WarSclerotic

12,000 troops take part in Jordan war games: U.S..

Wednesday, 09 May 2012

Jordan is playing host to the Eager Lion 12 international military exercises, the biggest in Jordan’s history. (AFP)

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The U.S. military said on Wednesday that 12,000 soldiers from 17 countries are taking part in this month’s military exercises in Jordan, seeking to enhance their abilities to meet “security challenges.”

“The tactical execution of Eager Lion 2012 exercise will officially start on May 15,” Major Robert Bockholt, public affairs officer at Special Operations Command Central, told AFP.

“Eager Lion is an annual, multi-national exercise designed to strengthen military-to-military relationships through a joint, whole-of-government, multinational approach integrating all instruments of national power to meet current and future complex national security challenges.”

Bockholt did not name all countries, which include Jordan.

“We acknowledge the right of each participating country to announce their participation in the exercise on their own terms,” he said.

In April, the U.S. Department of Defense said the exercise would be held from May 7 to May 28.

Bockholt said participants gathered in Jordan since Monday to prepare for the land, sea and air exercise, which will be held in “various training locations.”

“In all, there are more than 12,000 service members participating in the exercise,” he said.

Some local media reports have speculated that the war games are linked to the unrest in neighboring Syria, saying the troops seek to secure Jordan’s border.

“Execution of Eager Lion 2012 is not connected to any real-world event. It has nothing to do with Syria. It is just a coincidence,” Bockholt said.

The war games come as Jordan’s Special Operations Forces Exhibition is under way, displaying new technologies by defense manufacturers around the world.

Jordan is a major beneficiary of U.S. military and economic aid, with Washington granting Amman $2.4 billion (1.85 billion euros) in the past five years, according to official figures.

Israel’s Nuclear Triad Gets New Muscle | The Jewish Week.

INTERVIEW-Iran atom compromise “worse than no deal” – Israel – AlertNet.

09 May 2012 13:50

Source: reuters // Reuters

* Israelis worry Iran might continue enriching uranium

* EU’s Ashton moves to reassure Netanyahu on Tehran talks

* Iran’s leaders “not irrational”, senior Israeli diplomat says

By Michael Stott and Crispian Balmer

JERUSALEM, May 9 (Reuters) – World powers must not yield in their demand Iran abandon sensitive nuclear projects, a senior Israeli official said on Wednesday, arguing Tehran had been allowed to “dictate” terms despite being vulnerable to sanctions.

Speaking a day after Israel formed a surprise unity government fuelling speculation that preemptive war on Iran could be in the works, Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon voiced cautious hope for a peaceful resolution from international talks with Tehran due to resume on May 23.

“We would very much like the negotiations to succeed, because a political solution is better than any other option,” he said. “At the same time, a bad deal would be worse than no deal.”

Talks between Iran and the five U.N. Security Council permanent members plus Germany resumed last month, more than a year after they collapsed with powers failing to persuade Tehran to abandon uranium enrichment. The next round of talks is expected to take place later this month in Baghdad.

The United States and European Union have imposed tough new sanctions on Iran’s oil exports this year, and say they hope this can force Tehran to make a deal to curb a nuclear programme they believe aims to make an atomic bomb.

Israel says it could attack Iran if it thinks that is the only way to stop it from getting nuclear arms. Washington and Brussels have been urging Israel not to launch any strikes until diplomacy has a chance, but Israeli officials say time is short.

Like Israel, the powers have insisted that an eventual accord require Iran to suspend uranium enrichment. But the Los Angeles Times said last month Washington might agree to allow Iran to continue processing uranium to 5 percent fissile purity.

If enriched further, uranium can be used to fuel warheads. Iran says it has no military designs and seeks only nuclear energy and medical isotopes. It says it will never agree to curbs on its uranium enrichment.

“The fact we hear some rumours about compromise, about meeting them halfway here and there, I think is very, very dangerous,” Ayalon told Reuters in a small conference room in Israel’s parliament that, to double as a wartime shelter, had been fitted with an industrial air filter and blast-proof walls.

Allowing Iran to keep enriching and stockpiling uranium could enable Tehran to opt for a bomb “in very short order”, he said, adding that those projects were already “accelerating”.

