Archive for May 29, 2012

Dangerous impasses

May 29, 2012

On My Mind: Dangerous impasses – JPost – Opinion – Columnists.

05/28/2012 22:32
The status quo in Iran and Syria is unacceptable and poses security threats beyond their respective borders.

Iran- P5+1 negotiations Photo: REUTERS/Government Spokesman Office/Handout

Impasses can engender complacency. That is precisely the danger underlying the current international positioning regarding Syria and Iran. President Bashar Assad’s dubious assent to a cease-fire and Iran’s talks with world powers over its nuclear program are the latest tactic of these two allies to resist mounting economic and diplomatic pressures.

Both regimes have gained some reprieve. Further action on Syria awaits the outcome of the UN observer mission. What more to do with Iran is on hold ahead of a third round of talks with the five permanent UN Security Council members and Germany, known as the P5 + 1 group.

Yet, while world powers ponder what to do with these two recalcitrant regimes, neither Damascus or Tehran is changing its behavior or goals. In Syria, the costs in human suffering are rising far above the UN estimate of 9,000 dead. The quest for Iranian nuclear weapons capability advances as more centrifuges are installed to expand uranium enrichment.

Assad’s ostensible acceptance of Kofi Annan’s cease-fire plan did not come from the merciless Syrian dictator. It was announced by the former UN secretary general’s spokesman. Yet, the plan’s doom was foretold when Assad’s forces continued to pummel Syrian cities during Annan’s visit to Damascus in March.

Now, with more than 250 UN monitors in Syria, Assad has demonstrated again that he has no interest in ending his 15-month-old brutally violent crackdown. The weekend massacre of more than 100, a third of them children, in Houla, was a particularly bloody outrage. It also was a reminder that Assad forces began assaulting the Syrian people by arresting and torturing schoolchildren in March 2011.

As long as Assad continues to ignore the cease-fire he allegedly accepted, the Annan plan will remain fanciful. And the observers’ mission, born out of the failure of the UN Security Council, due to Russia’s and China’s opposition, to adopt meaningful action, will continue to be ineffectual. The UN should reconsider, admit failure, remove the international monitors and regroup with stronger action.

Most disappointing for the Syrian opposition, international pressure on Assad has been steadily weakening. Nowadays, there is barely a mention of Assad’s need to step down, which was the call to action issued by the US and the European Union in the summer and fall of 2011.

The UN presence helps to legitimize Assad who continues living in an illusory world where he promotes a view that foreign terrorists, not Syrians, are against his regime. He expounded that view recently in a Russia TV interview. And, he now blames the Houla massacre on insurgents.

SYRIAN ACCEPTANCE of the Annan cease-fire came just a day before the representatives of Iran and the P5 plus one gathered in Istanbul, for the first time in more than a year. Whether or not that was a coincidence, Iranian-Syrian relations have tightened, with Tehran providing support to the Assad regime.

Iran’s record of deceit is similar to Syria. Tehran has ignored four UN Security Council resolutions, International Atomic Energy Agency reports, and ever-tightening economic and financial sanctions imposed by the US, EU and many other countries.

Meeting in Istanbul on April 13, and again last week in Baghdad, the P5 + 1 group spent a lot of time talking with Iran but no agreements were reached other than to convene again in a few weeks in Moscow. On the positive side, the US, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany rejected Iran’s requests to weaken sanctions without concrete, verifiable actions that Iran will abandon its quest for nuclear weapons capability.

Skepticism is warranted regarding any assumed sincerity by the Syrian or Iranian regimes in resolving their respective crises in good faith. But they do have an advantage over an international community that is not fully united, or may not have the staying power, in dealing with them.

The sad reality is these dual impasses, with their inherent dangers, can continue as world powers are distracted by other, seemingly more pressing matters. With US elections in less than five months, and the electorate concerned about the economy, debate and discussions about crises in lands far away will recede. Similarly, new governments emerging from elections in Europe will be tempted to focus on the deepening economic recession, rather than entertain new initiatives to deal with Iran and Syria.

The status quo in Iran and Syria, however, is unacceptable and poses security threats beyond their respective borders. The international community, led by the US, will need to make clear that patience is not limitless. Firm deadlines to end Assad’s crackdown in Syria and to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons program are needed, with credible warnings that compelling actions will be taken if they continue to defy the international community.

In short, complacency is not an option.

The writer is the American Jewish Committee’s director of media relations.

Iran: Sanctions threat jeopardizes nuclear talks

May 29, 2012

Iran: Sanctions threat jeopardiz… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

 

By REUTERS

 

05/29/2012 11:14
Foreign ministry spokesman for Iran urges easing of sanctions, saying, “This approach of pressure won’t work.”

Iranian rial money exchange Photo: STRINGER/IRAQ

DUBAI – Iran on Tuesday warned Western countries that pressuring Tehran with sanctions while engaged in nuclear talks would jeopardize chances of reaching an agreement.

“This approach of pressure concurrent with negotiations will never work. These countries should not enter negotiations with such illusions and misinterpretations,” foreign ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast told a news conference.

“They have their own wrong conceptions and this will stop them from coming to a speedy and constructive agreement,” he said in the conference broadcast by state network Press TV.

At last week’s talks in Baghdad, Iran pushed for the lifting of sanctions on its oil and banking sectors as a sign of goodwill.

European Union states are to impose a total ban on shipments of Iranian crude oil in July. European diplomats say this tactic will not change until Tehran takes tangible steps to curb its nuclear activity.

Further US legislation that targets Iran’s oil industry is to come into force on June 28, days after the next meeting between Iran and world powers in Moscow.

The United States and its allies suspect Tehran of attempting to develop nuclear weapons. Tehran maintains its activities are entirely peaceful.

