WarSclerotic

A Look At What May Be The Foundation For A U.S. Attack On Iran.

Following an eight year occupation that gutted Saddam Hussein’s Sunni regime, the U.S. has pulled out of Iraq to find North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il suddenly deceased, and Iran allegedly building a nuclear weapon.

The Axis of Evil didn’t exactly become foreign policy when George W. Bush coined the term in his State of the Union Address on January 29, 2002, but there seems reason to believe the U.S. could be eyeballing a foray into Iran.

There is the unprecedented missile collaboration between the U.S. and Israel slated for early next year that would keep incoming Iranian missile strikes in Israel to a minimum, following any attack on Tehran.

There is the near war-mongering article in Foreign Affairs by Matthew Kroenig that has everyone talking. Kroenig, an articulate and thoughtful writer apparently not given to wild extremes of opinion, makes the argument that an attack on Iran is “The Least Bad Option” and sums that reasoning up in his piece titled “Time to Attack Iran.”

There is the IAEA report that systematically lays out Iran’s apparent attempts to generate weapons grade radioactive material.

There is Leon Panetta saying three days ago that the U.S. will simply not allow Iran to have nuclear weapons. He told CBS News this would be “A red line,” for both the U.S. and Israel.

There is the $10 million bounty now being offered for information leading to the capture of the Iran-based al-Qaida money-man Ezedin Abdel Aziz Khalil.

And then, perhaps most interesting in its quiet release, there is yesterday’s ruling by a New York federal judge, who signed a default judgment holding the Taliban, al-qaida, and Iran responsible for the September 11 attacks.

Judge George Daniels ruled $100 billion is owed to victims families, and that Iran continues to “provide material support and resources to al-Qaida by providing a safe haven for al-Qaida leadership and rank-and-file al-Qaida members.”

None of this means we’ll wind up bombing Tehran, but if the U.S. plans to address the final ‘Axis of Evil,’ this could be the time it will do so.

Is it all for show? – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Comments from senior U.S. defense officials this week reflected the Obama administration’s attempt to heighten the feeling that it supports Israel. But that’s a long way from giving the nod to an Israeli attack on Iran.

By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff

After a few weeks of relative quiet, speculation renewed this week about whether someone – Israel or the United States – would attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. The catalyst was statements by two senior American defense figures, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey.

Asked by CBS News anchor Scott Pelley if Iran could obtain a nuclear weapon in 2012, the defense secretary replied, “It would probably be about a year before they can do it. Perhaps a little less.” He added that if Iran decides to go nuclear, the United States “will take whatever steps [are] necessary to stop it.” He added, “There are no options off the table.”

	A Syrian missile being launched during an exercise.
	Photo by: AFP

In an interview on CNN, Dempsey warned the Iranians not to “miscalculate our resolve,” because “any miscalculation could mean that we are drawn into conflict, and that would be a tragedy for the region and the world.” He noted that the United States is training for a potential military operation, and that Israel would not necessarily notify Washington before attacking Iran.

Senior officials in Jerusalem immediately declared that the change stemmed from the meeting between Defense Minister Ehud Barak and U.S. President Barack Obama last week. In the meeting, Barak told the president about the immediate danger the Iranians posed. Barak himself said this week that there’s still “time for diplomacy and very tough sanctions,” bragged about unprecedented American support for Israel, and claimed that the two countries see eye to eye on the situation.

But Israelis who took part in the Saban Forum in Washington earlier this month, where senior administration figures spoke, left worried about the extent of the differences on how to address the Iranian nuclear project. Their impression, based not least on Panetta’s skeptical tone, was that the U.S. administration is focused more on the domestic arena. Washington is extremely concerned that an Israeli attack on Iran will cause an oil crisis, driving up fuel costs and damaging the U.S. economy.

It currently seems unlikely that Obama will order an American attack on Iran. The bottom line is that there seems to be a year left to physically attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, before most of the critical assets are moved into underground bunkers. Yet there are also 10 months left until U.S. presidential elections. Obama wants to rein in Israel but not give American Jewry reason to think that he is undermining Israel’s security; he also doesn’t want a head-on clash with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

What we heard this week was most likely an attempt by the administration to tighten the embrace and increase the perception of support for Israel. That’s a long way from American support for an Israeli attack, let alone an American military initiative.

Losing control

U.S. attention was divided this week among Iran, North Korea (the West found out that its leader Kim Jong Il had died only two days later ), Syria and Egypt.

Haaretz reported this week that close to 15,000 people have now defected from the Syrian army. It’s true that this is only about one division’s worth of soldiers in an army of 250,000 troops, but for the first time the defectors include relatively senior officers. The number of casualties is climbing, and is now more than 5,000. On some days, more soldiers were killed than civilians. Huge demonstrations were held in central Damascus this week after the army killed a high-school girl participating in a demonstration against President Bashar Assad. Tens of thousands came out to denounce him in the capital – an exceptional event in the nine-month-long uprising. At least four demonstrators were killed in clashes in Damascus.

