WarSclerotic

Deaths in Syria hours before observer visit – YouTube.

Arab League observer: Assad committing genocide in Syria – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Around 50 Arab League monitors, headed by Sudanese General Mohammed al-Dabi, began arriving in Syria to start inspecting areas gripped by violence.

By DPA

A member of the Arab League observer team in Damascus told Al Arabiya broadcaster Monday that “what’s happening in Syria is genocide.”

“This is a regime is taking revenge on its people,” MostasharMahgoub told the channel by telephone.

Mahgoub was injured in security forces shelling in Homs city activists said. However, he refused to say how and where he was wounded and it was also not clear whether he was in the restive city of Homs or in Damascus during the call.

	Mourners pray at a mass funeral Saturday, Dec. 24, 2011 for 44 people killed in twin suicide bombings in Damascus, Syria.
	Photo by: AP

Around 50 Arab League monitors, headed by Sudanese General Mohammed al-Dabi, began arriving in Syria to start inspecting areas gripped by violence, according to activists.

According to an Arab diplomat based in Beirut “preparations were being made for the observers to go to Homs on Tuesday, but due to the current situation, intensive contacts are being made to speed the visit.”

Homs, in central Syria, has been a focal point of the government crackdown on anti-government demonstrations. A nine-member advance Arab team arrived in Damascus last week, to prepare for the monitors.

The arrival of the observers in Syria is part of a deal agreed to by President Bashar Assad’s government with the Arab League last week.

It calls for the withdrawal of the Syrian army and militias as well as rebel forces from the streets, the release of detainees and an end to all forms of violence. A total of 150 Arab monitors are due to arrive in Damascus by the end of the month.

During the Monday shelling in Homs, at least 25 people were killed, Homs-based activist Omar Homsi told dpa by phone. He said that 21 of them are from the Baba Amr neighborhood, where 20 houses were destroyed.

Some 40 others were wounded, most them women and children, he said, adding that most of the injured could not be taken to the hospitals due to the intensity of the shelling.

“The situation is frightening and the shelling is the most intense of the last three days,” the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said in a statement.

“The observers must head immediately to the martyrs’ district of Baba Amr to stop the assassinations and meet with the people so that they witness the crimes being perpetrated by the Syrian regime,” the group said.

Activists posted gruesome pictures of human remains on the streets inside the Baba Amr neighborhood on their websites.

Footage posted online showed the aftermath of the shelling, with bleeding corpses of at least four young men and a woman screaming for help from the international community.

Omar Idlibi, a prominent Syrian activist in exile, expressed dismay over the mission of the observers and blamed the Arab League for the delay in their mission.”

“Scores of people are being killed in the streets and the Syrian government is still stalling and the Arab League is still not doing anything,” Idlibi said.

Report: Arab League official wounded in Syria shelling – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Mustashar Mahgoub was injured in an attack in Homs; locals report tanks firing machineguns and mortars into residential areas.

By DPA and Reuters

A member of the Arab League observer mission to Syria was wounded Monday in shelling in the Homs province, a prominent Syrian activist told DPA.

Mustashar Mahgoub was injured in an attack in Baba Amr neighborhood, according to the activist, who requested anonymity.

	A Syrian Kurdish boy carries a banner during a protest outside the Arab League office in Beirut, Lebanon, Sunday, Dec. 25, 2011.
	Photo by: AP

Mahgoub, in an interview with Al Arabiya television, said he was wounded but did not say how and when. “Our people managed to take four observers from their Damascus Hotel (Sham Hotel) without the notification of the Syrian government on Sunday night to show them the reality of what is happening inside the neighborhoods of Baba Amr and Khailidyeh,” the activist said.

“While we were touring the area the shelling started and he was wounded by the fire of the Syrian security forces,” he added.

Meanwhile, amateur video shot by anti-government Syrian activists showed carnage in Baba Amr, and locals said they were afraid to leave their homes on Monday as army tanks appeared to fire machineguns and mortars into residential areas.

