WarSclerotic

Israel Hayom | Got our back? More like stabbing us in the back.

Israel Hayom | With targeted media leaks, US shoots down Israel’s options.

US leaks hamstring action on Iran—Benny Avni – NYPOST.com.

A campaign of press leaks, led by some Obama administration insiders, is harming Israel’s and America’s ability to act militarily to end Iran’s nuclear quest.

Washington officials and sympathetic media plainly intend the campaign to erode public support for a military attack on Iran’s nuclear installations. But reports on Israeli military methods, capabilities and alliances are actively aiding the Iranian regime.

You may have seen some of the headlines: “Congress Sez Iran Could Recover From Israeli Attack Within Six Months”; “Hundreds of Americans Will Die in the Aftermath of Iran Attack”; “Israel’s Secret Staging Ground for Attacking Iran.”

AP

Netanyahu: Unlikely to be moved by Times misreport.

Israelis now believe that this public, noisy campaign has replaced an earlier (and much quieter) attempt by top Obama officials to talk directly to Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu and his inner security circle, and persuade them to scrap any plan for an air attack on Iran’s nuclear installations at least until after Nov. 6.

Dennis Ross, until recently Obama’s top Iran adviser, told me yesterday he didn’t believe the administration is conducting an “orchestrated” leaking campaign. But he acknowledged that “some individuals, who don’t want Israel to do this,” may be using leaks for their purposes.

Yesterday Amir Oren, a columnist for the left-leaning Haaretz, predicted that, as a result of an earlier New York Times report on a US military simulated war game, the Netanyahu government will postpone its “capricious” plan for a massive aerial attack on Iran’s nuclear installations until at least next year.

The purely speculative column went viral on foreign-policy wonks’ Twitter accounts, cited as “proof” that “bluffing” Israel won’t attack before November’s US elections.

But why would Israel be swayed? The Times spun the results of the “classified” exercise like a pretzel. As Commentary’s Omri Ceren noted, the newspaper made it sound like the gamers concluded that at least 200 Americans would die if Israel attacks Iran — and then America would be forced to join the war. In fact, the exercise looked at what would happen if an Israeli attack led to an Iranian assault on US warships that caused 200 casualties. In real life, that’s a huge “if.”

To be sure, newspapers’ advocacy campaigns on behalf of this or that policy have their place — and leaks are many reporters’ bread and butter. That’s what we do.

But when administration officials so liberally leak military secrets, they risk seriously damaging their own goals.

Take a story that Foreign Policy broke on its Web site Wednesday night, detailing increasingly tight military cooperation between Israel and one of Iran’s neighbors, Azerbaijan. Israel, went the account, secretly plans to use Azeri airfields as a major staging ground — either before or after an attack on Iran.

The FP story was based on four unnamed “senior diplomats” and “intelligence officers.” One said: “We’re watching what Iran does closely,” but “we’re now watching what Israel is doing in Azerbaijan. And we’re not happy about it.” Written by veteran Israel basher Mark Perry, it was clearly designed by his similarly inclined sources to alert Iran to a military plan — one that may not exist.

As Ron Ben Yishai, one of Israel’s best-connected military analysts, wrote in y-Net yesterday, “the United States is leaking information to the media in order to avert an Israeli strike in Iran.” But the campaign is telling Tehran’s intelligence more than it ever hoped: how much Washington and Israel know about the secret nuclear program, what are Israel’s and America’s “red lines,” how a future attack might be conducted.

“This is not how one should be treating an ally, even if this is a relationship between a superpower and a satellite state,” Ben Yishai concludes.

It’s also at odds with Obama’s belief, stated at AIPAC this month, that Israel has the “sovereign right” to “defend itself, by itself.”

The leaking campaign provides Iran with too many details about America’s capabilities — weakening Obama’s (or a future president’s) ability to fulfill his promise to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon by using “all options on the table.”

Twitter: @bennyavnicwM1vfs

israel today | Israel News | More signs Israel may strike Iran soon – israel today | Israel News.

NewsRoomAmerica.com – Bolton Accuses Administration of Leaking Israeli Planning Along Iran Border.

By Newsroom America Staff at 1:41 pm Eastern

Former diplomat John Bolton on Thursday accused the Obama administration of leaking information about Israeli planning along Iran’s border, possibly as a prelude to a strike against Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure.

Bolton, who served as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations in the George W. Bush administration, pointed to a story in Foreign Policy Magazine that said Israel has gained access to airbases in Azerbaijan, which borders Iran on the north, possibly as a staging area for a future attack.