Between Monday and Wednesday, more than 250 people were killed in Syria, a large number even for this deadly conflict. The carnage took place immediately after Syria signed an agreement with the Arab League to halt the violence, which involved letting the League’s inspectors enter the country yesterday.

The agreement might give Assad’s regime some breathing room, but it’s hard to see how he will keep power in the long term. The Syrian uprising has been the bloodiest of all the Arab uprisings this year. The regime is losing its hold on remote areas. This is most visible in the northwestern Adlab district, Daraa in the south, and Homs, the heart of the resistance. The Free Syrian Army, a militia whose commanders are taking refuge in Turkey, is most active in these regions.

The Syrian military’s large-scale exercise this week is a cause for concern in the West and in Israel. Assad is threatening to respond with force if foreign intervention increases. Strategically, Assad’s regime could give way to one that is friendly to Israel; in any event, the president’s fall will be a serious blow to Iran. Operationally, there is good reason to fear that chemical weapons and missiles will find their way to Hezbollah and even to Sunni terrorist organizations.

Courting the center

Not only analysts in Israel and the West were caught by surprise by the results of the second round of Egyptian parliamentary elections: The Muslim Brotherhood, which was certain it would win (and did ), was also thrown for a loop by the challenge from the Salafist Al-Nour party. Founded only a few months ago, Al-Nour garnered 35 percent of the second round, bringing it into a clear contest with the Brotherhood ahead of the third round of voting for the Lower House and the first round for the Upper House.

Al-Nour has traversed a very short road politically and a very long one ideologically in the past few months. A movement based on emulating the Islamic “forefathers” (which is the meaning of the word salaf ), which rejects both innovations in Islam and modern forms of government, has adopted the modern rules of the game in its contest against the Muslim Brotherhood.

This week, as his party strove to moderate its image, Al-Nour’s spokesman made the surprising statement that it does not rule out dialogue with Israel, in contrast to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Egypt’s Islamist bloc has gleaned a full 70 percent of the vote so far. In comparison, in Tunisia a moderate Islamist party, Al Nahda, won 40 percent of the vote, with the remainder divided among the secular parties. Still, the sharp, open enmity between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists will make it difficult for them to form a coalition. The Brotherhood will likely try to form a parliamentary bloc with a few secular parties. But competition from Al-Nour will force its rival not to be seen as overly moderate religiously or politically. Thus, while Al-Nour will try to get votes by courting the center, the Brotherhood will take the opposite tack.

In the long term, Israel will have to monitor changes in the character of the Egyptian armed forces. Currently, the high command is still secular and still views the peace treaty with Israel as a strategic asset. If the army commanders try to undercut the religious movements and the new ruling parties, however, they may find themselves removed from power, as happened to their counterparts in Ankara.

Tough customer

In February, Chief of Staff Benny Gantz will have completed one-third of his term. After a stormy period, he has restored quiet among the General Staff. He displays sangfroid in handling special operations (and there are many of them ) and rare openness to criticism. The cult of personality around the chief of staff has also disappeared. The question is what imprint Gantz will leave behind.

Last week, he declared the establishment of a new unit, the Depth Corps, and a series of appointments, some of them surprising: Maj. Gen. (res. ) Shai Avital will command the corps; Brig. Gen. Nitzan Alon will be promoted to major general and become GOC Central Command; and Brig. Gen. Noam Tibon will be promoted to major general and serve as head of the Northern Command’s Corps.

The media’s labeling of the Depth Corps as the “Iran Corps” misses the mark: The new unit’s main task apparently will be coordinating the activity of the IDF’s special units in wartime, thereby reducing the load on the chief of staff and his deputy.

The choice of Avital – who has been a civilian for 10 years – puzzled many generals. No subject preoccupies the senior officers more than the chief of staff’s appointments. The best example, of course, is the affair named after Boaz Harpaz, who allegedly forged documents in a bid to keep Maj. Gen. Yoav Galant from being appointed chief of staff.

The officers believe Avital’s appointment was dictated by Barak, who was Avital’s commander in the elite commando unit Sayeret Matkal. “There are two possible explanations,” a senior officer says. “Either Barak forced the appointment on Benny, which is bad – or Benny decided on this silliness himself, which is even worse.”

The claim that Barak is running the army behind Gantz’s back is unfounded. Yet Gantz may think that bringing Avital back to the army (a move which Barak certainly supports ) will pave the way for Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel to become the next commander of the air force, despite Netanyahu’s support for his own military secretary, Maj. Gen. Yohanan Locker.

