Archive for April 28, 2012

Your opinion ?

April 28, 2012

I’m tired of reading the opinions of know-it-all pundits…

The truth is NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING ! 

It’s all just opinion; some educated some ignorant.

I know that the readers of this site are as educated as anyone can be who is not privy to classified information.  As such, I am curious to know what conclusions you all may have come to. 

I’ll leave the poll up as the headline story on the site for the week it will be active.  Thank you all in advance for your participation.

– JW

The comments on this post so far are interesting enough for me to add them to the post itself.  I encourage all to voice their thoughts.  – JW

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12 Comments on “Your opinion ?”

  1. Renbe Says:

    April 29, 2012 at 4:14 AM eWhere is the option : “Neither Israel nor the US will attack Iran, because a) it’s against International Law, b) the costs will be too high and c) It won’t achieve anything

    • Luis Says:

      April 29, 2012 at 9:55 AM eWe had seen that movie already, Renbe, dear, our little friend. It was a nice time, in the ‘ 38 , and the great powers decided to let the friendly Hitler to have his way and so it did. Dont worry, this time the jews wont be an easy prey. A…and dont forget to deliver my best regards to our common little friend , Ahmad, the great jews lover and big fan of the state of Israel. Isnt he naughty ?

      • Renbe Says:

        April 29, 2012 at 8:39 PM eUtter nonsense. There is no comparison possible between 2012 and 70+ years ago. Iran didn’t invade any country and has no intentions to do so either. Yuval Diskin was right, a sane voice in a sea of madness

    • endgame Says:

      April 29, 2012 at 5:41 PM ethat is the most ridicules statement i have ever read,do you really think that we would move all that military hardware as a bluff,what is above is the truth,written by someone with some serious in depth inside information well,the fact they have stuck there neck out to leak whats really going on puts them in grave danger and the know it they risk all for Israel,God bless him

  2. MCJ Says:

    April 29, 2012 at 8:09 PM eWhile In route to Iran drop one on the Dome of the Rock !! Now thats how you send a clear signal !! As for the people of the USA, we stand with you.

  3. dontneedaname Says:

    April 29, 2012 at 9:30 PM eenjoy ur blog about israel-iran issues…keep the updates coming.

  4. Louisiana Steve Says:

    April 30, 2012 at 3:34 PM eJW, I have to admit. I voted “I just can’t figure” because I just can’t figure. Nothing would surprise me, unless they do the ‘right’ thing and stop Iran now.

  5. Luis Says:

    April 30, 2012 at 5:49 PM eRenbe, you really don’t get it, do you ? Iran rhetoric is a nazi one and their Leader promised to wipe the jewish state off map. You must tell us quickly what history books do you read to be sure you are writing from the same planet.

    • Renbe Says:

      April 30, 2012 at 10:05 PM eIf you believe in fairy tales and propaganda, sure. But recently even an Israeli minister finally admitted that Iran (Ahmadinedjad) never actually said “Iran” would wipe Israel off the map. Nazi Germany wanted to expand its territory, Iran doesn’t, so there is no comparison with Iran. In any case, there is not going to be an attack on Iran, Not by the US, and surely not by Israel, sorry. Iran will make some minor concessions and the US will acknowledge Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear research, including enrichment.

  6. Norm Says:

    April 30, 2012 at 5:52 PM eI think that President Obama, desperately seeking to avoid a war with Iran prior to the election in November has made a secret under the table understanding with Iran. That Iran could quietly continue its nuclear work up to actually putting together a bomb; that Iran would put out nice peaceful press releases; and the United States will not attack. If Obama is reelected, then Iran will show off its weapons and Obama’s policy will be that Israel must live with a nuclearized Iran….under a policy of mutually assured destruction.

    • Renbe Says:

      April 30, 2012 at 10:11 PM eYou are right up and until Iran producing a nuclear device. Firstly it is virtually impossible to produce one secretly, and secondly, if there is no threat (from Israel/US) there is no reason to build one. The whole world, minus Israel, (with the exception of some former heads of Mossad and Generals) is at the moment in agreement that any attack on Iran will not solve anything, and would in fact, only make matters worse. So, please rest assured, there is not going to be any attack, and Iran will not build a nuclear device.

Arab press wonders: Is Israel going to attack or not?

April 28, 2012

Arab press wonders: Is Israel going to attack or not? | The Times of Israel.

( Disinfo on steroids ! – JW )

Commentators try to make sense of the Barak-Gantz contradictory statements on Iran

IDF Chief of the General Staff Maj. Gen. Benny Gantz, center, participates in a Memorial Day Ceremony, April 25, 2012. (photo credit: Marc Israel Sellem/Flash90)

IDF Chief of the General Staff Maj. Gen. Benny Gantz, center, participates in a Memorial Day Ceremony, April 25, 2012. (photo credit: Marc Israel Sellem/Flash90)
Contradictory statements by the IDF’s top brass have left newscasters and pundits in the Arab press with more questions than answers.

In an article Saturday entitled “Israel’s Increasing Ambiguity on Iran,” Elaph, a leading Arabic online newspaper, cites IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz saying that economic sanctions have been effective against Iran, and further, that “I do not believe Iran will decide to develop nuclear weapons.”

Elaph juxtaposes his stance with Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s statement on Friday that sanctions had almost no chance of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The newspaper features a follow up article which includes the Iranian response to Barak and Gantz. Iranian Spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ramin Mehmanparsat said that sanctions had actually “strengthened” the Iranian economy by making it more “self sufficient.” He also said that the Iranian military was in a position of unprecedented strength, and the chance of an attack on Iran was “very small.”

An editorial in Al Arabiya entitled “War on Iran” also addresses the effects of economic sanctions. Saad bin Ajami compares Iran to North Korea and argues that, indeed, economic sanctions are working. The crippling effect on the North Korean economy and continuing food shortage have dissuaded Iran from pursuing a similar course. Ajami further argues that the irrational and often erratic behavior of North Korea’s leaders could not be expected from Iran.

