WarSclerotic

Vodpod videos no longer available.

Soldier found dead; unrelated to hostile activity – Israel News, Ynetnews.

An IDF soldier was found dead in a car in the Gaza vicinity. His death was unrelated to the recent escalation in the south. His family has been informed and Investigating Military Police are investigating the circumstances surrounding his death. (Yoav Zitun)

International push to end Syria crisis stalls – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

(Surprise, surprise… – JW )

UN envoy Kofi Annan leaves country without securing a ceasefire; government forces shell Idlib and Homs.

By The Associated Press

An international push to end Syria’s conflict stalled on Sunday as UN envoy Kofi Annan left Damascus without a ceasefire and President Bashar Assad’s forces pounded opposition areas and clashed with rebels throughout the country.

Western and Arab powers are struggling for ways to stem the bloodshed in the year-old conflict while both the regime and the opposition reject dialogue. Former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan appeared to make little progress during two visits with Assad during his first trip to Syria as the joint UN-Arab League envoy.

	UN special envoy Kofi Annon meeting with Syrian Grand Mufti Ahmad Badr Al Din Hassoun in Damascus on Sunday, March 11, 2012.
	Photo by: AP

Annan was seeking an immediate ceasefire to allow for humanitarian aid and the start of a dialogue between all parties on a political solution. After meeting with Assad on Sunday, Annan said he had presented steps to ease the crisis, but gave no details.

“Once it’s agreed, it will help launch the process and help end the crisis on the ground,” he told reporters. He called for “reforms that will create a strong foundation for a democratic Syria … a peaceful, stable, pluralistic and prosperous society, based on the rule of law and respect for human rights.”

But he said a ceasefire must come first.

“You have to start by stopping the killing and the misery and the abuse that is going on today and then give time for a political settlement.”

Assad told Annan on Sunday that a political solution is impossible as long as “terrorist groups” threaten the country, according to Syria’s state news service, which reported identical comments after the men met on Saturday. The regime blames the uprising on armed groups acting out a foreign conspiracy.

Annan’s calls for reform also fall far short of opposition calls for Assad’s ouster and the end of his authoritarian regime. Opposition leaders say the thousands killed at the hands of his security forces, many while protesting peacefully, mean they’ll accept nothing less.

Annan acknowledged the difficulty of his task. “It’s going to be difficult, but we have to have hope,” he said before leaving for Qatar.

The conflict has become increasingly bloody during the year since protesters in some impoverished provinces first took to the streets to call for political reform. The government has cracked down hard, and protests have spread, with some in the opposition taking up arms to attack government troops and defend their towns and neighborhoods.

The UN says more than 7,500 people have been killed. Assad’s regime and military have remained largely intact while the opposition, though disorganized, shows no sign of relenting on its demands. Few expect a swift resolution.

Government troops shelled areas in and around the northern city of Idlib, activists said, part of a campaign launched Saturday to crush the opposition in its stronghold along the border with Turkey. In some areas they clashed with local rebels fighting under the banner of the loose-knit Free Syrian Army.

The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which relies on a network of activists around Syria, said 16 civilians had been killed in attacks by Syrian forces or in clashes with local rebels in Idlib province. More than five government soldiers were also killed.

An AP photographer in Turkish border villages heard constant artillery pounding, and Turkish residents said they saw Syrian refugees crossing during lulls.

The renewed violence has sent about 1,000 Syrians across the border in the past week, as many as fled during the previous month, a Turkish official said. He spoke on condition of anonymity under government protocol.

Turkey now hosts about 12,500 Syrians, some of the more than 100,000 refugees who have fled to Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan.

Many fear the offensive in Idlib could end up like the regime’s campaign against the rebel-held neighborhood of Baba Amr in the central city of Homs. Troops besieged and shelled Baba Amr for almost a month before capturing it on March 1.

Activists say hundreds were killed, and a U.N. official who visited the area last week said she was “horrified” by the destruction in the nearly deserted district.

Activists said Syrian forces targeted other Homs neighborhoods on Sunday with shells and rocket-propelled grenades.

“There is very heavy destruction. Cars are burning and smoke is rising from the area,” said an activist from Homs who goes by the name Abu Bakr Saleh. “They are trying to punish all districts of Homs where anti-government protests still take place.”

Other activists said government forces shelled a bridge on a road to the Lebanese border often used by families fleeing violence. It was unclear whether the bridge was destroyed.