Gantz is not a weak chief of staff. His relations with Barak are not without tension and disagreements (God knows, the defense minister is a tough customer ). He’s also not argumentative, but this should not be held against him. On the other hand, it’s not clear what prompted Gantz to declare Sunday, a few hours after the criticism emerged about Avital, that “the appointments are all mine.” Speaking at a ceremony honoring a new military college commander, Gantz also suddenly referred to the Harpaz affair.

There was nothing accidental about that. Gantz believes he knows where the allegations of his weakness came from. Supporters of the former chief of staff, Gabi Ashkenazi, have an interest in promoting this theory, because it ostensibly proves that the problem lies with the defense minister: Barak abuses all chiefs of staff, and the only difference is the military’s response. That explanation is aimed not at the state comptroller but at the media. The state comptroller, Micha Lindenstrauss, already knows what happened in the Harpaz affair. Ashkenazi, who recently testified before the comptroller again, probably already knows he will be the big loser.

The publicity campaign is intended to reduce the affair’s damage – from a knockout to a loss of points – and the main way to do this is through the media. In the public sector, Ashkenazi still holds the advantage. It’s doubtful whether Barak, even if he is partially exonerated in the final report, will be able to leverage it into any more of a political success than getting Netanyahu to guarantee his place on the next Likud Knesset list.

UPDATE: – Report Claiming U.S. Missiles ‘hit Iranian village’ actually from 2003 – Salem-News.Com.

The Daily Mail released a story from 2003 as a new report, there is no current strike on Iran.

(LONDON) – We have determined that the following story was carried in error by the Daily Mail in the UK. It is a 2003 report that was somehow recycled, we presented the material as unconfirmed, we now confirm that the information is carried in error.

The report indicated that a pair of U.S. missiles had hit a target in Iran and that the source was the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA).

A scan of their English site did not reveal the information and that was setting off alarms, however there have been plenty of cases in the past where news is carried in Arabic and other languages and simply not carried on the English versions of their news Websites.

We are in an age when Iran is continually threatened by Israel and the United States, and propaganda about the country’s ambitions, which are almost always extremely out of context with Iranian media, call perpetually for action against Iran.

US earmarks $235 million for Israel’s defense systems – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Washington to allocate unprecedented sum for development of anti-missile safeguards, including David’s Sling, Arrow systems

Yitzhak Benhorin

WASHINGTON – The Unites States has announced it will allocate $235 million for the development of safeguards against rockets and missiles that could be launched towards Israel by Hezbollah and Iran.

A large part of the funds will go towards the development of the David’s Sling system, designed to intercept medium- to long-range rockets and cruise missiles, and the Arrow 2 and 3 systems against long-range ballistic missiles.

This unprecedented sum comes at an unexpected time, while the American government is dealing with large budget cuts, including at the Pentagon.

Iron Dome (Shaul Golan, Yedioth Ahronoth)

However, Pentagon officials were the ones who requested that Congress approve a $106 million aid budget for Israel’s defense systems against missiles, on top of the Iron Dome budget.

Congress chose to nearly double that amount, approving a budget of $235 million for 2012, amounting to $25 million more than in 2011.

This budget, however, is not considered to be part of the American aid to Israel, but rather, goes towards military cooperation between both countries, with each one allocating a similar amount in developing anti-missile systems.

The US’ defense assistance to Israel is estimated at over $3 billion for 10 years, beginning in 2007, two-thirds of which end up in the hands of America’s military industries.  

Battalion will keep IAF bases operational in a… JPost – Defense.

    Fearing that Hezbollah and Syrian missile attacks will target its bases in a future war, the Israel Air Force has decided to establish a special battalion at all bases that will be responsible for ensuring operational continuity.

In recent years, the air force has dramatically increased the number of exercises it carries out to prepare the bases for missile attacks. At the Ramat David Air Force Base in the Jezreel Valley, for example, squadrons have conducted over 100 drills since the beginning of the year, an increase of close to 200 percent compared to the same period in 2010.

Recently, IAF commander Maj.-Gen. Ido Nehushtan decided to establish a battalion that will be responsible for protecting each base, including making sure that runways damaged in bombings are quickly repaired and that air crews are able to rearm and refuel when landing in between sorties.

The IAF assessment is that Hezbollah, Syria and Hamas will direct their missile fire at air force bases during a future conflict in an effort to undermine the IAF’s ability to retaliate.

During the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Hezbollah tried to hit Ramat David, the air force’s largest base in the North, and during Operation Cast Lead in 2009, Hamas fired rockets at bases in the South.

A senior IAF officer said this week that it was “critical, though, that we know how to continue operating despite [missile] attacks.”

Until now, the unit responsible for operational continuity was the Aviation Squadron, which provides services to the combat squadrons including management of the control tower and perimeter security around the base.

