We need to convince both Israel and Iran that we will lead the attack against Iran if Iran develops a nuclear bomb.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called for public support for an Israeli pre-emptive attack against Iran because he does not believe the United States will actually attack Iran if the Iranians develop such a weapon.
The new sanctions against Iran’s Central Bank are seriously hindering its ability to sell its oil on the world market and are devastating Iran’s economy but apparently it’s not enough to stop its nuclear weapons program. The negotiations in Turkey and Iraq with Iran are only a stalling tactic by Iran and will not stop their enrichment program.
A game changer would be to sign a mutual attack pact with Israel guaranteeing that we would lead an attack with Israel against Iran’s nuclear facilities should Iran actually develop a nuclear bomb. President Barack Obama and Netanyahu should announce the new mutual attack pact in a joint news conference in Tel Aviv.
The trigger to launch attacks against Iran would not require an attack by Iran against Israel but irrefutable evidence that Iran had crossed the nuclear threshold and did now possess a nuclear bomb.
To convince Iran and Israel we mean it, we need to take concrete steps such as permanently positioning a Carrier Battle Group with an Aegis class anti-missile cruiser off the Straits of Hormuz, moving into theater B-1 and Stealth fighter bombers, moving into Israel a squadron of in-flight refueling tankers, and planning of joint airstrikes including actual flight rehearsals of joint Israeli-U.S. flight formations — 100 fighter bombers or more attacking simulated Iranian targets such as the Straits of Hormuz, then returning up the Persian Gulf in clear sight of the Iranian naval ports and missile batteries on the eastern shore of the gulf.
Jordan and the Saudis would gladly give us over flight permission and the Saudis may even commit a squadron of their own F-16s to our efforts.
Col. William Peterson, of North Liberty, is retired from the U.S. Marine Corps. comments: petersonarch@aol.com
New Israeli research reveals Iranian society as one with pro-liberal values which are deeply at odds with fundamentalist regime. Head researcher: We were amazed by how forthcoming Iranian people are
Ynet
A small team of Israelis, headed by political strategist Yuval Porat, decided to explore the driving forces of Iranian society, claiming that “in the high-stakes of international discussions surrounding Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, Iran’s 80 million people are often forgotten.”
“There have been signs, on the streets and over the Internet, of a battle raging between the country’s Islamic fundamentalists and the proponents of freedom,” Porat wrote in the article published Monday in the Wall Street Journal.
Porat claimed that the question his team set out to explore was “where the majority of the Iranian people stood?”
The Israeli researcher said that his group was composed of leading experts in the fields of social psychology, cross-cultural research, the Shiite Muslim religion, statistics, and dozens of Farsi-speaking volunteers.
In the article, Porat explained that his research team conducted telephone interviews in late 2011 and in early 2012 with nearly a thousand Iranians from the country’s 31 provinces.
Porat said that in order to overcome the challenge of measuring the potential for freedom and democracy in an autocratic country like Iran, “the team had to innovate.” He further said that citizens in authoritarian countries are often afraid to respond to explicit questions, and if they do respond their answers are likely to be distorted by fear.
Therefore, Porat explained that his team had to develop a cross-cultural psychological questionnaire that measures the basic values of society without posing a single question in political terms. “The questions described the views of a figurative third person and then asked the Iranian interviewee to what extent that person was similar to them,” Porat said.
The questionnaires’ goal was to measure the potential of a society to foster democratization, based on its values.
“Conducting the interviews in Iran, we were amazed by how forthcoming the Iranian people were,” Porat wrote. According to Porat, an analysis of the Iranian sample showed that alongside conservative values, such as conformity and tradition, Iranian society is characterized by strong support for pro-liberal values such as a belief in the importance of self-direction and benevolence.
“For example,” Porat wrote, “94% of the respondents identified with the sentence ‘freedom to choose what he does is important to him,’ and 71% of the respondents identified with the sentence ‘being tolerant toward all kinds of people and groups is important to him.”
Once the team had samples from Iran, they compared them with global samples using the new index. In comparison to 47 countries surveyed in the World Values Survey, Iranian society’s potential for liberal democracy was found to be higher than that of 23 others – including Arab countries such as Egypt, Morocco and Jordan, and Asian countries such as South Korea, India and Thailand.
