WarSclerotic

Thank you, Iron Dome – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Op-ed: Without innovative anti-rocket system, IDF would be operating inside Gaza by now

Alex Fishman

The current escalation in the Gaza region was planned in advance. The IDF in fact set up an “ambush,” while the Southern Command prepared thoroughly days ahead of the current flare-up.

The Air Force deployed in advance the three Iron Domebatteries and covered the Gaza Strip skies with a reinforced presence of aircraft. The results are commensurate with these preparations: With the exception of several wounded civilians caught up in the fire while playing basketball, there have been no casualties thus far.

Moreover, all the rockets that were supposed to land in populated areas were intercepted. This impressive military balance sheet grants the political leadership flexibility and the ability to take decisions free from domestic and international pressure.

Indeed, the orders to the army are as follows: Should the rocket fire continue beyond the point Israel earmarked, the IDF will be given the green light to expand its activities against the Strip, including ground operations. This red line will be affected by the number of casualties and the stamina of a million and a half Israeli citizens in southern Israel whose daily lives are paralyzed.

Meanwhile, a lesson drawn from past experience prompted a change in the utilization of Iron Dome, with the new tactics resulting in an impressive outcome in intercepting barrages of five to six rockets.

Now, Israel is presenting Hamas’ government with a leadership dilemma: In an era where Hamas wishes to portray itself as a pragmatic political party in the eyes of the world, will it have the power and desire to restrain Islamic Jihad fire that also threatens Hamas’ own hegemony in the Strip?

Blatant Israeli message

In Israel’s view, Hamas’ responsibility for events is not only ministerial. The Shin Bet has identified the group’s duplicity a while ago. Hamas’ military wing never stopped its terror activity but is hiding behind the attacks of “subsidiaries” bearing different names.

Israeli officials decided not to make it easy on Hamas given the above the dilemma and keep pressing until the fire abates. The current round of fighting is a blatant Israeli signal: There is no immunity, even in Gaza, to Palestinian terror activity undertaken via the Sinai Peninsula. Indeed, Sinai is a major terror front, and Israel will not tolerate a situation whereby Gaza serves as a base for Sinai attacks.

And on a final note, something about Iron dome. This system has become a political-diplomatic tool, just like any other national defense system such as the fences on the Egyptian and Lebanese borders. At this time, our political leadership can order counter-terror operations in the Strip and sustain fire until taking a decision thanks to Iron Dome’s interception capabilities.

Hence, the system must not be undermined in the framework of the current budgetary battles. At this time, Israel possesses three batteries that are deployed, for the time being, in Ashdod, Ashkelon and Beersheba. A fourth battery needed to protect Gaza-region residents will only be received in July of this year.

Overall, Israel needs at least nine batteries. The fifth one will be received at the beginning of 2013 and a sixth one in the middle of 2013. This will exhaust the currently available budget. Yet those who curbed the flow of funds must realize that had it not been for Iron Dome, the IDF would be inside the Gaza Strip by now, with dozens of casualties on both sides.

Report: US considering military intervention in Syria – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Washington Post says US may arm opposition forces, send troops to guard a humanitarian corridor for rebels, or mount air assault on Syrian air defenses

Yitzhak Benhorin

WASHINGTON – The Obama administration and its allies and international partners have begun serious discussions about potential military involvement in Syria, the Washington Post reported on Sunday. On Monday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will meet with her Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrovin in New York to secure Russian support for Western plans in Syria.

The Washington Post said that possibilities include directly arming opposition forces, sending troops to guard a humanitarian corridor or “safe zone” for the rebels, or mounting an air assault on Syrian air defenses.

While Saudi Arabia and Qatar confessed their desire to arm the Syrian opposition, Washington still has concerns about the rebels. It is estimated that the US will lead efforts to impose a no-fly zone in Syria, if the decision is made, but that it would take Washington several weeks to reposition the forces.

It was also reported that recent US intelligence reports suggest President Bashar Assad commands a formidable army that is unlikely to turn on him, an inner circle that has stayed loyal and an elite class that still supports his rule.

At the moment, the US is focusing on providing humanitarian aid to Syrian civilians and opposition forces. The Americans understand that the Syrian conflict is unlikely to be resolved in a peaceful manner and that prospects of a civil war may affect the entire region.

Iron Dome intercepts Gaza rockets over Ashdod, as escalation continues for third day – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

IDF conducts three strikes in Gaza overnight and Sunday morning, killing two Palestinians; Iron Dome has intercepted 33 rockets since Friday.

By Gili Cohen , Yanir Yagna, Avi Issacharoff, Barak Ravid and Reuters

Ten rockets fired from the Gaza Strip were intercepted by the Iron Dome system in the Ashdod area on Sunday morning, as the escalation in Israel’s south continued for a third day.