Some bases have invested in dispersing resources – such as fuel and munition depots – throughout the compound so that if one is hit, a second site will be available.

Nehushtan has designated “operational continuity” as one of the IAF’s primary objectives over the past year. The drills are sometimes held on a weekly basis, and pyrotechnics, such as fireworks, mock explosions and real fires, are used to make the scenarios as realistic as possible.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 23, 2011, 1:40 PM (GMT+02:00)

Victims carried from Damascus scene of terror

The Sunni Muslim war on the Shiite-Allawite ruler of Syria and the Shiite-led regime of Iraq has gained deadly momentum in the last 48 hours, debkafile‘s military sources report. Friday, Dec. 23, two suicide bombers blew up cars loaded with explosives at the Syrian state security building and intelligence center in the heart of Damascus, killing at least 40 military personnel and civilians, and injuring dozens more. It was the first such attack to take place in the Syrian capital in the 10-month uprising against Bashar Assad.

In Baghdad, Thursday, more than 70 people died and at least 200 were badly hurt by a series of roadside bombs, an exploding ambulance and sticky bombs. Most were directed against Shiite targets.

Since Assad and the Iraqi Prime Minister Nour al-Maliki share the same backer, Tehran, the spate of terror which erupted this week was not just a trigger for civil war in both their countries but signaled a new and violent round in the Sunni-Shiite struggle for control of the Middle East.

Standing to one side are Iran, the Damascus and Baghdad rulers, Hizballah and the Palestinian extremist Hamas and Jihad Islami. Ranged against them are the Muslim Brotherhood and elements or associates of al Qaeda. They are backed with arms, funds, training and fighting strength by several Sunni Arab regimes, chiefly Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, Jordan and Libya.

Our counter-terror sources report an expanding flow of extremist Sunni infiltrators from Iraq into Syria and Lebanon. Not all are al Qaeda, as Assad claims. Some belong to the “Awakening Councils” which have evolved into the Iraqi Sunni tribal community’s principal military arm. They were originally set up by Gen. David Petraeus, presently CIA Director, to fight al Qaeda. With US funding, training and commanders, these Sunni tribal fighters were successful from 2006 to 2008 in beating al Qaeda into the ground.
But the final US military departure from Iraq this week left the Awakening Council fighters high and dry by. Prime Minister al-Maliki, who takes his orders from Tehran, refused to honor the contract to pay their wages and their families are destitute.

As a result, many Iraqi Sunni fighting men decided to join up with al Qaeda. Their pursuit of a source of arms and a livelihood is taking them across borders into Syria and Lebanon where they join the ranks of anti-Assad Sunni militias, including the Free Syrian Army.
Seasoned in the ways of violence, they were fully competent to carry out the deadly terrorist attacks in Baghdad and Damascus. More such outrages are certain to come, adding a whole new dimension to the popular campaign to unseat Bashar Assad as well as post-war Iraq.

Two blasts hit Syrian security sites in Da… JPost – Middle East.

    Two booby-trapped cars blew up at Syrian security sites in Damascus on Friday, killing several civilians and soldiers,state television said. Witnesses reported hearing large blasts rock the capital.

“The terrorist attacks left a number of martyrs, both civilian and military. Most of the victims were civilian,” it said in a news flash.

Syrian state television said initial investigations indicated that al-Qaida was behind the attacks. A witness from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said he heard heavy gunfire break out after the blasts.

The attacks came a day after the first wave of an Arab League observation mission landed in Damascus to prepare for an monitoring team that will check if Syria is implementing a peace plan to halt months of bloodshed.

Syrian security forces have launched a fierce crackdown on nine months of anti-government protests.

In recent months, the peaceful pro-democracy movement has been overshadowed by pockets of armed insurgency that have begun to launch what they call defensive attacks against Syrian forces.

Friday’s attacks hit a state security administration building and a local security branch, state television said.

Last month, a small blast was reported near a Syrian intelligence building in Damascus, but there was little damage.

DEBKA.

