WarSclerotic

NewsRoomAmerica.com – Bolton Accuses Administration of Leaking Israeli Planning Along Iran Border.

By Newsroom America Staff at 1:41 pm Eastern

Former diplomat John Bolton on Thursday accused the Obama administration of leaking information about Israeli planning along Iran’s border, possibly as a prelude to a strike against Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure.

Bolton, who served as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations in the George W. Bush administration, pointed to a story in Foreign Policy Magazine that said Israel has gained access to airbases in Azerbaijan, which borders Iran on the north, possibly as a staging area for a future attack.

“I think this leak today is part of the administration’s campaign against an Israeli attack,” he told Fox News. The White House did not respond to the charge, Fox News reported.

Speaking to the network later, Bolton – who is a Fox News contributor – said he did not have hard evidence to support his claim. But he cited comments from Defense Secretary Leon Panetta in February, who said he believed the Israelis could strike Iran as soon as April.

If that’s true, Bolton said it would be “entirely consistent” for the administration to want to stop that, based on its earlier stated opposition to any Israeli strike.

Foreign Policy quoted high-ranking administration officials the magazine identified as “high-level sources … inside the U.S. government.” It specifically mentioned “four senior diplomats and military intelligence officers.”

One of the unnamed officials told the magazine the U.S. government was “watching” the Israeli activity and was “not happy about it.”

“Clearly, this is an administration-orchestrated leak,” Bolton said. “This is not a rogue CIA guy saying I think I’ll leak this out.”

“It’s just unprecedented to reveal this kind of information about one of your own allies,” he added.

The FP article said Azeri officials have denied granting Israel any rights to airbases, saying the country is a friend of Iran.

Still, relations between both nations have frayed, in recent years, FP reported, even as relations with Israel have been improving.

“Israel’s deepening relationship with the Baku government was cemented in February by a $1.6 billion arms agreement that provides Azerbaijan with sophisticated drones and missile-defense systems,” the magazine reported.

“At the same time, Baku’s ties with Tehran have frayed: Iran presented a note to Azerbaijan’s ambassador last month claiming that Baku has supported Israeli-trained assassination squads targeting Iranian scientists, an accusation the Azeri government called ‘a slander,'” it said.

© 2012 Newsroom America.

UK hints at easing sanctions if … JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

By REUTERS

03/29/2012 23:28

Hague says big powers determined to stop Iran getting bomb, warns Assad he faces growing isolation,

By REUTERS/Jeff Overs-BBC/handout

LONDON – Iran should not doubt major powers’ determination to stop it getting a nuclear bomb, British Foreign Secretary William Hague said on Thursday, but he also hinted that sanctions could be eased if Iran gave ground in a long-running nuclear dispute.

In a major foreign policy speech, Hague also warned Syrian President Bashar Assad and his allies, engaged in a bloody crackdown on a year-long revolt, that they faced more punitive sanctions, international isolation and possible prosecution unless they allowed a democratic transition to unfold.

Looking ahead to talks on Iran’s nuclear program, set to resume next month after a gap of more than a year, Hague said: “We approach these talks with sincerity and a genuine desire for a breakthrough. This can only come if Iran enters the talks in a new spirit.”

The Islamic Republic has said it expects to reopen talks with six major powers, including Britain, on April 13 and that Turkey has offered to host the meeting.

Iran and the West are locked in confrontation over its nuclear energy program, which Tehran says is peaceful but Western powers suspect is aimed at developing an atomic bomb.

Assuring Tehran that the powers do not seek regime change, Hague said: “We look to the Iranian government to prove to the world that their nuclear program is for peaceful energy, not for nuclear weapons, and to give up any plans to acquire them.”

Noting that Iran faced unprecedented sanctions, including a European Union oil import ban due to take effect on July 1, Hague appeared to hint that Iranian concessions could be rewarded with an easing of sanctions.

“It is in the Iranian government’s power to end this isolation, and if they negotiate seriously on the concerns over its nuclear program we will respond,” he said in the text of a speech to an annual Lord Mayor’s banquet in London.

Russia has advocated a “step-by-step” plan in which sanctions would be eased in return for verifiable steps by Tehran to defuse concerns about its nuclear intentions.

Continued resolve

However, Hague said that if the Iranians “do not seize this opportunity, they should not doubt our resolve to prevent nuclear proliferation in the Middle East”.