Israel’s Iran timelines have often been more urgent than those of its Western allies. But with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now saying the Iranians are just months away from fortifying their nuclear sites against air strikes, fears of an imminent new Middle East conflict have surged abroad.

Netanyahu’s alliance with centrist opposition leader Shaul Mofaz on Tuesday appeared to buttress Israel further for war. Yet Iran strategy did not feature in the two leaders’ coalition negotiations, a senior official told Reuters, adding that Israel potentially had until 2013 to decide how to tackle its arch-foe.

In Israel a day after Netanyahu dropped his political bombshell, Catherine Ashton, the EU foreign affairs chief and senior liaison for the six world powers in talks with Tehran, briefed the prime minister about the nuclear negotiations.

MISGIVINGS

Mofaz, Defence Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman also attended the session. An Israeli official said the Israeli leaders told Ashton it was clear Iran has been using the talks to play for time and there was no evidence it intends to stop its pursuit of a nuclear weapon.

Ayalon, a former ambassador to Washington who belongs to Lieberman’s ultra-nationalist Yisrael Beitenu party in Netanyahu’s government, declined to be drawn on whether Israel might defy the misgivings of the United States and other powers by attacking Iran unilaterally.

“I don’t want to lock ourselves to anything,” he said, adding: “Certainly we are not a part to any of these agreements (between world powers and Iran) and I think we have all the rights to be concerned based on the threats coming from Tehran.”

Iran “can be stopped” if subjected to more aggressive diplomacy, including sanctions on its oil and banks, Ayalon said.

“Of course there is a bad taste in that they dictate(d) the venue,” he said, referring to discussion over Baghdad hosting this month’s talks after the first, April 14 round in Istanbul. “That’s not something we should all be proud of. We don’t think Iran is in a position to negotiate at all.”

He cited U.S. findings that the Iranians lost $60 billion since July due to tightening sanctions, and noted their decision to back down after a bout of naval brinkmanship with the U.S. Navy in the strategic Strait of Hormuz in December and January.

“If its oil exports are reduced by only 40 percent … then their economy is ground to a halt and things will evolve very radically from there,” Ayalon said.

“There is a lot of spin and a lot of psychological warfare, but Iran is a very vulnerable country … We do know that the ayatollahs, as fanatic and dangerous as they are, are not irrational when it comes to their own political survival.”

Israel itself is widely presumed to have a nuclear arsenal, which it neither confirms nor denies. Unlike Iran, it has never signed up to the non-proliferation treaty that requires it to forego nuclear arms in return for guaranteed access to peaceful nuclear technology.

Asked if Israel might resign itself to containing a nuclear Iran, Ayalon said: “This is a bridge not yet built, let alone crossed.” (Writing by Dan Williams; Editing by Peter Graff)

Israel and Iran -will they, won’t they? | The World | International affairs blog from the FT – FT.com.

Iran: The Big Squeeze.

For Israel, Iran attack back on table – Salon.com.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delivers a speech to his Likud party members during the party convention in Tel Aviv, Israel, Sunday, May 6, 2012. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit) (Credit: AP)

JERUSALEM — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s frenetic politicking over the last week appears aimed at one thing: strengthening his ability to take on Iran.

Only days after announcing the surprise dissolution of his government and early elections, on Tuesday Netanyahu presented his compatriots with a second shocker: He cancelled elections and announced a strengthened parliamentary coalition, bolstered by unification with the opposition Kadima party.

This new union means Netanyahu will control more than 90 seats in Israel’s 120-seat parliament, known as the Knesset. The new majority is unprecedented in modern times. Former army chief of staff and Kadima’s newly-elected leader, Shaul Mofaz, will join as deputy prime minister. The center-right Kadima party adds heft to Netanyahu’s mandate at a time of urgently polemical debate in Israel over Iran’s nuclear program.

Netanyahu’s political jockeying provoked an immediate and strong reaction in Israel.

Labor Party leader Shelly Yachimovitch, who will benefit politically if, as expected, she is now named opposition leader, said: “This ugly maneuver is going to be taught in universities for a long, long time.”

