WarSclerotic

Rep. King: Israeli attack on Iran won’t be ‘surgical’ strike – The Hill’s DEFCON Hill.

House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Pete King (R-N.Y.) on Wednesday suggested that an Israeli attack on Iran could involve the United States in a military conflict with Tehran, but cautioned that the possibility should not weaken resolve to halt Iran’s nuclear program.

“There’s no doubt that if Israel does attack Iran, this is not going to be easy, it’s not going to be surgical, and again the U.S. could find itself implicated or involved in it,” said King on CNN’s “Starting Point.”

“I don’t think we can rule out an Israeli attack. I think we need to keep all the pressure out there. Sometimes the president has had mixed signals — I think in recent weeks he’s gotten more consistent to Iran. But again, the fact that there can be complications are not a reason why Israel shouldn’t do it or we shouldn’t do it,” he added.

King was responding to a question about a Pentagon war game exploring the fallout from a pre-emptive military strike by Israel against Iran, first reported in The New York Times. The war game, dubbed Internal Look, found such an attack would likely result in American casualties.

“We have to make sure that whatever we do, that it is going to work, the best that we know about it, and realize that Iran cannot be allowed to get any nuclear weapons,” said King.

King also warned against domestic threats from Hezbollah, a militant group bankrolled by Iran. The lawmaker is holding a hearing Wednesday on “Iran’s primary terrorism proxies” and “the real potential that the regime will activate its network of operatives to carry out an attack here.”

“Our preliminary findings are that this could be a very, very significant threat,” said King about his hearing “Iran, Hezbollah and the Threat to the Homeland.”

“Most Americans don’t realize that Hezbollah has had agents and operatives in this country for many years,” he said. “The conventional wisdom among intelligence or law enforcement was that they were here for fundraising, facilitation, recruitment, not necessarily to carry out terrorist attacks. However, we do know that a number of them have been trained as terrorists, so the question is how quickly they can be made operational and would they carry out attacks.”

King cited last year’s FBI investigation of a foiled Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States and statements from Iran’s supreme leader on Tuesday that Iranians would attack to defend themselves from the United States or Israel to argue Americans should take the threat more seriously.

He said Hezbollah provided Iran with a “terrorist-trained force in this country.”

“It really is the A-team of international terrorism, far more sophisticated than al Qaeda,” King said. “I think it’s important to educate Americans and members of Congress, most of whom are not aware that Iran has such a significant number. We estimate it to be at least in the hundreds, if not in the thousands, of Hezbollah agents here in this country.”

Iranian Diplomats Cased Landmarks, Police Official Says – Bloomberg.

Iranian diplomats may have carried out “hostile reconnaissance” of New York City as many as six times, a warning sign the city could be targeted for terrorist attack, according to a New York Police Department official.

The incidents, which occurred between 2002 and 2010, involved videotaping or photographing New York landmarks, subways and bridges, said Mitchell Silber, director of the department’s intelligence analysis unit.

Hezbollah, a militant group allied with Iran that has been designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. State Department, also has ties to the New York region, he said.

“The city remains the most likely venue for global tensions with Iran to spill over onto American soil,” Silber told the House Homeland Security Committee in testimony prepared for a hearing in Washington today on the threat from Iran and Hezbollah.

Silber gave new details on the alleged Iranian reconnaissance efforts as tensions increase over the Islamic republic’s unwillingness to scale back its nuclear program in the face of opposition from the U.S. and Israel.

Last month, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said she was concerned that Hezbollah would attempt a terrorist attack on American soil and that she had been in touch with U.S. Jewish groups. Napolitano said she wasn’t aware of any specific threats to the groups or other U.S. targets.

Surveillance Criticized

The New York police themselves have come under criticism for conducting surveillance of Muslim communities. The New York- based Human Rights Watch yesterday requested in a letter to Attorney General Eric Holder that the Justice Department formally investigate the city department’s actions.

