Archive for May 2012

In 1967, a New Unity Government Foretold Israel’s Preemptive Attack. Will It Again?

May 9, 2012

In 1967, a New Unity Government Foretold Israel’s Preemptive Attack. Will It Again? – Tablet Magazine.

Israel’s new coalition echoes the unity government that came together on the eve of the Six Day War

 

 

One thing’s certain: Tuesday’s sudden and dramatic expansion of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government—he now has the support of 94 Knesset members in the 120-seat house—considerably strengthens Netanyahu’s mandate to take what commentators insist on calling “historic steps.” But it is unclear whether the cooption of Shaul Mofaz and his Kadima faction makes an Israeli preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities more likely or more remote.

 

We’ve been here before. Likud’s political coup carries echoes of another fateful moment: the establishment of a national unity government on June 1, 1967, the eve of the Six Day War, when Israel felt threatened by a burgeoning, militant Arab coalition headed by Egypt’s President Gamal Abdel Nasser. Back then, a left-wing government, led by Labor Prime Minister Levi Eshkol, was joined under popular pressure by right-wing parties (Menachem Begin’s Herut and Moshe Dayan’s Rafi) to present a united front mere days before Israel, on June 5, launched its devastating preemptive strike against Egypt.

 

Eshkol and Dayan could not have been more different. The prime minister was soft-spoken, with a wry sense of humor and European manners. Dayan, on the other hand, was brash, bold, and outspoken. One could only imagine how Eshkol felt when he had to abandon the ministry of defense—following Ben-Gurion’s precedent, the prime minister also claimed for himself what was clearly the Cabinet’s most important portfolio—forced by intense public pressure to hand it over to his polar opposite. But Eshkol made the difficult call for the sake of national security.

 

Today Israel faces the threat of a nuclear Iran—and the prospect of attacking Iranian nuclear facilities without a green light from Washington. But Mofaz is no Dayan.

 

The Iranian-born politician is known as “Mr. Zigzag”—the Israeli equivalent of flip-flopper. A former IDF paratroop commander and chief of general staff, back in the early 2000s Mofaz was a Likud stalwart (and defense minister). But he bolted the party, which he had called his “home,” in 2005 for Kadima when he realized he wouldn’t become the head of Likud. Six weeks ago, he was elected by Kadima’s rank and file as the new leader of the party, replacing Tzipi Livni, who had inherited Kadima leadership with the fall of then-Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in 2009.

 

Just days ago, Mofaz vowed not to join Netanyahu’s “crumbling” government and had publicly called the prime minister “a liar” in whom he had no trust. During the past months, he has been a public and staunch opponent of bombing Iran anytime soon, arguing that the nuclear problem must be resolved by the international community through sanctions and diplomacy. In any case, he argued, there was still substantial time before the military option had to be considered.

 

And yet now, Mofaz will join Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak in a three-man kitchen Cabinet or the fuller eight-man “Inner Cabinet,” where the call of whether or not to launch a military strike against Iran will be decided. Both Netanyahu and Barak are on record as pessimists when it comes to the possibility that sanctions or diplomacy will stop Tehran’s march toward nuclear weapons. Both have made it clear that Israel will have to rely on its armed forces to resolve the problem, whether or not Washington gives Jerusalem a green light.

 

Thinking in Jerusalem is currently focused on the period between July, when a further round of sanctions against Iran will kick in, and the American presidential elections in November. Netanyahu and Barak believe that President Obama will find it very difficult to punish Israel for attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities just before the elections, since Obama will need the help of Jewish donors and voters, and other supporters of Israel, to win. On the other hand, an Israeli strike after the November elections will incur Obama’s wrath—and, some fear, could translate into sanctions against Israel.

 

No one knows whether Netanyahu elicited from Mofaz a secret promise to support, or at least a vow not to block, a strike against Iran as the price of his entry into the government, where he will serve as a minister without portfolio. But clearly Netanyahu—recently under attack from a number of senior defense figures, including Yuval Diskin [1], the former head of Shin Bet and ex-Mossad head Meir Dagan, both of whom oppose attacking Iran at present; and, more mutedly, by current IDF chief of general staff Benny Gantz [2], who said he doesn’t believe Iran will “go the extra mile” and build a bomb—was clearly happy to have Mofaz on board. With the backing of 94 MKs, Netanyahu will present a far more solid antagonist for Obama or any other external or internal doubting Thomases in the coming months.

