WarSclerotic

Understanding This Veiled Strategy Explains So Much About Israel’s Plans Against Iran – Business Insider.

WASHINGTON – Comments made by Israeli military Chief of Staff Binyamin “Benny” Gantz in recent days that he doubts Iran has decided to build a nuclear bomb on the surface may appear to be at serious odds with the thinking of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in which case the Israeli military chief would be expected to resign within a week.

Unless Gantz planned for an early retirement, his comments had to be approved by political authorities, which suggests his public statement may be part of an Israeli strategy to keep Iran off guard on exact Israeli intentions of whether to attack its nuclear facilities – or not.

The public disagreement on its face may appear to show a serious difference between the military and political leaders, but sources believe it may be a calculated effort to keep Iran guessing what Israel will do. Gantz suggested that as long as Israel threatens to attack Iran will decide not to develop nuclear weapons.

In a recent interview with the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Gantz said that he did not believe that Iran had made a decision to build nuclear weapons, despite having a nuclear development program.

Iran is going “step by step to the place where it will be able to decide whether to manufacture a nuclear bomb,” Gantz said. “It hasn’t yet decided whether to go the extra mile.”

Gantz added that Iran would build a nuclear bomb if it thought there would not be a military consequence but had not made that final decision because of the prospect of a military attack on its facilities.

Gantz tempered that assessment by saying that the further Iran progresses with its nuclear program, the “worse the situation is. This is a critical year, but not necessarily ‘go, no-go,'” Gantz said. “The problem doesn’t necessarily stop on December 21, 2012.

“We’re in a period when something must happen – either Iran takes its nuclear program to a civilian footing only or the world, perhaps we too, will have to do something,” Gantz added. “We’re closer to the end of the discussions than the middle.”

The Israeli military chief’s comments mirror those of U.S. military officials who similarly have determined that Iran hasn’t decided yet to develop a nuclear weapon as part of its nuclear development efforts.

In the view of some regional observers, Gantz appears to be distancing himself from Netanyahu, who, sources say, gets his perspective from the ideology of the Islamic republic, “arguing that its religious foundations trump rational calculation,” according to the open intelligence company Stratfor.

In public statements, Netanyahu is of the belief that Iran is on a path to make nuclear weapons, using its nuclear development program as a cover for such an undertaking. He further believes that unless those nuclear facilities are destroyed, and soon, Iran will have reached the point of enriching weapons-grade uranium to construct a nuclear bomb.

For Israel, sources point out, any attack on Iran would be a major military undertaking. In addition, the element of surprise most likely would be gone, since the intelligence services of Iran and such friends as Russia and China are watching developments very closely and would provide militarily useful information.

As G2Bulletin recently reported, the Russian military command already expects an Israeli attack by summer and has begun preparations to move additional military assets into the Middle East region, including a critical base in Armenia which is next door to Iran.

While there was an earlier indication that Israel had been talking to authorities in Azerbaijan, which also borders Iran, to use a base from which to launch an attack, sources say that the Russians have gotten to the Azerbaijanis to halt that approach. Like Armenia, Azerbaijan was part of the former Soviet Union and the influence of Russia remains considerable.

There also are the international repercussions from such an attack. Iran could retaliate, block the Strait of Hormuz, which the U.S. Navy assesses Iran has a capability of doing, and seriously affect the flow of oil.

Some 40 percent of the world’s oil is transported through the Strait. The concern is that any retaliation in blocking the Strait would seriously hurt an already struggling global economic recovery.

Yet, if the Israelis are continuing to talk about the prospect of halting Iran’s nuclear program, that may mean that the Israelis will have an effective military option, giving Netanyahu’s continued public threats a matter of importance.

Analysts believe, however, that Israel would not be in a position to carry out such a strike alone and, at the same time, head off any Iranian retaliatory strike, either in closing the Strait of Hormuz, or launching missiles against Israeli targets. Separately, the Israelis, in recent military maneuvers of their own, have indicated a strategy of using a “swarm” approach of launching multiple missiles at once from mobile platforms located throughout the country.