Al Ahram also cites Barak’s comments in discussing the potential for a regional arms race between Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey, should Iran acquire nuclear weapons. Headlined with a front page photo of Barak addressing a unit of IDF soldiers, the article does not mention Gantz’s statement, but highlights Barak’s view that Israel remains a regional power “from Tripoli to Tehran.”

Upcoming anniversary of bin Laden’s death

Ahead of the May 2 anniversary of Osama bin Laden’s death, numerous Arabic papers feature articles on his legacy and family. Both Al Quds and Elaph cite White House Press Secretary Jay Carney saying that much of the Al Qaeda “nucleus” had been destroyed. According to the report, the threat of further attacks still remains, and is intensified by the geographic depth of Al Qaeda and the enduring support for “global Jihad.”

A Sharq Al Awsat focuses on potential security risks in the United Sates ahead of the coming anniversary. The newspaper cites the Obama administration’s announcement that it was not aware of any credible threats, but still urged “caution” and prudence. A Sharq al Awsat also mentions Joe Biden’s comments this week at a speech at New York University. Taking jabs at likely presidential candidate Mitt Romney, the newspaper views the outright criticism of Romney’s foreign policy as marking the beginning of the presidential race.

Al Quds runs another article that discusses members of bin Laden’s family and their detainment in Pakistan for almost a year. Bin Laden’s three wives and two daughters are being deported to Saudi Arabia after serving out a sentence for illegal residency. Al Quds also notes that the legacy of the attack on bin Laden remains tainted, as requests to release footage and detailed information about the incursion into Pakistan had recently been denied by the court on the grounds of “legitimate security considerations.”

Salafists losing steam in Tahrir

Al Ahram reports that rallies in Egypt’s Tahrir Square for barred candidate Hazem Abu Ismail have lost steam and had a small turnout yesterday. The protest planned by supporters of Abu Ismail, and also endorsed by Ikhwan Online, the official news site of the Muslim Brotherhood, was largely overshadowed by protests elsewhere. Dar Al Hayat similarly emphasizes that the showing in Tahrir was noticeably smaller than the preceding weeks which included tens of thousands of supporters.

Al Masry al Youm described the Friday protest as being significantly more robust, highlighting the “thousands of supporters” who marched to the Ministry of Defense and who are staging an ongoing protest there. Leading with photos of the demonstration in front of cadres of military personnel, Al Masry Al Youm states that the Salafist movement denies organizing this protest and has call for sit-ins elsewhere.

Local Egyptian paper Youm7 also overshadows Friday’s protest with the ongoing demonstration at the Ministry of Defense, and describes the gathering as a more diverse group, with April 6 Movement followers and Ultras taking part as well.

30 Syrian soldiers defect during clashes near Latakia | The Times of Israel

April 28, 2012

30 Syrian soldiers defect during clashes near Latakia | The Times of Israel.

Desertions occur as Assad forces and rebels clash in coastal village home to a presidential palace

April 28, 2012, 10:45 am
Free Syrian Army fighters gather during fighting against government troops in Idlib, north Syria (photo credit: AP/Rodrigo Abd)

Free Syrian Army fighters gather during fighting against government troops in Idlib, north Syria (photo credit: AP/Rodrigo Abd)
Thirty Syrian soldiers defected from President Bashar Assad’s army on Saturday from their post near a presidential palace in Latakia, according to Al Arabiya.

The report of Assad forces defecting came as government forces clashed with Syrian rebels in the coastal city. They are the latest in a steady trickle of desertions by Syrian Army officers and soldiers since the conflict began 13 months ago.

Saturday’s fighting took place in the village of Burj Islam, where one of Assad’s presidential palaces is located, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported.

The attacks happened a day after a bomb detonated near a mosque in Damascus killing nine people and injuring more than 20. Government news outlets described the attack as a “terrorist bombing” and claimed the victims were civilians and government forces.

Eighteen others were killed across Syria on Friday, according to the Local Coordination Committees.

US changes tune on Iranian nukes

April 28, 2012

US changes tune on Iranian nukes | The Times of Israel.

The Obama administration might let Tehran enrich uranium to 5% if it guarantees international oversight

April 28, 2012,
A worker outside the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran (photo credit: AP/Vahid Salemi)

A worker outside the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran (photo credit: AP/Vahid Salemi)
Obama administration officials said they might let Iran keep part of its disputed nuclear program if Tehran were to restrict its ability to develop a nuclear weapon, the Los Angeles Times reported on Saturday.

US government officials said that if the Iranian government agrees to unrestricted inspections and strict oversight, Iran could continue enriching uranium to 5% purity, the upper limit for non-military nuclear uses.

A senior Obama administration official told the Los Angeles Times that if Iran fulfills monitoring and safeguard requirements set by the UN and world powers, “there can be a discussion” of allowing non-military enrichment, “and maybe we can get there, potentially.”

He emphasized the fact that Iran’s past refusal to meet international requirements makes the likelihood of such an arrangement unlikely.

Both the US and Iran have hinted at a reevaluation of their positions on the Iranian nuclear issue ahead of a second round of negotiations scheduled for May 13. Earlier this week, Al Arabiya reported that members of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps urged Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to consider halting uranium enrichment at 20%.

The Obama administration’s discussion of a softening of stance will likely prompt vociferous objections from Israeli leaders and Republican politicians. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak reject the possibility of any Iranian nuclear program and have stated that Israel will not tolerate a nuclear-capable Iran.

Iran has produced approximately 100 kilograms of 20%-enriched uranium for what it claims are peaceful purposes, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. It has purified almost 6 tons at 5% or below. Weaponized uranium is 90% enriched or more.

New round of Iran nuclear talks set for mid-May in Vienna

April 28, 2012

New round of Iran nuclear talks set for mid-May in Vienna | The Times of Israel.

