WarSclerotic

Israel will strike Iran before November.

piero scaruffi

Posted: Mar 24, 2012

piero scaruffi is an author, cultural historian and blogger who has written extensively about a wealth of topics, ranging from cognitive science to music.

Report: Iran planned to bomb Israeli ship in Suez Canal – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Egyptian paper Al-Ahram reports that two Egyptian citizens admitted they received instructions from Iranian agents to attack an Israeli ship, in exchange for 50 million Egyptian pounds.

By Avi Issacharoff

Iran had planned to bomb an Israeli ship while it crossed the Suez Canal, the prosecution in Egypt’s state security court said, the Egyptian newspaper Al-Ahram reported on Saturday.

According to the report, two Egyptians who were recently arrested admitted that they had received instructions from Iranian agents to plan an attack on an Israeli ship in the Suez Canal. Iran reportedly offered the two men 50 million Egyptian pounds to carry out the act.

	The Suez Canal.
	Photo by: Nir Kafri

In the past, Hezbollah terror cells that planned terror attacks, including in the Suez Canal, were found in Egypt. Moreover, Israeli officials have recently warned that Iran is setting up terror infrastructure on Egyptian soil to ready the ground for an operation.

Haaretz reported last week that a high-ranking official in Jerusalem said that Iranian military experts have been active in Sinai and the Gaza Strip.

Several terror groups are now at large in Sinai, the source explained: local Bedouin, who are adopting the ideology of the Global Jihad; groups supported by Iran, who are trying to recruit and train militants not only in Sinai but throughout Egypt; and Palestinian organizations. Joining them are Global Jihad militants from Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen and Saudi Arabia, said the official, adding that Israel and Egypt have a common interest in combating these terrorist elements.

He explained that “many Palestinian organizations use the Sinai peninsula as a convenient area for activity,” and added that Libya has meanwhile been transformed into a huge arms depot, from which weapons are transferred to Egypt and then the Gaza Strip.

Jeffrey Goldberg Replies on Israel, Iran, and ‘Bluffing’, Round 2 – James Fallows – International – The Atlantic.

Mar 23 2012, 9:45 PM ET

This follows our first round of Q-and-A exchange, and my second-round question earlier today. Jeffrey Goldberg replies, in a message sent on early Friday afternoon but that I saw (while on the road) only now. This is it for a while, but there is a lot to digest here.
___
Dear Jim,
That’s quite a lot of writing from a Tasmanian truck stop. Imagine what you achieve if you were parked at an American truck stop. Or an Iranian truck stop, for that matter.

There’s a lot to unpack here, so I won’t, though I agree with most of what you’ve written. Let me try briefly to answer the crucial question about Israel’s two principal leaders, Benjamin Netanyahu and his defense minister, Ehud Barak: “What version of reality are they seeing that lets them think this way?”

By “this way,” you mean, of course, the thought that a preemptive strike on Natanz and other Iranian nuclear facilities will a) work in some meaningful way; b) protect Israel in the long-term, or medium-term, at least; c) not cause a regional war; d) not cause blowback against Israel’s foremost ally, the U.S.; e) not cause catastrophic death-by-counterstrike in Israel.

Let me start with a), which slides into b). When the Israelis attacked the Osirak reactor in Iraq in 1981, they said they hoped to delay Iraq’s nuclear program by a year. In fact, it stopped forever (though it’s not clear if the Israeli strike was the principal reason why — though it certainly didn’t hurt). I mention this only to note that Israeli leaders privately say they’d be happy to buy a year. But: They think they’ll buy more than a year. They have drilled on this for years (and according to American military sources, they’ve drilled successfully on this) and they believe they can set back the Iranian program for several years. Moreover, they are somewhat convinced — and I am most definitely not — that an attack could set in motion an uprising against the regime. (I tend to think that this is the weakest best-case scenario of all, because I assume that the regime would use an Israeli strike as an excuse to come down hard on every semi-dissident not already in jail, and I assume many Iranians won’t be happy with an Israeli strike, even those who are unhappy with the regime.) The Israeli leaders believe that every year they buy against the Iranian program is another year that would allow the regime to collapse. I, too, believe it will collapse. It’s the “when” that’s the problem.

