WarSclerotic

Salehi: Iran is ready to resolve… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

By REUTERS

04/16/2012 15:47

Iran’s foreign minister tells Iranian student news agency he sees possible breakthrough at next talks, deal could be done “very quickly and simply”; he calls for sanctions lift and hints at fuel swap deal.

Photo: REUTERS

DUBAI – Iran is ready to resolve all nuclear issues in the next round of talks with world powers if the West starts lifting sanctions, its foreign minister said on Monday.

In an interview with the Iranian student news agency ISNA, Ali Akbar Salehi also hinted that Iran could make concessions on its higher-grade uranium enrichment, a key concern of Western powers.

“If the West wants to take confidence-building measures it should start in the field of sanctions because this action can speed up the process of negotiations reaching results,” Salehi was quoted as saying.

“If there is goodwill, one can pass through this process very easily and we are ready to resolve all issues very quickly and simply and even in the Baghdad meeting,” he added, referring to a second round of talks with world powers scheduled to take place in the Iraqi capital on May 23.

Salehi described an initial meeting with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany in Istanbul on Saturday as positive and constructive.

The talks had been stalled for more than a year during which time the United States and the European Union tightened sanctions on Iran which they suspect is seeking nuclear weapons capability, a charge Tehran denies.

Salehi said Iran would always assert its right to process uranium for peaceful purposes but that there might be room for a compromise on higher-level enrichment.

“Enrichment is Iran’s right but we can negotiate on how we obtain uranium with different enrichment levels,” he said.

“Making 20 percent (enriched nuclear) fuel is our right as long as it provides for our reactor needs and there is no question about that,” he said, but added: “If they guarantee that they will provide us with the different levels of enriched fuel that we need, then that would be another issue.”

Iran says it needs uranium enriched to a purity of 20 percent to fuel a medical research reactor, but many countries see its enrichment to that level a dangerous step towards the 90 percent enrichment needed for an atomic bomb.

A deal tentatively agreed with the West in 2009 would have seen Iran exporting some of its lower enriched uranium in return for fuel for the medical reactor. The deal unraveled and diplomats on both sides have said it would need to be modified in any future agreement.

Obama says more Iran sanctions c… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

Photo: Reuters

CARTAGENA, Colombia – US President Barack Obama said there would be more sanctions imposed on Iran if there is no breakthrough in nuclear talks with global powers in the coming months, responding to Israeli accusations that Tehran has been given a “freebie.”

At a news conference in Cartagena, Colombia, where he was attending the Summit of the Americas, Obama said negotiations between Iran and six world powers that resumed on Saturday would not stretch on indefinitely and would require Iran to act.

“We’re going to keep on seeing if we make progress. Now, the clocking is ticking and I’ve been very clear to Iran and to our negotiating partners that we’re not going to have these talks just drag out in a stalling process,” Obama said. “But so far at least we haven’t given away anything.”

Negotiators from Iran and six world powers met on Saturday for the first time in more than a year to discuss concerns about Tehran’s nuclear program, which Iran says is for energy and others fear is meant to build an atomic bomb.

The group, which included the United States and the other four permanent UN Security Council members Britain, France, China and Russia, plus Germany, agreed with Iran to reconvene in Baghdad on May 23.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu voiced irritation that the next talks were in more than a month’s time, saying it was critical that Tehran stop enrichment right away.

“My initial impression is that Iran has been given a freebie. It’s got five weeks to continue enrichment without any limitation, any inhibition,” he said earlier on Sunday.

Over the past year, Israeli and US warnings of military strikes if Iran does not stop working on some aspects of nuclear technology have stoked fear of war, and raised oil prices, in an unsettled Middle East.

Obama, who is up for re-election in November, is unlikely to want to start a military dispute with Iran, especially as he works to withdraw US forces from Afghanistan and in the wake of an unpopular war in Iraq.

