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ran starts building a nuclear weapon: US and Israel tighten cooperation
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 22, 2011, 9:49 AM (GMT+02:00)

Barack Obama and Ehud Barack in Maryland

Iran has embarked on “activities related to possible weaponization,” said American sources Wednesday, Dec. 22, thereby accounting for the dramatic reversal of the Obama administration’s wait-and-see attitude on attacking Iran. The change  was articulated this week by US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey.
debkafile‘s Washington sources report that the Islamic Republic crossed the red line President Barack Obama had set for the United States, i.e., when Tehran begins using the technologies and fissile materials (enriched uranium) it has amassed for assembling a bomb or missile warheads.  This marks the moment that Iran goes nuclear and only a short time remains before it has an operational nuclear weapon.
Washington has always claimed that when the order to build a weapon was given in Tehran, the United States would know about it within a short time.
The US stealth drone RQ-170 was sent into Iranian airspace for the first time to find evidence to support this suspicion. On Dec. 4 the Iranians downed the unmanned reconnaissance craft by intelligence or cyber means not yet fully clarified. The US – and most probably Israel too – then turned to other intelligence resources to find out what Iran was up to. According to debkafile‘s military and intelligence sources, they found evidence that Iran has in fact begun putting together components of a nuclear bomb or warhead.

This discovery prompted the latest statements by Mr. Panetta and Gen. Dempsey.

The defense secretary put it into words when he said Tuesday, Dec.: “Despite the efforts to disrupt the Iranian nuclear program, the Iranians have reached a point where they can assemble a bomb in a year or potentially less.”

The next day, Gen. Dempsey said, “My biggest worry is they will miscalculate our resolve. Any miscalculation could mean that we are drawn into conflict, and that would be a tragedy for the region and the world.”

Dennis Ross, until last month President Obama’s senior Middle East adviser, and key architect of White House policies on the Iranian nuclear program and understandings with Israel on this issue, said  Israel has four causes for concern about uranium enrichment in the underground nuclear facility at Fordo near Qom and other developments:

1.  Iran’s accumulation of low-enriched uranium, its decision to enrich to nearly 20 percent “when there is no justification for it.”

2.  The “hardening” of Iranian nuclear sites, largely by moving facilities underground.

3.  Other activities related to possible weaponization.

4.  Israel suspects that Fordo is not Iran’s only buried facility and that nuclear “weaponization” is ongoing surreptitiously at additional underground locations. “I would not isolate Qom and say this alone is the Israeli red line to spur a military response.”

Our military sources report that all these developments were covered in the short and epic conversation between President Barack Obama and Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak at the Gaylord Hotel in Maryland on Dec. 16. It ended with accord on the US and Israeli responses to the new situation arising in Iran.

The White House has since accepted the Israeli assessment of Iran’s nuclear bomb time table and endorses the conviction that unless Iran retreats from its decision to build a nuclear bomb and steps back from the process it set in train this month, the only option remaining will be a military strike to disable its nuclear program.
Following the Maryland encounter, debkafile’s sources report a procession of prominent US officials visiting Israel to tighten coordination between the US and Israel on their next moves. Lt. Gen. Frank Gorenc, commander of the US’s Third air Force, was one of those visitors. He came to organize the biggest joint military exercise ever held by the US and Israel, as part of the shared response to Iran’s steps.

Tuesday, Dec. 20, saw the arrival of Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s right-hand, together with Robert Einhorn, a State Department special adviser on nonproliferation. The two came to tie up the diplomatic ends of the decisions reached by President Obama and Defense Minister Barak at their meeting in Washington.

Ross: Obama Prepared to Take Action Against Iran – Middle East – News – Israel National News.

Dennis Ross

Israel news photo: Wikimedia Commons/Nrbelex

Dennis Ross, President Barack Obama’s former Middle East advisor, said on Wednesday that the Obama administration is determined to prevent Iran from achieving a nuclear weapon and would certainly consider military action against the Islamic Republic.

In an interview with Israel’s Channel 10 News, Ross said that the recent public statements by Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and the Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey, reflect the fact that that the President and the administration “take this issue with the greatest degree of seriousness.”

“This is not something that we’re prepared to accept,” Ross said. “The administration continues to believe that there is time and space available to achieve the objective that Iran will not be a nuclear-armed country through non-military means.”

However, he added, “They’re also saying – if you look at the words of the Defense Secretary – that all options remain on the table. Obviously, it’s better to use diplomatic means to achieve the objective, but the fact is the United States is not prepared to adopt a position of containment towards Iran.”

When asked whether he believes President Obama would give an order to take military action against Iran, Ross said, “This is a president who has prided himself on doing what he says, so I think if he draws the conclusion that what is required is to take a certain kind of step, he’s prepared to take those steps.”

“It means that when all options are on the table and if you’ve exhausted all other means, you do what is necessary,” he added.

Ross also dismissed the idea that there is a lack of chemistry between President Obama and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and that this lack of chemistry could have an effect on the way the Iranian issue is dealt with.

“They have spent more time in one-on-one conversations than maybe any other two leaders today,” he said. “They have discussed the most sensitive issues. They discussed the most important issues, and I think that when it comes to an issue like this, which is obviously of such profound importance, you can count on the fact that they will have a serious exchange. I think they already have.”

On Tuesday, Dempsey said that the United States can successfully attack Iran, if necessary.

“I am satisfied that the options that we are developing are evolving to a point that they would be executable if necessary,” Dempsey told CNN.

Dempsey’s comments came after on Monday, Panetta told CBS that Iran is a year or less away from achieving a nuclear weapon, but the United States will stop it – no matter what.