As to c), the Israeli leaders believe that — and this is obvious — the Arabs will quietly applaud the Israeli strike, and certainly, in the event of a technically successful strike, not line up with Iran (quite the opposite — Persian Gulf officials have told me compromise with Israel on other matters is at least slightly more likely if Iran is neutralized as a threat). They also believe, and this makes a certain amount of sense, that the Iranians may choose to cover-up a strike, or partially cover-up a strike, which is to say the following. Many facilities are not located in the center of cities (though one very important one is in Tehran). The attack will happen on a moonless night. The Iranians will have some ability to control what their own people hear about the strikes, and of course they will control access to these sites. They may choose, this line of thinking goes, to hush-up the strike, in the manner of the Syrians after the Israeli strike in 2007, or at most announce that the Zionists unsuccessfully attempted to strike at their facilities, and then fire a few missiles at Tel Aviv. Again, this seems to me to be a plausible scenario, but not likely.  But you asked me how the political echelon was thinking, and this is what they’re thinking (the army, I’m led to believe, is planning for a worst-case scenario).

On d), the Israelis actually believe that the Iranian regime is semi-rational, if not reasonable (the argument I heard from hardliners is that Hitler pursued an unreasonable goal, the murder of all Jews, in a rational way). The Iranian leadership is interested in its own survival. If Israel strikes Iran, the regime will believe that America had a direct hand in the attack. But Iranian leaders will also think hard about lashing out directly against America, because they know that America can actually bring about an end of the regime if it chose to, through a punishing bombardment that destroys Iran’s military infrastructure. So I think the Israeli leadership is counting on a rational, regime-protecting response from the ayatollahs. And one more thing: Not to overstate it, but some Israelis in leadership positions believe that they would actually be helping the U.S. by neutralizing an Iranian threat. Again, maybe, but certainly not something a prudent person would bank on.

As to e), the threat of a deadly counterstrike, Ehud Barak is on record saying that he thinks Israeli casualties in a combined Iranian/Hezbollah missile strike might top 500, or hit the low 1000s, but not be devastating. I find this aspect of the conversation Strangelovian. But the truth is, Israel has fairly good missile defenses, and its Air Force could handle Hezbollah in Lebanon. And Iran’s missile force is not overwhelming.

But (and here’s the key point): It doesn’t matter. Not much of the preceding conversation matters. What people don’t understand is that Netanyahu and many other Israelis view the Iranian regime, which is committed ideologically to Israel’s destruction and seems to be seeking a weapon of mass destruction, as an extinction-level threat. The entire ethos of Israel is: “In every generation, someone rises up who wants to murder the Jewish people, but this time, we’re not going down without a fight.” That’s in the DNA of the military and the political leadership. I asked President Obama if he thought Israeli leaders had overlearned the lessons of the Holocaust. He reminded them, through the interview, that they were running a modern state which has a need for a reality-based foreign policy, but he also acknowledged the awesome power of history to shape a worldview, and he treated that history very respectfully. This is a roundabout way of saying that if Israeli leaders see on the horizon an eliminationist anti-Semite who may be moving to acquire a nuclear weapon, they will try to stop him. This is why I think they are not bluffing. The problem with much of the analysis of Israel’s actions in this area is in the mirror-imaging: Many people outside Israel wonder why the country would take the military, political and diplomatic risks associated with attacking Iran’s nuclear program. But what they don’t remember is that the worst thing, from Israel’s perspective, has already happened: The murder, 70 years ago, of one out of every three Jews on the planet.

By the way, just so we’re clear, I think this is a precipitous way to think, and I think very definitively that 2012 isn’t 1938, and not only because of the existence of a nuclear-armed Jewish state. But I certainly understand the mentality.

I hope this is helpful.

