WarSclerotic

Syrian Opposition Calls For U.N. Role To End Crisis | Fox News.

BEIRUT, Lebanon –  Syria’s top opposition leader called on the Arab League Sunday to bring the U.N. into the effort to stop the regime’s bloody crackdown on dissent as security forces pressed ahead with raids and arrests and killed at least seven more people.

Burhan Ghalioun, the Paris-based leader of the Syrian National Council, made the plea as Arab League officials were setting up teams of foreign monitors as part of their plan aimed at ending nine months of turmoil that the U.N. says has killed more than 5,000 people.

Opposition groups say the Arab League is not strong enough to resolve the crisis, which is escalating beyond mass demonstrations into armed clashes between military defectors and security forces and a double suicide bombing that shook Damascus on Friday.

“I call upon the Arab League to ask the Security Council to adopt its plan in order to increase possibilities of its success and avoid giving the regime an opportunity not to carry out its obligations,” Ghalioun said in a televised speech marking Christmas. The opposition council “holds the international community to its responsibilities and asks them to use all available means to put an end to the tragedies experienced by the Syrian people,” he added.

“The barbaric massacre must stop now,” Ghalioun said.

The Arab League has begun sending observers into Syria to monitor compliance with its plan to end to the crackdown on political opponents. President Bashar Assad agreed to the League plan only after it warned that it could turn to the U.N. Security Council to help stop the violence.

The plan requires the government to remove its security forces and heavy weapons from city streets, start talks with opposition leaders and allow human rights workers and journalists into the country.

The opposition has accused Assad of agreeing to the plan only to buy time and forestall more international sanctions and condemnation.

Mohamed Ahmed Mustafa al-Dabi, head of the Arab League observer team, traveled to Damascus late Saturday after meeting with Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby to discuss arrangements of the mission. More monitors are expected to arrive Monday.

On Sunday, the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and the Local Coordination Committees activist groups said troops shelled the town of Juraithi in the eastern province of Deir el-Zour, killing one person. They added that security forces killed three others in the village of Kouriyeh, also in Deir el-Zour.

The groups also reported that parts of the restive central city of Homs was bombed Saturday, killing at least three people and wounding dozens.

The two groups also blamed the regime for the assassination of a former member of Assad’s ruling Baath party in Homs Ghazi Zoaib and his wife Saturday night. The groups said Zoaib had recently expressed support of the opposition.

The Syrian government has long contended that the turmoil in Syria this year is not an uprising by reform-seekers but the work of terrorists and foreign-backed armed gangs.

Syria blamed Al Qaeda for sending two suicide car bombs that blew up in Damascus Friday, killing 44 and wounding dozens more. Opponents of Assad suggested the regime itself might have been responsible.

Iran says ready to expand military links with Iraq.

Al Arabiya

Sunday, 25 December 2011

General Hassan Firouzabadi hailed the “forced departure” of the U.S. and allied forces that he said “was due to the resistance and determination of the Iraqi people and government. (Reuters)

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‘Change of Music’ in US Regarding Iran – Middle East – News – Israel National News.

Iranian leader Ayatollah Khamenei

Sajed.ir

Israeli experts note a “change in the music” coming from Washington regarding the possibility that the U.S. will attack Iran militarily to prevent its acquiring nuclear weapons.

The latest chord in this new tune comes from Matthew Kroenig, a nuclear security expert on the Council on Foreign Relations who served in the Obama administration’s Defense Department.

Sanctions and steps such as the Stuxnet virus attack have not succeeded in stopping Iran’s gallop toward a nuclear weapon, he explained. “Some states in the region are doubting U.S. resolve to stop the program and are shifting their allegiances to Tehran. Others have begun to discuss launching their own nuclear initiatives to counter a possible Iranian bomb. For those nations and the United States itself, the threat will only continue to grow as Tehran moves closer to its goal.”

Washington, he adds, would also be able to limit civilian casualties in any campaign. The majority of the victims would be the military personnel, engineers, scientists, and technicians working at the facilities.

Israel, he adds, must pledge to the United States that it will stay out of the war, and refrain from responding to Iranian attacks.