The Observatory said 25 civilians had been killed in military attacks and clashes between army and rebel forces across Syria on Sunday. Another group, the Local Coordination Committee’s said 32 were killed.

The death tolls could not be independently verified. The Syrian government rarely comments on specific incidents and bars most media from operating inside the country.

Also Sunday, gunmen in the northwestern city of Aleppo killed local boxing champion Gheyath Tayfour. Syria’s state news agency said an armed group ambushed the 43-year-old boxer in his car near Aleppo University and shot him dead.

Tayfour was not known to have voiced opinions on the country’s conflict, making it unclear whether his killing was politically motivated.

Syria has seen a string of mysterious assassinations lately targeting doctors, professors and businessman as the uprising has grown more militarized.

“BREAKING Zionist soldier was killed in a covert operation on the border with Gaza #Gaza #GazaUnderAttack #BREAKING”

No confirmation from any news source.  Could be simple Arab disinformation.

Crossing my fingers… – JW

Can Obama be trusted?.

President Obama greets AIPAC supporters following his speech to the group. Photo: Ruvi Leider.

Few would envy Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s role during the forthcoming months.

Whatever spin is applied, the Obama administration is refusing to draw red lines on timing prior to resorting to military action to forestall Iran’s nuclear threat. With an impending new round of “negotiations” with the Iranians virtually guaranteed to be futile, the situation for Israel remains highly disconcerting. Besides, much of the public debate on the issue is conjecture as most commentators are simply unequipped to assess the practicality of resolving the threat by military means.

But recent events in Washington do provide some grounds for optimism.

The American people and a bipartisan Congress are today more genuinely supportive about Israel’s security and well-being than they have been since the creation of the Jewish state. This was also reflected in U.S. President Barack Obama’s address to AIPAC.

Yes, during elections, many promises are made which are invariably subsequently repudiated. And yes, four years ago, when he stood for election, Obama at AIPAC also made warm statements concerning Israel.

But even allowing for election fever, Obama’s almost desperate efforts to persuade Jews and the American people that he supports Israel, “the historic homeland of the Jewish people,” went beyond anything this administration had previously expressed. And he would not have felt compelled to do so were it not for the genuinely supportive attitude of the American people.

We would have preferred the president to be more specific about his readiness to revert to a military option and he was clearly pleading for Israel to hold back and allow more time for sanctions to bite. But he has now explicitly recognized the “unacceptable” existential threat that Iran poses, not only to Israel but to the entire free world. Whether he meant it or not, he unambiguously disavowed reliance on containment and was more forthcoming than previously with regards to the employment of force should sanctions fail. His tacit approval for Israel to take whatever steps it considers necessary to defend itself was a major policy tilt from the harsh threats and warnings directed against us over recent months from various elements in the administration.

Yet by failing to specify a time frame by which diplomacy and sanctions could be deemed to have failed or to provide Iran with an ultimatum for a specific deadline, Obama is asking Israel to trust him and await the outcome of sanctions. In his time frame, military action would be unlikely prior to the elections and once re-elected, the current political pressures on him to act forcefully would be substantially eased.

Obama’s reticence is not surprising. This administration, which burned itself in successive wars in the Middle East and is currently seeking to extricate itself from the region, has little enthusiasm for military conflict with the Iranians. Obama also fears the economic repercussions which could impact on the elections if he becomes involved in a conflict with Iran in this volatile oil-producing region.

On the assumption that secret discussions behind closed doors between Netanyahu and Obama relating to a specific time schedule were inconclusive, Israel would in all likelihood be confronted with a “containment” policy by default if it blindly relied on the United States. In such a scenario, it would be of little comfort to us if the Obama administration subsequently disowns responsibility by citing failures of its intelligence agencies to adequately monitor Iran’s nuclear progress.

Netanyahu undoubtedly understands this and realizes that he must therefore independently prepare the nation to do whatever is deemed necessary to protect our national interests and ensure our survival. To this effect, complaints that Netanyahu overstated the threat by alluding to the Holocaust were entirely unwarranted. His analogy was entirely appropriate. After all, Ahmadinejad and other Iranian messianic cult leaders are today again explicitly directing genocidal threats against us and threatening to wipe us off the face of the map.