The U.S. and Europe have piled additional economic sanctions on Iran since a Nov. 8 United Nations atomic inspectors’ report raised questions about Iran’s nuclear program. The sanctions are meant to pressure Iran’s leaders to abandon any weapons-related work and head off conflict in the Persian Gulf region that holds more than half the world’s oil reserves.

The Iranian surveillance has been going on for some time, Silber said. In February 2010, federal air marshals found four people who said they worked for the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting Co. videotaping and photographing the Wall Street heliport, he said. One person held a camera at waist level, focusing on the structure and not the helicopters in the air, he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Bliss in Washington at jbliss@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steven Komarow at skomarow1@bloomberg.net

On March 19, 2012, a terrorist opened fire on the Jewish school Ozar Hatorah in Toulouse, France. As of this writing, the suspected gunman, 24-year-old Muhammad Merah, is holed up in a nearby apartment building, with French police still attempting to negotiate his surrender.

Merah, a French-Algerian who spent time training in jihad camps in Pakistan and Afghanistan in 2010 and 2011, told the French authorities that the shooting was to avenge the deaths of Palestinian children. He also claimed responsibility for the March 15 murder of three French soldiers, which he said was due their role in the Afghanistan war.

Merah claims to belong to Al-Qaeda, and, indeed, appears to be a member of the French Al-Qaeda branch Fursan Al-‘Izza (“The Knights of Glory,” spelled in French, “Forsane Alizza”).

Following is an overview of this group:

Fursan Al-‘Izza Affiliated with Global Shari’a Movement

For its logo, Fursan Al-‘Izza uses Al-Qaeda’s well-known black flag, and is ideologically aligned with the worldwide shari’a movement calling to Islamize Western states and societies by implementing shari’a law, exalting the word of Allah, abolishing democratic states, and replacing them with Islamic regimes.[2]

The group’s leaders include Abu Hamza, aka Mohamed Achamlane, who used the handle “Cortex” on Islamic forums. Abu Hamza, 33, hails from the French city of Nantes, is fluent in both Arabic and French, and identifies himself as Fursan Al-‘Izza’s spokesman. He was set to stand trial on June 24, 2011, in Limoges for incitement, and for publicly trampling a copy of the French Penal Code while saying: “This is the book that should be burned,” apparently in a reference to Koran burnings spurred by American pastor Terry Jones. Another man, Oueri Neba, was to stand trial along with Abu Hazma for antisemitic comments he made at a McDonald’s restaurant in Limoges.[3]

Another central figure in Fursan Al-‘Izza, who used the handle “MedMed,” described himself as living in Caen, France.[4] He is the creator of Fursan Al-‘Izza’s official website[5] and a longtime active member of France’s Islamist forums.[6]

Fursan Al-‘Izza has supporters and members in Limoges, Caen, Paris (specifically in the 17th district and the immigrant suburb La Courneuve), and Toulouse, the scene of the shooting. In one of the group’s videos, it is shown holding a public meeting, which it says are held weekly and intended to “confront unbelievers” and provide “Islamic reminders [of a Muslim’s duties].”[7]

Fursan Al-‘Izza’s pages on Facebook[8] have been closed down several times. For this reason, the group is mainly active on Mon-islam.com, a comparable social network used by France’s Islamist community.[9] It also maintains a Twitter page.[10]

A recent Fursan Al-‘Izza video calls on “all Arab countries to boycott France and its products, and to teach them a lesson” by “pushing France a little deeper into the [economic] rut it has dug for itself,” until it repeals its laws banning the niqab and hijab. The video opens with the slogan “Restore the Caliphate,” and ends with the slogan “Disavow the idol of democracy.”[11]

“The future is Islam”[12]

Fursan Al-‘Izza Participates in Islamist Demonstration against France’s Burqa Ban

On April 4, 2011, Fursan Al-‘Izza, along with other Islamist groups like Jama’at Al-Tawheed, Sharia4Belgium, and Sharia4UK, announced that it would take part in an April 9 demonstration in Paris’s Place de la Nation against the French law prohibiting full concealment of the face – the so-called burqa ban – which went into effect on April 11.[13] The French authorities ultimately revoked the demonstration’s permit and broke it up, arresting several participants.

