JERUSALEM — Less than two weeks ago, Yuval Diskin, the recently retired chief of Israel’s internal security agency, carried out a blistering verbal assaulton Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his defense minister, Ehud Barak, questioning their judgment in handling what they regard as an Iranian nuclear threat and accusing them of making decisions “based on messianic feelings.”

On Tuesday, as Mr. Netanyahu stood shoulder to shoulder with Shaul Mofaz, a former defense minister and military chief of staff and now the leader of the centrist Kadima Party, and welcomed him into the governing coalition, it was as if the prime minister was offering some kind of response, especially for a jittery Israeli public generally averse to a lone Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

While Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Barak have presented an aggressive stance against Iran, Mr. Mofaz is regarded as a more moderate voice who opposes any rush into military action. After becoming head of the opposition in March, he said in a television interview that an early attack on Iran could be “disastrous” and bring “limited results.”

Denouncing what he saw as the government’s Iran-centric policy to the detriment of the peace process with the Palestinians, Mr. Mofaz, who is Iranian-born, also said, in an interview in April, that “the greatest threat to the state of Israel is not a nuclear Iran.” Asked at a news conference on Tuesday about their differences on Iran, Mr. Netanyahu, addressing his home audience in Hebrew, said that their discussions “are serious, and will be serious and responsible.” Often referring to himself and Mr. Mofaz as judicious people, he spoke with an air of gravitas.

Many politicians and analysts argued that far from signaling any change in Israeli policy toward Iran, the inclusion of Mr. Mofaz and Kadima in the coalition would strengthen Mr. Netanyahu’s hand.

Yisrael Katz, the minister of transportation, told Israel Radio that if he were President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, he would be worried “because from today the state of Israel will be more united, both in its ability to deter and also, if necessary, in its ability to act.”

Ayoob Kara, a Likud Party deputy minister, said a strong government was necessary to deal with Iran. “If we are in consensus in Israel,” he said, “it gives us more power.”

Einat Wilf, a legislator from the small Independence faction, led by Mr. Barak, said that it was essential to keep the threat of a military option on the table and that with a broad Israeli consensus, “the credibility is higher.”

While Iran insists that its uranium enrichment program is for civilian purposes, Israeli, American and European officials say they believe that the Iranians are working toward the capability to build nuclear weapons.

Mr. Netanyahu, by broadening his coalition and thereby averting early elections, has bought himself more time and government stability. Since Mr. Barak’s faction may not have won any seats in the next Parliament, the extension is Mr. Netanyahu’s surest way of keeping his defense minister.

“I think it enables him to keep Iran on the front burner,” David Makovsky, director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’sProject on the Middle East Peace Process, said in a telephone interview.

“It suddenly buys him quiet for a year and a half,” he said, adding, “He’s able to unite the country easier around the course of action if he incorporates his chief opposition party.”

But with polls showing that Mr. Mofaz’s Kadima could lose more than half its 28 parliamentary seats in an early election, his influence in the government will probably be circumscribed.

“Such weakness,” said Meir Javedanfar, a lecturer on Iranian politics at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, “means that his impact on the government’s Iran policy and narrative is likely to be limited.”

Although Mr. Netanyahu has used almost every platform to warn of what he calls the dangers to Israel and the world of a nuclear Iran, neither he nor Mr. Mofaz referred to the issue directly on Tuesday as they introduced their partnership at a news conference in the Parliament building.

Mr. Mofaz also did not mention Iran in his overnight meeting with Kadima Parliament members about his surprise deal with Mr. Netanyahu, said Nachman Shai, a legislator who had attended. But, he added, “it is always there, somewhere on the horizon.”

Ms. Wilf, of Mr. Barak’s faction, said that personal attacks and differences in language aside, there was broad agreement in Israel on what needed to be done about Iran, which already is the target of international sanctions.

“Everyone is saying they would prefer the sanctions to work,” backed up with the threat of a credible military option, she said. Only if all else fails, she said, should Israel act alone.

“Everyone is saying the same thing,” she said, “though there may be a difference of tone.”

If Obama’s Rhetoric on Syria is a Joke, Why Trust Him on Iran? « Commentary Magazine.