The researches also discovered an abnormally large gap between the Iranian society as a whole which is characterized by a pro-liberal value structure and the fundamentalist regime in the country, which led them to their conclusion – that there is “considerable potential for regime change in Iran and for the development of liberal democracy.”
Lebanon’s Hezbollah may not want a new war with Israel but an order to attack would come from Tehran in the event of a strike on Iran, a senior military official in Israel’s northern command told AFP.
And should another conflict break out between Israel and the Shiite militia, it would be “much faster” than the 34-day war of 2006, said the official, who asked not to be identified.
Any military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would likely spark a deadly response from its ally Hezbollah, whose leader Hassan Nasrallah warned on Friday that its missiles could strike anywhere inside the Jewish state.
But senior military officials do not believe Nasrallah wants another war with Israel and would only attack as a direct result of orders from Tehran.
“The biggest spending of Iran in 30 years has been on the nuclear program, and Hezbollah is the second,” the Israeli official told AFP, adding that Tehran’s aim was to create “Iranian footprints near the border with Israel.”
“If something would happen in Iran, it’s a tool that they can use in all kinds of scenarios,” he said.
“They (Iran) have so many high-ranking officials in Lebanon. I don’t think this is a decision of Nasrallah — he will get orders. That’s why he was created,” said the official.
“If you ask Nasrallah today, he would say ‘no’ (to a new war with Israel) but I don’t think that’s his call,” he said. “Nasrallah understood the power of Israel and he is still licking his wounds.”
He said other scenarios which could spark a new conflict between Israel and Hezbollah include an attack on Israelis abroad or the transfer to Hezbollah of chemical weapons from Syria, in the midst of its brutal crackdown on protests.
Any new confrontation would likely be over much faster than the 34-day conflict which erupted in July 2006, said the military official for the northern region which borders Israel.
“This will be much shorter, much faster than the month” it took last time, he said. “The most important mission today is to win decisively in any kind of war in Lebanon. If you win, you win — everybody sees it.”
He said Israel’s biggest challenge in any new conflict would be Hezbollah’s positioning of weapons in the heart of civilian areas in around 100 Lebanese towns and villages along the border.
“In the villages there are three-story houses: on one floor there are rockets, then there is a family on the next floor, then a (military) headquarters then another family. The people that live there are human shields,” he said.
“Every Shiite village has become such a compound. The great challenge will be to deal with all these compounds.”
The Jewish state fought a devastating war against Hezbollah in 2006 that cost the lives of 1,200 people in Lebanon, mainly civilians, and 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers.
The ongoing bloodshed in Syria has raised fears in Israel that Damascus’s stockpile of sophisticated weapons could fall into the hands of militants. (File photo)
A senior Israeli military official said that Israel is closely tracking events in Syria, fearing the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime could see the Syrian Golan Heights fall to groups like Al-Qaeda.
The military official told AFP that such a situation could create a dangerous security vacuum similar to Sinai.
“If the Assad regime will fall, the biggest threat is that the northern border, the no-man’s land, can be taken over by groups like Al-Qaeda,” the official in Israel’s northern command said on condition of anonymity.
The fear is that the strategic plateau could slide into a situation similar to that in Sinai, where a wave of lawlessness has left the Egyptian army struggling powerless to rein in militant activity.
Last year, gunmen snuck across the border from the Egyptian territory and carried out attacks in southern Israel that killed eight people.
“This could happen if the Assad regime collapses,” the official warned.
For Israel, the ongoing bloodshed in Syria has also raised fears that Damascus’s stockpile of sophisticated weapons could fall into the hands of militants.
Last month, Major General Yair Golan, head of the Israeli military’s northern command, said the concern was that Syria’s stockpile of strategic weapons, including “the world’s largest stockpile of chemical weapons,” could end up in Hezbollah’s hands.
The Israeli military official said that although Syrian weapons were continuously being passed to Hezbollah, he was “not aware” that any of them were chemical.
He said Assad’s fall was likely to deal a very heavy blow to Hezbollah, which stood to lose a key ally in terms of weapons and logistical support.