Iran’s ambassador to IAEA says scheduling of talks demonstrates country’s ‘cooperation;’ diplomats say Iran must answer about Parchin

April 28, 2012
Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, speaking about Iran's refusal to allow IAEA inspectors into key nuclear sites in February (photo credit: screen capture, YouTube)

Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, speaking about Iran’s refusal to allow IAEA inspectors into key nuclear sites in February (photo credit: screen capture, YouTube)
Iran’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency Ali Asghar Soltanieh told IRNA Friday that a new round of nuclear talks between Iran and the P5+1 Group, comprised of the permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany, will take place May 13-14 in Vienna.

The decision to hold the talks proves that Tehran intends to cooperate with the nuclear watchdog and that “claims against Iran are baseless,” Soltanieh told the Iranian news site. The meetings will be held in Iran’s permanent representative’s office in Vienna.

The last round of talks took place in Istanbul in early April. They were deemed a moderate success by the parties, mostly for the goodwill demonstrated, despite a lack of firm commitments by Iran. The next session had been scheduled for Baghdad on May 23.

IAEA diplomats said Iran will have to answer questions about its inspectors’ abilities to visit the military complex in Parchin, one of Iran’s most contested nuclear sites, located southeast of Tehran. IAEA inspectors who tried to visit the site in February 2012 were sent home by Iran. They were trying to inquire about high-explosives tests allegedly carried out there a few years ago.

 

US deploys F-22 fighter jets to UAE in apparent message to Iran

April 28, 2012

US deploys F-22 fighter jets to UAE in apparent message to Iran | The Times of Israel.

The ‘most sophisticated fighter in the world’ now stationed 200 miles from Iranian border

April 28, 2012, 5:42 pm

The F-22 Raptor (photo credit: Rob Shenk/Wikimedia Commons)

The F-22 Raptor (photo credit: Rob Shenk/Wikimedia Commons)
The US has quietly begun to deploy its premier F-22 stealth fighter planes to an allied base in the United Arab Emirates, according to a report in Aviation Weekly, which described the move as a message to Iran.

“The United States Air Force has deployed F-22s to Southwest Asia,”  service spokesman Capt. Phil Ventura said in a statement. “Such deployments strengthen military-to-military relationships, promote sovereign and regional security, improve combined tactical air operations and enhance interoperability of forces, equipment and procedures.”

According to the report, the F-22 Raptor, manufactured by Lockheed Martin, is considered “the most sophisticated fighter in the world,” and the timing of the deployment could serve as a signal to Iran regarding the Islamic republic’s controversial nuclear program.

Air Force spokesperson Lt. Col. John Dorrian would not specify what the mission of the F-22 would be, nor did he say how many planes were deployed, according to ABC News. Dorrian claimed, however, that the fighter jets posed “no threat to Iran.”

The F-22 Raptors are now stationed at the Al Dafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates, approximately 200 miles from Iran and 800 miles from Tehran.

Ministers slam ex-intelligence chief Diskin for branding Netanyahu, Barak as ‘not fit to lead Israel’ and wrong on Iran

April 28, 2012

Ministers slam ex-intelligence chief Diskin for branding Netanyahu, Barak as ‘not fit to lead Israel’ and wrong on Iran | The Times of Israel.

Devastating critique from former Shin Bet head outstrips even the repeated criticisms of ex-Mossad boss Meir Dagan

April 28, 2012,

Former Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin (left) and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last year. (photo credit: Moshe Milner/GPO/Flash90)

Former Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin (left) and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last year. (photo credit: Moshe Milner/GPO/Flash90)
Likud ministers reacted furiously on Saturday to a scathing attack Friday by Yuval Diskin, the former head of the Shin Bet, on the competence of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and their handling of the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear drive.

Ministers lined up to criticize Diskin for comments they variously described as better left unsaid in public, unfortunate, and motivated by a political agenda. One minister, who chose not to be identified, went so far as to characterize Diskin as the latest in a line of “moronic” intelligence chiefs.

Responding to Diskin’s comments in a Channel 2 interview on Saturday, Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman (Yisrael Beiteinu) said, “If [Diskin] didn’t have faith in the prime minister and defense minister, he should have resigned before the end of his term.”

In his verbal assault on Friday, the ex-Shin Bet chief charged that Netanyahu and Barak acted out of “messianistic” impulses, said they were misleading the public over the Iranian challenge, and added that he had no faith in their capacity to launch a war on Iran or extricate Israel from one.

Speaking at the Majdi Forum in Kfar Saba, a Tel Aviv suburb, Diskin said there might be “a measure of truth” in the first component of the Netanyahu-Barak assertions that “if Israel doesn’t act, the Iranians will get the bomb.” But there was no truth in the second component they were peddling — that “if Israel does act, the Iranians won’t get the bomb.” He said the two politicians were appealing to “the idiots within the Israeli public” in making that claim.

Diskin, who stepped down as Shin Bet chief after six years last year, and who has never previously spoken out publicly in this way, said Netanyahu and Barak were not fit to lead Israel. “I don’t have confidence” in either of them, he said. This was not the leadership that was needed if Israel was to embark on an attack on Iran, not the leadership capable of stewarding a possible regional war.

He cited experts who had long argued, credibly he said, that an Israeli attack on Iran would simply enable the regime there to speed to the bomb openly, with a perceived increased sense of legitimacy.

Diskin’s critique outstrips in its ferocity and personal nature even the repeated public assaults on government thinking regarding Iran that have been launched in recent months by the head of the other intelligence agency who served in parallel with him, ex-Mossad chief Meir Dagan. Dagan has blasted as “stupid” the notion that an Israeli attack on Iran should be contemplated in the near future.

Netanyahu and Barak, by contrast, have in recent months indicated that sanctions on Iran are not working, and that the moment of truth on possible military intervention is only months away.

