WarSclerotic

Iran: The Big Squeeze.

For Israel, Iran attack back on table – Salon.com.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers a speech to his Likud party members during the party convention in Tel Aviv, Israel, Sunday, May 6, 2012. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit) (Credit: AP)

JERUSALEM — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s frenetic politicking over the last week appears aimed at one thing: strengthening his ability to take on Iran.

Only days after announcing the surprise dissolution of his government and early elections, on Tuesday Netanyahu presented his compatriots with a second shocker: He cancelled elections and announced a strengthened parliamentary coalition, bolstered by unification with the opposition Kadima party.

This new union means Netanyahu will control more than 90 seats in Israel’s 120-seat parliament, known as the Knesset. The new majority is unprecedented in modern times. Former army chief of staff and Kadima’s newly-elected leader, Shaul Mofaz, will join as deputy prime minister. The center-right Kadima party adds heft to Netanyahu’s mandate at a time of urgently polemical debate in Israel over Iran’s nuclear program.

Netanyahu’s political jockeying provoked an immediate and strong reaction in Israel.

Labor Party leader Shelly Yachimovitch, who will benefit politically if, as expected, she is now named opposition leader, said: “This ugly maneuver is going to be taught in universities for a long, long time.”

Israel’s Occupy-style protest movement, meanwhile, announced a series of demonstrations to call for political reform this coming weekend. The main question occupying Israel’s punditry even after this second twist remains the same: Is Netanyahu acting to strengthen his hand if he decides to strike Iran before the American elections in November?

Ari Shavit, a top political analyst at the Israeli daily Ha’aretz, who is known for his contacts in circles close to Netanyahu, told GlobalPost that the prime minister has been intent on early elections for at least a few months, for one principal reason that will not please Washington.

“Netanyahu designed to have early elections in Israel so they preempt the American elections in November and give him time to bring the Iranian nuclear crisis to a climax in autumn, in the two months between the Israeli elections and the Americans’,” he said.

Netanyahu’s decision to then abandon early elections in favor of a broader coalition appears aimed at that same result. “Netanyahu suddenly understood that the Likud” — Netanyahu’s party — “could easily split to the right, in which case, even if re-elected, he would not have the mandate he needs,” Shavit said. “Instead of an election preparing the ground for a confrontation, now he has unity preparing the ground for confrontation.”

The Israeli leader has long argued that a pre-emptive strike on Iranian facilities may be the only way to prevent Iran from developing nuclear-weapons capability.

But opposition from European leaders and US President Barack Obama, who supports a diplomatic approach, and from a growing chorus of former Israeli military commanders who argue that a unilateral strike would only delay, not halt, Iranian ambitions, have weakened the prime minister’s position.

Netanyahu’s logic seems to hold that if Obama is re-elected in November, he will no longer have to worry about domestic politics and will be able to press Netanyahu on Iran and the question of peace talks with the Palestinians — an area Netanyahu is eager to keep out of the international spotlight.

“The Iranian reason remains Netanyahu’s motivation,” Shavit said. “The difference is that now the season is shortened. He does not have to wait until the election on Sept. 4 before bringing the Iranian issue to a head. He can act now.”

Chanan Kristal, a political analyst for Israel Radio, had a somewhat different take. He said that two possibilities exist that can explain Netanyahu’s actions — but agreed that the move was driven by Iran.

“Either [Netanyahu] needs [new Deputy Prime Minister] Mofaz in his government in order to justify postponing any action against Iran, or he needs Mofaz inside so as to provide legitimacy for when he does attack Iran. Mofaz has so far come out against an attack, but it remains clear that those making the decision will be Netanyahu and Defense Minister [Ehud] Barak. For now, all bets are off.”

Shavit warned that anyone interested in preventing a conflict with Iran, such as the United States, will need to act swiftly to find a political solution.

“Otherwise there is a risk by the end of summer, we’ll find ourselves in a dire situation,” he said.

At the joint press conference announcing his union with Kadima and Mofaz, Netanyahu appeared to be peeved at much of the sniping he has recently faced by a growing list of former military and intelligence leaders expressing doubts about his Iran policy. He seemed especially put off by Yuval Diskin, the former head of Israel’s internal security agency and an apolitical figure respected across the board, who last week took the criticism farther than most.

