WarSclerotic

A critical test for diplomacy – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

This week’s Baghdad summit is not only an effort to neutralize the Iranian nuclear threat, but also to neutralize the Israeli strategic threat.

Yukiya Amano, left, talks with reporters during a news briefing with Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili in Tehran, Iran, Monday, 21, 2012. Photo by AP

The opening of the Baghdad summit tomorrow will be followed by cautious, reserved optimism, alongside historical disbelief. This is a critical summit in which Iran, on one hand, and the “5 +1 group” (the five permanent members of the Security Council plus Germany ), on the other, will try to dismantle the most potentially explosive crisis the world has seen in decades.

The results of the summit will determine whether the military option (i.e., an attack on Iran ) is the only brake capable of stopping Iran’s aspirations for nuclear weapons – even despite regional and international repercussions which could alter the global strategic map.

Among Western states, a two-faced consensus prevails. It is agreed that Iran must not be permitted to obtain nuclear weapons, but there exists on their part no desire or ability to destroy its nuclear capabilities. This consensus only partially satisfies Israel’s aspirations. Israel is convinced, at least according to its leaders’ declarations, that it is capable of stopping, even temporarily, the Iranian nuclear race.

The disagreement with Israel is not only over the capability, but also over the refusal of the Western states (along with Russia and China ) to let Israel carry out its global strategy and confront them with faits accomplis whose results they, and not Israel alone, will have to deal with.

To a large extent, the Baghdad summit is, therefore, not only an effort to neutralize the Iranian nuclear threat, but also to neutralize the Israeli strategic threat. Presumably, no side will get everything it wants in Baghdad. Ending the crisis, halting the uranium enrichment to a military level and preventing the production of nuclear weapons in Iran – if these are agreed upon at all, they will require more conferences and feed more frustrations.

In addition to the military option, whether Israeli or global (neither of which the summit takes off the table ), the diplomatic effort must also be supported. We must allow it to open a non-violent channel and hope for its success. Israel, of all states, which succeeded in enlisting the world against Iran, is not entitled now to undermine the world effort intended, among other things, and perhaps even chiefly, to protect it.

Obama’s preference for talks with Iran faces test – WBOC-TV 16, Delmarvas News Leader, FOX 21 –.

By BRADLEY KLAPPER and MATTHEW LEE
Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) – President Barack Obama’s preferred path to end the Iranian nuclear standoff faces a stern test this week when world powers sit down with Iran in another bid to press it to meet international demands to prove it is not trying to develop nuclear weapons. Failure will strengthen calls for military action.

Wednesday’s talks in Baghdad come at a critical juncture in the almost decade-long effort to persuade Iran’s government to halt its enrichment of uranium and allow unfettered access to international inspectors, with Israel continuing to speak of a possible attack. Republican rival Mitt Romney also has derided Obama’s engagement efforts, putting pressure on the president to deliver progress soon.

The chief of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, Yukiya Amano, was in Tehran on Monday, hoping to reach a deal that would allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to resume a long-stalled search for evidence that Iran worked secretly to build nuclear arms. Amano, on his first visit to Iran since becoming IAEA head in 2009, said his initial meetings were held in a “good atmosphere,” suggesting a breakthrough may not be impossible.

At the same time, however, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose country sees Iran as a threat to its very existence, reminded world powers they need to be tough.

“Iran wants to destroy Israel, and it is developing nuclear weapons to fulfill that goal,” he said. Iran insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only.

The Obama administration is being vague about its immediate goals. Despite warning of an increasingly narrow time frame for a negotiated agreement, officials say the discussions in Iraq’s capital will gauge Tehran’s seriousness and explore elements of a possible agreement. The strategy aims to avoid the all-or-nothing stakes that have derailed previous talks. Even within the administration, attitudes range from skeptical to extremely cautious.

“The pressure will be on the Iranians to demonstrate continued good faith,” White House press secretary Jay Carney said last week, calling on Tehran to address its nuclear program “in concrete ways” with the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany. He said sanctions and pressure on Iran would continue as well, led by the United States.

Congress is about to negotiate bipartisan legislation to green-light stronger sanctions. The Senate on Monday approved tough new penalties on the Tehran regime, while the House passed its version of the measure in December.

Asked about the objective for Baghdad, State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said, “We want to see a really concrete, serious discussion about steps that will demonstrate that we are moving in the right direction.”

Obama opposes a near-term military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities and has pressed Israel to give diplomacy and sanctions time to work. He insists that military options are available should talks fail, a position that clashes with Netanyahu and increasingly hawkish Republicans who want him to act even tougher.