The Middle East saw abnormally heavy NATO air traffic this week: Unmarked cargo planes landing in waves at air bases in Turkey were quietly airlifting fighters and weapons for the anti-Assad Free Syrian Army-FSA from Libya.
The fighters are being recruited from the various Libyan militias which fought the Qaddafi regime. About 3,000 have volunteered to fight with anti-Assad forces, accepting the purse offered of $1,000 plus a monthly wage of $450.
Upon landing in Turkey, the Libyan fighters and the arms shipments are trucked by night to FSA bases, most of which are located in the Iskenderun region of Turkey on the border of northwestern Syria
The arms distributed to the rebels are flown in from Tripoli and Benghazi, Libya, as well as Bulgaria, Romania and Montenegro. In Libya, arms dealers go around the big arsenals remaining there and buy up weapons on the lists received from Turkey. In East Europe, the arms merchants follow lists received from Western intelligence agents and local military officials.
The estimated size of the Free Syrian Army fluctuates wildly between 5,000 and 15,000 fighting men. The figure is hard to pin down – not least because of the varying rate of defections from the Syrian military.
Of late, the stream of Syrian deserters reaching these camps has swelled from a few dozen a week to several hundred.
The Free Syrian Army doesn’t stand a chance without foreign back-up
According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s military and intelligence experts, the fact that this renegade army of Syrian army deserters, mercenaries and volunteers, has begun organizing into military frameworks of companies, battalions and brigades, indicates it numbers thousands.
Still, our military sources do not credit reports of thousands of deserters per week. Western intelligence officials believe that no more than 4,000 soldiers have so far gone AWOL.
They receive military training from Western, Turkish and Arab army instructors, as well as civilian security consultants and ex-special forces trainers from the US, Britain, France, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Qatar.
Every camp has a Turkish commander whose staff report to the US joint headquarters directing the Syrian Revolt from the Turkish town of Gaziantep, as we reported last week.
Present too at the training facilities are Western intelligence officers, some of them American, who brief FSA units on the various battle sectors before they enter Syria at the end of their training.
Any expectations of this mini-force managing to turn the tide of the war against Assad are dismissed by DEBKA-Net-Weekly‘s military experts as unrealistic in view of the inner structure of the Syrian army.
Of the 300,000 men in uniform, 200,000 are career officers and soldiers and loyal to the Assad regime; only 100,000 are conscripts. Mass desertions would only happen if the command echelon broke up or rose up for a coup against the regime. There are no indications that either eventuality is anywhere near.
Russia feeds Assad spy satellite intelligence
Is an invasion of Syria by the small rebel force probable? It is hard to see the FSA managing an orderly military incursion unless it is part of a major Turkish army and air operation carving out a military buffer area and enforcing no fly zones – at least in northern and central Syria.
The cards stacked against the deserter force were further augmented this week: Two Russian spy satellites monitoring military movements in the eastern Mediterranean, Turkey, Israel and Syria began feeding Syrian President Bashar Assad‘s strategists precise intelligence on FSA units in Turkey and rebel concentrations within Syrian cities, our military sources report.
This new resource enabled the special Syrian armored forces stationed along the Syria-Turkey border to waylay the deserters moving back and forth, capturing some and liquidating many.
The daily death toll of victims gunned down day by day on Syria’s borders with Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan may not be counted in hundreds as claimed by Syrian opposition activists and the FSA but certainly amounts to dozens – and is rising. Since the Syrian ruler gained access to reliable Russian intelligence, he no longer seeks to capture deserters for information and has ordered his troops to shoot them on sight where they stand.
The presence of Russian satellites over the eastern Mediterranean also presages the imminent docking at the Syrian port of Tartus of the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov and its fleet escort.
Assad prepares to fight outside Syrian borders
Assad is now preparing for the Western-Turkish-Arab effort against his regime to move into its next stage: The expansion of attacks on his forces from Turkey and Lebanon amid a major effort to spur the cities of Aleppo and Damascus to join the revolt against him.
To prepare for this, Tuesday, Dec. 20, the Syrian army conducted a large-scale air force, navy, special forces and air defense exercise. They practiced tactics for repelling foreign invasions by land, sea and air.
Units of Air Force fighters, fighter-bombers, fire support helicopters, air defense units and naval warships, took part in the exercise.
An airdrop by Syrian Special Forces was also staged to warn potential invaders that the Syrian ruler had no intention of respecting frontiers and would fight the enemy inside Turkey or any other country from which an incursion was staged.

DEBKA.