Growing tensions over Iran’s nuclear work have led to speculation that Israel or the United States could launch a pre-emptive military strike.

On Syria, Hague said Assad and his allies “must be left in no doubt that if there is not a political transition that reflects the will of the Syrian people, then they will be shunned by the international community and we will close every door to them. They will face still more sanctions.”

“And they will be pursued by mechanisms of justice,” he said, calling the behavior of Assad’s government “futile” and “morally indefensible”.

United Nations’ officials have compiled a list of Syrian figures suspected of crimes against humanity during attempts to suppress an uprising in which, according to UN figures, government forces have killed 9,000 people.

But opposition from Russia and China means the accused are unlikely to appear in the dock at the international war crimes court any time soon.

Hague said he expects a “Friends of Syria” meeting in Istanbul on Sunday to adopt new measures to increase pressure on Assad, support Syria’s opposition and boost the mission of Kofi Annan, the special UN and Arab League envoy on Syria.

Earlier on Thursday, Britain said it would double non-military aid to Assad’s opponents and expand the scope of the assistance offered, possibly including secure telephones to help activists communicate more easily.

Hague said it was in Britain’s “vital national interest” to help Arab Spring democracy movements to succeed, because of the democratic, economic and security benefits they would bring. And he said Britain would engage with new political parties in the region, “including those drawing their inspiration from Islam”.

The Arab Spring has led to a sharp rise in the influence of Islamists in several North African countries.

Attacking Iran: Did US just torpedo Israeli deal for a base in Azerbaijan? – CSMonitor.com.

Israel is developing a ‘secret staging ground’ in Azerbaijan for a possible attack on Iran, reports Foreign Policy magazine. US officials aren’t happy with that, and may have leaked the story.

By Brad Knickerbocker, Staff writer / March 29, 2012

The three-way tension between the United States, Israel, and Iran became tenser this week with a widely cited report that Israel is developing a “secret staging ground” in Iran’s neighbor to the north – Azerbaijan – for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The three-way tension between the United States, Israel, and Iran became tenser this week with a widely cited report that Israel is developing a “secret staging ground” in Iran’s neighbor to the north – Azerbaijan – for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Tehran has accused Azerbaijan of working with Israel’s spy services suspected of assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists, and individuals accused of plotting terrorist attacks with Iran have been arrested in Azerbaijan.

For their part, officials in Azerbaijan deny granting aircraft landing rights to Israel combat aircraft.

“This information is absurd and groundless,” defense ministry spokesman Teymur Abdullayev told Agence France Presse (AFP).

“We have stated on numerous occasions and we reiterate that there will be no actions against Iran … from the territory of Azerbaijan,” presidential official Ali Hasanov told journalists in Baku, AFP reported.

So far, there’s been no official comment on the Foreign Policy article by Israeli officials, who may be just as happy to increase the psychological pressure on Iran.

Early this month, President Obama made clear his position on Iran’s nuclear potential, both in meetings with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and in his speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the prominent pro-Israel lobbying organization.

“Iran’s leaders should understand that I do not have a policy of containment,” Obama told AIPAC. “I have a policy to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.”

“I will take no options off the table, and I mean what I say,” Obama said, adding for dramatic effect, “There should not be a shred of doubt by now: when the chips are down, I have Israel’s back.”

Still, the US continues to act as a diplomatic brake of sorts on any rush by Israel to attack Iran. Which may be why John Bolton – a noted hawk who served as UN ambassador in the most recent Bush administration – could be right when he says that administration officials leaked their concerns about any basing agreement between Israel and Azerbaijan.

“We’re watching what Iran does closely,” one of the US intelligence sources was quoted as saying in the Foreign Policy article. “But we’re now watching what Israel is doing in Azerbaijan. And we’re not happy about it.”

DEBKA.