Four bodies of what appeared to be male civilians lay bloodied under fallen power lines in a narrow alleyway of the district. “This is Baba Amr, December 26, 2011, and the random shelling is still falling on the neighborhood,” a voice shouted over women’s screams. “These are the martyrs thrown in the streets. Allahu akbar (God is great),” the man’s voice shouted.

Residents said they were too terrified to venture outside. One described to Reuters a state of siege. “They’ve been doing a few surprise rounds of firing every few hours since early morning,” construction worker Tamir told Reuters by telephone.

Three other video segments said to have been filmed in Homs on Monday morning showed two tanks facing in opposite directions next to an apartment block. One was firing a heavy weapon, possibly a tank-mounted mortar.

A third tank, its commander standing up in the sand-bagged turret, maneuvered along the street. There were constant bursts of heavy machinegun fire and the sound of sniper rifles.

A third video showing a tank recorded a loud explosion, like the sound of its main gun firing. Finally, after a flash and a loud blast, the screen went white.

“If we go out, we have to stay in the alley our house is on. If we move past there we might get shot at,” construction worker Tamir said. “Two people in the neighbouhood were just wounded by machineguns.”

Bunker buster bombs bought from US may be defe… JPost – Defense.

    Israel is seeking clarifications from the United States to ensure that bunker buster bombs it recently purchased are not carrying defective fuses that could cause their premature detonation.

The laser-guided bomb, GBU-28, weighs about 5,000 pounds and is reportedly capable of penetrating 100 feet of dirt or alternatively 20 feet of concrete. The bomb was initially developed in the 1990s to penetrate hardened Iraqi command centers located underground.

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Israel ordered its first batch of the GBU-28 in 2005 and reportedly received them a year later. In 2007 it asked the Pentagon for another batch of bombs but the delivery was delayed due to concern in Washington that Israel planned to use the bunker buster bomb to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, some of which are located in fortified bunkers.

In September, Newsweek reported that the Obama administration had recently decided to authorize the delivery of 55 GBU-28 bombs as part of an aid package aimed at improving ties with Jerusalem.

Concerns in Israel now are that some of the bombs supplied to Israel over the years could have been installed with defective fuses.

On Friday, the US Justice Department announced that it had reached a settlement with Kaman Corp. which allegedly substituted a fuse in four lots of fuses made for the bombs. Under the settlement, Kaman Corp. will pay the government $4.75 million.

The US government alleged in its lawsuit against the company that the installation of defective fuses could lead to the premature detonation of the bomb and cause accidental misfires.

In September 2010, the Defense Department announced that it had awarded Kaman Precision Products, a subsidiary of Kaman Corp, a $35 million contract to manufacture fuses for four foreign countries. One of those countries was likely Israel. South Korea is also in possession of the GBU-28.

Israel first filed a request to purchase the GBU-28 in the 1990s but only received Pentagon approval for the sale in 2005 in a deal estimated at about $30 million. According to Jane’s, it received 100 units of the bomb in 2006, during the Second Lebanon War and as part of a US weapons shipment to help Israel destroy hardened Hezbollah targets.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 25, 2011, 7:37 PM (GMT+02:00)

Iran’s Velayati 90 navy drill

Iranian Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi Monday, Dec. 26, replied to Sunday’s debkafile report which revealed Tehran’s plan to use its big 10-day naval drill east of the Strait of Hormuz to test its vaunted cyber intelligence prowess against US warships. He said Iran has great capabilities in “all fields of national defense, including the use of intelligence drones as well as decoding of such aircraft and countering electronic and covert warfare.” The Islamic Republic, he said, could employ aerial drones to counter any potential US-led covert war.
Vahidi’s words implied two key points: That Tehran did not expect the US to carry out a lone strike against its nuclear facilities but in conjunction with fellow NATO member and Israel. And two, that the Islamic Republic has convinced itself that by downing the US stealth drone RQ-170, it has acquired all the technology necessary for repelling penetrations and attacks by drones and warplanes with stealth capabilities.
While boasting of its ability to overcome a “US-led covert war” by means of electronic and intelligence means, Iran’s defense minister avoided making the same boast about a full-scale war offensive.