For its part, the United States has sought to cool the rhetoric of Israel’s political leadership while seeking to pursue ongoing discussions with Iran on the disposition of its nuclear program, with another scheduled meeting set for May 23 in Baghdad.

Iran also is under pressure from the Russians to make this round of discussions, unlike previous meetings, work, since Israel has suggested these talks may be the end of the line, and it could launch an attack.

Like Gantz, the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Michael Dempsey, has referred to Iran’s leadership as “rational,” and said that they will not precipitously decide to make nuclear weapons without realizing the consequences.

However, Iran also has made it clear that it intends to pursue a nuclear development program to enrich fuel to the point of running its reactors and for medical purposes, a process which it has a right to do under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Ongoing discussions with the West suggest that Iran may brush off a previous proposal to import enriched uranium and send it back out for reprocessing, while halting its own enrichment efforts. That appears to be what the issue of discussion will be in Baghdad.

“Israel’s position is that it will attack Iran if it builds a weapon, but there is no need to attack now because Iran isn’t irrational enough to try it,” the Stratfor report said. “The threat to Iran is still there, the United States is placated and actual Israeli thinking remains a secret.”

Israeli helicopters get missile shield – UPI.com.

TEL AVIV, Israel, April 27 (UPI) — Israel’s military plans to arm its helicopter fleet with a protective system against shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles it says are in the hands of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip.

The system, known as Fliker and developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, fires an interceptor at an incoming SAM and is designed to minimize debris to avoid shrapnel hitting the aircraft.

The rotating system “is designed to serve as the second layer of defense for helicopters and will be activated when automatic flares fail to divert an incoming missile,” The Jerusalem Post reported Friday.

The unveiling of the system, which recently successfully underwent testing, is the latest in a string of new weapons the Israeli military has announced amid growing concerns that a new regional conflict is simmering.

This war, with Iran, Syria and their proxies Hezbollah and Hamas in Lebanon and Gaza the likely adversaries, is expected to focus largely on a sustained missile and rocket bombardment of the Jewish state on an unprecedented scale.

Israel’s principal response would be airstrikes by its 227 ground-attack F-15 and F-16 jets, built by Boeing and Lockheed Martin, and its 80-plus attack helicopters, including 48 Boeing AH-64A/D Apaches and 33 Bell AH1-E/F Cobras.

Israel also has some 200 transport helicopters, including 73 twin-engine Sikorsky Black Hawk craft of various designations.

Israel has the Middle East’s most formidable air force and has long maintained aerial supremacy over its Arab neighbors and Iran.

But Hezbollah, which is reputed to have in excess of 42,000 surface-to-surface missiles and rockets that can be unleashed on the Jewish state, is now reported to have an array of Russian-built SAMs. These weapons, supplied by Iran and Syria, could challenge Israel’s mastery of the skies over Lebanon for the first time.

The Jerusalem Post recently reported that Shiite guerrillas, who have underground missile depots across their heartland in the Bekaa Valley of northeastern Lebanon along the Syrian border, now possess the SA-8, a Russian mobile SAM system with an estimated range of around 20 miles.

Hamas is believed to have received SAMs from Iran, as well as an unknown number of Soviet-era weapons plundered from Libya during and after its civil war in 2011.

Israel says it has spotted some of the 480 shoulder-fired Russian Igla-S 9K-338 SAMS, which NATO calls the SA-24 Grinch, that Western counter-terrorism officials say are missing from Libya.

The SA-24, built by Russia’s KBM design bureau at Kolomna, outside Moscow, is one of the most potent surface-to-air missiles in service these days.

It’s effective up to 19,000 feet and is resistant to most electronic countermeasures.

However, Israeli AH-54 gunships operating over Gaza were reported to have been able to defeat SA-24s sold to Iran and apparently passed on to the Palestinians in Gaza, as well as Hezbollah.