“Hezbollah is very worried about what is going on in Syria because all their logistics are there,” he said.
“If the Assad regime collapses, they will be alone in this region and will have no border with a friend that can help and support it. They are very worried about it,” he said. “That’s why Hezbollah is working very hard to support the Assad regime.”
The military source said he did not see a quick end to the bloodshed in Syria, which was likely to continue “for years.”
“Most of the army is loyal to Assad, he has money to pay their salaries. He is not going to run away,” he said. “This could go on for years.”
But he said fears that Assad could try to deflect world attention by provoking a conflict with Israel had proven to be unfounded.
“The military forces and Assad know very well that if they start a war against Israel, he will lose and his whole regime will be under threat,” he said.
“Today the Syrian military force is not ready for any kind of war.”
Former Obama adviser says Iran would need to ship-out large amounts of enriched uranium, even below 20% level, no military solution; Bush adviser credits PM, DM for momentum.
Photo: Gary Cameron / Reuters
WASHINGTON – A former White House Iran adviser said Monday that for Tehran to prove its seriousness in new talks over its nuclear program, it must take a step that “stops the clock” on its uranium enrichment.
Dennis Ross, who served as a senior adviser on Iran until late last year, said that Iran would need to agree to steps such as a “significant ship-out” of its piles of enriched uranium. He specified that it must include not only the currently discussed 20 percent enriched uranium, but also significant amounts of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium as well.
He stressed, though, that he didn’t expect a breakthrough at the next round of talks on May 23 in Baghdad, adding, “I don’t think we should set ourselves up for that being the standard.”
But Ross, who was part of panel addressing Iran at the Bipartisan Policy Center, said that talks needed to be held regularly and frequently if they were expected to make progress.
“This is not a serious process if it meets once a month,” he said.
Still, Ross said that it was important the US make a credible offer to Iran so that any failure in talks and subsequent use of force would be blamed on Tehran, and not the West.
“There is no military solution,” Ross said, arguing that even in the case of an attack, the Iranian nuclear program would be set back but not ended, so the United States would need to still be in a position to rally an international regime to maintain sanctions and other measures to keep Iran from quickly rebuilding.
He predicted that in the short term, Iran was looking to divide the P5+1, the group of six world powers now handling negotiations with Iran comprised of the United States, Britain, Germany, France, Russia and China.
A top Bush administration official also participating in the panel Monday warned that recent political developments could make maintaining the international resolve on Iran harder.
Nicholas Burns, who served as an under secretary in the State Department during the Bush administration, said the new French president might have a different mindset than his predecessor.
“I doubt that President François Hollande can be as tough-minded as Nicolas Sarkozy was, and he was the steel in the P5+1,” Burns assessed.
Burns also said that that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak deserve credit from the international community for making the threat of a military attack credible – a threat which was key to building momentum for sanctions and diplomatic efforts.
At the same time, he contended that any military action should be undertaken by the US, calling an early Israeli strike “unwise.”
“The United States has greater military capacity, and the United States can exercise a combination of diplomacy and the threat of force I think more skillfully and more credibly than anybody else,” he said.
“I think it would be better for Israel and Israel’s long-term security interests.”
Claims ‘rejection by West’ paves way to annihilate Jewish state
Published: 14 hours ago
By Reza Kahlili
Iranian outlets have been claiming recently the United States has been forced to bow before Iran on its nuclear program, demonstrating the West’s abandonment of Israel and paving the way for the Islamic regime to annihilate the Jewish state.
While restating that Iran will demand ever more in the upcoming second round of talks with the 5+1 nations to be held this month in Baghdad, the Iranian media are now boasting that Israel has been abandoned by its allies and is in a dire bind.
One such editorial, published last week by Iran’s Keyhan newspaper, which is directly under the supervision of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stated, “It can be said that within the last 60 years, this is the first time that the Zionist regime, since its illegal inception, has had to endure rejection by the West over its vision and interest in the region.”
The editorial, written by Sadollah Zarei, a columnist for the hard-line paper, said that within the last three months, Israeli officials, after reports that America is on the verge of accepting the Iranian nuclear program, have made several trips to Washington, where on one trip they met for 10 days with U.S. officials to try to change President Obama’s decision to accept Iran’s nuclear program. They were unsuccessful.