UN: Most of Houla victims may have been summarily executed

May 29, 2012

UN: Most of Houla victims may have been su… JPost – Middle East.

By REUTERS
05/29/2012 13:47
As Syria’s Assad meets Annan in hopes to salvage ceasefire, UN says less than 20 of 108 victims of Houla massacre were killed by artillery fire: “At this point it looks like entire families were shot in their houses.”

UN observer at scene of Houla massacre Photo: REUTERS

Syrian President Bashar Assad and peace envoy Kofi Annan met in Damascus on Tuesday, as the United Nations human rights office said that most of the 108 victims of the “massacre” in the town of Houla may have been summarily executed and not killed in artillery barrages as had originally been reported.

Meanwhile on Tuesday, opposition sources said that Syrian insurgents killed 20 soldiers in heavy fighting around a northern Syrian town close to the border with Turkey. They said six civilians and six rebels, including two rebel commanders, were also killed over the past 24 hours in the fighting after the army launched an offensive with tanks and helicopters to retake the region around Atareb in Aleppo province, 18 km (11 miles) east of the Turkish border.

Annan is attempting to salvage a six-week-old peace plan, backed by the United Nations and the Arab League, that has barely slowed the bloodshed in a 14-month-old uprising against Assad.

The former UN secretary general left the presidential palace after a meeting of around two hours. He had been expected to urge compliance with the ceasefire deal, designed to end a revolt that began with peaceful mass protests but has turned more and more into an armed insurgency.

On arrival in Damascus on Monday, Annan called on the authorities to act to end the killing after what he called the “appalling crime” late last week in the Syrian town of Houla, in which at least 108 people, almost half of them children, were killed.

The United Nations human rights office said on Tuesday that fewer than 20 of the 108 people confirmed as having been killed in the “appalling massacre” in the Syrian town of Houla died from artillery and tank fire,

Survivors have told UN investigators that most of the other victims died in two bouts of summary executions carried out by pro-government “shabbiha” militiamen in the nearby village of Taldaou, UN rights spokesman Rupert Colville said.

“I believe at this point, and I would stress we are at very preliminary stages, that under 20 of the 108 can be attributed to artillery and tank fire,” he told a news briefing in Geneva.

Some 49 children and 34 women were among the known victims, but the toll was not definitive, he said, adding: “There are reports of more deaths.”

“Almost half of the ones we know of so far are children – that is totally unpardonable – and a very large number of women as well,” Colville said.

“At this point it looks like entire families were shot in their houses.”

The Syrian government has denied perpetrating the killing in Houla, blaming the assault on Islamist terrorists.

“During this time, Syria has not committed a single violation of Annan’s plan or the initial understanding between Syria and the United Nations,” Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad told reporters in Damascus.

“At the same time, the other party has not committed to a single point. This means that there is a decision by the armed groups and the opposition not to implement Annan’s plan and to make it fail.”

Both France and Turkey spoke out against the Syrian regime on Tuesday as Annan was attempting to salvage the ceasefire. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said in remarks published in Le Monde on Tuesday that “Assad is the murderer of his people. He must relinquish power. The sooner the better.”

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday condemned the killings at Houla and said there was a limit to the world’s patience over ending the bloodshed.

“To carry out this kind of murder, to shamefully murder 50 innocent children, 110 innocent civilians, while the United Nations observer mission is carrying out its mission in Syria… is torture, it is wretched,” Erdogan said.

“There is also a limit to patience, and I believe that, God willing, there is also a limit to the patience in the UN Security Council,” Erdogan told a weekly meeting of his ruling AK Party.

Russian arms ship turned away from Syria. President Putin’s first misstep

May 29, 2012

Russian arms ship turned away from Syria. President Putin’s first misstep.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 29, 2012, 11:05 AM (GMT+02:00)

Russian arms ship in suspense

Incoming Russian President Vladimir Putin, after taking stock of his first days of his third presidency, concluded that Moscow’s handling of the al-Houla massacre and Syria’s ongoing collapse into civil war will go down as a Russian foreign policy failure. He personally comes out of the policy as the patron of a bloodthirsty tyrant.

The Kremlin first tried presenting the slaughter of 108 people Friday and Saturday, among them 49 children and 34 women, as the work of unknown non-military bands, partly corroborating the Assad regime’s claim of terrorism.
This line was quickly abandoned and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was told Monday, May 28, to assign responsibility to “two sides” at his joint news conference in Moscow with British Foreign Secretary William Hague.
But the information coming out of the Houla disaster area knocked that line on the head too: It turned out that the massacre was perpetrated by the town’s Alawites. Their victims were taken unprepared for their neighbors’ attacks, unlike the Sunni Muslims of Homs, Hama and Idlib and similarly mixed community towns, and mercilessly slaughtered in their homes by rampaging Alawites wielding knives, shot guns and pistols.
Syria has thousands of small and large mixed towns and villages divided by barricades manned by local militias – some for and some against Assad. The Houla massacre is therefore apt to be repeated across the country, plunging it into a full-blown civil and sectarian bloodbath.
Moscow is beginning to fear that Russia may be stigmatized as an accessory to this horror – and especially the foreign policy choices made by the new president.
Lavrov tried to save his government’s reputation by declaring out of the blue that Moscow no longer backs Bashar Assad and his regime and fully endorses the UN envoy Kofi Annan’s mission.

Annan was back in Damascus Tuesday holding talks with the Syrian ruler. It his hard to see how he can salvage even a vestige of his mission when the Syrian ruler has broken every commitment he made from the word go a month ago.

