WarSclerotic

Israel-US to hold largest-ever missile defense… JPost – Defense.

(I don’t believe the attack will be withheld till spring.  This is more “laying the PR groundwork”  in advance of the attack.  Obama is signifying unity with Israel every way he can think of. – JW)

    Israel is moving forward with plans to hold the largest-ever missile defense exercise in its history this coming spring amid Iranian efforts to obtain nuclear weapons.

Last week, Lt. Gen. Frank Gorenc, commander of the US’s Third Air Force based in Germany, visited Israel to finalize plans for the upcoming drill, expected to see the deployment of several thousand American soldiers in Israel.
The drill, which is unprecedented in its size, will include the establishment of US command posts in Israel and IDF command posts at EUCOM headquarters in Germany – with the ultimate goal of establishing joint task forces for the event of a future large-scale conflict in the Middle East.

The US will also bring its THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) and ship-based Aegis ballistic missile defense systems to Israel to simulate the interception of missile salvos against Israel. The American systems will work in conjunction with Israel’s missile defense systems – the Arrow, Patriot and Iron Dome.

Gorenc came to Israel for talks with Brig.-Gen. Doron Gavish, commander of the Air Force’s Air Defense Division. He toured one of the Iron Dome batteries stationed in the South as well as the Israel Test Bed lab in Holon where the IAF holds its interception simulation exercises.

The IAF is planning to deploy a fourth batter of the Iron Dome counter rocket battery in the coming months and is mulling the possibility of stationing it in Haifa to protect oil refineries located there.

The Defense Ministry has allocated a budget to manufacture an additional three Iron Dome batteries by the end of 2012. IAF operational requirements call for the deployment of about a dozen batteries along Israel’s northern and southern borders.

The IAF is also moving forward with plans to deploy Rafael’s David’s Sling missile defense system, which is designed to defend against medium-range rockets and cruise missiles. Rafael recently completed a series of successful navigation and flight tests of the David’s Sling’s interceptor and plans are to hold the first interception test by mid-2012.

IDF and U.S. Army ‘Strengthen Cooperation’ – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Lt. Gen Gorenc with IDF officers

IAF Website

The Commander of the Third Air Force of the U.S Military, Lt. Gen. Frank Gorenc, arrived in Israel to prepare for a joint training exercise between the Israel Air Force and the U.S. Army. The ‘Austere Challenge’ (AC) exercise will take place next year and Lt. Gen. Gorenc’s visit will strengthen the ties and coordination between the forces, wrote the IAF website.

Lt. Gen. Gorenc toured an Iron Dome battery, Palmachim airbase and the Israeli Test Bed (ITB) facility in Holon, which simulates the operations of aerial defense systems at war.

Gorenc, who in his current role commands all American forces coordinating with the IDF, is an executive pilot in the U.S Air Force and has commanded on combat squadrons and the Air Force District of Washington.

“The purpose of the visit is to practice commands and mutual regulations, in the fields as well as in the command center, as a part of preparation for the AC”, Lieutenant Colonel Dedi Meiri, Commander of the Flight Squadron in the Active Defense Wing, told IAF Website’s Shir Bram. “We’re showing the general the fields, what really goes on in the batteries. Then we’ll practice system cooperation and coordination in the ITB, [with anti-missile systems] such as Arrow and David’s Sling”.

The general’s tour began at Battery A of “Iron Dome”, which intercepted a rocket fired toward Israel from Gaza over the past weekend.

Lieutenant General Gorenc was hosted by Brigadier General Doron Gavish, Commander of the Aerial Defense Formation, who also led the tour. At the battery, the Lieutenant General met with Lieutenant Colonel Gilad Biran, Commander of the “Iron Dome” Unit, and received explanations of how the system operates from Captain Elad Tzinamon, Commander of the Battery.

Fire at Iran refinery prompts state of emergency – Israel News, Ynetnews.