Barack Obama and Tayyip Erdogan

US President Barack Obama’s message to incoming Russian President Vladimir Putin through an open mike in Seoul must have reached Tehran like the rest of the world, even before Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan carried it in person to Iranian leaders Wednesday, March 28.
“On all these issues, but particularly missile defense, this can be solved. But it’s important for him (Putin) to give me space. This is my last election,” said Obama to Dmitry Medvedev Monday, March 26. Bearing this message to his successor was also probably Medvedev’s last diplomatic commission as Russian president.
He nodded as his left hand was clasped in Obama’s left hand, saying, “I will tell it to Vladimir.”
There were no open microphones to record the commission Obama placed on Erdogan during their two hour, 15-minute long conversation in the South Korean capital a day earlier.
And so DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources don’t have its exact text. But they have enough information to conclude that Obama’s message to the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei resembled his request of Putin: This (the nuclear issue) can be solved, but it’s important (for Khamenei) to give him, Obama, space, because this is his last election.
Obama’s struggle to adjourn key external policy decisions until he has more leeway in a second term as president met with little sympathy in Tehran.

Khamenei wants broad agenda for April talks – not just nuclear controversy

According to the information reaching DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources, Erdogan was already in receipt of a tough demand from the Iranian Supreme Leader before he set out for Seoul.
He was directed by Khamenei in person to inform the US president when they met that he is flatly opposed to the coming meeting on April 13 between Iran and the Six Powers (the five permanent UN Security Council members + Germany) being devoted to Iran’s nuclear program and nothing else.
Khamenei demands that the agenda be wider in scope and aim for comprehensive deals on all the topics at issue between Iran and the United States.
(The last DEBKA-Net-Weekly issue, No. 534, elaborated on the nine issues Khamenei wants addressed: See “Iran Leery of Secret Talks with US: No Practical Results from Secret Diplomacy with Washington Expected in Tehran.”)
When they sat down to talk in the South Korean capital, President Obama heard the Turkish premier out. But, outside the Syrian issue, he simply ignored Khamenei’s demands and dictated the following points for Erdogan to put before the Iranian leader:
1. Tehran must come to the forthcoming talks next month ready to show it is seriously and genuinely open to a compromise deal on its nuclear program;

Obama: Iran’s nuclear program frozen – not dismantled

2. A negative attitude on Iran’s part would result in President Obama merging the back-channel US-Iranian dialogue with the on-the-table diplomatic negotiations starting next month.
The international forum would then mutate into the overall framework for the direct US-Iranian track. (DEBKA-Net-Weekly 534 also reported that Washington was satisfied with the secret talks it has been conducting with Tehran and was ready to wind down sanctions.)
Obama did not specify whether in those circumstances, the direct secret track would be shut down, put on hold or allowed to lapse.
He asked the Turkish prime minister to inform the Supreme Leader that the Russian and Chinese presidents, Hu Jintao and Medvedev, had agreed to go along with this position if Khamenei found it acceptable.
3. Any deal would require a commitment from Khamenei to freeze – though not dismantle – all aspects of Iran’s nuclear program from the moment an accord was reached. No new projects must be initiated and all progress arrested.
For example: The centrifuges already functioning in the Fordo underground plant near Qom must not be expanded; research on nuclear weapons and the construction of models discontinued; and the transition of uranium enrichment from 3.5 percent grade to 20 percent halted.
But they would all remain in place.

Obama wants to hear Iranian rhetoric kinder to America

4. President Obama asked Erdogan to convey a personal message from him to the Iranian leader:
He was favorably impressed with the ayatollah’s comments in the New Year speech he broadcast live on state television Tuesday, March 20: “We do not have nuclear weapons and we will not build them,” said the ayatollah. “But in the face of aggression from enemies, whether from America or the Zionist regime, we will defend ourselves with attacks on the same level as our enemies attack us.”
Obama also sent a reply to another Khamenei remark. Addressing thousands of pilgrims gathered at the Imam Reza Shrine in Mashhad, the Supreme Leader said: “The Americans are making a grave mistake if they think that by making threats they will destroy the Iranian nation.”
To this, the US President answered that neither he nor America entertained any such intention.
5. Tehran must change the hostile anti-US tone of is speeches and publications and stop calling America an enemy and the Great Satan. In place of antipathy, Obama would deeply appreciate a series of helpful comments coming from Iranian leaders and news reports out of Tehran, especially if they highlighted an improved Islamic Republican attitude towards the United States as a result of his administration’s polices.
Erdogan was asked to hold up as an example of the sort of remark Obama had in mind the words of praise Khamenei offered President Obama on March 8, “for promoting diplomacy rather than war” as a solution to Tehran’s nuclear ambition.
More of this sort of rhetoric would be welcome, the Turkish prime minister was directed to inform Tehran.
None of the messages he carried explicitly mentioned the US presidential campaign, DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources note. However, the rewards accruing to Tehran from extending a helping hand for Obama’s reelection were evident in the subtext.