The other step decided by the Kremlin was to quietly order the Russian arms ship Professor Katsman to stop unloading its cargo at the Syrian port of Tartus, sail east and wait for fresh orders after the furor dies down. President Putin is clearly floundering before deciding on his next steps with regard to Syria and calculating to the last figure the cost of supplying the world’s most hated despot with arms and spreading a diplomatic net under his feet.

Israel gas finds launch navy into troubled waters | Reuters

May 29, 2012

INSIGHT-Israel gas finds launch navy into troubled waters | Reuters.

New gas platforms offer riches, but challenge to small navy

* Mediterranean fields a patrol zone akin to Israeli landmass

* Navy eyes budgets as government tries to streamline spending

By Dan Williams

TEL AVIV, May 29 (Reuters) – When Israeli economists contemplate their country’s untapped natural gas finds far out in the Mediterranean, they dream of energy independence and lucrative export deals.

Those charged with Israel’s defence, however, worry that the navy – small and long a middling priority in budgets – may be hard put to protect the multinational drilling platforms and rigs out at sea.

“We will do our best, but without a major boost to our capabilities, our best will not be enough,” a senior military planner said in one of a series of Reuters interviews with Israeli decision-makers on the subject.

That all spoke on condition of anonymity indicates concern that such doubts over security might scare off investors and, perhaps, even encourage sea-borne attacks by Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese guerrilla movement hostile to Israel and to its exploration of gas fields also claimed by Beirut.

There are internal political considerations, too. With Middle East instability spiralling, Israel’s Finance Ministry is poring over an unwieldy plan for fiscal cuts combined with new spending on national security. The navy is lobbying for cash but is loath to challenge Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly.

Maps and other dry facts speak amply.

The huge gas fields centred 130 km (80 miles) from the port of Haifa in northern Israel, along with Yam Thetis, the existing gas-production rig just off Ashkelon in the south, make for a body of water covering 23,000 square km (9,000 square miles) – more than Israel’s territory on land.

Guerrilla raids from the north appear the main threat, with Palestinian Hamas militants penned in Gaza to the south and rumbling discontent from the Lebanese government over Israel’s drawing of a maritime border unlikely to take a military turn.

Providing rapid response in an emergency would strain the Israeli fleet of three corvettes – which have a crew of about 70 and can carry helicopters – 10 other missile boats and fast patrol vessels, and three diesel submarines, not least given their existing roles of enforcing the Gaza Strip blockade and the occasional foray through the Suez Canal to the Red Sea.

“You would need to have at least two missile boats in the vicinity of the rigs at all time,” said a senior officer.

Another declined to give a specific number, saying only the navy required “several” new vessels to meet future missions.

 

TALL ORDER

That would mean major expansion of the fleet – a tall order, not least as Israel bought another submarine for $335 million in March.

Visiting Israeli joint defence headquarters in Tel Aviv reveals the navy’s junior status, its cramped command centre overshadowed by the marbled tower of the well-funded air force.

The navy also faces scepticism from an Israeli cabinet stiff with former army generals and a finance minister, Yuval Steinitz, who is a civilian expert on maritime security.

In the spirit of what Israelis mordantly call their “ad-hocracy”, an unwillingness to spend on things that seem less pressing, the government may not agree with naval commanders about the urgency of protecting gas fields which are years away from being fully exploited and operational.

One of the handful of gas development projects under way, Tamar, has finished a well 70 km (45 miles) from Haifa. An underwater pipeline will run from there to a production rig that will be erected next to Yam Thetis, 25 km (15 miles) from Israel’s southern coast, by July 2013.

Another project, Leviathan, is 130 km (80 miles) off Haifa – a remoteness from shore that would itself appear to provide protection from guerrilla raids – and is not expected to produce gas before 2017. A number of firms hope to find undersea oil reserves, as well as the gas.

Robin Mills, head of consulting at Manaar Energy in Dubai, predicted an eventual increase in such activity off Israel and Cyprus, with several new exploration wells supported by supply ships and pipe-laying vessels.

“It won’t be like the North Sea, but not a negligible presence either,” Mills said. “I wouldn’t say the security discussion is premature.”

Asked about prospects for protecting the gas fields, a senior Finance Ministry official said only: “This is one among the Israel Defence Forces’ various missions. We are confident that the IDF will successfully rise to it.”

 

MISSILES, DIVERS, DRONES

Like its foreign counterparts, Israel’s navy prides itself on a spit-and-polish proficiency, especially in carrying out missions of strategic importance. The officers who spoke to Reuters chafed at the idea that, in a fix, they might be forced to call on NATO powers which sail the Mediterranean, such as the United States.

The Israeli navy has fended off a variety of threats over the decades, including at long range. Last year it captured anti-ship missiles which Israel said were destined for Palestinian guerrillas in the Gaza Strip. From there, the weapons could potentially have been used to blow up Yam Thetis.

Citing intelligence assessments, the navy fears Hezbollah guerrillas in boats could fire similar missiles against Israeli targets in the northern gas fields. Other scenarios include remote-controlled flying bombs crashing into rigs, or miniature submarines striking from below. A separate possibility is of gunmen approaching the platforms in civilian vessels or with divers’ gear, then storming aboard to kill or capture the crews.

“We designated these kinds of attack as having a ‘reasonable likelihood’ of occurring,” one Israeli officer said.

Anthony Skinner, Middle East analyst at London political risk consultancy Maplecroft, voiced doubt about the imminence of any such incident. He argued Hezbollah has a role as a reserve reprisal arm of its patron Iran, should the latter’s controversial nuclear facilities be bombed by the Israelis.

“Were Hezbollah to target gas platform and production rigs, such an attack would likely provoke a robust response from Israeli forces, which may in turn precipitate a broader conflict. One of Iran’s key cards against Israel would be removed from the table,” Skinner said.

