WarSclerotic

‘Gov’t handling Iran threat, but … JPost – Diplomacy & Politics.

By JPOST.COM STAFF

04/03/2012 17:50

Netanyahu marks 3-year anniversary of his gov’t, saying Israel needs leadership that knows how to act on world stage.

By HERB KEINON

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu marked his government’s three-year anniversary on Tuesday, touting its handling of the Iranian nuclear threat, but admitting that the threat was not neutralized and Israel must continue to urge the international community to put increasing pressure on the Islamic Republic.

Netanyahu stated that his government had effectively dealt with unprecedented problems, such as the Iranian threat, “the Islamic revolution sweeping the area,” and the kind of world economic upheaval seen “once in a hundred years.”

In addition to the Iranian threat, the prime minister said that the biggest threats against Israel were rockets and missiles, the cyber threat, and borders.

The prime minister appeared to take a swipe at his potential challengers for the leadership of the country, stating that “he that cannot act on the world stage, cannot lead the State of Israel.”

He stated that his government had proven that ability and would continue to operate globally to increase the pressure on Iran.

Netanyahu also addressed reports that the Obama administration was purposefully leaking information to prevent an Israeli attack on Iran.

“The Obama administration told us publicly to talk less about the Iranian issue and I hope that others are also behaving thus,” Netanyahu stated.

“I hope so,” he added.

Israeli-US Air, Naval Forces Train for Energy War – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

IAF F-16

Israel news photo: Flash 90

Israeli, Greek and U.S. forces are in the midst of a drill in preparation for a possible war over Israel’s huge off-shore gas discoveries, which also may contain commercializable oil. Lebanon and Hizbullah have claimed the fields are in Lebanese territory and that they will “defend” the area against drilling by Israel.

The week-long drill is simulating air-to-air combat and anti-submarine warfare and is taking place off the coast of Turkey, possibly signaling it not to interfere with Israeli energy operations in the Mediterranean Sea. The “enemy” forces will be similar to those of the Turkish air force, according to the Defencenet.gr website.

Joint exercises also will take place off the coast of Cyprus and at the port in Haifa, with the participation of the famed U.S. Sixth Fleet.

The United States and Israel also are preparing for a massive “Austere Challenge” exercise this summer involving thousands of soldiers from both countries.

Last week, a one-day drill included Israeli soldiers operating the Arrow, the Patriot, Hawk, Stinger, and Iron Dome batteries defense systems, according to DefenseProfessionals.com.

“The ability of the formation to bring together all the defense systems is amazing”, said U.S. Army Col. Stephen Richmond, head of the 10th Army Air and Missile Defense Command. “I’m very impressed with the capabilities presented here,” he was quoted as saying.

Russia is keeping a wary eye on the American-Israeli exercises and is staging its own war drill in a Syrian port, according to DEBKAfile. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned this week against a pre-emptive strike, which he said would violate international law.

A Russian guided missile destroyer reportedly sailed to the Syrian port of Tartus for an exercise with what DEBKAfile said is three-fold message for the United States that Moscow is supplying Syrian President Bashar Assad with defense systems, that the Russian and Iranian support of Assad will continue and that the deployment of the warship illustrates Moscow’s ability for a rapid response to foreign maneuvers.

UN peacekeeping advance team due in Syria … JPost – Middle East.

By REUTERS

04/03/2012 15:21

Part of Annan plan would see over 200 unarmed UN peacekeepers monitor a ceasefire; Western diplomats are skeptical Assad assault will stop.

ByAli Hashisho / Reuters

GENEVA – An advance team from the UN peacekeeping department is expected in Damascus within 48 hours to discuss deployment of observers to monitor a ceasefire in Syria, the spokesman for international mediator Kofi Annan said on Tuesday.

“A DPKO (Department of Peacekeeping Operations) planning mission should be arriving in Damascus within 48 hours,” spokesman Ahmad Fawzi told Reuters in Geneva.

As part of the six-part peace plan put forward by Annan to halt the fighting, UN peacekeepers are planning for a ceasefire monitoring mission that would have 200 to 250 unarmed observers. It would require a Security Council resolution.

Syria has pledged to withdraw all military units from towns by April 10 to pave the way for a ceasefire with rebels two days later, though Western envoys were skeptical on Monday about Damascus’ intent to halt its year-long assault on opponents.

Annan, joint special envoy of the United Nations and Arab League who is based in Geneva, briefed the Security Council on the deadline by videolink on Monday.