Best,
Jeff

James Fallows – James Fallows is a national correspondent for The Atlantic and has written for the magazine since the late 1970s. He has reported extensively from outside the United States, and once worked as President Carter’s chief speechwriter. His latest book, China Airborne, will be published in May.

Iran Set To Exploit Lefty Israel Protests – NYPOST.com.

By BENNY AVNI

Last Updated: 11:48 PM, March 23, 2012

Posted: 11:22 PM, March 23, 2012

Iran helping Assad to put down protests, o… JPost – Middle East.

By REUTERS/Shaam News Network/Handout

Time to consider an Iran with the bomb | UTSanDiego.com.

(The “appeasement” argument. – JW )

Al-Ahram Weekly | Opinion | When the time is right, Israel will bomb Iran.

The statement by one of our presidential hopefuls, former minister Mahmoud El-Sherif, was quite remarkable. He said Israel “will not dare to” attack Iran because the latter is likely to retaliate with long-range missiles. El-Sherif may be a man of impeccable manners and his experience in healthcare and rural development is not to be belittled, but as an expert in strategic matters he is on thin ice.

Someone else, with comparable knowledge of such matters, opined that Israel could not attack Iran because the US wouldn’t allow it, and because Russia and China are against it. Others believe that Obama cannot address a regional nuisance in an election year, that he is too busy bringing back troops to send them out again, etc.

Speculation is easy, but speculation based on half- truths could be a dangerous thing. Iraq was once invaded because of allegations about its nuclear programme, so one must weigh all the available facts before forecasting the future.

Israel destroyed an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981 and a Syrian one in 2007. In the latter case, Israel initially pressed the US to wage the strike on its behalf, but George W Bush, reluctant to open another battlefront, demurred. The Israelis waged the attack in secret, kept quiet about it for a while, and then leaked the news to embarrass the Syrians, who only then went complaining to the UN Security Council.

There is a pattern there. Perhaps you’d think that Iran is different from Iraq and Syria, which is in many ways true. But the same rule applies: Israel and the US — and many countries in the region — are dead set against Tehran owning nuclear bombs.

So will Israel attack Iran?

It all depends on whether the time is right and on how real is the threat of Iran making a bomb. The tipping point may be reached, I would say, if Iran decides to move its nuclear facilities to secure areas, as in the mountainous parts of the country where a missile strike could become useless. If the Iranians show any sign of moving in this direction, then the possibility of a strike is not to be ruled out.

At this point, let’s consider the difference between the US and Israeli approach to long distance warfare. In the US case, the tendency is to rely on the Air Force and missile strikes, and in some cases — such as Serbia and Iraq — to throw in a bit of regime change while they’re at it.

Israel is different. Lacking the juggernaut abilities of the US military, the Israelis are likely to go for selected “nodes” in the Iranian nuclear system. Israeli planes, flying stealthily over Syria then getting refuelled in northern Iraq, should be able to perform such a task with a reasonable chance of success.

Israel is not going to try to eliminate the entire Iranian nuclear programme, but to cause it a debilitating setback, thus humiliating Tehran and confronting it with difficult choices.

Iran may decide to fire missiles on Israel, where they may be blocked by Israel’s anti-missile systems, including the Iron Dome and Arrow (recently quite successful against rocket attacks from Gaza). Such attacks would give the Israelis an excuse to retaliate with much more accurate missiles. And if any Israeli civilians are hurt in Iranian attacks, Israeli will make sure that Iran gets a taste of its own medicine.

Iran’s other option is to unleash its allies against Israel. But which allies? The Syrian regime, fighting for its own life, can be hardly persuaded to go picking on the Israelis. And Hizbullah, however tempted, may not want to expose itself to the wrath of the international community in case it triggered hostilities in South Lebanon.

Closing the Strait of Hormuz seems to be the only course of action left to Iran, along with attempts to destabilise selected Gulf States. This is easier said than done, considering that the subsequent rise in oil prices will most likely rally the international community against Tehran.