The Israelis haven’t commented on these reports.

The Israeli air force, equipped largely with U.S.-made aircraft and weapons systems, is capable of countering the SA-8 with electronic jamming systems and precision-guided munitions.

It displayed these capabilities Sept. 6, 2007, when seven F-15I Boeing Raam fighters destroyed a suspected nuclear reactor being built by North Korea in Syria at Deir al-Zor 80 miles from the Iraqi border.

The warplanes in Operation Orchard were able to evade Syrian air defenses during the nighttime raid because an electronic warfare aircraft accompanying them blinded Syrian radars and missiles defenses.

However, if Hezbollah has SA-8s in sufficient numbers to hurl multiple missiles at Israeli aircraft it could impede airstrikes aimed at destroying surface-to-surface missile storage and launch sites that would likely be heavily defended.

In the first 36 hours of the 2006 war, Israeli warplanes destroyed most of Hezbollah’s long-range missiles before they could be used but they were unable to stop a non-stop 34-day barrage on northern Israel that lasted until the final moments of the conflict.

With enough SA-8s, and the large quantity of Russian shoulder-fired SAMs Hezbollah is believed to have received from Syria over the last two years, the battle-hardened guerrillas could blunt Israeli air operations for a time to a degree not seen since the invading Egyptians drove off Israeli jets in the opening days of the 1973 war./#ixzz1tGbIKp00

Barak: Iranians Determined to Fool the World – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Ehud Barak (file)

Flash 90

Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Thursday that Iran “is determined to fool the entire world” and obtain nuclear weapons.

“They do so while repeatedly disobeying Security Council decisions and directives from the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna,” Barak said. “The last report by [IAEA Director General Yukiya] Amano clarifies the intelligence picture in an unmistakable way.”

Barak spoke at the traditional Yom Ha’atzmaut ceremony in which he hosted senior IDF brass past and present at the IAF House in Herzliya.

Barak said that there is no reason to think that Iran will stop moving toward military nukes once it believes its program is immune to attack. He noted that North Korea and Pakistan both achieved nuclear weapons despite tough sanctions.

Barak acknowledged that Israel’s “stopwatch” on Iran is “ticking faster” than the US’s, because Israel’s abilities are more limited. . .

Elie Wiesel challenges Obama who makes a remarkable speech in response. 

May his deeds reflect his words…

Barak: Gear up now to bring Iran’s nuclear program to a ‘swift and decisive end’ | The Times of Israel.

Tehran will not heed international demands to halt its weapons drive, defense minister argues

Defense Minister Ehud Barak. (photo credit: Uri Lenz/FLASH90)

“Truth be told, the likelihood that Iran will heed international demands to halt the program irreversibly at the current pressure level seems low,” said Barak.

“Confronting Iran’s determination to attain a nuclear weapons capability is not without complications, risks and unpredictable consequences,” he said. “But the same challenge if the regime of the ayatollahs is allowed to achieve that nuclear weapons capability would be far more complicated, risky, and costly in terms of lives and resources. Now is the moment for the entire international community to gear up to put a swift and decisive end to Iran’s nuclear program.”

The defense minister also warned that if Iran were to acquire nuclear capabilities, a nuclear arms race would erupt in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and post-revolution Egypt – and, worse yet, terrorist organizations – taking part in the proliferation.

Israel Radio quoted Barak as saying that while Israel was conducting a “steady and continuous” dialogue with the United States over the issue of Iran’s nuclear program, the two countries were operating on different timetables.

Israel’s “clocks are operating faster than the United States’,” Barak said – hinting that the Israeli leadership views Iran’s efforts with a deeper sense of urgency, but stressing that the Obama administration understands Israel’s precarious position and its need to make decisions on the matter independently.

Earlier on Thursday, President Shimon Peres told Channel 2 in an interview that “I trust the American president, not just because of his personality and views but because of the interests he represents.”