At the Colombia news conference, Obama said there was still time for talks to ease tensions surrounding Iran.

“We still have a window in which to resolve this conflict diplomatically. That window is closing and Iran needs to take advantage of it,” he said.

The bitter truth about Iran – JPost – Opinion – Op-Eds.

By CHUCK FREILICH

04/15/2012 22:20

Military action is certainly not a panacea. A gain of a few years, however, should also not be dismissed.

Photo: REUTERS/Tolga Adanali/Pool

As the Iranian nuclear program nears its critical stages and the possibility of military action becomes more realistic, highly respected observers – even former senior Israeli officials – have come out strongly against this. US President Barack Obama has made his preference for continued sanctions and diplomacy clear. The US and EU talks with Iran on Saturday did not provide a clear indication of whether Iran is serious about wanting a last- minute deal. The inveterate optimism of diplomats aside, the only clear outcome is a further time gain for Iran, until the next round on May 23.

The US should be willing to offer Iran a generous deal that will address its legitimate interests – even the long-sought assurance that the US will not pursue a regime change. For Israel, painful compromises – such as acquiescence to Iran’s long-standing relationship with Hezbollah – are worth making if they achieve the over-arching goal of preventing a nuclear Iran.

No one disputes that an attack should be considered only as a last resort and would be deeply problematic even then.

All sides greatly prefer a diplomatic outcome, and no one more than Israel, whose interests are most deeply effected and which will bear the brunt of an Iranian retaliation.

For a deal to work, however, one has to have a partner. The simple fact is that Iran has rejected all efforts to reach a negotiated solution to date, beginning with Clinton and renewed with greater emphasis by Obama, and has used the passing time to further develop its nuclear capabilities.

We can hope that the punishing oil and financial sanctions now in place will finally change the Iranian calculus.

Giving the sanctions time to work is certainly the preferred option and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has indicated his willingness to do so. So there still is a limited window for diplomacy, but let us not delude ourselves. Iran has good strategic reasons for seeking nukes, has turned the issue into a domestic cause célèbre, and has so far demonstrated a clear willingness to pay the attendant costs. Hope is important, but is not a substitute for hardheaded policy.

Moreover, there is a fundamental weakness in the argument for diplomacy and sanctions, which reflects a basic unwillingness to face up to the bitter truth and draw the consequent conclusions, painful though they may be: Unless a very unexpected change takes place in Iranian policy, ongoing diplomacy risks becoming a cover for acquiescence to a nuclear Iran and de-facto support for a policy of deterrence and containment.

Although Obama has officially disavowed this option, many believe it to be the likely and even desirable outcome, given the alternatives.

Those who do have the responsibility to say so clearly and openly, not by holding out the probable chimera of a diplomatic resolution.

Military action is certainly not a panacea. Iran already has the know-how needed to reconstitute the program, if attacked, and could reach its current stage of development again within a few years. A gain of a few years, however, should also not be dismissed.

Much can happen in the Middle East in a few years.

For an attack on Iran to make sense, anyone willing to act once would have to be willing to do so again, should the program be reconstituted.

Following an attack, the international community would presumably exert crushing pressure on Iran, in order to deal with the issue and prevent the likelihood of a further strike. Moreover, the time gained would be used for a variety of additional delaying measures, such as renewed subversion, and the long hoped for regime change in Iran might also take place.

Some argue that an attack will merely rally the Iranian people around the regime, which is indeed a likely short-term result. There is, however, no reason to presume that this will be the case once the initial fury passes and Iranians truly consider their interests, especially if the international community continues to impose heavy costs. It should be remembered that the regional uprisings began with the demonstrations in Iran in June 2009.

Diplomacy and sanctions should be pursued during the coming months, while the window of opportunity for doing so still remains open.

Ultimately, however, the choice will come down to one of two danger-fraught alternatives: living with a nuclear Iran through containment and deterrence, or military action. Whichever approach one favors, we owe it to ourselves to face up to this painful choice honestly.

