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DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis December 19, 2011, 3:52 PM (GMT+02:00)

Flags of North Korea, China and Iran.

The sudden death of Kim Jong II, of a heart attack aged 69, Monday, Dec. 19 – even though his youngest son Kim Jong-un was hailed as successor – confronts the world for the first time since the Cold War with a leaderless nuclear power about which it knows almost nothing. Though anointed as heir, his youngest son Kim Jong-un, believed to be 26, is more than likely to be challenged for his claim to power. At present, therefore, no one knows who controls North Korea’s nuclear arsenal – any more than the identity of the country’s next ruler after the dust settles.
Meanwhile there are pressing questions: Will Kim Jong II’s successor follow through on his consent this week to suspend Pyongyang’s enriched-uranium nuclear weapons program for 240,000 tonnes food aid from Washington? How will the 1.2 million strong standing army of the North respond to the first actions of South Korea, Japan and US forces in the Far East in placing their armies on alert?
There has been no sign of motion from this huge army apart from test-firing a short-range missile Monday morning from the east coast.

This is almost certainly the calm before the storm. A year ago, Kim Jong Il began grooming his son for the leadership, the third of their dynasty, by appointing him Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Workers Party of Korea and conferring on him the rank of four-star general.
Still, he is as shorter on military experience than he is in politics. After the dead leader’s funeral on Dec. 28, the army, or parts therefore, will have to decide whether to continue supporting the Kim family’s rule in Pyongyang after 60 years or replace it with a different kind of leadership.
The prospect of uncertainty and change there sends shudders down many political spines in Washington, Tokyo and Seoul, as well as in Beijing and Moscow. In recent months, world powers were deeply immersed in the war threats hanging over the Middle East, Syrian bloodshed and Iran’s nuclear weapons momentum. Monday, they woke up to a completely unforeseen scenario, an unstable Far East state armed with a nuclear bomb which could take the region in any of five directions:

1. Elements of the North Korean army or its security services could go head to head for a power grab in Pyongyang, potentially sparking civil strife in this enigmatic nation of 24 million.
2.  To keep any such violence from spilling across its borders, China may send troops into North Korea bringing similar action from Seoul, possibly with US backing.. China has a large North Korean expatriate minority which respects Pyongyang rather than Beijing and is therefore a source of unrest.

Of the US troops stationed for 58 years on the armistice lines between South and North, about 28,500 remain and could be involved in a conflict with the potential of exploding into another Korean War. The first war in the 1950s cost several armies more than a million lives.
3.  The big difference between then and now is that today North Korea has nuclear arms and there is no knowing at what point someone in Pyongyang may decide to use them.
4.  A recent Pentagon situation paper estimates that if the Korean Peninsula descended into domestic anarchy and civil strike, the United States would be called on to raise an army of intervention numbering 400,000 soldiers, 100,000 more than the size of US forces fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan and the peak of those conflicts.
5. North Korea maintains thriving nuclear, military and technological relations with Iran and Syria. Hundreds of technicians and engineers, including nuclear and missile experts, have worked for years on their nuclear and missile programs.

Western and Israel intelligence services have never been sure how deeply China is involved in North Korea’s nuclear and military assistance to Iran and Syria.  Is it just passive? or does Beijing use Pyongyang as a channel for pumping nuclear technology to Tehran and Damascus?

Some Western agencies have recently come to believe that China has a bigger stake in those Middle East countries than realized and much of the military technology transferred by North Korea to Iran is actually of Chinese origin.
A power struggle in Pyongyang, which could be drawn out for as long as a couple of years, could go in many unpredictable directions including stepped-up contribution to the Middle East nuclear race.

Syria’s Opposition: What If We Offered Assad Immunity…? — Printout — TIME.

Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, listens to his national anthem during a welcoming ceremony at Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas, Saturday, June 26, 2010.

Fernando Liano / AP

It’s going to be a decisive week for Syria. The Syrian National Council (SNC), the de facto umbrella organization representing the country’s political opposition, is meeting in Tunis to try and get its house in order and formulate a plan to bring down the house of Assad. At the same time, the Arab League has given President Bashar al-Assad until Wednesday to stop dithering on its six-week-old proposal to end the violence and allow monitors into the country or — in a pronounced escalation — perhaps kick the matter up to the United Nations.

