WarSclerotic

The Axis-Israel News – Haaretz Israeli News source..

Israel’s acquisition of three Dolphin subs from Germany will allow it to prepare for almost any future war it may face, be it in Lebanon, Syria, a radicalized Egypt and of course Iran,

By Anshel Pfeffer

With all the attention in recent days given to short-term political developments, an event with long-term implications for regional strategic balance almost escaped serious attention.

Last Thursday, the high command of the Israeli Navy took part in the delivery ceremony of INS Tanin, Israel’s fourth Dolphin submarine, at Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft shipyard in Kiel, Germany. Most of the foreign media reports tend to focus on the rumored special tubes which may also be used by nuclear-tipped missiles. This was the focus of Gunter Grass’ poem on Israel’s dark plans to annihilate the Iranian population. But the real significance of the new submarines Israel is receiving from Germany, three in all, is the huge boost it will give to Israel’s long-range strategic capabilities.

	A German Dolphin submarine.
	Photo by: IDF Spokesperson

Not only will the three additional subs numerically double Israel’s underwater fleet, but the navy is also simultaneously expanding its training course for submariner crews with the eventual goal of having two crews for each ship, rather than one crew per ship that it has today. This will enable a sub to spend more time at sea with a fresh crew, while the other one rests up and prepares back on shore. The first three Dolphins were supplied in the 1990s and are now going through extensive mid-life refurbishments which will equip them for many more years beneath the waves. The new subs are enhanced versions with one major improvement – a new “hybrid” propulsion system which combines the conventional diesel lead-acid battery with an air-independent propulsion electric fuel cell. “Without going into specific details of the new range,” explains a senior naval officer, “the new subs will be able to spend much longer time under water without giving its position away, by coming up to the surface to replenish the air in its engine.”

Tracking and attacking enemy shipping is only one of the Dolphin’s roles. A submarine is basically a mobile base for collecting visual and electronic intelligence, dispatching commandos to distant beaches and launching conventional attacks against targets on shore. Almost any future war the IDF may face, be it in Lebanon, Syria, a radicalized Egypt and of course Iran, can be fought from the sea.

The full complement of three new submarines will not be entirely operational until 2016 at the earliest. But since Israeli military planners are already talking about “the next strike on Iran,” the one that may be carried out four or five years down the line (after the Iranians rebuild their nuclear program following an Israeli or American attack), the advanced underwater capability is very relevant. Along with the three new submarines, the IDF’s most ambitious purchase is a squadron of twenty stealthy F-35s, which in a potential attack would have the role of penetrating air-defenses and carrying out the initial surgical strikes.

But the F-35 is undergoing serious delays in development and early production, and the IAF will probably not have an operational squadron at this rate before 2018. This means that if Iran significantly improves its air-defense system, as can be expected, the next war, or the one after it, could well be launched from underwater.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 10, 2012, 2:06 PM (GMT+02:00)

Damascus terrorized

Beset on two fronts, Bashar Assad rushed his elite Republic Division to Damascus Thursday, May 10, as two massive car bombs in the al Qaza district of Damascus demolished the command center of the Syrian military security service’s reconnaissance division, killing at least 50 people and injuring 170. Over  to the southeast, 12,000 special operations troops from 17 nations, including the US and other NATO members, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, were poised on the Jordanian side of the Syrian border for an exercise codenamed “Eager Lion.”

debkafile’s military sources also disclose that the bomb attack on Damascus was the most serious his regime had suffered against a military target since the 14-month Syrian uprising began. For the first time, Assad moved his most loyal unit, the Republican Guard Brigade, into central Damascus.
Western and Arab pressure is building up to an intolerable pitch for the Syrian president to step down and save his people from the descent into the ultimate agony of a full-blown civil war. It is coming from two directions:
1. Special forces units of the US, France, Britain, Canada and other NATO members have gathered in Jordan alongside Saudi, Jordanian and Qatari special units for a large-scale ten-day military exercise in Jordan starting May 15.
The exercise was set up by the US Special Operations Command Central. It is the Obama administration’s message to the Islamic rulers of Iran, Bashar Assad and his Moscow backers, as well as its answer to the complaints from Arab and other Western governments that America is doing nothing to stop the horrors perpetrated in Syria.
Since all 12,000 troops massed in Jordan are commandos, they stand ready at all times to cross the border into Syria if this is deemed necessary.
2.  Syrian cities, especially the capital, are being targeted for violent bombing attacks designed to bring the Assad regime tumbling down. Behind these attacks are Persian Gulf emirates led by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. debkafile’s intelligence sources disclose they have been joined in the last few days for the first time by Turkey which is contributing intelligence input. The military pressure on the Assad regime is thus reinforced by a campaign of terror against its props.
No connection is admitted between the multinational force on the Jordanian-Syrian border and the spate of bombings. However, if Saudi or Qatari intelligence did play a hand in the Damascus bombings, their special forces in Jordan will have been in the picture.