“Mr. Annan is grateful for the Russian and Chinese support and the unity that the Security Council again has shown in backing his plan and ensuring its implementation,” Fawzi said.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 3, 2012, 10:09 AM (GMT+02:00)

On guard at the Russian missile destroyer Smetliviy

Not 24 hours after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that a pre-emptive strike (by the US and/or Israel) would violate international law, Moscow put muscle into his warning: Tuesday, April 3, the Russian guided missile destroyer Smetliviy arrived  in the Syrian port of Tartus from its Black Sea base for a naval exercise. The warship’s support group is on the way.

debkafile’s military sources report that the Russian flotilla carried a threefold message for Washington:
1.  The Russian-Iranian strategy of propping up the Assad regime which has brought the Syrian ruler close to victory over his foes, will continue: Diplomacy will be propelled by military impetus.
2.  Russia is providing the Assad regime with defense systems capable of repelling foreign military intervention.
3.  Consigning the Smetliviy warship to Syria illustrates Moscow’s new rapid response policy: Russia is launching a naval exercise in the eastern Mediterranean to match the “Noble Dina” air and naval maneuver the US, Israel and Greece are conducting across a broad expanse of sea between Crete and the Israeli bases at Haifa and Ashdod.
Israeli warships and air force jets may therefore find themselves not just operating alongside US naval and aircraft but confronted suddenly by one of the largest destroyers in the Russian fleet (NATO-coded ASW-submarine warfare), whose decks are the launching base for anti-air, anti-ship and anti-submarine missiles.
The Smetliviy’s support group, believed to be a supply vessel and a submarine, passed through the Bosporus Saturday, March 31 on their way to Tartus.
Monday, April 2, debkafile reported: Russia and Iran set to counter US/Israeli strike against Iran. US-led Mediterranean naval drill

Tom Allon: Is This Threat Different From All Other Threats?.

When my parents were teenagers in Eastern Europe, the steady drumbeat of Jewish persecution in Europe was making its way to their hometowns.

“Why didn’t your family flee before the Nazis came?” I often asked them when I was a youngster in the 1960s, trying to understand the passivity and ultimate tragedy of their family’s decision.

My parents lost their parents, their brothers and sisters, and many other relatives to the Nazi onslaught. My parents were fortunate survivors, who came to America to start life anew. But some of their surviving relatives went to Israel to start their lives over in the new land of milk and honey.

As we approach Passover this week, it is a fitting time to put today’s existential threat from Iran into a broader historical context. Let’s not forget that Iran is not just a threat to Israel, but the whole world (including specifically the U.S.) as we have seen its ability to arm proxy terrorist organizations in recent years.

Jews have been vilified and persecuted through the ages, dating back to the long period of bondage in Egypt. Some lowlights in history include the evil Haman and his plot to kill the Jews of Persia (whose failure was celebrated last month on Purim), the Spanish Inquisition, the Russian pogroms, and the most evil and unthinkable period, the Holocaust of the 1940s, which killed six million Jews, and dozens of my immediate family.

Out of the ashes of Europe, the State of Israel arose phoenix-like in 1948 as a safe haven to Jews not just in the Middle East, but worldwide. As my father often pointed out to me as a child: “As long as we have Israel, we have a place to flee in case anti-Semitism rears its ugly head again.”

To my father and his generation of Holocaust survivors, Israel represented the only vindication for the horrors they suffered; any threat to Israel’s existence, and there have been many in the last 64 years, was a threat to all of world Jewry.

I am about to go to Israel for Passover with two of my children. I do so with the full knowledge that sitting not far from Israel’s borders is a country, Iran, whose leaders have vowed to destroy it if it could.

Israel has been warning the world about Iran for 15 years and some countries have just recently woken up to this threat and imposed sanctions that may be too little, too late.

This is not the first time that Israel’s many foes have vowed to wipe it off the map and out of existence. First, came the 1948 War of Independence, then the 1956 Suez conflict, the 1967 Six-Day War, the 1973 October War and the Intifada of the 1990s. All these conflicts proved that Israel is basically a good country in a hostile neighborhood, as my father liked to characterize it.

In 1981, the summer after my freshman year in college, I went to Israel for the summer as a young idealist seeking a simpler life on a kibbutz. While there, in June, Israel surgically attacked Iraq’s nuclear power plant and destroyed it without any lives being lost.

As I watched President Ronald Reagan on television that night wag his finger at Israel for this attack, I heard the wise words of my Israeli aunt say to me: “The Americans are angry with us now, but in 10 years they will thank us.”

She was prophetic. A decade later, the Gulf War would have turned out differently, of course, if Saddam Hussein had a nuclear weapon.