“My major problem is that I have no faith in the current leadership, which must lead us in an event on the scale of war with Iran or a regional war,” he said. “I don’t believe in either the prime minister or the defense minister. I don’t believe in a leadership that makes decisions based on messianic feelings.”

The implication that Netanyahu and Barak are not competent to make decisions on matters of national security, specifically regarding Iran, ricocheted loudly across the political universe and clearly remained on Netanyahu’s mind today as he repeatedly stressed the “sanity” of his government and said: “I have even been referred to as messianic. Yes, messianic.”

Diplomania-Israel News – Haaretz Israeli News source..

In unusual move, PM invites Barak, Lieberman and newcomer Mofaz to join meeting with EU foreign policy chief Ashton, in which he accused Iran of playing for time and said world powers must demand that Iran take tangible steps toward halting uranium enrichment.

By Barak Ravid

After Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finished celebrating the aftermath of the political bombshell that he had dropped on Israel by bringing in Kadima into the government, he freed up Wednesday to deal with a different bomb.

On Wednesday afternoon, the prime minister met with European Union Foreign Affairs Chief Catherine Ashton, who arrived in Israel to brief Netanyahu on the preparations for the second round of nuclear talks with Iran, which are set to take place on May 23 in Baghdad.

	Meeting of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with EU Foreign Commissioner Catherine Ashton in Jerusalem.
	Photo by: GPO

Ashton’s visit was first reported in Haaretz last week. In an unusual move, Netanyahu invited Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman to join the meeting with Ashton, along with the newcomer, Kadima head Shaul Mofaz. Mofaz, who will be sworn in Wednesday as a minister in the government, will join Netanyahu’s security cabinet, which will now be called the forum of nine senior ministers.

During the meeting, the Israelis presented a rigid set of demands for the Iranians, a senior Israeli official said. Netanyahu and the three ministers told Ashton that Israel’s position leading up to the Baghdad talks is that the talks will be considered as progress only if they would yield an Iranian guarantee – with a clear timetable – to halt uranium enrichment, to remove all enriched uranium out of Iranian soil, and to dismantle the underground enrichment facility in Fordo, which is near Qom.

“Iran is trying to gain time through talks with the West, and has no intention of halting its nuclear program,” Netanyahu told Ashton at the meeting.

According to a report published by Israeli newspaper Maariv on Wednesday, several officials who took part in the coalitional negotiations between Mofaz and Netanyahu said the two are “coordinated” over the issue of Iran and are “of one mind” when it comes to stopping Iran’s nuclear program.

Despite the fact that the report did not explain the significance of that coordination, it was hinted that, ostensibly, Mofaz changed his mind once more and now supports an attack on Iran. In recent weeks, and even more forcefully since he won the elections to become head of Kadima, Mofaz vigorously attacked Netanyahu over the issue of Iran, claiming he was “frightening the public.”

What likely stands behind the invitation of Barak, Lieberman and Mofaz to the meeting with Ashton is Netanyahu’s desire to present a united front to Ashton, who is charged with handling the negotiations with Iran on behalf of the six major powers – the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany.

Ashton’s visit to Israel is also slightly unusual. As opposed to all of her previous visits, Ashton’s bureau refrained from officially announcing the visit or responding to journalists’ questions on the topic. Moreover, she did not visit the Palestinian Authority, but solely met with Netanyahu and his senior ministers and flew back to Brussels.

Ashton’s visit to Jerusalem took place while preparations were being made in advance of the second round of talks with Iran. Ashton’s senior adviser, Helga Schmid, is expected to meet this week with Iran’s deputy negotiator Ali Bagheri, and last week Schmid had met with the negotiating teams of the six world powers.

Netanyahu and his senior ministers made clear to Ashton during the meeting that the world powers must demand that Iran take tangible steps to halt uranium enrichment, and not simply make do with declarations. Lieberman, who visited in Berlin this week, told his German counterpart Guido Westerwelle that Israel expects that the world powers will agree on tangible steps during the meeting with Iran, and not only to hold further meetings that would enable the Iranians to play for time.