 

Mofaz was eager to join the government. The day before striking the deal, the Cabinet had voted for early general elections, to be held on Sept. 4. Opinion polls had predicted that Netanyahu would triumph and emerge as the only politician able to form a new government. Meanwhile, Kadima was predicted to win fewer than 10 seats, which would have relegated Mofaz to political oblivion. (Currently, Kadima has 28 seats, won by Livni in the 2009 elections.) The opinion polls predicted that the lost Kadima seats would have been divided between Labor, with its current leader Shelly Yachimovich replacing Mofaz as leader of the opposition, and Yair Lapid, a popular journalist and son of former center-right politician Tommy Lapid. At least in the short term, Lapid and Yachimovich are the losers in the Netanyahu-Mofaz coup.

 

Mofaz and Netanyahu—who was not eager to hold general elections because a recent Supreme Court ruling demanded that the government remove an illegal West Bank settlement by July, which would have embroiled the prime minister in bitter controversy with his right-wing allies—have clearly come out the winners. But the Israeli public, too, may well have gained a genuinely unified government, which is why instant opinion polls suggested that the bulk of Israelis supports the Kadima-Likud alliance.

 

The public opposed early elections as a waste of money that would have delivered no real change. According to the official coalition deal signed between Mofaz and Netanyahu, the new government will promote legislation that will force the ultra-Orthodox community to, at long last, send its sons to do military or other national service and join the labor market (until now, they have basically lived off state subsidies, paid for by the taxes of the largely secular middle and working classes). Getting the ultra-Orthodox to serve in the army and work has been a basic demand of most Israelis, left and right, for decades.

 

Netanyahu and Mofaz have also agreed to radically change the Israeli political system, which is based on proportional representation. The system has tended to give small, mainly religious parties too much power and the ability to extort political concessions and financial subsidies from the coalitions in which they almost inevitably participate. (Yet most Israeli political commentators have suggested that Netanyahu will balk at implementing such reform, fearing that next time around, the religious parties will take revenge by preferring Labor or a centrist party to the Likud as their potential coalition partners.)

 

Lastly, Mofaz and Netanyahu agreed to make concessions to last year’s street protesters, who demanded increased government subsidies in education, housing, and other services. Whether the new coalition will indeed deliver is yet to be seen.

 

Most Israelis are now thinking about their summer vacations in Europe or their unpaid bills (or both). Not Netanyahu. Last week, Netanyahu buried his 102-year-old father, Benzion Netanyahu, a historian of the Spanish Inquisition and, in the 1930s, a vociferous publicist and prophet warning against the impending Holocaust. In interviews in recent years, the elder Netanyahu loudly decried the Iranian nuclear project as a threat to Israel’s very existence. His son, who has in the past three years repeatedly compared Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Hitler, clearly sees neutralizing the Iranian threat as his historic duty and future legacy. He may well have given his father his word on this.

In 1967, the Eshkol-Dayan coalition was a prelude to war. Was adding Mofaz—and 27 other Kadima members of Knesset—part of Netanyahu’s strategy to carry out a risky mission against a similarly brutal enemy? Stay tuned

Obama helped change global opinion on Iran: Biden

May 9, 2012

Obama helped change global opinion on Iran: Biden.

(Truly laughable… Israel had nothing to do with it.  –  JW  )

“We were neither fully respected by our friends nor feared by our opponents.” said, Vice President Joe Biden. (Photo illustration by Amarjit Sidhu)

“We were neither fully respected by our friends nor feared by our opponents.” said, Vice President Joe Biden. (Photo illustration by Amarjit Sidhu)
By AFP 

The Obama administration has helped change global opinion on Iran, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said Tuesday, pledging that Washington would use “whatever means” to keep Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

“When we took office, let me remind you, there was virtually no international pressure on Iran. We were the problem,” said Biden, speaking to a group of conservative rabbis in Atlanta.

“We were diplomatically isolated in the world, in the region, in Europe. The international pressure on Iran was stuck in neutral,” Biden said, criticizing the policies of the administration of former president George W. Bush.

“We were being criticized in European capitals for being unilateral. And Tehran had allies; they were intimidating their neighbors,” he said. “America’s leadership was in doubt.”

“We were neither fully respected by our friends nor feared by our opponents. Today it is starkly, starkly different,” Biden said, touting President Barack Obama’s foreign policy acumen as he seeks re-election in November.

Pointing out that a “greatly diminished” Syria was Iran’s only ally, Biden said: “Not just because of the legitimate threat but because of the president’s efforts, Iran is now isolated and the United States is not isolated.”

The West and Israel suspects Iran is trying to develop a nuclear weapon under cover of a civilian energy program, but Tehran insists the program is solely peaceful.

Biden said Israel’s view that a nuclear-armed Iran poses an existential threat to the Jewish state was “justifiable,” and added: “An Iran with nuclear weapons would also pose a great threat to U.S. security.”

“The United States policy under President Barack Obama is not one of containment,” said Biden, who served for more than 30 years in the Senate and was the head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

“It is straightforward: We will prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon by whatever means we need.”

