WarSclerotic

Israel slams Western powers for ‘bowing down’ to Iran on nuclear program – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

While UN nuclear chief visits Tehran, Netanyahu says Western powers cannot show weakness or give in to Iran on its nuclear program.

Two days before the second round of nuclear talks between Iran and world powers in Baghdad, senior Israeli officials criticized the diplomats in charge of negotiations with the Islamic Republic. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu commented on the upcoming talks, saying that “the Western powers must not reveal any weakness while dealing with Iran, and must not cave in on any aspect of its nuclear program.”

 “The west is bowing down to Iran, and at the same time the chief of staff of Iranian military chief is revealing Iran’s true intentions, as he calls for the destruction of Israel,” said one official, on condition of anonymity.

The official’s comment referenced the speech made by the top ranking officer in the Iranian military, which received coverage from one of Iran’s news agencies. During the speech, the Iranian military chief of staff called for the destruction of the state of Israel.

Earlier on Monday, Defense Minister Ehud Barak commented on the upcoming talks in Baghdad, and stated that the Iranians will attempt to display a false front of progress, meant to relieve some of the pressure on the world powers – before asking the west not to level any more sanctions.

“Israel believes that a standard must be set, which will not allow Iran to make any progress. Unfortunately, despite the worldwide declarations, it is unclear to us that the world to bring Iran to a crossroads, at which it will have to decide to continue its nuclear program or not,” said Barak.

Also on Monday, United Nations nuclear chief, Yukiya Amano, said talks with Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator were extensive and would have a positive impact on Iran’s negotiations with world powers later this week, Iranian media reported on Monday.

“We held expanded and intensive negotiations in a good atmosphere. Definitely, the progress of talks will have a positive impact on negotiations between Iran and P5+1,” Amano was quoted by Iran’s state television website as saying.

Asked about a framework agreement that would resolve questions over Iran’s nuclear program quickly, Amano added: “I will not go into details but the agency has some viewpoints and Iran has its own specific viewpoints.”

Ar Force chief: Discussion on I… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

West of Eden- – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Rather than leading to war with Iran, Israel’s new national unity government may have to explain why an attack is no longer an option.

World leaders attend the family photo session during the G-8 Summit at Camp David, Md., Saturday, May 19, 2012. Photo by AP

By Barak Ravid | May.21,2012 | 12:14 PM | 32

The granddaddy of all ‘October Surprises’ is the one that wasn’t: the 1980 release of 52 Americans taken hostage by Iran which, according to conspiracy theorists, didn’t take place on the eve of the presidential elections because of a secret deal made by Ronald Reagan, who was terrified of a last minute boost for his rival, President Jimmy Carter. In exchange, so the debunked theory goes, the Reagan Administration agreed to supply the new Islamic regime in Tehran with weapons via its willing accomplice, Israel, in what became known as the Iran-Contra Affair.

32 years later, the same characters are back on stage, but with a completely different cast and a script that has yet to be written. The Israeli press has been rife in recent days with reports of an imminent nuclear deal between the superpowers and the Iranian regime. Such an agreement would pose a daunting political challenge for Israel, compounded ten times over by the American presidential campaign. The “October Surprise”, if not handled correctly, could turn out to be a political time bomb, though it’s not clear in whose hands it will detonate.

The chances that Israel would endorse an agreement with Iran are slim: Iran will never accept Israel’s all-or-nothing conditions nor will it accede to Israel’s stringent demands for verification. If an agreement is reached between the P5+1 forum with Iran, it will almost by definition be one that Israel is suspicious of. One way or another, any agreement, even a temporary or limited one, would preclude, at least for the time being, any possibility of an Israeli military attack on Iran’s nuclear installations. Even if Israel is deeply dissatisfied with the provisions of an agreement with Tehran, it seems almost unthinkable that it would flout an international consensus and launch an attack that would turn the entire world against it. From this point of view, perhaps the establishment of a broad-based national unity government will serve a purpose that is the exact opposite to the one envisioned for it by several American commentators: rather than giving political backing to an Israeli attack, it will provide cover for an Israeli government that tells the country that such an option no longer exists.