(Surprise, surprise ! – JW)

Malfunction in Isfahan refinery, the second largest in Iran, results in black out, burning of gas, oil residues

Dudi Cohen

A malfunction at an Isfahan refinery caused a leakage of cooling water from its generators – the latest in a string of mysterious mishaps in Iran in the past few months. A power outage was created as a result and a state of emergency was declared at the refinery, the Iranian Mehr news agency reported.

According to the report, one person was injured and taken to hospital. Various eye-witnesses reported seeing flames and thick smoke covering the area. The report stated that workers burned off the excess oil and gas in pipes to prevent a blast in the site. Traffic to the site was blocked and all phone lines were disconnected to prevent an explosion.

The Isfahan refinery is the second largest in Iran. A local oil company official said that the situation was under control and that the malfunction would be repaired within several hours. He denied that a fire had broken out.

Human chain outside Isfahan uranium facility (Photo: EPA)

A senior employee at the refinery denied there was a blast, explaining that the flames and smoke seen in the area were caused due to the burning of excess materials in the pipes. He explained that power had been cut off due to safety reasons.

Iran ranks second in the world in work accidents. Last week, a blast at a steel factory in Yazd left at least 18 dead.

Egypt’s radical Islamist party vows to respect peace treaty with Israel – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Salafi Al-Nour party says will welcome talks with Israel; new Israeli envoy in Cairo says will try to open communication channels with Islamist groups.

By Avi Issacharoff

Egypt’s radical Salafi movement has announced for the first time that it intends to respect all treaties that Egypt has signed, including the peace deal with Israel.

The Salafi Al-Nour party, which won 25-30 percent of the votes in the first round of Egypt’s parliamentary elections, said that they are also in favor of negotiating with Israel.

	An anti-Israel protest in Cairo.
	Photo by: AP

Meanwhile, a senior diplomatic official in Jerusalem said Sunday that Israel’s new ambassador in Cairo, Yaakov Amitai, will attempt to open communication channels with Islamic officials in Egypt, including representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood and the radical Salafi movement’s Al-Nour Party.

The source said Israel must engage in dialogue with Islamic representatives in the relatively friendly Arab countries, including representatives of the fundamentalist Salafi parties such as Al-Nour – if they agree to talk.

“We should make every effort to explain that we are not the enemies of the Egyptian people or enemies of the Palestinians,” the official said, adding, “The Palestinians cannot continue to hold the Arab world by the tail.”

In an interview with Egyptian journalists, Amitai – who only assumed his position in Cairo six days ago – was asked if he was concerned about the political rise of the Muslim Brotherhood.

He replied that he did not wish to get involved in Egypt’s internal affairs and needed to study the situation further.

Until now, the Israeli government has not attempted to open official contacts with the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Jerusalem official’s comments are unusual in light of the Brotherhood’s failure to recognize Israel.

However, representatives of the Islamic movement have told American diplomats that the group did not intend to seek the revocation of Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel.

Kim’s death – JPost – Opinion – Editorials.

    Imagine a game in which you’re walking on the edge of a cliff chained by the ankle to someone else. The first to cave into fear loses. What is the best strategy for winning?

Well, one surefire way is to head straight for the cliff’s edge. Increase the shared risk steadily, convincing your adversary that you are crazy, that you are willing to die and take him with you. Your enemy will inevitably give up. It is called brinkmanship and it works in the world of foreign relations. Just look at North Korea.

Because Pyongyang has the bomb, it has gotten away with bullying South Korea and intimidating large swathes of Asia.

In March, 2010 Pyongyang sank a South Korean patrol vessel, killing 46 on board. In November, 2010 it displayed a previously undisclosed, state-of-the-art uranium enrichment facility to a visiting American scientist and exchanged artillery fire with the South, killing two marines and wounding 20 others.

Backing down to North Korean aggression emboldens the country’s hardliners. Retaliation could do the same. And since North Korea has the bomb, it cannot be taken lightly.

In the last year or so, North Korea has been relatively quiet. However, the death of Kim Jong-il has revived the old dilemmas and fears of dealing with a dictatorship that augments its influence with nuclear capability.