Following is a summary of the events:

Online flier for the April 9 demonstration: “The ummah is awakening!”

On April 3, 2011, Sharia4Belgium issued a video in which its leader, Abu Imran, aka Fouad Belkacem, responded to the France-based Jama’at Al-Tawheed’s call to participate in an April 9 demonstration against France’s so-called burqa ban, by affirming that he would, indeed, be in Paris to take part. Abu Imran also called on Carla Bruni to divorce French President Nicolas Sarkozy and to don the niqab. He asked Allah for the strength to hoist the black flag of Al-Qaeda atop the Elysée Palace. On April 6, MEMRI TV posted the video, with English subtitles, on its site.[14] On April 7, Jama’at Al-Tawheed’s website featured both the Sharia4Belgium video as well as another video, in which UK-based Islamist Anjem Choudhary, head of Sharia4UK, said he would also attend the April 9 demonstration in Paris.

On April 8, the demonstration, which had until then been authorized by the police, was banned on the grounds of “possible violence and turmoil.” Anjem Choudhary and Abu Imran were arrested en route to Paris, as were 19 niqab-clad women on their way to the Place de la Nation. One of these women was carrying an “illicit weapon.”[15]

Israel Hayom | Eilat bombing and abduction thwarted, security officials say.

(Whew…! – JW)

Alan Dershowitz: Why Deterrence Won’t Work Against Iran | JewishPress.

Following President Obama’s strong renunciation of “containment” and his expression of willingness to use military force as a last resort to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, some on the left continue to oppose any threat to use the military option. Leading this approach is Fareed Zakaria, who recently on his CNN program, characterized the Obama policy as “a serious error,” and called instead for a “robust policy of containment and deterrence.”

But the policy that Zakaria is proposing is anything but robust. To the contrary, it is a call for inaction. It presumed that Iran will be allowed to develop nuclear weapons, but that they will be deterred from actually using them by the threat of nuclear retaliation. Zakaria points to the fact that deterrence succeeded in preventing war between the United States and the Soviet Union, as well as between India and Pakistan. He claims that each side was effectively deterred by the threat of mutually assured destruction. He says it will work equally well with Iran.

Let us pause for a moment to understand precisely what a policy of deterrence entails. Any such policy is based on the promise that if one side launches a nuclear attack, the other side will retaliate with an equally devastating nuclear attack, thus assuring the destruction of both societies and the deaths of millions of innocent civilians. The first question therefore is whether the United States would actually be willing to retaliate against a nuclear attack on Israel by dropping nuclear bombs on Tehran, killing millions of its civilian inhabitants. The second question is whether any civilized country—the United States or Israel—should be willing to kill millions of Iranian civilians because their leaders made a decision to use nuclear weapons against Israel or the United States. The third question—and the one never asked by advocates of deterrence—is whether it would be legal, under the laws of war, to target millions of civilians in a retaliatory nuclear attack. These are the kinds of questions that Fareed Zakaria and his dovish colleagues refuse to ask. And the reason they refuse to ask these hard questions is precisely because we know the answers they would give: They would be categorically opposed to any retaliatory attack that targeted civilians in a tit-for-tat implementation of a mutually assured destruction policy of deterrence. If you don’t believe me, ask him!

As to the legality of nuclear deterrence, the International Court of Justice issued a decision in 1996, in a case challenging the lawfulness of using, or threatening to use, nuclear weapons. The majority decision declined “to pronounce…on the practice known as ‘the policy of deterrence’.” It did rule unanimously, however, that any “threat or use of nuclear weapons” must “be compatible with the requirements of the international law applicable in armed conflict, particularly those of the principles and rules of international humanitarian law…” These rules, of course, generally forbid the targeting of civilian population centers and require proportionality even in the bombing of military targets. Since nuclear weapons are, by their nature, virtually incapable of destroying military targets without also inflicting countless civilian casualties, it would seem to follow that they could not be used except against remote military targets, such as ships and submarines on the high seas, or armies in isolated deserts or mountains. In a divided vote, the court ruled that:

“the threat or use of nuclear weapons would generally be contrary to the rules of international law applicable in armed conflict…”

“However, in view of the current state of international law, and of the elements of fact at its disposal, the Court cannot conclude definitively whether the threat or use of nuclear weapons would be lawful or unlawful in an extreme circumstance of self-defence in which the very survival of a State would be at stake.”