Israel’s leadership, especially Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, will then have to decide on its public reaction. The Republican leaders, needless to say, will be waiting to take their lead from the Israeli prime minister before launching their pre-planned onslaught against Obama “the appeaser” who is once again “throwing Israel under the bus”, as Mitt Romney often says, in order to “kowtow to his Muslim masters”, as the President’s more fanatic detractors believe. On the other side of the political divide, the suspicion and distrust that is a permanent feature of the relations between the White House in Washington and the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem may cast even the most legitimate Israeli protest criticism as an attempt to intervene in the American elections on behalf of Netanyahu’s conservative allies.

The situation among American voters is no less complex. According to the survey published last week by the Pew Research Institute, a massive majority of Americans supports tougher sanctions against Iran and a solid majority also supports a military strike, if necessary. But all of this is contingent on no diplomatic breakthrough being achieved and on an American assessment that Iran is continuing its drive for nuclear weapons. If an agreement is nonetheless reached in the nuclear talks, now or in the summer, Republican voters will most likely have a similar gut reaction to that of most Israelis and will assume that the Iranians are pulling the wool over Obama’s gullible eyes in order to gain precious time. But a majority of the American public is likely to go along with the Administration’s call on such an agreement, especially in light of Obama’s relatively high approval ratings on national security affairs. The Administration’s spin doctors, one can assume, won’t forget to remind everyone that an agreement with Iran defuses tensions in the Middle East and prevents a spike in oil prices that may have sent the American economy into a tailspin.

The effects of an agreement with Iran are unquantifiable at this point; it could, for example, put the entire issue on a back burner until the end of the year and thus not play a major role in the election campaign. And while the Iran hostage crisis undoubtedly contributed to Carter’s 1980 defeat, he was also plagued by a weak economy and by a dismal debate performance in which he cited his 12-year-old daughter Amy’s opinions on nuclear arms control and succumbed to Reagan’s folksy rendering of “there you go again” and ultimate punch line “are you better off than you were four years ago?”

History, in any case, does not repeat itself, and if it does, as Karl Marx said, it comes first as tragedy and then as farce. Given the high existential stakes for Israel of Iran’s nuclear drive, and the undeniable fact that Carter already cornered the market on farcical in 1980, the concern is that Marx’s general assessment was correct and the only thing he got wrong was the sequence.

Israel Hayom | West to use carrot approach with Iran in upcoming talks.

Israel Hayom | Talks aim not to thwart Iran nukes, but to stop Israeli attack.

ANALYSIS: The latest negotiations between Western powers and Iran seem more intent on preventing Israeli military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities than stopping the progress of Tehran’s nuclear program..

IDF Tries to Sway China before Talks with Iran – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Gantz at an exercise.

IDF Spokesman’s Unit

IDF Chief of Staff  Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz is meeting with his Chinese counterpart this week on the eve of critical talks with Iranian officials in Iraq. It is the first time in 16 years the IDF Chief of Staff has visited China.

China’s Chief-of-Staff General Chen Bindnge, who visited Israel last August, invited Gantz to China, where he already has won a previously unscheduled private meeting with Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping of China. Xi Jinping is expected to be the next president, and the invitation for a personal visit was seen as evidence of the warm way in which the lieutenant-general is being received.

Gantz’s visit to China will include observing a liהe-fire exercise and a tour of the Jewish museum in Shanghai.

Gantz is to “discuss current security and strategic challenges, the regional security status in the Middle East and military cooperation,” IDF spokesmen said.

The talks in Iraq come against the background of harsh economic sanctions on Iran, mostly of them opposed by China, as Tehran continues its nuclear program without supervision.

China has a vested interest in Iran due to its being a major purchaser of Iranian oil.

China once enjoyed a growing military trade with Israel, but in 2005 Israel was forced by the United States to cancel a huge contract to update Chinese drones. Washington feared the American technology in the Israeli drones could be used by China against American allies.

The American ban on Israel’s selling military equipment to China remains in force, and Gantz is not expected to discuss possible back-door sales.

Israel inches closer to compromise on Iran uranium enrichment, officials say – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Senior Israeli official says that publicly, Israel will continue to talk tough on Iran to make sure the six powers don’t rush into an agreement with Tehran.

By Barak Ravid | May.21, 2012 | 1:01 AM | 29

IAEA chief Yukiya Amano speaks to media before his flight to Iran, May 20, 2012. Photo by AP

By Amir Oren | May.21,2012 | 1:01 AM | 3

With the second round of nuclear talks between Iran and the six major powers due to begin in Tehran on Wednesday, senior Israeli sources say Jerusalem may be more flexible about Iranian low-level uranium enrichment than it is currently willing to let on.