Netanyahu’s and Abbas’ moments of truth

May 9, 2012

Strenger than Fiction-Israel News – Haaretz Israeli News source..

(While not about the Iran conflict, Strenger’s analysis of the potential solution to the Palestinian conflict posed by the new coalition in Israel is very much worth reading. – JW )

Mofaz’s two-phased plan for peace with the Palestinians could force both Netanyahu and Abbas to make tough, fateful decisions.

By Carlo Strenger

Yesterday’s political bombshell, for obvious reasons, has left both citizens and commentators dumbfounded. It has been pointed out thatNetanyahu is now the undisputed king of Israeli politics: basically no single coalition party has any real power over him; each and every one of them now knows that Netanyahu can live without them.

Of course Netanyahu and Mofaz explained why they went for this move only because of the greater good, and of course most Israelis don’t believe them, because the political interests are too clear. After all this is said, and the winners and losers of this development have been named, we should have a dry look at Israel’s new situation: what can we expect, and what are the major decision points of Netanyahu’s new coalition?

Netanyahu, Abbas - AP - Sept 2 2010

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talks with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on September 2, 2010.

Photo by: AP

Both Israel’s domestic and the international press focus on Iran. Israeli commentators tend to emphasize that the wall-to-wall coalition provides Netanyahu with more bargaining power, whereas the international press hopes that Mofaz brings a more cautious position on military intervention into the government.

To my mind the most interesting factor is one that has been mentioned only rarely: the new coalition agreement’s commitment to resuming negotiations with the Palestinians. As we know from formerShin Bet Chief Yuval Diskin (and many of us thought all along), Netanyahu rather than Abbas refused to negotiate. So far he had little room to do so, as he was at the mercy of his right-wing coalition partners – and he always indicated that this was the reason he made sure nothing happened.

I have never thought that this was the only reason for Netanyahu’s stalling any movement on the Palestinian front: he has never believed that it is in Israel’s interest to allow a viable Palestinian state to emerge. Whatever the truth may be, the excuse that his coalition prevents him from moving ahead on the Palestine front is no longer valid: with Kadima’s 28 MKs in his coalition, Netanyahu no longer depends on either Shas or Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu.

Netanyahu’s new coalition partner Mofaz, for quite some time, has advocated a two-phased peace plan. He proposes to immediately establish a Palestinian state on 60 percent of the West Bank, thus liberating more than 99 percent of Palestinians from Israeli rule. This would create favorable conditions for final status negotiations.

Mofaz’s plan would require dismantling a number of settlement outposts placed in the 60 percent to be ruled by Palestinians. Implementing the Mofaz plan means to put an end to the dream of the greater land of Israel; it would make a Palestinian state a fact, and the question would only be, how the final borders will look.

Hence, in the next eighteen months, Netanyahu’s moment of truth will come: So far Netanyahu’s commitment to the two-state solution in his 2009 Bar-Ilan speech has been nothing but lip-service. He has consistently avoided confrontation with the settlers and with the large faction in his party that continues to believe in the greater land of Israel.

If Mofaz puts his plan on the new government’s table, Netanyahu will either have to make a decisive step towards ending Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and the century old conflict with the Palestinians, or go down in history as the man who destroyed any option for doing so.

A lot of ink has been spilled on the question whether his father’s death will give Netanyahu more freedom to act creatively. I am afraid that this is not the only factor: Netanyahu has a characterological distaste for grand moves. As tactician supreme, he feels safe, and his latest maneuver’s success might strengthen his resolve to continue playing for time without making real decisions. His distaste for risk-taking, no less than his father’s Manichean worldview, will determine the road he will take.

If Netanyahu chooses to move ahead with something like the Mofaz plan, Mahmoud Abbas’ moment of truth for will come, because it will not be easy for him to take this road. Palestinians are afraid that if in any multi-phased process, the intermediary stage of a Palestinian state on 60 percent of the West Bank might turn into the final status. Given that the occupation has been in place for forty five years, these suspicions are more than understandable. As a result, Abbas might opt to refuse cooperation on the basis of the Mofaz plan, and demand that the final status agreement needs to be reached first.

This, I believe, would be a historical mistake. Abbas must realize that Israelis need at least a decade of peace on the Palestinian front to accept the idea that Palestine will reach the 1967 borders, and put Israel’s population centers within striking distance of Katyusha rockets. Mofaz’s plan could provide the physical and political conditions for such a decade of peace; it would make Palestinian lives immeasurably better, while safeguarding Israel’s security.