The writer, a Senior Fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy School, was a deputy national security adviser in Israel.

The Associated Press: Obama: US has offered no “freebies” to Iran.

By JULIE PACE, Associated Press – 17 minutes ago

CARTAGENA, Colombia (AP) — Exposing a rift with Israel, President Barack Obama on Sunday insisted that the U.S. had not “given anything away” in new talks with Iran and defended his administration’s continued push for a diplomatic resolution to the dispute over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.

Obama said that while he refused to let the nuclear negotiations turn into a “stalling process,” he was willing to see if Iran was negotiating in good faith. Earlier Sunday, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disagreed with that strategy, saying the U.S. and world powers gave Tehran a “freebie” by agreeing to hold more talks next month.

“So far at least we haven’t given away anything, other than the opportunity for us to negotiate and see if Iran comes to the table in good faith,” Obama said during a news conference Sunday in Colombia, as he wrapped up a diplomatic mission to Latin America. But Obama warned, “The clock’s ticking.”

Winding down his three day trip in the port city of Cartagena, Obama also sought to offer hope for fresh start with Cuba, saying the U.S. would welcome the communist-run island’s transition to democracy. There could be an opportunity for such a shift to take place in the coming years, Obama said.

Standing alongside Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos, Obama also proclaimed a free trade agreement between their countries as a “win-win.” Obama announced that the trade pact can be fully enforced next month, now that Colombia has enacted a series of protections for workers and labor unions.

IAF chief awarded Legion of Merit by USAF comm… JPost – Defense. 

By YAAKOV KATZ

04/15/2012 11:08

Maj.-Gen. Ido Nehushtan given prestigious award by US Air Force Gen. Norton Schwartz who says IAF helped US efforts in Iraq, Afghanistan.

Photo: Courtesy IDF

Israel Air Force commander Maj.-Gen. Ido Nehushtan was awarded the Legion of Merit from Commander of the US Air Force Gen. Norton Schwartz last week during a ceremony in Washington.

Nehushtan, who is scheduled to step down from his post at the end of the month, traveled to the US for a farewell visit and for meetings with Schwartz and other US military officials.

Nehushtan also met with US pilots who have flown on the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter and flew himself in the aircraft’s simulator. Israel is scheduled to begin receiving the fist of the 20 fifth-generation stealth aircraft it has ordered in early 2017.

In the certificate given to Nehushtan with the medal, Schwartz wrote that the IAF has over the years shared intelligence on terrorist organizations in the region with the US.

“This information assisted the United States Air Force efforts in overseas contingency operations in Iraq and Afghanistan,” Schwartz wrote.

Schwartz also hailed Nehushtan’s decision to increase joint training which helped increase interoperability between the two forces.

“General Nehoshtan’s exemplary performance, dynamic leadership and exceptional devotion to duty reflect great credit upon himself, the Israeli Air Force and his country,” the USAF commander wrote.

During his visit, Nehushtan also flew on the V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft that it has its eye on for search and rescue and covert operations behind enemy lines.

The IAF had originally considered using the V-22 to replace its aging fleet of Sikorsky Sea Stallion CH-53 transport helicopters – called Yasour in Israel – but due to the V-22’s smaller size it is being looked at as a complementary platform to assist in IAF search-and- rescue operations and in dropping special forces behind enemy lines.

Israeli TV report shows air force gearing-up for Iran attack, says moment of truth is near | The Times of Israel.

‘IAF expects losses, and knows it can’t destroy entire Iranian program’

By Greg Tepper April 15, 2012, 11:49 pm

File: Fighter jet at the Uvda Air Force Base near Eilat. (photo credit: Ofer Zidon/Flash90)

major Israel TV station on Sunday night broadcast a detailed report on how Israel will go about attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities in the event that diplomacy and sanctions fail and Israel decides to carry out a military strike.

