Archive for December 14, 2011

Obama, Arab allies eye no-fly zone that could ‘paralyze’ Syrian military

December 14, 2011

Obama, Arab allies eye no-fly zone that could ‘paralyze’ Syrian military | World Tribune.

LONDON — The United States has drafted a plan with its Arab allies to establish a no-fly zone over Syria.

Western diplomatic sources said the administration of President Barack
Obama has reached agreement with Saudi Arabia and other Arab allies to
impose measures meant to topple the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

An image from a video posted on the Internet purportedly shows demonstrators in Hama, Syria demanding a no-fly zone. /European Pressphoto Agency

“The no-fly zone does not have to be enforced throughout Syria, only in areas used by Assad’s military,” a diplomat said.

The sources said Washington and its Arab allies have concluded that a no-fly zone would result in immediate harm to the Assad regime and military. They said the plan does not envision NATO intervention, rather flights by the Turkish Air Force along with fighter-jets from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Under the plan, the United States would supply fuel, weapons and intelligence to maintain the no-fly zone. The sources said Turkish and Arab fighter-jets would challenge the Syrian Air Force as well as monitor Assad’s ground forces. Assad was believed to have control of no more than 40,000 soldiers, who comprised the army’s 4th Armored Division and the Republican Guards.

“The Syrian military can be paralyzed in less than 24 hours,” a European
source told the Kuwaiti daily Al Rai Al Aam on Nov. 22.

The sources said Turkey had been pressed by Washington to intervene to
stop the Assad attacks on the Syrian opposition, which resulted in more than
4,000 dead since March 2011. But they said Ankara demanded a NATO guarantee
that its members would send forces should Syria attack Turkey.

The no-fly zone plan was drafted as the rebels expanded operations
against the Assad regime. Many of the operations were attributed to the Free
Syrian Army, based in Turkey and commanded by Col. Riad Assad, not related
to the Syrian president.

FSA has been pressing Turkey to establish a no-fly
zone as well as a buffer zone along the border with Syria.

“FSA operations are still in the stage of defense,” FSA spokesman Maj.
Maher Naimi said. “This situation will remain until a no-fly zone and buffer
zone are established.”

Sources: Iran may soon start nuclear work in bunker

December 14, 2011

Sources: Iran may soon start nuclear work in bunker – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Equipment, nuclear material needed to begin higher-grade uranium enrichment installed at underground facility near Qom

Reuters

Published: 12.14.11, 17:31 / Israel News

Iran could soon launch sensitive atomic activities in an underground facility deep inside a mountain, diplomatic sources said on Wednesday, a development likely to add to tension between Tehran and the West.

Iranian experts have carried out the necessary preparations at Fordow near the holy city of Qom, paving the way for the Islamic state to begin higher-grade uranium enrichmentat the site on a former military base.

The machines, equipment and nuclear material needed have been transferred and installed at Fordow, the sources added, suggesting the work itself — until now conducted above ground at another location — could start when Iran takes the decision.

It coincides with a period of escalating tension between Western powers and Iran after a UN nuclear watchdog reportlast month said Tehran appeared to have worked on designing a nuclear weapon, and that secret research may continue.

The United States and its European allies have seized on the unprecedented document by the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to ratchet up the sanctions pressure on Iran, one of the world’s largest oil producers.

Enriched uranium can be used to fuel power plants, which is Iran’s stated aim, or provide material for atomic bombs if processed much further, which the West suspects is the country’s ultimate intention.

Proliferation expert Shannon Kile noted that Iran earlier this year announced it would shift its most sensitive enrichment activity to Fordow but that the actual start would still be significant.

“Obviously, for people who are concerned about Iran’s ability to break out and to enrich to weapons-grade this is a pretty good step along that route,” said Kile, of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Iran’s decision last year to raise the level of some enrichment from the 3.5% purity needed for normal power plant fuel to 20% worried Western states that saw this as bringing it significantly closer to the 90 percent needed for a bomb. Iran says the material will help fuel a research reactor.

‘We should not overestimate the progress’

Iran’s main enrichment plant is located near the central town of Natanz. But the country said in June it would shift its higher-grade activity to Fordow, offering better protection from any military attack, and also sharply boost output capacity.

A commander of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards was quoted by the semi-official Mehr News Agency on Wednesday as saying that Iran will move its uranium enrichment plants to safer sites if necessary, without elaborating.

The United States and Israel, Iran’s arch foes, have not ruled out military action if diplomacy fails to resolve the long-running nuclear dispute, which has the potential to spark a wider conflict in the Middle East.

Last month’s IAEA report said Iran had installed two cascades — or interlocked networks — of 174 centrifuges each at Fordow. Centrifuges spin at supersonic speeds to increase the fissile isotope ratio.

A cylinder of uranium hexafluoride gas — material that is fed into centrifuge machines to refine uranium — had also been transferred there, the report said.

Iran only disclosed the existence of Fordow to the IAEA in September 2009 after learning that Western intelligence agencies had detected it.

Tehran says it will use 20%-enriched uranium to convert into fuel for a research reactor making isotopes to treat cancer patients, but Western officials say they doubt that the country has the technical capability to do that.

Western experts say tightening sanctions, technical hurdles and possible cyber sabotage have slowed Iran’s atomic advances.

But it is still amassing low-enriched uranium and now has enough for 2-4 bombs, if refined much more, the experts say.

Iran has also stepped up development work of more advanced centrifuge models that would enable it to enrich uranium faster than with the breakdown-prone IR-1 machines it is now using, the diplomatic sources said.

At a research facility in Natanz, it has started feeding a network of some 160 so-called IR-2m centrifuges with uranium hexafluoride gas to test their performance.

If Iran eventually succeeds in introducing the more modern machines for production, it could significantly shorten the time needed to stockpile enriched uranium.

But it is unclear whether Tehran, subject to increasingly strict international sanctions, has the means and components to make the more sophisticated machines in bigger numbers.

“We should not overestimate the progress,” one source said, adding that Iran had tried to develop more modern centrifuges for several years.

‘Iran may launch new uranium enrichment facility’

December 14, 2011

‘Iran may launch new uranium enr… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

Mahmoud Ahmedinijad

    VIENNA – Iran could soon launch sensitive atomic activities in an underground facility deep inside a mountain, diplomatic sources said on Wednesday, a development likely to add to tension between Tehran and the West.

Iranian experts have carried out the necessary preparations at Fordow near the holy city of Qom, paving the way for the Islamic state to begin higher-grade uranium enrichment at the site on a former military base.

The machines, equipment and nuclear material needed have been transferred and installed at Fordow, the sources added, suggesting the work itself – until now conducted above ground at another location – could start when Iran takes the decision.