Israel’s Occupy-style protest movement, meanwhile, announced a series of demonstrations to call for political reform this coming weekend. The main question occupying Israel’s punditry even after this second twist remains the same: Is Netanyahu acting to strengthen his hand if he decides to strike Iran before the American elections in November?

Ari Shavit, a top political analyst at the Israeli daily Ha’aretz, who is known for his contacts in circles close to Netanyahu, told GlobalPost that the prime minister has been intent on early elections for at least a few months, for one principal reason that will not please Washington.

“Netanyahu designed to have early elections in Israel so they preempt the American elections in November and give him time to bring the Iranian nuclear crisis to a climax in autumn, in the two months between the Israeli elections and the Americans’,” he said.

Netanyahu’s decision to then abandon early elections in favor of a broader coalition appears aimed at that same result. “Netanyahu suddenly understood that the Likud” — Netanyahu’s party — “could easily split to the right, in which case, even if re-elected, he would not have the mandate he needs,” Shavit said. “Instead of an election preparing the ground for a confrontation, now he has unity preparing the ground for confrontation.”

The Israeli leader has long argued that a pre-emptive strike on Iranian facilities may be the only way to prevent Iran from developing nuclear-weapons capability.

But opposition from European leaders and US President Barack Obama, who supports a diplomatic approach, and from a growing chorus of former Israeli military commanders who argue that a unilateral strike would only delay, not halt, Iranian ambitions, have weakened the prime minister’s position.

Netanyahu’s logic seems to hold that if Obama is re-elected in November, he will no longer have to worry about domestic politics and will be able to press Netanyahu on Iran and the question of peace talks with the Palestinians — an area Netanyahu is eager to keep out of the international spotlight.

“The Iranian reason remains Netanyahu’s motivation,” Shavit said. “The difference is that now the season is shortened. He does not have to wait until the election on Sept. 4 before bringing the Iranian issue to a head. He can act now.”

Chanan Kristal, a political analyst for Israel Radio, had a somewhat different take. He said that two possibilities exist that can explain Netanyahu’s actions — but agreed that the move was driven by Iran.

“Either [Netanyahu] needs [new Deputy Prime Minister] Mofaz in his government in order to justify postponing any action against Iran, or he needs Mofaz inside so as to provide legitimacy for when he does attack Iran. Mofaz has so far come out against an attack, but it remains clear that those making the decision will be Netanyahu and Defense Minister [Ehud] Barak. For now, all bets are off.”

Shavit warned that anyone interested in preventing a conflict with Iran, such as the United States, will need to act swiftly to find a political solution.

“Otherwise there is a risk by the end of summer, we’ll find ourselves in a dire situation,” he said.

At the joint press conference announcing his union with Kadima and Mofaz, Netanyahu appeared to be peeved at much of the sniping he has recently faced by a growing list of former military and intelligence leaders expressing doubts about his Iran policy. He seemed especially put off by Yuval Diskin, the former head of Israel’s internal security agency and an apolitical figure respected across the board, who last week took the criticism farther than most.

“My major problem is that I have no faith in the current leadership, which must lead us in an event on the scale of war with Iran or a regional war,” he said. “I don’t believe in either the prime minister or the defense minister. I don’t believe in a leadership that makes decisions based on messianic feelings.”

The implication that Netanyahu and Barak are not competent to make decisions on matters of national security, specifically regarding Iran, ricocheted loudly across the political universe and clearly remained on Netanyahu’s mind today as he repeatedly stressed the “sanity” of his government and said: “I have even been referred to as messianic. Yes, messianic.”

Diplomania-Israel News – Haaretz Israeli News source..

In unusual move, PM invites Barak, Lieberman and newcomer Mofaz to join meeting with EU foreign policy chief Ashton, in which he accused Iran of playing for time and said world powers must demand that Iran take tangible steps toward halting uranium enrichment.

By Barak Ravid

After Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finished celebrating the aftermath of the political bombshell that he had dropped on Israel by bringing in Kadima into the government, he freed up Wednesday to deal with a different bomb.

On Wednesday afternoon, the prime minister met with European Union Foreign Affairs Chief Catherine Ashton, who arrived in Israel to brief Netanyahu on the preparations for the second round of nuclear talks with Iran, which are set to take place on May 23 in Baghdad.

