Archive for March 7, 2012

Top US danger rating for Syrian chemical-biological missiles – ahead even of Iran

March 7, 2012

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 7, 2012, 9:16 PM (GMT+02:00)

US Gen. James Mattis, CENTCOM Chief

US military officials said on Wednesday, March 7, that contrary to the prevailing impression, President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed not only their dispute over an attack on Iran at their White House meeting on March 5, but devoted considerable attention to the Syrian crisis, focusing on the hundreds of surface-to-surface missiles armed with chemical and biological warheads possessed by Syria. The peril of the Assad regime launching them now tops America’s chart of the threats looming over Israel and Turkey, those sources told debkafile.

The US president accordingly prevailed upon his Israeli guest to hurry up and patch up relations with Turkey, which he was willing to assist, because it would take a combined US-Turkish-Israeli military effort to ward off an attack by Syria’s poisoned missiles. Indeed, if the Syrian conflict is not solved, America might be forced to turn its missile shield against Bashar Assad’s missiles before they are needed against an Iranian attack.

The hazard could be accelerated by three elements, say American sources:

1. Assad might decide to respond with extreme violence to foreign military intervention in Syria, even an operation confined only to drawing the civilian population into security zones safe from the attacks of his security services.

On Tuesday, March 6, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan reverted to his call for security zones, and last week, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman offered humanitarian aid to Syria’s beleaguered civilian population. Both such actions, say the American sources, might well be taken by Assad as provocations deserving of reprisal by missiles – first those carrying chemical warheads, then biological ones.

Minister of Home Front Defense Matan Vilnai said Tuesday when he dedicated 14 public shelters at the two largest Druze communities in the Carmel district, Daliat al-Carmel and Usufiya, that “the Haifa district of the Home Front command is expected to be very important in the next war and we anticipate that hundreds of missiles will be fired at the home front.”

These shelters can accommodate 3,000 people.

2. Assad might respond to an Iranian request to take part in a preemptive strike launched by Tehran or Iranian retaliation for attacks on its nuclear facilities by the US or Israel.
3.  Assad might transfer the unconventional missions to Iran’s Lebanese surrogate, the Hizballah – in which case, the US, Turkey and Israel would have no option but to smash them.
US military sources say that although Israel possesses a strong air force and special forces able to sabotage Assad’s chemical and biological missiles, the United States and Turkey would have to pitch in with military resources to destroy them completely.

That arsenal is being closely watched by US surveillance drones after the lessons from the Libyan war when at least 5,000 advanced anti-aircraft missiles were spirited out of Qaddafi’s weapons stores, some of them smuggled into Gaza for Hamas and other Palestinian terrorist organizations.
Testifying to the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Wednesday, the Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey said the Assad regime had ““approximately five times more sophisticated air defenses than existed in Libya covering one-fifth of the terrain” and “about ten times more than we experienced in Serbia.” He also has chemical and biological weapons.

His words reinforced the testimony presented Tuesday to the Senate’s Armed Services Committee by two senior American generals. Marine Gen. James Mattis, head of the US Central Command which covers the Middle East and Gulf region, said: “Syria has a ‘substantial chemical and biological weapons capability and thousands of shoulder-launched missiles.”

Admiral William McRaven, head of the US Special Operations Command, also spoke to the committee about Syria’s weapons of mass destruction and American preparations to deal with this menace.
Those briefings were the first assessments of Syrian chemical and biological weapons capabilities to be given publicly by the heads of America’s armed forces. This was the direct result, US sources say, of the candid and open conversation on the subject between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu Tuesday.

China suddenly airlifts nationals out of Syria

March 7, 2012

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile March 7, 2012, 9:50 PM (GMT+02:00)

DEBKAfile’s military sources report exclusively that a Chinese airlift began operating Wednesday night, March 7, from several Syrian airfields. It is evacuating thousands of nationals, some employed in Syria’s oil and military industries. No explanation was offered. China is one of Bashar Assad’s three backers, along with Iran and Russia. The evacuation may be prompted by early warning of an escalation of the 12-month violence in Syria or foreign military intervention.

 

 

AP: Iran may be cleaning up nuke work

March 7, 2012

AP: Iran may be cleaning up nuke work – USATODAY.com.