It coincides with a period of escalating tension between Western powers and Iran after a UN nuclear watchdog report last month said Tehran appeared to have worked on designing a nuclear weapon, and that secret research may continue.

The United States and its European allies have seized on the unprecedented document by the UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to ratchet up the sanctions pressure on Iran, one of the world’s largest oil producers.

Enriched uranium can be used to fuel power plants, which is Iran’s stated aim, or provide material for atomic bombs if processed much further, which the West suspects is the country’s ultimate intention.

Proliferation expert Shannon Kile noted that Iran earlier this year announced it would shift its most sensitive enrichment activity to Fordow but that the actual start would still be significant.

“Obviously, for people who are concerned about Iran’s ability to break out and to enrich to weapons-grade this is a pretty good step along that route,” said Kile, of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Iran’s decision last year to raise the level of some enrichment from the 3.5 percent purity needed for normal power plant fuel to 20 percent worried Western states that saw this as bringing it significantly closer to the 90 percent needed for a bomb. Iran says the material will help fuel a research reactor.

Iran’s main enrichment plant is located near the central town of Natanz. But the country said in June it would shift its higher-grade activity to Fordow, offering better protection from any military attack, and also sharply boost output capacity.

A commander of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards was quoted by the semi-official Mehr News Agency on Wednesday as saying that Iran will move its uranium enrichment plants to safer sites if necessary, without elaborating.

The United States and Israel have not ruled out military action if diplomacy fails to resolve the long-running nuclear dispute, which has the potential to spark a wider conflict in the Middle East.

IAEA report stated Iran moved advanced nuclear resources to Fordow

Last month’s IAEA report said Iran had installed two cascades – or interlocked networks – of 174 centrifuges each at Fordow. Centrifuges spin at supersonic speeds to increase the fissile isotope ratio.

A cylinder of uranium hexafluoride gas – material that is fed into centrifuge machines to refine uranium – had also been transferred there, the report said.

Iran only disclosed the existence of Fordow to the IAEA in September 2009 after learning that Western intelligence agencies had detected it.

Tehran says it will use 20 percent-enriched uranium to convert into fuel for a research reactor making isotopes to treat cancer patients, but Western officials say they doubt that the country has the technical capability to do that.

Western experts say tightening sanctions, technical hurdles and possible cyber sabotage have slowed Iran’s atomic advances.

But it is still amassing low-enriched uranium and now has enough for 2-4 bombs, if refined much more, the experts say.

Iran has also stepped up development work of more advanced centrifuge models that would enable it to enrich uranium faster than with the breakdown-prone IR-1 machines it is now using, the diplomatic sources said.

At a research facility in Natanz, it has started feeding a network of some 160 so-called IR-2m centrifuges with uranium hexafluoride gas to test their performance.

If Iran eventually succeeds in introducing the more modern machines for production, it could significantly shorten the time needed to stockpile enriched uranium.

But it is unclear whether Tehran, subject to increasingly strict international sanctions, has the means and components to make the more sophisticated machines in bigger numbers.

“We should not overestimate the progress,” one source said, adding that Iran had tried to develop more modern centrifuges for several years.

Iran seeks to calm Turkey over missile threats

December 14, 2011

Iran seeks to calm Turkey over missile threa… JPost – Headlines.


 

    ISTANBUL/TEHRAN – Iran’s foreign minister has told Turkey that threats by Iranian political and military figures to strike Turkish missile defenses if attacked do not represent official policy.

Ties between Turkey and Iran have been sorely tested by an uprising in Syria and Turkey’s involvement in NATO’s missile shield, which Tehran sees as a US ploy to protect Israel.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu telephoned his Iranian counterpart to express unease over recent threats to target Turkey if Iran comes under attack, Turkey’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Twitter.

“We have made the necessary warning to those who make irresponsible and senseless statements,” Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi told Turkey’s state-run Anatolian agency.

“The official view of the Islamic Republic of Iran towards Turkey is based on deep brotherhood and friendship,” he said.

Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei and the Iranian Regime vs. President Ahmadinejad – Part I: Messianic Group Threatens the Regime

December 14, 2011

Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei and the Iranian Regime vs. President Ahmadinejad – Part I: Messianic Group Threatens the Regime.

 

(This article reads like “Minutes From A Madhouse.”  But this is from MEMRI.  This is real. – JW)

Introduction

This paper is the first in a series of three dealing with the rift in Iran’s top echelon between Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, which emerged into the open in May 2011. This rift has important ramifications for Iranian politics and also for the shape that the country will take, as it veers between two ideological/political streams: the conservative Islamic revolutionary stream and the messianic Islamic revolutionary stream.

This first paper, Part I, will discuss the rift between the streams and the ideological/political challenge that Ahmadinejad, with the force of his personality and his messianic path, has thrown down to Supreme Leader Khamenei.

Parts II and III will discuss Khamenei’s response to the crisis. Part II will deal with the efforts by Khamenei’s associates, primarily in the six months before the rift became public in May 2011, to bolster the legitimacy of his regime by glorifying him and presenting him as an imam, while Part III will deal with Khamenei’s examination of the possibility of eliminating the presidency and replacing it with a parliamentary system, as a way of removing his rivals Ahmadinejad and Hashemi Rafsanjani.

The Rift in the Leadership: Khamenei vs. Ahmadinejad

Since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became president in 2005, he and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have been allies in political cooperation, in the framework of which the final political elimination of Iran’s reformist stream was carried out. Following that, it seemed that the ideological/revolutionary/messianic stream identified with Ahmadinejad (which is the rival of the conservative/traditional stream, including conservative opponents of Ahmadinejad in the Majlis, and senior officials such as Hashemi Rafsanjani, the Larijani brothers, and others) gained traction and legitimacy from Khamenei, though Ahmadinejad has been the target of ongoing criticism by his rivals in the Majlis since his election.

However, in May 2011, a serious rift between Leader Khamenei and Ahmadinejad was revealed in public; the clash was ostensibly over Ahmadinejad’s firing of Intelligence Minister Heydar Moslehi.[1] The worst of the criticism of Ahmadinejad came from those who had previously strongly supported him throughout his six years as president: Khamenei and Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi, considered to be Ahmadinejad’s spiritual mentor. Other prominent supporters who turned their back on Ahmadinejad were Guardian Council chairman Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati; Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the Iranian daily Kayhan; Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Ahmad Alam Al-Hoda, and many others who immediately fell into position alongside Supreme Leader Khamenei.

Following a week in May during which Ahmadinejad personally confronted Khamenei, the president dropped hints that he accepted Khamenei’s authority. However, confrontations between Ahmadinejad’s and Khamenei’s associates have continued. These include invective and threats, attempts in the Majlis to depose Ahmadinejad, reciprocal accusations of corruption and shutting down of media outlets, and arrests of associates of Ahmadinejad. From time to time, Khamenei intervenes to demand an end to the public quarrels.