	Meeting of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with EU Foreign Commissioner Catherine Ashton in Jerusalem.
	Photo by: GPO

Ashton’s visit was first reported in Haaretz last week. In an unusual move, Netanyahu invited Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman to join the meeting with Ashton, along with the newcomer, Kadima head Shaul Mofaz. Mofaz, who will be sworn in Wednesday as a minister in the government, will join Netanyahu’s security cabinet, which will now be called the forum of nine senior ministers.

During the meeting, the Israelis presented a rigid set of demands for the Iranians, a senior Israeli official said. Netanyahu and the three ministers told Ashton that Israel’s position leading up to the Baghdad talks is that the talks will be considered as progress only if they would yield an Iranian guarantee – with a clear timetable – to halt uranium enrichment, to remove all enriched uranium out of Iranian soil, and to dismantle the underground enrichment facility in Fordo, which is near Qom.

“Iran is trying to gain time through talks with the West, and has no intention of halting its nuclear program,” Netanyahu told Ashton at the meeting.

According to a report published by Israeli newspaper Maariv on Wednesday, several officials who took part in the coalitional negotiations between Mofaz and Netanyahu said the two are “coordinated” over the issue of Iran and are “of one mind” when it comes to stopping Iran’s nuclear program.

Despite the fact that the report did not explain the significance of that coordination, it was hinted that, ostensibly, Mofaz changed his mind once more and now supports an attack on Iran. In recent weeks, and even more forcefully since he won the elections to become head of Kadima, Mofaz vigorously attacked Netanyahu over the issue of Iran, claiming he was “frightening the public.”

What likely stands behind the invitation of Barak, Lieberman and Mofaz to the meeting with Ashton is Netanyahu’s desire to present a united front to Ashton, who is charged with handling the negotiations with Iran on behalf of the six major powers – the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany.

Ashton’s visit to Israel is also slightly unusual. As opposed to all of her previous visits, Ashton’s bureau refrained from officially announcing the visit or responding to journalists’ questions on the topic. Moreover, she did not visit the Palestinian Authority, but solely met with Netanyahu and his senior ministers and flew back to Brussels.

Ashton’s visit to Jerusalem took place while preparations were being made in advance of the second round of talks with Iran. Ashton’s senior adviser, Helga Schmid, is expected to meet this week with Iran’s deputy negotiator Ali Bagheri, and last week Schmid had met with the negotiating teams of the six world powers.

Netanyahu and his senior ministers made clear to Ashton during the meeting that the world powers must demand that Iran take tangible steps to halt uranium enrichment, and not simply make do with declarations. Lieberman, who visited in Berlin this week, told his German counterpart Guido Westerwelle that Israel expects that the world powers will agree on tangible steps during the meeting with Iran, and not only to hold further meetings that would enable the Iranians to play for time.

( In comparing the current situation visa vie the situation in 1967 it is useful to review just what happened back then.   This is the best political/military documentary I know of, made a few years ago.  While there are many differences, the parallels, particularly the political ones are striking.  HIGHLY recommended.  – JW )

Uploaded by constructivereconcil on May 26, 2011

Iran is buying time in nuke talks while it continues enrichment, PM complains to EU foreign policy chief | The Times of Israel.

Catherine Ashton apparently came to Jerusalem to try to assuage Netanyahu’s fears about a deal with Tehran; it didn’t work

Catherine Ashton meets with Prime Minister Netanyahu on Wednesday in Jerusalem (photo credit: Amos Ben Gershom, GPO)

In the meeting, which was also attended by Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman and incoming Vice Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz, Israel reiterated its concerns regarding the Iranian nuclear program, according to government officials.

“What will be seen as progress is Iranian agreements and a clear timeline for implementations on three critical issues: the total cessation of all enrichment activities; the removal from Iran of all enriched material; and the dismantling of the [nuclear] facility near Qom,” a government official told The Times of Israel.

In April, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany — the so-called P5+1 — met with Iranian officials in Istanbul to talk about the country’s nuclear program. Although the parties spoke of a constructive meeting, the talk did not yield concrete achievements besides an agreement to reconvene on May 23 in Baghdad. After the Istanbul meeting, a frustrated Netanyahu said Iran has been given a “freebie,” as it received five more weeks “to continue enrichment without any limitation.”