Though Israel has been expressing zero flexibility regarding a possible deal with Iran, Defense Minister Ehud Barak a few weeks ago issued a written statement that Israel would consent to Iran’s continuing enrichment of uranium to a low level of 3.5 percent, as well as to allowing a few hundred kilograms of 3.5-percent enriched uranium to remain in that country.

“Enrichment percentage” refers to the degree to which natural uranium has been enriched with the U-235 isotope – an isotope which can sustain a chain reaction of nuclear fission. Reactor-grade uranium is enriched to about 3 to 4 percent, while weapons-grade uranium is 90 percent enriched. However, crude nuclear weapons can be built with uranium enriched to as low as 20 percent.

A senior Israeli source said that Barak’s remarks, which were shared in private conversations with U.S. officials, contradict the tough line being presented by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has demanded that Iran stop all uranium enrichment and give up any enriched uranium it has in its possession.

More recently, Barak has publicly toed Netanyahu’s line, but the assessment is that the things the defense minister said in his statement represent the limited concession Israel is willing to make to enable the P5 +1 powers – the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany – to continue discussions with Iran.

It seems now that those countries and Iran are seeking an interim agreement, under which Iran would stop enriching uranium to a level of 20 percent. This would mean that the enrichment process at the reinforced underground facility in Fordo, near Qom, would essentially stop. It would also mean Iran would have to give up some 100 kilograms of 20-percent enriched uranium it already has.

In return, the six powers would cease efforts to impose new sanctions on Iran: While the European Union’s oil embargo will go into effect on July 1 as scheduled, as will American sanctions against Iran’s central bank – no additional limitations will be imposed. In addition, Iran would be sent a shipment of nuclear fuel rods for its research reactor.

A senior Israeli official said on Sunday that publicly, Israel will continue to talk tough on Iran to make sure the six powers don’t rush into an agreement with Tehran.

“We’re the indicator on the right,” the official said. “We are aware that the powers want to come to an agreement with Iran, which is why we are warning against euphoria. A good atmosphere during the negotiations with Iran is liable to be addictive.”

Sources note that it is clear that as long as negotiations between Iran and the six powers are continuing, the Israeli option of attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities remains in abeyance. In such a situation, Israel can do little except warn the P5 +1 against falling into an Iranian honey trap.

At a press conference on Sunday with U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said that Israel still doesn’t see any willingness on Iran’s part to give up its nuclear ambitions.

“From Iran’s perspective the talks are a deception and an effort to buy time,” Lieberman said. “I don’t think the international community has any illusions about Iranian plans or Iran’s readiness to abandon its nuclear military plans.”

Israel gives qualfied okay to Obama’s interim deal with Iran.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 19, 2012, 12:24 PM (GMT+02:00)

Obama and Netanyahu

Israel’s Binyamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak have decided to stand back for Barack Obama to put his interim deal with Iran to the test, debkafile’s sources report. They decided to go along with it despite their reservations after receiving assurances from the White House that any Iranian violations would result in the immediate termination of all negotiations and bring military action forward as the sole remaining option for stopping a nuclear Iran. It was not clear if US intended to exercise the military itself. The Obama administration handed similar assurances to the G-8 leaders meeting at Camp David Saturday May 19.

Israel’s qualified acquiescence to the deal negotiated by Washington was accompanied by assertions by its ministers that Iran was lying about its nuclear intentions and playing the world for a fool. Tehran would therefore not stand up to the test.
Saturday, debkafile’s Washington and Iranian sources exclusively revealed the eight points of the interim deal put forward by Washington and still awaiting Tehran’s concurrence. Read on…Y