Establishing a Palestinian state with temporary borders would decisively undermine rejectionists on both sides: it would make clear to Israel’s ideological right that its dream has come to an end. If indeed a new reality on the ground would give Palestinians more freedom and dignity, this would strengthen Abbas: it would show Palestinians that there is a political horizon, and that they have only to loose from endorsing Hamas rejectionist line. This, in turn, would force Hamas within a few years to change its political program, and to accept Israel’s existence.

Abbas should therefore engage with the Mofaz plan if it is put on the table. I am completely aware that this will be very difficult for him: he will be accused by his foes to sell out his people’s interest; he will be called a collaborator with the enemy. He will have to use all his political acumen and the leadership status he achieved during the last years to convince his people that this is the only way of establishing a Palestinian state on the ground, and that, in the long run, Palestinians will only gain from this.

UK seeks delay to EU’s Iran ship insurance ban

May 9, 2012

UK seeks delay to EU\’s Iran ship… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

By REUTERS
05/09/2012 08:59

Britain tries persuade EU to postpone insurance ban on Iranian oil tankers for 6 months, arguing could cause oil prices spike.

Iranian crude oil supertanker "Delvar"Photo: Tim Chong/Reuters

LONDON/BRUSSELS – Britain is seeking to persuade fellow European Union members to postpone by up to six months a ban on providing insurance for tankers carrying Iranian oil, arguing that it could lead to a damaging spike in oil prices, European diplomats said.

A European Union ban on importing Iranian oil, which takes effect on July 1, will also prevent EU insurers and reinsurers from covering tankers carrying its crude anywhere in the world.

`The impact of the measure is likely to be felt strongly in London’s financial district, the center for marine insurance. Iran exports most of its 2.2 million barrels of oil per day to Asia.

The four main buyers – China, India, Japan and South Korea – have yet to find a way to replace the predominantly Western insurance shipping cover provided by London insurers.

The sanctions seek to stem the flow of petrodollars to Tehran to force it to halt a nuclear program that the West suspects is intended to produce weapons. Some Indian and Chinese firms have already asked state insurers to step in and provide coverage by offering government guarantees.

The situation is more complicated for Japan and South Korea, which have already cut imports of Iranian oil under pressure from Washington, but need Western protection and indemnity (P&I) ship insurance to continue importing the remaining volumes. “Britain will be pushing the EU to postpone the ban on P&I insurance by six months,” said one diplomatic source.

“The main reason is pressure from Japan and South Korea as they would struggle to buy oil after July 1,” the source said.

He said Britain feared oil prices could rise sharply as a result of disruptions caused by the lack of insurance after July 1, as Japan and South Korea would be forced to bid aggressively for alternative supplies to meet their needs. A second European diplomatic source said he was aware of the British initiative.

Both sources said Britain’s proposal had yet to win support from other EU members, including France, which has been pushing for the toughest stance on Iran. But in Asia, some shippers welcomed the proposal.

Against the background of these developments. another round of talks with Iran about its nuclear program is scheduled for May 23 in Baghdad, but Iran has said it wants a softening of sanctions first.

Reversing Course, Journalist Says Israel Attack Unikely This Year

May 9, 2012

Reversing Course, Journalist Says Israel Attack Unikely This Year | The Jewish Week.

Ronen Bergman, whose New York Times Magazine article predicted a strike against Iran in 2012, has changed his views.

Tuesday, May 8, 2012
Editor and Publisher

An Israeli military strike “is not imminent,” and highly unlikely to take place in the next six months, according to Ronen Bergman, the high-profile Israeli journalist whose New York Times Magazine cover story, “Will Israel Attack Iran?” (Jan. 25), concluded otherwise.

Bergman, the polished, self-assured senior political and military analyst for Yediot Achronot, told The Jewish Week that “nothing will happen before the U.S. elections,” and only after that if Iran presents an immediate and serious threat to Israel.

He added with certainty that “the U.S. will not lead” an attack on Iran.

In an interview May 1 prior to his appearance with Rabbi Yitz Greenberg, the founder of Clal: National Jewish Center for Learning and Leadership, at the Riverdale Y, Bergman said Israelis are deeply worried about Iran making good on threats to wipe Israel off the map, and people stop him on the street to ask “when will it take place, not ‘if’,” he said.

Bergman’s thorough report in The New York Times Magazine concluded, “after speaking with many senior Israeli leaders and chiefs of the military and the intelligence, I have come to believe that Israel will indeed strike Iran in 2012,” based on the conviction that the U.S. will not intervene and that Israelis feel only they “can ultimately defend themselves.”

In the interview last week, though, he implied that his Times report may have had an impact on the course of world events since it “created some commotion” among American officials and helped add pressure on the U.S. and Europe to strengthen sanctions on Tehran.