In conclusion, one cannot to rule out an Israeli strike on Iran. Just as it did in the case of Iraq and Iran, Israel may once again choose to go down this road. I am not saying that this is going to happen tomorrow. So long as the tipping point is not reached, the Israelis may refrain from striking at Iran.

Meanwhile, Tehran will have to cope with the consequences of stricter sanctions. International isolation is not a something that the Iranians can afford to snub for long. Even countries that are opposed to a military action against Iran are prone to decreasing their oil imports from that country. Iran is not exactly free to do what it pleases, and Israel is not as incapable of action as some commentators would have us think.

In today’s Middle East, never say never.

Yaalon: Iran World’s Number One Threat – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Moshe “Bogie” Yaalon

Reuters

Vice Premier and Minister of Strategic Affairs Moshe Yaalon said Thursday that Iran’s nuclear program is the leading global security threat.

“The main threat to regional and world stability comes from Tehran and the Iranian regime.” Yaalon stressed during the visit referred to in high school in Kiryat Haim.

“Imagine what it would do upon achieving such capability,” Yaalon said, adding “The nuclear umbrella will not just open against us, but against the United States.”

“What if they put a dirty bomb in Manhattan, Los Angeles, or the Port of Haifa? This could come to pass if Iran obtains military nuclear capability. The whole world understands this today – and in recent months it has risen to the top of the global agnda.

“Given that everyone agrees we should stop [Iran’s] nuclear program, we must convey our determination to impose sanctions backed up by a strong and credible military threat. If Iran feels the genuine pressure of a threat, it will act rationally. When you threaten their survival, they become irrational,” Yaalon said.

However, Yaalon was highly critical of what he described as the West’s “hesitancy” in dealing with Tehran.

“On the one hand the West has levied sanctions, which is good,” Yaalon said. “But, on the other hand, the West hesitates because they worry over rising oil prices. Iranians call this fear and manipulate them, threatening a crisis in the Straits of Hormuz – threatening a sharp rise in prices fuel.”

As a result the West just “wants to intensify sanctions rather than strike and see gas prices rise. It is better to pay more for gasoline now than when Iran becomes a nuclear power and can directly control oil prices,” he said.

As for the military option, Yaalon said “the West wants to avoid a confrontation and we must confront them about it. The military option is a last resort, but we must make it clear the threat is serious. If no one else will act, we have no choice but to do it ourselves.”

“It does not matter whether we attack or coalition forces led by the US attack, there is no doubt that the Iranians will strike at Israel either way,” he added.

Syria Crisis: Fierce Clashes Across Country.

In this picture taken on Tuesday March 20, 2012, a destroyed Syrian army tank which was attacked during clashes between the Syrian government forces and the Syrian rebels, in Rastan area in Homs province, central Syria. (AP Photo)

BEIRUT — Syrian government forces fired machine guns and mortars Friday in fierce clashes with army defectors in a town near the Turkish border, an activist group reported, as European Union foreign ministers imposed sanctions on the wife and three other close relatives of President Bashar Assad.

Eight government ministers will also be targeted in the latest round of sanctions aimed at stopping the violent crackdown on the Syrian opposition, several officials said. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a decision that will be announced later Friday.

The EU has imposed 12 previous rounds of sanctions against the Syrian regime but the crackdown has only intensified.

Asma Assad, 36, the president’s wife, was born in London, spent much of her life there, and has British citizenship. Britain’s Home Office said that a British citizen subject to an EU travel ban could not be refused entry into the country.

International condemnation of Assad’s regime and high-level diplomacy have failed to ease the year-old Syria conflict, which the U.N. says has killed more than 8,000 people.

But diplomatic pressure appears to be mounting. In Geneva, the U.N.’s top human rights body sharply condemned Syria’s bloody crackdown, and extended the mandate of a U.N. expert panel tasked with reporting on alleged abuses in the country.

The 47-member U.N. Human Rights Council’s resolution condemned “widespread, systematic and gross violations of human rights and fundamental freedoms perpetrated by the Syrian authorities” including summary executions, torture and sexual abuse of detainees and children, and other abuses.