Regime circles in Iran have gathered around Supreme Leader Khamenei, declared their allegiance to him, and revealed their main arguments against Ahmadinejad and his associates, whom they call “the deviant stream.” They claimed that both Ahmadinejad and his office director, father-in-law, and right-hand man Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei are members of a messianic sect that aspires to change the ideological infrastructure of the regime of the Islamic Revolution – that is, to do away with the doctrine of the rule of the jurisprudent (velayat-e faqih). The Khamenei loyalists warned that the messianic stream to which Ahmadinejad belongs believes that the direct relationship that Ahmadinejad claims to have with the Hidden Imam (the Mahdi, the Shi’ite messiah) – a claim supported by his associates – endows Ahmadinejad with the power to run the country with no need for the jurisprudent – i.e. Khamenei – since Khamenei’s role has become superfluous in light of this relationship.[2] It should be noted that some hint that Ahmadinejad communicates with the Hidden Imam via Rahim Mashaei.


Ahmadinejad’s office director Rahim Mashaei[3]

Reasons for the Rift

It appears that the background to the personal/ideological rift goes beyond the incident of the firing of Intelligence Minister Moslehi, which the Iranian media presented as its cause. Recently, the French news agency AFP stated that according to an intelligence report by a reliable country, the reason for the rift was President Ahmadinejad’s wish to publicly announce Iran’s military nuclear program, while Khamenei preferred that it be kept under wraps. In a May 6, 2011 article in the Washington Post, David Ignatius wrote that the clash erupted against the backdrop of an initiative by Ahmadinejad’s right-hand man Mashaei to establish an open dialogue with the U.S.[4] Another explanation concerns the personal threat that Khamenei senses in the face of the growing strength of Ahmadinejad and Mashaei, who are making messianic claims and announcing the Mahdi’s imminent appearance.

The Khamenei Camp’s Religious-Political Accusations vis-à-vis Ahmadinejad

Since Ahmadinejad’s views and actions regarding the appearance of the Mahdi have been common knowledge for some time, it seems that the religion-based claims being raised against him at this juncture are aimed at laying the groundwork for his removal. There have been instances in the Islamic and Iranian past in which a religious justification was formulated for a political rivalry – for example, when the Sunna and the Shi’a split, or when the Orthodox Shi’a faced down the Baha’i.

Following are some of the main recent accusations against Ahmadinejad and his associates:

Ahmadinejad Is Part of a Messianic Group that Threatens the Regime

Twelver Shi’a distinguishes between the “minor occultation” of the Hidden Imam (874-941 AD), during which he communicated with the community of Shi’ite believers by means of four deputies, and his subsequent “major occultation” (from 941 to the present day), during which he no longer communicates via deputies, and which will end with his final appearance.

Senior clerics Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi and Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, along with representatives of Khamenei in the various regime institutions, have said that Ahmadinejad and his fellow members of the “deviant stream” believe, based on the notions of the “minor occultation” and “major occultation,” that now is the era of the Mahdi’s “minor appearance,” in which certain individuals can once again communicate with him directly, and that as a result the community of Shi’ite believers no longer needs the “rule of the jurisprudent” in order to maintain a proper Islamic society. Moreover, the “deviant stream” believes that the Hidden Imam’s “major appearance,” when he appears and delivers the community of believers, will happen very soon.[5]

Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, head of the “Society of Lecturers and Researchers at Qom’s Theological Seminaries,” said: “Certain circles’ claims that they are communicating with the Hidden Imam are very dangerous, and the regime preachers must fight this with determination.” He warned that these circles had launched a struggle against the “rule of the jurisprudent” in the belief that the appearance of the Hidden Imam occurs in two stages: the “minor appearance” and the “major appearance.” They believe, he said, that now is the era of the “minor appearance,” in which several individuals have the ability to communicate directly with the Hidden Imam and to receive his instructions, with no need for the intermediary of the “rule of the jurisprudent.”[6]


Cartoon on the oppositionist website Rooz Online shows Ahmadinejad speaking at the UN General Assembly, with Mashaei advising him from the corner.[7] The halo is a reference to statement Ahmadinejad made in 2005; after speaking at the UN that year, he said that during his speech he had sensed that he was surrounded by a halo of light. Since then, Rooz cartoons have often depicted him with a halo, symbolizing his messianic pretensions.

Ahmadinejad Belongs to a Satanic Stream Working to Eliminate the “Rule of the Jurisprudent”; He’s Bewitched by Mashaei

In numerous recent interviews and speeches, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, considered Ahmadinejad’s spiritual mentor, attacked Ahmadinejad and what he calls the “deviant stream” to which he belongs. He said that Ahmadinejad is part of a deviant and dangerous stream that, on Satan’s advice, seeks to eliminate the “rule of the jurisprudent” and to set Ahmadinejad’s associates at the head of the regime.

In a speech in Qom, in early June 2011, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi said: “Recently, [members of the deviant stream] have been trying to instill [in society] the perception that [now, since] we can communicate with the Hidden Imam [directly], there is no longer any need for his representative [i.e. Khamenei]. Thus they completely undermine the principle of the ‘rule of the jurisprudent’…  This is a theory of Satan, and it is more destructive than any of his [other] activities.”[8]

Previously, in a May 19, 2011 speech at a conference of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Mesbah Yazdi said: “In recent years an insidious danger to society’s ideological base has emerged, and Satan is using all his attempts and cleverness to instill in it a deviant way of thought… Satan’s strategy is to weaken the status and sanctity of the Shi’ite clerics, which is the only path to weakening the strength of Islam and to distancing society from God… [The deviant stream] is trying to weaken the status of the regime of the ‘rule of the jurisprudent’ and to question the need for the jurisprudent ruler, by instilling a way of thought according to which the Hidden Imam is running the country. They claim that, according to this way of thought, ‘by spiritual connection [with the Hidden Imam,] we can achieve what the Hidden Imam wills, and run the country with no intermediary and without the need for experts on Islam.”

He continued, “The aim of this deviant thought is to instill in the future the perception that all the activities, plans, and service [to the public] during the present years have been carried out by one deviant man, the most prominent strategist in the world, and that we carried out every activity at his inspiration, and therefore he must be [reelected as] the next president and run the country… It is very dangerous that, in the name of Islam, and using the blood of the martyrs, and after we have suffered so many difficulties, some say that the [re]election of this man – who does not have a proper understanding of Islam or a clear past in the Revolution – is a phase in the appearance [of the Hidden Imam]… Even assuming that the chance that Satan does have such a plan is infinitesimal, we must pay attention, be wary, and show sensitivity and act correctly in the face of the [coming] events and fitna.”

Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi even hinted that Ahmadinejad has been “bewitched” by his office director Rahim Mashaei. He said that since his election, Ahmadinejad’s “weak points in the ideological and moral dimension” were “gradually revealed; things arose that are unjustifiable and that are completely illogical – lacking intellectual logic and religious, economic, or political explanation. The fact is that this man behaves in a way that angers [even] his closest friends and his most honest partners, and causes them to oppose him and stand fast against him. Such behavior is unacceptable for any statesman, by any logic… [The president] treats his most honest friends as if they are his enemies, as happened in his faulty actions in the firing of several ministers. At the same time, the question arose of whether this behavior is in line with this person’s [Ahmadinejad’s] personality… I told one of my closest friends that I think that there is a greater than 90% [chance] that he has been bewitched [by his office director Mashaei]. This situation is unnatural. No intelligent man does such things, unless his [self-]control has been stripped from him.”[9]


Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah Yazdi[10]

At a June 7, 2011 meeting with political activists, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi warned that members of the “deviant stream” had infiltrated centers of power in the regime, and called for “identifying this stream, which is dangerous to the regime and to Islam, and stopping its influence… Our red line is the ‘rule of the jurisprudent.’ We can cooperate within the regime only with those who accept this principle… It is a duty to struggle against anyone who intends to depose the regime and Islam… If we do not fight everyone who we know is planning betrayal [of this principle], we will sin, and [one day] we will have to explain why we did not do our duty after we saw [the actions of] the deviant stream… This dangerous stream has a defined plan to sidetrack every sector of society [from the ‘rule of the jurisprudent’]. We must be alert and must do our duty.”[11]

The Deviant Stream – More Dangerous than All Previous Deviations in the Shi’a

In a June 21, 2011 speech in Qom, Mojtaba Zolnour, representative of Khamenei in the IRGC (who has since quit his post because he seeks to run in the March 2012 Majlis elections), said: “The deviant stream thinks that [now], at the end of days, the ‘major occultation’ has become the ‘minor occultation,’ and that during this phase of the occultation, people are able to communicate with the Hidden Imam. Ahmadinejad thinks that Mashaei is communicating with the Hidden Imam [and insists on clinging to Mashaei].”

Zolnour explained that the Ahmadinejad government had invited Jordan’s King ‘Abdallah and Yemeni President ‘Ali ‘Abdallah Saleh to Tehran because “the government believes that the fact that two ‘Abdallahs are heads of Arab states is a sign of the imminent appearance [of the Hidden Imam]… Ahmadinejad praised ‘Ali ‘Abdallah Salah and said, ‘You bear the names of three of the imams, and of the Prophet [Muhammad].’ This stream believes that Jordan’s King ‘Abdallah is Sufyan, who is a harbinger of the [imminent] appearance of the Hidden Imam, and so they wanted to take him to the hot [springs] of Sareyn during his visit to Iran, so that the signs that according to tradition appeared on the loins and shoulders of Sufyan would appear on the body of the king.”

Zolnour continued: “Several days before the anniversary of the death of the Imam [Ayatollah Ruholla Khomeini], Mashaei said that on June 4 and 5, 2011 something would happen that would silence the critics. He meant that on June 4 he [Mashaei] would become a martyr and his soul would ascend [to heaven], and that on June 5 the Hidden Imam would appear. After these declarations, members of this [deviant] stream went to obtain a visa to Saudi Arabia, because they wanted to be in Mecca alongside the Hidden Imam when he appeared.”[12]

In another speech, Zolnour explained that it was wrong to assume that the situation would resolve itself once Ahmadinejad disassociated himself from his office director Mashaei: “Ahmadinejad and Mashaei are like Siamese twins. An operation to separate them would be futile, [because] they would die. Ahmadinejad cannot be separated from Mashaei…” Zolnour added, “The public atmosphere is not suited to taking measures [against Ahmadinejad], so patience is needed; however, the deviant gang cannot be allowed to do as it pleases.”[13]


Khamenei’s  representative to the IRGC, Mojtaba Zolnour[14]

In a June 6, 2011 interview with the Iranian news agency Mehr, Zolnour said: “This contemporary deviant stream seeks to weaken the foundations of the Islamic regime… It is more dangerous than all previous deviations in Shi’ite history, and even more dangerous than the Hojjatieh Society[15]… It is even more dangerous than the reformists, because they fought religious expression openly, announcing that the Islamic regime was ineffective, and every day took an explicit anti-religious stance…

“But the deviant stream covers its face with a hypocritical religious mask, and it has access to the [centers of] power and capital, and therefore it is more dangerous… The heads of the deviant stream have linked their fate to the president [Ahmadinejad], and I hope that this relationship will unravel, though it is highly unlikely that such a split [between Ahmadinejad and this stream] will happen very quickly… As long as these people are in the government, it will not be purged of the deviant stream.”[16]

The Ahmadinejad of 2011 Is Not the Ahmadinejad of 2005

In an interview with the Shama weekly, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi renounced his previous support for Ahmadinejad: “In the 2005 presidential election, someone [Ahmadinejad] whom no one had expected rose to power… How did this happen? One of the elements influencing [this event] was the [campaign] slogans that he revived 30 years after the victory of the Islamic Revolution. I don’t want to judge whether he held a deeply rooted belief [in the Islamic Revolution] or not, but it seems that he raised the slogans and the people believed them…”[17]

Other senior ayatollahs also renounced Ahmadinejad, claiming as reasons for doing so his involvement in corruption scandals and in advancing a policy of nationalism at the expense of Islam. In an interview, Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Abu Al-Qassem Ghazali, who had once been considered a patent supporter of Ahmadinejad, told the Iranian daily Javan, which is identified with the IRGC, that he supported the Ahmadinejad of 2005, but not the Ahmadinejad of 2011. He said that Ahmadinejad had shown modesty at the beginning of his presidency, but that today he was tied to and influenced by people who were looting the state treasury.[18] Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, head of the Qom Lecturer’s Society, warned about Ahmadinejad’s advancement of Iranian nationalism, calling it a serious deviation because the Iranian people is first and foremost Muslim, and only after that Iranian.[19]

Ahmadinejad Wants to Remain in Power Even after His Second Term Is Up

While the objections of Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi and others to Ahmadinejad were religious in nature, Abbas Salimi-Namin, chairman of the Center for Studies on Contemporary Iranian History, accused Ahmadinejad of seeking to remain in power in contravention of the constitution. Salimi-Namin, formerly an Ahmadinejad supporter, said that, under the influence of his associates, Ahmadinejad had been persuaded that he was the sole savior of the regime and was for that reason acting to remain in power even though, under the Iranian constitution, a president may serve only two consecutive terms. Salimi-Namin added that the “deviant gang” to which Ahmadinejad belonged was exploiting the peoples’ belief in the appearance of the Hidden Imam in order to obtain votes from religious circles. He said further that the president’s circles were interfering in the Majlis elections, and that they intended also to interfere in the next presidential election.