Even Russia, which has protected Damascus from censure at the U.N. Security Council, put forward its own draft resolution last week calling on all parties to end the violence, “including disproportionate use of force by the Syrian authorities.” Although Syrian rights groups bristled at Moscow’s language, which some activists said equated the killer and the victim, Western capitals saw an opportunity to make a deal with Russia. Iraq too, which has hemmed and hawed but largely leaned toward Assad’s side, sent a high-ranking delegation to Damascus on the weekend with its own peace initiative. (See photos of Syria’s ongoing protests.)

Still, regional and international efforts may be moot if the SNC doesn’t emerge from its weekend congress — the first such meeting of the 260 member body since it was officially announced in Istanbul on Oct. 2 — with something more than just the general statements outlined in the brief political program released in late November. It needs a clear and detailed plan to convince the international community that it has closed ranks and can be the government-in-waiting it claims to be.

Unlike Libya’s National Transitional Council, which received substantial international recognition almost from the outset, the SNC has yet to be confered such legitimacy by many foreign powers. The organization is plagued by internal bickering, criticism that it has an Islamist skew and, because of the many exiles in its ranks, is not representative of the protesters in Syria.

The three-day meeting in a five-star hotel in the resort town of Gammarth, north of the capital Tunis, has been cloaked in secrecy, with stringent security measures in place. Many SNC members were not even informed of the precise location of the conference until the very end, in a bid to stem leaks and keep the media out.

Still, according to several participants, the organization is expected to articulate what it wants from the international community, including a definition of the term, “international protection.” It was also readying an offer of immunity and exile to Bashar al-Assad. According to a draft proposal, he can leave the country to a destination of his choosing with full immunity and allow the military to take over in conjunction with the SNC — or else he would face the possibility of an internationally imposed humanitarian corridor which would become Syria’s Benghazi. It’s unclear how viable the “or else” clause is. Turkey, Syria’s once-close ally, has hinted at, but shown no real appetite to put its boots on Syrian ground. NATO has ruled out the option, and the U.S. — having just left Iraq and looking toward an Afghan drawdown as well — doesn’t want to plunge into another potential quagmire. (See why Syria’s opposition is struggling to get its act together.)

The real aim of the reported deal (assuming the SNC members can all agree to it), is to send Assad’s minority Alawite sect the message that they should unhinge their future from their President’s. “They have to let him go,” said a conference participant who had seen the three-page draft document. TIME was also given a copy.

The proposal asks Syria’s military establishment to refrain from attacking the so-called Free Syria Army (FSA), the band of defectors whose leader Colonel Riad al-Asa’ad is based in Turkey. The Syrian army should be “frozen” and announce its neutrality “in the internal political struggle.” The document also demanded all those with blood on their hands be tried.

It’s all going to be a tough sell. It’s unclear if protesters inside Syria, and all those who have lost victims at the hands of the military, would accept that after nine months of brutality, the same men in uniform who have terrorized them should take the helm of the country, regardless of whether or not the SNC is also part of the new regime. Bashar al-Assad, like his father and predecessor Hafez, also appointed co-religionists from his minority Alawite sect, as well as a select group of elites from other sects, to the top positions in the government and the military’s brass, ensuring a close-knit protective shield based on kinship and shared interests. A palace or military coup would bring the quickest, easiest end to the nine-month uprising, which has left at least 5,000 people dead, but the security forces, especially the military, have remained remarkably unified in their support of the regime.

Although there are reports of military defections to the FSA, the deserters have been mainly low-ranking Sunni officers and conscripts. Riad Al-Asa’ad recently met with SNC chief Burhan Ghalioun in a bid to present a united front to President Assad’s opponents, but the two groups differ in their strategies to bring down the regime. Ghalioun has insisted that the uprising remain peaceful, whereas the FSA has increasingly moved from defensive to offensive attacks on the military. The FSA was not represented at the Tunisian conference. “What for?” said one conference organizer, when asked about the rebels’ absence. “Riad al-As’ad is in charge of maybe five guys.” (See why Syria’s dissidents fear for their safety.)

“The FSA is an empty cardboard box,” said another participant. “It means nothing. And besides, if we want to try and win over the army, why would we bring the FSA here?”

Still, the FSA, unlike the SNC, has tremendous support inside Syria. There are increasing calls by protesters and defectors alike for weapons to take on Assad’s ruthless forces. Unless the SNC presents a viable alternative, the Syrian uprising may slip out of the political realm and into an all-out civil conflict, with dangerous sectarian undertones. “What difference can the SNC make if it gets international recognition and loses its legitimacy among the protesters? And what difference can the FSA make, if it fails to get all the emerging paramilitary groups to accept the authority of its Military Council and its leader?” Ammar Abdulhamid, a U.S.-based Syrian dissident who has been critical of the SNC said recently. Abdulhamid has criticized the SNC’s “lack of transparency” and claimed that several independent Syrians who wanted to attend the conference in Tunisia “as monitors” were not allowed in. “So long as SNC leaders remain more preoccupied with winning international recognition than they are with internal cohesion or outreach to their own people, they are destined to become as irrelevant and cut-off from realities as Assad is today,” he said.

