealing with a number of challenges</p></p><p>including the economic and social challenges</p><br />

Mofaz however is not someone who is expected to immediately fall in line behind Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak when it comes to Iran.

A former defense minister and chief of staff, he has a record that nearly parallels Barak’s and could try and take a stand against him in the government. He is intimately familiar with the Iranian issue – not just because of his birth in Tehran – but also from his more recent role as chairman of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee and head of the Strategic Dialogue with the United States up until 2009.

According to media reports over the past year, Mofaz has been opposed to an Israeli attack against Iran and will find a partner in his successor as chief of staff Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe “Bogie” Ya’alon who is also opposed to unilateral Israeli action.

Both believe that a military option should be a last resort and Israel should instead try and get the United States to stop the Iranians.

If Netanyahu plans on bringing such an option to a security cabinet vote in the near future and possibly as early as this summer, he likely gave thought to the way Mofaz would vote and the potential outcome.

Judging by the decision to bring Kadima into the government, Netanyahu either is not planning on bringing a possible strike to a vote or he believes that he has a majority in the cabinet without Mofaz. Another possibility is that Netanyahu believes that once Mofaz joins the government and is re-exposed to the latest classified material on Iran, the Kadima leader will change his mind.

Netanyahu shakes things up – Right Turn – The Washington Post.

Seven Possible Explanations For the Israeli Political Revolution – Jeffrey Goldberg – International – The Atlantic.

The largest opposition party in Israel, Kadima, just joined Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu’s coalition, obviating the need for elections in September, and turning Bibi into something akin to what only Iran has previously had: a Supreme Leader. (Granted, one supreme leader came to power democratically, and the other did not.)  Bibi now stands to be the strongest prime minister of Israel in recent history. The newly-elected leader of Kadima, Shaul Mofaz, recently said he would never in a million years join a coalition with Netanyahu, so this was inevitable, I guess. Speculation is rampant about why Bibi brought in Mofaz. Here are some scenarios:

1) Bibi is forming the closest thing he can to a national unity government in order to strike Iran if he feels the upcoming P5 + 1 talks about Iran’s nuclear program have failed. Mofaz is on record against a raid, but his support would be important, and no doubt Netanyahu (and his sidekick, Ehud Barak, the defense minister) could convince him that it is necessary, if they come to the conclusion that they have to act.

2) Bibi wanted to reduce the power of his party’s right-wing by diluting it with the centrists of Kadima; this he has now done. This gives him slightly more flexibility to reopen negotiations with the Palestinians. Do not, however, hold your breath waiting for meaningful negotiations. I wish he would go forward, of course, because Netanyahu is the only Israeli politician who could deliver 75 percent of Israel’s Jewish population to a compromise deal.

3) Bibi wanted to kill the Left, in particular a new party, Yesh Atid (“There is a Future”), and the Labor party, whose apoplectic leader, Shelly Yacimovich, just accused Bibi and Mofaz of being very “masculine,” which is not the most effective insult in Israel. The “There is a Future” Party has a dubious future, and Yacimovich, though now the head of the opposition, is, at best, a speed bump.

4) Bibi wanted as broad a coalition as possible so that he could reform the way ultra-Orthodox men are drafted into the army without fearing the loss of his ultra-Orthodox coallition partners.

5) Bibi wants  to euthanize Kadima — a Likud offshoot — and bring its members back to the party. Mofaz knew he would get slaughtered in upcoming elections, so is more than happy to subcontract out his future to Bibi.

6) Bibi wants to be able to say to President Obama: More than three-quarters of the Knesset is with me. I am Israel.

7) All of these things, with a special emphasis on numbers 1 and 6.

Unity deal gives Israel’s Netanyahu a free hand on Iran – The Globe and Mail.

The surprise overnight creation of a national unity government in Israel – made possible when Shaul Mofaz, the new leader of the Kadima party chose to join the current coalition – gives Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu exactly what he wanted when he came to power three years ago: a grand coalition that allows him a remarkably free hand to govern as he wishes, including possibly taking action on Iran.

The surprise overnight creation of a national unity government in Israel – made possible when Shaul Mofaz, the new leader of the Kadima party chose to join the current coalition – gives Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu exactly what he wanted when he came to power three years ago: a grand coalition that allows him a remarkably free hand to govern as he wishes, including possibly taking action on Iran.

Israel deal does not make a strike on Iran less likely | World news | guardian.co.uk.