In other words, it would be unlawful for the United States to threaten or use nuclear weapons as a deterrent, since its “very survival” would not be at stake, but it might be lawful for Israel to do so because it is a small state whose very survival would, in fact, be at stake were it to be attacked by nuclear weapons.

Menachem Begin, the Israeli Prime Minister who ordered the preventive attack on Iraq’s nuclear reactor in 1981, expressly renounced mutually assured destruction as a policy. He said that Israeli “morality” would never permit a retaliatory attack against an Iraqi city: “The children of Baghdad are not our enemy.”

A preventive attack, on the other hand, is always directed against a military target. Only one person—a nuclear technician—was killed in the attack Begin authorized.

It would appear to be ironic that Zakaria, and others who purport to be “doves”, would favor a mutually assured destruction policy that threatens the deaths of millions, over a preventive policy that targets military nuclear facilities. But it is not at all ironic, since such doves would be against actually carrying out the threat that is central to any credible policy of deterrence. For them, deterrence is a bluff—a hollow threat and the Iranians would see right through it.

That’s why President Obama is correct in renouncing containment and insisting that he isn’t bluffing when he says Iran will not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons, even if it takes a surgical military strike to stop them. I am not here arguing in favor of a preventive attack on Iran at this time. I am arguing against reliance on a policy of deterrence and containment, because I don’t believe it will work in relation to Iran, Israel and the United States.

What if deterrence and containment didn’t work, and Iran were to fire nuclear rockets at Israeli cities? Those who now advocate robust deterrence—instead of surgical prevention—would simply say to the remaining Israelis: “Woops. We were wrong. Sorry. We’ll build you a new Holocaust Museum.”

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Special Report March 21, 2012, 7:37 AM (GMT+02:00)

The 24-year old suspect of Algerian descent stated he belonged to al Qaeda and trained in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Several gunshots were heard after the raid began before dawn Wednesday, March 21, in a suburb 3 kilometers from the Ozar Hatorah school. Two policemen were wounded. His brother was arrested as his accomplice. The man barricaded in the house is believed to be the motorcyclist who also shot French paratroopers last Thursday. He was under police suspicion after that attack but not arrested.

The two brothers belonged to an extremist Islamic organization called Forsane Alizz. Police appear determined to capture the killer alive. The Toulouse police appear determined to capture the killer alive.

The coffins of the Jewish teacher, Yonathan Sandler, 30, his sons Arieh, 3 and Gavriel, 6 and the Ozar Hatorah principal’s daughter, Miriam Monstango, aged 8, were taken off the El Al plane which landed at Ben- Gurion, Wednesday morning.  French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe flew to Israel with the victims and will attend the funerals at 10.00 Monday morning in Jerusalem on Har Menuhot.

Germany warns Israel against attack on Iran – JPost – Defense.

By REUTERS

03/20/2012 20:33

Barak meets German counterpart de Maiziere who says Berlin selling Israel 6th military submarine, warns “military escalation would bring incalculable risks for Israel and region, to the detriment of Israel.”

By REUTERS

BERLIN – Germany said on Tuesday it will sell Israel a sixth military submarine and shoulder part of the cost, although it warned its ally that any military escalation with Iran could bring incalculable risks.

German Defense Minister Thomas de Maiziere said he shared Israel’s fear of a nuclear-armed Iran and he was convinced Tehran aimed to make nuclear weapons, but he called for caution.

“I recommend all sides show urgent restraint, both in their rhetoric and their action. A military escalation would bring incalculable risks for Israel and the region, to the detriment of Israel,” he told reporters at a press conference in Berlin with his Israeli counterpart Ehud Barak.