‘Hundreds’ of North Korean Nuke Scientists in Iran – Global Agenda – News – Israel National News.

Natanz nuclear site guarded by anti-aircraft guns

Israel news photo: Wikimedia Commons

Hundreds of nuclear scientists from North Korea, whose leader Kim Jong-il died Saturday, are working in 10 different locations in Iran, The South Korean-based Korea Times reported this week.

North Korea has been known to be working closely with Iran, Pakistan and Syria on nuclear development, but the disclosure of the number of scientists in the Islamic Republic spells out the close ties between the two powers, part of what Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has called the ”axis of evil.”

The Korea Times quoted an unnamed source that the scientists and missile engineers are working at the Natanz and Qom sites, among others. Iran is operating a uranium enrichment plant at Natanz. Despite Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s denials, Israel and Western powers assume the objective of the enrichment plant is to use the uranium to build a nuclear weapon, while engineers try to build a missile capable of delivering it.

North Korea has an enrichment plant in its own country and has conducted nuclear tests. Both it and Iran are under United Nations sanctions for not cooperating with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors.

“The source with access to intelligence on the years-long weapons collaboration between Pyongyang and Tehran said the North Koreans are visiting Iran via third countries and many of them are being rotated every three to six months.” the newspaper reported.

“The North Korean experts are from the country’s so-called Room 99, which is directly supervised by the North’s ruling Workers’ Party Munitions Industry Department,” it added. ”The room, which can be translated as office or bureau, is widely believed to be engaged in exports of weapons and military technology.”

Israel to US: Impose oil embargo on Iran – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Deputy FM meets US under secretary of state to discuss Iranian nuclear, military threat; presents economic plan to sanction Iran without causing global price hike

Itamar Eichner

Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon met with United States Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman and Foreign and Defense Ministry officials on Sunday to discuss the ongoing Iranian nuclear and military threat and urged the US to impose an oil embargo on Iran, Yedioth Ahronoth reported.  

Sherman also met with the State officials during her official visit to Israel, including Mossad chief Tamir Fredo and National Security advisor Yaakov Amidror.

The Israeli officials presented Sherman with an economic model they believe would enable the US to impose an oil embargo on Iran’s oil without causing a global price hike. According to the model, the world’s biggest oil manufacturers, including Saudi Arabia, would be expected to increase production in order to reduce global dependency on Iranian oil supply.

“Israel and the US, with the international community’s cooperation, are determined to prevent – and will prevent – a nuclear Iran,” Ayalon said on Sunday.

American sources reported that after her visit to Israel, Sherman headed to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf emirates to see whether the Israeli plan has any chance of materializing.

Meanwhile, Israeli officials are attempting to get the biggest oil manufacturers on board so they might help set the plan into motion.

Ever since the last IAEA report was published, in which it was made clear Iran was hard at work to advance its nuclear capabilities, meetings between Israeli and US officials have become more frequent.

Just last month Ayalon headed a delegation which met in Washington to further the countries’ strategic dialogue on the burning issue. They met with David Cohen, the State Department’s under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence.

‘Syria will sign Arab League initiative … JPost – International.

Israel Matzav: BWAHAHAHAH! Hezbullah in ‘dire financial straits’.

What’s a terror organization to do? With Syria fighting a revolt against Bashar al-Assad’s rule and Iran straining under sanctions, Hezbullah, which is patronized by both countries, is going broke.

While Hezbollah General Secretary Hassan Nasrallah appeared to be in high spirits recently during a rare public appearance in a suburb of Beirut, his organization is experiencing a severe financial crisis, French daily Le Figaro reported over the weekend.

According to the article, which was based on information obtained by French intelligence agencies, the civil uprising against President Bashar Assad in Syria has significantly reduced the flow of money to the Lebanese terror group.

Moreover, the report said, Iran has recently cut its financial aid to Hezbollah by 25% due in part to the international sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program.

Le Figaro said the financial crisis has led some Hezbollah terrorists to deal drugs in north Lebanon. Just last week US prosecutors indicted a Lebanese national who they said led a massive international drug smuggling ring with links to Hezbollah.