The report, screened on the main evening news of Channel 10, was remarkable both in terms of the access granted to the reporter, who said he had spent weeks with the pilots and other personnel he interviewed, and in the fact that his assessments on a strike were cleared by the military censor.

No order to strike is likely to be given before the P5+1 talks with Iran resume in May, the reporter, Alon Ben-David, said. “But the coming summer will not only be hot but tense.”

In the event that negotiations fail and the order is given for Israel to carry out an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, “dozens if not more planes” will take part in the mission: attack and escort jets, tankers for mid-air refueling, electronic warfare planes and rescue helicopters, the report said.

Ben-David said the Israel Air Force “does not have the capacity to destroy the entire Iranian program.” There will be no replication of the decisive strikes on Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981 or on Syria in 2007, he said. “The result won’t be definitive.” But, a pilot quoted in the report said, the IAF will have to ensure that it emerges with the necessary result, with “a short and professional” assault.

Ben-David said that if negotiations break down, and Iran moves key parts of its nuclear program underground to its Qom facility, the IAF “is likely to get the order and to set out on the long journey to Iran.”

“Years of preparations are likely to come to realization,” he said, adding that “the moment of truth is near.”

Ben-David interviewed several squadron leaders, pilots and other officers. He noted that some of the IAF personnel, “it is likely, will not return from the mission.” An officer named Gilad said it would be “naive” to think there would be no losses.

The IAF is said to be worried about the advanced anti-aircraft systems that Russia has sold to countries in the region, the report said. Among those systems, the SA 17 and 22 in Syria and Iran present a challenge.

According to the report, it’s the older versions of the F-15 that can fly further than any other plane in Israel’s arsenal, and this puts them on the front line of any potential attack.

One pilot said in the report that the F-15 “is a plane with a very wide range of operation — a combination of relatively energy-efficient engines, and significant flightworthiness regarding weapons and fuel.”

The IAF has a full-sized unmanned plane, the “Eitan,” that is said to be able to fly to Iran, the report indicated. “This plane can do all that is required of it when the order is given,” a pilot said, without elaboration.

The attack, the report said, would presumably trigger a war in northern Israel, with missile attacks (presumably from the Iranian-proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon). “There will be no tranquility and peace anywhere in Israel,” Ben-David said.

This could be the first full-scale war the IAF has fought in nearly 30 years, the report stated.

Pilots had already been told where their families would be moved, away from their bases, for safety, the report said.

Egypt’s Suleiman: Israel may consider occupying Sinai – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Ex-regime strongman says he fears ‘price Egypt will have to pay if Israel decides to reoccupy Sinai.’ Calls on political rivals to ‘exercise caution, keep peace in region’ in light of close relations between Egypt and Hamas

Roi Kais

Egyptian presidential candidate Omar Suleiman addressed the relations between Egypt and Israel for the first time since he announced his candidacy earlier this month.

In an interview with Egyptian daily al-Youm al-Saba’a, Suleiman analyzed relations between the two neighboring countries in the wake of the Arab Springand the ongoing terrorist activity originating from the Sinai Peninsula. “I’m fearful of the price Egypt will have to pay if Israel decides to reoccupy Sinai,” he said. 

He called on the Muslim Brotherhood party, which is considered his political rivals, “to exercise caution in an effort to keep peace in the region.”

“I fear that Israel thinks Egypt has become one of its enemies,” he said referring to the close relations between Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood and the current situation in Sinai.

“Israel regards the Sinai Peninsula as an unsecure area, and is lead by the notion that Egyptian territory can be used for rocket launching. Therefore, Israel may consider returning to secure borders,” he added.

Suleiman with PM Netanyahu (Photo: GPO)

Asked whether he plans to reoccupy Sinai, Suleiman replied: “It’s possible that Israel will confront us and use its national security as an excuse to do so. Israelis are experts at presenting such excuses to the world.”