Overnight and on Sunday morning, the IDF conducted three strikes in Gaza, in which two Palestinians, including a teenager, were killed.

	Iron Dome anti-rocket battery in action, March 11, 2012.
	Photo by: AP

A weapons manufacturing site and a rocket launching squad were among the targets of the IDF strikes.

More than 110 rockets have been fired at Israel from Gaza since Friday. 33 rockets have been shot down by the Iron Dome, which is designed to only intercept rockets identified as heading toward populated areas.

On Sunday morning, a rocket exploded in open territory in the Ramat Eshkol Regional Council, causing no injuries or damage.

Schools was called off in Sunday in Ashkelon, Be’er Sheva, Ashdod and other regional councils in Israel’s south, affecting more than 200,000 students.

So far, 17 Palestinians, 16 of them militants, have been killed in the latest round of Israel-Gaza border violence that began on Friday.

A Thai worker in an Israeli community near the Gaza border was seriously wounded in a rocket attack on Friday.

The rocket salvos from Gaza began on Friday after the Israel Air Force launched a strike in Gaza that killed the leader of the Popular Resistance Committees, Zuhir al-Qaisi, who was believed to be planning a large terror attack on Israel’s southern border.

On Saturday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with regional council heads in Israel’s south and said Israel will continue to strike whoever plans attacks on Israeli citizens.

Barak: Iron Dome should be made national eme… JPost – Headlines.

No one wants another Gaza war – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

It may take a few more days before calm is restored, but neither Israel nor Hamas seem interested in an escalation that would lead to an Israeli ground operation in Gaza.

By Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel

Fifteen Gazan Palestinians killed, more than 100 rockets and mortar shells fired at Israel from the Gaza Strip, nearly one million Israelis in the area under attack – the weekend numbers are the worst since Operation Cast Lead in January 2009. Nevertheless, while it may take a few more days before calm is restored, neither Israel nor Hamas seem interested in an escalation that would culminate in an Israeli ground operation in Gaza. Barring mass civilian casualties, the bets are on ending the latest round of violence within a few days.

This round, like so many before, began with specific intelligence on the Israeli side. This time, it was about a plan by the Popular Resistance Committees in the Strip to duplicate its successful operation last August, when eight Israeli civilians and military personnel were killed in an attack on Route 12, near Eilat.

	Children in a Be’er Sheva bomb shelter, March 10, 2012.
	Photo by: Eliyahu Hershkovitz

Israel responded by killing the plan’s mastermind – Zuhair al-Qaissi, a commander of the armed wing of the Popular Resistance Committees – despite knowing this would heat up the border with the Gaza Strip for a few days at the least.

A second terrorist died in the Israeli air strike that killed al-Qaissi. Most of the other 13 Palestinians killed in the course of the weekend belonged to launch units, and died while trying to fire rockets or on their way to launch sites.

Palestinian sources confirmed that all 15 deaths on their side were militants. The absence of civilian deaths greatly reduces the impetus on the Palestinian side to retaliate, although it must be noted that if the cross border violence continues, civilian casualties will be almost inevitable.

The good news is that Hamas has no interest in Operation Cast Lead, the sequel. The bad news is that Hamas has less control over the situation than in the past. Islamic Jihad, with avid support from Iran, has accumulated its own stores of deadly rockets. The resistance committees wants to get back at Israel for killing two of its leaders. The two groups were responsible for most of the fire directed at Israel in the past two days.

A report issued on Saturday by Palestinian Authority news agency WAFA points to a weakening of Hamas’ iron grip in the Gaza Strip. The news agency said Hamas asked Egypt to help rein in Islamic Jihad and the Popular Resistance Committees. Hamas does not want Gazans to view it as Israel’s “border guard,” but in the clash between the desire to maintain resistance to Israel and to remain in control of the Strip, Hamas has repeatedly chosen to avoid direct military confrontation with Israel.

For several months now, Hamas has faced growing opposition in the Strip. Islamic Jihad, once an ally in its conflict with the PA, is now the regime’s main challenger. Iran is the focus of the friction between Hamas and Islamic Jihad: While the former has slackened its ties with Tehran and Syria, Islamic Jihad leaders in the Strip have remained loyal to Tehran and to their patron in Damascus. At least 10 of the 15 people who died in the Israeli weekend air strikes were Jihad members; their funerals turned into recruiting sessions for the organization.

As in August, this time too Israel is conducting itself with extreme caution where Egypt is concerned. Since the fall of the Mubarak regime last year and the elimination of the last shreds of Egyptian control over Sinai, the peninsula has become the backyard of the Gazan terror organizations. The benefits for them are clear: operational freedom of action, a long and unprotected border with Israel, and plausible deniability – yesterday the resistance committees claimed yet again that they had nothing to do with planning a terror attack from Sinai.