VIENNA (AP) – Satellite images of an Iranian military facility show trucks and earth-moving vehicles at the site, indicating that crews were trying to clean it of radioactive traces possibly left by tests of a nuclear-weapon trigger, diplomats told the Associated Press on Wednesday.

Two of the diplomats said the crews may be trying to erase evidence of tests of a small neutron device used to set off a nuclear explosion. A third diplomat could not confirm that but said any attempt to trigger a so-called neutron initiator at the Parchin site could only be in the context of trying to develop nuclear arms.

The images, provided to the IAEA by member countries, are recent and constantly updated, said one of the diplomats.

The diplomats are nuclear experts accredited to the International Atomic Energy Agency, and all asked for anonymity to discuss sensitive information.

Iran is under growing international pressure over its nuclear program, which it insists is peaceful. Israel has warned that it may resort to a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities to prevent Tehran from obtaining atomic weapons.

The IAEA has already identified the Parchin military site as the location of suspected nuclear weapons-related testing. In a November report, it said it appeared to be the site of experiments with conventional high explosives meant to initiate a nuclear chain reaction.

It did not mention a neutron initiator as part of those tests but in a separate section cited an unnamed member nation as saying Iran may have experimented with a neutron initiator, without going into detail or naming a location for such work.

In contrast, the intelligence information shared with the AP by the two diplomats linked the high-explosives work directly to setting off a neutron initiator at Parchin.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Nuclear weapons and Israel – Wikipedia

March 7, 2012

Nuclear weapons and Israel – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

  • EMP strike capabilities: Israel allegedly possesses several 1 megaton bombs,[150][151] which give it a very large EMP attack abilities.[152] For example, if a megaton class weapon were to be detonated 400 kilometers above Omaha, Nebraska, USA, nearly the entire continental United States would be affected with potentially damaging EMP experience from Boston to Los Angeles and from Chicago to New Orleans.[153] Similarly, a high altitude airburst could cause serious damage to electrical systems in most of Iran.[154]

What the IDF’s Iran wish list would look like

March 7, 2012

What the IDF’s Iran wish list wo… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

03/07/2012 21:12
If the IDF were to present the Pentagon with a wish list to ensure a military attack against Iran’s nuclear program succeeds, this is what it might ask for.

IAF F-15s refueling midflight [file]
By Baz Ratner / Reuters

New smart bombs with extended ranges and greater penetration and landing rights on aircraft carriers are just some of the requests that would appear on an Israeli military wish list, if one was presented to the Obama administration as a way to ensure that Israel succeeds in a potential attack against Iran.

While US President Barack Obama voiced clear opposition earlier this week to such a strike, Israel has been noncommittal. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s speech to AIPAC comparing Iran’s nuclear facilities to Auschwitz leaves little doubt about Israel’s seriousness when it comes to the military option.

And while the question of whether Israel can go at it alone against Iran remains up in the air, it would likely request some specific assistance from the United States ahead of a strike in order to make one – if it is launched – more effective.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz will head to the US in late March and if he had to present a wish list to the Pentagon, it might look something like this:

Currently, one of the main pitfalls of Israel’s strike plan is in its mid-air refueling capability, based on a small fleet of Boeing 707 aircraft. The last 707 arrived in Israel in early 2011 and while the official size of the fleet is classified, various reports have placed it at around nine.

Due to the distance the Air Force’s F-15 and F-16 fighter jets would need to fly to attack Iran, the need for mid-air refueling is critical, particularly considering the possibility that the planes will be engaged by Iranian interceptors or air defense systems and will need to burn fuel to outmaneuver them.

If the US loaned Israel or quickly sold it a few tankers, that could increase Israel’s ability to reach Iran and carry out the required number of sorties needed to do the necessary damage to its nuclear facilities.

The second gap is in Israel’s arsenal of bunker buster weapons. The IAF has a relatively significant stockpile of GBU-28s that are said to be capable of penetrating either 30 meters of earth or over six meters of reinforced concrete before detonating its warhead. Israel is also believed to have developed some of its own penetrators, which it has manufactured only a small amount of in recent years due to the high costs.