Obama’s Israel Problem – Up Front Blog – Brookings Institution.

Marvin Kalb, Guest Scholar, Foreign Policy

The Brookings Institution

May 09, 2012 —

White House officials are puzzled why Netanyahu, and many other Israelis, had to worry at all. At the drop of a hat, they are prepared to tick off Obama’s contributions to Israel’s defense. No president, they state with pride, has done more for Israel’s security than Barack Obama. No president has provided more intelligence, more sophisticated weaponry, both offensive and defensive, than Obama. No president has protected Israel’s back at the UN, and at other international organizations, more effectively than Obama. No president has spent more time talking to a foreign leader than Obama has to Natanyahu—in person and on the phone.

All of which is true, confirmed by American and Israeli officials. Never before have contacts between Washington and Jerusalem been as close, as frequent, as collaborative as they have been in recent years. Whether the issue be Iran’s nuclear program, Egypt’s political upheaval or Palestinian uncertainties about the “peace process,” the United States and Israel are described as singing from the same sheet of music, their strategic visions in perfect harmony, even if there are still small tactical differences between them.

Furthermore, Obama could not possibly have been clearer about his support for a strong and independent Israel. “Our ironclad commitment—and I mean ironclad—to Israel’s security,” he stressed in his State of the Union address, “has meant the closest military cooperation between our two countries in history.”

And yet, Israelis still feel uncomfortable with Barack Obama as president of the United States. They still wonder whether, in a secret corner of his heart, he feels a greater sympathy for the Arabs than for them. It almost seems as if the Israelis cannot accept Obama’s frequent pledges of an “ironclad commitment” to their security, as if he has been making such a pledge only for political reasons, his eyes fixed on the upcoming November elections.

Talk to Israelis, as I have had the benefit of doing in recent days. Press them for a logical explanation of their concerns. Roughly, this is what they say.
Obama is an intellectual, who happens to be a politician. He understands the Israelis and their security concerns, but only, it seems, from an intellectual point of view. He does not “feel” Israel. Proof, the Israelis stress, is the president’s naïve, foolish and totally non-productive insistence on an Israeli settlement freeze in the West Bank.

Another reason: when, early in his administration, he was in Cairo to deliver a major address on his approach to the Arab world, he chose not to make the short hop to Jerusalem and explain his approach to the Jewish world. He still has not traveled to Israel, though he has been just about everywhere else. (White House officials, present and former, say no other American president has visited Israel in his first term except Bill Clinton, and he went there primarily to honor the assassinated Israeli Prime Minister, Yitzhak Rabin.)

Still another reason: although statesmen are supposed to base their policies on the national security interests of their countries, these two statesmen have allowed personality differences to influence their attitudes. Netanyahu has been caught lecturing Obama on Jewish history, as though Obama knew nothing about the Holocaust. Insulting?

Trust, the essential ingredient in any close relationship—clearly, the Israelis do not trust Obama any more than he trusts them, but they both know they need each other, especially in the volatile aftermath of the Arab upheaval of last year.

In recent months, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has shuttled between Washington and Jerusalem, sharing intelligence and impressions about the ongoing Iranian nuclear program. As a result, both sides agree that they intend to stop the Iranians from building a nuclear bomb. If there is any difference between them, it is in Israel’s belief that Iran can build a bomb within months. The United States thinks it will take a bit longer. Another small difference is that Israel believes nothing positive will come of the current negotiation with Iran; the United States is a touch more hopeful.

What is clear is that both the United States and Israel have been preparing for a military strike against Iran, although both are hoping it will not be necessary. Will Israel attack first? Will there be a joint attack? Will an attack come before or after national elections in the United States this November? Whatever concerns Israel may harbor about Obama, the military planning in both countries continues. Netanyahu’s latest political deal puts him in a powerful position to act unilaterally, if he feels he cannot depend on Obama, who is politically vulnerable. The clock is ticking, more loudly with each week and month.