The Iranian-born Shaul Mofaz is thought to oppose unilateral military action but the former chief of staff is used to taking orders from Netanyahu and the deal has secured Ehud Barak’s position.

Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu (L) and Kadima party leader Shaul Mofaz announce their deal. Photograph: Lior Mizrahi/Getty Images

Does the overnight political earthquake in Israel, which led to Tuesday’s announcement of a “national unity government”, have implications for intentions regarding a possible military strike on Iran‘s nuclear programme?

At a press conference held by prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his new deputy, Shaul Mofaz of the centrist Kadima party, which has been brought into the coalition, it was said the new unity government would hold “serious and responsible” talks on Iran. (It’s slightly alarming, of course, to think that talks hitherto might not have been serious and responsible.)

The Iranian-born Mofaz is thought to oppose unilateral military action – a position very much at odds with that of his new boss. Netanyahu, along with defence minister Ehud Barak, is adamant that Israel reserves the right to act to stop the “existential threat” of a nuclear Iran.

As a former chief of staff, Mofaz’s views inside the unofficial core group of ministers that takes key decisions – the Forum of Eight, now the Forum of Nine – will carry some weight. But, according to analyst Meir Javedanfar, he is unlikely to be a restraining factor on Netanyahu and Barak. “His influence will be limited. His hands will be tied because of the position of weakness from which he entered the coalition,” he said.

According to Anshel Pfeffer, who writes a blog on Israel-Iran for Haaretz, the move has also “taken the most senior security figure in the opposition out of the opposition and into the government”.

Mofaz served as military chief of staff under governments led by both Netanyahu and Barak. “He has a history of taking orders from Bibi [Netanyahu] and Barak,” says Pfeffer. “I think he will be very much in line [on Iran]. It will be a triumvirate.”

An analysis by IHS Jane’s suggests that Mofaz’s presence in the government will not alter the prospects of military action. “Whether a condition of the agreement between Kadima and Likud involves Mofaz assuming a position on Iran closer to Netanyahu remains to be seen, but there will be many observers who will view the reconstituted government as preparing the ground for an attack on Iran – a decision that some members of the government, including Netanyahu, think may need to be made in the second half of 2012,” it said.

A side-effect of the cancellation of September’s election and the reinstatement of the October 2013 election is to extend Barak’s political life for another year and a half. As I wrote earlier in an analysis of Tuesday’s developments, Barak was facing potential political elimination in four months. Now his position at Netanyahu’s side is assured for the timeframe of a possible military strike.

Netanyahu’s grand coalition should worry Iran | Firstpost.

Jerusalem: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formed a unity government on Tuesday in a surprise move that could give him a freer hand to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and seek peace with the Palestinians.

The coalition deal, negotiated secretly over the past days and sealed at a private meeting overnight, means the centrist Kadima party will hook up with Netanyahu’s rightist coalition, creating a wide majority of 94 of parliament’s 120 legislators.

The coalition, which replaces plans announced just two days earlier for a snap election in September, will be one of the biggest in Israeli history.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) shakes hands with Shaul Mofaz, head of the Kadima party. Reuters

“This government is good for security, good for the economy and good for the people of Israel,” Netanyahu told a joint news conference with Kadima’s leader, Shaul Mofaz.

The new coalition would focus on sharing out the duty of military conscription among all Israelis, redrawing the national budget and advancing electoral reform, he said.

Ultra-Orthodox parties in the coalition had opposed plans to extend conscription to their supporters, who are now exempt.

“Lastly it is to try to advance a responsible peace process … Not all has been agreed but we have a very strong basis for continued action,” the prime minister said, adding that he hoped the Palestinians would “spot the opportunity and come sit with us for serious negotiations”.

“Of course one of the important issues is Iran,” Netanyahu added in response to a question.

Environment Minister Gilad Erdan said the accord would help build support for potential action against Iran’s atomic programme which Israel views as an existential threat.

“An election wouldn’t stop Iran’s nuclear programme. When a decision is taken to attack or not, it is better to have a broad political front, that unites the public,” he told Israel Radio.

A spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas called on Israel to “use the opportunity provided by the expansion of its coalition government” to expedite a peace accord.

“This requires an immediate halt to all settlement activity throughout the Palestinian Territories,” spokesman Nabil Abu Rdainah said. “The new coalition government needs to be a coalition of peace and not a coalition for war.”

Peace talks have been suspended for 18 months.

Signal to Iran

The coalition accord will be formally ratified later on Tuesday and presented to parliament, officials said.