A few years ago, Israel pulled off another tactical strike to prevent Syria from getting a nuclear weapon. The instability in that country today could be much worse if President Assad had nuclear capabilities.

The new existential threat to Israel is Iran’s seeming rush to develop a nuclear weapon. Israel soon may be at the point where not preemptively destroying Iran’s capabilities could endanger its future.

Sometimes, the events of recent history can lead to the wrong lessons. America’s rush to attack Iraq over WMDs that didn’t exist has made many wary of a rush to presume nuclear weapons are being created. The failed intelligence of the Bush administration that led to the attack in Iraq has led some to question Israel and America’s presumption that Iran is close to nuclear weapon capabilities.

This complex issue does not necessarily have a right or wrong answer. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, an old-school politician whose main mission is to preserve Israel’s existence and keep his citizens safe, has a very difficult decision to make. The upcoming American election this November may affect the Israeli timetable for addressing this. No one can actually know how heavy the crown weighs on Netanyahu’s head.

This Friday, I will be sitting at a seder in Tel Aviv, celebrating an exodus from Egypt thousands of years ago that has inspired generations of Jews to appreciate their freedom. I will ask my Israeli relatives about the Iranian dilemma as well as the occupation of the West Bank. I will travel across the country and listen to divergent points of view about where Israel should go from here.

But most of all, I will pray at the Western Wall, that the Iranian threat is different from all other threats. That in the coming year, through strong sanctions and reason, this threat will dissipate and not require a military strike from Israel.

But if this strategy does not work, I will hear my late father’s words about the Holocaust reverberate in my head: “Never again.”

Tom Allon is a N.Y. Liberal Party and Democratic candidate for mayor of New York City in 2013.

Obama Administration: Existential Threat to Israel | Israel Right Side News.

Four senior American diplomats — most likely in the State Department — as well as senior intelligence officers appear to have leaked a key military relationship between Azerbaijan and Israel.

RED ALERT: Former Marine Strike Planner on Obama’s Azerbaijan Leak: “Start viewing this administration as an existential threat to Israel”

A highly knowledgeable Democratic friend emails Ron Ben-Yishai’s YnetNews report “US thwarting Israeli strike on Iran.” The report asserts that the Obama administration is leaking information to the media in order to avert an Israeli strike in Iran. Ben-Yishai observes that in recent weeks the administration has “shifted from persuasion efforts vis-à-vis decision-makers and Israel’s public opinion to a practical, targeted assassination of potential Israeli operations in Iran.” My friend comments succinctly on the report: “Wow. Ron Ben-Yishai is considered to be one of the most serious Israeli defense correspondents.”

Ben-Yishai gives few examples of the Obama administration’s efforts to thwart an Israeli strike on Iran, but the news this week provides what seems to be a case study supporting his thesis. Foreign Policy reports that, according to “four senior diplomats and military intelligence officers,” Azerbaijan has granted the Israelis access to airbases in that country. Such access would dramatically mitigate the difficulty of an Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

This leak destroyed any capability of a surprise attack by Israel using these bases. And it came from Obama administration officials.

“Bill”, a former Marine Corps strike planner, weighed in on the implications of this leak Friday on The Mark Levin Show. Read every word.

I just want to comment on this revelation by the State Department regarding this Israel-Azerbaijan connection. A few years ago, I was writing an article and studying how Israel might go about attacking Iran with the assets we knew they had…

I’ve got experience as a Marine F-4 Phantom Radar Interceptor Officer. I’ve planned strike missions. I’ve got a thousand hours in the Phantom. So I’m familiar with the problems strike planners have in attacking a target or multiple targets like Iran. And as I looked at the map, I thought: ‘Boy, oh, boy, if the Israelis had an alliance with Azerbaijan, that would be the perfect place to launch a strike.

They’ve got this beautiful, 10,000-foot concrete runway in Baku. You take off, you come right out over the Caspian Sea. The pilots flip on their radar altimeters, drop down 25-feet off the deck, and they just race in a straight line.

They pop up over some hills, and they’re in Tehran before the Iranians even know what hit them. They could then go hit the other targets. It reduces the distance for this strike by, oh, six, seven hundred miles. It might alleviate the need for tankers. Or, if they do need tanker support, you could put them over the Caspian Sea…

…The beauty of Baku is that the Caspian Sea is right at the end of the runway. It’s a straight shot, maybe 300 miles, from that base to Tehran. A good radar altimeter will get an F-4, F-16, F-15 strike fighter maybe 25 feet off the water. Going in at that altitude, you’re not going to be picked up by radar.