The president stated that while all-out war was to be avoided, “civilian and military options, neither of them absolute,” were on the table where Iran’s nuclear program was concerned. To that end, he said, Israel possessed “known and unknown” capabilities. He added that while the crisis vis-a-vis Iran

‘Hezbollah boosting drone unit’ – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Shiite terror group said to be bolstering UAV unit in order to attack Israel in case it strikes Iran

Ronen Bergman

Hezbollah has been allocating increased resources towards bolstering its drone unit, Yedioth Ahronoth reported Friday.

The Shiite terror groups reportedly plans to use its unmanned aerial vehicle to attack Israel in case it mounts a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Hezbollah is equipped with Ababil (“Swallow”) drones, which are manufactured and provided by Iran.

The Ababil has several models, including one that can carry a warhead packed with several dozens of kilograms of explosives.

Defense establishment officials expressed concern that Hezbollah would be able to send multiple drones into Israel’s airspace and have them crash into targets in the country’s north.

“Hezbollah is making a specific effort to acquire such (weapons) as part of its offensive lineup against Israel,” a security source told Yedioth Ahronoth.

“As far as they are concerned, it’s a sure thing: The Ababil is a relatively cheap weapon, which the Iranians give them for free, anyway.

“It takes a short time to master and its loss doesn’t not involve sacrificing human lives. Another advantage for them is that it’s a very small aircraft that’s hard to detect and shoot down.”

The first Ababil drones were given to Hezbollah in 2002. The Shiite group had previously launched several of them into Israeli airspace, mostly as a power play.

Hezbollah attempted to use the drones during the Second Lebanon War, sending two UAVs, carrying 40-50kg of explosives each into Israeli airspace.

The aircrafts were spotted by IAF radars and F-16 jets were scrambled to intercept them. One drone was shot down and the other crashed, causing no harm.

IDF sources said that the Air Force’s anti-missile lineup has been adapting its defensive doctrines to the increasing threat.

Meanwhile, diplomatic sources told the Lebanese newspaper al-Nahar that both Lebanese authorities and Hezbollah said that they “would not be opposed” Israel’s intention to construct a separation fence on the border near Metulah.

According to the diplomats, the matter was agreed upon in a joint meeting between Israeli representatives, Lebanon and UNIFIL.

Israel hopes the one kilometer long border would prevent drug smuggling and security incidents with Israeli farmers who work near the border.

Elior Levy contributed to this report

Security and Defense: The Ir… JPost – Features – Week in review.

US house panel adds $680m. for Iron Dome – JPost – International.

By HILARY LEILA KRIEGER, JPOST CORRESPONDENT

04/27/2012 06:22

The money now slated for Iron Dome as part of the 2013 budget far exceeds any past US expenditures for the program.

Photo: Marc Israel Sellem

WASHINGTON – A US House subcommittee voted Thursday to dedicate an additional $680 million in funding for Israel’s short-range missile defense system.

The move by a House Armed Services subcommittee adds the funding for the Iron Dome program on top of nearly $100m. in US assistance for medium- and long-range missile defense and $3.1 billion in other military assistance that comes from the State Department budget.

The money now slated for Iron Dome as part of the 2013 budget far exceeds any past US expenditures for the program, with the previous highest allocation of $205m. made in 2010.

The Obama administration’s original 2013 Pentagon budget proposal contained no Iron Dome money, but a Pentagon spokesman said soon after its unveiling that the administration wanted to include funding for the project, though no amount was specified. The $205m. allocation was also added later in the budgeting process.

“Iron Dome is a game changer, saving innocent lives and protecting Israelis,” Rep. Howard Berman (D-California), the House Foreign Affairs Committee ranking member, said in backing the new funding.

“Securing additional funding to deploy additional Iron Dome batteries is an Israeli necessity, an American priority and a strategic imperative.” The Pentagon budget also trims by some $6m. the funding for Israel’s other missile defense programs, a reduction that was seized on by Republicans earlier in the year.