Obama’s path to a nuclear accommodation faces many obstacles

Benign Iranian references to America would give Obama the chance to credit his foreign policy with kudos for an important breakthrough to the Islamic Republic. The improved climate surrounding relations would reduce the hazards of a war being launched against Iran. By helping to get him returned for a second term, Tehran would put the US president in place for the pursuit of policies agreed between him and Khamenei in the course of their secret dialogue.
6. Erdogan was asked to explain the US President’s strategy of drawing a close linkage between the shifts in US policy on Iran and its nuclear program, on the one hand, and the Syrian crisis, on the other. This approach had guided Obama’s hand in his thus far successful moves to block Muslim-Arab-Western military intervention in Syria.
The US president believes that the coalition working for Syria of Washington, Moscow, Beijing and Tehran and the United Nations (UN and Arab League envoy, the former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan was mentioned in this regard) could be equally successful in resolving the Iranian nuclear controversy.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly notes that the runaround the Iranians gave the Turkish prime minister in Tehran Wednesday before he was granted an audience with the supreme leader (see separate article in this issue) was not an encouraging augury of Iran’s good intentions.
Obama’s path to a negotiated settlement of the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program will not be strewn with roses. Turkey has gone into action on its own account and the Israelis are unwilling to stand by and wait upon the outcome of his back-door dialogue with the Iranian leader, as will be shown in two separate articles in this issue.

DEBKA.

Moshe Ya’alon

Ears pricked up in Western intelligence circles dealing with Iran over a couple of loaded comments made by Binyamin Netanyahu’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Strategic Affairs Moshe Ya’alon in an interview with the local Army Radio station this week.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly presents the exchange verbatim:
Interviewer: How important are the nuclear talks between Iran and the six world powers starting in mid-April?
Ya’alon: The talks will show whether sanctions have a chance of working or that the Iranians are persisting in their maneuvers while moving forward toward a military nuclear capability.
Interviewer: Does this mean the Netanyahu government might be just weeks away from launching a war against Iran?“
Ya’alon: “No. Look, we have to see. …The (Iranian nuclear) project is not static — whether that means progress, or sometimes, retreat. All sorts of things are happening there.
“Sometimes there are explosions, sometimes there are worms there, viruses, all kinds of things like that.”

Tehran’s SOS for cyber help against new malworm

Reporters took Ya’alon remarks as a reference to the troubles bedeviling Iran’s nuclear program in the past three years, such as the Stuxnet virus which stymied core computer systems and the assassinations of senior scientists. They assumed he was hinting at a new flare-up.
They just happened to hit the nail on the head: Iran is under a new cyber attack.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s intelligence and Iranian sources disclose now that, in the second week of March, the Iranians were stunned to encounter a new and unfamiliar mutation of the Stuxnet malworm, whose initial attack was eventually overcome with great difficulty. The virus had slithered underground to infect the computerized command and control centers installed for safety against air and missile attack in a fortified nuclear facility at Fordow, near Qom.
The strange alien had infiltrated the P1 centrifuges for enriching uranium just moved in from Natanz, as well as the new, advanced IR4 machines.
American security firms report that a sample of the new virus had reached them for analysis. They did not say where it came from or whether it was the same malworm which invaded the computer-based systems at Fordow.
Our sources suggest Iran may have urgently sent samples for testing and a cure to Russian and European cyber security firms, which passed them on to American experts.

Stuxnet or Duqu – or both?

Some American cyber warfare buffs suggest the new troublemaker is a form of the Duqu spy program discovered last fall, which was programmed to gather intelligence on industrial control systems for possible use in a future Stuxnet-like attack.
They deduce from the similarity in code that whoever wrote Duqu either wrote Stuxnet too, or had access to the powerful worm’s source code, which was never released in the public domain. Last November, the original Duqu was suspected to have infected systems in several countries, such as Vietnam and France, as well as Iran.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources are not at all sure that Duqu is Iran’s culprit. They say it is far more likely that an advanced mutation of Stuxnet has returned to the offensive, meaning that Iran’s nuclear program is under its third cyber assault in two and-a-half years.
This theory is of sweeping significance: If true, it would mean that the hugely risky option of striking the Fordow plant by air or with missiles may be less urgent than believed; that the Americans can stop developing more and more powerful Joint Direct Attack Munition GBU 31/32/38 bunker busters; and that the US and Israel can stop arguing about whether the Israeli Air Force is capable of disabling Fordow and other deep-buried nuclear projects.
If new malworms are indeed on the march, Iran’s nuclear program networks are already under malicious attack by an enemy within, one that is capable of reaching nuclear weapons plants in the deepest of bunkers.