The US Treasury and the FBI have banned American organizations from donating to Hezbollah, which is designated under US law as a terrorist organization.

Last month Nasrallah claimed Hezbollah had unraveled a web of CIA informants and officers in Iran and Lebanon. According to Le Figaro’s report, the network caused significant damage to the Shiite group.

Hezbollah’s financial woes are also the result of corruption, the report said. According to Le Figaro, the terror group’s investment manager had embezzled close to $1.6 billion.

Appointment of IDF’s new ‘Iran Command’ chief raises eyebrows – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

While the idea of the corps itself has broad support within the army, the same cannot be said about the choice of the man who is to lead it.

By Amos Harel

The decision by Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz to create a new army formation, to be known as the Depth Corps, followed recent recommendations issued by a team headed by Maj. Gen. Gadi Eizenkot. Eizenkot was tapped for the task last summer, after he completed his assignment as GOC Northern Command and began an educational leave of absence.

Maj. Gen. Shai Avital was named head of the new corps, which has already earned the somewhat overstated sobriquet “the Iran Command.” Israel already has a command for Iran affairs – the Mossad, which since the last decade has been doing the heavy lifting in the campaign against the Iranian nuclear threat. If there is any unit within the IDF that deals with Iran specifically it is the Israel Air Force, the main branch that will be called upon in the event of an Israeli attack on the country’s nuclear facilities.

	An IAF jet refueling an F-15, above Tel Aviv.
	Photo by: IDF Spokesperson

The new corps could, in the future, assist in mobilizing special forces in the Iranian context. More important, it will have the job of planning and leading operations in areas far beyond the borders, operations that are connected to the covert war against terror organizations (and, indirectly, against Iran ). One could imagine, for example, operations that have been ascribed to Israel, such as alleged IAF air strikes and special forces operations in Sudan, or the assassination of a Syrian general at his home in northern Syria.

Gantz instructed Eizenkot to assess recent developments and strategic shifts in the region to determine whether the IDF needed to make changes to its planning in response. In reviewing past assessments Eizenkot’s team, which comprised high-ranking officers and one senior Mossad official, it was discovered that the problem had been identified back in 1982, when a decision was made to create a depth corps at the General Staff level.

Implementation was delayed until 1986 as a result of the first Lebanon war. Maj. Gen. (res. ) Doron Rubin was appointed head of the unit, but fallout from the raid it orchestrated against Ahmed Jibril’s Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command in December, 1988, codenamed Operation Blue and Brown, shut down the command. Rubin stepped down and the remaining special operations unit was absorbed into the Northern Command.

Special operations

Eizenkot determined a need for a combined corps that could carry out operations far from the country’s borders. It had to be capable not only of linear battle, for example sending tanks from the Golan Heights in the direction of Damascus, but also simultaneous attacks, such as strikes against scattered rocket launch sites, each of which must be neutralized.

Eizenkot envisioned a relatively small unit of about 100 troops, some of whom were already serving in special operations, answering directly to the chief of staff but freeing both the chief and deputy chief of staff of the need to deal directly with the areas under the corps’ jurisdiction, which are technically their area of responsibility but in practice receive inadequate attention.

The jurisdiction of the district commands – north, central and south – generally extends only a few dozen kilometers beyond the border. In the Second Lebanon War commanders were reluctant to carry out depth operations in the Bekaa Valley. Col. Nitzan Alon, who last week was promoted to GOC Central Command, was eventually “borrowed” from his assignment in the West Bank to do the job.

The Depth Corps will have the authority to deploy special operations units when necessary, but under normal circumstances each unit’s chain of command will remain unchanged.

In wartime the new corps might be assigned a sector, movement into which would be controlled by the relevant district command. An entity whose entire scope of interest lies well beyond the border is already close to being established.

“What is happening today is that actions in the strategic depth area are largely the result of some momentary flash,” a senior officer who helped draft the recommendations told Haaretz. “An officer goes to Military Intelligence with an idea, and they start working on an operation. A corps headed by a major general will consider the threats methodically and continuously, and we hope it will lead to solutions and results,” he said.

While the idea of the corps itself has broad support within the army, the same cannot be said about the choice of the man who is to lead it.

Avital, 59, who will return to active duty for the assignment, has a long and impressive record in special operations as an officer in Sayeret Matkal, the general staff’s elite special-operations force, and later as its commander. But he left the army 10 years ago, of his own choosing, after just one rather undistinguished assignment as commander of a large unit. Since leaving the IDF he has tried his hand at farming, politics (he placed low on Kadima’s candidate list in the 2006 election and did not make it into the Knesset ) and public service (as a controversial director general of the Environmental Protection Ministry ).