But merely menacing the energy assets could have value in the eyes of Hezbollah and its allies: “It is altogether conceivable that Hezbollah will seek to deter or frustrate Israeli extraction. Iran too does not want Israel to be able to exploit massive oil and gas wealth in the Mediterranean,” Skinner said.

 

MUTUAL DETERRENCE?

Though outgunned by Israel, Hezbollah guerrillas fought its army to a standstill in a border war in 2006 and have since maintained a tense standoff while making clear they are honing their military capabilities for any new conflict.

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, indicated in a speech last July that any attack on Israeli offshore gas facilities would be in retaliation for an attack on Lebanon.

Israel’s navy says that in addition to enhancing its own fleet it expects stepped-up air force patrols of the gas fields and espionage further abroad.

“If there is a Hezbollah guy training in South America to attack a gas platform, we want to know about it,” an Israeli officer said, speaking hypothetically.

There is hope for stop-gap measures such as unmanned, mac

Continued Iran talks could work in Israel’s favor |chinadaily.com

May 29, 2012

Continued Iran talks could work in Israel’s favor |Middle East |chinadaily.com.cn.

JERUSALEM – Last week’s inconclusive meeting between Iran and the P5+1 group (the United States, China, Britain, France, Russia, and Germany) on Teheran’s nuclear program, could paradoxically work in Israel’s favor, analysts told Xinhua Monday.

Before the meeting, Yukiya Amano, head of the United Nations nuke watchdog group the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), expressed hope that a deal would be reached.

However, the sides were not able to reach an agreement that would regulate Iran’s enrichment of uranium, a process necessary before the uranium can be weaponized, or allow the IAEA to inspect Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. The higher the percentage of enrichment, the more stable the uranium would be were it to be used in a bomb.

“The fact that they failed will prove to Israel and other countries that Iran isn’t flexible and they want to continue their nuclear efforts, and for Israel this is an advantage,” Dr. Ephraim Kam of Tel Aviv University said.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long argued that a nuclear armed Iran is an existential threat to Israel and that the international community must stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

Prior to the talks, Netanyahu expressed skepticism that Iran would be willing to give up its nuclear program. Israel has in the past accused Iran of not taking the negotiations seriously, and instead has exploited them to buy time to continue advancing its nuclear program.

Prof. Ze’ev Maghen, of Bar-Ilan University, said that while Iran’s action might prove that Israel is correct in its assessment, he doubted that it would make much difference in future negotiations.

“The international community hasn’t woken up to the reality on what’s going on here for over 15 years, so I have no reason to believe that it’s going to happen over the next year or two,” Maghen said.

The international community, he argued, “continue to believe that they can talk the Iranians down, or that they can bribe them down, or that they can threaten them down — but they can’t do any of those things; the Iranian have proved that time and again.”

Next round

Kam, however, said that failure to reach an agreement should not been seen as a sign that the negotiations have failed completely — they are set to continue. What remains important to Israel was how the American position develops as the talks go on, he said.

“Especially, what would be the American position? To what extent following a possible failure of the talks would the Americans emphasize the military option,” Kam asked.

Washington has made it clear in recent days that they will not allow Iran to become a nuclear power, with US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta warning over the weekend that a military option against Iran is ready — should it be needed.

However, US official have stated that, first and foremost, a diplomatic solution is Washington’s and the rest of the international community’s chief goal.

While Israel prior to the start of the negotiations in Turkey’s Istanbul in April took the “lone wolf” approach, and several remarks by officials hinted that a military strike was in the offing if the international community failed to act.

Israel’s “impose-peaceful-measures-before-I-impose-military- ones” statements were credited with convincing the European Union to impose an import ban on Iranian oil, which is scheduled to begin on June 1.

However, after the talks began, such remarks became scarce, possibly due to a series of high level meetings between Israeli and American officials on Iran. So far, it appears that the United States has been able to convince Israel to — for the moment, at least — allow the diplomatic process to run its course, and that no further gains can be made by talking about a strike, especially due to a widely held assumption that Israel cannot carry out an effective attack alone.

So far, Netanyahu has made no official statement since Thursday’s Baghdad session concluded.

Iranian intentions

Looking forward, Kam said that the talks would continue, adding that there still exist a possibility that the Iranians will change their mind and be ready to be more flexible on key issues.

Maghen, on the other hand, was more skeptical about Iran’s intentions.

“Looking at the history of these negotiations that goes back to the 1990’s and it has been one long laughingstock. Basically, the ones who are laughing are the Iranians,” Maghen said.

He added that he was astonished by the international community’s continued desire to continue negotiations with Iran.

Maghen pointed out that, prior to every meeting, Iran’s representatives state that, while they will be happy to meet with the international representatives, they have no intention of ending the enrichment of uranium.

And despite this, the international community is still willing to negotiate.

Iran leaders hint at missile attacks against US bases

May 29, 2012

Iran leaders hint at missile attacks against US bases | The Daily Caller.

 

With the May 23 negotiations in Iraq failing to persuade Iran to give up its illicit nuclear program, Iranian leaders have returned to threats of war — including the provocative statement that their missiles can reach every U.S. military base in the Middle East, and a call to halt all nuclear negotiations with the West.

On Saturday, Iranian Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami threatened that all “enemy” bases in the region are vulnerable to Iranian attack.

“Wherever you imagine these bases are, they are within the reach of Iranian missiles,” he said, according to Fars News Agency, the media outlet run by the powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The news report said half of Iran’s missile capability is still unknown to the West.

Also on Saturday, the editor-in-chief of Iran’s conservative Keyhan newspaper — which generally reflects the Iranian regime’s point of view – penned an editorial calling for a full halt to negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program.

