WarSclerotic

It’s 10 Minutes to Midnight: Introducing The Iran War Clock – Dominic Tierney – International – The Atlantic.

(Amazing… The talking head blowhards have declared themselves to be equivalent of the Scientists in the”Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.”  These wise men include the likes of the inveterate anti-Semite, Robin Wright. This will be my first and last mention of these amoral cash-ins. – JW )

War or peace in the Middle East amounts to a coin toss. The probability that the United States or Israel will strike Iran in the next year is 48 percent according to a new project that predicts the chances of conflict–the Iran War Clock. And as a result, the clock is set to 10 minutes to midnight.

How does the Iran War Clock work?

We’ve assembled a high-profile panel of experts from the policy world, academia, and journalism to periodically predict the odds of conflict. They include: Daniel Byman, Shahram Chubin, Golnaz Esfandiari, Azar Gat, Jeffrey Goldberg, Amos Harel, Ephraim Kam, Dalia Dassa Kaye, Matthew Kroenig, John Limbert, Valerie Lincy, James Lindsay, Marc Lynch, Gary Milhollin, Trita Parsi, Paul Pillar, Barry Rubin, Karim Sadjadpour, Kenneth Timmerman, Shibley Telhami, Stephen Walt, and Robin Wright.

It’s a diverse group ranging from a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iran, to a Senior Vice President at the Council on Foreign Relations; from a Deputy Head of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, to a military correspondent at Haaretz.

Each panelist makes an individual estimate about the percentage chance of war and we report the average score. Based on this number, we adjust the Iran War Clock so that the hand moves closer to, or further away from, midnight.

If there is a zero percent chance of war, the clock hand is at 20 minutes to midnight. Each extra 5 percent chance of war moves the hand one minute closer to midnight. So, for instance, a 10 percent chance of war would set the clock at 18 minutes to midnight, and a 75 percent chance of war would set the clock at 5 minutes to midnight. We round up and down, so 48 percent is rounded up to 10 minutes to midnight.

The Iran War Clock is not designed to be pro-war or anti-war. Instead, the purpose is to estimate the chances of conflict in the hope of producing a more informed debate. If people hold a very inaccurate view of the odds of war it could be dangerous.

We’re humble about the accuracy of this prediction, which is really a collective “gut-check” feeling. But it may be closer to the truth than the alternative forecasts available.

For more details on the Iran War Clock and the panel read these FAQs.

Before turning to the panel’s estimate, what is the latest on the Iranian crisis?

In February 2012, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, announced that its mission in Iran had failed. Tehran was unwilling to offer full access to its nuclear sites and allay concerns over “possible military dimensions” to its nuclear program. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said that IAEA fears were “baseless,” and Tehran offered to resume negotiations.

Israel has recently stepped up its rhetoric, describing an Iranian bomb as an existential threat and suggesting that there is a limited window of opportunity to significantly damage the Iranian nuclear program. “Whoever says ‘later’,” remarked Defense Minister Ehud Barak: “may find that later is too late.” Israel also signaled that it would not warn Washington before launching a unilateral strike on Iran.

According to Israeli President Shimon Peres, Israel is not rushing into war, but “if another war is forced upon us, we will fight it and we will win it.” U.S. defense analysts have raised doubts, however, about Israel’s capacity to wage a sustained bombing campaign over the “days and weeks” necessary to destroy key Iranian sites.

In the last week, President Barack Obama delivered a carefully calibrated message on Iran. He told the Atlantic that, “as president of the United States, I don’t bluff,” adding that, “when the United States says it is unacceptable for Iran to have a nuclear weapon, we mean what we say.” In a speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee on Sunday, the president affirmed that the United States had “Israel’s back,” and rejected a policy of containing a nuclear Iran. At the same time, Obama announced his “deeply held preference” for peace over war, and urged Israel to allow time for economic sanctions against Iran to bite.

Prominent Republicans have adopted a more hawkish stance on Iran, criticizing the president for a weak policy, and pushing Obama to draw clear “red lines” that, if crossed, would provoke a U.S. strike.

Given this context, the panel estimated that the odds of war in the next twelve months were 48 percent. Out of interest, the median estimate was also 48 percent.

This prediction is consistent with the betting market Intrade.com, which estimates a 40 percent chance of a U.S./Israeli strike by December 2012. When two different methods of prediction produce a similar result, it increases our confidence that the estimate is fairly accurate.

Peace is still more likely than war, but only just. And when we next update the Iran War Clock, the odds will favor the hawks if the clock ticks even one minute closer to midnight.

PM: Iran strike won’t come in da… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

By Marc Israel Sellem/The Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu addressed the timeline of a potential attack against Iran in an excerpt of a Channel 2 interview aired Thursday, saying an attack would not come in “a matter of days or weeks, but it’s also not a matter of years.”

Netanyahu emphasized that an attack against Iran is not a foregone conclusion, and that a diplomatic solution to the threat of Iran’s nuclear program may still be found.