Attempting to manage a nuclear-armed Iran, he concludes, “is not only a terrible option but the worst.”

IsraCast: Why Obama Opted for ‘Change’ on Iran.

Sunday, December 25, 2011

Obama Administration Signals That Iranian Attempt To Break Out For Nuclear Weapons Can Be Prevented By U.S. Military Options

U.S. Reassurances Apparently Designed To Dissuade From Surprising White House By Air Strike On Iran’s Nuclear Sites After IAEA Confirmed Iranians On Working On Nuclear Weapons

Iranian Naval Maneuvers A Warning To West But Iranian Navy Is No Match For U.S. Warships

Barack Obama

Not only are all the options on the table, including military operations but the U.S. also has the capability to knock out Iran’s nuclear weapons program – that was the stunning message from U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Gen. Martin Dempsey, the new Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chief of Staff. It was a one-two punch to back up President Barack Obama’s diplomatic efforts which have ended in abject failure according to the most recent IAEA report. What are the implications?

What triggered U.S. President Barack Obama’s sudden shift on Iran and her nuclear weapons project? In 2009, during his seminal speech in Cairo, the newly elected U.S. leader offered ‘engagement’ to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Ayatollahs in Tehran. Now about to enter his fourth year in the White House, Obama’s diplomatic dilly-dallying has run its course; the most recent IAEA report has revealed, beyond dispute, that sanctions have failed to deter the Iranians from continuing the nuclear weapons program. Never a serious believer that sanctions would work, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has now disclosed that Iran might be able to acquire a nuclear weapon in a year, possibly even less, ‘if it is operating a hidden facility that may be enriching fuel’. Panetta, who recently warned about the complications of an Israeli strike, has now indicated the U.S. and Israel are on the same page: ‘We share the same concerns. The U.S. does not want Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. That’s a red line for us and that’s a red line obviously for the Israelis. If we have to deal with it, we’ll deal with it’. But did that include military operations? Panetta replied: ‘There are no operations off the table. A nuclear weapon in Iran is unacceptable’.

U.S. reassures Israel

But if American voters are slated to elect a new president on Nov.6, 2012, this is within the same time frame that Tehran might go nuclear. Therefore time is of the essence because Israel has a proven doctrine of taking military action to prevent any hostile Middle Eastern state from acquiring the bomb. This was the case in 1981 with Saddam Hussein’s Osirak reactor and most recently in 2009 against Bashar Assad’s secret facility supplied by North Korea. What’s transpired behind the scenes? Before Panetta’s epiphany, Defense Minister Ehud Barak met with President Obama and may have conveyed a vital message outlining several principles. First, the recent IAEA report put the world on notice that Iran is working on the bomb – no ifs, ands or buts. Moreover, the Iranians might be closer than most foreign intelligence services believed and existing sanctions were not likely to succeed, although they crippled parts of the Iranian economy but not its crucial oil industry.

The IDF intelligence estimate was the Iranians were trying to secretly produce the bomb believing they would then be ‘immune’ from any punitive measures. In addition, the expected fall of its Syrian ally, combined with Iran’s subsequent friction with Turkey, will spur Tehran to acquire nuclear weapons as fast as possible. The bottom line was that Israel reserved the right to launch a solo strike against Iran’s nuclear targets in the coming year. Granted this would trigger pandemonium in the region, including massive rocket attacks on Israel by Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.

The international price of oil might soar and but as Gen.(res.) Aharon Zeevi Farkash has said: ‘The damage to Israel would still be less than if she did nothing and risked one Iranian nuclear missile landing on Tel Aviv!’ Generally speaking, President Obama would abhore an Israeli strike at any time, but during an election year would be disastrous. He would be exposed as an incompetent president caught up in a no-win situation and this would dash his prospects for winning a second term in the White House. On the other hand, if he issued an ultimatum to Israel not to attack Iran when her very existence was at stake, would lead to Obama’s being tarred and feathered by the Republican candidate. In such circumstances, it was imperative for Obama to give Israel some sort of public reassurance that if Iran ‘breaks out’ for the bomb, the U.S. will take action. That appears to be what Defense Secretary Panetta has now done.