“The ramifications of [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu’s defeat in the face of Obama’s policies have been a breakdown in Israel’s usurper regime, where now many within its own government have spoken against its own prime minister, claiming Iran is a rational regime and not after the bomb,” Zarei wrote.
While Israel’s government is in disarray internally, the editorial said, the West is forced to watch Iran’s victory in nuclear negotiations.
“The West, which in the first (5+1) Istanbul talks would not recognize Iran’s nuclear program even if the 20 percent enriched material was sent out of the country, now before stepping into the Baghdad meeting has accepted Iran’s nuclear program without even getting an assurance on the 20 percent enrichment process,” Zarei said. “All of this is taking place in front of the horrified eyes of the Zionist regime.”
The 5+1 nations, which are the five permanent Security Council nations plus Germany, have broached the subject of allowing Iran to enrich uranium to the 5 percent level for peaceful purposes. Enriching to the 20 percent level is an important step to nuclear weaponization, which Iran is pushing for as part of its stated goal of obliterating Israel.
The question now is why the West has changed its policies toward Iran, the editorial said. It could have continued with the same old policies of confrontation.
The answer, the editorial said, is that “in the last year, two important events have taken place. One has been the Islamic Awakening (the Arab Spring) in the region, which is based on the ideology of the Islamic Republic of Iran and has the West quite worried and concerned; the other is the events in Egypt, which, despite all the analysis by the West, have turned into an Islamic movement with Sharia laws. These two events have forced the West to rethink its approach toward Iran.”
As a result, Israel is backed into a corner, alone without its allies, the editorial said.
Zarei concluded that Israel has been weakened drastically with what is happening in Egypt, which has collapsed part of Israel’s regional security.
“With diminishing support for Israel and with the (upcoming) collapse of the monarchy in Saudi Arabia,” Zarei claims, “there won’t be any obstacles left facing Iran with its policy of annihilation of Israel.”
Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, one of the most influential clerics in the Islamic regime and possibly the next supreme leader, has stated that it is the duty of Muslims to destroy the “Zionist regime and its arrogant supporters.”
Yazdi had decreed in 2006 that in case of war between Muslims and “infidels,” Muslims can take the “infidels” as slaves until they become Muslims and then send them back to their countries.
In a new decree, Yazdi said, “When protecting Islam and the Muslim (community), martyrdom operation not only is allowed, but it even is an obligation.”
In any attack on Israel, only Israeli civilians who have opposed Israel’s “vicious crimes” should be spared, but the rest can be slaughtered, he said.
As WND has reported, the Iranian government, through a website proxy, has laid out the legal and religious justification for the destruction of Israel and the slaughter of its people.
The doctrine includes wiping out Israeli assets and Jewish people worldwide.
Calling Israel a danger to Islam, the conservative website Alef, with ties to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said the opportunity must not be lost to remove “this corrupting material. It is a ‘jurisprudential justification’ to kill all the Jews and annihilate Israel, and in that, the Islamic government of Iran must take the helm.”
Watch the following Iranian video describing the timing of the destruction of Israel:
Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for a former CIA operative in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and the author of the award-winning book, A Time to Betray. He is a senior Fellow with EMPact America, a member of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and teaches at the U.S. Department of Defense’s Joint Counterintelligence Training Academy (JCITA).
Outgoing IAF chief says that while Israel’s Air Force has necessary capability to strike Islamic Republic, such a campaign must follow ‘ever-changing strategic realities’
Ron Ben-Yishai
“I believe that the Air Force is well prepared for its missions,” outgoing IAF Chief Major-General Ido Nehushtan said Sunday.
Nehushtan’s statement came in response to a question presented at a press briefing, which wondered about the IAF’s readiness for a large military strike. The hint to Iran was clear and Nehushtan’s reply resonated clearer.
Nehushtan retired from the IDF this week, after 37 years in service. Maj.-Gen. Amir Eshel, Israel’s new IAF chief, echoed his predecessor’s sentiment upon taking office, saying that Israel’s Air Force was “ready for every scenario.”