Yukiya Amano, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is entrusted with a decisive mission in Tehran Sunday, May 20: collecting Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s broad endorsement of the interim eight-point deal he and US President Barack Obama have drafted through secret dialogue. debkafile has obtained exclusive access to the eight points – with the caveat that they may not be final. The details are still to be hammered out and proved practicable. But the way the deal stands now, it will be unacceptable to Israel because if affords Iran enough leeway to carry on developing a nuclear bomb program with no real hindrance.
The White House is waiting tensely for Khamenei’s nod to activate the link promised by Obama between their back-track talks and the formal negotiations the Six Powers (P5+1) negotiations with Iran, which go forward in Baghdad on May 23. This link would grant the bilateral US-Iranian deal UN-world power imprimatur and vindicate the US president’s contested Iran policy.
From that moment, Israel would find it doubly hard to go through with its military option against Iran’s nuclear sites without risk of international isolation and opprobrium.
Until that moment, the Obama administration had found Israel’s threatening stance useful for bending Iran to a diplomatic accommodation on its nuclear plans, while at the same time holding Jerusalem back from actually going through with its threat.
It was this double game that made the US-Iranian dialogue workable.
It was also used adroitly by Khamenei to achieve another of the Islamic Republic’s key strategic goals, to destroy the abiding friendship between the US and the Zionist state. The Iranian leader’s main argument to his colleagues in support of his secret dealings with the US president was that sanctions were well worth enduring if at the end of the road a deal with the US forced a breach between Washington and Jerusalem and so substantially weakened the Jewish state.

debkafile has obtained exclusive access to the eight-point draft with the caveat that it may not be final; the details remained to be hammered out and proved practicable:

1. Because the US and Iran agree that a real and comprehensive accord for halting Tehran’s nuclear program is unobtainable, they are accepting an interim agreement with each party at liberty to interpret its substance and future implementation in its own manner.
debkafile:  This wording allows Obama to assure the American voter and Western public that Tehran has capitulated on its nuclear ambitions while, at the same time, Khamenei portrays America to Iranians and Muslims as having yielded on recognizing Iran’s right to develop an independent nuclear program, enrich uranium and continue its drive for a bomb.

2.  Iran will suspend uranium enrichment up to the near-weapons grade of 20 percent but not dismantle or stop work at the Fordo underground nuclear plant as Israel demands.
3.  Iran will export its stock of 110 kilograms of 20-percent enriched uranium which can be used for producing a weapon. This material will be reprocessed and returned as fuel plates from which it is much more difficult though not impossible to make a bomb.

4. No ceiling will be placed on the production of low-enriched uranium of 3.5-5 percent purity. debkafile: Washington tacitly grants this concession by leaving it off the record.
5.  Iran will sign the Non-Proliferation Accord’s additional protocol and so permit the expansion of IAEA on-site inspections.
6.  The secret Iranian nuclear sites of which Washington has no explicit knowledge will also be omitted from the record and therefore outside the sphere of international inspection.
debkafile: The guiding principle governing America’s approach to the eight-point interim accord therefore is, “Don’t know; don’t want to see.”
7.  The US and European Union will dilute sanctions against Iran stage by stage. debkafile: Here too, dual tactics will be used: The formal embargo on Iran’s central bank and its exclusion from the SWIFT international money transfer system will not be formally annulled. However a blind eye will be applied to any small banks in the West executing Iran’s international business, just as the sanction-busting measures used by China, Russia, India and Turkey to their trade with Iran, were tolerated.
8.  The US and Europe will revoke the oil embargo due to go into effect on July 1, 2012.

debkafile: While the Obama administration has given its “agreement-in-principle on the interim deal,” the Iranian leader has not yet endorsed it. Hence the Amano mission to Tehran Sunday.
If he comes away with a nod from Tehran, Obama will have achieved two key objectives:  the world power talks with Iran can proceed through sessions spaced several weeks apart until the November date of the US presidential election, and Israel will be constrained from striking Iran before that date.

Last week, Israel reiterated its demand for Iran to stop uranium enrichment at any grade and dismantle the Fordo nuclear facility as non-negotiable.

The interim agreement drafted by Obama and Khamenei will therefore be unacceptable to Israel because it provides for neither and so affords Iran enough leeway to carry on developing a nuclear bomb program with no real hindrance.

Leadership window dressing at G8 and NATO summits.

DEBKAfile Special Report May 21, 2012, 11:02 AM (GMT+02:00)

Conferring with the NATO Secy-Gen.