Nouri al-Maliki

The final American military exit from Iraq on Dec. 18, conferred on a belligerent Tehran a strategic gift beyond its wildest dreams: wide open overland corridors to Saudi Arabia, Israel and Jordan, as well as a direct military road link from Tehran to Damascus.
Seizing the moment, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei established a new command for all the special and intelligence units operating outside its borders at about the same time as Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki wound up his talks with President Barack Obama on Dec. 14 in Washington.
The unified command is headed by Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, commander of the al Qods Brigades which is responsible for Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) overseas covert and terrorist operations.
He now has the added task of running the special units charged with buttressing Shiite domination of the Baghdad government and securing direct military routes through Iraq to Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
Israel answered Tehran the next day, Dec. 15 when Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz launched a new Israel Defense Forces-IDF command for “depth” missions in distant locations.
The new corps, said the IDF spokesman, would give Israel military operations “strategic depth.” It is headed by Maj. Gen. Shai Avital, a former special operations commander who retired from the armed forces in 2002.
The new corps “could assist in mobilizing special forces in the Iranian nuclear context,” said the statement.
Equally important, it will chart and execute operations related to the covert war on al Qaeda and Iran in such places as Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Sudan and the countries of the Horn of Africa and East Africa.
Saudis tighten Gulf military and financial ranks against Iran
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf emirates reacted with strong words and the closing of ranks.
Monday, Dec. 19, Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz opened the annual Gulf Cooperation Council-GCC meeting in Riyadh warning that its members’ security was under threat: “No doubt you all know that our safety and security is targeted and so the Gulf Arab states must close ranks as “a single entity,” he said. “We learn from history and experience not to stand still when faced with reality,” said the King. “Whoever does that will end up at the back of the caravan trail and be lost. That is why I ask of you today to move beyond the stage of cooperation and into the stage of unity in a single entity,” said Abdullah.
With these words, the Saudi king decisively spurned Tehran’s bid for an anti-US partnership which Iranian intelligence minister Heidar Moslehi put before Saudi Crown Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz in Riyadh on Dec. 12.
The statement ending the GCC summit Dec. 21 called on Iran to “stop these policies and practices… and stop meddling in the internal affairs of the Gulf nations.”
By “single entity,” King Abdullah had two steps in mind: Gulf cooperation in developing nuclear weapons and the creation of a unified GCC military command, approved Tuesday, Dec. 20, to orchestrate the preparations for war with Iran.
In fact, only two members have real military muscle to contribute – Saudi Arabia alone has military forces for operations outside the Gulf, while the United Arab Emirates has the only air force with warplanes for the “single entity” command. Therefore, the summit’s final resolution boiled down to all members putting their hands in their pockets to stump up the funds for arming the bloc with a nuclear weapon. The inference drawn by our sources is that this effort is well advanced.
Gulf Arabs signify disapproval of the way US exited Iraq
In the wake of the Iranian and Israeli generals, the Saudi king appointed his incoming Defense Minister Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz head of the just-created GCC joint command. Each of the six members will appoint a professional military man as deputy.
With an eye on these developments, the Obama administration dispatched Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs of Staff, to Riyadh. But the Gulf rulers, including the Saudi defense minister, declined to meet with him. They joined forces to signify their disapproval of the way the US departed Iraq which left Baghdad under Tehran’s thumb and show Washington it had no role to play in GCC nuclear and military policies.
Gen. Dempsey had to be content with meeting officials of the Saudi Ministry of Defense officials and National Guard and military officers of Gulf armies.
In his comment on the snub, the US general told reporters traveling with him: “I’ve been very clear with all of our partners – Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and others – [that] if you’re concerned about the future of Iraq, then we should all work together to help ensure that we achieve a brighter future for Iraq…[If Iraq] is left unattended or left to its own devices,” he said, “then countries that could have helped the newly sovereign nation shouldn’t come back and complain about the outcome.”
Al Maliki begins purge of Sunni politicians
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s intelligence sources report that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf partners are especially peeved by the discovery – largely from Saudi intelligence agencies – that the Obama administration chose to disregard the Iranian takeover of Baghdad out of US strategic concerns relating to Iran, Syria and Turkey.
They learned that US President refused to take issue with the presence of Hadi al-Ameri, Iraq’s Trade Minister in the Al Maliki entourage he received at the White House last week, although he knew about al-Ameri’s notoriously close friendship with Iran’s Supreme Leader and the al Qods chief Gen. Soleimani.
Gulf officials complain that US officials were deaf to their contention that the ex-terrorist mastermind’s reception in the White House may not mean much to the Americans but was received in the region as a resounding statement capable of releasing Iraq’s endemic sectarian demons.
And indeed, Tehran and al-Maliki, exploiting what they saw as American weakness, were already moving forward on their three-pronged scheme for grabbing power in post-war Iraq.
On Dec. 19, just 24 hours day after the last US military convoy rolled out of the country, the Shiite prime minister obtained a warrant for the arrest of Sunni Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi. Signed by five judges, it charged al-Hashemi with offences under Article 4 of the anti-terrorism law and barred him from leaving the country.
The Sunni leader’s thereupon fled to the self-governing Kurdish province in northern Iraq.
Maliki demanded his handover or else, he threatened, the Iraqi army would launch an offensive against the Kurdish Peshmerga army.
DEBK-Net-Weekly’s sources report that Maliki also saw his chance of a showdown to challenge Kurdish control of the oil city of Kirkuk which the US military presence had kept at bay.
Tehran wields al-Maliki for domination of government, clergy and street
As Tehran and its Iraqi puppets behaved as though they no longer had anything to fear, fifteen deadly bomb explosions ripped through Baghdad Thursday, Dec. 22, killing 67 people and injuring more than 200 – an ominous sign of the sectarian strife – or even partition – awaiting the country if its current regime goes through with its master plan to install Iran as Iraq’s hegemon and Shiite Islam as the ruling faith.
One part if this plan is to push Sunni Muslim politicians like Tareq al-Hashemi out of the ruling machinery in Baghdad and segregate them in the western enclave of Al Anbar province far from the corridors of national power.
To implement the second part, DEBKA-Net-Weekly reports, Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, a high-ranking radical Iranian cleric close to Khamenei, was imported from the Iranian holy city of Qom to the Iraqi shrine town of Najef. By this move, the Iranian clerical hierarchy of Qom assumed control of Iraq’s Shiite religious centers and asserted its supremacy over the Shiite world’s most important centers of pilgrimage.
The third segment devolved on the pro-Iranian radical Iraqi Shiite cleric and long US antagonist Moqtada al-Sadr, whose Mahdi Army militia controls Iraq’s Shiite masses, just as Hizballah rules the streets of Lebanon.
Our sources report that al Sadr only pretended to seek cooperation with the United States, a deception he dropped after the last American soldier left the country.
Tehran counts on him – like Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon – to keep the lid on people power in the streets of Iraq and avert popular Arab uprisings that could spill over into Iran.
Tehran has therefore moved fast to slot its Shiite pawn Nouri al Maliki unopposed into the top rung of Iraq’s ruling political and military systems in Baghdad; put Ayatollah Sharoudi in charge of its religious establishment and deployed Moqtada al Sadr ready to brandish a whip to keep heads down on Iraqi streets.