Gen. Martin Dempsey: ‘Yes we can!’…

Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, has seconded Panetta’s tough talk by declaring that an American strike on Iran is no longer mission impossible: ‘I am satisfied that the options we are developing are evolving to a point that they would be executable, if necessary’. And Gen.Dempsey also told CNN: ‘My biggest worry is that they (Iranians) will miscalculate our resolve’. The other part of the deal may be that Israel has promised the U.S. to coordinate any military action against Iran and not launch any surprises.

Iranian threat to Gulf states as well…

As for reaction in the Arab Sunni world, Saudi Arabia and most of the Gulf states have been urging the U.S. to take action against Shiite Iran. In fact, they would probably like nothing better than for Israel to take out Iran’s nuclear capability that poses a dire threat to them as well. But what if Israel and the U.S. both do nothing and let Iran go nuclear? It would probably start a nuclear arms race with harrowing consequences. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey would likely launch their own crash programs and Obama would be held responsible for an even greater calamitous situation in Middle East.

Tehran literally sticking to its guns…

If the U.S. is now on record as being ready to launch a military strike to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons does the Obama administration still have another card to play? Something that might avert an all out war. For example, one option that has been bandied about in the past has been the threat of a naval embargo. Until now, President Obama has failed to exert any influence over Iran – he is now reverting to the proverbial stick after his carrots have failed to impress the Iranian regime. In the meantime, Tehran is literally sticking to its guns with the massive naval maneuver over a distance of two thousand kilometers in the Gulf region with all the implications for the strategic Straits of Hormuz, through which some 30% of the West’s oil flows on tankers. However the Iranian Navy is certainly no match for the armada of US warships and aircraft that could be massed very quickly in the arena. Therefore the Iranians are apparently bluffing at a time that Obama has upped the ante by putting his presidential prestige on the line bluffing in an election year.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 25, 2011, 7:37 PM (GMT+02:00)

Iran shows its muscle

Iran launched its 10-day naval drill “Velayati (Supremacy) 90” east of the strategic Strait of Hormuz Saturday, Dec. 24, to show its muscle – first of all to Washington in view of the Obama administration radically changed stance in favor of an attack to destroy the Islamic Republic’s nuclear weapons program.

It is a message that, notwithstanding the proximity of US warships in the area, Tehran can close the Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz to the passage of one third of the world’s oil consumption; and if attacked, it will not just hit back at  US targets in the region and Israel; Saudi Arabia and Jordan are additionally in its sights.

Israel was informed of the US policy reversal on Iran in the one-on-one talk President Barak Obama held with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak at Gaylord Hotel, Maryland on Dec. 16.

For Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Barak, the tightening of military coordination on Iran between the US and their government is a signal achievement for which neither has won kudos at home, where a sustained campaign is afoot to end their rule by raising one prickly domestic issue after another.

So far, their political foes have made no headway. The Netanyahu administration is supported by a comfortable parliamentary majority and can safely focus on pressing military and strategic decision-making.

The Iranian war game covers a 2,000-kilometer stretch of sea off the Hormuz Strait, in the northern Indian Ocean and in the Gulf of Aden up to the entrance to the Red Sea.
debkafile‘s military sources are waiting to see how the Iranian exercise develops in relation to the two US aircraft carriers patrolling the same waters with their strike groups, USS John C. Stennis and USS Bataan Amphibious Ready Group.

Since capturing the American RQ-170 stealth drone on Dec. 4, the Iranians appear to be spoiling to show off their cyber and intelligence feats. They claim that with the drone, they have won control of secret US cyber technology and are now capable of overpowering the advanced military and intelligence systems aboard US aircraft carriers, warships and fighter-bomber jets.

Tehran is going all out to demonstrate that the drone was downed by superior intelligence and technology, not as a result of a malfunction, as US officials have claimed. This putative prowess is expected to be tested against a US naval vessel or Air Force plane to show the Americans they are in no condition for attacking Iran’s nuclear sites.
For Tehran therefore, it is more important for Velayati 90 to test its intelligence ability against US systems than to conduct operation naval exercises, because without the former, the latter has no chance against US capabilities.