“After two days of negotiations in Baghdad,” Hossein Shariatmadari wrote, ”it seems that the negotiations only serve the West and its political need with their current economic problems. The Baghdad negotiations showed that the West has not changed its attitude and still demands its illegal requests regarding Iran’s nuclear program.”

Shariatmadari has said in the past that Iran should acknowledge to Western nations that it has nuclear weapons capabilities. On Saturday he suggested the 5+1 nations only want to continue negotiations in order to keep oil prices steady and avoid a shock to an already-teetering global economy.

“It can be assumed that the upcoming negotiations to be held in Moscow will also not result in much and our presence will only secure the need of the enemy,” he said. “Therefore, it’s best that Iran does not participate in any future negotiation, be it in Moscow or elsewhere.”

As the Iranian delegation negotiated with the representatives of the 5+1 in Baghdad last week, Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told Revolutionary Guard officers graduating from Imam Hussein University that Western nations’ days as global superpowers are numbered.

“The oppressive powers, despite their show of force, are on the track of destruction. … Soon the future will smile on the Iranian nation,” he predicted, according to Keyhan.

This latest instance of saber-rattling during a university graduation was a sequel to equally provocative comments from Iranian Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi in April, during a speech at the University of Yazd.

“The power of our naval forces is such that we have a presence in all the waters of the world and, if needed, we can move to within three miles of New York,” Fadavi boasted.

The Revolutionary Guards have successfully launched ballistic missiles from naval ships, and have stated that they have vessels equipped with long-range ballistic missiles.

The Guards have already mapped out the U.S. bases in the region as part of a wartime contingency plan to disrupt the movement of air and ground forces.

Iran’s ballistic missiles can reach targets more than 1,250 miles away, potentially putting U.S. bases in Afghanistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and parts of other countries within Tehran’s firing range.

An International Atomic Energy Agency report released Friday concluded that Iran has amassed 6.2 tons of uranium enriched to a low level of 3.5 percent purity. If enriched further, that amount would be enough for five nuclear bombs, the Institute for Science and International Security declared on Friday.

Iran, the IAEA wrote, also has doubled its highly enriched uranium stockpile — 20 percent pure fissile material — to a total of 145 kilograms.

The report indicated that inspectors had also recorded “the presence of particles” of 27 percent-enriched uranium at Iran’s Fordow facility.

The 5+1 nations negotiating with Iran at the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council — Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States — plus Germany. They have asked Iran to halt its enrichment process at the 20 percent level and allow inspectors full access to suspect sites, including the Parchin military site where the UN suspects Iran is carrying out nuclear arms-related tests.

Iran has refused, but Iranian hard-line cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami stated in his Friday prayer sermon that Iran will not relinquish its right to 20 percent enrichment, which is a short step from weapons-grade uranium.

Keyhan reported Monday that the 5+1 talks produced an awkward moment on May 23 when Dr. Saeed Jalili, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, asked his negotiating adversaries if they were aware of the significance to Iranians of the date and the location where they were negotiating.

They weren’t.

“Thirty years ago today we took back the city of Khorramshahr from Saddam [Hussein],” Jalili said. During that 8-year-war, he explained, the same 5+1 countries provided support to the Iraqi dictator.

“We were alone. … Where is Saddam now and where do we stand in the region? Today on the anniversary of the freedom of Khorramshahr … we are here in Saddam’s palace.”

“When the world stood on one side and the Islamic republic [of Iran] on the other,” Jalili concluded, “we did not surrender to the West and East’s illogical demands. And so do not expect us to surrender now to the current illogical demands.”

All this comes as The Washington Post reported Sunday that U.S. diplomats were the targets of Iran-based assassination plots. U.S. officials and their counterparts in the Middle East, according to the Post, see the attempts as part of a 13-month plan, hatched by operatives linked to Iran, to kill foreign diplomats in at least seven nations.

And barely a week ago, Iran’s top military commander said his country was fully committed to destroying Israel.

“The Iranian nation is standing for its cause, and that is the full annihilation of Israel,” Maj. Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi, the Iranian military’s chief of staff, said in a speech to a May 20 defense gathering.

Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for a former CIA operative in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and the author of the award winning book ”A Time to Betray.” He is a senior Fellow with EMPact America, a member of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and teaches at the U.S. Department of Defense’s Joint Counterintelligence Training Academy (JCITA).

Israel pours cold water on big-power nuclear negotiations with Iran

May 29, 2012

Israel pours cold water on big-power nuclear negotiations with Iran.

Israeli Vice Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon has said that nuclear talks with Iran have led to “more Iranian time-buying.” (AP)

Israeli Vice Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon has said that nuclear talks with Iran have led to “more Iranian time-buying.” (AP)

International nuclear talks with Iran have led to no significant outcome and had only produced “more Iranian time-buying,” a senior Israeli official said on Tuesday, breaking Israel’s official silence on the second round of talks held in Baghdad this week.

Israel, which has threatened to go to war to prevent its arch-foe going nuclear, has fretted on the sidelines as six world powers press for a curb on Iranian uranium enrichment.

“(There was) no significant achievement except for the Iranians having been given another three weeks or so to pursue the nuclear project until the next meeting in Moscow,” Israeli Vice Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon told Israel’s Army Radio in an interview.

“To my regret, I don’t see any sense of urgency, and perhaps it is even in the interest of some players in the West to stretch out the time, which would certainly square with the Iranian interest.”

Yaalon, a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rightist Likud party, would not elaborate. In January, he accused U.S. President Barack Obama of diluting anti-Iran sanctions for fear of a spike in fuel prices that would sap his bid to win another White House term in November.

Like Israel, Washington says armed force could be a last option against the Iranians, who deny seeking the bomb and have vowed to fight back on several fronts if attacked.