Avital has a wealth of experience, but it is difficult to see how his resume in the past decade connects him to the technological advances of that period, to the nature of the activity he will oversee or the current crop of commanders. Perhaps the answer lies in the defense minister and chief of staff, his patrons.

No sign U.S. has given Israel green light to strike Iran – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News.

Barak’s entourage makes no comment on DM’s meeting with Obama; it seems Washington will take the stance of the Arab countries and Turkey into account in any decision on Iran.

By Amir Oren

Is it possible that the half-hour meeting last Friday at the Gaylord Hotel in National Harbor, Maryland, between U.S. President Barack Obama and Defense Minister Ehud Barkak will be remembered in Israel’s history as the moment at which Barack O. gave the green light to E. Barak – for better or for worse – to attack Iran? Can this be seen as a sort of flashback to the talk between Defense Minister Ariel Sharon and U.S. Secretary of State Alexander Haig in Washington in May 1982, that gave rise to the (mistaken ) Israeli impression that there was an understanding with the United States over going to war in Lebanon?

Defense Minister Barak’s entourage was tight-lipped, on returning to Israel Sunday. In other words, it made no comment. Of course, the members of the delegation would only know what they heard from one side of the Obama-Barak meeting, but such a secret could not be disclosed, even in a whisper. At first, it would only be reported to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

	U.S. President Barack Obama talks with Defense Minister Ehud Barak before delivering remarks at the 71st General Assembly of the Union for Reform Judaism, Dec. 16, 2011.
	Photo by: Pete Souza / Courtesy of the White House

A meeting between an Israeli defense minister and a U.S. president can be held for three reasons: to convey to the president confidential military or diplomatic information; to try to convince the president to change his policy; or to obtain information to update the assessment of the chances that he has been convinced about making some move.

The essence of such a meeting is the hope that the president will be influenced. If Barak hoped to convince Obama about attacking Iran in the coming months, there is still no apparent sign that he has been successful. One shouldn’t belittle the American president’s willingness to meet the defense minister, however.

Over the past several weeks, Barak has spoken to the top diplomatic and military leadership in the Obama administration: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and National Security Adviser Tom Donilon. It can be assumed that Barak was also given an opportunity to see the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, David Petraeus. All of them are important, but only Obama makes the decision. When Barak was not satisfied after dealing with them – he had his hearing before the final authority.

When it comes to the division of responsibility in Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, Barak is the liaison officer to the Democratic administration. Netanyahu is the liaison to the Republicans. The third decision-maker in Israel today, Foreign Minister Avigdor, deals with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

The Americans are in no hurry to befriend Lieberman. When it comes to Netanyahu, by virtue of his position and the prestige of his post when it comes to American Jewry, the Israeli prime minister is tolerated a bit more. But that leaves Ehud Barak as the interlocutor.

For his part, Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, does not suggest bombing the Islamic republic’s nuclear facilities, but rather building an international consensus around the fact that Iran’s conduct is unacceptable, before deciding how to deal with it.

This seems to mean that Washington will be taking the stance of the Arab countries and Turkey into account on the Iranian issue, so the decision is not simply one made between Washington and Jerusalem. The standard mantra that “all options remain on the table,” is beginning to sound more like a message to Israel than to Iran.

The proof as to whether Barak has been successful, however, will only be apparent during a later stage in the U.S. election campaign, when Obama faces his Republican opponent and the controversy over Israel, the Palestinians, Iran and the region really catches fire. And that may not be all that catches fire.

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 18, 2011, 10:48 PM (GMT+02:00)

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan

Extreme concern was quietly voiced Sunday, Dec. 18, by American and European official circles over the state of Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s health – and especially its impact on present and impending events in Syria and other parts of the Middle East, including Iran, debkafile‘s Western intelligence sources report. Those sources say Erdogan is suffering from Rectosigmoid cancer, but were not sure if it had reached the advanced Stage TIII (spread out of the colon to regional lymph nodes).

They also said they did not know what treatment he had received at the Istanbul hospital where he was first admitted and latterly at the Hacettepe Hospital in Ankara.

Sunday, Turkish Health Minister Recep Akdag, talking to local journalists, told them not to pay attention to the “gossip” that the hospital had prepared a special room for the prime minister to conduct affairs of state, but did not deny it. No denials were issued either of Turkish news reports about Erdogan undergoing “abdominal surgery ” on Nov. 26. They also reported that, since he was released, an air force ambulance helicopter had been standing outside his home.