Israel has, however, closely followed Boeing’s development of the GBU-43 nicknamed the “Mother of all Bombs” (MOAB) as well as the more recent disclosure of the GBU-57, better known as the “Massive Ordnance Penetrator” (MOP).

While the MOAB is not specifically designated to penetrate hardened targets, it would make the destruction of targets above surface easier since it can be done in one sortie with a C-130 Hercules. The MOP though, was specially developed to eliminate underground and fortified targets in North Korea and Iran and is said to be able to penetrate around 60 meters.

In other weapons, Israel could potentially ask for additional Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) kits and particularly ones with an extended range called the JDAM-ER.

This kit, which is installed on bombs like regular JDAMs, comes with an additional set of wings which extends the bombs range from about 30 km to close to 100 km, meaning that aircraft would be able to attack Iranian facilities from a greater standoff position and possibly even out of range of Iran’s surface-to-air missile systems.

The third request that Israel could potentially ask of the US would be to station search and rescue teams – possibly from the IAF’s 669 Unit – aboard aircraft carriers the US Navy has stationed in the Persian Gulf or alternatively in bases it maintains nearby. This would help Israel tremendously if it needed to launch a rescue mission to retrieve a downed pilot.

Due to the possibility of mechanical malfunctions in such a complicated mission, the ability to land, repair, refuel and rearm its aircraft in bases near Iran could also be something Israel would ask for.

But why would Obama agree to any of this?

This would depend on the timing of Israel’s request. While the president currently appears to be opposed to military force, he did stress at AIPAC that Israel has the right to act in self defense and to do what it feels it needs to do as a sovereign state.

In addition, if Israel informed the president that it had decided to attack and that there was no alternative, it would ultimately be in the US’s interest that Israel succeeds and that the damage it causes be surgical but also extensive. All of these different capabilities would increase the chances.

They have no idea who they’re fighting…

March 7, 2012

(A video I made over two years ago.  Never more appropriate than now. – JW)

Israeli attack on Iran would only delay nuclear plans, think-tank chief says

March 7, 2012

Israeli attack on Iran would only delay nuclear plans, think-tank chief says.

(Once again, they have no idea who they’re fighting. – JW)

International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) head John Chipman said an Israeli attack against Iran was unlikely this year, following U.S. assurances this week to Israel that it would not rule out military action. (File photo)

International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) head John Chipman said an Israeli attack against Iran was unlikely this year, following U.S. assurances this week to Israel that it would not rule out military action. (File photo)

An Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would only set back Tehran’s program by a couple of years, the head of a respected London-based think-tank said Wednesday.

International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) head John Chipman said an Israeli attack against Iran was unlikely this year, following U.S. assurances this week to Israel that it would not rule out military action.

Only the United States could conduct a serious campaign against Iran’s nuclear facilities, he said.

Furthermore, a pre-emptive Israeli strike could backfire because it is likely to push the Tehran regime to accelerate its nuclear ambitions, warned the IISS director-general at the release of its annual “Military Balance” report.

Western powers suspect Iran is seeking to build a nuclear bomb, a charge denied by Tehran which says its atomic program is for purely civilian purposes.

“My judgment is that an Israeli attack on Iran of an overt kind is unlikely this year,” Chipman told a news conference on the annual assessment of the global military power balance.

“Both Israel and the United States are conscious that Israel can conduct a raid; only the United States can conduct a campaign.

“I think that it’s the latter that would be necessary in order to delay, in any meaningful way, the acquisition of a confirmed Iranian nuclear military capability.

“The judgment of most military experts is that any attack — whether a raid or a campaign — would only delay such acquisition and could, of course, incentivize the regime, once it reorganizes itself, to move ever quicker towards that goal.”

Chipman said that in talks this week in Washington, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received an assurance from U.S. President Barack Obama.

The promise was “in effect, that if Israel took U.S. advice and did not attack prematurely, that when the threat matured, the United States would, if all other options failed, use the military option.”

“So my judgment is that it is unlikely that there would be an attack this year.”

He added: “Washington has appealed for patience, on the grounds that Iran is not on the verge of producing nuclear weapons, that Israeli air strikes would set back Iran’s program by only a couple of years, and that sanctions are now having a real impact on Iran.”