In a May 18, 2011 interview with the Iranian news agency Fars, Salimi-Namin said: “In the Ahmadinejad government are several who think that, in light of the great service that they have done for the revolution [i.e. the regime] and in preventing deviation [i.e. suppressing the reform movement], they shouldn’t leave the arena – because if they do, the government will fall into the hands of people who are less committed to the [regime’s] principles. Such a sense of obligation… is nothing but an excuse… It is the result of the flattery that filled them with the idea of remaining in power…”[20]


Abbas Salimi-Namin, chairman of the Center for Studies on Contemporary Iranian History[21]

Referring to Fateme Rajabi, the wife of Guardian Council member and Ahmadinejad associate Gholam-Hossein Elham, who called Ahmadinejad the “miracle of the third millennium,” he continued: “The sycophants created in Ahmadinejad the thought that without him the state would fall into to serious deviation… Without a doubt, Mrs. Rajabi is among the inexperienced political elements affecting the president’s imagination. Along with Fateme Rajabi were other sycophants, who gradually built up their own status around Ahmadinejad and expanded their influence over him. These cronies in the government made several statements that doubtless fired Ahmadinejad’s imagination. They called him the reviver of the revolution and of its values. They… persuaded him that all the values [of the revolution]… had been lost, and that he had gotten the revolution back on track. These blandishments have harmed the president; today he feels that the ground must be prepared for him to remain in power, with the excuse that without him [as president] the revolution will again deviate from its path.

“Under the Iranian constitution, Ahmadinejad can serve as president for only two terms, and after that he must allow the nation to enjoy the talents of other qualified individuals in it. But apparently Ahmadinejad doesn’t like that, and he is trying to remain in power and considers the law and the Supreme Leader to be standing in his way; he is marching on an unworthy path…  This interpretation, i.e. that the country will prosper only if Ahmadinejad remains [in power]… is mistaken… The delusion to which Ahmadinejad has fallen victim stems from the significant activity of the sycophants around him, and that is why he is closing his eyes to numerous transgressions that this gang is committing…

“The deviant gang is exploiting the people’s religious beliefs to advance its own goals – that is, to obtain their votes. The religious forces in our society have a significant belief in the Hidden Imam, and therefore the gang announces its proximity to the Hidden Imam in order to acquire the vote of this [religious] circle… Because this group has been met by the uncompromising opposition of the law and the leader [Khamenei], it is trying to influence the Majlis elections and, later, [also] the presidential election. Ahmadinejad must distance himself from his mistaken belief that he is the savior of the revolution, and that without him the country will have a problem…”

The “Deviant Stream” Is Linked to the Freemasons and the Jews; They Must Be Fought Like the Baha’i

Especially noteworthy is a statement by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi comparing the “deviant stream” to the Baha’i in Iran. In a speech in Mashhad, he called for fighting determinedly against Ahmadinejad’s “deviant stream” and mentioned that the “Baha’i stream arose following a false claim of communication with the Hidden Imam.”[22]

An article on the Basirat website, which is identified with the IRGC, stated that the “sect of Mashaei” was linked to the Freemasons, which it called a secret organization founded in the 18th century to prepare the way for a Jewish takeover of the world. The article added that there was a great similarity between the Freemasons in the world and the leaders of the deviant stream in Iran, in statements and in actions. For example, it said that “a hidden bias in favor of Judaism” was evident in the 2008 statements of Mashaei praising the Iranian people’s friendship with the people of the U.S. and of Israel, and also evident in Ahmadinejad’s defense of Mashaei following this incident and his claims that Mashaei’s statements were in keeping with the government’s view. The article called for taking Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi’s warning seriously, because “the danger that he senses is the worst that has ever threatened Islam.”[23]

Khamenei Takes Action Against the “Deviant Stream”

After regime officials allied with Supreme Leader Khamenei against Ahmadinejad,[24] a May 16, 2011 article in the IRGC weekly Sobh-e Sadeq assessed that Khamenei would move to put an end to the “deviant stream,” which it called “The New Hojjatieh,” in a reference to Ayatollah Ruholla Khomeini’s actions against the Hojjatieh group in the early 1980s. The article explained that the term Hojjatieh is applied to the “deviant stream” because, like the Hojjatieh, this stream seeks to reject the concept of the “rule of the jurisprudent” and to fight the Supreme Leader. The article implied that the tolerance that has heretofore been shown towards this dangerous group, which claims that its divine power emanates from its relationship with the Hidden Imam, originates in Khamenei’s desire to give Ahmadinejad another chance to distance himself from it. Following are excerpts from the article:[25]


Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei[26]

“Recently, several political and religious activists are warning… about the danger of the formation of a deviant sect, sometimes called ‘the New Hojjatieh’… The ideological and religious roots of this group are indeed inspired by the Hojjatieh Society. According to the beliefs of this gang, the Hidden Imam is on the brink of appearing. [They also believe that] thus far, Islamic governments [under Khomeini and Khamenei] were called governments of the oppressed and were run in an ordinary manner – but now is the era of the ‘governments of justice,’ in which the right of leadership is given to those who possess the special power [of communicating with the Hidden Imam]… According to this belief, the interim period, [namely the period of] the rule of the jurisprudent… has ended, and [now,] the goals of the government of justice are accomplished by special individuals who have unique divine power…

“This group acts like the Hojjatieh Society, and uses rhetoric that relates to Mahdist beliefs and the appearance [of the ‘Hidden Imam’] in order to cover up its deviant goals… This group uses terms like justice, anticipation [of the appearance of the ‘Hidden Imam’], rule, and world management, and presents several of its actions as though they were guided by the Hidden Imam or as rulings issued or inspired by him.”

The article explained, “Initially, the Imam [Khomeini] was silent regarding the old Hojjatieh, but he broke his silence after its clear deviations and sentenced it to historical isolation… And today, the new Hojjatieh group has also been sentenced to isolation and expulsion… due to its lack of a serious dogmatic and social [foundation]…

“It seems that one of the causes for the restraint and for the absence of immediate measures against the group… was [the desire] to give a chance to the deceived people, whom this group meant to exploit in order to hijack the regime and circumvent the Supreme Leader and the pure Islam. Defending these individuals, minimizing defection, and convincing the people are all [goals] that require patience and intelligence, of which the Leader [Khamenei] is a worthy model. As are we, the leader’s soldiers.”