DEBKA.

Barack Obama and Ehud Barak

During the half hour they talked at the Gaylord Hotel in National Harbor, Maryland, last Friday, Dec. 16, US President Barack Obama received from Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak the latest intelligence on Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Barak disclosed that Iran has started work on the assembly of a nuclear weapon and advanced surreptitiously on a program for developing a plutonium nuclear weapon.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s Washington sources report that President Obama did not fall off his chair because it confirmed the data reaching him in the last week of November. For further evidence, the RQ-170 reconnaissance drone was assigned its first flight over Iran – only to be downed on Dec. 4 by means yet to be fully clarified.
Since then, the US and Israel have resorted to alternative resources to determine whether Iran has indeed started building components for a nuclear bomb or warhead.
Then, on Tuesday, Dec. 20, Dennis Ross, until a month ago President Obama’s senior adviser on the Middle East including Iran, noted that Israel had reason to be concerned about enrichment at Qom (a reference to the Fordo underground site near that religious city). He cited Iran’s accumulation of low-enriched uranium, its decision to enrich to nearly 20 percent “when there is no justification for it,” its hardening of nuclear sites, and other “activities related to possible weaponization” – all factors that “affect the Israeli calculus and ours,” said Ross.
“Qom is important, but it is worth remembering that IAEA inspectors go there, and I would not isolate Qom and say this alone is the Israeli red-line to spur a military response.
Iran embarks on nuclear weaponization
Ross’s reference to “weaponization” activities and other sites beside Qom as an Israel red line spurring a military response are firm indications that the White House knows for sure that Iran has embarked on the assembly of a nuclear weapon and that Fordo is not its only clandestine weapon development site.
Using this information, Israel calculated that Iran had drastically reduced its timeline for building a nuclear weapon from two years to six months. If Iran’s rulers so decided, Iran could have an operational weapon ready to go by early June or July 2012.
Barak did not ask the US President how he intended acting on the new intelligence because the way Obama uses the Iranian nuclear issue for his re-election campaign is outside Israel’s ken; the US president, for his part, did not inquire whether an Israeli strike against Iran was any nearer. He left the two questions open, commenting only that the situation was extremely serious.
So Israel’s leaders don’t know for sure if Obama is planning to strike Iran – either to keep a nuclear weapon out of the Islamic Republic’s hands or to save his campaign for a second term as president from being trapped in a morass of manipulative Iranian tricks.
As Israel reads the situation in Tehran, Iran’s leaders have gained enormous confidence from their capture of the US reconnaissance drone. They appear to believe that laying hands on American stealth technology arms them for repelling a US attack, or at least reducing to a minimum the amount of damage it would cause.
After talking to the Israeli defense minister, Obama said: “The cooperation between our militaries has never been stronger.”
Barak commented, “Both countries agree that a nuclear Iran is unacceptable.”
US and Israel in sync on military action
The US president’s reply to Barak came three days after they met, Monday, Dec. 19, when US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta informed CBS interviewer Scott Pelley that Iran had reached a point where they can assemble a bomb in a year – or potentially less.
Pelley: So are you saying that Iran can have a nuclear weapon in 2012?
Panetta: “It would probably be about a year before they can do it. Perhaps a little less. But one proviso, Scott, is if they have a hidden facility somewhere in Iran that may be enriching fuel…
Pelley: So that they can develop a weapon even more quickly.
Panetta: On a faster track…
Pelley: Than we believe.
Panetta: That’s correct.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly reveals that this “hidden facility somewhere in Iran” was a reference by Panetta to the new intelligence data Barak had put before President Obama.
It is reasonable to assume therefore that, under the impact of this interchange, the US president authorized his defense secretary to enunciate the reversal the administration has effected in its position on a possible US attack on Iran’s nuclear program – although it may not be the last such change.
Panetta accordingly dropped his former warnings of the grave consequences of an attack for US interests and the global economy and said suddenly: ‘Well, we share the same common concern. The United States does not want Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. That’s a red line for us and that’s a red line, obviously, for the Israelis. If we have to do it we will deal with it.”