How will North Korea succeed in making the transferral of power to Kim’s virtually unknown youngest son, King Yong-un? Uncertainty is rampant regarding the country’s nuclear intentions and the prospects, if any, for a new relationship with the world beyond North Korean borders.

Trepidation deepened when the South Korean news agency reported that, before the announcement of Kim’s death – two days after the fact – North Korea tested an unspecified number of short-range missiles.

It is abundantly apparent that the sole reason North Korea commands so much influence, and arouses such fear, is because it has the bomb.

The country has literally been sacrificed for the sake of developing its military – and atomic – capabilities. In the process, many North Koreans have been reduced to near starvation. The country has no real industry to speak of. It cannot offer significant economic ties or technological advances.

Nonetheless, its policy of brinkmanship, backed up by its nuclear capabilities has put it on the map. If not for its bomb, few in the world would be aware of the ailing Kim’s death, reportedly the result of a heart attack.

Because North Korea managed to obtain nuclear capability, it has become one of the world’s biggest worries. Without the bomb it would be a non-entity.

Now consider Iran.

Though its economy is suffering from international boycotts designed to prevent it from developing the bomb, many countries, including in Europe – attracted not only by Iranian oil, but also by its vibrant industries – have been tempted to do business. Its people are relatively educated and industrious. Even without the bomb, Iran has exerted a decisive influence in the region, from Iraq and Lebanon to Gaza.

Imagine Iran with a bomb.

Ominous in this context is Ahmadinejad’s Holocaust denial.

“I take Holocaust denial as Holocaust affirmation,” journalist Christopher Hitchens, who passed away Thursday, once said of Iran’s leader. “People who say it didn’t happen are people who wish it would happen again.”

Now how is that for brinkmanship?

Kim was right when he said last month that “a dangerous situation currently prevails in the Middle East, where a new war could break out.”

But it is not because, as he claimed, the US and Israel suffer from a “combative delirium” – rather it is because Iran is liable to exploit nuclear capability to intimidate the region, like North Korea has done on the Korean peninsula.

On the occasion of Kim’s death, with all the uncertainties and fears it has aroused – including in neighboring countries such as China, which has been so reluctant to impose sanctions on Iran – the international community should meditate on the potential dangers of a world in which the Islamic Republic has nuclear capability – and do everything possible to prevent it from happening.

Analysts: Assad ‘change of heart’ is merely posturing –.

    Bashar Assad has agreed to let in Arab League monitors, but the Syrian autocrat’s history of unkept promises suggests a conclusion to the crisis roiling his country remains a long way off.

Monday’s announcement offered little new. The plan in question, first proposed last month, would have the Syrian government withdraw its troops from the country’s cities, release political prisoners, hold talks with opposition groups and let in monitors from Arab League states.
Damascus immediately agreed to all of the terms except the last, which it condemned as a “violation of sovereignty.”

Andrew Tabler, a Next Generation Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said Monday’s apparent change of heart is merely the latest empty gesture from a regime intent on clinging to power by any means.

Assad “hides behind sovereignty, and this plan would seem to put his activities in the spotlight. He will now try to skirt around the plan to his advantage and play for time,” said Tabler, author of the recently released book In the Lion’s Den: An Eyewitness Account of Washington’s Battle with Syria.

“If he pulls back from cities and people protest, the true scale of the uprising will be apparent. That will be hard for him to handle politically,” he said.

With the Syrian uprising in its ninth month and more than 5,000 people believed killed, Assad’s diplomatic standing has all but collapsed.

The US and EU have both implemented tough sanctions, and last month the Arab League took the rare step of suspending Syria, a founding member of the 21-nation Arab bloc.

Damascus now has just two close friends left – Iran and Russia.

The Islamic Republic uses Syria as a conduit for arms and money to Hezbollah and Hamas, and prizes the country as its only strong ally among the Arab states.

Russia’s ties with Syria date back decades – throughout the three-decade presidency of Assad’s father and predecessor Hafez, Syria received a steady flow of money, weapons and advisers from the Soviet Union.