Netanyahu in particular has charged the process with being too accommodating to Tehran. “I see no evidence whatsoever that Iran is serious about ending its nuclear program,” he said last week.

For all the talk of a positive atmosphere, U.S. officials have struggled to demonstrate any progress so far. They cautiously welcomed last month’s opening meeting in Istanbul but pushed off the harder questions until after this week’s follow-up talks. Official comments have continued to stress the importance of the process over single rounds of discussions, suggesting there may no breakthrough following the Baghdad meeting.

But patience isn’t inexhaustible. Many in the United States have accepted the Jewish state’s argument that Iran’s enrichment activity may be too far along and buried too deep underground after this summer for Israel to take military action. And a solid majority of Americans support the option of military action against Iran to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey.

Lengthy negotiations without a clear outcome would enrage Israel because Iran would presumably continue expanding its nuclear program in the meantime. For Obama, however, the talks are a calculated political risk.

On the one hand, they buy his administration some time on a tough decision over possible military action at a time of fevered partisan debate linked to November’s presidential election. But if the process collapses before then, it would undermine Obama’s claims of sturdy leadership on national security issues, from winding down America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to killing al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.

The U.S.-Israeli disconnect has spilled over repeatedly into America’s presidential race, with GOP candidates jockeying throughout the primary season to position themselves as the best defenders of Israel’s security. Since emerging as the party’s clear nominee, Romney has continued to accuse Obama of sacrificing Israel’s interests, arguing several times that his re-election would guarantee Iran’s production of a bomb.

But a military response is not without pitfalls, which could explain why Romney has shied away from explicitly threatening American strikes anytime soon.

An attack may set back Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons capability but would be unlikely to deliver a death blow to the program. And Iran can retaliate in several ways against U.S. interests, from disrupting Mideast oil deliveries to supporting proxy terrorists against allies such as Israel or unstable states like Lebanon.

Avoiding these constraints, Republicans have focused their criticism of Obama for holding talks with Iran at all.

“The administration’s foolish embrace of yet another round of negotiations will only embolden the regime,” said Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., the chairwoman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “The administration has made concession after concession in its negotiations with Iran only to come (home) empty-handed. The Iranian approach seems to be, ‘What’s mine is mine, and what’s yours is negotiable.'”

Ros-Lehtinen referred to diplomatic rumblings suggesting the Obama administration could allow Iran to enrich low-grade uranium if it halted activity at levels closer to weapons-grade material. The United States has long demanded an end to all Iranian enrichment, in line with U.N. Security Council resolutions, along with unfettered access for inspectors and the transfer of already enriched stockpiles out of the country.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and other officials have denied that the U.S. is changing its position on enrichment.

Thus, if Iran maintains a hard line on enriching uranium, even at lower levels for nuclear fuel production, it would put the Obama administration in a difficult spot between joining its international partners who would prefer to meet the Iranians halfway and appearing weak in an election season.

Naveh: Assad still controls chemical weapons – JPost – Defense.

By YAAKOV KATZ

05/22/2012 10:20

Deputy IDF chief says Syria’s surface-to-air missile capabilities growing, could be transferred to Hezbollah, which also has 60,000 missiles; could take IAF hours to beat defenses before broader attack.

Photo: Reuters

Despite the ongoing upheaval in Syria, President Bashar Assad is still in control of Syria’s advanced weaponry, including its chemical weapons arsenal, Deputy IDF Chief of Staff Maj.-Gen. Yair Naveh said on Tuesday.

“The missile, rocket and chemical capabilities are remarkably still under control by the current regime,” Naveh said at the 2012 Conference on Air and Land Jointness in Zichron Ya’acov.

He revealed that Syria has spent $3 billion in recent years on advanced Russian surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems such as the SA-15, SA-17 and SA-22.

“These have already been transferred to the Syrians and may one day be transferred from Syria to Hezbollah,” Naveh said. “The existence of these systems creates a reality in which the Israel Air Force will need several hours to first deal with the air defense systems before turning to other missions.” The proliferation of these system needs to concern not just Israel, but also the entire world, Naveh said.

Naveh also said that Hezbollah has today 60,000 rockets and missiles, including a number of M600s that have superior range and a high level of accuracy.

Naveh also warned of the growing threat of GPS jammers throughout the region which could undermine the IDF’s ability to accurately hit targets inside Lebanon, Gaza or Syria ins a future war.

“The IDF is investing in accurate firepower from the air and precise munitions from the ground,” he said. “We will need tens of thousands of precision guided munitions and will need to overcome GPS jamming.”