“I think this leak today is part of the administration’s campaign against an Israeli attack,” he told Fox News. The White House did not respond to the charge, Fox News reported.

Speaking to the network later, Bolton – who is a Fox News contributor – said he did not have hard evidence to support his claim. But he cited comments from Defense Secretary Leon Panetta in February, who said he believed the Israelis could strike Iran as soon as April.

If that’s true, Bolton said it would be “entirely consistent” for the administration to want to stop that, based on its earlier stated opposition to any Israeli strike.

Foreign Policy quoted high-ranking administration officials the magazine identified as “high-level sources … inside the U.S. government.” It specifically mentioned “four senior diplomats and military intelligence officers.”

One of the unnamed officials told the magazine the U.S. government was “watching” the Israeli activity and was “not happy about it.”

“Clearly, this is an administration-orchestrated leak,” Bolton said. “This is not a rogue CIA guy saying I think I’ll leak this out.”

“It’s just unprecedented to reveal this kind of information about one of your own allies,” he added.

The FP article said Azeri officials have denied granting Israel any rights to airbases, saying the country is a friend of Iran.

Still, relations between both nations have frayed, in recent years, FP reported, even as relations with Israel have been improving.

“Israel’s deepening relationship with the Baku government was cemented in February by a $1.6 billion arms agreement that provides Azerbaijan with sophisticated drones and missile-defense systems,” the magazine reported.

“At the same time, Baku’s ties with Tehran have frayed: Iran presented a note to Azerbaijan’s ambassador last month claiming that Baku has supported Israeli-trained assassination squads targeting Iranian scientists, an accusation the Azeri government called ‘a slander,'” it said.

© 2012 Newsroom America.

UK hints at easing sanctions if … JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

By REUTERS

03/29/2012 23:28

Hague says big powers determined to stop Iran getting bomb, warns Assad he faces growing isolation,

By REUTERS/Jeff Overs-BBC/handout

LONDON – Iran should not doubt major powers’ determination to stop it getting a nuclear bomb, British Foreign Secretary William Hague said on Thursday, but he also hinted that sanctions could be eased if Iran gave ground in a long-running nuclear dispute.

In a major foreign policy speech, Hague also warned Syrian President Bashar Assad and his allies, engaged in a bloody crackdown on a year-long revolt, that they faced more punitive sanctions, international isolation and possible prosecution unless they allowed a democratic transition to unfold.

Looking ahead to talks on Iran’s nuclear program, set to resume next month after a gap of more than a year, Hague said: “We approach these talks with sincerity and a genuine desire for a breakthrough. This can only come if Iran enters the talks in a new spirit.”

The Islamic Republic has said it expects to reopen talks with six major powers, including Britain, on April 13 and that Turkey has offered to host the meeting.

Iran and the West are locked in confrontation over its nuclear energy program, which Tehran says is peaceful but Western powers suspect is aimed at developing an atomic bomb.

Assuring Tehran that the powers do not seek regime change, Hague said: “We look to the Iranian government to prove to the world that their nuclear program is for peaceful energy, not for nuclear weapons, and to give up any plans to acquire them.”

Noting that Iran faced unprecedented sanctions, including a European Union oil import ban due to take effect on July 1, Hague appeared to hint that Iranian concessions could be rewarded with an easing of sanctions.

“It is in the Iranian government’s power to end this isolation, and if they negotiate seriously on the concerns over its nuclear program we will respond,” he said in the text of a speech to an annual Lord Mayor’s banquet in London.

Russia has advocated a “step-by-step” plan in which sanctions would be eased in return for verifiable steps by Tehran to defuse concerns about its nuclear intentions.

Continued resolve

However, Hague said that if the Iranians “do not seize this opportunity, they should not doubt our resolve to prevent nuclear proliferation in the Middle East”.

Growing tensions over Iran’s nuclear work have led to speculation that Israel or the United States could launch a pre-emptive military strike.

On Syria, Hague said Assad and his allies “must be left in no doubt that if there is not a political transition that reflects the will of the Syrian people, then they will be shunned by the international community and we will close every door to them. They will face still more sanctions.”

“And they will be pursued by mechanisms of justice,” he said, calling the behavior of Assad’s government “futile” and “morally indefensible”.

United Nations’ officials have compiled a list of Syrian figures suspected of crimes against humanity during attempts to suppress an uprising in which, according to UN figures, government forces have killed 9,000 people.

But opposition from Russia and China means the accused are unlikely to appear in the dock at the international war crimes court any time soon.

Hague said he expects a “Friends of Syria” meeting in Istanbul on Sunday to adopt new measures to increase pressure on Assad, support Syria’s opposition and boost the mission of Kofi Annan, the special UN and Arab League envoy on Syria.