According to Haaretz, Ashton came to Israel to “prevent Israel from speaking out publicly against the talks.”

Ashton was briefing Netanyahu about past and future discussions with Iran “in an effort to assuage his concerns that a deal is in the works that would authorize Iran to continue enriching uranium,” the paper wrote.

But apparently her efforts were fruitless: “The Iranians are using these talks to play for time,” an Israeli government official told The Times of Israel after the meeting. “So far there is no evidence that the Iranian regime has any intention to cease its aggressive pursuit of nuclear weapons.”

Ashley is only seeing Israeli leaders on this visit, and will not meet with Palestinians in Ramallah.

Ashton’s office did not immediately send out any information about the meeting.

Israel Hayom | The reconstitution of Likud.

Elliott Abrams is a senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. This piece is reprinted with permission and can be found on Abrams’ blog “Pressure Points” here.

On Aug. 7, 2005, Israel’s finance minister resigned his post in protest of then Prime Minister Sharon’s plan to remove settlements and military bases from the Gaza Strip. That finance minister was Benjamin Netanyahu. The Likud party was split in two by Sharon’s “Disengagement” plan, and Sharon quit Likud and formed the Kadima party in November of that year. With him to Kadima came former Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz, while Netanyahu stayed in Likud and became its leader once again.

Today Mofaz and Netanyahu, and more broadly Kadima and Likud, find themselves reunited in a coalition government. This reflects, in part, the weakness of Kadima: Mofaz recently won a primary against Tzipi Livni for party leadership, and polls showed that Kadima would slip very badly if an election were held, as had been planned, in the coming months. (The date had practically been set for Sept. 4.) For Mofaz that would be a disastrous start to his period of leadership, and for many Kadima MKs it would mean the end of their political careers. So Mofaz took Kadima into partnership with Likud, even though he did not receive either of the two major security portfolios: defense minister or foreign minister. What did he receive?

Perhaps maneuvering out of a disastrous election was enough. Mofaz will be a deputy prime minister, but such a post can mean great or very little influence. Perhaps he has been promised the Foreign Ministry if the current incumbent, Avigdor Lieberman, is eventually indicted by the police on allegations of corruption. Perhaps he will have real influence on policy toward Iran and toward the Palestinians, although there are many important domestic issues facing the government now — not least of which are the budget and the “Tal Law” regulating the ability of ultra-Orthodox students to escape military service.

The election will be held next year, presumably near the latest date the Israeli constitution makes possible: October, right after the Jewish holiday period that year. Mofaz has made a wager here that Kadima’s fortunes are at their lowest ebb today and that the party would not survive a bad defeat in elections this September, but can recover while in government and do better one year later. He may be wrong; it may be that this move revives the Labor party as the left-of-center opposition and crushes Kadima next year between Labor and Likud. Netanyahu has also made a wager, for polls showed him with a clear victory this year — but October 2013 is very far away.

While this coalition was formed for domestic political reasons, it may have an impact on Israeli security policy. Mofaz has been more flexible on resolving the dispute with the Palestinians, presenting his own plan in 2009, and may push the government to do more. He has been cautious in some statements on striking Iran, less so in others. In April he spoke against exactly the sort of deal that seems to be most likely in the current negotiations:

“It would be too hard to monitor [a civilian program],” Mofaz said. “Iran has military ambitions and abilities, so we cannot close our eyes. Allowing Iran to obtain even a civilian nuclear capability would change the balance of power in the Middle East. America realizes why Israel cannot accept this.” Mofaz said he believed the Obama administration was committed to stopping the Iranian nuclear program. Calling for an intensification of U.S.-led sanctions against Iran, he said the military option was the last option but that Israel must be ready for it. “If we see Iran getting closer to a military nuclear capability and the US acting against its own interest and allowing a sword on our neck, I will be the first to support Israel taking action,” he said. “On this there would be no coalition and opposition. But the sword is not there yet.”

Should Netanyahu decide the sword is there, having Kadima and Mofaz — a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff and defense minister — on his side will be of great value.