“I hope that the pressure on Iran will work and we can peacefully convince them to tear down their nuclear program,” the prime minister stated.

Netanyahu admitted that having to decide whether to launch a military strike against Iran was a great responsibility, saying that if the correct decision was not taken, there might not be a future generation to which he would have to explain his decision-making process.

The prime minister’s turn to the Israeli media after his recent trip to the United States in which he met with US President Barack Obama also included an interview with Channel 10 which was aired in part on Thursday.

In the Channel 10 interview, Netanyahu addressed the harassment scandal surrounding former Prime Minister’s Office chief of staff Natan Eshel, saying the charges against him were “very harsh.”

Eshel resigned last month from his post after admitting to misconduct after other senior PMO officials brought charges against Eshel for harassing a female staffer.

The prime minister said while he thought the staffers who broke news of Eshel’s relationship with the female staffer to the attorney-general’s office “acted well,” they should have approached Netanyahu first.

Khameini Praises Obama’s ‘Wise’ Foreign Policy – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Reuters

Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini lauded US President Barack Obama on Thursday for saying he had no plans to strike Iran.

“Two days ago, we heard the president of America say: ‘We are not thinking of war with Iran.’ This is good. Very good. These are wise words. This is an exit from illusion,” Khameini said, according to state television.

At a news conference Tuesday, Obama said there is still a window of opportunity to use diplomacy to stop Iran from building nuclear bomb without military force.

However, he also criticized the U.S. president for “still harboring illusions” that sanctions would force Iran to give up uranium enrichment, a key demand of world powers.

Iran and six world powers — the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany — are scheduled to pick a date for new talks on Tehran’s nuclear program soon.

Israel, the United States, its Western allies, and Gulf Arab nations say Iran is actively pursuing nuclear weapons in violation of its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

On Thursday, International Atomic Energy Agency director Yukiya Amano demanded transparency from Iran amid reports it was covering up illegal nuclear experiments.

“Iran is not telling us everything. That is my impression. We are asking Iran to engage with us proactively, and Iran has a case to answer,” Amano said.

Khamenei is the architect of a policy he calls “threats against threats,” in which Iranian officials respond aggressively to statements by Israeli or US remarks that the military option is on the table.

Analysts say his praise of Obama proves, contrary to the White House’s protestations, that there is no credible military threat from Washington backing up its sanctions and that appeasement is ruling policy on Capitol Hill.

“It shows that our assertive polices are working,” said Ahmad Bakhshayesh, an analyst close to Iran’s top leaders told the Washington Post. “The U.S. has no other option than to compromise on our stances and accept our nuclear program.”

World powers to Iran: Open milit… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

By REUTERS

03/08/2012 14:57

Six countries voice “regret” about stepped-up uranium enrichment; diplomats suspect Tehran is trying to clean up the site before allowing in IAEA inspectors.

By REUTERS

VIENNA – Six world powers called on Iran on Thursday to let international inspectors visit a military site where the UN nuclear watchdog says development work relevant to nuclear weapons may have taken place.

In a joint statement at a board meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the powers also voiced “regret” about Iran’s stepped-up campaign to enrich uranium – activity which can have both civilian and military purposes.

“We urge Iran to fulfill its undertaking to grant access to Parchin,” the statement said, referring to the military facility southeast of Tehran. Iran refused access to the complex during two rounds of talks with a senior IAEA team earlier this year.

Western diplomats suspect the Islamic state may now be trying to clean up the site to remove evidence of research with nuclear applications before possibly allowing inspectors in.

The six powers handling the Iran nuclear issue are the United States, China, Russia, France, Germany and Britain.

An IAEA report last year revealed a trove of intelligence pointing to research activities in Iran of use in developing the means and technologies needed to assemble nuclear weapons, should it decide to do so.

One salient finding was information that Iran had built a large containment chamber at Parchin in which to conduct high-explosives tests that the IAEA said are “strong indicators of possible weapon development”.

Iran has suggested that the IAEA could get access to Parchin, but only after a broader deal is reached on how to address all outstanding issues between Tehran and the Vienna-based agency – an approach Western diplomats dismissed as a stalling tactic.

The world powers’ statement, agreed after intensive discussions within the often disunited group, also voiced backing for efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the long-running row.

Israel and the United States have threatened Iran with military strikes as a last-ditch way to stop it getting nuclear weapons.

The European Union’s foreign policy chief, who represents the powers in dealings with Iran, said on Tuesday they had accepted Iran’s offer to return to talks after a standstill of a year that seen increasingly bellicose rhetoric.

Khamenei hails Obama’s remarks against Iran strike – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

( Be known by your friends as well as by your enemies… – JW )

The supreme leader of the Islamic Republic welcomes the U.S. president’s push for diplomacy with Iran over its nuclear program.

By The Associated Press 

Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has welcomed comments by U.S. President Barack Obama pushing forward diplomacy and not war as a solution to Tehran’s nuclear ambition, Iran’s state TV reported on Thursday.