The retiring IAF chief did qualify his statement, saying that the force’s capabilities are not static: “The IAF chief has to be able to explain what can be done given the needs and the circumstances, which are constantly changing.”
Thus, while the IAF is currently ready and able to successfully carry out such a mission, the matter of a possible strike on Iran would have to be reviewed as it is discussed by the political and military echelons, in real time and in line with other strategic and technical consideration, as they become evident by in the international arena and in Iran itself.
In any case, the outgoing IAF chief was not about to drop the proverbial bomb in his farewell briefing.
‘Situation constantly changing’
During his time in office, Nehushtan conducted himself very carefully, keeping a low profile for the most part; despite the fact that the scope of the IAF’s operations under his command was hardly a humble one.
In his four years in office, the corps noted 650,000 flight hours – 150,000 of them operational – and struck 7,000 targets. An additional 150,000 airborne hours were performed by drones.
The data alludes most of all as to the scope of training, especially for long-range strategic missions – which is a code-phrase often used to describe the Iranian issue – as well as to the growing importance of drone operations in the IAF.
The Air Force suffered four deadly training accidents during those four years, but overall, Nehushtan’s IAF had a stable safety record.
Nehushtan characterized his term as one riddled with rapid regional changes and strategic and budgetary uncertainties, which meant he had to constantly adjust the corps accordingly.
“The strategic situation mandates that we rethink our defense dogma and adapt it to an ever-changing strategic and budgetary reality,” he said.
In April, he added, he nearly had to suspend all flights due to a real concern that the corps was lacking spare parts for maintenance, fuel and munitions.
A force to be reckoned with
Nehushtan admitted that the State of Israel allocates generous resources to its Air Force, but stresses that the need to be simultaneously ready for multiple scenarios means that when the IDF formulates its next five-year plan, the IAF will require a bigger piece of the budget pie.
“My foremost challenge was to develop the corps’ quality, maintain it and leave a better IAF behind me,” he said. “The IAF has some of the most advanced capabilities in the world.”
Nehushtan’s term focused on five avenues: Operations, bolstering the force, maintaining the quality of human capital and organizational culture, intensive training and better collaboration with the Ground Forces.
His greatest successes were noted in the fields of operations and force-building. He oversaw the creation of another F-16i squadron, which is a significant addition to Israel’s striking capabilities; as well as the creation of a large drone unit, meant primarily from long-range strategic missions.
Nehushtan’s pièce de résistance, however, was the formation of the “aerial defense lineup” that consists of an anti-tank missile interception wing and an rocket and missile interception wing.
The latter in the parent-unit of Iron Dome, which has successfully intercepted 93 rockets and missiles fired at Israel from Gaza.
Nehushtan has also been able to rid the Air Force of its innate aversion of such defense systems, pushing for the creation of a multi-tier missile defense system. In three years, the lineup will also include the Arrow and Magic Wand defense systems.
The Air Force, he said, must look ahead to future challenges, in Lebanon and Syria, “Where the next test of the pubic and the government’s trust lies.”
IAEA deputy director general meets with Iranian officials for start of 2 days of negotiations, says goal is to “resolve all outstanding issues with Iran” and demands access to information, people sites.
Photo: REUTERS
VIENNA – A senior UN nuclear watchdog official said Iran needed to give his inspectors access to information, people and sites as he began a two-day meeting with Iranian officials on the Islamic state’s disputed atomic activities on Monday.
Herman Nackaerts, deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told reporters as he arrived at an Iranian diplomatic mission in Vienna that Iran should now engage on issues of substance with the IAEA.
The UN agency is investigating suspicions that Tehran may be seeking nuclear weapons capability, a charge it denies.
“The aim of our two days is to reach agreement on (an) approach to resolve all outstanding issues with Iran, in particular clarification of the possible military dimensions remains our priority,” Nackaerts said.
Two previous rounds of talks in Tehran early this year failed to make any notable progress, especially on the IAEA’s request for access to a military site where it believes nuclear weapons-relevant research may have taken place.
Since then, Iran and the six world powers have resumed wider diplomatic talks aimed at resolving the standoff over Tehran’s atomic ambitions and they will meet again in Baghdad on May 23.