Jonathan S. Tobin | @tobincommentary 05.08.2012 – 6:10 PM

Is Iran just an excuse for Israel\’s new unity government? – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Mofaz has made clear that he does not share Netanyahu’s and Barak’s sense of urgency that a decision must be made even before this year is out.

By Amos Harel

Is Iran just an excuse? That is the main security question floating over the surprise decision to establish a national unity government and forego early elections. Just last week, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to move up elections, he explained to a number of media outlets that elections in September would make it easier for him and Defense Minister Ehud Barak to attack Iran. On Tuesday, the exact same claim was heard, but going in the opposite direction: MK Shaul Mofaz and Kadima joining the coalition would stabilize the political situation and make it easier to deal resolutely, if necessary, with Iran.

But this explanation is relevant mainly if decisive new information emerges that changes basic positions on the Iranian question.

	Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Kadima head Shaul Mofaz at a joint news conference announcing national unity government, Jerusalem, May 8, 2012.
	Photo by: Emil Salman

Kadima’s chairman has taken a great deal of fire for his political flip-flop, for joining a government led by a man he described not long ago as a liar, and for breaking his (empty ) promise to lead the social protest this summer. But politicians’ flip-flopping out of dread of the ballot box is nothing new.

What, if anything, actually happens with Iran is more important.

Only a little more than a month ago, after Mofaz was elected chairman of Kadima, he told Haaretz’s Yossi Verter in an interview that at least two years still remained to deal with the Iranian threat. Mofaz has made clear that he does not share Netanyahu’s and Barak’s sense of urgency that a decision must be made even before this year is out.

But now that political considerations have caused him to bend so much, will he be able to stand tall again if a decision to attack must be made?

There is practically no ideological component in the dispute over how to deal with Iran. This debate is strategic and personal. The entire Israeli leadership, past and present, agrees that an Israeli military attack should not be ruled out as a last resort. The debate is over whether Israel should act relatively soon, despite clear U.S. opposition.

Former Mossad chief Meir Dagan, and even more so former Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin, inserted the personal element into the discussion in their direct attacks on the purity of Barak’s and Netanyahu’s motives.

Mofaz’s views are not far from Diskin’s and Dagan’s. Thus, unless something fateful happens on the ground, Mofaz’s joining the security forum of eight senior ministers will actually have a moderating effect.

Like most significant decisions Israeli prime ministers make, it will probably take time before we know the real reasons for Netanyahu’s actions, before we get past the official version to the behind-the-scenes considerations.

Even in the surprising decision to make a deal for Gilad Shalit’s release, only in hindsight did it become clear that the need for an achievement which would make the people happy after a summer of social protest played a key role.

At least for now, the most reasonable explanation has to do with politics, not Iran. Netanyahu was facing a double threat: the law to dissolve the Knesset, which he himself set in motion, and the two-month deadline the High Court of Justice set for the evacuation of the houses in the West Bank neighborhood of Ulpana, which could yet set him on a collision course with the settlers. He also failed at the Likud central committee convention earlier this week. Meanwhile, Mofaz was pushed into the unity government because of the polls’ ominous predictions of his party’s crash on election day.

At Tuesday’s joint press conference, the pair hardly mentioned Iran. When Netanyahu was asked about disagreements between himself and Mofaz on the issue, his response was vague. Iran, until proven otherwise, does not seem to be the main impetus behind the unity government.

BusinessDay – Netanyahu surprise gives Israel grand coalition.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem. Picture: REUTERS

Netanyahu power play could remake Mideast – The Globe and Mail.

In the name of stability, Benjamin Netanyahu has made himself the most powerful Prime Minister in Israeli history – 94 of the Knesset’s 120 members are swearing loyalty to him – and with only 26 members in the parliamentary opposition, Mr. Netanyahu can govern any way he wishes, including launching a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities or even shaping a peace with the Palestinians.

While some Israelis, such as Knesset Speaker Reuven Rivlin, a member of Mr. Netanyahu’s own Likud party, worry that the imbalance between government and opposition risks the degeneration of the parliamentary system, most Israelis simply marvelled Tuesday at the arrangement arrived at in the early hours of the morning that has dramatically rearranged the country’s politics.

Just two days after he announced he was calling for elections to be held in September, 13 months before the end of his electoral mandate, Mr. Netanyahu decided to accept a plan put forward by Defence Minister Ehud Barak and welcomed into his right-of-centre government Shaul Mofaz, the newly elected leader of Kadima and his party’s 28 seats.