The report quotes Khamenei as praising a recent statement by the U.S. president saying he saw a “window of opportunity” to use diplomacy to resolve the nuclear dispute.

	Iran’s supreme religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
	Photo by: AP

It is one of the rare cases in which Iran’s top leader praised an American leader.
However Khamenei said the West’s sanctions on Iran would fail.

The U.S., Israel and their allies suspect Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon, a charge Iran denies.

On Tuesday, Obama met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and told him that he believes there is time for diplomacy with Iran. However, he did reiterate to Netanyahu that the U.S. is not taking any options off the table, including a military option.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu has been trying to garner Obama’s support for tougher talk on Iran, and a U.S. commitment to warn against an attack on Iran, should the Islamic Republic cross certain “red lines.”

Israel Air Force flies over Auschwitz – YouTube.

I was requested by a number of readers to re post the video I made about the Israel Air force flying over Auschwitz.  Even though I made the video, watching now while posting made me weep with deep sorrow, fear and unmitigated pride in my little country. – JW

נתבקשתי על ידי מספר הקוראים להעלות את הווידאו עשיתי על חיל האוויר הישראלי טס מעל אושוויץ. למרות שעשיתי את הסרטון, צופה כעת תוך פרסום גרם לי לבכות מרוב צער ופחד עמוק, אבל בעיקר גאווה במדינה הקטנה שלי

Netanyahu may have agreed to hold off strike in exchange for arms | The Times of Israel.

Obama offered Netanyahu refueling planes and bunker-busting bombs to stay an attack on Iran, Maariv reports

F-15 jets being refueled in the air. (photo credit: Ofer Zidon/Flash90)The US will supply Israel with bunker-busting bombs and refueling planes in return for delaying a strike against Iran until at least the end of the year, Maariv reported on Thursday.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meeting with US President Barack Obama in the White House last week. (photo credit: Amos Ben Gershom/GPO/Flash90)

According to the report, during their meeting earlier this week in Washington, US President Barack Obama promised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the latest deep-penetration arms from the US arsenal as well as airborne tankers to refuel strike jets necessary for an Israeli attack on Iran. In return, Israel will agree to not take any action until at least the end of 2012, after the upcoming US presidential elections.

Although rumors of the possible supply of new bombs and planes began even while Netanyahu was still in the US, Maariv’s claim, based on Western sources, is that the equipment will be supplied on condition of delaying an attack.

Obama gave Israel neither a green light for an attack, nor a red light, but rather a “bright yellow light,” sources told Maariv, adding that the yellow light is nearly red. Obama made it clear to Netanyahu that an Israeli attack, uncoordinated with the US, will have the most serious implications on regional stability and relations between the two countries. Maariv said that sources close to the recent meetings in Washington reported that it will be “difficult, if not impossible” for Israel to ignore Obama’s warnings.

Central to the difference of opinions is at what stage of the uranium enrichment process it will become necessary to use military force. According to intelligence reports, Iran has succeeded in enriching 120 kilogram (265 lbs.) of uranium to 20 percent purity. To make a bomb the Iranians require 250 kg (550 lbs) of 90% pure uranium. However, enriching from 20% to 90% is a relatively fast process, meaning Israel may see its window for action closing.

According to Maariv, the US is prepared to wait until Iran has 250 kg of 20% rich uranium, but Israel considers the current developments beyond its own red line for action.

Obama Admin Cites ‘Int’l Permission,’ Not Congress, As ‘Legal Basis’ For Action In Syria – YouTube.

(Phasers on “weasel” ! – JW )

WASHINGTON, March 7—Under question from Sen. Sessions at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing today, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey indicated that “international permission,” rather than Congressional approval, provided a ‘legal basis’ for military action by the United States.

Russia Helps Syria to Upgrade Radar.

Arie Egozi

7/3/2012

Russian experts recently upgraded Syria’s long-range radar systems in an effort to provide Iran with an early warning in the event of an attack on its nuclear facilities.

The Russian experts operated in the radar facility south of Damascus, where several relatively old radar systems are stationed. The experts brought new equipment with them, which was attached to the existing systems, and modified software for other systems. Similar work was done on the radar system positioned at Mount Sannine in Lebanon.

The upgraded radar covers a wide area in the eastern Mediterranean sea, and can detect aerial activity up to ranges of hundreds of kilometers. Special sites in Syria that are fully or partially manned by Russian operators, primarily near Tartus Port, are involved in the Syrian effort to sound an early alarm against any aircraft on their way to attack Iran.

It is not clear to what level the Syrian radar systems were upgraded, but it is known that Russia has invested considerable efforts and funds in recent years to upgrade its radar capabilities. This is in part due to the imminent introduction of the US F-35 stealth fighter into operational use, which was also procured by the Israeli Air Force. In addition, Russia claims that it has developed the capability to detect stealth aircraft by positioning several radars in a certain area.

The blinding hatred – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

The instinctive and uncontrolled hatred toward Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prevents a fair and rational discussion on Israel’s future.

By Israel Harel