Khamenei to Ahmadinejad: “If it’s up to me, I’ll vacuum you up even before the regime becomes parliamentary”[27]

Mashaei Responds to the Accusations Against Him

Rahim Mashaei responded to the accusations against him in a May 25 press conference at the IRNA news agency, attended by the agency’s director and advisor to Ahmadinejad, Ali Akbar Javanfekr (an attempt was later made to arrest him). Mashaei rejected the attacks on him and claimed that his views were inspired by the founder of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, who pitted the pure Islam rooted in Iran against American Islam. According to Mashaei, Tehran must declare that Iran is the center of Islamic culture, and that anyone who wants to study Islam must therefore come there. He explained that the attacks on him are actually aimed at Ahmadinejad; after the latter’s rivals realized that he enjoys wide public support, they preferred instead to attack his associate.

Regarding statements by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, Mashaei said: “They exaggerated to the point of claiming that [I] put a spell on the president. Some of these people, who hold positions [in the regime], came to me and said, ‘before this meeting, we were advised to be careful because Mashaei is a sorcerer who casts spells’ … They [critics of the government] said, ‘though he has been repeatedly warned of Mashaei, Ahmadinejad does not listen, [which means that] Mashaei has cast a spell on him and made him into his disciple…’

“Ahmadinejad is a prominent religious conservative figure, who embodies the epitome of piety, struggle, justice, and service. They can do nothing against him, so instead they direct their criticism at [me], but Ahmadinejad told them that they were wrong and that he trusts [me]. If they speak out against Ahmadinejad, they will lose everything, since they rose [to power] thanks to him. Without him, who would have chosen them? They owe [their status] to his terms as mayor [of Tehran] and [president] during the ninth government.”

Mashaei added: “If Ahmadinejad is banished from the conservative camp, nothing will remain. Ahmadinejad supports the beloved Leader [Khamenei] in terms of policy and state governance, and will not submit to the unjust demands of his rivals, who cannot speak out against him and therefore say that Mashaei has cast a spell on him… If Mashaei is a sorcerer, then why don’t you break [the spell] and why are you afraid? Is there no one among you who can break Mashaei’s spell and save Ahmadinejad from him?”[28]


Ahmadinejad, with halo, threatens to blow up Iran with his nuclear aspirations[29]

*A. Savyon is Director of the Iranian Media Project; Y. Mansharof is a research fellow at MEMRI.

Endnotes:

[1] See MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No. 685,  “Following Ahmadinejad-Khamenei Rift, Khamenei Bolsters His Status as Iran’s Supreme Leader,” May 2, 2011, http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5244.htm.

[2] Senior security official Masoud Jazairi explained that the term “deviant stream” applies to anyone who questions the principle of the rule of the jurisprudent. Mehr (Iran),  June 14, 2011.

[3] Image source: Fars (Iran), October 23, 2011.

[4] The Washington Post (USA), May 6, 2011.

[5] A similar explanation was given by Khamenei’s representative in the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Mojtaba Zolnour (hawzahnews.ir, June 21, 2011), by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi (rasanews.ir, May 19, 2011), and in a Sobh-e Sadeq article on May 16, 2011.

[6] Jihannews (Iran), August 3, 2011; Rasanews.ir, July 7, 2011. It should be noted that the claims are based on statements by Ahmadinejad and his associates about his relationship with the Hidden Imam.  On this topic, see also:

MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 1328, “Iran President Ahmadinejad: ‘I Have a Connection With God, Since God Said That the Infidels Will Have No Way to Harm the Believers’; ‘We Have [Only] One Step Remaining Before We Attain the Summit of Nuclear Technology’; The West ‘Will Not Dare To Attack Us,'” October 19, 2006, http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/1914.htm; MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No. 357, “The Doctrine of Mahdism: In the Ideological and Political Philosophy of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Mesbah-e Yazdi,” June 4, 2007, http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/2217.htm.

[7] Roozonline.com, September 25, 2011.

[8] Mehr (Iran), June 3, 2011

[9] Fararu (Iran), May 14, 2011.

[10] Image source: IRNA (Iran), September 28, 2011.

[11] Fararu, Javan (Iran), June 7, 2011.

[12] Hawzahnews.ir, June 21, 2011.

[13] Mehr (Iran), June 21, 2011.

[14] Image source: IRNA (Iran), December 4, 2011.

[15] An Iranian messianic group that claimed to have direct contact with the Hidden Imam, and was outlawed by Ayatollah Khomeini in the early 1980s.

[16] Mehr (Iran), June 6, 2011. .

[17] Rasanews.ir, May 19, 2011.

[18] Javan (Iran), July 31, 2011.

[19] Jihannews (Iran), August 3, 2011.

[20] Fars (Iran), May 18, 2011.

[21] Image source: Fars (Iran), October 24, 2011.

[22] Rajanews (Iran), July 23, 2011.

[23] The article stated further that elements from the Hojjatieh Society were involved in the current fitna, and that the “deviant stream” was exploiting the belief in the appearance of the Hidden Imam (intidhar) and various superstitions regarding the End of Days, as evident from a CD named “The Imminent Appearance [of the Hidden Imam],” in whose production the deviant stream was involved.  Basirat (Iran), August 3, 2011.

[24] An example is IRGC Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari’s support of Khamenei. At a Basij conference he said, hinting at Ahmadinejad, that the higher a man’s position, the more exposed he is to the danger of moral corruption, and added: “If we don’t fight the [deviant] spirit, pride will take us over and, according to the Koran, Satan will take us over and we will leave the path of truth… Khamenei’s prudent management resolved the latest crisis and removed the worry from the hearts of regime supporters in the face of several doctrinal and political beliefs [that have taken hold] among Ahmadinejad’s associates. The efforts and good management by the leader [Khamenei] prevented this incident from becoming the main focus of the country, though it will remain in the minds of most of the regime’s supporters, and will not be expunged. Fararu (Iran), May 28, 2011.

[25] Sobh-e Sadeq (Iran), May 16, 2011.

[26] Image source: IRNA (Iran), October 17, 2011.

[27] Roozonline.com, October 17, 2011.

[28] IRNA (Iran), May 28, 2011. Mahramaneonline.com, which is close to Mashaei, mocked Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi’s statements and wondered why his knowledge as an ayatollah did not help him break the spell. Mahramaneonline.com, May 16, 2011.

[29] Roozonline.com, October 17, 2011.

Iran propositions Saudis, seeks anti-US pact, offers nuclear cooperation

December 14, 2011

DEBKAfile, Political Analysis, Espionage, Terrorism, Security.

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 14, 2011, 12:22 PM (GMT+02:00)

 

Saudi Crown Prince Nayef receives Iran’s Heidar Moslehi

A large Iranian delegation led by Intelligence Minister Heidar Moslehi visited Riyadh Monday, Dec. 12 and put a proposition before Crown Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz: Why not bury the Saudi royal house’s historic feud with the ayatollahs of Tehran and form an anti-US and anti-Zionist pact for leading the Middle East? The Iranians boasted that after the seizure of America’s top secret drone technology by a successful cyber attack they must now be accepted as the superpower of the region.