Western diplomats will be watching this week’s discussions in Vienna for any sign that Iran is now ready to address the IAEA’s concerns about its nuclear work, saying this would send a positive message ahead of the Baghdad talks.
“We are here to continue our dialogue with Iran in a positive spirit,” said Nackaerts, who heads a team of senior IAEA officials in the meeting at the Iranian diplomatic mission.
“It is important now that we can engage on the substance of these issues and that Iran let us access to people, documents, information and sites,” he said.
Iran and the powers involved in nuclear diplomacy – the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany – revived negotiations in Istanbul last month after a 15-month hiatus and both sides say they hope for progress in Baghdad.
The resumption of diplomacy offers a chance to defuse soaring tension that has raised fear of a new Middle East war.
Israel – widely believed to hold the Middle East’s only nuclear arsenal – and the United States have not ruled out military action to prevent Iran from obtaining atomic bombs if negotiations fail to achieve this objective peacefully.
Two previous meetings between Iran and the IAEA in Tehran early this year failed to make any notable progress.
The UN agency’s document published in November lent independent weight to Western allegations about Tehran’s nuclear agenda and helped pave the ground for a significant ratcheting up of US and European sanctions to block its oil exports.
One finding in the report was information that Iran in 2000 had built a large containment chamber at Parchin – a military complex southeast of Tehran – in which to conduct high-explosives tests that the IAEA said are “strong indicators of possible (nuclear) weapon development”.Iran has rejected the accusations as fabricated but so far has not granted repeated requests by the UN agency to visit the place. IAEA head Yukiya Amano says the issue is a “priority” for his team of senior officials in this week’s discussions.
Soldiers simulate neutralization of enemy force at sea, ship malfunctions, evacuation of casualties by helicopter.
By Gil Ronen
First Publish: 5/13/2012, 9:00 PM
Naval exercise
Photo: IDF
Israel Navy commando forces carried out their largest drill in a decade last week. Soldiers of the elite Shayetet 13 and the 916 Detachment, together with the Snapir port security unit and the Israel Air Force, practiced “operational scenarios that could arise at any moment,” reported Yohanan Levin in the Israel Navy Website.
The senior leadership of the Detachment attended the exercise, in which soldiers simulated a number of scenarios. These included neutralization of an enemy force at sea, ship malfunctions, and evacuation of an injured soldier by helicopter – all carried out within severe time restraints. The exercise was overseen by Base Commander Col. Dror Friedman, who evaluated the soldiers’ preparedness for such incidents.
As part of the exercise, a helicopter simulated the evacuation of a person injured at sea. The casualty was quickly and efficiently transported. “The crew acted rapidly and maintained a high level of professionalism,” said Lt. Amir, a ship commander.
After this drill, the ships received envelopes with different scenarios simulating ship malfunctions. One such scenario involved a fire in the engine room, which required the crew to abandon ship and escape in lifeboats.
At the end of the exercise, the ships were deployed along the length of Israel’s Mediterranean coast, reported the Israel Navy Website. “All of the sailors went on deck to witness a powerful sight that had not been seen in a decade – visual proof of the size and strength of Israel’s navy. Lt. Amir stood with his soldiers on his ship’s deck and looked out on the naval forces. ‘We are here to protect the security of the State of Israel,’ he remarked. ‘The power that the navy has is amazing. To see all of the ships together along Israel’s coasts gives us great pride and assures us that Israel’s civilians can sleep well at night.'”
On their way back to base after the drill, the naval convoy deliberately sailed close to Israel’s coastline, in order to imbue Israelis who live near the shore with confidence that a powerful navy is protecting them.
The drill may or may not be connected to preparations for an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which is expected later this year.
DEBKAfileSpecial ReportMay 13, 2012, 9:00 AM (GMT+02:00)
Malek Ashtar University: Nuclear bomb project HQ
The names and addresses of 60 Iranian experts employed by 11 different Iranian agencies under the control of the Iranian Defense Ministry were revealed Saturday, May 12, by the main Iranian opposition Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK/PMOI). This is the first time an extensive, highly secret, central organizational structure dedicated to building a nuclear weapon has been revealed in detail – specifically the Ministry of Defense under the command of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, which also runs the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant.