“Many things happened in the last three months” to ease the fear of a looming Israel attack on Iran’s nuclear program, Bergman said, including the Obama-Netanyahu White House meeting in March, which he said left administration officials feeling “a bit more relaxed” that the two leaders held similar positions regarding Iran. Another key factor is the upcoming presidential election in November, he added. (The interview took place before this week’s Likud-Kadima deal, which also appears Iran-related, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said to be seeking to solidify his political position prior to the American elections.)

Bergman, a prominent print journalist who also has a television show in Israel, said that as recently as two weeks ago a senior Israeli official told him that “nothing has changed” in terms of the thought process of government leaders, who believe that Israel’s decision regarding a military strike will be made strictly based on its assessment of Iran’s actions.

Regarding the tougher economic sanctions in place, Bergman said that two years ago Israeli officials would not have believed them possible and “would have been cheering” over what has been accomplished. “But is it too late” to stop Iran’s push for nuclear arms, he wondered, pointing out that Iran will not meet any of the “four or five preconditions” Israel has set regarding the upcoming negotiations between Iran and the U.S. and its Western allies.

The discussions between U.S. and Israeli officials on the Iran issue are “at the highest level ever,” Bergman said, but the two sides still appear to differ on the timing of a military strike. The U.S. speaks of preventing an attack, while Israel focuses on striking before a bomb is actually prepared.

He noted that both the U.S. and Israel employ vague language to hide their differences.

Bergman says it is “wrong” for Netanyahu to compare the Holocaust to Iran’s threat to Israel, because the Jewish state is strong militarily and “can defend itself.” A grandson of Holocaust survivors, Bergman believes the Shoah’s “memory should remain unique,” and that all Israelis, not only survivors, are “profoundly impacted” by the tragedy.

In the program that evening moderated by Yeshiva University President Richard Joel, launching The Rose Dialogue Series at the Riverdale Y, Rabbi Greenberg said “the Holocaust has to be the guiding light” to Israel’s response to the threats from Iran, and one lesson is that “you take people seriously when they threaten you.”

No Israeli prime minister who feels responsible for the Jewish people could trust its fate to another country, he asserted, adding that it is the responsibility of American Jews to prod Washington in assuring Israel’s security, based on American interests as well as the moral argument of preventing another Holocaust.

Bergman told the audience of several hundred that Israel has numerous allies in the region opposed to Iran obtaining nuclear arms. A number of Arab states, he said, have a “deep fear and hatred of Iran.”

In his initial remarks Bergman focused on the efforts of the Mossad, Israel’s national intelligence agency. (He is writing a book on the history of the agency and says he has interviewed 650 people as part of his research.)

Thanks to its efforts, he said, Israeli intelligence “has regained the upper hand” in the last several years in its clandestine war with Iran and terror groups it sponsors like Hamas and Hezbollah.

Bergman credited Israel’s leaders for a willingness to authorize the intelligence community to undertake “full-risk operations that would put James Bond to shame.”

Moving forward on Iran: Kadima joins Bibi | Jerusalem Post – Blogs

May 9, 2012

Moving forward on Iran: Kadima joins Bibi | Jerusalem Post – Blogs.