Added to Likud’s 27 seats, and the 39 other members of the coalition that have governed the country since 2009, Mr. Netanyahu couldn’t suppress a Cheshire Cat-like smile as he announced his 94-seat supermajority.

“The man has given himself enormous power,” said Dani Dayan, head of the Israeli settlers organization Yesha. Mr. Dayan was speaking at an emergency meeting of settler leaders Tuesday evening in Beit El, a settlement north of Jerusalem. “It remains to be seen how he wields this power,” he said, concerned that the Prime Minister may turn his back on them.

It is believed that Mr. Netanyahu was shaken Sunday night by the right-wing resistance he encountered at a Likud party conference. Opponents, such as Danny Danon, a staunchly pro-settlement Likud member of Knesset, had refused the Prime Minister’s request to chair the party convention and heckled the leader throughout his speech.

Mr. Netanyahu apparently left the convention hall and immediately contacted Mr. Barak, as well as a former chief of staff in the Prime Minister’s Office, and directed them to negotiate with Mr. Mofaz.

The result was a 13-point document that set out the terms under which Mr. Mofaz and Kadima would become part of the government.

Among other things, Mr. Mofaz will serve as the deputy prime minister in the government and will stand in for Mr. Netanyahu whenever the Prime Minister is absent. He will also be a member of the powerful security cabinet.

As well, the government will proceed quickly with abolishing the practice of giving military exemptions to tens of thousands of Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) men; with addressing the age-old issue of changing the electoral system to make it more difficult for tiny parties to be elected; and even with reopening the peace process with Palestinian leaders.

“In effect,” said Hanan Crystal, a political commentator for Israel Radio, “[Mr. Netanyahu] is telling [Mr.] Danon and others: ‘The Likud is not a nationalist-religious party, it’s a centralist-liberal party.’”

With such a wide base and so many parties to the left of him as well as to the right, Mr. Netanyahu can govern without fear that a walkout by any of the parties on either side would topple his government.

When it comes to Iran, the record shows that Mr. Mofaz has been hawkish against Iran when he served in the governments of Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert, and somewhat dovish when he’s been in opposition.

Most recently, Mr. Mofaz, who was born in Tehran, said Israel should not act alone in any action against Iran.

As a former chief of staff of the Israel Defence Forces, and a former minister of defence under Mr. Sharon, the Kadima leader has substantial credibility in this matter.

With him in the coalition, the Prime Minister has several options. If he wants to attack Iran, Mr. Mofaz may be persuaded to support him; if he doesn’t want to attack, then Mr. Mofaz may serve as a fig leaf, explaining why Mr. Netanyahu was held back from attacking by his deputy prime minister.

Right-wing elements of the Likud party were highly critical of the move to broaden the government.

Mr. Danon said he voted against the arrangement in the party caucus meeting that took place around 2:30 Tuesday morning. “This will perpetuate keeping [Ehud] Barak as Defence Minister for another year and a half, and will bring in a left-wing party called Kadima into the government,” Mr. Danon said. “This will be a blow to settlement; this will hurt the Likud’s values and will hurt the Israeli public that elected the Likud to lead the State of Israel.”

For his part, even the dour Mr. Mofaz couldn’t keep from smiling. With this one stroke he had saved the Kadima party that was facing a stunningly large loss of seats in any election this year, and catapulted himself to the front bench of government.

Mr. Barak, an apparent broker in the coalition deal, is also happy. Having split from the Labour party last year in order to remain in the government, his five-member Independence party was facing annihilation in a September election. This way, Mr. Barak lives to fight another year as Defence Minister.

The big losers in this unexpected development must certainly include the recently elected Labour party leader Shelly Yachimovich, who is stuck now with only eight members of Knesset instead of the 18 to 19 that opinion polls suggested she’d capture in an election this year.

Ms. Yachimovich, an assertive and articulate former journalist who had revived Labour after Mr. Barak’s departure, denounced the accord.

“This is a pact of cowards and the most contemptible and preposterous zigzag in Israel’s political history,” she said “Nobody will ever forget this shady deal, and unfortunately, this will cause profound damage to public faith in politics.”