But there’s something even more important here. The Iranians are not expecting an attack from the north. Now, with the revelation of this relationship, they are. And that has a lot of implications beyond the tactical.

Think of it this way. Prior to this revelation, the Iranians — although they noticed some connections between Israel and Azerbaijan — didn’t know how deep that connection was.

Now the Iranians can start bullying the Azerbaijanis. They can send a diplomat up to Baku and say, basically, ‘if any Israeli plane hits us from the north, when we get our nuke, we are going to test it on Baku. Of course that will all happen behind the scenes, but the threat will be made.

Now, I want you to consider this: there are many ways to attack Iran. You can go for the nuke sites. Or you can go for a decapitation strike. A decapitation strike is a much easier operation if you’re coming from Azerbaijan.

Think of it this way: every once in a while, the Iranians have a little get-together. They bring all of the Mullahs together in one place... Why not? They’d be doing us and the world a tremendous favor if they did that.

And it’s not going to happen now.

I can guarantee that all of those new Soviet anti-aircraft missiles that the Iranians bought are all going up north now, pointed and waiting for something there. In fact, they’ll probably put radars on the Caspian from the mountaintops there, just to see if there’s anything come up off the water.

Strategic, tactical surprise: gone.

You have to ask for the motivation behind the leak. I mean, if the Israelis can do this operation, it’s to our benefit! From a diplomatic standpoint, if you wanted to tell the Iranians that the Israelis did this, it’s without our permission. And then try to butter up the Iranians after the strike, so they don’t close the Strait of Hormuz, that’s one thing.

But giving away all of the secrets of an ally? When you’re doing that, you have to ask whether we still have Israel as an ally. We are not acting like an ally. In fact, if you ask me, based on the amount of time I expect the Israelis put in this relationship with Azerbaijan, I would start viewing this administration as an existential threat to Israel.

This administration is not going to do anything to stop the Iranian terror state from acquiring nuclear weapons. They are actively working against America’s closest allies to prevent a strike against Iran. They are, under Obama’s orders, leaking highly classified information to America’s enemies through the media.

Who leaked this information? And when are we going to prosecute them?

Where is the House Foreign Affairs Committee? Do we still have one?

I urge you to contact Chairman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen at (202) 225-5021 and ask the committee what it is doing to find the sources of these leaks.

The Cutting Edge News.

Michele Bachman

As millions around the world begin to celebrate the feast of Passover at sundown on Friday, April 6, it is important to remember why this celebration exemplifies God’s mercy on His people. When the children of Israel cried out to the Lord because of their great suffering at the hands of the Egyptians, we know “God looked upon the children of Israel, and God acknowledged them (Exodus 2:25).”God responded with 10 plagues sent to do unimaginable damage on Egypt in order to deliver His people. When the first nine plagues did not soften the heart of Pharaoh, the Lord sent his tenth and final plague: the slaughter of the first-born males in each family. By believing and obeying specific instructions from the Lord, the Israelites were spared this horrific plague and ultimately the destruction led to their freedom from Egyptian tyranny. God foretold the liberation of the children of Israel when he told Moses “I am the Lord; I will bring you out from under the burdens of the Egyptians, I will rescue you from their bondage (Exodus 6:6).”

These promises to the ancient Israelites were near to my heart as I grew up, which is why I took the first opportunity to go to Israel when I was a young woman. The day after I graduated from high school in 1974, I took a flight to Israel. I went to work for the summer on Kibbutz Be’eri near Beer Sheva. Aside from the beauty of the country and deep cultural and spiritual appreciation of the Jewish people, the experience gave me a clear realization: Israel is under a constant external threat. During my time, we worked on the kibbutz from four in the morning until noon, and at all times we were accompanied by soldiers carrying machine guns. While we were working, they were making sure there were no land mines in the fields. As a recent high school graduate, I knew very little of the complex geopolitical threat that Israel faced from all sides of its borders. Today, Israel still faces those threats and more. For this reason, the United States must declare, in no uncertain terms, that it is our policy to utilize all military strength to support and defend our strongest ally in the Middle East, Israel.