Iran could carry out its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz by mining the key shipping channel and using anti-ship missiles, torpedoes or rockets, Chipman said.

“While these capabilities could disrupt shipping temporarily, the U.S. and its allies maintain significant maritime assets in the region and would soon be able to reopen the strait,” he said.

Iran could also try to impose more bureaucracy on shipping, increasing transit times by imposing more demands on vessels using the waters it controls.

Chipman said tensions remained high in the Middle East, with regional states concerned about Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

Gulf countries were continuing to buy a great deal of military equipment in response, he said.

U.S. considers ‘non-lethal’ aid to Syrian opposition, says Panetta

March 7, 2012

U.S. considers ‘non-lethal’ aid to Syrian opposition, says Panetta.

(I have no use for Romney, but if this doesn’t qualify as “feckless,” I don’t know what does. – JW)

United States defense secretary Leon Panetta told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the U.S. was weighing non-military assistance to Syria. (Reuters)

United States defense secretary Leon Panetta told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the U.S. was weighing non-military assistance to Syria. (Reuters)

United States defense secretary Leon Panetta said on Wednesday the U.S. will provide emergency humanitarian assistance to the Syrian people, with an initial commitment of $10 million, to help in their fight against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Panetta said the financial assistance would be a form of “non-lethal aid” to Syria’s opposition forces, which would include the likes of radio equipment, he told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Although the defense chief laid out several U.S. options on Syria, he stopped short of military intervention, adding it would only be an option “if necessary.”

“We are reviewing all possible additional steps that can be taken with our international partners to support efforts to protect the Syrian people, end the violence, and ensure regional stability, including potential military options if necessary,” Panetta told the committee.

“Although we will not rule out any future course of action, currently the administration is focusing on diplomatic and political approaches rather than a military intervention,” he added.

Panetta also said the U.S. would work with the regional members of the Friends of Syria group and others to “help strengthen the [Syrian] opposition.”

Asked by Senator Richard Blumenthal if the United States was ready to deliver communications equipment to Syrian rebels, Panetta said: “I’d prefer to discuss that in a closed session but I can tell you that we’re considering an array of non-lethal assistance.”

Some Republican lawmakers have called for U.S. air strikes to support the Syrian rebels and warned that time is running out to protect threatened civilians. Panetta, however, echoed Obama’s view that the situation was different than Libya, where a NATO-led coalition carried out a bombing campaign last year that helped topple Muammar Qaddafi’’s regime.

General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at the same hearing that the U.S. military had prepared contingency plans for possible intervention but the president had not yet been briefed and a more detailed operational plan had not yet been drawn up.

Meanwhile, Senator John McCain, the ranking Republican on the committee, urged military intervention in his opening remarks.

“Assad needs to know that he will not win, and unfortunately that is not the case now,” McCain said.

Hamas denies it intends to stay out of Israeli war with Iran

March 7, 2012

Hamas denies it intends to stay out of Israeli war with Iran – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

( That’s it. I’m done reporting about anything Hamas “says.” – JW)

Speaking to Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency, Mahmoud Zahar says retaliation ‘with utmost power is the position of Hamas with regard to a Zionist war on Iran.’

By Haaretz

A top Hamas official rejected Wednesday reports that the militant group would stay out of an armed conflict between Israel and Iran, saying that if indeed such a war erupts Hamas will retaliate with “utmost power.”

Mahmoud Zahar Senior Hamas member Mahmoud Zahar (2nd R) standing with two Coptic Christian priests at Al-Azhar mosque in Cairo February 24, 2012.
Photo by: Reuters

On Tuesday, a report by the U.K.’s Guardian newspaper quoted two Gaza officials as saying that the group did not belong to any regional alliance and would not involve itself in a possible conflict over Iran’s contentious nuclear program.

The report cited Hamas official Salah Bardawil as well as a second unnamed leading figure in the group’s Gaza leadership.

Speaking to the semi-official Iranian news agency Fars on Wednesday, top Hamas figure Mahmoud Zahar refuted a similar report apparently broadcast by BBC’s Persian website, saying: “Retaliation with utmost power is the position of Hamas with regard to a Zionist war on Iran.”