Another apparently big loser is Yair Lapid, the entertaining former television news anchor who only last month announced the formation of a new political party that, polls indicated, could win some 11 seats were an election to take place soon.

Mr. Lapid described the unity government as precisely the kind of detestable and ugly politics he sought to eliminate. This repulsive political alliance will bury all of its participants under it, he said.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 8, 2012, 4:49 PM (GMT+02:00)

Barack Obama and Binyamin Netanyahu at their last meeting

The unity government backed by a majority of 94 (out of 120) which Binyamin Netanyahu formed Tuesday May 8, is not just the broadest coalition ever to govern Israel, but also the first with three former chiefs of staff at the helm. Two are also present (Ehud Barak) and former (Shaul Mofaz) defense ministers.  It was this feature which drew the most attention in Washington as the first reports of Netanyahu’s stunning U-turn away from an early election filtered through.
“He has pulled off another term in office without standing for election,” said one senior administration source, “and he’s done it seven months before Barack Obama faces the American voter.” A re-elected Obama will find the same Netanyahu sitting in the prime minister’s chair in Jerusalem as before – after reinventing himself as a long-life premier.

If he and his new senior partner, former opposition Kadima’s Shaul Mofaz, achieve the targets they have set themselves – especially electoral and government reforms by the end of 2012 – those reforms will enhance Netanyahu’s chances of winning the October 2013 elections. So that when Obama ends his second presidential term in late 2017, Netanyahu will be ending his third as prime minister or as head of state, depending on whether reform legislation merges the two functions.
debkafile’s Washington sources registered three assessments by authoritative US sources of the changes portended by the Israel’s unity government, especially their impact on a potential Israeli, American or combined attack on Iran’s nuclear program:

1. According to one school of thought, the introduction of Mofaz, former chief of staff and defense minister, will make the composition of the new unity government the most hawkish ever, considering that he will sit down alongside Defense Minister Barak and former chief of staff Moshe Yaalon, currently vice premier and Minister for Strategic Affairs. All three hold key cabinet posts. Another prominent Kadima member expecting an influential post in the cabinet or a Knesset panel chair is former Shin Bet chief Avi Dichter,.
The message to the Obama administration is clear: The vocal criticism leveled against Netanyahu’s capacity to make good on a military option against Iran by a small group of aggrieved former Israeli generals and ex-security chiefs in no way represents the view of the “entire Israeli security establishment” as it was presented. Heading the government today is a solid security elite fully capable of executing any decisions that may be necessary to pre-empt a nuclear Iran.
That is not to say that an Israeli attack on Iran is momentary, say these American sources, possibly even the reverse. They suggest that the new lineup may give Obama a few months’ space before getting down to a final decision on Iran.
2. The second school of thought within the Obama administration noted that while skipping over Iran, both Netanyahu and Mofaz made a point at the news conference launching their partnership in Jerusalem of stressing peace negotiations with the Palestinians as one of the four most compelling factors spurring their collaboration and dominating their goals.
debkafile’s political sources disclose that the prime minister has handed Mofaz the task of breaking down Palestinian resistance to peace talks after nearly two years, so long as he and Netanyahu are of one mind on how to proceed. At their press conference, the Kadima leader stated his party is committed to the concept of a democratic Jewish Israel willing to accept territorial compromise in return for peace with security.

Our Washington sources see this as part of the deal forged between the two men whereby Mofaz is committed to back Netanyahu on Iran while gaining the prime minister’s support on the Palestinian issue. In this, Mofaz is additionally motivated to seek success where former Kadima leader Tzipi Livni failed three years ago when she served as foreign minister.

3.  A third view in Washington homes in on the changing face of Israeli politics. One American strategist opined that Israel is undergoing a historic sea change: Reform of the governing and political systems which heads their new coalition’s agenda has the potential for eclipsing the many small and fringe political groupings which for nearly seven decades have kept the political scene unstable and foreshortened the life of most governments. ”The right reform program could leave Israel and its parliament with just three or four major political blocs, center, right, religious and Arab. “
Netanyahu appears to have taken the first step towards introducing a survivable centrist bloc, although every attempt in the past has foundered. Success would thrust the rightist groupings into a separate corner of the political map in opposition to his broad-based ruling coalition.