( In comparing the current situation visa vie the situation in 1967 it is useful to review just what happened back then.   This is the best political/military documentary I know of, made a few years ago.  While there are many differences, the parallels, particularly the political ones are striking.  HIGHLY recommended.  – JW )

Uploaded by constructivereconcil on May 26, 2011

Iran is buying time in nuke talks while it continues enrichment, PM complains to EU foreign policy chief | The Times of Israel.

Catherine Ashton apparently came to Jerusalem to try to assuage Netanyahu’s fears about a deal with Tehran; it didn’t work

Catherine Ashton meets with Prime Minister Netanyahu on Wednesday in Jerusalem (photo credit: Amos Ben Gershom, GPO)

In the meeting, which was also attended by Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman and incoming Vice Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz, Israel reiterated its concerns regarding the Iranian nuclear program, according to government officials.

“What will be seen as progress is Iranian agreements and a clear timeline for implementations on three critical issues: the total cessation of all enrichment activities; the removal from Iran of all enriched material; and the dismantling of the [nuclear] facility near Qom,” a government official told The Times of Israel.

In April, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany — the so-called P5+1 — met with Iranian officials in Istanbul to talk about the country’s nuclear program. Although the parties spoke of a constructive meeting, the talk did not yield concrete achievements besides an agreement to reconvene on May 23 in Baghdad. After the Istanbul meeting, a frustrated Netanyahu said Iran has been given a “freebie,” as it received five more weeks “to continue enrichment without any limitation.”

According to Haaretz, Ashton came to Israel to “prevent Israel from speaking out publicly against the talks.”

Ashton was briefing Netanyahu about past and future discussions with Iran “in an effort to assuage his concerns that a deal is in the works that would authorize Iran to continue enriching uranium,” the paper wrote.

But apparently her efforts were fruitless: “The Iranians are using these talks to play for time,” an Israeli government official told The Times of Israel after the meeting. “So far there is no evidence that the Iranian regime has any intention to cease its aggressive pursuit of nuclear weapons.”

Ashley is only seeing Israeli leaders on this visit, and will not meet with Palestinians in Ramallah.

Ashton’s office did not immediately send out any information about the meeting.

Israel Hayom | The reconstitution of Likud.

Elliott Abrams is a senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. This piece is reprinted with permission and can be found on Abrams’ blog “Pressure Points” here.

On Aug. 7, 2005, Israel’s finance minister resigned his post in protest of then Prime Minister Sharon’s plan to remove settlements and military bases from the Gaza Strip. That finance minister was Benjamin Netanyahu. The Likud party was split in two by Sharon’s “Disengagement” plan, and Sharon quit Likud and formed the Kadima party in November of that year. With him to Kadima came former Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, while Netanyahu stayed in Likud and became its leader once again.

Today Mofaz and Netanyahu, and more broadly Kadima and Likud, find themselves reunited in a coalition government. This reflects, in part, the weakness of Kadima: Mofaz recently won a primary against Tzipi Livni for party leadership, and polls showed that Kadima would slip very badly if an election were held, as had been planned, in the coming months. (The date had practically been set for Sept. 4.) For Mofaz that would be a disastrous start to his period of leadership, and for many Kadima MKs it would mean the end of their political careers. So Mofaz took Kadima into partnership with Likud, even though he did not receive either of the two major security portfolios: defense minister or foreign minister. What did he receive?

Perhaps maneuvering out of a disastrous election was enough. Mofaz will be a deputy prime minister, but such a post can mean great or very little influence. Perhaps he has been promised the Foreign Ministry if the current incumbent, Avigdor Lieberman, is eventually indicted by the police on allegations of corruption. Perhaps he will have real influence on policy toward Iran and toward the Palestinians, although there are many important domestic issues facing the government now — not least of which are the budget and the “Tal Law” regulating the ability of ultra-Orthodox students to escape military service.

The election will be held next year, presumably near the latest date the Israeli constitution makes possible: October, right after the Jewish holiday period that year. Mofaz has made a wager here that Kadima’s fortunes are at their lowest ebb today and that the party would not survive a bad defeat in elections this September, but can recover while in government and do better one year later. He may be wrong; it may be that this move revives the Labor party as the left-of-center opposition and crushes Kadima next year between Labor and Likud. Netanyahu has also made a wager, for polls showed him with a clear victory this year — but October 2013 is very far away.