U.S. calls on UN Security Council to impose greater sanctions on Iran – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

U.S. ambassador to the UN says full implementation of sanctions will not only slow Iran’s nuclear program but will buy time to resolve nuclear crisis through diplomatic means.

By The Associated Press

U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice urged the UN Security Council on Wednesday to redouble efforts to implement sanctions against Iran, saying tougher action could slow the country’s nuclear program and “show Iran there is a price to pay for its deception.”

Iran is subject to four rounds of UN sanctions because of concerns it is seeking to develop nuclear weapons and its refusal to suspend uranium enrichment. Tehran claims its nuclear program is peaceful and exists only to produce energy for civilian use.

	Dr. Susan Rice, the American Ambassador to the United Nations.
	Photo by: AP

Rice pointed to a report last month by the International Atomic Energy Agency which concluded that some alleged clandestine work by Iran could not be used for any other purpose than making nuclear arms.

“No one, after reading the November report, can reasonably believe Iran’s contention that its continuing uranium enrichment program is for peaceful purposes only,” she said, adding that the IAEA board’s censure of Iran showed that its “illicit nuclear activities are unacceptable.”

Rice called on the Security Council committee monitoring sanctions against Iran and its panel of experts to act “robustly” in implementing sanctions and investigating violations.

The sanctions, which have chipped away at Iran’s economy, ban Iranian arms exports, prohibit the import of several categories of heavy weapons, bar Iranian investment in uranium mining, ban the import of nuclear and missile-related materials, and freeze the assets of key individuals, organizations and companies involved in nuclear and missile activities.

Rice said adding more individuals and entities to the sanctions blacklist “would send a powerful signal of the committee’s commitment to enforce UN Security Council resolutions.” She also said those who violate sanctions should face targeted sanctions.
But the U.S. ambassador stressed that “sanctions are only a means to an end.”

Rice said full implementation of sanctions will not only slow Iran’s nuclear program but buy more time to resolve the nuclear crisis through diplomatic means.

China and Russia both called for stepped up diplomatic efforts and a new round of talks between Iran and six nations trying to rein in its nuclear program. The last round of talks between Iran and the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany ended in failure in January.

Rice said the “ultimate goal” of the United States is to ensure that Iran complies with all its international nuclear obligations and resolves outstanding questions from the IAEA.

“In the face of Iran’s deception and intransigence, the international community must speak with one voice, making clear that Iranian actions jeopardize international peace and security and will only further isolate the regime,” she said.

Analysis: Why the … JPost – Iranian Threat – Opinion & Analysis.

    There is no question the Americans are escalating their rhetoric with regards to Iran. The question though is why.

While the Defense Ministry is trying to take credit for the shift, claiming it stems from Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s 20-minute sit down with President Barack Obama on the sidelines of the Reform Movement’s recent conference, it is likely far more complex.
First, there is not that much new in what both Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey said this week. Nevertheless, the timing and some of the implications of their remarks send a clear message.

Panetta made headlines by telling CBS News that Iran could build a nuclear weapon in a year or even sooner. While this was widely reported, some media outlets left out his next statement – that this would only happen if and when the Iranians actually decide to make a bomb, something that has yet to happen.

This has been said a number of times by Israeli defense and government officials in recent months. Barak made the same comment in an interview with CNN just a month ago.

By repeating it now, though, Panetta is basically saying that the US and Israel see eye-to-eye on the state of Iran’s nuclear program. This was not always the case, as demonstrated by the National Intelligence Estimate released in December 2007, which said the US could not conclude for certain the Iranians were working on a nuclear weapons program. Israel vehemently disagreed.

Dempsey’s comments to CNN were mostly a repeat of what we have heard out of the Obama administration since it came to power in 2009; it has consistently declared that “all options are on the table” when it comes to Iran.

Dempsey took it a step further, thought, saying preparations for the military option “are evolving to a point that they would be executable if necessary.”

This is an explicit threat, something not heard every day from Washington.

Israel listened carefully, and for the most part is keeping quiet, allowing the Americans to take the lead in the campaign against Iran.

Both Panetta and Dempsey made their comments during trips to the Middle East where they encountered extreme concern in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and even Afghanistan with Iran’s nuclear program and the affect it would have on the regimes there.

Also, the Panetta-Dempsey comments came just two weeks after Iran announced it has the US’s top secret RQ- 170 Sentinel drone. This has the Americans extremely embarrassed and frustrated, a possible explanation for the escalation in rhetoric.

There us also the US presidential election next November. Obama is accused by his Republican contenders of being soft. Having his defense chief and top general talk tough helps him change that image.

Finally, there is the genuine concern over Iran’s continued nuclear development. Iran is dispersing its facilities – moving centrifuges from Natanz to the underground fortified location near Qom – and basically all that is needed is a decision to build the bomb.

Time is running out.

The US also does not want Israel to attack and hopes that by making more blunt threats, it will on the one hand ease Israeli concerns and at the same time shake up the Iranians to rethink their course.

Israel hopes this will work, and some officials bring the events of 2003 as proof that when Iran believes it faces a credible military threat it knows how to rationally calculate its options and even suspend its program. In 2003, the US invaded Iraq, and fearing that it would be next in line, Iran suspended its enrichment of uranium and its weapons program, restarting both two years later.

The question is whether if it too late to stop Iran by simply waving a big stick.

The reason is simple – the Iranians are at the stage where they have enriched the required amount of uranium and mastered the necessary technology to build a bomb.

All they have to do is decide to do so and begin racing ahead. The temptation might be too hard to resist.