Prince Nayef agreed to receive the delegation following a request from the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Moslehi is one of his closest advisers and a leading antagonist of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who was not told about the visit.

debkafile‘s Iranian sources report that the Iranians pushed hard for a partnership with the Saudis on such issues as oil, Iraqi, Syria, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Yemen, on most of which Tehran and Riyadh are in direct collision. Saudi Arabia spearheads the Persian Gulf emirates’ campaign to establish a bloc of Sunni Arab kings and rulers to fight off Iranian expansion and the influence of the Shiite Hizballah and Syria.

The visitors to Riyadh pointed out that a Saudi-Iranian axis in the region would be strong enough to freeze out American and Turkish meddling in the Arab Revolt. It would draw its strength from the combination of Iranian military, intelligence and nuclear capabilities on the one hand and Saudi power and wealth on the other. For the sake of this pact, Moslehi said, Tehran was willing to share its nuclear program with Riyadh.

The Moslehi delegation represented high-ranking Iranian military and intelligence chiefs, while Prince Nayef was attended by the heads of Saudi intelligence services, including Director of General Intelligence Prince Muqrin bin Abdul Aziz.

The two figures conspicuously absent were the top men orchestrating the Arab Revolt and Iraq from opposite sides of the table:  Saudi National Security Adviser Prince Bandar bin Sultan and commander of the Iranian Al Qods Brigades, Gen. Qassem Soleimani.

Bandar heads the apparatus funneling weapons, money and fighters to the Syrian opposition fighting President Bashar Assad, Tehran’s senior ally, while Soleimani leads the counter-campaign for keeping the Assad regime extant.
Nevertheless, the Iranian visitor is reported by debkafile’s sources as explaining to his Saudi hosts that an understanding between them had been reached before and could be reached again. He referred to the May 2008 agreement on Lebanon known as the “Doha Accord,” under which Iran, the Persian Gulf states and Syria agreed that the Lebanese crisis would end without winners and losers but with a power-sharing arrangement granting representation to all the country’s adversarial forces, including Hizballah.

Tehran saw no reason why the same principle could not be applied to the Syrian crisis. The bloodshed and the horrors of civil war could be saved by bringing the opposition factions into the Damascus government.

In return for these understandings, Moslehi proposed an Iranian-Saudi deal for the future of Iraq following the American withdrawal. Iran, he said, was willing to guarantee the rights of Iraq’s Sunni community and their participation in Nouri al-Maliki’s government in Baghdad.

Turning to the nuclear issue, debkafile’s military sources report the Iranian intelligence minister maintained that Tehran and Riyadh needn’t be rivals or develop separate nuclear programs, as proposed last week by Saudi Arabia’s former intelligence chief, Prince Turki al-Faisal. Turki said that if Iran continued with its weapons of mass destruction program, the Persian Gulf states (including Saudi Arabia) would have no choice but to develop their own. Tehran, said Moslehi, was ready to open up its nuclear program, like its space program, to Saudi participation.

Our sources report that Crown Prince Nayef promised to bring the Iranian proposals before the king and senior princes and have an answer ready soon.

But Riyadh was ready sooner than expected with a response. Before even addressing their overture, Nayef acted to take the Iranians down a peg or two from their self-appointed military and intelligence superpower status.

In a broadcast Tuesday, the day after the Iranian visit, the Saudi television network Al Arabiya attributed the explosion at the Moadarress Iranian missile base in the Malard region west of Tehran on Saturday, December 10, to an assassination plot against Ayatollah Khamenei (which was first reported by DEBKA-Net-Weekly 519 on Dec. 2).

Khamenei’s son Mojtaba and senior Revolutionary Guard officers were described in the broadcast as having been detained and questioned in connection with the plot.

This TV item informed Tehran exactly how high the Saudis rate Iran’s regional standing and the stability of its government.

Analysis: Word of caution on Assad’s fall

December 14, 2011

Analysis: Word of caution on Assad’s fall – JPost – Middle East.

Syrian President Bashar Assad

    Defense Minister Ehud Barak was reported this week as predicting that the regime of Bashar Assad would fall within weeks.

Certainly things are not going well for the Assad family dictatorship. The bloodletting continues as the Free Syrian Army and other insurgent groups continue to strike at government forces. Economic sanctions endorsed by the Arab League are to take effect December 27. The economy is expected to sharply contract in the year ahead, in the wake of EU sanctions already in place and the collapse of the tourism industry.

And yet, observers should be careful before confidently predicting the imminent fall of the house of Assad. They have being doing so since April, but the dictator is still there. Notwithstanding his recent absurd performance on ABC News, he may well be with us for some time to come. The factors that have kept him in place so far largely remain.

Firstly, the Assad regime is not friendless or isolated, despite the sanctions. Most importantly, its Iranian strategic partner is still there.

The mullahs stick by their allies. The Iranians have been providing material, advice and possibly also personnel to help Assad’s bloody fight against his own people since it began. This patronage has just been publicly reaffirmed and shows no sign of tailing off.

Russia and China are still there too. Their support is preventing any effective response to the bloodletting from coming through the UN Security Council.

Syria maintains its friends in the Arab world, too. The Maliki government in Iraq is developing as a close ally and trading partner.

In line with its orientation toward Iran, Baghdad voted against the Arab sanctions on Damascus. Hezbollah in Lebanon, of course, depends on Assad’s survival to maintain its strategic position. So Assad is not alone.

Secondly, the half-hearted Arab League “protocol” for resolving the issue is intended largely to prevent a more determined international response.

The Arabs do not want to see another Western military intervention into the heart of the Arab world. The League’s plan is intended to prevent this, by pretending to represent an alternative Arab road to reform in Syria. It is, meanwhile, bogged down in endless quibbling and prevarication over the issue of Arab observers in Syria.

Even if Assad were to agree to these, they would make no discernible difference. Leaving the Syrian issue in the hands of the Arab League means leaving Assad in power.

Thirdly, Assad’s security forces, despite the large number of desertions, remain structurally intact. In the Syrian Arab Army the dictator possesses large and effective instruments of suppression, including the four large security services and the amorphous and brutal gathering of Alawi gunmen known as the “Shabiha.”

By contrast, the opposition remains divided and unsure of its strategy. Its armed capacity, while determined, is vastly smaller and less powerful than that available to the dictator.

Political power, ultimately, derives from superior force.

The Syrian opposition lacks this, and hence possesses no mechanism for seizing power.

It also remains divided against itself, with the main political and armed wings disagreeing over tactics, and a number of smaller political groupings declining to accept the authority of the Syrian National Council.

So reports of Assad’s demise have been much exaggerated.