Is Israel’s IDF Cyber Brigade at work?

The inference is that Israel has unleashed a new cyber attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons-making systems with the immediate object of disrupting their transfer lock, stock and barrel to impregnable, underground sites. Those sites were dubbed “immunity zones” by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources believe this cyber attack – if one is really afoot – is only just beginning; Iran is about to be confronted with far more extensive disruptions of the program’s functionality in the coming weeks.
Our military sources say that, if is successful, this offensive will be the most spectacular to have been mounted in the short annals of modern cyber warfare. Some American and other military buffs talk about it in terms of a revolution in military war doctrine, comparable to the advent of fighter jet bombers in the 1950s which revolutionized air force potency and tactics.
The back-room figure pulling the strings of Israel’s cyber force is former Military Intelligence Chief Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, who created the top-secret Israel Defense Forces Cyber Brigade.
A great deal is riding on the efficacy of the new malworm offensive for compromising Iran’s nuclear weapons program. As much depends on the extent of the damage it causes as on the conditions Ayatollah Ali Khamenei decides to lay down for entering into meaningful negotiations on the future of that program with the six world powers next month.

Analysis: US ‘leaks’ on Iran mean… JPost – Diplomacy & Politics.

By REUTERS/Handout

Yossi Klein Halevi, in an article on The New Republic‘s website earlier this month entitled “Why Israel Still Can’t Trust That Obama Has its Back,” argued that Washington seems more concerned about warning Israel, than stopping Iran.

“Even when he seemed to be warning Tehran, he was really warning Jerusalem,” Halevi said about US President Barack Obama’s AIPAC speech. “His goal these last days hasn’t been so much to deter them but us.”

A mere look at the headlines in some key Iran-related stories in the media over the last few weeks proves Halevi’s point. These are stories whose conclusions are that Israel cannot stop Iran’s nuclear program, or that such an attack would actually get Iran to speed up its program, or that it would suck the US into a war.

The thrust seems more about stopping Israel, and a concern about what Israel might do, than about Iran.

Thursday’s piece in Foreign Policy magazine by Mark Perry about Israel’s ties with Azerbaijan just proves the point. There was something off-putting about the whole tone of the piece, as if the bad guy in this story was not Iran, trying to acquire nuclear weapons, but rather Israel, for establishing close ties with Baku and securing the use of air bases near the Iranian border in order to more effectively carry out an attack if needed.

According to the article, “We’re watching what Iran does closely,’ one of the US sources, an intelligence officer engaged in assessing the ramifications of a prospective Israeli attack confirmed.’But we’re now watching what Israel is doing in Azerbaijan. And we’re not happy about it’.”

And this is just the latest in a series of high profile stories, based – in most cases on unnamed American sources – warning about a possible strike. Either Israel doesn’t have the ability to carry it out (The New York Times, February 19); or – according to the conclusions of a classified war simulation – will drag the US into a wider conflict and cost hundreds of American lives (The New York Times, March 19); or an attack would only further accelerate Iran’s bid for the bomb (Reuters, March 29).

According to the logic in the last piece, if Israel attacked, then Iran – which essentially developed its program in contravention of the Non Proliferation Treaty it signed, and despite international inspectors – may chose not to let those inspectors back in and, as a result, have an easier time pursuing nuclear weapons.  Now that is an interesting bit of logic: Don’t attack, because if you do then Iran won’t let back in the inspectors who were so impotent in the first place that Teheran is now on the cusp of nuclear capability.

And this constant drumbeat of Israel-must-not-take-action articles is not only in press reports. A report Wednesday by the Congressional Research Service—the US Congress’s non-partisan “think tank” – said Iran could recover from a strike and rebuild its centrifuge workshops within six months, meaning that such a strike would be futile.  It is “unclear what the ultimate effect of a strike would be on the likelihood of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons,” the report read.