Loath to see a new war in the Muslim world, the Obama administration has sought to reassure the Netanyahu government that discussions have not yet been exhausted.

On Thursday, Saeed Jalili, Tehran’s chief negotiator at the talks in Baghdad with world powers − Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States plus Germany −, said Iran has the “undeniable right” to uranium enrichment.

Peaceful nuclear energy and uranium enrichment is our “absolute right,” Jalili told a news conference.

“Of the main topics in using peaceful nuclear, energy is the topic of having the nuclear fuel cycle and enrichment. We emphasize this right.

“This is an undeniable right of the Iranian nation … especially the right to enrich uranium,” Saeed Jalili said during a televised news conference after talks ended.

Enrichment can be used for peaceful purposes but also to build a nuclear weapon, which has sparked international concern over Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

“Netanyahu’s concern that time is running out is justified,” a senior U.S. official told reporters in Israel on Friday.

“We are doubtful about whether it is possible to reach an agreement with Iran, but we have to keep trying the diplomatic path because the alternatives, if it’s a nuclear Iran or regional war, are very serious.”

The Baghdad meeting focused on foreign efforts to roll back Iran’s enrichment of uranium to 20 percent fissile purity, a level approaching bomb grade. Israel wants an immediate curb on lower-level Iranian enrichment as well.

“Even when faced with lesser demands, the Iranians have yet to respond positively,” Yaalon said. Sanctions should be toughened, he said, but “we have not even reached that stage in the talks. Instead, we roll the matter from meeting to meeting”.

Asked if the June 18-19 Moscow talks might prove conclusive, Yaalon said: “Let’s hope. …The Iranians are working to buy time, to hoodwink the Western world and to continue spinning (uranium) centrifuges toward a military capability.”

Though Israel is reputed to have the region’s only atomic arsenal, many international experts, including the top U.S. military officer, General Martin Dempsey, have voiced doubt in the ability of its conventional forces to deliver lasting damage to Iran’s dispersed and well-defended nuclear facilities.

That has given rise to speculation that Israel is involved in a recent rash of anti-Iran sabotage, including cyber-warfare.

The United States will not ease sanctions on Iran before a third round of talks between major powers and Iranian officials about Tehran’s nuclear program, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Thursday.

Meet ‘Flame’, The Massive Spy Malware Infiltrating Iranian Computers | Wired.com

May 29, 2012

Meet ‘Flame’, The Massive Spy Malware Infiltrating Iranian Computers | Threat Level | Wired.com.

Map showing the number and geographical location of Flame infections detected by Kaspersky Lab on customer machines. Courtesy of Kaspersky

 

 

 

 

 

 

A massive, highly sophisticated piece of malware has been newly found infecting systems in Iran and elsewhere and is believed to be part of a well-coordinated, ongoing, state-run cyberespionage operation.

The malware, discovered by Russia-based anti-virus firm Kaspersky Lab, is an espionage toolkit that has been infecting targeted systems in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Sudan, the Israeli Occupied Territories and other countries in the Middle East and North Africa for at least two years.

Dubbed “Flame” by Kaspersky, the malicious code dwarfs Stuxnet in size – the groundbreaking infrastructure-sabotaging malware that is believed to have wreaked havoc on Iran’s nuclear program in 2009 and 2010. Although Flame has both a different purpose and composition than Stuxnet, and appears to have been written by different programmers, its complexity, the geographic scope of its infections and its behavior indicate strongly that a nation-state is behind Flame, rather than common cyber-criminals — marking it as yet another tool in the growing arsenal of cyberweaponry.

The researchers say that Flame may be part of a parallel project created by contractors who were hired by the same nation-state team that was behind Stuxnet and its sister malware, DuQu.

“Stuxnet and Duqu belonged to a single chain of attacks, which raised cyberwar-related concerns worldwide,” said Eugene Kaspersky, CEO and co-founder of Kaspersky Lab, in a statement. “The Flame malware looks to be another phase in this war, and it’s important to understand that such cyber weapons can easily be used against any country.”

Early analysis of Flame by the Lab indicates that it’s designed primarily to spy on the users of infected computers and steal data from them, including documents, recorded conversations and keystrokes. It also opens a backdoor to infected systems to allow the attackers to tweak the toolkit and add new functionality.

The malware, which is 20 megabytes when all of its modules are installed, contains multiple libraries, SQLite3 databases, various levels of encryption — some strong, some weak — and 20 plug-ins that can be swapped in and out to provide various functionality for the attackers. It even contains some code that is written in the LUA programming language — an uncommon choice for malware.

Kaspersky Lab is calling it “one of the most complex threats ever discovered.”

“It’s pretty fantastic and incredible in complexity,” said Alexander Gostev, chief security expert at Kaspersky Lab.

Flame appears to have been operating in the wild as early as March 2010, though it remained undetected by antivirus companies.

“It’s a very big chunk of code. Because of that, it’s quite interesting that it stayed undetected for at least two years,” Gostev said. He noted that there are clues that the malware may actually date back to as early as 2007, around the same time-period when Stuxnet and DuQu are believed to have been created.

Gostev says that because of its size and complexity, complete analysis of the code may take years.

“It took us half-a-year to analyze Stuxnet,” he said. “This is 20-times more complicated. It will take us 10 years to fully understand everything.”

Kaspersky discovered the malware about two weeks ago after the United Nations’ International Telecommunications Union asked the Lab to look into reports in April that computers belonging to the Iranian Oil Ministry and the Iranian National Oil Company had been hit with malware that was stealing and deleting information from the systems. The malware was named alternatively in news articles as “Wiper” and “Viper,” a discrepancy that may be due to a translation mixup.