The fact that both the long-serving ex-intelligence chiefs who have worked with the current coalition are now so publicly and stridently denouncing the thinking of the top political leadership gives added significance to the onslaught. Both were involved until recently in compiling and assessing the most sensitive information; both worked extremely closely with the leaders Diskin so personally attacked on Friday.

Vice Prime Minister Silvan Shalom responded to Diskin’s statement saying, “Such things don’t need to be said. Discussion about the Iranian issue should be held differently. I trust Barak and Netanyahu to run things properly, but the decision will be made by a wider forum.”

Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz called Diskin’s remarks “crude and inappropriate” and said it is ”clear that the timing and style of his comments stem from personal rather than substantive motives.”

Culture and Sports Minister Limor Livnat said Diskin’s remarks were extraneous and unbefitting one who held his former position.

MK Yoel Hasson (Kadima) suggested that Diskin’s comments could prompt an investigation into Netanyahu and Barak’s conduct.

A senior minister close to Netanyahu harshly criticized Diskin, saying, “He perpetuates a legacy of moronic Shin Bet chiefs.”

Diskin also derided Barak’s assessment that Bashar Assad would soon lose power in Syria, saying that the Assad regime would survive unless there was western intervention.

He also called for an interim agreement with the Palestinians, even though no “end of conflict” accord was feasible. If Israel did not wake up to the imperative for such an accord, Mahmoud Abbas would be gone, and the situation would be far more complex.

Diskin also warned of dozens of Jewish extremists, in the territories and inside Israel, who were capable of picking up weapons against other Jews, and said there could even be a repeat of the assassination of a prime minister, as befell Yitzhak Rabin in 1995.

Israel’s defense chiefs disagree on whether or not Iran is rational

April 28, 2012

Israel Hayom | Israel’s defense chiefs disagree on whether or not Iran is rational.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak seeks to set the record straight as he sees it after Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen Benny Gantz tells Haaretz that Iran “is very rational” and probably won’t go the extra mile to build a bomb.

Lilach Shoval, Eli Leon and News Agencies
Defense Minister Ehud Barak at the Air Force Center in Herzliya on Thursday.

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Photo credit: Yehoshua Yosef

Defense Minister Ehud Barak restated Israel’s fears of a nuclear-armed Iran on Thursday, after Israel’s top general appeared to clash with the government’s line by describing the Islamic republic as “very rational” and unlikely to build a bomb.

Gantz’s stance on Iran’s intentions appeared to put him at odds with Israel’s political leaders, who have staked out a more hardline position. Gantz denied that was the case Thursday, saying there was no internal disagreement over Iran’s aims.

Addressing foreign diplomats on Israel’s Independence Day, Barak said Iranian leaders were not “rational in the Western sense of the word, which implies the quest for status quo and the peaceful resolution of problems.”

It would border on “blindness or irresponsibility” to believe otherwise, Barak said. He said Iran, with its religiously fuelled calls for the Jewish state’s demise, was seeking regional hegemony and was “undeterred by the apocalyptic.”

While Barak’s speech reiterated international concerns that Iran’s uranium enrichment program has military designs and Israel’s readiness to attack its foe pre-emptively, some of the language was unusually strong for Barak. A transcript circulated to the media had key passages underlined.

Another official told Reuters that Barak wanted to “set things straight” after Israel Defense Forces Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz said in a newspaper interview this week that Iran was preparing components of a bomb but was unlikely to “go the extra mile” of assembling it, given the likely global backlash. Barak’s speech did not mention Gantz specifically.

“I think the Iranian leadership is composed of very rational people,” Gantz told Haaretz, the liberal daily, on Wednesday.

In lobbying world powers to stiffen sanctions designed to curb Iran’s uranium enrichment, Israel has long appealed to their worries about Middle East destabilization and oil shock.

This has entailed warning that an Iranian bomb would embolden Islamist militants, spark arms races, and rattle energy markets. It has also entailed hinting that Israel — assumed to have the region’s only atomic arsenal — could go to war to thwart what it regards as a mortal threat should it deem that foreign diplomacy with Tehran is at a dead end.

Six world powers revived negotiations with Iran in Istanbul last month and are due to resume them in Baghdad on May 23.

Barak was pessimistic about the talks, saying Iran was buying time to dig in behind defenses that would allow its nuclear facilities to fend off aerial attack.

“The sanctions today are harsher that in the past,” he said. “But the truth must be told. The chance that, at this level of pressure, Iran will meet the international demand to stop the program irrevocably — that chance appears to be low.”

During Israel’s Holocaust Remembrance Day last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran was “feverishly working to develop atomic weapons” to use against his country. Speaking on CNN on Tuesday, Netanyahu said he would not want to bet “the security of the world on Iran’s rational behavior.” A “militant Islamic regime,” he said, “can put their ideology before their survival.”

The portrayal of Iran as irrational — willing to attack Israel with a nuclear weapon even if it means inviting catastrophic retaliation in kind — could bolster a case for pre-emptive bombing to take out its atomic facilities.

The U.S. has also not ruled out military action as a last resort. But many allies of Washington, and even some senior U.S. officials, fear such an attack could ignite a broader war while only delaying Iran’s nuclear advances.

Gantz’s assessment appeared to be in step with the view of his U.S. counterpart, Gen. Martin Dempsey, who said in a CNN interview in February that he believed Iran was a “rational actor” and it would be premature to take military action against it.

“Iran with nuclear military capability will start an arms race in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and even the new Egypt will be forced to join the race,” Barak said Thursday at a conference at the Air Force Center in Herzliya.

“A nuclear Iran will work to support Hezbollah and Hamas, and will sow terror throughout the world,” Barak warned.

On the U.S.’s approach, Barak said, “The U.S. government understands very well that Israel has a different take on the issue and the risks involved for Israel. The government understands that Israel must be able to defend itself on its own.”