We would like to believe that the U.S. would support us if we became engaged in a military conflict with the Iranians. However, when one observes the indifference of the civilized world, including that of the Obama administration toward the current slaughter in Syria and recollects how, despite firm undertakings, the U.S. and others failed to support Israel prior to the 1967 Six-Day War, we require little persuasion to be convinced that ultimately we must rely on ourselves.

Netanyahu must therefore intensify efforts to clarify Obama’s future intentions and continue pressing the administration, at the very least, to strengthen sanctions, building on the goodwill which currently prevails among the American people. Even if re-elected, Obama must take into account public opinion and if Congress retains its strong bi-partisan support for Israel, it may at least inhibit a return to the bad old days.

On the other hand, Obama did not exaggerate when he boasted to AIPAC that his recent speech at the U.N. was the most pro-Israel address ever made by a U.S. president at a global forum. Nor can one fault our defense relationship with the U.S. which remains at an all-time high.

But expressions of love and abundant use of clichés such as “our unbreakable bonds” and “I have Israel’s back” are insufficient. The Palestinian issue will invariably return to the fore. Despite years of bullying us diplomatically, Obama has yet to condemn the Palestinians for their incitement, terrorism, intransigence and refusal to indulge in negotiations. We need clarification of U.S. support for the major settlement blocs and defensible borders as it is abundantly clear that the Obama prescription of Israel retaining 1967 armistice lines plus ‘mutual’ swaps will never be achieved with the current Palestinian leadership. Above all, he should decisively reject the “Arab refugee right of return” which if implemented would lead to our demise. If he moves in this direction, we could say that despite his former displays of animosity toward Netanyahu and his obsession with appeasing the Muslim world, his words of support are meaningful and not merely electoral rhetoric.

Viewed overall, Netanyahu’s visit to Washington achieved the best possible outcome. He can certainly take major credit for having effectively raised awareness of the Iranian threat to its highest global level. He has played the good cop-bad cop approach and clearly succeeded in encouraging Obama to adopt a far more positive attitude in relation to our existential concerns about Iran.

Regrettably, much of our future course of action remains in limbo. But we should constantly remind ourselves that notwithstanding the intensified feral hostility from our regional neighbors, we have never been in a stronger military position. And despite Obama’s subsequent warnings that a premature strike would “have consequences for the U.S. as well as Israel,” Obama has effectively provided Israel with a green light to act as it considers necessary to defend its vital interests if sanctions fail to deter the Iranians.

We should also feel satisfied that when Netanyahu told AIPAC: “As prime minister of Israel, I will never let my people live in the shadow of annihilation,” he meant it and that the Jewish state guarantees that the Jewish people have the capacity to defend themselves and overcome their adversaries.

The writer’s website can be viewed at www.wordfromjerusalem.com. He can be contacted at ileibler@netvision.net.il. This article was originally published by Israel Hayom.

Sarwar Kashmeri: America Recalibrates Its Israeli Alliance.

Huffington Post

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned home without receiving an American endorsement for an Israeli attack on Iran. Neither did he find much support for the Israeli government’s assertion that the window to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons is about to slam shut. In fact, the U.S. military and intelligence community did not budge from its unified conclusion that Iran has not yet decided to manufacture a nuclear weapon.

Netanyahu came to town with both guns blazing. He gathered the powerful forces of the American Israeli Public Affairs Committee, AIPAC, and the hawkish elements of the U.S. Congress around his argument. That he still could not pressure the United States to see the Middle East through his optics, in spite of all this firepower, and during an American presidential election campaign, makes his failure a notable development. And a remarkable success story for the Obama administration.

But even more important than the refusal to open the door to a potential attack by Israel on Iran was a strategic development that has not yet received the illumination it deserves: President Obama’s recalibration of the alliance between the United States and its closest ally in the Middle East.

The recalibration is encapsulated in this quote from the New York Times report of the president’s Tuesday 6 March, 2012 press conference

“… Mr. Obama made clear that when he said the United States “has Israel’s back” — a phrase he used in his speech on Sunday and in the Oval Office with Mr. Netanyahu — it should not be interpreted to mean that he was giving Israel any kind of go-ahead for a pre-emptive strike on Iran.

His statement, Mr. Obama said, was a more general expression of American support for an ally, like Britain or Japan. ‘It was not a military doctrine that we were laying out for any particular military action,’ he said.” (Emphasis added.)