Zahar added that he doubted that Israel would choose to strike Iran, saying, however, that not only would Hamas react to such a conflict, it would also target “whoever helping them.”

Referring to the possibility of an armed conflict between Israel and Iran, Hezbollah deputy Sheikh Naim Qassem said late last month that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program would set the Middle East ablaze.

“America knows that if there is a war on Iran, this means that the whole region will be set alight, with no limit to the fires,” told Reuters.

“Gone are the days when Israel decides to strike, and the people are silent,” he said.

“Israel could start a war … but it does not know the scale of the consequences and it is incapable of controlling them.”

The Hezbollah deputy said he believed Israel would try to drag a reluctant United States into confrontation with Tehran because it could not inflict sufficient losses on Iran alone.

Iran and Israel’s fate

March 7, 2012

Iran and Israel’s fate – JPost – Opinion – Editorials.

By JPOST EDITORIAL
03/06/2012 23:16
In recent days, Obama’s message on Iran has become more emphatic.

Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor By Reuters

US President Barack Obama has made it clear on numerous occasions that with regard to stopping Iran, “all options are on the table.” In recent days his message has become more emphatic.Last week, he told The Atlantic that “when the United States says it is unacceptable for Iran to have a nuclear weapon, we mean what we say.” In a speech on Sunday to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, he declared that his policy was not to contain Iran, it was “to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.” As Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu noted in his speech to AIPAC on Monday, “Israel has the same policy. “We are determined to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. We leave all options on the table. And containment is definitely not an option.”

Nevertheless, US and Israeli interests are not identical. The US timetable for waiting to see if increasingly stringent sanctions coupled with diplomacy and covert actions seriously delay Iran’s nuclear program stretches beyond the time frame in which we in Israel feel it is imperative to act in our own defense.

Also, due to our geographical proximity to Iran, we in Israel feel all the more vulnerable. This feeling is amplified by the fact that we are in a constant state of conflict with terrorist organizations that are Iranian proxies – Hamas on our southern border and Hezbollah to our north. A nuclear-armed Iran, in addition to being a menace to the entire civilized world, would have an immediate destabilizing impact on Israeli security. By providing Hamas and Hezbollah with what Netanyahu referred to as a “nuclear umbrella,” the Islamic Republic would embolden these two terror organizations intent on Israel’s destruction to launch increasingly daring and more murderous attacks on Israel. Israel simply cannot afford to let that happen.

True, the US president assured Israel of his support. “There should not be a shred of doubt by now: When the chips are down, I have Israel’s back.” Obama’s statement should be taken at face value for what it is: a sincere promise to provide Israel with the moral and security backing needed in case of war with Iran.

At the same time, our prime minister has an obligation to his own people. And that obligation includes exercising Israel’s sovereignty and military might in a way that best protects the citizens of the Jewish state. As Netanyahu movingly noted, the Jewish people’s status in the year 2012 is radically different from what it was on the eve of the Holocaust or, for that matter, what it was during the nearly two millennia preceding the massacre of European Jewry.

With the establishment of the State of Israel, the centuries of Jewish powerlessness – when the Jews were devoid of sovereignty, stateless and without military might – came to an end. The Jewish people has “reentered history” as a protagonist responsible for its own fate. This conviction lies at the heart of the Zionist ethos.

Indeed, if our prime minister did not reserve the right to use force to stop the Islamic Republic from achieving an atomic bomb, he would be reneging on Israel’s right, and the right of every sovereign nation, to protect itself from the aggressive actions of maniacal enemies such as Iran – which both denies the Holocaust and vows to repeat it. More significantly, he would be recklessly ignoring the tyrannical threats of a mullah regime that vows to “wipe Israel off the map.”

So if Netanyahu and our other leaders are under the impression that Israel cannot afford to wait much longer to see if diplomacy and sanctions will work, they cannot simply place the fate of Israel in the hands of the US as Jews have been forced to do for so long.

Not only do they have the right as heads of a sovereign state to take action, they have a moral obligation – to the nearly eight million citizens of Israel and to the generations of Jews over the centuries who tragically lost their lives because they lacked the means to defend themselves.