These reports and stories are not being made up out of whole cloth. Rather they are fed by sources intent on sending a clear message: Do not attack.

That a spate of these reports are coming out just a couple weeks after Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu met Obama in the White House shows that despite the smiles and the talk then about understanding and hyper-close coordination, the US and Israel are not seeing eye-to-eye on the Iranian “military option” issue.

The US wants Israel to wait, and what this constant drip of stories indicates is a sense in Washington that its efforts to convince Israel to do so are failing.  As a result, a more public route is being use by some in Washington to get that message across and try and tie Jerusalem’s hands.

Israel’s plan to attack Iran put on hold until next year at the earliest – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

( I could be wrong, but this has the feeling to me of pure, unadulterated disinformation. – JW )

Damning U.S. war simulation forces Ehud Barak to reconsider attack plans; Americans pledge more money for Iron Dome antimissile system.

By Amir Oren

At 8:58 P.M. on Tuesday, Israel’s 2012 war against Iran came to a quiet end. The capricious plans for a huge aerial attack were returned to the deep recesses of safes and hearts. The war may not have been canceled but it has certainly been postponed. For a while, at least, we can sound the all clear: It won’t happen this year. Until further notice, Israel Air Force Flight 007 will not be taking off.

According to a war simulation conducted by the U.S. Central Command, the Iranians could kill 200 Americans with a single missile response to an Israeli attack. An investigative committee would not spare any admiral or general, minister or president. The meaning of this U.S. scenario is that the blood of these 200 would be on Israel’s hands.

	The base in Parchin where Iran conducted nuclear tests.
	Photo by: Google Earth, GeoEye

The moment the public dispute over whether to attack Iran is put in those terms, Israel has no real option to attack in contravention of American declarations and warnings.

That’s the negative side. The complementary positive side was presented this week, on Tuesday evening. At 8:20, Pentagon spokesman George Little announced that the Defense Department would be seeking more money to help Israel fund the Iron Dome antimissile defense system.

Noting that support for Israel’s security was a top priority for U.S. President Barack Obama and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, Little said that, given the Iron Dome system’s success in intercepting 80 percent of the rockets fired from Gaza this month, the Defense Department “intends to request an appropriate level of funding to support such acquisitions, based on Israeli requirements and production capacity.”

Thirty-eight minutes after that, Defense Minister Ehud Barak publicly thanked both Panetta and himself (“The decision was the result of contacts between the Defense Ministry and the Pentagon” ).

Israelis may be the world champions of chutzpah, but even biting the hand that feeds you has its limits when the bitten hand is liable to hit back. When Barak thanked the Obama administration “for helping strengthen Israel’s security,” he was abandoning the pretension to act against Iran without permission before the U.S. presidential elections in November.

For all intents and purposes, it was an announcement that this war was being postponed until at least the spring of 2013.

IDF to Remain on Full Alert Over Passover – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

IDF Chief of Staff Benny Gantz

Flash 90

The IDF on Tuesday broke with Israeli tradition and ordered all units to cancel the long-customary Passover leaves and remain on full alert over the holiday.

Over the years, an army-wide break during Passover became a tradition followed by all major military units, including the Air Force, Navy and intelligence corps.

But this year soldiers will have to divide their vacation days among themselves in order to ensure that their units remain at full strength.

Senior military officials insisted the decision did not stem from any planned military operations set to occur on – or immediately after – the holiday.

IDF chief of staff Benny Gantz said Wednesday he gave the order saying he “does not accept” the notion of an army-wide vacation during Passover.

According to reports, many soldiers who received the news Tuesday did not believe the timing of the decision was arbitrary and dismissed Gantz’s explanation as obfuscation.

Military analysts say the decision does not necessarily reflect plans to undertake a major operation, but likely stems from ongoing security concerns originating in Hamas-run Gaza.

Israel averted at least one major terror attack intended to be staged from Sinai in recent months, killing the alleged planner in an airstrike.

That strike led to a spike in hostilities with Gaza’s terror gangs, who fired at least 200 rockets into Israel over a period of four days.

Israeli airstrikes on rocket launching cells firing from densely populated civilian killed 26 Gazans, of whom at least 21 were terrorists.

Critics say that Israel’s airstrikes-for-rockets strategic posture vis-a-vis Gaza has only served to perpetuate the now simmering security situation in Israel’s south.