One day after his interview with Haaretz, Gantz also addressed Israel’s willingness to defend itself, telling The Associated Press on Thursday, “The military force is ready. Not only our forces, but other forces as well. We all hope that there will be no necessity to use this force, but we are absolutely sure of its existence.”

Gantz did not mention which countries would be willing to intervene directly in Iran, but his statement underlined the support Israel is receiving for a possible military operation against the Islamic Republic. Gantz emphasized that he is not speaking in the name of any other country.

President Shimon Peres echoed Gantz’s comments. In an interview Thursday with Israeli Channel 2 TV, Peres said, “We are not alone on this issue.”

The president dismissed claims that Israel faces an existential threat. “We have overcome, I believe, more difficult situations,” he said.

According to French news agency AFP, U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said on Thursday that he hoped Gantz’s assessment of Iran’s “rational” leadership was correct.

“I would hope [Gantz is] correct and he knows something more than I do,” Panetta said during a visit to Chile, according to AFP. “I do not have any specific information that indicates [the Iranians] have made any decision one way or another on whether to build a nuclear weapon. I would like to hope that because of the leadership of the United States, the international community and the leadership of Israel, they can make the right decision.”

Sinai is unhinged; Egypt is worsening; Syria is unstable, and oh yes, there’s Iran too

April 28, 2012

Israel Hayom | Sinai is unhinged; Egypt is worsening; Syria is unstable, and oh yes, there’s Iran too.

As Israel turns 64, the country stands before one of the most fateful decisions it has ever had to make, in a region undergoing intense tumult • In a wide-ranging interview, IDF Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen Benny Gantz looks at the challenges and threats of our neighborhood, and calls on the government to enact compulsory duty for all citizens, saying “We are half-the-people’s army. It’s not sustainable.”

Amos Regev and Yoav Limor
Gantz: “The IDF must use every avenue to prepare an operational alternative wherever it will be asked to take action.”

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Photo credit: Dudi Vaaknin

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IDF Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen Benny Gantz is aware of the decisive role that history has summoned him for. Unlike a number of his predecessors, he is taking pains to avoid placing himself at the center of attention by making his opinions public. At the same time, however, he has stated his opinions frankly and forthrightly when asked.

When we met this week shortly after Holocaust Remembrance Day and just before Independence Day, the period which symbolizes the days in which we recognize destruction and celebrate renewal, he was very careful not to cross that thin line separating a public servant and an elected official. But reading in between the lines of what he said, it is possible to discern clear-cut, unequivocal positions.

“An Iran with a militarized nuclear capability could potentially be an existential threat, but it is not necessarily an existential threat,” he said. “These statements were made in the past and I think it would be appropriate to clarify them. We are the strongest country in the region, and I think that we need to make sure that the situation stays this way in the future. The problem of a nuclear Iran is much more of a global problem than it is an Israeli problem, so we need to find every possible way to make sure that the international community doesn’t let up in dealing with this, and I think that it is doing this. I think that what we see in terms of sanctions and the international pressure and the statements that we hear from the Americans are all indications that the world is moving in this direction.”

And what if the world doesn’t succeed?

“The IDF must use every avenue to prepare an operational alternative wherever it will be asked to take action; and at the last possible moment that this will be feasible given the strategic conditions that prevail. And this is what the IDF has been doing in recent years. I think we have a considerable capacity to act. In a businesslike fashion, we need to prepare to implement this capability, but we should also understand the ramifications of this type of event.”

Do you believe the Americans are serious in their intentions to stop Iran?

“I believe they are serious. They are simply judging the situation from a different point of view than we are. The difference between us and the Americans are found in two areas: the scope of our capacity to act, and the sense of urgency. They have many more capabilities, but, as a result, they don’t feel that sense of urgency. We do feel a great sense of urgency. There is also the simple yet critical fact that there aren’t two giant oceans that separate us from Iran, and we are living with our civilians in a war zone.”

In your meetings with them, have they tried to convince you not to attack?

“In the meeting room, I hear the same things that you have heard in public, only worded differently. We haven’t asked for permission and we haven’t been given any stop signs. Israel is a sovereign state with the ability to make its own decisions, and they [the Americans] understand this as well. There are discussions and exchanges of opinion on strategic matters, but I do not ask anyone for permission, and I don’t accept dictates.”

If Iran decides to make a mad dash toward the bomb, how long would it take for it to manufacture one?

“It’s a matter of a year, two years.”

And if the supreme leader, Khamenei, decided to attain a militarized nuclear capability, would we know about it in time?

“I think that we will either see a major breakthrough or some integrative processes, or something else that we are supposed to see in this whole story. So we need to make every effort, in conjunction with the international community, and particularly the Americans, to make sure this doesn’t happen, and to prepare for the possibility that we will have to face this challenge.

“It seems to me that on the one hand it is our professional duty to prepare an operational alternative, and on the other hand to maintain a strategic dialogue where it needs to take place. From the most ethical place possible, I am telling you that we are handling this in the most professional and clear-sighted way possible. And we are not devoid of this capability. Far from it.”

Is the home front ready for what is likely to happen in the wake of such an attack?

“The home front needs to get itself organized irrespective of the Iranian issue. The threat of missiles and rockets present in the Middle East, with or without Iran, requires the home front to be ready. We are talking about tens of thousands of missiles deployed from the north and almost 10,000 missiles deployed in the south, so we need to continue to improve the defenses of the home front, because life in the Middle East will not change.”

Depth missions

One of the most significant decisions made by Gantz in the 15 months he has been on the job was to establish the Depth Corps, a fourth army command [the IDF currently has Southern, Central, and Northern Commands] assigned to handle theatres that do not have a common border with Israel. These are areas, far away from our borders, in which terrorists hold training camps and orders are giving to carry out attacks against Israel. The goal of the new command is to combine the capabilities of units and organizations, so as to enable new forms of thinking to come to the fore and to craft new operational plans.