Barak by contrast said all options regarding Iran should remain on the table, apart from containment. “To accept a nuclear Iran would be inconceivable and unacceptable to the whole world,” he said.

Germany, which after the Nazi-perpetrated Holocaust is absolutely committed to Israel’s security, has championed international diplomatic campaigns to rein in Tehran. But Berlin has also criticized Israel’s settlement-building program.

“Israel can be sure of German solidarity in questions of its sovereign integrity and its existence … but it is important that Israel and its partners make moves towards a solution of the Middle East conflict,” de Maiziere said.

Israel operates three German-built Dolphin submarines, manufactured by Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW), a unit of ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems, and expects delivery of two more shortly. The vessels are considered a vanguard against foes like Iran.

Israel is threatening to take military action, with or without US support, if Iran is deemed to be continuing to defy pressure to curb its nuclear projects. Iran insists its nuclear energy program is purely non-military.

The Dolphins are small, diesel-powered submarines, designed for coastal patrols and equipped with 10 torpedo tubes.

Israel is widely assumed to have the Middle East’s only nuclear weapons, which it neither confirms nor denies. These could be onboard the Dolphins.

Israel’s purchase of a sixth submarine had been widely expected, although discussions over the degree of Germany’s contribution drew out the process.

“A further boat will be delivered to Israel and there will be financial help. It is part of the budget and is therefore a public action,” de Maiziere said.

Germany’s state budget for 2012 foresees spending of 135 million euros for “defense systems for Israel”, 70 million euros of which will fall this year.

Germany delivered the first three submarines between 1999-2000, two of which it paid for outright. In 2005 Germany struck a deal with Israel on another two submarines, this time paying a contribution of 333 million euros for both, amounting to about a third of the cost.

Tanks shell Damascus suburbs after rebel a… JPost – Middle East.

By REUTERS/Handout AMMAN – Two large suburbs of Damascus came under heavy tank bombardment on Wednesday following renewed Free Syrian Army attacks on forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad, opposition activists said.

Artillery and anti-aircraft gun barrages hit the suburbs of Harasta and Irbin, retaken from rebels by Assad’s forces two months ago, and army helicopters were heard flying over the area, on the eastern edge of the capital, the activists said.

Assad’s forces reasserted their control of Damascus suburbs in January after days of tank and artillery shelling that beat back rebels and lessened street protests against the 42-year rule of Assad and his father, the late President Hafez al-Assad.

The suburbs are a linked series of towns inhabited mostly by members of Syria’s Sunni Muslim majority, who have grown increasingly resentful at the domination of the Assads, who belong to the minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of Islam.

The Damascus assault and rebel fighters’ flight on Tuesday from the eastern city of Deir al-Zor mark the latest setbacks for the armed opposition, which also faced accusations of torture and brutality from a leading human rights body.

But as Assad made advances on the ground, he appeared to suffer a setback on the diplomatic front, with key-ally Moscow adopting a new, sharper tone after months of publicly standing by his government.

“We believe the Syrian leadership reacted wrongly to the first appearance of peaceful protests and … is making very many mistakes,” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told Russian radio station Kommersant-FM.

“This, unfortunately, has in many ways led the conflict to reach such a severe stage.”

Lavrov also spoke of a “future transition” period for Syria but continued to reject calls from most Western and Arab states for Assad to resign, saying this was “unrealistic”.

It was not immediately clear if the change in language would translate into a tangible difference in the way international powers, hitherto divided on Syria, might deal with the crisis.

“The change in the Russian position is one of tone, not of substance. Moscow still sees its support of Assad as part of a regional game, but it is losing the support of the Syrian people, which could backfire on it if the Syrian regime falls,” said Najati Tayyara, a prominent Syrian opposition figure.

The uprising started with non-violent demonstrations last March, but the situation deteriorated rapidly amid a ferocious army crackdown and there are now daily clashes between rebels and security forces around the country.

The United Nations says more than 8,000 people have been killed so far, but the toll is rising rapidly, with at least 31 men, women and children killed on Tuesday, the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported.