Panetta’s bombshell dismays Washington opponents of military strike
In other words, the “red line” for America, defined in his Brookings Institute speech of Dec. 2, has moved from free trade through Persian Gulf waters to the same groove as Israel’s, namely, the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran per se.
Panetta’s new stance landed on Washington with bombshell force. Our Washington sources report dismay in senior US intelligence circles including CIA director David Petraeus, and in the military and defense lobby which actively opposes a US or Israel attack on Iran’s nuclear program.
Pentagon officials asserted that the Defense Secretary’s prediction of an Iranian nuclear bomb within a year was based on “a highly aggressive timeline” and actions which Iran has not yet taken. There was no cause to revise the timeline, they insisted: It still stood at two or three years from now.
George Little, the Pentagon press secretary, stressed the Defense Secretary had stated clearly that there was no sign Iran had made the decision to go ahead on a nuke.
Mr. Little said, “He was asked to comment on prospective and aggressive timelines on Iran’s possible production of nuclear weapons – and he said if, and only if, they made such a decision. He didn’t say that Iran would, in fact, have a nuclear weapon in 2012.”
The Pentagon official went on to argue that the International Atomic Energy Agency-IAEA was still in Iran and its inspectors had “good access to Iran’s continuing production of low-enriched uranium.”
Should Iran choose to “break out” – divert low-enriched uranium to produce weapons-grade highly enriched uranium – the inspectors could detect it. “We would retain sufficient time under any such scenario to take appropriate action,” he said.
Losing the RQ-170 did not end US intelligence efforts in Iran
According to usual rules governing such dust-ups in Washington, after the Panetta interview sounded the alarm siren, the ensuing play-down of his comments ought to have sounded the all-clear and settled the dust.
But this is not what happened.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources report that someone in the US capital decided not to let the opponents of an attack on Iran win the battle over the revised White House position. So the Pentagon press secretary was not allowed to push Panetta’s words back into the old plenty-of-time-yet frame; nor did he get the last word.
From Afghanistan, Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs, came forward Wednesday, Dec. 21 to reinforce the Defense Secretary’s comments and add a new dimension:
Speaking on CNN, the general issued a warning to Iran.
“My biggest worry is they will miscalculate our resolve,” Dempsey said. “Any miscalculation could mean that we are drawn into conflict, and that would be a tragedy for the region and the world.”
The top US soldier made the first authoritative reference to the loss of the reconnaissance drone downed by Iran earlier this month, after senior Iranian intelligence and military officers claimed that with reverse engineering they had gained the stealth and fighter jet technology for repelling a US attack on their nuclear sites.
Dempsey said the loss of the RQ-170 was not the end of US efforts to figure out what Iran is doing.
“Of course we are gathering intelligence against Iran by a variety of means. It would be rather imprudent of us not to try to understand what a nation who has declared itself to be an adversary of the United States is doing.”
Two senior US visitors arrive to step up cooperation with Israel
This week, Obama took two more steps for tightening military cooperation with Israel. Lt. Gen. Frank Gorenc, commander of the US’s Third Air Force, arrived to finalize plans for the biggest joint missile defense exercise the US and Israel have ever held this spring. Several thousand American soldiers will be deployed in Israel for the exercise.
It will include the establishment of U.S. command posts in Israel and IDF command posts at EUCOM headquarters in Germany – with the ultimate goal of establishing joint task forces in the event of a large-scale conflict in the Middle East.
Tuesday, Dec. 20, also saw the arrival of Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s right-hand, together with Robert Einhorn, the State Department special adviser on nonproliferation. The two came to tie up the diplomatic ends of the decisions reached by President Obama and Defense Minister Barak at their meeting in Washington.
Einhorn, the administration’s top expert on Iran’s nuclear activities, said just before the visit that the situation over Iran’s nuclear program was becoming increasingly worrying and an urgent diplomatic solution needed to be found. “Iran is violating international obligations and norms,” he said. “It is becoming a pariah state.” He added: “The timeline for its nuclear program is beginning to get shorter, so it is important we take these strong steps on an urgent basis.” Einhorn did not elaborate on those steps.