The information updated to April 2012 was provided by “sources within the Iranian regime’s agencies, including military institutions.”
It contradicts the fundamental conclusion reached by the US and five world powers and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) – that Iran’s nuclear program is not run by a single organization – on the basis of which they entered into negotiation with Tehran. Most of all, it refutes another key argument heard in the West that Iran has not yet decided to actually build a weapon because Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s said it would be a “sin.”
The Mujahedin-e Khalq, which Tehran accuses of collaborating with US and Israeli intelligence to assassinate its nuclear scientists, clearly timed the publication of its findings for 11 days before the Six Powers were due to hold a second round of nuclear talks with Iran in Baghdad on May 23, debkafile’s intelligence and Iranian sources report.
Ahead of the meeting, US administration sources put about word that a compromise deal developed in the direct backdoor channel between Washington and Tehran had a good chance of coming before the meeting. It was said to consist of three points of accord: Allowing uranium enrichment up to 5 percent purity to continue; barring enrichment up to 20 percent (effectively discontinuing work at Fordow); and exporting Iran’s entire 20 percent in stock to prevent its use for bomb production.
According to debkafile’s Iranian intelligence sources, there is no such deal: Tehran is not willing either to stop 20 percent uranium enrichment or shut down the Fordow plant. Just the opposite: DEBKA-Net-Weekly, the only Western publication following the secret US-Iranian negotiations, last week quoted a message from Khamenei to President Barack Obama flatly refusing to close Fordow, whose sole purpose is the production of 20 percent grade uranium which brings the fuel a short step before weapons grade.
After procuring Washington’s consent to 5 percent enrichment – over strong Israeli protests – Tehran has been encouraged to fight for 20 percent as well. The probable point of accord would be a ceiling on quantity.
Other American sources most recently explained their optimism about a successful culmination of the secret talks by Tehran’s admission for the first time that it was engaged in developing a nuclear weapon, which it hitherto denied. This laid the issue open to negotiation.
All in all, Jerusalem takes issue with US acceptance of the above deal as “bad for Israel.” It refuses to accept anything less than a complete halt of all uranium enrichment forthwith, the shutdown of Fordow and the removal of every scrap of enriched uranium from Iran.
This position was put firmly before the European Union Foreign Executive Catherine Ashton by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and the heads of his unity government, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and designated Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz, last Wednesday, May 9.
She arrived in Jerusalem the day after the expanded Netanyahu government was formed to find out where it stood on the Iranian question.
The exhaustively detailed Mujahedin-e Khalq document presents a completely new picture of a well-advanced and centralized nuclear weapons program, quite different from the one broadcast by the US and its fellow nuclear negotiators – and even by some Israeli circles.
Refuting the belief Iran has not actually started building a nuclear warhead or bomb, the Iranian opposition group provides chapter and verse to demonstrate that Iran is way past the decision and flying ahead at top speed on its manufacture.
The project is revealed to be working out of the “headquarters of the Iranian Defense Ministry’s SPND (New Defense Research Organization) at the Mojdeh site in the western part of Malek Ashtar University in the Lavizan region.”
(This university was first exposed in 2009 along with its three campuses in Tehran, Isfahan and Urma.)
Where the document breaks startling new ground is in detailing the SPND’s 7 sub-sections, “each of which conducts research and tests in a specific field:”
1. Working on the main element for the bomb, i.e. enriched uranium and fissile material.
2. Shaping and molding the required material, including metal elements, to build a warhead.
3. Producing metals required for building a nuclear warhead.
4. Producing high-explosive material used to detonate a nuclear bomb.
5. Conducting research on advanced chemical material.
6. Blue prints and carrying out electronic calculations required for building a nuclear warhead.
7. Laser activities applicable in the nuclear field.
To each sub-division, the Mujahedin-e Khalq document has attached diagrams of its internal structure plus the full names and addresses of its heads, officers, researchers and the liaison offices among the departments. Some are provided with their landline and cell phone numbers. The information is said be updated to April 2012.
In response to these revelations, some official American sources commented that they could not be confirmed and were skeptical about the document’s credibility. Our intelligence sources note that all of this Iranian group’s previous disclosures in the past nine years have proved accurate.
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