On the return flight to Moscow, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov filled in the space left by his Prime Minister Dmitri Medvadev’s silence at Camp David Saturday, May 20 with a large dose of skepticism on Iran.
Contradicting President Barack Obama’s statement that diplomacy was preferable to military action, Ryabkov said that the G8 leaders’ readiness to tap into emergency oil stockpiles quickly this summer “is one of the many various signals coming from various sources that the military option (on Iran) is considered as realistic and possible.”
He added: “We are receiving signals, both through public and intelligence channels, that this option is now being reviewed in some capitals as more applicable in this situation,’ said the Russian official.
debkafile: His words to reporters were in fact a Russian signal to Tehran not to trust American diplomacy and concessions because the US and its allies were at the same time preparing for war.

As for the NATO weekend summit in Chicago, the decisions taken under Barack Obama’s leadership appear even less feasible. NATO issued a strong statement of support for the Eurozone. However, none of the leaders present came with remedies for pulling the continent out of its existential economic crisis.

Sunday, May 20, a former Greek finance minister warned that kicking Greece out would “open the gates of hell for Europe,” while British economists warned the UK economy “would never recover” if the euro collapsed.

The decision to withdraw all alliance troops from Afghanistan by the year 2014 is technically unfeasible so long as Pakistan refuses to allow them to cross through its territory and depart from its Indian Ocean and Arab Sea ports.

IAEA chief kicks off talks with … JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

( My apologies for the lack of posts the last few days.  My travel up north made it impossible for me to post. – JW )

Photo: REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger

United Nations nuclear chief Yukiya Amano started talks with senior Iranian officials on Monday, Iranian media reported, on his one-day visit to Tehran that diplomats say could lead to an agreement for further inspections of Iranian nuclear sites.

Hours after his pre-dawn arrival in Tehran, Amano met the head of Iran’s nuclear energy organization, Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, ISNA news agency reported.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief is also scheduled to meet Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and Iranian foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi during the day.

Amano voiced optimism upon his arrival in Tehran, saying he was hopeful he would be able to reach a deal to investigate suspected atom bomb research – a possible breakthrough that Iran hopes could help ease Western sanctions pressure and deflect threats of war.

“I really think this is the right time to reach agreement. Nothing is certain but I stay positive,” Amano said at Vienna airport, adding “good progress” had already been made.

But though Amano scheduled Monday’s talks with Iran at such short notice that diplomats said agreement on new inspections seemed near, few see Tehran convincing Western governments to ease back swiftly on punitive measures when its negotiators meet big power officials in Baghdad on Wednesday.

By promising cooperation with UN inspectors, diplomats say Iran might aim for leverage ahead of the broader negotiations, where the United States and its allies want Iran to halt works they say are cover for developing nuclear weapons. Western sanctions on Iran’s energy exports, and threats by Israel and Washington of military action, have pushed up world oil prices.

Western diplomats say Amano, a veteran Japanese diplomat, would only make a rare visit to Tehran if he believed a framework agreement to give his inspectors freer hands in their investigation was close.

“We regard the visit… as a gesture of goodwill,” Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi was quoted as saying by the Iranian student news agency. He hoped for agreement on a “new modality” to work with the UN agency that would “help clear up the ambiguities.”

The nuclear watchdog wants access to sites, officials and documents to shed light on activities in Iran that could be used to develop the capability to make nuclear weapons, especially the Parchin military complex southeast of Tehran.

Two meetings between Iran and senior Amano aides in Tehran in January and February failed to make any notable progress. But both sides were more upbeat after a new round of talks in Vienna last week, raising hopes they were making headway.

“We need to keep up the momentum. There has been good progress during the recent round of discussions between Iran and the IAEA,” Amano said, adding he did not expect to visit Parchin during his short stay in Tehran.

Israel remains skeptical over of IAEA-brokered deal

Israel, convinced a nuclear-armed Iran would pose a mortal threat, has – like the United States – not ruled out air strikes to stop Iran’s atomic progress if it deems diplomacy has failed.

Russia’s deputy foreign minister said on Sunday that military action against Iran over its nuclear program was being considered in some Western countries.

“It is one of many various signals coming from various sources that the military option is considered as realistic and possible,” Sergei Ryabkov told reporters on his way back from the weekend’s G8 summit.

Israel has made clear its skepticism about the prospects for diplomacy, saying Iran is just trying to buy time.

“We don’t see any readiness from the Iranian side to give up their nuclear ambitions and for them all the engagement, from our point of view, it’s clear deception,” Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman said on Sunday.