UNICEF meanwhile said Friday that at least 500 Syrian children have been killed in the violence so far, while hundreds more have been injured, put in detention or abused. The U.N. children’s agency said schools have closed and health centers have shut down or become too dangerous for families to reach.

The U.N. condemnation and the EU sanctions follow a Thursday call by one of Damascus’ most steadfast allies, Russia, for Assad to pull his troops out of Syrian cities.

The regime however is pressing on with several offensives throughout the country, including in northern areas close to the rebels’ main supply bases in Turkey.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the clashes in the town of Azaz in the northern province of Aleppo have left at least three soldiers and one defector dead. The Observatory, which has a network of activists around Syria, said military helicopters were seen flying over the town, eight kilometers (five miles) from the Turkish border.

The Local Coordination Committees, another activist group, said troops were shelling residential areas in Azaz with heavy machine gun fire and mortar rounds.

The Observatory also reported that 24 mortar rounds fell Friday morning in several neighborhoods in the central city of Homs – Bab Dreib, Safsaf and Warsheh. It said two people were killed in Safsaf.

Homs has been the scene of some of the heaviest fighting in the uprising. Government forces crushed a rebel stronghold in Baba Amr neighborhood on March 1 but appear to be facing continued resistance from other parts of the city.

Activists also reported demonstrations in different parts of Syria after midday Muslim prayers, and said government troops fired on protesters.

The Observatory said security forces opened fire at a demonstration of about 1,000 people in the Damascus neighborhood of Kfar Souseh, wounding at least eight.

The LCC said security forces opened fire at protesters in the northern city of Aleppo, adding that there were casualties. The city is Syria’s largest, which is also one of Assad’s main centers of support.

Others protested in the southern province of Daraa, the coastal city of Latakia, the eastern oil-rich region of Deir el-Zour, and the central city of Hama, where three were reported wounded.

Amateur videos posted online by activists on Friday showed what they said were Soviet-designed T-72 battle tanks driving through streets in Hama. The video was taken on Tuesday, according to the activist filming the tanks. The authenticity of the video could not be independently verified.

The LCC said a total of at least 18 people were killed throughout the country. The Observatory said five were killed.

In Jordan’s capital Amman, blind Syrian cleric Ahmad al-Sayasneh preached to 1,000 Syrian anti-Assad protesters Friday to “remain steadfast until our tyrant leadership is ousted.” It was his first public appearance since fleeing Syria two months ago. A Sunni Muslim, al-Sayasneh preached at a mosque in the rebellious town of Daraa where he delivered fiery sermons calling for civil disobedience.

Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict continued, with the United Nations saying the joint U.N.-Arab League envoy, Kofi Annan, would travel to Russia and China for more talks aimed at a peaceful resolution.

Russia and China have twice in the past vetoed Security Council resolutions that criticized the regime, but the West, the U.N. and Arab countries are making a new push to get the two powers not to stand in the way of their initiatives.

On Thursday, senior Russian lawmaker Mikhail Margelov, the Kremlin-connected chairman of the foreign affairs committee in the upper house of the Russian parliament, said Assad must take the first step toward settling his country’s yearlong conflict by pulling his forces out of cities and allowing humanitarian assistance.

Margelov’s comments indicated Moscow’s increasing impatience with Assad and its eagerness to raise pressure on an old ally. Russia has been one of Assad’s strongest supporters since the crisis began.

Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby is to urge China to help in issuing a U.N. resolution that includes internationally agreed-upon proposals to end Syria’s crisis. The request was included in a memo that he will raise during next week’s Arab summit in Iraq, according to a copy obtained by The Associated Press in Cairo.

On Wednesday, the U.N. Security Council issued a statement calling for a cease-fire to allow for dialogue between all sides on a political solution.

The statement endorsed a six-point plan by joint U.N.-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan, which includes a cease-fire by Syrian forces, a daily two-hour halt to fighting to evacuate injured people and provide humanitarian aid and inclusive talks about a political solution.