The US high command is certainly well prepared for the challenge, debkafile‘s military and intelligence sources report. Anyway, Iranian bragging is hard to miss.
On Dec. 19, Iranian intelligence chief Gen. Seyed Hessam Hashemi boasted: “Iran will bring down all aggressive spy drones and aircraft if the US continues espionage operations over Iran.”

Iran is playing for very high stakes: A failed performance in the face of US forces in the region will tell the West and its Arab Gulf neighbors that the Islamic extremists of Tehran talk big but can’t deliver on their threats.

Iran rejects U.S. allegations on al-Qaida operative – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Iran denies it is harboring accused al-Qaida facilitator and financier Yasin al-Suri; U.S. is offering up to $10 million for information on al-Suri.

By Reuters

Iran rejected as “completely baseless” U.S. allegations that it was harboring an al-Qaida member who is accused of operating as a facilitator and financier for the group from the Islamic Republic, the semi-official Fars news agency reported on Sunday.

The United States announced on Thursday that it was establishing a reward of up to $10 million for information leading to Syrian-born Yasin al-Suri, who is also known as Ezedin Abdel Aziz Khalil.

“The American government’s recent unwise scenario regarding Iran’s involvement in the September 11, 2001 attacks and the presence of an al-Qaida member in Iran is completely baseless,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said on Sunday, according to Fars.

Al-Suri has been accused of helping move money and recruits through Iran to al-Qaida leaders in neighboring countries under an agreement between the group and the Iranian government, Senior State Department official Robert Hartung has said.

The $10 million bounty was the first offered for an al-Qaida financier and is aimed at disrupting a financial network that has operated from within Iran’s borders since 2005, the Treasury Department said.

On Friday, a federal district court in Manhattan ruled that Iran and Hezbollah materially and directly supported al-Qaida in the September 11, 2001 attacks and are legally responsible for damages to hundreds of family members of 9/11 victims who are plaintiffs in the case.

“The world should consider the consequences of such irresponsible behavior by American officials … It is also necessary that the international community shows its deep concerns to the American government,” Mehmanparast said.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has called the September 11 attacks on the United States a “big fabrication” by Washington that was used to justify the U.S. war on terrorism.

The United States and its Western allies have been locked in a standoff with Iran over its disputed nuclear program, which Washington believes is aimed at producing nuclear weapons but which Tehran says is solely for peaceful purposes.

Reports in Sudan: Israel struck two weapons convoys in past month – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Sudanese military dismisses reports of recent Israeli airstrikes; according to foreign reports, IAF has struck Gaza-bound arms convoys in Sudan in the past.

By Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel

The Sudanese military over the weekend dismissed reports of recent Israeli airstrikes in the country.

Sudanese military spokesman, Colonel Al Swarmi Saad, said that no attacks were detected by Sudan’s radar systems.

According to the Al-Rakoba website, two attacks took place. At the end of November, a site near the Egyptian border called Wadi Al-Alaki was reportedly hit. Two people were killed, two were wounded and two vehicles were destroyed.

On December 15, Apache helicopters were reportedly seen above an island off Sudan’s coast. According to reports in other media outlets, Israeli submarine activity was also witnessed in the area.

In April of this year, an airstrike in Sudan targeted a car in which there was a Sudanese citizen and, according to Al-Arabiya, an Islamist involved in arming Hamas.

According to foreign media reports, that Israel has not confirmed or refuted, the Israel Air Force struck Sudan at least twice, in January and February 2009, immediately after the end of Operation Cast Lead in the Gaza Strip. In one case, a convoy of trucks carrying weapons to Gaza was struck and 119 people were killed. In another case, a ship was bombed from the air.

At the time, reports were also published about operations by naval commandos in Sudan’s ports, as part of efforts to stem weapons smuggling.

Israel Navy ships and submarines sailed through the Suez Canal a number of times, in coordination with the previous regime in Egypt, and experts surmised that this was connected to anti-weapons smuggling activities in the Red Sea.