Earlier on Thursday, Britain said it would double non-military aid to Assad’s opponents and expand the scope of the assistance offered, possibly including secure telephones to help activists communicate more easily.

Hague said it was in Britain’s “vital national interest” to help Arab Spring democracy movements to succeed, because of the democratic, economic and security benefits they would bring. And he said Britain would engage with new political parties in the region, “including those drawing their inspiration from Islam”.

The Arab Spring has led to a sharp rise in the influence of Islamists in several North African countries.

Attacking Iran: Did US just torpedo Israeli deal for a base in Azerbaijan? – CSMonitor.com.

Israel is developing a ‘secret staging ground’ in Azerbaijan for a possible attack on Iran, reports Foreign Policy magazine. US officials aren’t happy with that, and may have leaked the story.

By Brad Knickerbocker, Staff writer / March 29, 2012

The three-way tension between the United States, Israel, and Iran became tenser this week with a widely cited report that Israel is developing a “secret staging ground” in Iran’s neighbor to the north – Azerbaijan – for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The three-way tension between the United States, Israel, and Iran became tenser this week with a widely cited report that Israel is developing a “secret staging ground” in Iran’s neighbor to the north – Azerbaijan – for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Tehran has accused Azerbaijan of working with Israel’s spy services suspected of assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists, and individuals accused of plotting terrorist attacks with Iran have been arrested in Azerbaijan.

For their part, officials in Azerbaijan deny granting aircraft landing rights to Israel combat aircraft.

“This information is absurd and groundless,” defense ministry spokesman Teymur Abdullayev told Agence France Presse (AFP).

“We have stated on numerous occasions and we reiterate that there will be no actions against Iran … from the territory of Azerbaijan,” presidential official Ali Hasanov told journalists in Baku, AFP reported.

So far, there’s been no official comment on the Foreign Policy article by Israeli officials, who may be just as happy to increase the psychological pressure on Iran.

Early this month, President Obama made clear his position on Iran’s nuclear potential, both in meetings with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and in his speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the prominent pro-Israel lobbying organization.

“Iran’s leaders should understand that I do not have a policy of containment,” Obama told AIPAC. “I have a policy to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.”

“I will take no options off the table, and I mean what I say,” Obama said, adding for dramatic effect, “There should not be a shred of doubt by now: when the chips are down, I have Israel’s back.”

Still, the US continues to act as a diplomatic brake of sorts on any rush by Israel to attack Iran. Which may be why John Bolton – a noted hawk who served as UN ambassador in the most recent Bush administration – could be right when he says that administration officials leaked their concerns about any basing agreement between Israel and Azerbaijan.

“We’re watching what Iran does closely,” one of the US intelligence sources was quoted as saying in the Foreign Policy article. “But we’re now watching what Israel is doing in Azerbaijan. And we’re not happy about it.”

DEBKA.

Barack Obama and Tayyip Erdogan

US President Barack Obama’s message to incoming Russian President Vladimir Putin through an open mike in Seoul must have reached Tehran like the rest of the world, even before Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan carried it in person to Iranian leaders Wednesday, March 28.
“On all these issues, but particularly missile defense, this can be solved. But it’s important for him (Putin) to give me space. This is my last election,” said Obama to Dmitry Medvedev Monday, March 26. Bearing this message to his successor was also probably Medvedev’s last diplomatic commission as Russian president.
He nodded as his left hand was clasped in Obama’s left hand, saying, “I will tell it to Vladimir.”
There were no open microphones to record the commission Obama placed on Erdogan during their two hour, 15-minute long conversation in the South Korean capital a day earlier.
And so DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources don’t have its exact text. But they have enough information to conclude that Obama’s message to the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei resembled his request of Putin: This (the nuclear issue) can be solved, but it’s important (for Khamenei) to give him, Obama, space, because this is his last election.
Obama’s struggle to adjourn key external policy decisions until he has more leeway in a second term as president met with little sympathy in Tehran.