Today, the two countries enjoy a mutually advantageous relationship: Russia is Syria’s largest arms supplier, while the Syrian coastal city of Tartus hosts a Russian naval base that is the Kremlin’s only overseas naval base and its gateway to the Mediterranean. Since 2009 the Russians have been quietly modernizing the base and dredging its port to allow access for the larger ships in its naval fleet.

But Syria’s growing diplomatic isolation has now forced even Russia to deliver its own perfunctory condemnation of the violence. Last week it circulated a surprise draft resolution in the UN Security Council castigating Damascus for its “disproportionate use of force.”

The draft, however, was criticized by Western members of the Council for blaming both the government and protesters equally for the bloodshed.

“Russia is giving Assad another last chance,” Tabler said.

“The pulling of Arab League cover makes Russia’s position at the UN Security Council appear increasingly feckless.”

On Monday, Farid Ghadry, president of the US-based Reform Party of Syria opposition group, predicted the Arab- League sponsored peace plan would be “one of the shortest-lived treaties ever signed.”

“A nod to agreeing is just a nod,” Ghadry wrote in his blog. “Assad is just buying time to recollect and rest before he unleashes another hellish episode to control the Syrian street once and for all.”

Lebanon: Israel arranged rocket f… JPost – Diplomacy & Politics.

    Lebanon believes that Israel organized the firing of rockets from southern Lebanese territory into the Jewish state in efforts to “undermine security and stability” in Lebanon, Lebanese English newspaper the Daily Star reported Tuesday.

Lebanese Defense Minister Fayez Ghosn told the Star that “The party that has launched mysterious rockets from the south is known,” allegedly insinuating Israel.

“Lebanon’s enemies, namely Israel, have no interest in the continuation of calm and stability in the south,” the Lebanese defense minister said.

On Monday, Lebanese Armed Forces found four ready-to-fire Katyusha rockets in southeast Lebanon.

The rockets were discovered by military intelligence on the outskirts of the village of Majidieh in Hasbaya.

Four Katyusha rockets were fired at Israel from Lebanon earlier this month in an incident that sparked tensions between Beirut and Jerusalem. The IDF retaliated shortly after the attacks by bombing sites in southern Lebanon, and area largely in control by Hezbollah.

An organization affiliated with al Qaida claimed responsibility for the four 122-millimeter rockets that were fired from southern Lebanon, landing in the Western Galilee and causing extensive damage to a chicken coop and propane gas tank. The IDF said Hezbollah did not appear to be behind the attack.

According to Lebanese reports, only one rocket was fired at Israel in that attack.

Lebanon has filed two complaints to the United Nations in December over Israel, one concerning the IDF retaliation and the second over Israeli spy devices the Lebanese army said it found in two villages in southern Lebanon.

‘Syrian conflict too complex for Western i… JPost – Middle East.

    Western powers will not likely intervene to stop the crisis in Syria because of the “complexity” of the issue, Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby told Egyptian daily Al Shorouk Tuesday.

“There won’t be repeat of scenario we saw in Libya in Syria,” Elaraby said, referring to the military assistance provided by NATO to Libyan rebels who overthrew the regime of leader Muammar Gaddafi.

Elaraby was citing fears that a military intervention in Syria would drag the region into a larger conflict due to Damascus’s allies and enemies in close proximity. Libya is more territorially isolated.

The Arab League chief said the Syrian opposition “has not matured yet,” sayingthe Syrian Revolution General Commission, a coalition of some 40 opposition groups, is unable to change the facts on the ground.

Speaking a day after Syrian President Bashar Assad agreed to a league plan to send Arab monitors to the embattled country, Elaraby insisted the original resolve of the plan was intact. He said Syrian amendments did not change the nature of the observers’ mission.

Elaraby explained that monitors would hail from Arab countries, adding that some may be from Muslim countries as well. Their goal will be to provide protection for Syrian civilians so that opposition groups and the Assad government may carry out a dialogue for planning Syria’s future ruling power and ending the nine-month violent conflict.

The Arab League chief failed to detail exactly which countries would send observers.