‘US looking to increase pressure… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

By REUTERS

03/20/2012 19:01

“We are making really substantial progress, and our hope is of course that it will alter Iran’s calculations about their interest in pursuing nuclear capabilities,” US Treasury Secretary Geithner says.

By REUTERS

WASHINGTON – The Obama administration is looking for more ways to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and is encouraged by the help it is getting from Tehran’s largest trading partners, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Tuesday.

“We are going to keep looking at ways we can bring more pressure to bear,” Geithner said at the House Financial Services Committee hearing to examine the state of the global financial system. “We are making really substantial progress, and our hope is of course that it will alter Iran’s calculations about their interest in pursuing nuclear capabilities.”

Countries are scrambling to reduce their Iranian oil imports in order to avoid harsh US sanctions that are to kick in at the end of June. If countries fail to significantly cut their reliance on Tehran’s oil, their financial institutions could be blocked from US markets.

Under pressure from the United States, Europe has imposed similar penalties on Iran’s central bank, and its regulators have ordered the biggest electronic payment system to block Iran’s state-owned banks from using its network to help transfer funds.

Geithner said support for US action extends far beyond Europe. “You’re seeing Japan, South Korea, China and countries around the world really moving with us to tighten up” sanctions against Iran, he said.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s top oil exporter, has said it will fill any oil supply gap created by the loss of Iranian oil – a move that helped the price of Brent crude on Tuesday fall to around $124 a barrel. Geithner said the statement from Saudi Arabia was a “very constructive signal.”

Peres sends New Year greeting to … JPost – Diplomacy & Politics.

By GREER FAY CASHMAN

03/19/2012 14:38

“May you know the taste of freedom, the taste of respect and the taste of human dignity,” president says in Farsi message.

By Avi Ohayon/GPO

After reiterating in many public forums that Israel has no quarrel with the Iranian people but is opposed to Iran’s extremist leadership, President Shimon Peres on Monday sent greetings for the Persian New Year to the population of Iran and its citizens living in exile.

The greetings were delivered via a recorded interview with veteran Farsi broadcaster Menashe Amir on Israel Radio’s Farsi program and on YouTube.

The Iranian New Year, known as Naw Ruz, falls on Tuesday.

It is also the new year of the Bahai faith, which originated in Iran, but whose followers there now face constant persecution and human rights abuses.

The Bahai community in Israel, though headquartered in Haifa, always holds its new year celebrations in Jerusalem and will do so again Tuesday evening.

Peres began his message by saying: “Dear Iranian citizens in all the places in which you may find yourselves, Happy New Year. I wish the Iranian people a truly joyful festival not only in terms of the greetings that emanate from your mouths but also in terms of what is in your hearts. May you have a genuine rather than a feigned holiday and may you know the taste of freedom, the taste of respect and the taste of human dignity.”

In the course of the interview, Peres addressed himself to the Iranian people, saying that it was still not too late to change the corrupt administration and to revive the glorious Persian tradition. The Iranian people are the heirs of a magnificent legacy of culture and values and not of bombs and rockets, he said.

It is inconceivable that a people with such a splendid history could allow an extreme group full of blind hatred and malice to bring so much shame on the country’s past, Peres said, questioning how the nation could allow the regime to instill so much terror and to deny people the freedom that is their right.

The president also referred to the younger generation, which is seeking to leave Iran’s dictatorship. Iran, which was once looked upon with favor by the world, today provokes great opposition, Peres said.

He attributed the unrest in Iran and in other parts of the region to the strong desire to escape the cycle of poverty. “Every child in the world, including Iran, when he gets up in the morning, is entitled to eat breakfast,” said Peres, who charged Tehran with investing all its money in nuclear capability while sentencing the population to poverty and starvation.

Peres told his listeners that if the Iranian people join forces to lift their voices in protest, the world will be behind them and will help them to recreate a genuinely Iranian Iran.

Towards the end of the interview, Peres recalled his visit to Iran in the days of the late Shah, at which time there were warm diplomatic relations between Iran and Israel.