While this coalition was formed for domestic political reasons, it may have an impact on Israeli security policy. Mofaz has been more flexible on resolving the dispute with the Palestinians, presenting his own plan in 2009, and may push the government to do more. He has been cautious in some statements on striking Iran, less so in others. In April he spoke against exactly the sort of deal that seems to be most likely in the current negotiations:

“It would be too hard to monitor [a civilian program],” Mofaz said. “Iran has military ambitions and abilities, so we cannot close our eyes. Allowing Iran to obtain even a civilian nuclear capability would change the balance of power in the Middle East. America realizes why Israel cannot accept this.” Mofaz said he believed the Obama administration was committed to stopping the Iranian nuclear program. Calling for an intensification of U.S.-led sanctions against Iran, he said the military option was the last option but that Israel must be ready for it. “If we see Iran getting closer to a military nuclear capability and the US acting against its own interest and allowing a sword on our neck, I will be the first to support Israel taking action,” he said. “On this there would be no coalition and opposition. But the sword is not there yet.”

Should Netanyahu decide the sword is there, having Kadima and Mofaz — a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff and defense minister — on his side will be of great value.

‘Netanyahu forming war government’ – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Arab newspapers interpret new Netanyahu-Mofaz alliance as preamble for war

Roi Kais

Newspapers across the Arab world could not ignore Israel’s political drama and the declaration of a unity government on Tuesday. Benjamin Netanyahu and Shaul Mofaz were described as conniving war mongers and corrupt politicians as editorials declared war was looming.

“Netanyahu is forming a war government,” al-Quds al-Arabi’s headline cried. “No one knows what goes on through the mind of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on many regional issues these days. One can predict that this man is scheming and planning wars after murdering the peace process with the settlement policy in the occupied Arab territories,” the London-based paper said.

The UAE paper al-Bayan printed an editorial titled “A government challenges peace.” The headline in Saudi Arabia’s al-Madina paper read: “Israel prepares for war.”

Al-Quds al-Arabi predicts war

The paper analyzed Netanyahu as a statesman and ruled he was “concerned about his status in Israeli history and wants to be remembered as the leader who destroyed the Iranian nuclear program and solidified Israel’s nuclear monopoly in the region.”

Lebanon’s popular as-Safir newspaper chose to address the political drama from a different perspective. Titled “Israeli recklessness,” its editorial explained that the “news (of early elections) turned out to be random fraud but it captured the attention of the entire world and became the focus of analyses and estimates that war is looming.”

“The country once described as the only democracy in the Middle East is slowly emerging to be nothing more than a yard-sale, not just because some of its Arab neighbors are trying to establish true democratic models but because its current statesmen are behaving like crime bosses.”

Like Ariel Sharon, Netanyahu has been pushed to the center – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

(This article almost completely mirrors my own feelings about the new coalition; now representing over 78% of the Israeli electorate! – JW )

Finally we have a government representing the Israeli majority, a government that no niche party can extort. Finally we have a government with a clear Zionist majority.

By Ari Shavit

There’s one thing Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t like being, and that’s a Thanksgiving stuffed turkey. On Sunday night, at the Likud convention, Netanyahu started to feel like a stuffed turkey. The disruption by the right-wing lunatic fringe at the central event of the ruling party made the prime minister realize what he should have understood long ago: Likud has lost its mind.

And since Likud has lost its mind there was a real danger that it would do poorly in an election and he would be unable to put together a strong government afterward. And since Likud has lost its mind the great plan of election-before-Obama and election-before-Iran crumbled. Suddenly Likud right-winger Moshe Feiglin is more dangerous than Obama: He, ironically, could be the one to forestall a confrontation with Iran’s nuclear program.

That is why Netanyahu, on Monday morning, instructed his former bureau chief, Natan Eshel, to close the deal with Lior Horev, an aide to Kadima head Shaul Mofaz. And within 90 minutes, Eshel and Horev were shaking hands. They brought about the biggest national unity government in Israeli history.