According to reports flying around Ankara Sunday, which were neither confirmed nor denied, the Turkish prime minister is back in hospital.

debkafile‘s sources would only admit they are worried because the lengthy medical treatment he needs has already had an effect on the state of Middle East decision-making, especially in relation to the urgent Syrian crisis.

Thursday night, Dec. 15, Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul led a top military command council meeting in Ankara to review preparations for war on two possible fronts – Syria and Iran, if Tehran decides to come to Bashar Assad’s aid.

On Friday, the Turkish prime minister met US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta who flew in from Baghdad.

When Turkish journalists asked after his health, Erdogan replied: “I’m fine and I will be better.”

Our sources point out that whatever decisions were made at the Turkish military council conference and the consultations between Turkish and American security chiefs, Erdogan’s ill health was clearly uppermost in every mind in Ankara – and not only there.

In Washington, there is considerable anxiety. US President Barack Obama regards Erdogan as a personal friend and his senior ally in the execution of administration Middle East policies, especially with regard to Iran and Syria. The two leaders were recently described by insiders as having developed “intimate relations of trust.” According to some sources, they had at least 14 phone conversations in recent months.

The question asked in Washington is this: Is the Turkish leader in fit condition to continue to help the Obama administration carry forward their agreed plans in the region?

They were not encouraged by the comment heard from Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc while Erdogan was away from Ankara.

He chastised the ruling Justice and Development Party –AKP for “divisions… in Edrogan’s absence…” over a bill for regulating the nomination of party candidates.

Turkish pundits saw those “divisions” as symptoms of a power struggle already afoot over the Erdogan legacy.

And so the next day, Arinc admitted “he had made a very big mistake” in bringing the argument out in the open.
There were no comments in Israel on the Turkish prime minister’s medical condition.

Navy completing secret 2 year submarine upgrad… JPost – Defense.

    Israel will boost its long-arm strategic capabilities with the reinstatement of one of its Dolphin-class submarines that underwent an unprecedented structural overhaul.

The submarine, one of three currently in the navy, arrived in Israel in 1999 and is the first to undergo the mid-life renovation. The Israeli submarines, which were purchased from Germany, have an expected lifespan of 30 years.

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The submarine was taken out of service almost two years ago but the renovation was a carefully guarded secret in the navy so Israel’s enemies would not know that one of its three submarines was out of commission.

Now that it is heading back to sea and ahead of the graduation of the navy’s 100th Submariner Course, The Jerusalem Post was invited Sunday to tour the shipyard in Haifa where the submarine is being reassembled.

“Every vessel that comes in to the shipyard for maintenance and upgrades comes out with improved capabilities,” Col. Eli Shouach, commander of the navy’s shipyard, told the Post. “There are a select number of countries around the world which can independently renovate a submarine. Some have tried and failed.”

Israel’s submarines are the military’s most expensive platform and are often referred to as the country’s second-strike doomsday weapon due to their reported ability to fire cruise missiles tipped with nuclear warheads.

The three Dolphin-class submarines in the navy’s fleet are called Dolphin, Leviathan and Tekuma and are believed to be some of the most advanced diesel-electric submarines in the world. They replaced the 23- year-old Gal class submarines and in the coming years will be joined by two additional submarines currently under construction in Germany.

Maj. Doron Bareket, the officer in charge of the upgrades, said that the renovations include dismantling all of the submarine’s valves, pipes and sonar systems. The engine is also taken apart, cleaned and reassembled.

The submarine’s body is also cleaned and cracks in the hull are welded back together.

The entire upgrade is costing the navy close to NIS 100 million, the most expensive upgrade the shipyard has ever carried out.

With the expected arrival of two additional submarines in the coming years, the shipyard is also undergoing renovations to accommodate the new vessels and building new hangars, some of which will be protected from potential Hezbollah and Syrian missile attacks.

In related news, Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz decided Sunday to award the navy’s Flotilla 13 commando unit, better known as the Shayetet, the annual “Chief of Staff Award” for demonstrating impressive operational capabilities over the past year.

The Shayetet’s operations are almost all classified. One known operation from the past year included the seizure of the Victoria cargo ship that was transporting 50 tons of weaponry, including sophisticated Iranian-made anti-ship missiles, from Iran to Hamas.

Another group to receive the award was the Maglan unit, which like Shayetet is believed to specialize in covert operations behind enemy lines.