“The long-range threat is not something that I can ignore,” Gantz tells us. “The range of the weapons arrayed against us, the terror networks – these are no longer the first or second line of defense, the point of contact. This type of traditional fighting still exists, but the threats hatched against us from afar are such that we need to know how to be ready to deal with them directly – with the aid of international actors in the intelligence and technological fields. Combat battalions today are not just battalions in the literal, traditional sense, but they are also Iranian forces who are operating everywhere, and Libya, which is a huge weapons cache. And who knows what will happen with Syria and Iraq. We are examining all of these areas from an intelligence standpoint, and a new command will be required to address these issues and to develop operational ideas and, if the need arises, to command these depth missions.”

Will this really happen? Because there is a sense that many in Israel are fearful of such actions over the large number of potential casualties.

“Our day-to-day routine, and here I’m limited as to what I’m able to say, doesn’t mean that we aren’t doing anything. Besides, we are developing a combat doctrine out of the understanding that we will have to operate on a number of fronts, at great distances, all at the same time.

“Obviously we will make every effort to minimize casualties as much as possible, but this will not dictate whether or not we act because we just don’t have that luxury. In addition, the home front will be subject to an active, potent threat, so it would be proper for the army to take these risks.”

We sat down with Gantz at the height of the scandal which engulfed the deputy brigade commander, Lieutenant Colonel Shalom Eisner, who struck a Danish national during a protest in the Jordan Valley. Gantz received the results of a preliminary probe. After he was briefed on the final results of the investigation, he made the decision to remove Eisner from his post. The IDF chief determined that Eisner had failed to live up to his professional, moral, and military obligations that befit a commander.

Gantz believes the entire saga is not a reflection of Eisner as a person, but he is very disturbed not just by the incident but also by the fact that it took Eisner over 24 hours to report the incident. “This is a failure on the command level,” he said. “A professional failure is how your prepare for these kinds of incidents. A failure on the command level is how you perform during the incident, and an ethical failure is how you behave as a person and an officer.”

The gates of the West Point Military Academy bear the words “Duty, Honor, Country.” What is your motto for the army?

“I cannot be around officers who do not simultaneously bring with them these two qualities: determination and wisdom that befits a commander. A smart commander who is not determined won’t help me. A determined commander who isn’t smart or wise also doesn’t help me. And I am one of those commanders who demand both of these qualities.

“I demand that my commanders lead from the front because that is the only way they will understand what is going on in the battlefield, so that they can correctly hand out orders and decide what action to take. This is because I cannot possibly see what it is that they see. I’m dying to see it, but I don’t see it. And this is what our commanders need to understand, and I think that ultimately they understand this.”

“In this incident, there was an error, and determination on its own cannot solve this. One also needs wisdom. This is what separates a commander from the regular soldier. Otherwise, the commander and the soldier would be the same thing. He is there first and foremost as a fighter, that is true, but he is also a commander and he needs to bring both [of these qualities].

“I don’t send a logistics officer to break up demonstrations. I send the brigade commander, the deputy brigade commander, a battalion commander. He needs to know to bring both determination and wisdom that is becoming a commanding officer, and [Eisner] didn’t do this.”

Are you disturbed by the fact that this incident has been turned into a political issue where the Left has taken a position against the officer while the Right is automatically supportive of him?

“I judge people’s behavior, and not what it is that someone is trying to say about somebody else about this or that issue. In the complex world in which I live, there is just one solution, which is quite simple, and that is ‘truth.’ This is the only immunizing apparatus that I know of. I’ve been a soldier for 30 years, and I know that if you give people the truth as it is, they cannot argue with it. This is my way of immunizing myself, and it is the only way to survive in this complex world, and that is with the truth.”

Perhaps this is another symptom of societal problems and disagreements over religion, politics, and international intervention?

“This is a serious problem, and I will explain. On the Iranian issue, you will write whatever you write and the commentators will say what it is they know and a few former officials will talk, but the state will leave us to deal with it.

“On the other hand, when we are talking about the relations between the army and society, then everybody is suddenly an expert and everyone has something to say. Paradoxically, we have an opposite scenario. That means that issues which I deal with 20 percent of the time become issues that I deal with 80 percent of the time, and vice versa. And this is because everyone is suddenly an expert.

“Take, for example, the issue of how soldiers commute from their homes to the base. What is your story here? They kept us busy with this whole issue of train tickets for soldiers. The free tickets for soldiers initiative is a project that succeeded and it was introduced to aid the welfare of soldiers. Society likes to deal with things that it thinks it understand, while leaving us to deal with other things.”

In his year as army chief, Gantz has been forced to deal with incidents of discrimination against women as well as the “Yizkor” incident, events that once again raised questions about the role of religion in the IDF. It is a question that has become more urgent given the growing influence of national religious soldiers in combat units and the senior and junior officer corps.

“These are wonderful boys,” Gantz said. “They are patriotic, they are part of us, and I really don’t see this as a problem. I don’t look underneath soldiers’ helmets to see what’s there. I do think that the state needs to ask itself how it is dealing with issues of compulsory military service for everyone, which is a critical issue.”

“The citizens of the State of Israel need to give of themselves to the State of Israel, because the army has been, is, and needs to continue to be the first thing that people look at as an entity of volunteers, an entity of people performing a service, an entity that is seen as addressing the country’s needs. This is because our geopolitical environment is different than the one that the Swiss army chief of staff needs to deal with. He was in my office about six, seven months ago and he bragged to me how his defense budget increased because of the problems in the Middle East. I couldn’t believe what I was hearing.”

So what is the solution?

“Compulsory duty. Compulsory duty for all citizens of the State of Israel, no matter who they are. It’s not just military service, it’s obligatory service.”

You’re a reasonable guy. Does this have a chance of passing from a political standpoint?