This, say debkafile‘s military sources, is because Tehran has reason to believe that Washington too in another strategic turnaround has stopped thinking in terms of a full-scale war against Iran and switched to a selective approach, as disclosed in an article by Matthew Kroenig he published in the latest issue of the authoritative Foreign Affairs.

According to this approach, the US could disable and demolish Iran’s known nuclear facilities by targeting select facilities, such as “the UF6 plant at Isfahan which converts yellowcake into uranium hexafluoride gas; the heavy-water reactor at Arak and various centrifuge-manufacturing sites near Natanz and Tehran, all of which are located above ground and are highly vulnerable to air strikes.”

Gen. Vahidi’s remarks aimed at warning the United States that Iran is also capable of trouncing covert strikes on those sites. He said that Iran has great capabilities in all fields of defense and will develop and maintain its accomplishments which have been achieved during the most difficult circumstances and under full, comprehensive sanctions.”

Sunday, Dec. 24, debkafile reported:  Iran launched its 10-day naval drill “Velayati (Supremacy) 90” east of the strategic Strait of Hormuz Saturday, Dec. 24, to show its muscle – first of all to Washington in view of the Obama administration radically changed stance in favor of an attack to destroy the Islamic Republic’s nuclear weapons program.

It is a message that, notwithstanding the proximity of US warships in the area, Tehran can close the Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz to the passage of one third of the world’s oil consumption; and if attacked, it will not just hit back at  US targets in the region and Israel; Saudi Arabia and Jordan are additionally in its sights.

Israel was informed of the US policy reversal on Iran in the one-on-one talk President Barak Obama held with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak at Gaylord Hotel, Maryland on Dec. 16.

For Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Barak, the tightening of military coordination on Iran between the US and their government is a signal achievement for which neither has won kudos at home, where a sustained campaign is afoot to end their rule by raising one prickly domestic issue after another.

So far, their political foes have made no headway. The Netanyahu administration is supported by a comfortable parliamentary majority and can safely focus on pressing military and strategic decision-making.

The Iranian war game covers a 2,000-kilometer stretch of sea off the Hormuz Strait, in the northern Indian Ocean and in the Gulf of Aden up to the entrance to the Red Sea.
debkafile‘s military sources are waiting to see how the Iranian exercise develops in relation to the two US aircraft carriers patrolling the same waters with their strike groups, USS John C. Stennis and USS Bataan Amphibious Ready Group.

Since capturing the American RQ-170 stealth drone on Dec. 4, the Iranians appear to be spoiling to show off their cyber and intelligence feats. They claim that with the drone, they have won control of secret US cyber technology and are now capable of overpowering the advanced military and intelligence systems aboard US aircraft carriers, warships and fighter-bomber jets.

Tehran is going all out to demonstrate that the drone was downed by superior intelligence and technology, not as a result of a malfunction, as US officials have claimed. This putative prowess is expected to be tested against a US naval vessel or Air Force plane to show the Americans they are in no condition for attacking Iran’s nuclear sites.
For Tehran therefore, it is more important for Velayati 90 to test its intelligence ability against US systems than to conduct operation naval exercises, because without the former, the latter has no chance against US capabilities.

The US high command is certainly well prepared for the challenge, debkafile‘s military and intelligence sources report. Anyway, Iranian bragging is hard to miss.
On Dec. 19, Iranian intelligence chief Gen. Seyed Hessam Hashemi boasted: “Iran will bring down all aggressive spy drones and aircraft if the US continues espionage operations over Iran.”

Iran is playing for very high stakes: A failed performance in the face of US forces in the region will tell the West and its Arab Gulf neighbors that the Islamic extremists of Tehran talk big but can’t deliver on their threats.

Analysis: Preparing for the ‘Eastern Front’ – JPost – Defense.

    In March 2007, the IDF presented its new multi-year plan aimed at rehabilitating the military following the Second Lebanon War. As expected, the plan emphasized the need to invest in the ground forces, to renew training and to develop and procure new offensive and defensive capabilities.