A growing cadre of senior security officials and former IDF chiefs have called for a major Gaza incursion to uproot the terror infrastructure there.

Gantz himself has described such an operation as “increasingly inevitable.”

Analysis: US thwarting Israeli strike on Iran – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Obama betraying Israel? US making deliberate effort to hinder Iran strike by leaking classified info, intelligence assessments, says Ron Ben-Yishai in special Ynet report

Ron Ben-Yishai

The United States is leaking information to the media in order to avert an Israeli strike in Iran: The US Administration recently shifted into high gear in its efforts to avert an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities by the end of the year. The flood of reports in the American media in recent weeks attests not only to the genuine US fear that Israel intends to realize its threats; moreover, it indicates that the Obama Administration has decided to take its gloves off.

Indeed, in recent weeks the Administration shifted from persuasion efforts vis-à-vis decision-makers and Israel’s public opinion to a practical, targeted assassination of potential Israeli operations in Iran. This “surgical strike” is undertaken via reports in the American and British media, but the campaign’s aims are fully operational: To make it more difficult for Israeli decision-makers to order the IDF to carry out a strike, and what’s even graver, to erode the IDF’s capacity to launch such strike with minimal casualties.

The first and most important American objective is to eliminate potential operational options available to the IDF and the State of Israel. I have no intention of detailing or even hinting to the options which the US government aims to eliminate by exposing them in the media. A large part of the reports stem from false information or disinformation, and there is no reason to reveal to the Iranians what’s real and what isn’t. However, it is blatantly clear that reports in the past week alone have caused Israel substantive diplomatic damage, and possibly even military and operational damage.

Israeli F-16 (Photo: Gettyimages)

Another Administration objective is to convince the Israeli public that an Iran strike (including a US attack) will not achieve even the minimum required to justify it; that is, a delay of at least 3-5 years in Iran’s nuclear program. A lengthy postponement would of course justify the suffering on Israel’s home front, while a six-month delay – as argued by a US Congress report – does not justify the risks.

The six-month figure was meant for the Israeli public, so that it would press Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barakto avoid a strike, whose futility the Americans are trying to prove in every way possible. At the same time, the campaign aims to erode the validity of demands voiced by many members of Congress and Senate – both Democrats and Republicans – who criticize the American president’s inaction.

The Congress report published Wednesday is maligned by several inaccuracies, in terms of both analysis and information. However, this makes no difference. The aim was to make headlines in the Israeli and Washington media, rather than an in-depth analysis, which isn’t possible as Congress researchers in Washington do not have access to all the relevant information, fortunately.

Congress in Iran’s service

The third objective of the recent publications is to scare the Israeli public via an apocalyptic account of possible retaliation by Iran and its “clients.” This effort also aims to press Israeli decision-makers not to act (including the mention in the Congress report of the accurate fact that Israel’s home front is not adequately prepared to sustain a blow.) Some observers would argue that these reports are not damaging, but rather, grant the Israeli threat validity, thereby serving Western representatives in upcoming negotiations with Iran. So what’s wrong with that?

The damage has to do with the revelation of secret information and assessments that would require an expensive, risky intelligence effort for the Iranians to acquire. Indeed, the Iranians already realize that the West and Israel possess plenty of up-to-date information on Iran’s nuclear project, including centrifuge workshops in Tehran homes. The Ayatollah regime can also predict possible attack routes and methods by Israel and the US.

A map of Iran’s nuclear facilities 

However, any rookie intelligence officer knows that there is a huge difference between unconfirmed estimates and solid facts or IDF aims and capabilities. Any Iranian intelligence analyst who reads the latest US Congress report or the Foreign Policy report will find invaluable information there. The overwhelming majority of the information has already been published, yet instead of forcing the Iranians to piece together all the assessments themselves, the Congress report offers them everything in one place, including detailed analysis.

Fortunately, as noted, Congress researchers and those who leaked the information to them apparently have some trouble in terms of reading comprehension.

Betraying an ally

To sum up, the American publications caused the following damage:

• Iran now has a decent picture of what Israel’s and America’s intelligence communities know about Tehran’s nuclear program and defense establishment, including its aerial defenses.

• The Iranians now know about the indications that would be perceived by Washington and Jerusalem as a “nuclear breakthrough”. Hence, Iran can do a better job of concealment.