With Egypt entering the equation, Israel’s room for maneuver declined dramatically. The Israel Defense Forces cannot take preemptive action within Egyptian territory, and if Jerusalem decides on a ground operation in the Gaza Strip, it risks further destabilizing its relations with Cairo.

Egyptian intelligence is supposed to be responsible for reimposing the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, but today’s Cairo speaks and looks very different from that of a year ago. Egypt yesterday slammed Israel’s “dangerous escalation” in the Strip. The country’s Muslim Brotherhood-led parliament will not stand idly by if the situation there spirals out of control.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 10, 2012, 10:47 PM (GMT+02:00)

SA-7 shoulder-carried anti-air missiles

The Palestinian Jihad Islami escalated its attacks on a dozen Israel towns and villages Saturday, firing up to 100 rockets on the second day of their revenge for Israel’s targeted killing of Zuheir al-Qaisi, head of the Popular Resistance Committees in Gaza, before he could carry out his second terrorist attack from Sinai. The volleys Saturday, March 10, included Grad multiple rocket launchers mounted on vehicles and SA-7 anti-air rockets, the Russian version of the American Stinger, smuggled from Libya.

Israel’s military kept its operations for suppressing those attacks low key although Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz had vowed to hit back hard.  Both Gantz and Defense Minister Ehud Barak who toured the afflicted locations warned that the current round of missile fire from Gaza was not over. Barak added that the threat of another attack from Sinai was not over either.
In expectation of further escalation, an Iron Dome anti-missile battery was posted in Ashdod Saturday night. The two batteries in Beersheba and Ashdod were estimated to have intercepted 25-30 incoming Palestinian rockets. Police commissioner Yohanan Danino raised the terror alert nationwide to one level short of the highest, while southern Israel remained at top preparedness for the missile barrages to continue.

Schools in Beersheba (Israel’s seventh largest city of 200,000), Ashkelon, Ashdod, Gan Yavneh, Netivot, Kiryat Gat and Ofakim are closed Sunday until further notice, keeping hundreds of thousands of schoolchildren at home and close to bomb shelters.
Citizens were given a Homeland Command number to call in emergencies: 1207.

Israeli air strikes killed 15 Palestinian combatants in two days – all of them combatants. Twelve were members of Jihad Islami missile teams; the rest Resistance Committees operatives. The last of eight air force attacks hit a missile launcher and crew in the northern Gaza town of Beit Hanun Saturday night.

So far, although 18 civilians were injured, there have been no fatalities or direct hits to Israeli homes or buildings.

However the terrorists are constantly widening the radius of locations within range by procuring increasingly sophisticated weaponry.

At the same time, debkafile’s military sources report, Israeli leaders are this time holding the IDF back from an all-out offensive to relieve a million civilians living under on-and-off harassment for more than a decade out of three considerations:

1.  Washington is engaged in secret diplomacy through the Egyptian military junta to get a ceasefire in place before the violence escalates any further – and Israel is obliged to employ more effective measures to stop it. Egypt on the quiet is trying to force the Palestinian Jihad Islami to stop shooting missiles, without much result. This is not surprising given that this Palestinian group was created by Iran which funds and arms it.
2.  The IDF command was taken by surprise by the extreme reprisal triggered by the death of the Committees’ chief Zuheir al-Qaisi, one of the planners of the terrorist ambush of August 2011 on Highway 12 to Eilat which killed 8 Israelis close to the Israeli border with Egyptian Sinai.
The day before he was taken out, two mortars were fired from Gaza and, before that ,missiles kept coming at a slow trickle all the time.
3.  The Israeli Air Force is forced to be a lot more cautious since various Palestinian groups, including Hamas, obtained from Libya large quantities of shoulder-launched SA-7 anti-air missiles (Man Portable Air Defense Systems or MANPADS) which are the Russian version of the American Stinger. Israeli jets must first demolish these rockets before they regain a free hand for counter-terror operations in the Hamas-ruled enclave.
Last week, because of the new menace, Israeli commercial airlines were told to stop flying ageing ATR 72 and ATR 42 turboprop planes, because the “C Music” counter-missile devices equipped with high-tech sensors and computers are designed for jets – not these old workhorses.

The advanced weaponry flowing into the Gaza Strip from Libya in the past six months (first reported by debkafile on Nov. 11, 2011) is becoming increasingly important in the terrorist war Palestinian terrorists are waging against Israel from the Gaza Strip. Furthermore, Tehran has supplied the Gaza extremists under its auspices with its own Fajr rockets which can reach Tel Aviv.