Support for the $680m. Iron Dome boost is bipartisan, and comes at a time when both parties have called for heavy budget cuts. In all, the administration’s budget makes defense cuts that amount to nearly half a trillion dollars across 10 years.

The Iron Dome money still needs to be approved by the full House Armed Services Committee in May and then the full House and Senate before being sent to the White House for the president’s signature, a contentious process that faces additional obstacles in an election year.

DEBKA.

Benjamin Netanyahu

In the last DEBKA-Net-Weekly issue of April 20, we reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak were poised near a decision on a date for striking Iran’s nuclear sites shortly after the second round of talks between the six major powers and Iran in Baghdad on May 23. (Israel Loses Patience with Obama, Starts Countdown to Unilateral Decision on Nuclear Iran)
This week two alternative scenarios were shaping up.
In this article, DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military and intelligence sources uncover some of the planning for the short one, which it now appears may possibly go forward before rather than after the Baghdad meeting, for two reasons:
1. Defense Minister Ehud Barak came away empty-handed from his Washington visit April 20 with US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta. The battery of questions he fired at the US secretary to find out if a secret deal had been reached in backdoor dialogue with Tehran in Paris and Vienna and what if any concessions (“the US bottom line”) had been made to procure the deal remained unanswered.
Panetta told him the situation was unchanged: Washington and the five powers (P5+1) had stood by their five demands of Iran: a) Stop 20-percent uranium enrichment; b) Export your entire stockpile of 20 percent-enriched uranium; c) Shut down the buried, fortified Fordow enrichment facility near Qom; d) Open up all suspect nuclear sites to unfettered international inspections; and e) Allow the International Atomic Agency to affix monitoring devices to the centrifuges to gauge the level of enrichment purity.
Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the US Chiefs of Staff, was present for part of the conversation.

Obama’s consent to lift inspections leaves Iran free to build a nuke now

These demands were put before Iran at the first round of formal talks in Istanbul. They were not the answers Barak had traveled to Washington to hear. His questions referred to the real business contracted between the US and Iran privately. But that was all he got from the US defense secretary.
2. After the defense minister returned home and reported to the prime minister, Tamir Pardo, Director of Israel’s external intelligence Mossad, submitted his recommendations:
He concluded that if the Six Powers and Iran achieved a breakthrough in Baghdad a month hence and scheduled a third round for July or early August, Israel’s window of opportunity for a military operation against Iran would start closing fast. The US presidential election would be coming up, for one thing, and all six powers would back Obama up with one voice to accuse Israel of sabotaging the negotiations when they were on the point of successfully resolving the Iranian nuclear impasse.
Diplomatically, Israel would find itself in an untenable situation, said Pardo.
To the conclusions he presented Netanyahu and Barak, he attached a list of new dilemmas that needed to be addressed without delay:
– Will President Obama’s consent to let Iran off the hook of IAEA inspections at key nuclear installations free Tehran’s hands for surreptitiously bringing its nuclear bomb program to completion?
Israeli military and intelligence experts have no doubt at all that it will.
Iran has enough low-grade 2.5-percent enriched uranium accumulated to build one nuclear device now and two soon. It has also piled up 162 pounds of 20-percent enriched uranium.

Iran needs no more than 43 days to assemble a nuke

As the former IAEA deputy director Oli Heinonen has pointed out, mastering 3.5 percent enrichment is 70 percent of the way to mastering the fuel cycle for an atomic weapon. Twenty percent enrichment is 90 percent of the process.
– Does Iran possess the technology for building a nuke?
On this too, the answer is affirmative. Iran’s nuclear scientists have mastered the manufacture of a nuclear trigger. According to the IAEA’s latest report, “Information indicates that Iran has carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device.”
– With the materials and technology already in hand, how long will it take Iran to build a nuclear bomb?
Israel’s prime minister and defense minister were stunned by the answer. It was 43 days!
Not a year, not two or three years. Just a month and a half!
The inescapable conclusion therefore is that if Iran is already secretly manufacturing a N-bomb, unbeknownst to US and Israeli intelligence, the next rounds of negotiations designed to pre-empt a nuclear Iran could find the Islamic Republic already in possession of a bomb.
– If Israel holds back now, will diplomatic and military circumstances permit an attack at a later date?
Military and diplomatic professionals say ‘probably not.’