Ed Kotch

The issue of how to deal with the threat of Iran manufacturing a nuclear bomb is a matter affecting Israel’s very existence and, therefore, a first priority for the leaders of the Jewish state.  In deciding Israel’s approach to this issue, and in particular, whether Israel has the military capability to eliminate the Iranian program and should do so, Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu must not ignore the opposition and arguments of those who have held high positions in the Israeli government before him as well as during his prime ministership.
While both Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak have made clear in their judgment Israel is still capable of destroying Iran’s nuclear bomb facilities and putting them out of commission for a sufficiently long period so as to make such a military operation feasible and worthwhile, there are others in Israel who differ with them.  Netanyahu and Barak believe the window of opportunity is closing.  On April 28thThe Times reported, “The recently retired chief of Israel’s internal security agency accused the government of ‘misleading the public’ about the likely effectiveness of an aerial strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, ratcheting up the criticism of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak from the country’s security establishment.
“Yuval Diskin, who retired last year as the director of Shin Bet, the Israeli equivalent of the F.B.I., said at a public forum on Friday night that he had ‘no faith’ in the ability of the current leadership to handle the Iranian nuclear threat.”
The Times of May 8, 2011, reported the comments of Meir Dagan, former intelligence chief, head of the Mossad: “Israel’s former intelligence chief has said that a strike on Iran’s nuclear installations would be ‘a stupid idea,’ adding that military action might not achieve all of its goals and could lead to a long war.  The intelligence official, Meir Dagan, who retired in early January after eight years as director of the Mossad, the Israeli intelligence service, made the remarks at a conference here on Friday.  His assessment contradicts the policy of the country’s political leaders, who have long argued in favor of a credible military option against Iran’s nuclear program.”
The Times of April 30th quotes former prime minister Ehud Olmert, reporting, “As several recently retired top security officials have done, Mr. Olmert urged Mr. Netanyahu’s government not to rush into unilateral military action against Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons program.”
In addition, the Times reported, “Gabi Ashkenazi, the former chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, and Eliezer Shkedy, the former air force commander, told the conference on Sunday that an international approach to Iran was preferable.”  That kind of opinion is near universally held in the US by supporters of Israel, to wit, that it would be far better if the US and other countries joined in the military attack on Iran.  Israel has previously done what the world nations wouldn’t do.  For example, in 1981, it destroyed the nuclear bomb facility built by Saddam Hussein in Iraq.  With that facility, Hussein would likely have been insulated from any challenges to his forced takeover of Kuwait or other belligerent moves.  In September 2007, Israel destroyed a Syrian nuclear bomb facility which Syria cannot now use on its own citizens in the now ongoing civil war or against United Nations forces supporting those citizens if the UN decided to invade Syria to attempt to put an end to the carnage.
Foolishly, the audience hearing Olmert–American Jews—heckled him, calling him “naïve” and “Neville Chamberlain.”  That is truly ridiculous on their part.  There has to be room for debate on this vital question.
Israel has to be the final arbiter of any decision bearing on its survival.  It would obviously be helpful beyond belief if the US joined it in any attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, but even if it is forced to go it alone, that should come as a result of a reasonable consensus of opinion, arrived at by these people and others with expertise on the issue.
The government of Israel should take all reasonable measures to assemble a consensus of Israeli opinion makers in and out of government to support the government in its response to an apocalyptic event threatening Israel’s very survival.
The announcement today that the Kadima Party, led by its new leader Shaul Mofaz, had joined the coalition government now led by Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, is wonderful news.  Kadima had been the major opposition party and now in the government provides the coalition government with 94 seats in the aggregate in the 120 member Parliament, an extraordinary stable number.  The new broad coalition will address the issue concerning Iran and also allow Netanyahu to eliminate the military exemption now provided to ultra-orthodox male Jews, protected by the Shas party.  In addition, it will provide Netanyahu with a greater ability to enter into more flexible peace arrangements with the Palestinian Authority.
As a result of the new coalition, the Prime Minister has called off the elections he had recently scheduled for September.

New Israel Partner Offers Moderate Voice on Iran – NY Times

May 9, 2012

JERUSALEM — Less than two weeks ago, Yuval Diskin, the recently retired chief of Israel’s internal security agency, carried out a blistering verbal assaulton Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his defense minister, Ehud Barak, questioning their judgment in handling what they regard as an Iranian nuclear threat and accusing them of making decisions “based on messianic feelings.”

On Tuesday, as Mr. Netanyahu stood shoulder to shoulder with Shaul Mofaz, a former defense minister and military chief of staff and now the leader of the centrist Kadima Party, and welcomed him into the governing coalition, it was as if the prime minister was offering some kind of response, especially for a jittery Israeli public generally averse to a lone Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

While Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Barak have presented an aggressive stance against Iran, Mr. Mofaz is regarded as a more moderate voice who opposes any rush into military action. After becoming head of the opposition in March, he said in a television interview that an early attack on Iran could be “disastrous” and bring “limited results.”

Denouncing what he saw as the government’s Iran-centric policy to the detriment of the peace process with the Palestinians, Mr. Mofaz, who is Iranian-born, also said, in an interview in April, that “the greatest threat to the state of Israel is not a nuclear Iran.” Asked at a news conference on Tuesday about their differences on Iran, Mr. Netanyahu, addressing his home audience in Hebrew, said that their discussions “are serious, and will be serious and responsible.” Often referring to himself and Mr. Mofaz as judicious people, he spoke with an air of gravitas.

Many politicians and analysts argued that far from signaling any change in Israeli policy toward Iran, the inclusion of Mr. Mofaz and Kadima in the coalition would strengthen Mr. Netanyahu’s hand.

Yisrael Katz, the minister of transportation, told Israel Radio that if he were President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, he would be worried “because from today the state of Israel will be more united, both in its ability to deter and also, if necessary, in its ability to act.”

Ayoob Kara, a Likud Party deputy minister, said a strong government was necessary to deal with Iran. “If we are in consensus in Israel,” he said, “it gives us more power.”

Einat Wilf, a legislator from the small Independence faction, led by Mr. Barak, said that it was essential to keep the threat of a military option on the table and that with a broad Israeli consensus, “the credibility is higher.”

While Iran insists that its uranium enrichment program is for civilian purposes, Israeli, American and European officials say they believe that the Iranians are working toward the capability to build nuclear weapons.

