WarSclerotic

Time’s running out.

Recent talks in Baghdad between Iran and the P5+1 (the United States, Britain, Germany, France, Russia and China) about Iran’s nuclear program resulted in a defeat for the West and a victory for Iran.

The West was defeated because the talks did nothing to slow down or stop Iran’s nuclear weapons development program, did nothing to deter the Iranian’s from proceeding full speed ahead to develop nuclear weapons for use against Israel, the United States, Europe and their Islamic neighbors in the Middle East, which is of course exactly what they’re doing.

Iran was victorious because it because its strategy of stringing the West along and buying time through duplicity and meaningless negotiations until it successfully develops and possesses nuclear weapons worked yet again.

The West’s defeat and Iran’s victory was a foregone conclusion. For religious and ideological reasons Iran is totally committed to developing and possessing nuclear weapons and totally committed to using them as well, first against Israel, then against the United States and then against the others. Total commitment means total commitment. Short of destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities militarily, there is absolutely nothing the West can do to keep Iran from becoming a nuclear power, not the imposition of more sanctions, not oil embargoes, not more diplomacy, not more meetings, not more condemnation and approbation, nothing.

Iran knows this and the West doesn’t, which is why Iran has been successful in stringing the West along. Iran has manipulated and deceived the West from the beginning and the West in its ignorance, naivete’ and cowardice has been laboring under delusions and making fundamental mistakes from the start.

Israelis on the other hand have no illusions and are fully aware that a nuclear Iran means a nuclear attack on Israel. They know perfectly well that the minute the Iranians become a nuclear power they will launch an attack against Israel in order to wipe the country off the map, to remove it from the face of the earth. They also know that they will have to use their military to keep nuclear weapons out of the Iranians hands because no one else will use theirs and military means are the only thing which will work.

They also know that time is running out and that Iran is much closer to developing and possessing nuclear weapons than the West believes. Just recently for example the International Atomic Energy Agency discovered that Iran is refining uranium at a rate up to 27 per cent…20 per cent is the rate that it can easily and quickly be turned into weapons grade material and the West was taken by surprise when the IAEA made the discovery because it didn’t think Iran had reached that level yet, never mind a level of 27 per cent.

The West has grossly underestimated Iran’s will, progress and intentions all along and this is just the latest example.

Time’s running out indeed.

Iran talks end in harsh lesson for west – FT Specials News – IBNLive.

Over the past few weeks, there has been growing optimism in western capitals that Iran might be forced into a compromise over its nuclear programme and avoid a war with Israel and the US.

However, after two days of anguished talks this week between Iran and world powers in Baghdad, such hopes were doused in a very cold dose of reality.

As Israel and the US make contingency plans for a possible strike, the six powers – the US, EU, UK, France, Germany, Russia and China – put a proposal to Iran that would have seen Tehran freeze its production of more highly enriched uranium in return for a package of inducements from the US and EU, such as providing parts for Iranian civil aircraft.

But after often fraught bargaining in Baghdad, diplomats left declaring they had made no progress at all. “It’s been a difficult few days,” said a European diplomat in Baghdad. “After our first meeting in Istanbul with Iran a few weeks ago, we were euphoric. Now we’re a lot more realistic about just how difficult this negotiation is.”

The lack of success in the Iraqi capital does not signal the end of the process. The talks between Iran and the international powers still have a few rounds left before the end of this year, when Israel and the US must decide on military action.

There was also the occasional indication in Baghdad that Iran is softening its approach to the US. On one occasion, Saeed Jalili, Iran’s chief negotiator, had a brief conversation with Wendy Sherman, the US chief diplomat at the talks. “That’s something he hasn’t been willing to do before,” said a diplomat. “You can call it a semi-brush-by.”

That said, western diplomats left Baghdad under no illusion about how difficult it will be to strike a deal with Iran this year.

Some experts say it would have been surprising if Iran had accepted the package in Baghdad. Acquiring airline parts is a minor concession compared with what Iran is seeking in this negotiation, such as the scaling back of punitive sanctions and securing international acceptance of its right to uranium enrichment.

Besides, Tehran has room for manoeuvre, particularly because the US is determined that talks must not break down before its presidential election.

Washington is desperate to stop Israel carrying out an attack before November – an event that would drag the US into war and also destabilise President Barack Obama’s chances of re-election. “As a result, Jalili could come to the talks retaining his maximalist bargaining position that Iran will give away nothing unless sanctions are reversed,” said a diplomat.

Some diplomats leaving Baghdad said a positive feature of the meetings was that Iran engaged in discussion of its nuclear programme, something it has not done before. “In [the April meeting in] Istanbul, they didn’t want to discuss anything,” said a diplomat. “In Baghdad, they did get into details.”

However, what is also clear is that the negotiations will get a great deal harder if there is no clear progress at the next meeting in Moscow on June 18. The meeting comes just before US and EU energy and banking sanctions take full effect on July 1, after which a breakthrough will be much more difficult.

At the same time, failure at Moscow will force Mr Obama to ratchet up the rhetoric against the regime in order to counter Republican accusations that he is being strung along by Iranian prevarication.

And while negotiators await the outcome of the Moscow talks, contingency planning for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is intensifying in the US and Israel.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2012