On March 4 of this year, President Obama made the case that diplomatic sanctions are working in Iran. His words, “Now is the time to let our increased pressure sink in, and to sustain the broad international coalition we have built,”point to the need to let diplomacy take its course. These are powerful words and I certainly commend both the Bush Administration and the Obama Administration for the increasing economic sanctions on Iran. However, has any evidence surfaced that these sanctions are hindering the development of a nuclear weapon? If Iran had years instead of months, sanctions would certainly be advisable under the circumstances. Unfortunately, report after report seems to lend credence to the fact that Iran is growing dangerously close to having nuclear capability.Furthermore, there are those that wrongly believe that Iran can be contained or that Iran is strictly Israel’s problem. Make no mistake; a nuclear Iran threatens the safety and security of a region that directly affects the interests of the United States. If Iran were to obtain a nuclear weapon, many surrounding Arab states, including Saudi Arabia and Jordan, will most likely do everything in their power to obtain one that begins a deadly nuclear arms race. Additionally, Iran has made clear through their intrusion into our own hemisphere that they will not only provide support to rogue nations south of our border, they could also provide secrets of nuclear capability. Just imagine the devastation of a nuclear Cuba or Venezuela.

To Israel, the threat is real and very close. Just over 950 miles away from Jerusalem (roughly the distance by air from Washington D.C. to Miami) is Tehran and their fanatical leadership. The chilling escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran leaves the United States with but two choices: stand with our long time democratic ally or marginalize their position leaving them even more vulnerable to attack. I write this not to express the obvious, but to urge the American public to stand up and demand that our elected officials clearly explain their policies on stopping a nuclear Iran.

The President mentioned “too much loose talk of war”in his March 4 speech. I recognize some may wrongly see this as a call for military action against Iran. Nothing could be further from the truth. Military action should only be utilized when all diplomatic means have been exhausted. However, even with rapid implementation of sanctions on every aspect of the Iranian economy, I am concerned that Iran has more than enough capabilities to not only complete a nuclear weapon, but to use it, if necessary.

In the 38 years since I worked in Israel, I have been privileged to visit the country many times. I always return with a stronger reality and greater concern for Israel’s safety and security. However, having returned just two weeks ago from an House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence trip to the country, and having met privately with numerous Israeli leaders including Prime Minister Netanyahu, the dangers our great friend Israel faces today are more acute and more serious than ever.

Rep. Michele Bachman represents a Minnesota district in thre House of Representatives.

Obama administration blames Israel for high oil prices – National Finance Examiner | Examiner.com.

‘Ministers told 300, at most, wo… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

(This is supposed to comfort us ? ! – JW )

By JPOST.COM STAFF

04/03/2012 02:49

Security cabinet briefed on worst-case scenario in potential war with Iran, Channel 10 reports; experts estimate relatively low number of Israeli casualties from thousands of missiles launched from multiple fronts.

By REUTERS/Morteza Nikoubazl

In the event of an Iranian attack on Israel, less than 300 people would be killed during three weeks of non-stop fighting on multiple fronts, according to estimates delivered to the security cabinet in a briefing, Channel 10 reported on Monday.

According to the estimates, described as a worst-case scenario, thousands of missiles would be launched toward Israel from Lebanon, Syria and Gaza as part of the Iranian attack. The scenario took into account Israel’s defenses as of 2012, with the Iron Dome rocket-defense system not yet at its full deployment.

Missiles would also be launched at Israel from Iran, according to defense experts briefing the ministers, however, they added, Tehran’s conventional missile capabilities are limited.

The estimates echoed comments Defense Minister Ehud Barak made last year about a potential war with Iran. Jerusalem does not want war, he said in an interview with Israel Radio in November, but even if it is drawn into a war against its will, fears of mass casualties are unfounded. “There’s no chance in such a situation for 500,000 killed, not 5,000 or even 500 killed.”

Despite Barak’s assurances of relatively low casualties in a war with Iran, Kadima MK Ze’ev Bielski warned in February that Israel’s civil defenses are not ready to protect the population in a missile war.

Almost one in four Israelis lack access to bomb shelters, whether communal or reinforced rooms in private homes, Bielski, chairman of a parliamentary panel on  home defense preparations stated.

“Are we prepared for a war? No,” he said. “Things are moving too slowly and we are wasting very precious time.”

Such shelters could be vital if Israel were to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and Tehran struck back, either directly or through its allies on Israel’s borders.

Israel says 100,000 rockets and missiles are pointed at it, many of these held by Syria, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Hamas, although they may decide to sit out any war between Israel and Iran.

The Civil Defense Ministry, which was set up after Israel suffered thousands of rocket strikes in the 2006 Lebanon war, confirmed Bielski’s data while seeking to play down his alarm.

“Our position remains that if everyone does what they are expected to do during an emergency, the situation will be tenable,” one ministry official said.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Israel Hayom | War of perceptions.