Mr. Netanyahu, by broadening his coalition and thereby averting early elections, has bought himself more time and government stability. Since Mr. Barak’s faction may not have won any seats in the next Parliament, the extension is Mr. Netanyahu’s surest way of keeping his defense minister.

“I think it enables him to keep Iran on the front burner,” David Makovsky, director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’sProject on the Middle East Peace Process, said in a telephone interview.

“It suddenly buys him quiet for a year and a half,” he said, adding, “He’s able to unite the country easier around the course of action if he incorporates his chief opposition party.”

But with polls showing that Mr. Mofaz’s Kadima could lose more than half its 28 parliamentary seats in an early election, his influence in the government will probably be circumscribed.

“Such weakness,” said Meir Javedanfar, a lecturer on Iranian politics at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, “means that his impact on the government’s Iran policy and narrative is likely to be limited.”

Although Mr. Netanyahu has used almost every platform to warn of what he calls the dangers to Israel and the world of a nuclear Iran, neither he nor Mr. Mofaz referred to the issue directly on Tuesday as they introduced their partnership at a news conference in the Parliament building.

Mr. Mofaz also did not mention Iran in his overnight meeting with Kadima Parliament members about his surprise deal with Mr. Netanyahu, said Nachman Shai, a legislator who had attended. But, he added, “it is always there, somewhere on the horizon.”

Ms. Wilf, of Mr. Barak’s faction, said that personal attacks and differences in language aside, there was broad agreement in Israel on what needed to be done about Iran, which already is the target of international sanctions.

“Everyone is saying they would prefer the sanctions to work,” backed up with the threat of a credible military option, she said. Only if all else fails, she said, should Israel act alone.

“Everyone is saying the same thing,” she said, “though there may be a difference of tone.”

Jodi Rudoren contributed reporting.

If Obama’s Rhetoric on Syria is a Joke, Why Trust Him on Iran?

May 9, 2012

If Obama’s Rhetoric on Syria is a Joke, Why Trust Him on Iran? « Commentary Magazine.

Is Iran just an excuse for Israel\’s new unity government?

May 9, 2012

Is Iran just an excuse for Israel\’s new unity government? – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Mofaz has made clear that he does not share Netanyahu’s and Barak’s sense of urgency that a decision must be made even before this year is out.

By Amos Harel

Is Iran just an excuse? That is the main security question floating over the surprise decision to establish a national unity government and forego early elections. Just last week, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to move up elections, he explained to a number of media outlets that elections in September would make it easier for him and Defense Minister Ehud Barak to attack Iran. On Tuesday, the exact same claim was heard, but going in the opposite direction: MK Shaul Mofaz and Kadima joining the coalition would stabilize the political situation and make it easier to deal resolutely, if necessary, with Iran.

But this explanation is relevant mainly if decisive new information emerges that changes basic positions on the Iranian question.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Kadima head Shaul Mofaz, Jerusalem, May 8, 2012.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Kadima head Shaul Mofaz at a joint news conference announcing national unity government, Jerusalem, May 8, 2012.

Photo by: Emil Salman

Kadima’s chairman has taken a great deal of fire for his political flip-flop, for joining a government led by a man he described not long ago as a liar, and for breaking his (empty ) promise to lead the social protest this summer. But politicians’ flip-flopping out of dread of the ballot box is nothing new.

What, if anything, actually happens with Iran is more important.

Only a little more than a month ago, after Mofaz was elected chairman of Kadima, he told Haaretz’s Yossi Verter in an interview that at least two years still remained to deal with the Iranian threat. Mofaz has made clear that he does not share Netanyahu’s and Barak’s sense of urgency that a decision must be made even before this year is out.

But now that political considerations have caused him to bend so much, will he be able to stand tall again if a decision to attack must be made?

There is practically no ideological component in the dispute over how to deal with Iran. This debate is strategic and personal. The entire Israeli leadership, past and present, agrees that an Israeli military attack should not be ruled out as a last resort. The debate is over whether Israel should act relatively soon, despite clear U.S. opposition.

Former Mossad chief Meir Dagan, and even more so former Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin, inserted the personal element into the discussion in their direct attacks on the purity of Barak’s and Netanyahu’s motives.

Mofaz’s views are not far from Diskin’s and Dagan’s. Thus, unless something fateful happens on the ground, Mofaz’s joining the security forum of eight senior ministers will actually have a moderating effect.

Like most significant decisions Israeli prime ministers make, it will probably take time before we know the real reasons for Netanyahu’s actions, before we get past the official version to the behind-the-scenes considerations.

Even in the surprising decision to make a deal for Gilad Shalit’s release, only in hindsight did it become clear that the need for an achievement which would make the people happy after a summer of social protest played a key role.