If things are left as they are, the prospect in Syria is for a bloody civil war, the outcome of which remains uncertain.

The move that could change this would be an internationally backed establishment of a buffer zone in northern Syria, and sponsorship and training for the opposition. This would provide ground and cover for the growth of a coherent political and military challenge to Assad. It does not look immediately imminent.

Short of this, despite the latest optimistic predictions, Assad will probably be around for a while yet.

Holiday Greeting’s From Iran: Grim, Cynical and Desperate

December 14, 2011

Holiday Greeting’s From Iran: Grim, Cynical and Desperate.

by Austin Bay
December 13, 2011

Iran’s tyrannical regime has sent the world what passes for a holiday greeting in contemporary Tehran — a grim and cynical threat.

This week, a member of Iran’s National Security Committee intimated that Iran would soon demonstrate that it could close the Strait of Hormuz to oil tanker traffic. Paryiz Saryari, a member of Iran’s sham parliament, added this bit of rhetorical fire: “If the world wants to make the region (i.e., Iran) insecure, we will make the world insecure.”

The Strait of Hormuz connects the oil-rich Persian Gulf region to the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. Closing the Strait to shipping effectively imposes a naval blockade on the Arab states along the Gulf’s littoral. That’s grim, for it amounts to waging war on several US allies, including Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

It gets grimmer. On any given day, some 30 percent of the globe’s seaborne oil supply sails through the geographic choke-point; thus closing the Strait threatens international energy security.

Missiles and mines bolster Saryari’s bombast. Iran possesses sufficient military forces to seal the channel. Anti-ship mines, high-speed anti-ship missiles and torpedoes pose the biggest problems. Iran also has a few submarines. Strikes by suicide aircraft and swarm attacks by suicide speedboats are possible.

Yes, this is a grim scenario, and in the looming future grimmer still, once Iran’s Khomeinist despots possess nuclear weapons — which they don’t, not yet … we hope.

Cynics argue that the ayatollahs’ cynicism, which is as amply evident as is their corruption, will keep Hormuz open. Immediately following Saryari’s threat, world oil prices spiked three to four dollars. Iranian government oil traders, given a heads-up that the verbal threat was coming, could have made millions, with the cash lining a Revolutionary Guard officer’s pocket, or an ayatollah’s robe, or going into an account to illicitly purchase nuclear weapon detonators.

An uncertain logic undergirds this cynical read. The ayatollahs know that actually closing the strait amounts to a self-blockade. Iran’s major oil-exporting seaports lie on the Persian Gulf (e.g., Kharg Island). The regime buys what domestic peace it enjoys with oil money. Choke the strait, and the ayatollahs strangle themselves. So they won’t do it, if economic logic overrides theological millenarianism.

Economic logic, however, does not guide the ayatollahs’ nuclear quest. If they ditched their nukes, sanctions would end and the threat of U.S. or Israeli attack would drastically diminish. Yet the centrifuges continue to spin; so do threats to annihilate Israel. Last month, Iran threatened to attack missile defense radar sites in Turkey.

The grim consequences of closing Hormuz are why Western and Persian Gulf Arab militaries are prepared to defend the strait, break any Iranian blockade and clear the strait of mines.

The grim consequences of Iran’s regime acquiring nuclear weapons are why U.S. spy drones scrutinize Iranian nuclear facilities and why mysterious bomb blasts (Mossad at work?) plague Iranian labs. It appears the Obama administration has finally understood that negotiations and sanctions won’t halt the quest and that the Bush administration was right — the ayatollahs are hellbent on nukes. So the Obama Administration has decided to wage a covert war on Iranian nuclear capabilities.

That alone, however, does not explain the desperate quality of Iran’s recent belligerency. Domestically, the regime survives by threatening its people with its street thugs and secret police. Syria’s dictatorship (an Iranian ally) has failed to crush its rebels with these brutal tools.

That seeds desperation in Tehran, but Tunisia may be a bigger source of concern.

As Hussein Ibish noted at NOWLebanon.com, recent “bickering” among Tunisian parliamentarians was delightful because “there was no monarch, no dictatorship, no junta or oppressive military, no killings, no militias, no riots and no hint of civil conflict, foreign interference or invasion” present. Another democracy is emerging in a culturallyIslamic society. It’s fragile, but for Iran’s tyrants, it is to be feared.

Iran lawmakers pass Syria free trade bill

December 14, 2011

Iran lawmakers pass Syria free trade bill – Israel News, Ynetnews.

Assad’s regime receives show of support from Islamic Republic with free trade bill between the two countries

AFP

Iran‘s parliament on Tuesday passed a bill for a free trade agreement with Syria in a show of support for President Bashar al-Assad‘s regime beset by protests and international pressure.

The bill provides for free trade between Iran and Syria within the next five years, according to Iranian state television.

Both countries are subject to international sanctions on their economies. The bill was introduced into parliament as an emergency procedure by Iran’s government.
אסד ואחמדינג'אד בשנה שעברה, שיתוף פעולה עוקף סנקציות  (צילום: איי אף פי)

Iran’s Ahmadinejad and Syria’s Assad (Photo: AFP)

Allaedin Boroujerdi said the proposed pact was “a firm response” to the United States and its allies “investing billions of dollars to change the political structure of the Syrian government.”

Syria is Iran’s main ally in the Middle East.

The co-chiefs of a bilateral economic cooperation commission — Iran’s urban development minister, Ali Nikzad, and Syria’s economy minister, Mohammed Nidal al-Shaar — met in Damascus on Tuesday, Syria’s official SANA news agency reported.

“Iran stands next to Syria and remains committed to developing bilateral relations,” the Iranian minister said upon arrival in Damascus, according to SANA.

‘Rev. Guards detained in Khamenei murder plot’

December 14, 2011

‘Rev. Guards detained in Khamenei murder p… JPost – Middle East.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei waves

    Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hoseyni Khamenei has ordered the arrest of a number of senior members of the Revolutionary Guards he suspects of planning to assassinate him, pan-Arab news Channel Al Arabiya reported Tuesday.

Khamenei demanded an investigation of the detainees, “and others,” about the alleged assassination plot, an “informed source in Iran” told the Emirati news station.

According to the source, “some of those” detained had invited Khamenei to come and visit the same weapons depot near Tehran where a large blast killed 17 people, among them the head of Iran’s ballistic-missiles program.

Khamenei was invited to visit on Novemeber 12, the same day as the blast, according to the Al Arabiya report.

Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei’s son and an ardent supporter of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, was one of the officials that was arrested, according to the report.

The explosion at Bidganeh, near the city of Karaj, was the first of three mysterious blasts to occur in Iran in the last few months.

Khamenei survived an attempt to assassinate him in 1981 which paralyzed his right arm.