Mofaz, a former defence minister, will be named vice premier in the new government. He took over leadership of the Kadima party in March from Tzipi Livni.

As deputy prime minister in a former Kadima-headed government in 2008, Mofaz was among the first Israeli officials to publicly moot the possibility of an attack on Iran.

But the Iranian-born Mofaz has been more circumspect while in the opposition, saying Israel should not hasten to break ranks with war-wary world powers that are trying to pressure Iran through sanctions and negotiations.

Gerald Steinberg, political scientist at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv, said the coalition deal “sends a very strong signal to Tehran, but also to Europe and the United States, that Israel is united and the leadership is capable of dealing with the threats that are there if and when it becomes necessary”.

Israeli officials say the next year may be crucial in seeing whether Iran will curb its nuclear plans in the face of international condemnation and Western sanctions. Iran will discuss its nuclear programme with major powers on May 23.

Israel has regularly hinted it will strike the Islamic republic if Tehran does not pull back. On Tuesday, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast dismissed the threats of attack as “propaganda”.

Iran regularly rejects Israeli and Western accusations that it is working on developing a nuclear bomb, saying its programme is focused on generating electricity and other peaceful projects. Israel is widely assumed to have the Middle East’s only nuclear arsenal.

Reuters

Israel Hayom | Buy batteries and bottled water.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report May 8, 2012, 1:10 PM (GMT+02:00)

Binyamin Netanyahu with new Dep. PM Shaul Mofaz

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Kadima leader explained why they agreed to form a national unity government and avoid an early election at a joint news conference in Jerusalem Tuesday, May 8. Netanyahu said the new lineup would provide a solid basis for addressing key issues: Legislation to replace the Tal Law with a more equitable distribution of national burdens; approval of a responsible state budget; reform of the electoral system and government structure for greater political stability; promotion of a responsible peace process.
Netanyahu extended a warm welcome to the outgoing leader of the opposition and his Kadima party.

Mofaz: A government backed by 94 members of the 120-member parliament is strong enough for the right decisions and better able to rise to hard challenges than the present administration. Unity is therefore a major historic step. It will lead to a reformed ruling system that will not be prey to extortion.
Netanyahu in reply to a question about differences with Mofaz over the High Court’s order to evacuate five houses built on Palestinian-owned land in Bethel, on the West Bank, said: ‘We are law-abiding adults and are holding quiet consultations for an acceptable solution.”

Read earlier debkafile story.

In a startling about turn, Israel’s prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu let the bill for dissolving parliament (the Knesset) for an election on Sept. 4 go through first reading Monday night. The proceedings were interrupted by his announcement that he was co-opting the leading opposition party Kadima to a national unity government naming its leader Shaul Mofaz, who recently displaced Tzipi Livni, deputy prime minister. The government now commands a huge majority of 92 members of the 120-strong Knesset.
From the start, Netanyahu’s bow to pressure for a general election a year before it was due puzzled political watchers, including debkafile.  His government coalition was exceptionally stable for an Israeli government which has rarely survived more than half a term and he topped opinion polls as the most popular politician in the country.  Labor leader Shelley Yacimovitch was the only opposition leader pushing hard for an early election which no other party seemed to want.

The new lineup awarding Kadima ministerial posts has already been confirmed by Likud’s fellow coalition partners, Israel Beitenu and the ultra-Orthodox Shas. They obtained the prime minister’s commitment to table two controversial bills: the Law for Equality in Sharing the National Burden (universal mobilization for military or community service for all sectors including ultra-Orthodox and Arab citizens) by the end July, and the Reform of Government by the end of December, 2012.
The Kadima leader pledged not to quit the government before end of term in September 2012.

Netanyahu must have pretended to go along with steps for an early election almost up to the end to disarm and mislead his political enemies who had been pushing hard through the media to arrest his rising popularity and bring his government down. In back rooms meanwhile a new, stronger government was in the making in dead secrecy.

Labor remains on the opposition benches after the prime minister turned the tables on its leader’s fairly amateurish campaign to unseat him. Yacimovitch’s obvious next step might be to reignite the “Social Justice” protest movement which took the streets last summer. However efforts to rally large numbers in the last few days, with the help of financial contributions from foreign sources, have fallen flat.
The new face on Israel’s political block Yair Lapid will be left in limbo after the fanfare of launching his new party (There is a Future), the main article of whose charter is the long-term guarantee of his unelected position as party chief.