The clear analogy is with the 1956 invasion of Egypt by Briton and France. Egypt had nationalized the Suez Canal, in which Britain and France were sizable investors, and for whom the loss of this passageway had serious geopolitical consequences. The two European powers labeled Egypt’s action an act of war and invaded Egypt to take back the canal forcibly.

A shocked President Eisenhower made it clear that the United States disagreed with the British-French action, publicly voiced its disapproval, and forced a reversal of their invasion.
That America would act against two of its closes allies, and force them to reverse a decision they considered to be in their national interests, was a rude awakening for Britain and France.

Eisenhower might just as well have used the Obama phraseology that both allies knew the United States had their back, but this did not imply permission for any preemptive strike.

President Obama has firmly let it be known that whatever may have been the overt or hidden understandings between Israel and the United States in the past, going forward this alliance will follow the rules America follows with any other close ally. Translation: If you attack Iran on your own Mr. Netanyahu, do not count on the United States joining you in your action.

If my analysis of President Obama’s recalibration is correct, the alliance with Israel has just been quietly reset.

The reset I believe fits into the administration’s evolving American foreign policy doctrine for the new century. A doctrine which recognizes that in the future American leadership of the world can only be exercised by harnessing a matrix of power centers. Nowhere is the need for leading with a matrix more true than in the Middle East.

Mr. Netanyahu could of course still throw caution to the wind and attack Iran. He could gamble by betting on the widely held assumption that no American president facing reelection could afford to sit on the sidelines if Israel were to attack Iran.

Were Netanyahu to do so, he would be very short-sighted. It is not a bet that he can win.

IDF estimates rocket fire on south to continue in coming days – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Army chief Gantz meets General Staff members to discuss escalation; says intelligence obtained by Shin Bet justifies continued strikes in Gaza

During a meeting with members of the General Staff Forum, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz said the army has intensified its attacks on targets in Gaza Sunday amid incessant rocket fire on Israel’s southern region.

The army estimates the current round of violence in the south will continue in the next few days.

Gantz has instructed the Southern Command to make use of intelligence information gathered by the army and the Shin Bet security service. He said the information justifies the continued attacks in Gaza, which are aimed at quelling the rocket fire emanating from the Hamas-ruled territory.

During the meeting, the top IDF officers said Islamic Jihad, which has fired dozens of rockets toward Israel since the current round of violence beganon Friday, did not have any major achievements and therefore intensified its rocket fire on Sunday.

Rocket landing site in Beersheba (Photo: Herzl Yosef)

The IDF, for its part, has increased the number of strikes on rocket-launchers and launching pads in Gaza. Gantz accused Hamas of not working to thwart the rocket attacks on Israel.

IDF Spokesperson Brigadier General Yoav Mordechai said Islamic Jihad was “continuing to operate as the long arm of Iran, which bolsters it by sending weapons and money directly from Tehran.”

Also Sunday, Defense Minister Ehud Barak met Gantz and senior intelligence officials. “The IDF will hit hard those who try to harm Israeli civilians,” he said.

According to the army, 95 rocket and mortar landing sites have been identified since Friday. The Iron Dome system has intercepted 40 rockets.

At around noon Sunday Beersheba suffered two direct hits. One woman suffered from anxiety after one of the rockets landed in a residential neighborhood. Fifteen homes were damaged.

The second rocket landed near a school, which was empty due to the continued rocket fire.

Some 30 rockets have been fired toward Israel on Sunday, with five people suffering from shock. In light of the escalation, many schools in the area will remain closed on Monday.

Since Friday, the IDF has carried out 24 strikes in Gaza, including 16 against terror cells who were attempting to launch rockets at Israel and eight on warehouses where weapons and ammunition were being stored and manufactured.

IDF: Iran encouraging Palestinia… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

By REUTERS

Iran is encouraging the Islamic Jihad terrorist group in Gaza to continue firing rockets against Israel, IDF Spokesman Brig.-Gen. Yoav Mordechai said on Sunday.

According to Mordechai, since the beginning of the violence on Friday, 150 rockets have been fired by Palestinian terror groups, although 40 landed inside Gaza and another 37 were intercepted by the Iron Dome counter-rocket defense system. “Iran finances Islamic Jihad and supports it with weaponry,” Mordechai told reporters. “In these days, the Iranians are supporting them and actively encouraging them to continue.”

Mordechai said that while Hamas was not actively firing rockets into Israel, it is viewed as the ruling authority in Gaza and is therefore held responsible by Israel for terrorist attacks that originate inside the territory.