Kaspersky researchers searched through their reporting archive, which contains suspicious filenames sent automatically from customer machines so the names can be checked against whitelists of known malware, and found an MD5 hash and filename that appeared to have been deployed only on machines in Iran and other Middle East countries. As the researchers dug further, they found other components infecting machines in the region, which they pieced together as parts of Flame.

Kaspersky, however, is currently treating Flame as if it is not connected to Wiper/Viper, and believes it is a separate infection entirely. The researchers dubbed the toolkit “Flame” after the name of a module inside it.

Flame is named after one of the main modules inside the toolkit. Courtesy of Kaspersky

Among Flame’s many modules is one that turns on the internal microphone of an infected machine to secretly record conversations that occur either over Skype or in the computer’s near vicinity; a module that turns Bluetooth-enabled computers into a Bluetooth beacon, which scans for other Bluetooth-enabled devices in the vicinity to siphon names and phone numbers from their contacts folder; and a module that grabs and stores frequent screenshots of activity on the machine, such as instant-messaging and email communications, and sends them via a covert SSL channel to the attackers’ command-and-control servers.

The malware also has a sniffer component that can scan all of the traffic on an infected machine’s local network and collect usernames and password hashes that are transmitted across the network. The attackers appear to use this component to hijack administrative accounts and gain high-level privileges to other machines and parts of the network.

Flame does contain a module named Viper, adding more confusion to the Wiper/Viper issue, but this component is used to transfer stolen data from infected machines to command-and-control servers. News reports out of Iran indicated the Wiper/Viper program that infected the oil ministry was designed to delete large swaths of data from infected systems.

Kaspersky’s researchers examined a system that was destroyed by Wiper/Viper and found no traces of that malware on it, preventing them from comparing it to the Flame files. The disk destroyed by Wiper/Viper was filled primarily with random trash, and almost nothing could be recovered from it, Gostev said. “We did not see any sign of Flame on that disk.”

Because Flame is so big, it gets loaded to a system in pieces. The machine first gets hit with a 6-megabyte component, which contains about half-a-dozen other compressed modules inside. The main component extracts, decompresses and decrypts these modules and writes them to various locations on disk. The number of modules in an infection depends on what the attackers want to do on a particular machine.

Once the modules are unpacked and loaded, the malware connects to one of about 80 command-and-control domains to deliver information about the infected machine to the attackers and await further instruction from them. The malware contains a hardcoded list of about five domains, but also has an updatable list, to which the attackers can add new domains if these others have been taken down or abandoned.

While the malware awaits further instruction, the various modules in it might take screenshots and sniff the network. The screenshot module grabs desktop images every 15 seconds when a high-value communication application is being used, such as instant messaging or Outlook, and once every 60 seconds when other applications are being used.

Although the Flame toolkit does not appear to have been written by the same programmers who wrote Stuxnet and DuQu, it does share a few interesting things with Stuxnet.

Stuxnet is believed to have been written through a partnership between Israel and the United States, and was first launched in June 2009. It is widely believed to have been designed to sabotage centrifuges used in Iran’s uranium enrichment program. DuQu was an espionage tool discovered on machines in Iran, Sudan, and elsewhere in 2011 that was designed to steal documents and other data from machines. Stuxnet and DuQu appeared to have been built on the same framework, using identical parts and using similar techniques.

But Flame doesn’t resemble either of these in framework, design or functionality.

Researchers aren’t certain how Flame infects its initial target before spreading to other machines, but this graph suggests possible infection vectors. Courtesy of Kaspersky

Stuxnet and DuQu were made of compact and efficient code that was pared down to its essentials. Flame is 20 megabytes in size, compared to Stuxnet’s 500 kilobytes, and contains a lot of components that are not used by the code by default, but appear to be there to provide the attackers with options to turn on post-installation.

“It was obvious DuQu was from the same source as Stuxnet. But no matter how much we looked for similarities [in Flame], there are zero similarities,” Gostev said. “Everything is completely different, with the exception of two specific things.”

One of these is an interesting export function in both Stuxnet and Flame, which may turn out to link the two pieces of malware upon further analysis, Gostev said. The export function allows the malware to be executed on the system.

Also, like Stuxnet, Flame has the ability to spread by infecting USB sticks using the autorun and .lnk vulnerabilities that Stuxnet used. It also uses the same print spooler vulnerability that Stuxnet used to spread to computers on a local network. This suggests that the authors of Flame may have had access to the same menu of exploits that the creators of Stuxnet used.

Unlike Stuxnet, however, Flame does not replicate automatically by itself. The spreading mechanisms are turned off by default and must be switched on by the attackers before the malware will spread. Once it infects a USB stick inserted into an infected machine, the USB exploit is disabled immediately.

This is likely intended to control the spread of the malware and lessen the likelihood that it will be detected. This may be the attackers’ response to the out-of-control spreading that occurred with Stuxnet and accelerated the discovery of that malware.

It’s possible the exploits were enabled in early versions of the malware to allow the malware to spread automatically, but were then disabled after Stuxnet went public in July 2010 and after the .lnk and print spooler vulnerabilities were patched. Flame was launched prior to Stuxnet’s discovery, and Microsoft patched the .lnk and print spooler vulnerabilities in August and September 2010. Any malware attempting to use the vulnerabilities now would be detected if the infected machines were running updated versions of antivirus programs. Flame, in fact, checks for the presence of updated versions of these programs on a machine and, based on what it finds, determines if the environment is conducive for using the exploits to spread.

The researchers say they don’t know yet how an initial infection of Flame occurs on a machine before it starts spreading. The malware has the ability to infect a fully patched Windows 7 computer, which suggests that there may be a zero-day exploit in the code that the researchers have not yet found.