At least for now, the most reasonable explanation has to do with politics, not Iran. Netanyahu was facing a double threat: the law to dissolve the Knesset, which he himself set in motion, and the two-month deadline the High Court of Justice set for the evacuation of the houses in the West Bank neighborhood of Ulpana, which could yet set him on a collision course with the settlers. He also failed at the Likud central committee convention earlier this week. Meanwhile, Mofaz was pushed into the unity government because of the polls’ ominous predictions of his party’s crash on election day.

At Tuesday’s joint press conference, the pair hardly mentioned Iran. When Netanyahu was asked about disagreements between himself and Mofaz on the issue, his response was vague. Iran, until proven otherwise, does not seem to be the main impetus behind the unity government.

Netanyahu surprise gives Israel grand coalition

May 9, 2012

BusinessDay – Netanyahu surprise gives Israel grand coalition.


Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem. Picture: REUTERS

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has formed a unity government in a surprise move that could give him a freer hand to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and seek peace with the Palestinians

Published: 2012/05/09 09:10:28 AM

ISRAELI Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formed a unity government yesterday in a surprise move that could give him a freer hand to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and seek peace with the Palestinians.

The coalition deal, negotiated secretly over the past few days and sealed at a private meeting overnight, means the centrist Kadima party teams up with Mr Netanyahu’s rightist coalition, creating a wide majority of 94 out of 120 MPs.

The coalition, which replaces a plan announced just two days earlier for a snap election in September, is one of the biggest in Israeli history.

“This government is good for security, good for the economy and good for the people of Israel,” Mr Netanyahu told a joint news conference with Kadima’s leader, Shaul Mofaz. Mr Netanyahu said the new coalition would focus on sharing the duty of military conscription among all Israelis, redrawing the budget and advancing electoral reform.

Ultra-orthodox parties in the coalition have opposed plans to extend conscription to their supporters, who are now exempt.

“Lastly, it is to try to advance a responsible peace process…. Not all has been agreed but we have a very strong basis for continued action,” the prime minister said. He hoped the Palestinians would “spot the opportunity and come sit with us for serious negotiations”.

Environment Minister Gilad Erdan said the pact would help build support for potential action against Iran’s atomic programme, which Israel views as an existential threat.

“An election wouldn’t stop Iran’s nuclear programme,” he told Israel Radio. “When a decision is taken to attack or not, it is better to have a broad political front.”

A spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas called on Israel to “use the opportunity provided by the expansion of its coalition government” to expedite a peace accord. “This requires an immediate halt to all settlement activity throughout the Palestinian territories,” spokesman Nabil Abu Rdainah said.

“The new coalition government needs to be a coalition of peace and not a coalition for war.”

Peace talks have been suspended for 18 months.

The coalition accord was to be formally ratified later yesterday and presented to parliament.

Mr Mofaz, a former defence minister, will be named vice-premier. He took over leadership of the Kadima party in March from Tzipi Livni.

As deputy prime minister in a former Kadima-headed government in 2008, Mr Mofaz — who was born in Iran — was among the first Israeli officials to publicly moot the possibility of an attack on Iran.

But he has been more circumspect while in the opposition, saying Israel should not hasten to break ranks with war-wary world powers that are trying to pressure Iran through sanctions and talks.

Gerald Steinberg, a political scientist at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv, said the deal sent a “strong signal to Tehran, but also to Europe and the US, that Israel is united and the leadership is capable of dealing with the threats that are there if and when it becomes necessary”.

Israeli officials say the next year may be crucial in seeing whether Iran will curb its nuclear plans in the face of international condemnation and western sanctions. Iran will discuss its nuclear programme with major powers on May 23.

Israel has regularly hinted it will strike the Islamic republic if Tehran does not pull back. On Tuesday, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast dismissed the threats of attack as “propaganda”.

Iran regularly rejects Israeli and western accusations that it is developing a nuclear bomb. Israel is widely assumed to have the Middle East’s only nuclear arsenal.

Israel’s next election was due in October next year but Mr Netanyahu pushed for an early poll because of divisions in his coalition over the new conscription law. Parliament was preparing to dissolve to clear the decks for a September 4 ballot while talks with Kadima were under way.

“When it turned out it was possible to set up the biggest government in Israel’s history … I thought we could restore stability without elections,” Mr Netanyahu said.

The accord stunned the political establishment and drew swift condemnation from the centre-left Labour party, touted in opinion polls to be on course for a resurgence at the expense of Kadima.

“This is a pact of cowards, and the most contemptible and preposterous zigzag in Israel’s political history,” Labour leader Shelly Yachimovich was quoted as saying.

Kadima, with 28 seats, will add significant weight to the coalition.

Reuters