Short-term versus long-term scenarios

– If Israel goes forward now, will the rift between Israel and the Obama administration grow beyond repair? After all, President Obama explicitly asked Netanyahu to refrain from striking Iran until after he asks the American voter for a second term in November.
Neither Netanyahu nor Barak think the damage to relations would be irreparable.
Certain clues this week pointed to Israel’s two senior policy-makers being closer than ever before to finally settling on an early timeline for the Iran operation, although an alternative scenario is still under discussion. (See a separate article in this issue on the long-term scenario.)
The number of personal advisers with direct access to the prime minister and defense minister was slashed, according to DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources, leaving no more than half a dozen confidential aides each– none known to have any connections in the media. They alone are present at conferences on the Iranian issue, except in cases when Netanyahu and Barak talk one-on-one.
Iran, the subject clearly preying heavily on their minds crept into the speeches both were called on to make on the occasions of Holocaust Remembrance Day and Memorial Day for the Israel Fallen.
Monday, April 23, Barak stated: “Israel must rely above all on itself (not the US) when put to the supreme test. We are capable of contending with any near or distant enemy.” He went on to comment that Israel is the strongest nation “within a 1,500-km radius” – a giveaway in relation to Iran.
In case that point was not missed, the minister said in another speech later: Israel’s threat to attack Iran is serious,” and added, “2012 will be a year of decisions.”

Israel’s top soldier: The IDF stands ready to act

The next day, Tuesday, Netanyahu told a radio interviewer: “We take Iran’s threats to destroy Israel with the utmost seriousness and are bound to prepare to face up to it. I would be happy if sanctions worked, but President Obama and I have said clearly that Tehran cannot be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon and Israel must maintain the ability to defend itself at any time against any threat.”
Israel’s chief of staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz had this to say: The IDF stands ready for an attack on Iran if the government gives the order. “In principle, we are ready to act,” he said.
So far, the order has not been given. But, according to our sources, the final decision may be no more than days off.

IDF chief: Other countries are prepared for possible Iran strike – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Following recent comments that appeared to put Lt. Gen. Gantz at odds with other senior Israeli officials, the IDF Chief of Staff strongly hints that other nations could be backing military action.

By The Associated Press

Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz said on Thursday that other countries have readied their armed forces for a potential strike against Iran’s nuclear sites to keep Tehran from acquiring atomic weapons.

Gantz did not specify which nations might be willing to support or take direct action against Iran. Still, his comments were one of the strongest hints yet that Israel may have the backing of other countries to strike the Islamic Republic to prevent it from developing nuclear arms.”The military force is ready,” Gantz said. “Not only our forces, but other forces as well.”

	IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz.
	Photo by: Archive

“We all hope that there will be no necessity to use this force, but we are absolutely sure of its existence,” he told The Associated Press, adding that he was not speaking on behalf of any other nation.

Gantz said that in his assessment Iran is seeking to develop its “military nuclear capability,” but that the Islamic Republic would ultimately bow to international pressure and decide against building a weapon.

The key to that pressure, he said, were sanctions and the threat of a military strike.

Gantz’s stance on Iran’s intentions appeared to put him at odds with Israel’s political leaders, who have staked out a more hard line position. Gantz denied that was the case Thursday, saying there was no internal disagreement over Iran’s aims.

But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told CNN on Tuesday that international sanctions have not changed Iran’s behavior, and that the country continues to enrich uranium, a key step toward developing a weapon.

The sanctions “haven’t rolled back the Iranian program or even stopped it by one iota,” Netanyahu said.