To a certain extent, it was a dirty trick. The deal made a mockery of many of the words uttered and promises made in these parts over the past several months. It made a mockery of many an analysis – including ones published by this writer. But this dirty trick is also an encouraging one. It means Israel has a stable government with an enormous nonreligious majority. It means Israel has a government that is explicitly committed to changing the system of government and to drafting ultra-Orthodox men into the army – this year.

Finally we have a government representing the Israeli majority, a government that no niche party can extort. Finally we have a government with a clear Zionist majority.

This week the Feiglinists unwittingly did to Bibi what the rebels did years ago to Arik: They pushed him toward the center. Yesterday, three years late, the Sharonization of Benjamin Netanyahu began.

The Likud-Netanyahu government speaks of four goals: Changing the system of government, passing a new law governing Haredi conscription, creating a new social order and initiating a responsible peace process. But its real goal is Iran. For Netanyahu, bringing Mofaz into his government is like Levi Eshkol’s bringing Menachem Begin and Moshe Dayan into his government in 1967. It creates a firm political foundation on which to conduct the strategic sparring with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The national unity government provides domestic and international legitimacy to the anticipated confrontation. Now the Iran decision will not be the decision of the reviled messianic duo from Caesarea and Akirov Towers. Now the Iran decision will be the joint decision of Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Mofaz and Vice Prime Minister and Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Ya’alon. Instead of pre-Iran elections, we get pre-Iran unity, which does the same thing. Instead of a two-month window of opportunity (September-October 2012 ), we get a four-month one (July-October 2012 ).

A new and surprising political move brings Netanyahu to exactly the same place he had hoped to reach through an early election. The only difference is that our summer is a goner. The Iranian crisis could erupt any day – or night – between now and November.

The Netanyahu-Mofaz pairing also sowed the seeds of a future political blowup. There’s a good chance that in the next election, in 2013, a new center-right party of Netanyahu, Mofaz and Barak will be there, and that its main challenger will be a bigger Labor Party. Kadima in its current form will fade away, the Haredi and far-right parties will weaken, and Yair Lapid will post numerous status updates on Facebook. But the political establishment is moving to the center, and with any luck it will move closer to a two-state solution.

As always, it all comes down to Netanyahu. If this was just a way to hold on for another year as prime minister, his political career is finished. But if he ushers in genuine change, the world will be in the palm of his hand.

No more excuses. He is beholden to none, at the head of the broadest government ever. Starting today, he has all the responsibility.

	Netanyahu and Mofaz.
	Photo by: Tomer Appelbaum

Satellite imagery shows Iran may… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

By REUTERS

05/09/2012 15:02

US-based think tank says images taken of Parchin military complex appear to show items being cleansed outside building suspected to contain explosive chamber used to carry out nuclear weapons related experiments.

Photo: REUTERS

VIENNA – A US security institute says commercial satellite imagery shows new activity at an Iranian military site which raises concern that the Islamic state may be “washing” a building the United Nations’ nuclear agency wants to inspect.

The United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) suspects nuclear weapons-related research may have taken place at the Parchin military complex southeast of Tehran.

Iran has dismissed the allegations but has yet to allow the agency to visit the facility, despite repeated requests.

IAEA chief Yukiya Amano said last week that the agency had recently noticed some “activities” there. He gave no details but Western diplomats suspect Iran may be cleaning the site before any inspection. Tehran denies this.

The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a Washington-based think-tank specializing on nuclear proliferation, said it had acquired commercial satellite imagery from April 9 which back up the IAEA’s concern.

“The new activity seen in the satellite image occurred outside a building suspected to contain an explosive chamber used to carry out nuclear weapons related experiments,” it said on its website in a May 8 report including the satellite image.

Iran’s mission to the IAEA was not immediately available for comment. It has previously dismissed allegations aired about Parchin as “childish” and “ridiculous”.

The images showed items lined up outside a building and what appeared to be a stream of water, ISIS said.

“The items visible outside the building could be associated with the removal of equipment from the building or with cleansing it,” it said.

US sees Iranian obstruction

“The stream of water that appears to emanate from the building raises concerns that Iran may have been washing inside the building, or perhaps washing the items outside the building,” ISIS said.

Previous satellite images from recent months did not show any similar activity at the building, indicating it is not a regular occurrence, it added.