Netanyahu warns world powers not to let Iran ‘push them around’ – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

PM hardens stance on eve of nuclear talks; says Israel’s position ‘has not changed and will not change.’

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a special cabinet meeting marking Jerusalem Day at Ammunition Hill in Jerusalem May 20, 2012. Photo by AP

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday warned the world powers against letting Iran “push them around,” toughening his stance in a last-ditch effort to head off a nuclear agreement between the world powers and Iran at talks slated to start Wednesday in Baghdad.

The prime minister restated his desired outcome from the talks between Iran and the six world powers: that Iran to stop all uranium enrichment, get rid of all enriched uranium already produced, and dismantle the underground enrichment facility at Fordo.

“Only that way can we be sure that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. That is Israel’s stance. It has not changed, and it will not change,” Netanyahu said at a Civil Service Commission ceremonyImplying that the U.S., Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany were acting naively in the face of Iranian deceit, he said: “During the last few weeks I’ve heard those who would doubt Iranian intentions. They say that when Iran’s leaders declare their desire to wipe Israel off the map, the comments actually mean something else in Farsi.”

He added: “It would be interesting to hear what they have to say about comments made by the chief of staff of Iran’s military just yesterday, that Iran must destroy Israel.”

The prime minister said Iran’s objective is to destroy Israel, and that the Islamic Republic is developing nuclear weapons toward that end. “Iran threatens Israel and world peace in general. The world’s leading powers must be steadfast in the face of these evil intentions. They need not make concessions to Iran, but rather make unequivocal demands,” he said.

While Netanyahu’s comments were phrased diplomatically, those issuing from other senior Israeli officials who spoke on condition of anonymity were much sharper. “The West is already caving in to Iran,” said one official.The prime minister’s comments reflect a fear in Jerusalem that the talks between the six powers and Iran will result in an intermediate agreement that would not satisfy Israel on the one hand, and lead to the talks’ continuation for many months on the other. In that event, an Israeli military option against Iranian nuclear facilities would be off the table.

Netanyahu’s remarks contrasted sharply with the more optimistic statements coming from Washington, Paris, Berlin, and London that have raised the possibility of a breakthrough in talks with Iran.

The outline of a possible intermediate agreement would allow Iran to enrich uranium to the level of 20%, a potential transition stage to weapons-grade fuel. Such an agreement would also end enrichment activities at the fortified underground Fordo complex, and require Iran to give up the 100 kilograms of 20%-enriched uranium it has now.

In return, the world powers would agree to suspend some of the sanctions that have been leveled against the Islamic Republic. An EU oil embargo, as well as U.S. sanctions against Iran’s central bank, are set to go into effect July 1, but no new sanctions would be introduced. Iran would also receive a supply of nuclear fuel rods to power its research reactors.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned against complacency and naivete by the U.S. and other world powers. Barak said he told officials during a visit to Washington last week that Iran will try to present a false front of progress, meant to relieve some of the pressure from the world powers, before asking the West not to level any more sanctions.

“Unfortunately, despite the worldwide declarations, it is unclear to us that the world is willing to bring Iran to a crossroads, at which it will have to decide to continue its nuclear program or not,” said Barak.

Meanwhile, talks between UN nuclear chief Yukiya Amano concluded on Monday without any breakthroughs on supervision of Iran’s nuclear facilities, which are suspected of being used to produce nuclear weapons. Amano said the talks “were effective and held in a ‘good atmosphere,’ and they will have a positive impact on negotiations between Iran and [the six powers],” but did not specify what agreements, if any, were made.

Gantz and Chinese Counterpart Meet – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Gantz in China

IDF Spokesperson’s Unit

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz met in China on Monday with his Chinese counterpart, General Chen Bindnge.

Chen, who visited Israel in August, said that his meeting with Gantz “left a deep impression of a strong and advanced army with commitment and patriotism.” He also welcomed the warming relations between the IDF and the Chinese army.

According to an IDF statement released Monday evening, during his meeting with the Chinese commander, Gantz “reviewed the strategic situation and the regional threats before a panel that included Chinese military officials. He expressed his appreciation for China’s influence in the international arena and in the region.”

The statement added that “the two chiefs of staff expressed their satisfaction with the relationship between the two armies and the commitment to continue to develop them.”

Military sources told Channel 2 News on Monday that the visit was “strategic and decisive. Gantz was received with great respect and his chemistry with the Chinese defense leadership is great. During the meetings it was decided to cooperate in different military matters.”

Gantz’s visit to China is taking place on the eve of critical talks with Iranian officials in Iraq. It is the first time in 16 years the IDF Chief of Staff has visited China.