He further said that he is fearful of misleading signals that could lead to unwanted confrontations. “If the Israelis reenter Sinai, they won’t be quick to leave it again. Egypt could pay a heavy price if such an event occurred,” he said.

According to Suleiman, “Egypt should continue tightening its relationship with Hamas but not at the expense of the country’s national interests, regional security and peace that will all enable Egypt to further develop internally.”

Suleiman, appointed deputy president by Mubarak in his last days in power, entered the presidential race at the last moment, triggering both concern and heavy criticism from reformists who see him as a symbol of Mubarak’s rule and a danger to democracy.

Tens of thousands of Egyptians packed into Cairo’s Tahrir Square on Friday to protestagainst Suleiman’s run for the presidency. Muslim Brotherhood supporters waved banners depicting the presidential candidate as an agent of Israel.

Meanwhile, the body overseeing Egypt’s presidential election recently disqualified10 candidates from the race, including Suleiman.

According to election rules, disqualified candidates have 48 hours to appeal the decision. The final list of candidates will be announced on April 26.

Suleiman told Egyptian media sources that the commission did not fully disqualify him but had told him that he had not presented the proper number of endorsements. Each candidate needed at least 30,000 endorsements, including at least 1,000 from each of the country’s 15 provinces, to join the race.

In response to his “temporary” disqualification, Suleiman pledged to press ahead with his campaign out of respect to his supporters.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 15, 2012, 10:18 PM (GMT+02:00)

Russian guided missile destroyer

Announcing he is not responsible for the safety of UN observers on their way to Syria if they don’t obey his rules, President Bashar Assad has set in motion steps for prolonging his war on the Syrian people rather than abiding by a truce. debkafile discloses he offered Moscow and Beijing $30 billion worth of government bonds for a massive injection of funds to replenish his depleted war chest.

And at the UN Security Council, while Russia’s Vitaly Churkin in a surprise turnabout voted with the West on a UN observer team to secure the Syrian ceasefire, Moscow quietly sent warships to Syrian shores to secure the Assad regime.

The heaviest outlay for keeping the massive Syrian war machine turning over is on fuel. Countless tanks, self-propelled artillery, thousands of trucks and tank transporters are constantly on the move from one rebel flashpoint to another, reinforcing embattled units and ferrying troops, equipment and ammunition.
Iran covers the payroll for military and security personnel and the government bodies keeping the regime functioning – to the tune of more than half a billion dollars a month, according to estimates. But the embargo on fuel sales to Syria puts Assad in the hands of Lebanese merchants. He has run out of funds to meet their exorbitant charges for petrol and diesel, without which his military crackdown on the opposition would grind to a stop. Russia and China have therefore been asked for the necessary funding.
Moscow, meanwhile, announced Friday, April 13, “A decision has been made to deploy Russian warships near the Syrian shores on a permanent basis.”

The communiqué did not say who made the decision, but it may be assumed that the decision-maker is at the top level of the Kremlin, President-elect Vladimir Putin.
It is the first time that Moscow has officially announced the permanent deployment of naval vessels in the eastern Mediterranean and off Syria in particular. They extend a protective shield over Bashar Assad and the continuation of his regime against outside military intervention. They also guarantee that the UN observer team, due in Damascus by Monday, April 16, never becomes the nucleus of a broader international expedition for Assad’s removal under the UN aegis, which is what happened in Libya.
Moscow is making sure that the monitors adhere strictly to their Security Council mandate, determined not to leave it Washington or NATO to set out their areas of operation and powers. Assad drove this point home Sunday when ahead of their arrival in Damascus, he warned that he would not be responsible for the observers’ safety if they failed to comply with his rules
Western and Israeli military circles therefore find it hard to understand the rationale of the US and Turkish push for international monitors in Syria, unless the initiative was nothing more than a device to save them having to intervene militarily in the conflict.