The earliest sign of Flame that Kaspersky found on customer systems is a filename belonging to Flame that popped up on a customer’s machine in Lebanon on Aug. 23, 2010. An internet search on the file’s name showed that security firm Webroot had reported the same filename appearing on a computer in Iran on Mar. 1, 2010. But online searches for the names of other unique files found in Flame show that it may have been in the wild even earlier than this. At least one component of Flame appears to have popped up on machines in Europe on Dec. 5, 2007 and in Dubai on Apr. 28, 2008.

Kaspersky estimates that Flame has infected about 1,000 machines. The researchers arrived at this figure by calculating the number of its own customers who have been infected and extrapolating that to estimate the number of infected machines belonging to customers of other antivirus firms.

All of the infections of Kaspersky customers appear to have been targeted and show no indication that a specific industry, such as the energy industry, or specific systems, such as industrial control systems, were singled out. Instead, the researchers believe Flame was designed to be an all-purpose tool that so far has infected a wide variety of victims. Among those hit have been individuals, private companies, educational institutions and government-run organizations.

Symantec, which has also begun analyzing Flame (which it calls “Flamer”), says the majority of its customers who have been hit by the malware reside in the Palestinian West Bank, Hungary, Iran, and Lebanon. They have received additional reports from customer machines in Austria, Russia, Hong Kong, and the United Arab Emirates.

Researchers say the compilation date of modules in Flame appear to have been manipulated by the attackers, perhaps in an attempt to thwart researchers from determining when they were created.

“Whoever created it was careful to mess up the compilation dates in every single module,” Gostev said. “The modules appear to have been compiled in 1994 and 1995, but they’re using code that was only released in 2010.”

The malware has no kill date, though the operators have the ability to send a kill module to it if needed. The kill module, named browse32, searches for every trace of the malware on the system, including stored files full of screenshots and data stolen by the malware, and eliminates them, picking up any breadcrumbs that might be left behind.

“When the kill module is activated, there’s nothing left whatsoever,” Gostev said.

UPDATE 9am PST: Iran’s Computer Emergency Response Team announced on Monday that it had developed a detector to uncover what it calls the “Flamer” malware on infected machines and delivered it to select organizations at the beginning of May. It has also developed a removal tool for the malware. Kaspersky believes the “Flamer” malware is the same as the Flame malware its researchers analyzed.

Disgrace in Syria

May 29, 2012

Israel Hayom | Disgrace in Syria.

Elliott Abrams is a senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. This piece is reprinted with permission and can be found on Abrams’ blog “Pressure Points” here.

Headlines around the world this weekend tell of a massacre in Syria: Artillery killed 90 people, of whom a third were children, in one village. The Assad regime has of course denied responsibility, but the village was in an area of anti-regime activity and no other group in Syria has the ability to use artillery in this way except the government. Accordingly, even the U.N., in a joint statement from Kofi Annan and Ban Ki-moon, has blamed the government for shelling a residential neighborhood.

This shocking event is no surprise, for the Syrian government has been killing civilians for 14 months and the death toll is now above 12,000. The disgrace is ours, for letting it go on, month after month.

I have previously referred to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s very unfortunate February remark that “world opinion is not going to stand idly by.” Three months later, it is, and so is she. American leadership on Syria is absent, and in its place have come all sorts of excuses and explanations of why we can’t “do more” in Syria.

In this context President Barack Obama’s announcement of a new “Atrocities Prevention Board” a little over a month ago defies parody, when he is in fact watching atrocities occur. The president said:

“We must tell our children about how this evil was allowed to happen — because so many people succumbed to their darkest instincts, and because so many others stood silent ….’Never again’ is a challenge to nations. It’s a bitter truth — too often, the world has failed to prevent the killing of innocents on a massive scale. And we are haunted by the atrocities that we did not stop and the lives we did not save …. Elie [Wiesel] alluded to what we feel as we see the Syrian people subjected to unspeakable violence, simply for demanding their universal rights. And we have to do everything we can. And as we do, we have to remember that despite all the tanks and all the snipers, all the torture and brutality unleashed against them, the Syrian people still brave the streets. They still demand to be heard. They still seek their dignity. The Syrian people have not given up, which is why we cannot give up.”

Those words should be a source of shame today. We “cannot give up” but in fact we are doing next to nothing to help the Syrian people defend themselves, seeking instead excuses for inaction. Those who believed the Gulf Arabs or the Turks would act effectively without American leadership may be forgiven for the error, but an error it was, and this is seen more and more clearly with each passing day and the deaths every day brings in Syria. We have no more excuses.

On the White House website, we are told that the president’s words that day came “after an introduction by Professor Elie Wiesel.” This is misleading, for Wiesel not only introduced the president but took him to task. It’s not surprising that the White House does not show us what Wiesel said about the Holocaust and about Syria today:

“It [the Holocaust] could have been prevented. The greatest tragedy in history could have been prevented had the civilized world spoken up, taken measures in 1939, ‘40, ‘41, ‘42. Each time, in Berlin, Geobbels and the others always wanted to see what would be the reaction in Washington and London and Rome, and there was no reaction, so they felt they could continue. So in this place we may ask: Have we learned anything from it? If so, how is it that Assad is still in power?”

How indeed? In large part because Obama has provided no leadership, apparently preferring to watch these massacres rather than taking the risk of acting. He is, to use Clinton’s phrase, standing idly by, making speeches from time to time but denying the opposition the assistance it needs. If the killing goes on at these levels of brutality, he may be forced to act, but that will not eliminate the stain on his record that these 14 months will leave. An “Atrocities Prevention Board” is a nice thing to have; I’m for it. But I’d trade it in an instant for a president determined to prevent atrocities.

From “Pressure Points” by Elliott Abrams. Reprinted with permission from the Council on Foreign Relations.