Assad’s government played down the statement, saying Damascus is under no threats or ultimatums.

___

Associated Press writer Jamal Halaby in Amman, Jordan, contributed to this story.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 23, 2012, 1:20 PM (GMT+02:00)

Hossein Sheikh-ol-Eslam, Global March organizer

The Islamic regime in Tehran was not satisfied with the public support the Iranian Jewish community’s was forced to confer on the Global March to Jerusalem for which Iran is recruiting Islamists worldwide. Now, the event’s organizers, Majlis Speaker Hossein Sheikh-ol-Eslam and Salim Ghafouri, have ordered the community to send a Jewish delegation to march with the Islamist groups in Lebanon, debkafile’s Iranian sources disclose.
The delegations are scheduled to mass on the Lebanese and Jordanian borders with Israel and at West Bank and Gaza checkpoints on March 30, when Israeli Arabs mark Earth Day every year.

Iran’s ancient Jewish community of around 15,000 souls (9,000 in Tehran, 4,000 in Shiraz and 1,300 in Isfahan) has been living in fear of reprisals should Israel or the United States carry out a military operation against the country’s nuclear facilities.  Now, they face a fresh danger of murder and abduction by Hizballah and Palestinian gunmen and terrorists in Lebanon.
Jewish communal leaders were instructed by the Iranian authorities this week to have at least 10 young men aged 18 to 22 ready for the march. They were to be given “the honor” of acting as vanguard for breaking through the Lebanese-Israeli border fence and leading a mass incursion across the border.
They suspect that this ploy is meant to prevent Israeli soldiers from firing on the trespassers for fear of killing the Jewish contingent, while at the same time, exposing them to violence when the event is over at the hands of al-Qaeda linked Palestinian groups under Hizballah protection.

The Salafi doctrine held by the al Qaeda killer Muhammad Merah who murdered four Jews, including three children, in Toulouse Monday, is rife in the south Lebanese Palestinian Ain Hilwa refugee camp. The most active are two Palestinian jihadist groups, the Abdullah Azzam Brigades, which now and then shoots rockets into northern Israel, and Jund al-Sham, which is closely tied to al Qaeda branches in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, where they call themselves Osbat al-Ansar.

The two terrorist groups are the bosses of the Safouri Quarter of the camp.
Our sources report an Iranian scheme to send the Jewish marchers on a visit to Ain Hilwa to show their solidarity with the most radical Palestinian cause.

Last week, Jewish leaders were obliged to sign a declaration of solidarity with the Global March and condemnation of Israel. The text put before them for signing was as follows: We the Jews of Iran strongly condemn the barbaric crimes of the occupation regime in Palestinian and declare the Zionist state in violation of the principles of Our Teacher Moses and the Will of God. We are totally at one with the aspirations of the heroic Palestinian people.”
Signed: Dr. Syamak Mare Dedeq, Jewish Member of Parliament, and Rabbi Mashallah Golestani-Nejad, described as the Chief Rabbi of Iran.
debkafile’s Iranian sources add: Tehran is the main bankroller and live wire of the Global March against Israel’s borders and claims to have rounded up Islamist delegations from five continents to support the Palestinians. Seventy sympathizers are on their way to Lebanon, Syria and Jordan from India, Malaysia, Pakistan and other Asian countries.
To mark the event, Tehran staged a cartoon contest. The winner drew around the Al Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem a wall modeled on the fences of Auschwitz.
Both the organizers are members of the Ministry of Intelligence MOIS with long experience of managing Iranian activities on behalf of Arab and Palestinian terrorist groups. Sheikh-ol-Islam, while holding the post of Deputy Speaker of Parliament, also coordinates Tehran’s relations with the Lebanese Hizballah.
On Feb. 26, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei proclaimed the launching of the Global March to Jerusalem an expression of Iran’s policy for strengthening “resistance operations” against Israel and guarding Palestinian interests.