“The state has to do this. We are half-the-people’s army, this is not okay, and this is not sustainable. You can wait another year or two, or you could make some shady, under-the-table agreement that will last three or four years, but this won’t really put off the decision for another day, nor will it solve the problem.

“We have no choice, we must decide to go for some kind of solution, one that is more reasonable and fairer. It’s a question of fairness, and I think fairness will be an issue of tremendous significance for Israeli society in the future.”

Last summer’s social protest pushed the IDF into a corner. On the one hand, it has to deal with a slew of defense tasks and challenges, with special emphasis on the Iranian issue and the revolutions sweeping the Middle East. On the other hand, it will have to cope with the need for cuts in the defense budget in order to free up budgets and resources for socioeconomic needs. Not only has Gantz been asked to make cuts and mull the suspension of training and a dwindling of supplies, but he has also found himself engaged in head-to-head clashes with Finance Ministry officials, and even the finance minister himself, who accused the army chief of failing to comprehend his subordinate status in relation to the civilian echelon.

“If there’s something that I understand well, it is the subordinate status of the army to the political echelon,” Gantz says. “I think that these statements were out of place, out of line, and incorrect. But this isn’t the important thing. It isn’t a personal dispute between me and the finance minister. The State of Israel has a prime minister and a government that has a responsibility, and I told the government that we will do whatever it decides we should do, and if it decides that we need to wage war by throwing stones, so be it, we will fight with stones.

“We will not stop discharging our mission because of this issue. We will simply inform you of the consequences. Sometimes it’s inconvenient for people to hear these things, so they make the accusations that they do.”

Is there no money?

“The key question is what the multi-year budget will look like. During one of my meetings with the prime minister, I told him that my first mission as a soldier from an operational standpoint was to provide security for Anwar Sadat when he arrived in Jerusalem to talk peace. Now I’m the chief of staff, and it is unclear to me who the next president of Egypt will be and what policies that country will take.

“Forty years have gone by, and we are approaching a situation in which I hope will be better, one in which there will be respect for civil rights, where the street will indeed have influence on the decision makers in other countries because this would be a pretty good prelude to democracy, where women’s rights will be such that a woman will not be beaten with sticks if she is caught driving, as we have seen in Saudi Arabia. All is well and good, let there be no more wars here.

“But why do I have a feeling that this is not what will happen? Why do I have the feeling that in Egypt a regime is coming to power that no matter what happens we will not be in as good a place as we were? Why do I get the feeling that Sinai is coming unhinged from a security standpoint? In fact, it is already unhinged. Why do I get the feeling that Syria, with or without Assad, will not be the same stable place, even if it was an unfriendly place before, and in the best case scenario it will be unstable but not hostile to us while in the worst case scenario, it will be both unstable and hostile?

“And why do I get the sense that Hezbollah is five times stronger than what it was during the Second Lebanon War? Why do I know that Gaza has 10,000 missiles, with more to come?

“I don’t know what is going to happen in Iraq, and I don’t know what is going to happen in Iran, and we have seen the value of stable regimes. In other words, we are living in a Middle East in which I believe the window of opportunity has closed, and we cannot afford to take risks regarding future developments.”

Does the treasury not understand this?

“I have no problem with whatever budget they decide upon, but it should be made perfectly clear: We will have a stripped-down army. In other words, we will have an untrained, ill-equipped army that is short on supplies and one that will not be fully prepared to carry out its missions. We cannot allow this to happen, and this has nothing to do with me personally.

“This is the most important organization that the state has from a security standpoint, and we are not in Switzerland. I don’t think that defense is the top priority in this country, because I think education is. Still, when I look at how we live our lives here, I cannot ignore this basic fact.”

The test of victory

Gantz is wont to speak in a low voice. His words are measured carefully, and his tone is calm. There are moments when he stops to think in order to make sure that his statements are accurate. At no point does he ever raise his voice, at least during our interview. Rare are the moments when he loses his cool. This is why he has often been accused of lacking sufficient assertiveness, and that he lacks sharpness from an operational standpoint. The few top generals who have followed him closely during his tenure and gained insight into the sensitive jobs he has undertaken throughout his career beg to differ with these statements. They claim that Gantz sanctifies deep thought and careful consideration, but he knows when to cut to the chase if necessary.

Still, his real test, the only one by which he will be measured, is victory, in single operations and, above all, in war. He believes that the army is still capable of gaining victory. “We will win wherever we find ourselves in action,” he said. “There’s no doubt about it.”

What constitutes victory?

“You need to differentiate between victory, which is a strategic term, and dealing the decisive blow in battle, which is an operative concept. The state will not win if we don’t deal the decisive blow, and we need to deal a number of decisive blows so that the state will win.”

Let’s be more specific. What constitutes a decisive blow in Gaza?

“We can conquer Gaza. It’s just a question of what price we have to pay on a national level. It’s not an issue of the number of casualties, because in war there are always casualties, but it’s a question of administering Gaza for an extended period of time. We are capable of bringing about a situation whereby the Gaza Strip will not want to continue the war. ‘Cast Lead’ established a new threshold of deterrence that was intact for a relatively limited time, but the atmosphere of that operation is still with us. If I take the Second Lebanon War, which was supposedly a less successful war, the strategic results of that war are very strong in terms of the deterrence established. So these are the philosophies and the strategies that we are promoting in order to make even more impressive gains in the future.”

And what constitutes a decisive blow against Iran?

“That is a much wider, and more strategic issue. It isn’t on the same plane as the Gaza and Lebanon cases, because it has more to do with… let’s call it strategic blows.”

From your vantage point, as an army general, one can assume that your point of view has changed. There was a time when you used tactical maps. Now, you look at the entire globe, right?

“To say I look at a globe would be a bit of a stretch, but you could see for yourselves. I have a tiny map in front of me, but when I want to be reminded of the proper proportions, I open up another screen on the computer (he clicks the mouse, and the screen affixed to the wall shows a much larger map which stretches from Greece in the West to Iran in the East). It’s important that we know how to develop general ideas, operative ideas, and even command certain missions. The way in which we perceive decisive blows and the way in which we perceive combat require us to work simultaneous on numerous fronts and at long distances.