Gantz has already won a previously unscheduled private meeting with Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping of China. Xi Jinping is expected to be the next president, and the invitation for a personal visit was seen as evidence of the warm way in which the lieutenant-general is being received.

Gantz’s visit to China will include observing a live-fire exercise and a tour of the Jewish museum in Shanghai.

PM: No concessions for Iran – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Ahead of talks between Iran and major powers, Netanyahu reiterates demand to bring Tehran’s nuclear program to complete halt, urges international community to remain firm in its stance

Boaz Fyler

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday said that “Iran wants to destroy Israel and is developing nuclear weapons to that end.”

Speaking at a Civil Service Commission ceremony, Netanyahu noted that “Iran is threatening Israel and the whole world,” and urged the international community to “remain firm and not make any concessions.”

The prime minister added that he has heard “many voices in recent weeks that cast doubt on Iran’s intentions. They say that when Iran’s leaders say they want to wipe Israel off the map, they actually mean something else in Persian.

“I wonder what they have to say about Iran’s chief of staff, who declared yesterday that his country is committed to the full destruction of Israel. As simple as that.”

‘Iran is threatening Israel, the whole world,’ Netanyahu (Photo: GPO)

Netanyahu reiterated his demand that Iran halts all uranium enrichment, saying that it is necessary to “remove enriched nuclear material from the country and dismantle the underground nuclear facilities near Qom.

“This is the only way to ensure that Iran does not acquire a nuclear bomb. This is Israel’s position – it has not changed, and will not change,” he said.

Netanyahu’s comments come amid ongoing talks between the Islamic Republic and the six major powers, which are meant to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The sides are scheduled to meet for a second round of talks in Baghdad on Tuesday.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak also commented on talks with Iran, saying that Israel is “very skeptical about Iran’s intentions.

“I predict that the Iranians will try to appear as if they are making progress, in order to reduce some of the international pressure,” Barak noted.

Earlier on Monday, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Yukiya Amano met officials in Tehran, saying he held “frank” talks with Iranian officials over the country’s nuclear program.

US Senate unanimously approves n… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

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Photo: Thinkstock/Imagebank

The US Senate unanimously approved on Monday a package of new economic sanctions on Iran’s oil sector just days ahead of a meeting in Baghdad between major world powers and Tehran.

The West suspects Iran is working to build a nuclear bomb and the sanctions are meant to strip Tehran of revenue by shutting down financial deals with Iran’s powerful state oil and tanker enterprises. Iran has said its nuclear program is for civilian purposes.

The House of Representatives passed its version of the bill in December and now the Senate and House must work out their differences in the legislation.

“This bill is another tool that will demonstrate to Iran that the United States is not backing down,” Robert Menendez, the Democratic senator who helped craft the legislation, said on the Senate floor.

“Today the US Senate put Iranian leaders on notice that they must halt all uranium enrichment activities or face another round of economic sanctions from the United States,” said Republican Senator Mark Kirk, a co-author of the bill, in a statement.

New measures against oil industry build on banking sanctions

The new sanctions build on penalties signed into law by US President Barack Obama in December against foreign institutions trading with Iran’s central bank. Those sanctions already have cut deeply into Iran’s oil trade.

The new package would extend sanctions to cover dealings with the National Iranian Oil Co and National Iranian Tanker Co, aiming to close a potential loophole that could have allowed Tehran, the world’s third-largest petroleum exporter, to continue selling some of its oil.

The cumulative impact of US sanctions will be severe, said Suzanne Maloney, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Saban Center for Middle East Policy.

“Right now, both sides are playing a game of chicken – the Iranians want to see how much they can get and how little they can give, whereas Washington and its allies are counting on the looming threat of impending sanctions to elicit more concessions on the part of Tehran,” Maloney said.

But a former CIA analyst for the Near East and Persian Gulf region said the sanctions could be counterproductive ahead of the Baghdad talks on Iran’s nuclear program by making Tehran think that the West is less interested in a deal than in undermining the regime.

“The biggest requirement now for getting an agreement is not to pile on still more sanctions, but instead to persuade the Iranians that if they make concessions the sanctions will be eased,” said Paul Pillar, now a security studies professor at Georgetown University.

The Senate bill was brought up on Thursday but was blocked by Republicans who wanted some parts toughened up. Senator John McCain said the revised bill shows “we need a comprehensive policy” to include economic sanctions, diplomacy, military planning capabilities and options.

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said the revisions show Iran “that all options are on the table, in order to prevent any contrary perception that silence on the use of force would have created.”

The bill also includes language from Senator Rand Paul that it does not authorize force against Iran, a Paul spokeswoman said