Earlier in the day, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz convened a meeting of the General Staff and instructed the Southern Command to utilize intelligence collected by the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), and Military Intelligence to continue striking targets throughout the Gaza Strip.

According to assessment within the IDF, Islamic Jihad is increasingly frustrated with its failure to exact a heavy price from Israel despite the large number of rockets it has fired. As a result of this frustration, the IDF predicts that the Islamic Jihad will escalate its rocket fire in the coming days.

In general, short-range rockets fired into Israel are done so by members of the Popular Resistance Committees, the leader of which was assassinated by Israel on Friday as he was plotting an attack along Israel’s border with Egypt. The longer range rockets such as those fired towards Ashdod as well as the ones destroyed the Israel Air Force in underground launchers hidden throughout Gaza on Sunday, are fired by the Islamic Jihad.

In addition on Sunday, the IDF recorded an increase in the number of air strikes it carried out during the day. Gantz also ordered the IDF to continue operating against terrorist targets in Gaza despite efforts that are underway by European diplomats to obtain a ceasefire between Israel and the terrorist groups in Gaza.

Iran | Israel | Missiles | The Daily Caller.

The Iranian newspaper Kayhan reported Thursday that in the first minutes of any American conflict with Iran, “Israel and all U.S. interests around the world will be targeted.”

The newspaper, which is under the supervision of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ran the story under the headline “11,000 Missiles Ready to Launch.”

And on Saturday, Tehran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Qazanfar Roknabadi, confirmed during a public roundtable event that the Islamic regime is prepared to attack both Israel and U.S. bases in the region if its nuclear facilities are attacked.

Citing comments from Gen. Zakaraia Hossein, the former head of the superior academy of Egypt, the Kayhan report added that “America fully knows that Iran is not Iraq” and that “a war with Iran would jeopardize all its interests in the region.”

The Kayhan report emphasized that the leaders of the Islamic regime have successfully thwarted American and Israeli threats over its illicit nuclear program. But given Iran’s missile capabilities, it said, any aggression on its soil will be met with the launch of 11,000 missiles against Israel and U.S. interests in the region.

The report said Iran had successfully launched three intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) during recent war games exercises. Though this has not been reported by other sources, such capability could drastically change the balance of power in the region and further escalate existing tensions.

In December it emerged that China sold Iran, for $11 billion, advanced DF-31 ICBMs which are capable of reaching U.S. soil with nuclear warheads. North Korean engineers are helping to get the missile system up and running.

In Beirut, Roknabadi dismissed the idea of an Israeli first-strike, saying that “the Zionist regime is not able to stage military attack against Iran,” according to the Fars News Agency.

At the same event, the Mehr News Agency reported that Roknabadi repeated the Kayhan report’s claim that Iran has thousands of missiles at the ready.

“If the Zionist regime makes such a mistake with military aggression against Iran, it will face Iran’s crushing response,” he warned. “We have prepared ourselves and currently have 11,000 missiles ready to launch at the U.S. and Israel and their interests in the world.”

In an interview with Reuters on Saturday, Iran’s ambassador in Paris, Ali Ahani, said that the only way to move out of the current deadlock over Iran’s nuclear program is for the West to recognize Iran’s right to nuclear enrichment.

The Islamic regime’s strategists believe that further advancement in their nuclear program and an aggressive policy of responding to threats will finally convince the West to accept its nuclear activities and with that remove the sanctions against the country.

Iran continues with its illicit nuclear enrichment program despite four sets of U.N. sanctions. It has enough low-enriched uranium for six nuclear bombs and continues to enrich to the 20 percent level at the nuclear facilities of Natanz and Fordow. The Fordow facility is deep within a mountain and believed to be immune from air strikes. That uranium could become weapons-grade material within weeks if it were further enriched.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu announced on Friday that Istanbul will host the next round of talks between Iran and the six major powers, which is expected to be held in April.

Reza Kahlili is a pseudonym for a former CIA operative in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and the author of the award winning book, ”A Time to Betray.” He teaches at the U.S. Department of Defense’s Joint Counterintelligence Training Academy.

OFF TOPIC:

As you can imagine, it’s very emotionally draining maintaining this site.  I know that many of my readers feel the same way as I do about the situation.

My son sent me this video he had discovered.  In a strange way, it helped restore some of my faith in humanity.  I felt I owed it to you to share it. – JW