Khamenei wants broad agenda for April talks – not just nuclear controversy

According to the information reaching DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources, Erdogan was already in receipt of a tough demand from the Iranian Supreme Leader before he set out for Seoul.
He was directed by Khamenei in person to inform the US president when they met that he is flatly opposed to the coming meeting on April 13 between Iran and the Six Powers (the five permanent UN Security Council members + Germany) being devoted to Iran’s nuclear program and nothing else.
Khamenei demands that the agenda be wider in scope and aim for comprehensive deals on all the topics at issue between Iran and the United States.
(The last DEBKA-Net-Weekly issue, No. 534, elaborated on the nine issues Khamenei wants addressed: See “Iran Leery of Secret Talks with US: No Practical Results from Secret Diplomacy with Washington Expected in Tehran.”)
When they sat down to talk in the South Korean capital, President Obama heard the Turkish premier out. But, outside the Syrian issue, he simply ignored Khamenei’s demands and dictated the following points for Erdogan to put before the Iranian leader:
1. Tehran must come to the forthcoming talks next month ready to show it is seriously and genuinely open to a compromise deal on its nuclear program;

Obama: Iran’s nuclear program frozen – not dismantled

2. A negative attitude on Iran’s part would result in President Obama merging the back-channel US-Iranian dialogue with the on-the-table diplomatic negotiations starting next month.
The international forum would then mutate into the overall framework for the direct US-Iranian track. (DEBKA-Net-Weekly 534 also reported that Washington was satisfied with the secret talks it has been conducting with Tehran and was ready to wind down sanctions.)
Obama did not specify whether in those circumstances, the direct secret track would be shut down, put on hold or allowed to lapse.
He asked the Turkish prime minister to inform the Supreme Leader that the Russian and Chinese presidents, Hu Jintao and Medvedev, had agreed to go along with this position if Khamenei found it acceptable.
3. Any deal would require a commitment from Khamenei to freeze – though not dismantle – all aspects of Iran’s nuclear program from the moment an accord was reached. No new projects must be initiated and all progress arrested.
For example: The centrifuges already functioning in the Fordo underground plant near Qom must not be expanded; research on nuclear weapons and the construction of models discontinued; and the transition of uranium enrichment from 3.5 percent grade to 20 percent halted.
But they would all remain in place.

Obama wants to hear Iranian rhetoric kinder to America

4. President Obama asked Erdogan to convey a personal message from him to the Iranian leader:
He was favorably impressed with the ayatollah’s comments in the New Year speech he broadcast live on state television Tuesday, March 20: “We do not have nuclear weapons and we will not build them,” said the ayatollah. “But in the face of aggression from enemies, whether from America or the Zionist regime, we will defend ourselves with attacks on the same level as our enemies attack us.”
Obama also sent a reply to another Khamenei remark. Addressing thousands of pilgrims gathered at the Imam Reza Shrine in Mashhad, the Supreme Leader said: “The Americans are making a grave mistake if they think that by making threats they will destroy the Iranian nation.”
To this, the US President answered that neither he nor America entertained any such intention.
5. Tehran must change the hostile anti-US tone of is speeches and publications and stop calling America an enemy and the Great Satan. In place of antipathy, Obama would deeply appreciate a series of helpful comments coming from Iranian leaders and news reports out of Tehran, especially if they highlighted an improved Islamic Republican attitude towards the United States as a result of his administration’s polices.
Erdogan was asked to hold up as an example of the sort of remark Obama had in mind the words of praise Khamenei offered President Obama on March 8, “for promoting diplomacy rather than war” as a solution to Tehran’s nuclear ambition.
More of this sort of rhetoric would be welcome, the Turkish prime minister was directed to inform Tehran.
None of the messages he carried explicitly mentioned the US presidential campaign, DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources note. However, the rewards accruing to Tehran from extending a helping hand for Obama’s reelection were evident in the subtext.

Obama’s path to a nuclear accommodation faces many obstacles

Benign Iranian references to America would give Obama the chance to credit his foreign policy with kudos for an important breakthrough to the Islamic Republic. The improved climate surrounding relations would reduce the hazards of a war being launched against Iran. By helping to get him returned for a second term, Tehran would put the US president in place for the pursuit of policies agreed between him and Khamenei in the course of their secret dialogue.
6. Erdogan was asked to explain the US President’s strategy of drawing a close linkage between the shifts in US policy on Iran and its nuclear program, on the one hand, and the Syrian crisis, on the other. This approach had guided Obama’s hand in his thus far successful moves to block Muslim-Arab-Western military intervention in Syria.
The US president believes that the coalition working for Syria of Washington, Moscow, Beijing and Tehran and the United Nations (UN and Arab League envoy, the former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan was mentioned in this regard) could be equally successful in resolving the Iranian nuclear controversy.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly notes that the runaround the Iranians gave the Turkish prime minister in Tehran Wednesday before he was granted an audience with the supreme leader (see separate article in this issue) was not an encouraging augury of Iran’s good intentions.
Obama’s path to a negotiated settlement of the dispute over Iran’s nuclear program will not be strewn with roses. Turkey has gone into action on its own account and the Israelis are unwilling to stand by and wait upon the outcome of his back-door dialogue with the Iranian leader, as will be shown in two separate articles in this issue.