In the final reckoning, the presence of a couple of hundred UN monitors in Syria will if anything prolong the violence: the rebels will regard the observers as the vanguard of a major international intervention force to champion their cause, while Assad and Moscow will clip their wings so as to give the Syrian army a free hand to finish the job of wiping out the anti-Assad revolt.  Between the two, the UN team will be rendered useless like the Arab League monitors before them.
Seeing Russia and China solidly behind him, the Syria ruler expects them also to put their hands in their pockets to help him survive.

Israel Hayom | On nuclear talks, one step sideways, two steps back.

Iran and the P5+1 are presenting the world with a new approach – succeeding in negotiations without making progress • The six powers delighted in “new initiatives” • The problem is that Iran rejected the same initiatives two years ago.

A strange meeting took place in Istanbul on Saturday. Both sides to the renewed nuclear talks between Iran and the major world powers tried to present a new concept: succeeding in negotiations without making any progress. Under these circumstances, it came as no real shock to anyone that the big achievement coming out of the talks was the general agreement that there is even an issue to discuss, and there is also a date and a venue for the next round: May 23, in Baghdad.

The talks between Iran and the five world powers (Russia, China, the U.S., Britain, France plus Germany), were “constructive and useful,” E.U. foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton announced on Saturday.

“We have agreed that the nonproliferation treaty forms a key basis for what must be serious engagement to ensure all the obligations under the treaty are met by Iran while fully respecting Iran’s right to the peaceful use of nuclear energy,” she said. “We expect that subsequent meetings will lead to concrete steps toward a comprehensive negotiated solution which restores international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of the Iranian nuclear program.”

While the six powers communicated their stance, Iran gained precisely what it was after: time. It is no wonder that Iran’s leaders were all smiles following the meeting. “We didn’t expect to be received in this way,” said one member of the delegation from Tehran. “We didn’t think that the world powers would display such a positive attitude.”

He added that the Western delegations were enthused by the fatwa (Islamic decree) issued by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei against nuclear weapons, calling it an example for other nations. The head of the Iranian delegation, Saeed Jalili, also presented the meeting as a big achievement, telling reporters that the West understood that “for the Iranian people the language of threats and pressure doesn’t work.”

The nuclear talks between Iran and the West resumed after a 15-month hiatus. Iran promised “new initiatives” and the world powers tried to persuade Iran to accept Western demands: Halt uranium enrichment to 20 percent, decommission the underground Fordo nuclear facility and allow impromptu International Atomic Energy Agency inspections at suspected nuclear sites.

On the eve of the talks, Ashton met with Jalili at the Iranian consulate in Istanbul, and the two later dined together. That same evening, Jalili’s second-in-command met with the heads of the Russian and Chinese delegations, both of whom oppose imposing further sanctions on the Islamic Republic. On the other hand, according to French news agency AFP, the Iranian delegation “spurned a request from their U.S. counterparts for what would have been a rare bilateral meeting on the sidelines in Istanbul.”

On Saturday morning, the Iranian delegation arrived at the Istanbul convention center. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu smiled from ear to ear when he shook Jalili’s hand, following a private meeting between them the previous night. But in fact, the Turks are furious at the Iranians, who asked to relocate the second round of talks from Istanbul to Baghdad.

During a break in the talks, a Western diplomat said that the “new” Iranian initiative was to swap the uranium enriched to 20% in its possession for internationally supervised nuclear fuel. Iran even offered to hand the uranium it has enriched to 3.5% over to Russia and France to be turned into nuclear fuel. The problem is that this very initiative includes the same propositions Iran itself rejected two years ago.

In any case, in light of the Iranians’ euphoria, one of the heads of the European delegations sought to dampen the enthusiasm. “The Iranians will act as though they are on top, but they forget that they are not in a normal situation – the burden of proof is on them,” one European diplomat told Israel Hayom. “They are playing for time, but this time there are debilitating sanctions in place.”

Israel Hayom | The talks with Iran.

The talks with Iran