The IAEA has said that gaining access to Parchin is a priority when it holds a new round of talks with Iran in Vienna next week after two previous meetings in Tehran failed to make any notable progress.

Western powers suspect Iran is seeking to develop the capability to make nuclear bombs. Iran, one of the world’s largest oil producers, says its program is peaceful.

An IAEA report late last year revealed a trove of intelligence pointing to research activities in Iran of use in developing the means and technologies needed to assemble nuclear weapons, should it decide to do so.

One finding in the report was information that Iran had built a large containment chamber at Parchin in which to conduct high-explosives tests that the IAEA said are “strong indicators of possible weapon development”.

A senior US official said on Tuesday that Iran must cooperate with the IAEA’s investigation and provide access to relevant sites, personnel and documents.

“Iran continues to delay and obstruct that process,” Thomas Countryman, assistant secretary for international security and nonproliferation, told a meeting in Vienna.

via The Commentator – Of masterstrokes and apoplectic strokes.

Netanyahu has every reason to be pleased with himself

Israel’s left had an apoplectic stroke when, on Tuesday morning, it woke up to the news that Shaul Mofaz‘ Kadima faction was joining the coalition to form a national unity government – and that elections were off.

Ha’aretz’s Amir Oren hyperbolically stated that the deal “broke the record for cynical agreements, one which had held since the August 1939 Molotov-Ribberntrop agreement between Russia and Germany.”

Labour leader, Shelly Yachimovich, thundered that ‘no one will forget this trick’ – a clear reference to the worst chapter of recent Israeli political history when, in 1990, a political volte-face punished Shimon Peres for abandoning the unity government of which he was then finance minister. Yair Lapid – the rising political star-in-waiting of Israeli politics labelled the affair, ‘a disgusting alliance’.

No one can blame them for their hysteria – Netanyahu’s surprise move, in a masterstroke, cleared the entire political minefield ahead and will enable him to consolidate his party’s prominence in Israeli politics.

By bringing Mofaz into the fold Netanyahu strengthened the secular flank of his coalition, thereby defusing the time bomb of the looming battle over drafting until-now-exempted Yeshiva students. This leverage works both ways – against Avigdor Lieberman on settlements, against Shas on the draft.

He also neutralised any potential threat to his political strength from the centre – he took the spotlight off Lapid’s party, making sure that, over the next 18 months, this political amateur loses his appeal and the public loses its interest. He smashed any hopes of a left comeback – at least for another year and a half. And by extending a lifeline to Kadima’s sinking ship, he has begun a process of swallowing it back into Likud and improving his own party’s chances to triumph when elections are finally called.

True, anything can happen in 18 months – but as things look now, it can only get worse for Netanyahu’s adversaries.

This, and not foreign policy, is the driving motive for the prime minister’s brilliant outmanoeuvring of his adversaries. Last week, many left-wing pundits pontificated that Netanyahu sought early elections to exploit the run-up to the November U.S. presidential elections and launch a pre-emptive military strike against Iran between September 4 and November 6, while U.S. President Obama would be least inclined to stand in the way.

Now, while erstwhile proponents of a new October Surprise theory eat humble pie (a rare dish on the left), others are arguing that, by bringing Kadima into the coalition, Netanyahu is now ready to attack.

No doubt, Netanyahu’s new partnership with Kadima will help quell the on-going security pensioners’ revolt first launched by former Mossad chief, Meir Dagan. A Unity Government also deflates many international arguments against the hawkishness of Israel’s government and discourages any future temptations by the current U.S. Administration to prop up Kadima as a ‘Netanyahu antidote’.

The bottom line though, as hard as it may sound to those always inclined to see sinister ploys behind political manoeuvres, is that the choice of an election date never had anything to do with the timing of an attack against Iran and that remains the case.

Netanyahu has strengthened his hand significantly – whether he attacks Iran at all depends on intelligence estimates, the pace of diplomacy and Iran’s nuclear progress. But if he decides to attack, this new political constellation will enable his government to absorb the fallout much more effectively.

Emanuele Ottolenghi is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington and the author of The Pasdaran: Inside Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards’ Corps (FDD Press: September 2011)