One of the interesting changes to the plan though, was its strategic assessment of the Middle East. While American plans to withdraw from Iraq were unclear then – George W. Bush was still president and Barack Obama was a first term junior senator from Illinois – the IDF inserted Iraq back into its strategic calculations.
Then head of the IDF Planning Directorate Maj.-Gen. Ido Nehushtan, the author of the multi-year plan, explained that as long as the US remains in Iraq, Israel has little to be concerned about in terms of a military threat from that country. But, he said, who knows what will happen when America leaves.

Today, Nehushtan is commander of the Israel Air Force and in April, he will step down after a four-year term, leaving behind a force that might not only have to deal with Iran’s nuclear program but also with a potential future threat from Iraq.

Israel’s concerns regarding Iraq are split into two categories.

On the one hand, there is the long-term strategic concern that following the US withdrawal, the government in Baghdad will have difficulty reigning in the different factions that make up the country and that Iran will take advantage of the power vacuum and move in to solidify its control. A more powerful Iran would not bode well for Israeli and Western attempts to convince Tehran to stop its nuclear program.

The second concern is the possibility that Israel will once again have to take into consideration what is referred to in the IDF as the “Eastern Front,” another term for Iraq as a military threat. Iraq was in fact the primary threat that the IDF believed it faced until the mid-1990s following the First Gulf War, when Israel began to shift its focus to the evolving missile and nuclear threat in Iran.

While Iraq is not believed to be strong militarily today, that could and is already beginning to change. By 2015, Iraq will take receipt of 18 F-16 fighter jets. Israel, for its part, is not actively lobbying Washington against the deal as part of an understanding that it is in the US interest to bolster the Iraqi government and to ensure that it continues to retain some level of influence over Baghdad.

At the same time, there is concern in Israel that changes in the region and the rise in Islamic power could also have an impact on the future stability of the western- aligned government in Iraq.

At the moment, this does not require the development of special capabilities since the same fighter jets that Israel would need to use to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities – if it decides to – would also be used in a future confrontation with Iraq.

It is likely that the greatest investment would need to be in intelligence collection – mapping out the country, preparing target banks and learning about Iraqi air defense systems.

In the 1990s this information was consistently updated but in recent years – with the American presence in Iraq and the shift in Israel’s focus to Iran, Syria and Hezbollah – Iraq has fallen to the bottom of Israel’s list of priorities.

This is of course not an immediate threat but with the Middle East undergoing historic changes, Israel needs to be prepared.

IAF may buy jets used by US in Iraq – JPost – Defense.

    Due to the ongoing upheaval in the Middle East and potential delays to existing procurement plans, the IDF is looking at the possibility of purchasing fighter jets and other platforms used by the United States military in Iraq.

The advantage in purchasing military equipment used by the US in Iraq, a senior IDF officer explained, was in the price, which would likely be dramatically lower than buying the same equipment new.

According to the officer, one possibility under consideration is asking the Americans to purchase fighter jets – possibly F- 15s – that were used in Iraq.

“The Americans are cutting their defense budget and are expected to decommission certain aircraft,” the officer said. “If there is a decision here to increase the defense budget or to purchase additional fighter jets until the F- 35 arrives later this decade, then buying the used American planes could become a real possibility,” he added.

Israel’s concern is that the delivery date for its first batch of 20 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters will be pushed back farther than the 2017 date. A number of reports recently came out of the Pentagon regarding potential problems with the development of the aircraft and the possibility that production plans will be slowed down.

If that happens, Israel could also be asked to pay more for the aircraft, meaning that it might be asked to add to the $2.75 billion it committed to paying for the 20 F-35s under the 2010 deal, or suffice with less aircraft.

The IDF has been holding marathon talks with the Treasury in recent weeks in an effort to reach an agreement regarding the size of the defense budget for the coming year. While the talks have yet to result in an agreement, defense sources said they were confident that a resolution would be reached by the end of the month.

The IDF is claiming that due to the changes in the region – particularly in Egypt – now is not the time to cut the defense budget, but rather to increase it in order to enable the military to build up new formations and capabilities needed to counter future threats.