• The reports make it more difficult to utilize certain operational options. These options, even if not considered thus far, could have been used by the US in the future, should Iran not thwart them via diplomatic and military means.

Needless to say, this is not how one should be treating an ally, even if this is a relationship between a superpower and a satellite state. The targeted assassination campaign currently undertaken by the US government also sharply contradicts President Obama’s declaration at the AIPAC Conference, whereby he and the US recognize Israel’s sovereign right to defend itself by itself. One cannot utter these words and a moment later exposes Israel’s vulnerabilities and possible strike routes to its enemies.

Indeed, there is a difference between legitimate persuasion efforts and practical steps to thwart Israeli plans and eliminate them.

For a total of seven years, I served as Yedioth Ahronoth’s reporter in Washington, so I know very well that with a few exceptions, the US Administration knows how to prevent leaks to the media if it so wishes. This is the case even when dealing with former officials, and most certainly when dealing with current government officials. What we are seeing here is not a trickle of information, but rather, a powerful current, a true flood that leaves no doubt as to the existence of an orchestrated media campaign with clear aims.

There is another interesting aspect to this story from an American point of view: In 2002, when President George W. Bush sought to embark on war in Iraq, US intelligence agencies provided him with all the “evidence” that Saddam Hussein is developing large quantities of nuclear and chemical weapons. Following the war, when no traces of such weapons were discovered in Iraq, a Congress inquiry found that US intelligence officials were so eager to satisfy their president that they cut corners and relied on unsubstantiated information.

Given American media reports in recent days, one must wonder whether history is repeating itself. Could it be that the US intelligence community is providing President Obama with what he needs for political reasons – that is, information meant to curb an Israeli or American strike on Iran?

‘Azerbaijan granted Israel access to air bases on Iran border’ – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Foreign Policy quotes U.S. diplomats as saying that ‘Israel is deeply embedded in Azerbaijan’ and says intelligence officials worried that Israel’s military involvement in Azerbaijan would complicate efforts to reduce Israeli-Iranian tensions.

By Haaretz

Israel has been granted access to air bases in Azerbaijan on Iran’s northern border, Foreign Policy reported Wednesday, quoting senior U.S. diplomats and military intelligence officials.

“The Israelis have bought an airfield,” a senior U.S. administration official told Foreign Policy’s Mark Perry, “and the airfield is called Azerbaijan.”

	Israeli F-16I fighter jets
	Photo by: IDF Spokesperson’s Unit

According to the report, U.S. intelligence officials are worried that Israel’s military involvement in Azerbaijan would make it more difficult for the U.S. to reduce Israeli-Iranian tensions. Apparently now, military planners must prepare for a war scenario that would also involve the Caucasus.

“We’re watching what Iran does closely,” said a U.S. intelligence officer involved in assessing the consequences of a potential Israeli strike on Iran. “But we’re now watching what Israel is doing in Azerbaijan. And we’re not happy about it.”

In February, Israel signed a $1.6 billion arms deal with Azerbaijan, committing to sell drones and anti-aircraft missile defense systems to Baku. According to a retired U.S. diplomat, the deal left Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan “sputtering in rage,” since Israel had previously canceled a contract to develop drones with the Turkish military.

The report said that the Azeri military has four abandoned, Soviet-era airfields that could be available to Israel and four air bases for their own aircraft, quoting the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Military Balance 2011.

U.S. officials told Foreign Policy that they believe Israel has been granted access to these air bases through a “series of quiet political and military understandings.”

“I doubt that there’s actually anything in writing,” said a former U.S. diplomat who spent his career in the region. “But I don’t think there’s any doubt – if Israeli jets want to land in Azerbaijan after an attack, they’d probably be allowed to do so. Israel is deeply embedded in Azerbaijan, and has been for the last two decades.”

The report states that Israel’s embassy in Washington, the IDF, the Mossad, and the Shin Bet were all asked to comment on the story but failed to respond. Also, the Azeri embassy to the U.S. did not respond when asked about Azerbaijan’s security agreements with Israel.

Earlier this month, Azerbaijan authorities arrested 22 people suspected of plotting to attack the Israeli and American embassies in the capital Baku. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards was reportedly behind the plan to attack Israeli and U.S. targets in the country, according to Azerbaijan’s national security ministry.