The United States Monday reacted skeptically to Syria’s agreement to allow an Arab state to monitor Syrian compliance with an Arab League peace agreement designed to stop the violence in the country.

Opposition activists said at least 114 people were killed in clashes Monday, Al Jazeera reported. According to the Syrian Revolution General Commission 80 army defectors were among the dead.

The United Nations says more than 5,000 people have died since the protests began. Syria says more than 1,100 security personnel have been killed by foreign-backed “armed terrorist gangs”.

US State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said the United States wanted to see Syria carry through with the Arab League peace plan, saying Syrian officials had failed to keep agreements too often in the past to be taken at their word.

“We have seen too many broken promises from the Syrian regime,” she told reporters. “So we are really less interested in a signed piece of paper than we are in actions to implement commitments made.”

The Syrian opposition dismissed the agreement as a new stalling tactic and called instead for military intervention to stop Syria’s crackdown on a 9-month-old anti-government protest movement.

Shayetet 13 ‘Most Exemplary Brigade’ of 2011 – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

(These are Israel’s SEALs. – JW)

Shayetet 13

Israel news photo: Ziv Koren

Israel’s naval commando unit, Shayetet 13, has been chosen by IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz as this year’s “most exemplary brigade.”

The unit is the elite naval commando unit of the Israeli navy, and considered one of the primary special forces units of the IDF. Shayetet 13 specializes in sea-to-land incursions, counter-terrorism, sabotage, maritime intelligence, maritime hostage rescue and boarding.

One of Israel’s most secret military units, information about most of the activities of the brigade is generally kept highly classified, as are the details of its operatives.

Shayetet 13 was involved in the May 2010 flotilla incident over which Turkey has continued to demand an apology from Israel, and over which Ankara ultimately downgraded its diplomatic relations with Jerusalem.

Nine terror activists died in clashes with the unit’s naval commandos as they boarded to redirect the Turkish-sponsored Mavi Marmara to Ashdod port. Armed terror activists aboard the vessel attacked the commandos as they rappelled on to the ship.

The vessel was one of six in a “humanitarian aid flotilla” illegally attempting to breach Israel’s maritime blockade of Gaza that was later found to be carrying no humanitarian aid for Gaza residents whatsoever.

Three of the IDF naval commandos involved in the clashes were subsequently classified as “permanently disabled” as a result of the injuries sustained in the battle.

PM Hints Subway to Double as Mass Shelter? – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News.

Tel Aviv

Israel news photo: S. Cohen

Did the Prime Minister hint, in a Cabinet meeting earlier this week, that he wants Tel Aviv’s future subway stations to double as mass emergency shelters? If he did – IDF Radio seems to have had no compunctions about leaking and broadcasting the matter.

The military radio station’s website reported Tuesday that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu instructed Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz to “meaningfully increase” the number of subway stations planned for Tel Aviv despite their high cost, “for an unclear reason.”

When asked why he wanted the changes made, the Prime Minister answered with a Hebrew phrase that means, roughly, “Whoever needs to understand, will understand.”

The exchange occurred during the Cabinet meetingm when Netanyahu “suddenly” asked Katz to give a concentrated review of the plans for the subway, according to which most of the tracks will be on the street level and above it. Netanyahu opposed this vigorously and requested that most of the stations be constructed underground, even though Katz explained that this would make them much more expensive.

IDF Radio said that “Those present at the session had difficulty understanding why Netanyahu decided to demand a much more costly project than planned.” The Prime Minister “refused to give his reasons and started to demonstrate where the budget could be taken from.”

In addition, “an initiative was raised, to turn many underground parking lots into mass emergency shelters, so the sources who were present at the session understood the statement as expressing Netanyahu’s wish to advance the construction of the stations so that they could serve as additional public shelters in a possible missile attack.”

The report itself raises at least two troubling questions: If indeed Netanyahu wants the subway to double as a mass shelter but does not want to say so outright – why was the matter raised in a forum that was not a top-secret one? Did IDF Radio submit the report to military censorship?

Another question is — if the report is true, what kind of threat are the underground stations to guard against? Conventional missiles or unconventional ones?