Can we deal a decisive blow against Iran?

“I don’t think that we need to aim for a decisive blow. I think that we need to deal with Iran.”

And what of the terrorism in Sinai?

“When it comes to Sinai, we need to provide an operational response that will be predicated on intelligence-gathering capabilities as well as defensive capabilities while preserving, to the highest degree possible, our cooperation with Egypt in order to prevent the region from spinning out of control and to be ready for bad days ahead that I hope do not come.”

Do you think the solution for all of these fronts is for Israel to live underneath a ceiling that protects us from missiles?

“On a fundamental level, the State of Israel, particularly its large urban population centers, needs to live under a defensive ceiling. It is by no means hermetic, and it won’t provide the ultimate solution in the future. This defensive means is needed to allow the army to exhaust its offensive capabilities and its ability to deal a decisive blow.

“From a strategic standpoint, we cannot continue to ensure our existence here strictly from a defensive posture. Can my soccer team send all 11 players on offense and leave just one goalkeeper behind? No, this is impossible. I need to also have defensive players back there. But wars have always been decided by offensive campaigns.”

Gantz, makes no effort to conceal his optimism. When we asked him about those who wonder if the State of Israel will survive, his answers are emphatic.

“The people of Israel can be proud and confident, but they must also be sober-minded, because I don’t think that the environment in which we live is one devoid of challenges. But we need to be balanced and to know how to provide the appropriate solutions, with an eye toward history and not in a way that suggests hysteria.”

“We should remember from whence we started,” he said on Independence Day. “We should remember where we are now, and what a long way we have come. I really think that we have a lot to be proud of. I think that ultimately we should look at ourselves and say, ‘If we’ll be okay, then things will be okay.’”

Gantz points to two framed pictures that sit on the bookshelf behind his desk. One picture is that of David Ben-Gurion, and the other is a framed picture of a poem written by Ze’ev Jabotinsky. Next to the two pictures is a glass that is halfway filled with wine, which for him symbolizes what is really important.

“In the 1980s, my mother was lying in a hospital in Bonn, Germany,” he says. “She had just gone through a surgery that was just incredibly difficult, awful. She’s barely alive at this point. She puts a flower and this glass of wine on her. The hospital ward director comes by in the morning to see how Frau Gantz is doing. So she says to the director, ‘Listen, the surgery was difficult and all that, but I’m still alive, so I’m looking at the glass half-full.”

The doctor was a Palestinian who was born in Gaza, worked as a dishwasher in an Israeli hummus joint in order to save money for medical school, and ended up treating the mother of a battalion commander of the paratroopers who in 30 years would become the chief of staff.

What is the lesson here?

“The strategic reality around us keeps me quite preoccupied, but I know that I can’t really impact it, because I can’t set things straight in Egypt or Syria. I need to be ready for the outcomes in these places, and to propose solutions that will work toward coping with these kinds of events.

“But I’m also disturbed by the budget issue and by ensuring that the army is not stripped down, and that it will be able to continue to blossom and develop. These things which either do not depend on us or are insoluble still need a solution.

“The only thing I know for certain is that we are here. Can I say that I can sit in one room with a woman, an ultra-Orthodox man, a religious person, a rightist, and leftist, a Jew, and a non-Jew and say that this is one state? As officers in the IDF, it’s out of our hands. These aren’t questions that are dealt with in my work environment. But I do hope for a happy ending.”

US military drills Day One after strike on Iran, deploys F-22s to Gulf

April 28, 2012

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 28, 2012, 11:12 AM (GMT+02:00)

 

USAF F-22s deployed to Persian Gulf

US Navy, Air Force, ground, intelligence and special forces units based at home, in Europe and the Middle East, took part this week in a special exercise ordered by President Barack Obama to simulate reactions to a potential US-Israel strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, debkafile’s exclusive military and Washington sources report.

Sunday, April 22, the US also transferred a number of advanced stealth F-22 fighter bombers, believed to be from the 302nd Fighter Squadron 302, from the joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska to the Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates.
According to our sources, the F-22 jets will join the F-15s of the Massachusetts Air National Guard’s 104th Fighter Wing which were transferred to the Al Udeid base a month ago.

Their mission will be to destroy the Iranian air force and air defense batteries so as to clear the way for US and Israeli bombers to go into action against Iran’s nuclear sites and the strategic infrastructure of its army and Revolutionary Guards Corps.
This unprecedented US buildup of air might – supplementing the aircraft on the decks of the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Enterprise, to be joined by a third carrier as soon as the offensive gets underway – shows Tehran that the Obama administration is serious about using military means as extra pressure on Iran to give way in diplomatic negotiations – both with the six powers and with the US through clandestine channels.

Both moves took place as the United States and five other world powers prepares for the second round of talks with Iran scheduled for next month to rein in its nuclear program.
The comment Israel’s chief of staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz made to AP on April 26 about “other countries” having readied their armed forces for a potential strike “to keep Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons” referred to the deployment of the F-22 stealth jets. He did not name the other countries.

His comment was received in Washington as Israel’s strongest message till now that it will not be alone in attacking Iran but will have partners, presumably the US – and possibly also Britain, France, German, Holland or Italy.
At the end of the US exercise simulating Day One of this attack, debkafile reports that Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Lt. Gen. Martin Dempsey submitted to the White House three conclusions:
1.  Iran’s response to a military strike will be “measured,” both to limit the damage to the regime and to conserve military resources for a possible follow-up attack;

2.  The Iranians will go back to work on building a nuclear weapon within a short time;

3.  The destruction of core elements of its nuclear program is expected to change Iran’s attitude in negotiations, making it less cocky and more submissive to international demands.