DEBKA.

Moshe Ya’alon

Ears pricked up in Western intelligence circles dealing with Iran over a couple of loaded comments made by Binyamin Netanyahu’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Strategic Affairs Moshe Ya’alon in an interview with the local Army Radio station this week.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly presents the exchange verbatim:
Interviewer: How important are the nuclear talks between Iran and the six world powers starting in mid-April?
Ya’alon: The talks will show whether sanctions have a chance of working or that the Iranians are persisting in their maneuvers while moving forward toward a military nuclear capability.
Interviewer: Does this mean the Netanyahu government might be just weeks away from launching a war against Iran?“
Ya’alon: “No. Look, we have to see. …The (Iranian nuclear) project is not static — whether that means progress, or sometimes, retreat. All sorts of things are happening there.
“Sometimes there are explosions, sometimes there are worms there, viruses, all kinds of things like that.”

Tehran’s SOS for cyber help against new malworm

Reporters took Ya’alon remarks as a reference to the troubles bedeviling Iran’s nuclear program in the past three years, such as the Stuxnet virus which stymied core computer systems and the assassinations of senior scientists. They assumed he was hinting at a new flare-up.
They just happened to hit the nail on the head: Iran is under a new cyber attack.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s intelligence and Iranian sources disclose now that, in the second week of March, the Iranians were stunned to encounter a new and unfamiliar mutation of the Stuxnet malworm, whose initial attack was eventually overcome with great difficulty. The virus had slithered underground to infect the computerized command and control centers installed for safety against air and missile attack in a fortified nuclear facility at Fordow, near Qom.
The strange alien had infiltrated the P1 centrifuges for enriching uranium just moved in from Natanz, as well as the new, advanced IR4 machines.
American security firms report that a sample of the new virus had reached them for analysis. They did not say where it came from or whether it was the same malworm which invaded the computer-based systems at Fordow.
Our sources suggest Iran may have urgently sent samples for testing and a cure to Russian and European cyber security firms, which passed them on to American experts.

Stuxnet or Duqu – or both?

Some American cyber warfare buffs suggest the new troublemaker is a form of the Duqu spy program discovered last fall, which was programmed to gather intelligence on industrial control systems for possible use in a future Stuxnet-like attack.
They deduce from the similarity in code that whoever wrote Duqu either wrote Stuxnet too, or had access to the powerful worm’s source code, which was never released in the public domain. Last November, the original Duqu was suspected to have infected systems in several countries, such as Vietnam and France, as well as Iran.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources are not at all sure that Duqu is Iran’s culprit. They say it is far more likely that an advanced mutation of Stuxnet has returned to the offensive, meaning that Iran’s nuclear program is under its third cyber assault in two and-a-half years.
This theory is of sweeping significance: If true, it would mean that the hugely risky option of striking the Fordow plant by air or with missiles may be less urgent than believed; that the Americans can stop developing more and more powerful Joint Direct Attack Munition GBU 31/32/38 bunker busters; and that the US and Israel can stop arguing about whether the Israeli Air Force is capable of disabling Fordow and other deep-buried nuclear projects.
If new malworms are indeed on the march, Iran’s nuclear program networks are already under malicious attack by an enemy within, one that is capable of reaching nuclear weapons plants in the deepest of bunkers.

Is Israel’s IDF Cyber Brigade at work?

The inference is that Israel has unleashed a new cyber attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons-making systems with the immediate object of disrupting their transfer lock, stock and barrel to impregnable, underground sites. Those sites were dubbed “immunity zones” by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources believe this cyber attack – if one is really afoot – is only just beginning; Iran is about to be confronted with far more extensive disruptions of the program’s functionality in the coming weeks.
Our military sources say that, if is successful, this offensive will be the most spectacular to have been mounted in the short annals of modern cyber warfare. Some American and other military buffs talk about it in terms of a revolution in military war doctrine, comparable to the advent of fighter jet bombers in the 1950s which revolutionized air force potency and tactics.
The back-room figure pulling the strings of Israel’s cyber force is former Military Intelligence Chief Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, who created the top-secret Israel Defense Forces Cyber Brigade.
A great deal is riding on the efficacy of the new malworm offensive for compromising Iran’s nuclear weapons program. As much depends on the extent of the damage it causes as on the conditions Ayatollah Ali Khamenei decides to lay down for entering into meaningful negotiations on the future of that program with the six world powers next month.